Illinois Tool Works Q1 2024 Earnings Report

Illinois Tool Works EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $2.44
• Consensus EPS: $2.35
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.09
• One Year Ago EPS: $2.33

Illinois Tool Works Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $3.97 billion
• Expected Revenue: $4.03 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$56.45 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -1.10%

Illinois Tool Works Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2024
• Date: 4/30/2024
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, April 30, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Illinois Tool Works (NYSE:ITW) (ITW) is a diversified industrial manufacturer that designs and produces a broad array of engineered products, consumables and related service solutions for industrial customers. Its offerings span engineered fastening systems, specialty components, industrial equipment, welding products, foodservice and packaging equipment, adhesives and polymer products, and test-and-measurement technologies. These products are used as critical inputs by customers across automotive, construction, electronics, foodservice, maintenance and other industrial end markets.

The company operates a decentralized business model in which independently managed businesses focus on niche product lines and close customer relationships. ITW emphasizes innovation, application engineering and aftermarket support, pairing manufacturing with field service, replacement parts and service contracts. It also uses a portfolio-management approach that prioritizes the highest-value products and customers, enabling operational efficiency and targeted product development.

Founded in the early 20th century, ITW has grown through a combination of organic investment and acquisitions to build a global footprint and a large portfolio of specialty businesses. Over its history the company has become known for disciplined capital allocation and a managerial philosophy that empowers local business leaders while leveraging shared corporate resources and best practices.

ITW serves customers worldwide across the Americas, Europe, Asia and other regions, supplying industrial distributors, original equipment manufacturers and end users. The company is governed by a board of directors and an executive leadership team responsible for corporate strategy, operations and compliance. Its combination of diversified product lines, decentralized operations and customer-focused engineering has made it a consistent provider of industrial solutions across multiple sectors.

Illinois Tool Works Q1 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Organic revenue declined 0.6% in Q1 with five of seven segments down amid challenging demand and tough comparisons, but management continues to target full-year 1–3% organic growth.
• Excluding a one-time inventory accounting item, operating income rose 4% and operating margin expanded 120 basis points to 25.4%, driving GAAP EPS up 17% to $2.73 (5% ex-item) and free cash flow conversion of 68%.
• A one-time change from LIFO to FIFO inventory accounting in U.S. operations generated a $117 million pre-tax benefit (≈$0.29/share), prompting a higher GAAP EPS guide but leaving operational outlook unchanged.
• Geographically, China led growth—organic up 6% with Automotive OEM +23% and ex-OEM +7%—while Europe grew 1%, offsetting North America’s 4% decline.
• Full-year guidance remains intact with expected operating margin of 26–27%, GAAP EPS raised to $10.30–$10.70 (including $0.30 from Q1 accounting change), and free cash flow conversion above 100%.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning. My name is Krista, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the ITW Q1 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad, and if you would like to withdraw your question, press the star 1 again.

[Operator]

For those participating in Q&A, you will have the opportunity to ask one question and, if needed, one follow-up question. Thank you. Erin Linnihan, Vice President of Investor Relations, you may begin your conference.

[Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thank you, Krista. Good morning and welcome to ITW's Q1 2024 Conference Call. Today I'm joined by our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy, Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Larsen, and Vice President of Investor Relations, Karen Fletcher. During today's call, we will discuss ITW's Q1 financial results and provide an update on our outlook for full year 2024. Slide two is a reminder that this presentation contains forward-looking statements.

[Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

We refer you to the company's 2023 Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the SEC for more detail about important risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. This presentation uses certain non-GAAP measures, and a reconciliation of those measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measures is contained in the press release. Please turn to slide three, and it's now my pleasure to turn the call over to our President and CEO, Chris O'Herlihy.

[Chris O'Herlihy, CEO at ITW]

Thank you, Erin, and good morning, everyone. While the near-term demand environment across the majority of our segments was certainly challenging as we anticipated, the ITW team delivered a solid start to the year as our Q1 results came in as expected, and we remain solidly on track to deliver on our 2024 performance targets. Starting with the top line, organic growth was down 0.6% as five of seven segments declined in the face of a tough demand environment and versus some difficult comparisons year-over-year.

[Chris O'Herlihy, CEO at ITW]

Those comparisons are more favorable for the balance of the year, and based on current levels of demand, we are confident that we will deliver on our full-year performance targets, including organic growth of 1%-3%. The ITW team continued to execute at a very high level and delivered strong margin and profitability performance in the Q1.

[Chris O'Herlihy, CEO at ITW]

Excluding a one-time inventory accounting item, quarterly operating income grew 4% as operating margin expanded 120 basis points to 25.4%, with a strong contribution from Enterprise Initiatives of 140 basis points as we continue to make solid progress towards our goal of 30% operating margin by 2030. GAAP EPS of $2.73 increased 17%, and excluding the one-time item, we grew EPS 5% to $2.44. The free cash flow conversion rate of 68% was in line with normal Q1 levels.

[Chris O'Herlihy, CEO at ITW]

Looking ahead, where we did raise our GAAP EPS and margin guidance for the year to account for the one-time item, our operational guidance remains unchanged. We continue to expect that current levels of demand across the majority of our end markets and favorable year-over-year comparisons will translate to positive organic growth through the balance of the year. Combined with our continued strong margin and profitability performance, we are confident that ITW is firmly on track and well-positioned to deliver on our 2024 guidance.

[Chris O'Herlihy, CEO at ITW]

In concluding my remarks, I want to thank all of our ITW colleagues around the world for their exceptional efforts and for their dedication to serving our customers with excellence and driving continuous progress on our path to ITW's full potential. I will now turn the call over to Michael to discuss our Q1 performance in more detail as well as our updated full-year guidance. Michael.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Thank you, Chris, and good morning, everyone. In Q1, we delivered a solid start to the year with some high-quality execution in a pretty challenging demand environment as expected. Despite an organic revenue decline of 0.6%, operating income grew 4%, and operating margin improved 120 basis points to 25.4%, as enterprise initiative contributed 140 basis points. EPS increased 5% to $0.244, excluding a one-time item.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Our free cash flow was $494 million, and we repurchased $375 million of our own shares during the quarter as planned. GAAP EPS increased 17% to $0.273, and operating margin expanded 420 basis points to 28.4%. As you saw this morning, our GAAP results include a one-time LIFO inventory accounting change that resulted in a favorable pretax impact of $117 million to cost of revenue, equal to $0.29 a share.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

In Q1, we made the decision to transition from the LIFO to FIFO inventory accounting method for all of our U.S. businesses because it is a more consistent and simpler method for valuing inventory across our operations. In summary, Q1 results were as expected in the current environment, and growth rates are projected to improve as we go through the balance of the year. Our margin and profitability performance continues to be strong, and we're solidly on track to deliver on our guidance, which I will discuss in a few slides.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Please turn to slide four for a look at organic growth by geography. As you can see, the 4% decline in North America was partially offset by positive growth internationally as Europe grew 1% and Asia-Pacific grew 6%, led by China up 15%.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Excluding the 23% growth rate in our Chinese automotive OEM business, organic growth in China was still up 7%. For the full year and per our usual process, which is based on current levels of demand, we expect organic growth of 1%-3% in both North America and Europe, with Asia-Pacific up in the mid-single digits, led by China.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Moving on to segment results and starting with the automotive OEM segment, which delivered solid organic growth of 3% despite North America being down 6% as Europe grew 2% and China grew 23%, driven by continued strong penetration and market share gains. For the full year, we continue to expect solid above-market growth with our typical penetration gains of 2%-3% and continued outgrowth in China.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Margin and profitability performance was strong as margins improved by 370 basis points to 19.8%, and enterprise initiatives contributed more than 200 basis points. We continue to make solid progress on the margin enhancement plan in this segment, and we are firmly on track to deliver margins in the low to mid-20s by 2026, which you will recall is what we said we would do at our Investor Day last year. Turning to slide five, food equipment organic revenue declined 1% as expected against a tough comparison of +16% in the Q1 last year.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Equipment was down -4% and service grew +3%, and by region, North America declined -2% due to a particularly difficult comparison of +21%. On a positive note, the retail business was up +10%, fueled by new product launches, and overall, North America order activity in Q1 was pretty encouraging across the board.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

International revenue was flat, with Europe down -1% and Asia-Pacific up +6%. While five of our seven segments improved their margins in Q1, food equipment margins declined modestly to 26% as a result of focused capacity investments to support and accelerate continued above-market organic growth in our very attractive service business. Looking forward, we expect margins to continue to improve sequentially as we go through the year.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Turning to test and measurement and electronics, organic revenue was down modestly as test and measurement grew 2% despite a tough comparison of +12%. Electronics was down 8% due to challenging near-term demand trends in electronic assembly. The recent MTS acquisition continues to perform well and grew more than 20%. With margins that are improving but still in the mid-teens, this created a mixed headwind for the segment and diluted segment margins by about 250 basis points.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Looking ahead, we expect test and measurement and electronics margins to improve from here as we go through the balance of the year. Moving on to slide six, and as expected, welding faced a tough demand environment and year-over-year comparison of +10%, which resulted in a decline of 3% in Q1. Equipment declined 2%, and consumables were down 6%. Industrial sales declined 1% versus an 18% comparison, and the commercial side was down 6%.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

By region, North America declined 3% against a comparison of +10%, and international declined 8%. On a positive note, operating margin improved 80 basis points to 32.7% with a solid contribution from enterprise initiatives. Organic revenue in polymers and fluids declined modestly as automotive aftermarket was down 2%, and both fluids and polymers were essentially flat in the quarter. On a geographic basis, North America declined 5%, and international grew 5%, led by China.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Operating margins improved 140 basis points to 25.8%. Turning to slide seven, near-term demand trends in construction products continue to be challenging on a global basis as organic revenue declined 7% in Q1. North America was down 3% as the residential and renovation business was down 1%, and international markets remain soft as Europe was down 11% and Australia and New Zealand was down 12%.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

On a positive note, operating margin improved 190 basis points to 29.4%, driven primarily by another solid contribution from enterprise initiatives. Finally, specialty products organic revenue growth was up 6% due primarily to the timing of large equipment orders in two European businesses. As a result, international was up 19% and North America was down 1%.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

As we have talked about before, we're working to reposition the specialty segment for consistent above-market organic growth, which involves some strategic portfolio work and more significant product line simplification as we go forward. Operating margin improved 410 basis points to 29.7%, driven by operating leverage and a solid contribution from enterprise initiatives. With that, let's move to slide 8 for an update on our full-year 2024 guidance.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

With Q1 results that were right in line with our expectations, we're solidly on track to deliver on our 2024 performance targets and guidance. Looking ahead and starting with the top line, we do see some positives in terms of stable demand, more favorable comparisons year-over-year as we move forward, a normalized pricing and inflationary environment, new product launches, and no meaningful headwind from inventory destocking.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Per our usual process, our organic growth guidance of 1%-3% is based on current run rates adjusted for typical seasonality. Operating margin is expected to improve by 140 basis points at the midpoint to a range of 26%-27%, which includes more than 100 basis points contribution from enterprise initiatives and 50 basis points from the one-time item in Q1.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

As I mentioned on our last call, every segment is projecting to improve their operating margin performance again in 2024 with another solid contribution from enterprise initiatives across the board. After-tax return on capital is expected to remain firmly above 30%, and we expect strong free cash flows again with conversion greater than net income.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

As you saw this morning, we raised our full-year GAAP EPS guidance to a new range of $10.30-$10.70, which now includes $0.30 of EPS from the Q1 inventory accounting change. Setting that item aside, our operational guidance remains essentially unchanged as we expect a combined headwind of about $0.30 from higher interest expense, currency, and income taxes with an expected tax rate in the range of 24%-24.5%.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

In terms of cadence for the year, we expect our first half, second half EPS split to be about 50/50 this year as we factor in the one-time item in the Q1, which compares to our typical split of 49/51, so slightly less back-end loaded than usual.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

To wrap things up, as expected, the ITW team continues to execute at a very high level in a challenging near-term demand environment, which we anticipate will improve as we go through the balance of the year based on current levels of demand and more favorable comparison. In addition, our Q1 results came in as expected, and we are solidly on track to deliver on our 2024 guidance. On a separate note, today is Karen Fletcher's last ITW earnings call.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Over the last six years, Karen has been instrumental in articulating ITW's unique and differentiated competitive advantages and our plan to leverage them to their full potential to you, the investment community, in a clear and compelling manner. In doing so, she has helped us position ITW as one of the world's highest-quality, best-performing, and most respected industrial companies.Please join Chris and me in thanking Karen for her many contributions to ITW and wishing her all the best in retirement.

[Karen Fletcher, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thank you, Michael. That means a lot, and it's been a privilege to do that.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Thank you, Karen. With that, Erin, I'll turn it back to you.

[Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thank you, Michael. Krista, will you please open the line for questions?

[Operator]

At this time, I would like to remind everyone to ask a question, press star then the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for a moment to compile the Q&A roster. Please, as a reminder, limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. Your first question comes from Jamie Cook from Truist Securities. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Jamie Cook, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Hey, good morning and congrats, Karen, and thanks for all your help over the past six years.

[Karen Fletcher, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thank you.

[Jamie Cook, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

So, I guess my first thanks, Karen. My first question on the food equipment side, I think, Michael, you noted some positive order activity in North America. If you could just speak to what you're seeing there and then how much of a margin headwind was the capacity investments that you spoke about. And then my follow-up question just on specialty, I know you spoke to taking portfolio actions in PLS.

[Jamie Cook, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

If you could just give a little more color there, where are you taking actions and how much is that how much is PLS, I guess, a headwind to organic growth within specialty for the year? Thank you.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

I think that was four questions in one, Jamie. Well done.

[Jamie Cook, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

I know, but I've got four quarters, so I get more.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

I'm going to try my best here. So the comment on food equipment, I think for many of our segments, if you take a step back, these growth rates are a little unusual for us, which is really driven, as we said, by these really significant comparisons, challenging comparisons that we're dealing with, including in food equipment.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

So the additional color, even though we're not necessarily a backlog-driven company, was directed around the order activity in North America, which grew double-digit in the Q1 here and which I think gives some additional credibility to what we were saying is that we are expecting a return to more typical growth rates here, including in food equipment, as we go forward. The margin pressure, the margin impact, is about 100 basis points in food equipment here in Q1 and Q2.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

And it's really as a result of taking advantage of a huge growth opportunity that's sitting right in front of us in our service business. So what we're talking about is adding a significant number of service technicians to help us meet the demand in one of the most attractive parts of our food equipment business.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

And as you know, we're the only captive OEM with a service business, which is a huge competitive advantage for us in this segment. So I think those were the two questions around food equipment. I don't know if you want to add anything to that, Chris.

[Chris O'Herlihy, CEO at ITW]

No, I just, I guess, accentuate the point of the differentiation aspect of the service business within food with the unique captive manufacturer. And this is a necessary investment at this point to capitalize on what is an undoubtedly stellar growth opportunity on the service side for us.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Then on specialty, the organic growth rate here was really driven by large equipment orders and the timing around those in two of our businesses in Europe. What we're trying to articulate is on a go-forward basis is that we still expect meaningful PLS, product line simplification, as we move forward and strategically reposition this business for 4% plus growth on a consistent basis.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

And so we still expect a meaningful impact from that as we move forward. And I think kind of what we're saying is don't count on 6% organic growth as we move forward. We had guided to this segment and on last call to be down 1%-3%. And so please keep that in mind. And the same is true for the margins.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

I mean, I think with what you're seeing here on the margins is what happens when we get some growth in these businesses and the operating leverage here contributing in a meaningful way to 29.7% operating margins in the specialty segment. I think that is not on a go-forward basis, that's Q1. Both growth rate and margins are a little bit of an anomaly, and I think we expect to return to more still very profitable margins kind of in the high 20s, but maybe not something that starts with a 29.

[Jamie Cook, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities]

Thank you. Congrats again, Karen.

[Karen Fletcher, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thanks, Jamie.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Tami Zakaria from JP Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Hi, good morning. First off to Karen, I'll definitely miss you, but I wish you all the best of luck. Welcome aboard, Erin. Looking forward to working with you.

[Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thanks, Tami.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

So my first question is just wanted to get a little color here. I think you expect organic growth to be positive throughout the balance of the year. Does that mean you expect Q2 organic growth to be within that full-year range of 1%-3% growth?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

So, Tami, as you know, we don't give quarterly guidance. What I will tell you to try and help you out here a little bit is that if you model kind of current levels of demand or run rate, as we call them, into Q2, and what we're typically seeing is a step up in revenues in the low single digits from Q1 to Q2. And in automotive OEM, actually, a meaningful improvement in the builds from Q1 to Q2, an increase in the low to mid single digits there as well.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

So you will see a slightly higher revenues in Q2. And given that the comparison gets easier on a year-over-year basis, we're up 5% in Q1 last year, up 3% in Q2, it is certainly possible that we'll see slightly positive organic growth here in Q2.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

The more meaningful step up really starts in the second half of the year, which is kind of what's implied in our guidance here. Think about it maybe as kind of flat-ish in the first half, maybe slightly positive in Q2, and then an improvement in the second half of the year as the comparisons year-over-year improve by 4 points relative to the first half of the year. In the second half last year, revenues were essentially flat, and at current run rates, you'd expect to see positive organic growth rates in the low single digits in the second half.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

I might just add, for those keeping track, that there are two extra shipping days in the second half this year compared to the second half last year, which at least mathematically should provide some additional revenue growth for us.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Got it. That's very helpful. My second question is similar to the first one, but on the margin side. I think that in the Q1, you had $117 million tailwind. That's about 70 basis points tailwind for the full year, but you raised the full-year guide by about only 50. And the Q1 margin also came in a little better than what most people on the street were modeling.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Just trying to understand, as we think about the next three quarters, is there any incremental cost pressures or maybe price cost headwind than originally thought, or is it just pure conservatism that you raised the full-year guide by only 50 basis points?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Well, what I would say, Tammy, is that we're really pleased with our Q1 operational performance here, as you saw in the margin rates. And if you exclude the one-time item, 140 basis points from initiatives, 120 basis points of overall margin expansion, and margins at 25.4% is a pretty significant accomplishment here for the Q1. And we do expect, as we typically do going through the year, that margins improve sequentially from here on out.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

So you should see a modest improvement sequentially from Q1 to Q2 and then again into Q3 and Q4. The only thing I would highlight as you think about the Q2 is, as we typically similar to last year, we do expect some higher restructuring expense in the Q2. And these are all projects that are tied to our typical 80/20 front-to-back projects.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

These are not tied to any concerns around volume growth whatsoever. I don't want you to think that. This is pure planned restructuring for the Q2. As I said, just real quick on Q1 again, five of seven segments improved margins in the current environment, including with revenues down in five of seven segments. We expect, based on consistent with our bottom-up planning process here for the full year, that every segment will improve margins as we go through the year and on a year-over-year basis.

[Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan]

Great. Thank you. This was very helpful.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Sure. You're welcome.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Steve Volkmann with Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Steve Volkmann, Senior Research Analyst at Jefferies]

Great. Good morning, everybody. Karen, I can add my congratulations, and we will miss you. Erin, welcome. I'm impressed that you already have Karen's cadence down so well, so it will be seamless.

[Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thank you.

[Steve Volkmann, Senior Research Analyst at Jefferies]

Can I ask a little bit about China? That seemed to be a bit of an outlier there, I guess quite a bit of that automotive, but even without that, things seem to be relatively good. Any color you can give us on that?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Yeah. I think as you point out, Steve, the big driver is obviously our automotive OEM business, up 23%. And the team there is doing a great job growing content on new vehicles, including on the EV side, and gaining market share. Even excluding those, as I said, China was still up 7% year-over-year. Strong contribution from polymers and fluids. Some of that is tied also to market share gains on the EV side of things and the bonding of some of these batteries in the assembly process where we have a really unique and differentiated product.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Specialty products also contributed. Test and measurement grew and food equipment. So across the board, really solid performance in China. And moving forward, we'd say that looks pretty sustainable as we go into Q2, and then the second half, the costs get a little bit more difficult.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

But as I said, for the full year, China should be up in the mid- to high-single digits here, which is certainly encouraging. And again, I think speaks to kind of the benefit of being as diversified from a geography standpoint as we are. And so certainly some challenges in the Q1 in North America, but offset in Europe and in China, which is really a big benefit for us.

[Steve Volkmann, Senior Research Analyst at Jefferies]

Super. Thanks. And then the follow-up is on automotive margins. Obviously, going well there, and I think you said 200 basis points are better than 200 basis points of enterprise there. And I'm just trying to get a sense of how we should think of the cadence in auto margins as the year progresses. And I don't know, maybe the exit rate or the total year enterprise something.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Yeah. I mean, I think I wouldn't expect a lot of regression from where we are. These are absolutely sustainable here in the 19%+ range. And I think that's probably where we'll end up for the year. Maybe a little bit better in the back half. Some of that depends on the build assumptions.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

There might be a little bit of restructuring here in the Q2. But big picture, I'd say automotive, really solid progress here on a year-over-year basis. We expect full-year margins in that 19% almost 20% range, an improvement of 240 basis points on a year-over-year basis, and lots of room to go as we work through our margin enhancement plan.

[Chris O'Herlihy, CEO at ITW]

Yeah. And Steve, I suppose just to support that, I mean, this is very much an improvement plan that's on track to get back to the low- to mid-20s margins by 2026 as we outlined at our investor day, largely through a combination of over that time volume recovery, enterprise initiatives, and higher margin innovation. So both in 2023 and again in 2024, we're very much tracking on that cadence with respect to what we outlined at investor day last year.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Yeah. Nothing unusual in terms of the margins in Q1 and sustainable with lots of room for improvement from here.

[Steve Volkmann, Senior Research Analyst at Jefferies]

Super. Thank you.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

You're welcome.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citi Group]

Hey. Good morning, everyone. Karen, congratulations. We'll miss you.

[Karen Fletcher, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Hey. Thanks, Andy.

[Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citi Group]

So Michael, probably I'm guessing you don't want to reset your organic growth guides for your segments every quarter, but just higher level. You had Construction Products. Specialty Products had to be down, I think 1%-3% while all the other segments were projected to be up between 2%-4% and 3%-5%. Specialty Products was actually much better. Does that change the segments outlook at all? I know you talked about a little bit of a pull forward in some equipment orders. And were any of the other segments weaker than you thought to start?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

I think, Andy, you're right. We don't want to update our guidance for the segments every quarter. What I will tell you is, given our portfolio, there's always going to be some puts and takes. I think that's, again, I just talked about the competitive advantage with being as diversified as we are geographically.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

The same is true when you look at this portfolio of businesses. You're always going to have some things that maybe are a little more pressured from a market standpoint in the short term. Those are typically offset by segments that are performing a little bit better. It all kind of evens out to that 1%-3% organic growth guidance.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

I'm not really going to go through segment by segment here, but I'd say there's definitely some puts and takes, but overall, not too far off from what we talked about on the last call. Certainly, our full-year guidance, we're firmly on track to deliver on that.

[Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citi Group]

Michael, that's helpful. And then just in welding, maybe give us a little more color into what you see going on there. There was some destock end of last year, maybe a little bit still early this year. Are you getting past that and differences between industrial and commercial markets? Sort of what do you see going forward there?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Yeah. I think the big driver here is really the comparisons year-over-year. That's driving the growth rates as we go forward. And so just like I said, for the total company, for welding, it's also true that as we go through the year, these comparisons get easier. 10% growth in welding in the Q1 last year is obviously not a sustainable growth rate. And so it wasn't really a big surprise that organic revenue was down 3%.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

I'd say on a positive note, and this is true not just in welding, but across the board, last year, we dealt with some meaningful headwind from excess inventory at our customers and in the channel. And to the point, to quantum magnitude, a percentage point of drag on the organic growth rate last year, that is essentially behind us at this point.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

So that's kind of the positive news across the board, including in welding. And then we're back to a normal pricing environment. We've got an exciting lineup in terms of new products that are being launched here in the near term. And so you put all of that together, and we feel really good about the outlook here in welding.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Top line, obviously, but maybe I will just highlight the margin performance again, the fact that with revenues down, margins at 32% plus operating margins is really strong and speaks to the focus that we have on really quality of growth over quantity of growth. And the team is executing well on that plan.

[Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citi Group]

Agreed on the margin performance. Thanks, Michael.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

You're welcome.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Sabrina Abrams, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America]

Hi. You have on Sabrina Abrams for Andrew Obin. Good morning, and congratulations, Karen.

[Karen Fletcher, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thanks, Sabrina.

[Sabrina Abrams, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America]

On the margin side, are there any changes to how you're thinking about volume leverage, price cost, maybe the reinvestment and enterprise initiatives as we move through the year? Maybe we could walk through the different buckets and how they relate to the full-year guide?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Yeah. I think there's not a lot of change from what we talked about on the last call. We are maintaining our operational guidance here. Kind of big picture, at 1%-3% organic growth, there is some positive operating leverage. We expect slightly more than 100 basis points of enterprise initiatives, which is based on the strong performance here in Q1 at 140 basis points. Price cost has essentially normalized at this point.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

So there's some modest favorability from price costs as we go through the year, maybe a little bit more in Q1 versus the back end of the year. And then we have done a good job, as we talked about on the last call, managing some of the cost pressures from an inflationary standpoint around employee-related costs, benefits. That used to be a headwind order of magnitude.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

We used to talk about 150-200 basis points, and that's right around 100 basis points of margin headwind now. Then the last thing that I would add is just the accounting change. So factoring in the LIFO accounting change in Q1, that's how you get to that 140 basis points of margin improvement for the full year and the new range of 26%-27%.

[Sabrina Abrams, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America]

Thank you. And then what are you guys seeing in terms of electronics demand? And what are you hearing from your customers? Because this market has been pressured for five or six quarters now, but clearly, the comps are getting easier. Has this started to bottom out yet?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Well, so I think it's a little bit of a mixed picture there. I think last year, we talked a lot about the challenges in the semi-related businesses. Last year, those were down order of magnitude 20%-25%. Now, we're talking about just to kind of size things. These businesses represent about 15% of the test and measurement electronics segment, 3% of total ITW revenues. So just to kind of put things in context, the positive news is that the semi-markets appear to have bottomed out.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

So this is no longer a drag on the overall growth rate of the segment. They were actually maybe slightly positive here in Q1. But the inevitable recovery has been deferred. And so when exactly that will come, whether that's in the second half or next year, is hard to tell. It's not factored into our guidance, as we told you today.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Then we're seeing a little bit of what I said in the script, a little bit of pressure in the electronic assembly side of things. This is maybe more tied to consumer electronics. That's what drove electronics being down 8% here in the Q1.

[Sabrina Abrams, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America]

Thank you.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Sure.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Mircea Dobre with Baird. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Mircea Dobre, Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Thank you. I'll join the chorus here. Karen, all the best in retirement, and really appreciate all the help over the years.

[Karen Fletcher, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

Thanks, Mircea.

[Mircea Dobre, Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

One question I had was about EMEA, which frankly came in a little bit better than I would have guessed. I guess one of the themes during this earnings season has been that Europe, frankly, has not been that great. So I'm kind of curious what you're seeing there. Is this just a function of the specialty kind of one-time items that might have helped Europe in a quarter, or is there kind of more green shoots to talk about in Europe?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Well, I mean, the big driver in Europe here from a dollar standpoint was the specialty products, these two equipment businesses here in and the timing around some of those orders. Those specialty was up 20% here in the Q1. But overall, I'd say pretty stable. Automotive was up 2%, test and measurement electronics up 5%, food equipment about flat. That's a little bit of an anomaly. That will return to more positive growth as we go through the year.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

And then smaller businesses welding down a little bit and Polymers and Fluids down a little bit. But overall and then construction obviously remains a drag internationally as it has been for well over a year at this point. So construction was still down double-digit here in the Q1. But overall, 1% positive organic growth in the Q1 in Europe.

[Mircea Dobre, Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Understood. And since you mentioned construction, that was going to be my follow-up there. How do you sort of think about the way this segment can progress through the year here? Is there some sort of a docking effect that we need to be aware of? And can you also clarify a little bit what you're seeing in North America? You talked about resi. I'm curious what you're seeing on the non-resi side.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Yeah. I think overall, actually, if you think about construction, the performance in North America, I think it's a good example of illustration of how the business is outperforming in a very challenging down market. To only be down 3% in a market that if you look at all the key metrics, is certainly down a lot more than that, is pretty impressive. Residential remodel, we said down 1%. I mean, and the home centers are actually down a little bit more than that.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

And on the commercial side, to your question, that continues to be soft. The commercial side is down. I mean, it's a fairly small part of the overall business, about 20% of the global business, maybe even a little bit less than that. That business was down in the low teens here in the Q1. But overall, pretty resilient performance in a challenging market.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

And we expect that, frankly, to remain that way as we go through the balance of the year. If you look at our guidance last time we were together, we said we expected construction to be down 1-3, and I would certainly put them in that category. And then what's really helping drive some of the performance here is the margin performance. Again, for a construction business to be delivering 29% plus margins is pretty remarkable without any volume leverage.

[Mircea Dobre, Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

All right. Thank you.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

You're welcome.

[Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW]

I think we'll take one more question, please.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Matthew Pan, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays]

Hi. Good morning. This is Matthew Pan from Julian Mitchell's team at Barclays. Just one, if we could dial in on the TME margins, they were down year-over-year. Can they expand in 2024 overall?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

The short answer is yes. I think one of the reasons, as I said in the prepared remarks, that test and measurement margins were down in the Q1 is really the strong performance of the MTS business, which grew at 20% plus organic, which is certainly great performance. Due to the fact that we're only two years in in terms of implementing the ITW business model, margins are in the mid-teens in that business.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

And so there's a negative mix effect that diluted the margins in test and measurement by about 250 basis points. Now, as we go forward, starting Q2 and then through the balance of the year, we do expect that margins will improve from here in the test and measurement electronics segment.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

If you just look at kind of where we were historically, we're going to be back to kind of the mid-20s here for the full year, is the current expectation. So in every segment, including in test and measurement electronics, we expect to improve margins on a year-over-year basis, so.

[Chris O'Herlihy, CEO at ITW]

Yeah. In test and measurement electronics, I would just add that there's an extremely fertile environment for innovation, which will underpin margin progression going forward in that segment.

[Mircea Dobre, Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Yeah. Got it. Just a quick follow-up, the free cash flow is down year-over-year in Q1. Is that just the working capital build? Then what are your thoughts on Q2? Is that up year-over-year?

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Yeah. I think if you look at the free cash flow conversion, it's actually pretty close to kind of normal seasonality. Working capital, if you look at inventory, it's certainly a decline on a year-over-year basis. It looks like an increase from year-end in Q1. You have to factor out this LIFO inventory accounting change, which added $117 million of inventory in the Q1.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

If you do that, you'll see that inventory was actually flat in the quarter relative to year-end, when typically, we see a 5% increase or about $85 million of inventory increase in the Q1, which the team was able to offset. Now, that said, our months on hand are still elevated relative to pre-COVID levels. And so pre-COVID, we were in the low 2s months on hand. We're right around 3.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

Certainly, some improvement, but we believe that there is a lot more opportunity here to drive those inventory levels back to kind of pre-COVID levels, given that supply chain has normalized. So as a result of that, you should expect continued strong free cash flow performance as we go through the year.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

That's consistent with the guidance we gave today, which is a conversion of 100% plus for the full year. I think overall, kind of typical performance in Q1 and more to come as we go through the balance of the year in terms of reducing our inventory levels, which will result in strong free cash flow, as you've come to expect from ITW.

[Mircea Dobre, Senior Research Analyst at Baird]

Perfect. Thank you very much.

[Michael Larsen, CFO at ITW]

You're welcome.

[Operator]

That concludes our question and answer session. With that, that does conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Michael Larsen, CFO

Analysts

• Andy Kaplowitz, Managing Director at Citi Group
• Chris O'Herlihy, CEO at ITW
• Erin Linnihan, VP of Investor Relations at ITW
• Jamie Cook, Managing Director of Equity Research at Truist Securities
• Karen Fletcher, VP of Investor Relations at ITW
• Matthew Pan, Equity Research Analyst at Barclays
• Mircea Dobre, Senior Research Analyst at Baird
• Sabrina Abrams, Equity Research Associate at Bank of America
• Steve Volkmann, Senior Research Analyst at Jefferies
• Tami Zakaria, Executive Director at JPMorgan