Stride Q4 2024 Earnings Report

Stride EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.42
• Consensus EPS: $1.27
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.15
• One Year Ago EPS: $1.01

Stride Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $534.18 million
• Expected Revenue: $525.89 million
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$8.29 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +10.50%

Stride Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2024
• Date: 8/6/2024
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, August 6, 2024
• Conference Call Time: 5:00PM ET

Stride (NYSE:LRN) (NYSE:LRN) is a technology-driven education company that designs and delivers online learning solutions for students and adult learners. Through long-term partnerships with state-authorized public school districts, Stride operates virtual academies that serve K-12 students across the United States. The company’s blended-learning model combines digital curriculum, live teaching support and data analytics to personalize instruction and monitor student progress.

In addition to its K-12 offerings, Stride provides a portfolio of career and workforce readiness programs under its Stride Career Prep division. These programs deliver online certificates and training courses in fields such as information technology, healthcare and skilled trades. Stride also offers a suite of supplemental curricula and professional development services to school districts and educational providers through its Stride Learning Solutions segment.

Founded in 2000 as K12 Inc. and headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida, the company rebranded to Stride, Inc. in 2020 to reflect its expanding focus beyond traditional K-12 schooling. Over the years, Stride has acquired complementary businesses—such as Fuel Education—to broaden its curriculum offerings and extend its reach in both the public and private education sectors.

Stride’s programs are available in more than 30 states and are supported by a management team with deep experience in education, technology and operations. By leveraging proprietary learning platforms and flexible delivery models, Stride aims to address the diverse needs of learners from elementary school through adult career training.

Stride Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Stride delivered a record fiscal 2024 with revenue topping $2 billion, adjusted operating income up 46%, and free cash flow increasing by $80.6 million.
• Earnings per share rose 58% year-over-year (nearly 700% since 2020), and gross margin reached its highest level in more than five years at 37.4%.
• K-12 enrollments hit an all-time high, with year-end totals exceeding the start of the year for the second consecutive year—General Education enrollments grew 8% and Career Learning enrollments grew 10%.
• For fiscal 2025, revenue per enrollment is projected to be flat due to a less robust state funding environment and the expiration of federal ESSER support.
• Adult Learning revenue declined 16% on IT program softness, but Allied Health surged over 20%, and the company remains on track to achieve its FY2028 targets of 10% revenue CAGR and 20% AOI CAGR.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good afternoon, and welcome to the Stride fourth quarter fiscal 2024 earnings call. Please note that this call is being recorded. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then the number 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now turn the call over to Timothy Casey, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

[Timothy Casey, VP of Investor Relations at Stride]

Thank you and good afternoon. Welcome to Stride's fourth quarter and year-end earnings call for fiscal 2024. With me on today's call are James Rhyu, Chief Executive Officer, and Donna Blackman, Chief Financial Officer. As a reminder, today's conference call and webcast are accompanied by a presentation that can be found on the Stride Investor Relations website. Please be advised that today's discussion of our financial results may include certain non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of these measures is provided in the earnings release issued this afternoon and can also be found on our investor relations website. In addition to historical information, this call may also involve forward-looking statements. The company's actual results could differ materially from any forward-looking statements due to several important factors as described in the company's latest SEC filing.

[Timothy Casey, VP of Investor Relations at Stride]

These statements are made on the basis of our views and assumptions regarding future events and business performance at the time we make them, and the company assumes no obligation to update any forward-looking statements made during this call. Following our prepared remarks, we will answer any questions you may have. I will now turn this call over to James. James?

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

Thanks, Tim, and good afternoon, everyone. I started this year by talking about my belief that Stride can change the future of education. I outlined some of the macro trends in our country precipitating the need for change. Throughout the year, we've continued to see these trends play out. High parent dissatisfaction, surveys showing over 70% of families considering changing schools over the past 12 months, and we continue to see students reconsidering the traditional college pathway in favor of a more skills-based education. I think that the results we posted for this year demonstrate and validate the longevity of our model. We are delivering tomorrow's education today. Students and families are looking for something different and finding it at Stride. We're providing real choice for families, choice that is affordable and accessible to anyone, anywhere, and at any time. Our offerings are personalized, career-forward, and tech-driven.

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

And that translated into another record year. We crossed $2 billion in revenue for the first time. We had record profitability and free cash flow. Earnings per share increased 58% year-over-year and has now grown almost 700% since 2020. We achieved our highest gross margin in over five years. We had our highest in-year enrollment ever, pushing us to the highest enrollment level in the company's history, even larger than during the pandemic highs. We finished the year with more enrollments than we started for the second straight year. As I mentioned last year, even with our strong results, including multiple years of near or above double-digit revenue growth, continued margin expansion, and an attractive future growth profile, our valuation multiples still lag the market. In addition, the market continues to recognize our superior product and service offerings.

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

Stride was named the EdTech Breakthrough Remote Learning Solution Provider of the Year. Our MedCerts programs won a bronze medal for Best Use of AI in HealthTech from the Merit Awards. Our game-based learning offerings won almost too many awards to list, including the prestigious Royal Society of Chemistry Horizon Prize for our Periodic Rescue game in Minecraft, a Gold Stevie for our Minecraft Education Worlds game, two Bronze Stevies, one each for our Math Bee and ELL/World Languages games, and our professional development offerings won two Gold Stevies. We also continue to see early traction with our other new product offerings, including our tutoring solution, which gained formal acceptance across a number of states. Now, I understand everybody wants some color on our fall enrollment season.

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

Please remember that it is still early, and we have a long way to go to close out the season strong. Having said that, early indicators look positive. Demand, as I have said before, we define as application volumes, continue to be strong and are pacing ahead of last year, consistent with the pacing we have seen for much of the prior year. So I feel confident that we will grow our enrollments for this fall, and we remain on track for our long-term goals. All of this demonstrates what I started my comments with, that Stride is offering tomorrow's education today. Now I'll pass the call to Donna. Donna?

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

Thanks, James, and good evening, everyone. We finished fiscal year 2024 with revenue of $2.04 billion, an increase of 11% over the prior fiscal year. Adjusted operating income for the year was $293.9 million, up 46% from last year, and adjusted operating income margin improved 350 basis points. Our results for the year further demonstrate the sustained demand for full-time online options in the US K-12 market. Throughout the year, we saw continued strength and in-year enrollment coupled with strong retention.... This led to us once again exceeding our revenue and AOI guidance, and it also means we remain firmly on track toward achieving our fiscal year 2028 targets. Returning to our full year results in more detail.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

Career Learning, middle, and high school revenues totaled $651.2 million, up 11%, with full year enrollments of 72.7 thousand, up more than 10% from last year. General Education revenue came in at $1.289 billion, up 14%. Enrollments in Gen Ed for the year totaled 121.6 thousand, up more than 8%. Total revenue per enrollment for both lines of business was $9,623, up 5.4% from last year. Throughout the year, we saw a divergence in Career Learning and General Education revenue per enrollment. General Education finished up 8%, while Career Learning was up just 1%.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

As we've said all year, Career Learning was up against a hard comp from last year when we finished the year up 16.3%. Overall, funding environment for both Career Learning and General Education throughout the year. But as with any year, revenue per enrollment was impacted by a number of things, including enrollment mix, yield, and timing impacts from prior year catch-ups. For next year, we still see a largely positive environment from a funding perspective at the state level, though not as strong as we see in the past couple of years. States also are grappling with the loss of federal ESSER funding in the coming school year, which will create a headwind in revenue per enrollment growth.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

Given these competing dynamics, as of right now, and it's still early in the year, we expect full year FY 2025 revenue per enrollment growth to be flattish to FY 2024. Adult learning revenue declined 16% for the year to $99.7 million on continued softness in our IT offerings. The upside is that our allied health business continues to see strong growth, finishing the year with revenues up more than 20%. Going forward, this means that the struggling IT side of adult learning will continue to be a smaller part of the overall business. Gross margin for the year was 37.4%, up 220 basis points from FY 2023. As the business has continued to grow, we've seen benefits from our scale and the payoff from the efficiency efforts we've rolled out over the past couple of years.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

The teams have done an incredible job improving the leverage we get out of the business, and I will continue to challenge us to improve this going forward. Selling, general, and administrative expenses were $514 million, up 7% from last year, driven by investments in our technology and higher stock-based compensation. As I mentioned during our Investor Day in November, we will continue to keep our SG&A spending in check, and we expect to see strong leverage out of the business going forward. SG&A, as a percent of revenue, has declined 500 basis points since FY 2020, and we believe we can continue to improve this metric as the company grows. Stock-based compensation for the year was $31.5 million, up $11.2 million from last year due to the timing of some stock grants.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

Adjusted operating income came in at $293.9 million, up $92.9 million, or 46% from last year. Adjusted EBITDA was $390.7 million, up $94.6 million, or 32% from the prior year. Diluted earnings per share totaled $4.69, up 58% from last year. Improvements in our profitability metrics were driven by our top-line growth, coupled with our continued efficiency efforts and operating leverage. Our effective tax rate for the year was 24%. Capital expenditures were $61.6 million for the year. Free cash flow, which we define as cash from operations less CapEx, was $217.2 million, up $80.6 million from last year.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

We finished the year with cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities of $714.2 million. Our cash position gives us flexibility to continue to invest in our business, be opportunistic when the right M&A deal presents itself at the right price, and consider returning capital to shareholders at the right time. Fiscal 2024 was another record year for Stride, with continued strong revenue and profitability growth. We saw enrollments exceed our pandemic high from FY 2021, and once again finished the year with more enrollments than we started. This puts us in a strong position to see further growth in enrollments, revenue, and profitability in FY 2025. However, as James said, it's still early in our enrollment season. Historically, August and September are our busiest months, so we've got a lot of work ahead of us.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

Because of this, as we do every year, we'll wait until our Q1 earnings report in October to provide formal guidance. A couple of quick notes. Seasonality for next year should be in line with FY 2024, though we're still unsure if the in-year enrollment trends we've seen in FY 2023 and 2024 will continue. We expect to see continued gross margin improvement at a slightly lower rate of improvement than we've seen this year. We expect to see continued gross margin improvement at a slightly lower rate of improvement than we saw this year. SG&A expense as a percent of revenue should decrease marginally. CapEx as a percent of revenue will be flattish. Interest expense, tax rate, and stock-based compensation should be in line with FY 2024.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

With our FY 2024 results and current trends we are seeing for FY 2025, we remain on track to achieving the FY 2028 targets we outlined last November of total revenue CAGR of 10% and AOI CAGR of 20%, both at the midpoint. Thanks so much for your time today, and I'll pass the call back to the operator for your questions. Operator?

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now open the line for questions. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. If you are dialed in and listening via loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Our first question comes from Gregory Parrish with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

[Gregory Parrish, Vice President of Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Hey, thank you, and good evening. Congrats on the quarter and the strong year, I guess. Thank you for the color you guys are giving here in the summer. So, I wanted to ask any incremental color on what you're seeing in enrollment trends, of course. Any commentary... It sounds like the commentary is the same as last quarter, right? You're trending up year over year. You're in a strong position to grow enrollments. But, I mean, has anything changed over the last three months? Anything incremental that you're seeing, maybe here in August so far?

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

Yeah. Hey, yeah, I think, I guess what I would say is that, in the intervening three months since the last quarter, you know, I think as Donna mentioned, we still have a long way to go. We've got, I think by our estimate, more than 50% of the season to go in terms of, enrollment volumes. So, you know, still a lot can happen. But, I would say I'm more confident today about our ability to grow into the fall than I was three months ago.

[Gregory Parrish, Vice President of Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Okay, that's helpful. On funding, also, I appreciate the color, Donna, you gave on expectation for flat, or maybe that was revenue per enrollment for flat. So do you see a scenario where funding could go backwards next year, and perhaps the, you know, ESSER headwinds are a little bit greater than you think? Is that a possibility?

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

From what we're seeing, looking at the just sort of normal state funding, that funding trend looks favorable from the early funding trends that we're seeing. And from a ESSER standpoint, just given the amount of ESSER funding that we have seen, we'll see some offset to that. And so we think that will sort of offset each other. Now, where we could see some... the variability that we can't quite quantify yet, will be the mix, right? If we happen to grow in states that pay a lower PPR, then the funding, the PPR could be lower. If we grow in a state that pays a higher PPR, the PPR would be higher, which is why we are projecting that our PPR will be relatively flat, next year-over-year.

[Gregory Parrish, Vice President of Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Okay, maybe I'll ask one more odd one and pass it. But so SG&A, I mean, historically, fourth quarter has been a little bit higher seasonally. I think that's what you do. You know, you ramp up your marketing. I guess walk us through the SG&A line. It's down sequentially, down year over year. Maybe that's just all the efficiencies that you're getting. But on the marketing side, I assume that's not down year over year, but just wanted to confirm that point.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

Yeah, we have been more efficient, so the marketing spend actually is down. We've been doing some automation in our enrollment center, so that is down. We've also reduced some costs in our coding business to be aligned with the decrease in the revenue for that business.

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

And we had slightly lower claims in our medical expenses. But yeah, we have been more efficient in our spending for marketing as well as, I said, the automation associated with our enrollment trends.

[Gregory Parrish, Vice President of Equity Research at Morgan Stanley]

Okay, thanks for all the color.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Jeff Silber with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Jeffrey Silber, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets]

Thanks so much. Wanted to go back to the funding environment, not necessarily from your perspective, but from a competitive perspective. We've been reading about some states cutting back on their own virtual schools as funding has kind of slowed. Are you seeing any of that in the states that you compete or potential new states, and you think that might give you an advantage from a competitive perspective?

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

Yeah, I mean, I think what we see in the states where we're operating is, you know, and I think by and large, you know, absent something very unusual, I think the fall sort of school season is upon us, and therefore, for states to make a change at this point going forward would be very unusual. So we don't really see a lot of risk for this fall. You know, I do think that there are a couple of states out there where, you know, there's some political pressure to either cut funding, but we just haven't seen that for this fall. And we feel pretty good about where we are heading into the season.

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

I think that, you know, I think that the state political landscape for us, as you know, which is very important, I think is, it's since the pandemic has become just a little bit more bipartisan. You know, the need to have educational choices for consumers is real, and just like in any other sector of the economy, I don't think that's exactly a partisan issue. Just customer choice is not really a partisan thing. So, we're hopeful that education continues to migrate in that direction.

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

But, you know, just the way the politics, unfortunately, play in the education landscape, there is a little bit of, you know, probably a couple of states that, you know, did worry us earlier in the season, and I think we've settled into a nice place for the fall.

[Jeffrey Silber, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets]

All right. That's good to hear. I'm apologizing in advance for this next question, but you, you talked about being comfortable with your longer term goals of 10% top line compounded growth in revenues and 20% compounded growth in Adjusted Operating Income. I think that's off your, your base from fiscal 2023. You did better than that in 2024. Does that imply growth slows from current levels, even though you still would be on track to hit those targets?

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

That does not imply that we think growth will slow. We think we have a good trajectory to continue momentum for the foreseeable future.

[Jeffrey Silber, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay, I appreciate that. I know you're not providing any forward-looking guidance beyond, I guess, what you gave us so far. And just I wanted to clarify one thing. You talked about revenue per enrollment, expecting that to be flat in fiscal 2025. Are we talking just for the General Education segment or for the total company?

[Donna Blackman, CFO at Stride]

For the total company.

[Jeffrey Silber, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay, great. Thanks so much for the color.

[Operator]

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one. Our next question comes from Stephen Sheldon with William Blair. Please go ahead.

[Pat McIlwee, Analyst at William Blair]

Hi, team. You have Pat McElyea today. Thank you for taking my questions. So my first question, it sounds like early indications of application volumes and conversion are looking strong. So I just wanted to ask, how much of those enrollment trends would you attribute to the kind of refresh marketing strategy versus better retention or anything else we should be thinking about?

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

Yeah, I mean, I think I don't think actually I wouldn't exactly say our marketing strategy has changed dramatically over the past year from last year to this year. I think our execution has improved. And you know, I think I mentioned we brought in a new person last spring. She was able to implement a number of things during the course of last season, but we didn't really have a full season of it. We now are seeing the full season effect of some of the things that she's implemented, and I think they're paying dividends. So I think right now, we're in a, I'd say, sort of a pure execution game, and I think we're putting points on the board.

[Pat McIlwee, Analyst at William Blair]

Okay, understood. And then my second question is on the tutoring front. It sounds like there's been some solid early acceptance with that offering, and you have more than enough teachers that are looking for supplemental income. So I just wanted to ask if you could provide an update on the monetization potential you see there and, you know, what the timing of that could potentially look like.

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

Yeah, it's still early. I think that there's a lot of opportunity out there. There's a lot of opportunity both with district contracts as well as with direct-to-consumer offerings. I think we're in a unique position in that market where we actually can offer a very competitive platform with, I think, and you'll see this year with increasing functionality that is gonna start separating us from the marketplace, and it's a real convenience to be able to do it online. I think there's greater acceptance to doing it online. I don't think we would expect this year to, for it to materially impact our financials, just sort of given such a low starting base and the fact that, you know, we're over $2 billion of revenue now.

[James Rhyu, CEO at Stride]

But, yeah, I mean, I could see it, I could see us being a serious player in the next couple of years in the tutoring marketplace, and I think that that can add a couple of points of growth over the next few years.

[Pat McIlwee, Analyst at William Blair]

Understood. Thank you for the call, James.

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time. With that, we will conclude today's conference call. Thank you all for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Donna Blackman, CFO
• James Rhyu, CEO
• Timothy Casey, VP of Investor Relations

Analysts

• Gregory Parrish, Vice President of Equity Research at Morgan Stanley
• Jeffrey Silber, Managing Director at BMO Capital Markets
• Pat McIlwee, Analyst at William Blair