Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria Q3 2025 Earnings Report

Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.49
• Consensus EPS: $0.48
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.01
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $10.59 billion
• Expected Revenue: $10.47 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$118.55 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2025
• Date: 10/30/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, October 30, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 4:30AM ET

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, S.A. (NYSE: BBVA) is a global financial services group headquartered in Bilbao, Spain. The bank provides retail and commercial banking, corporate and investment banking, asset management, private banking, payments and insurance-related services to individuals, businesses, institutions and public-sector customers.

BBVA traces its origins to Banco de Bilbao, founded in 1857. The modern group was formed through the merger of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya and Argentaria in 1999. Its operations are centered in Spain and Mexico, with additional banking activities in Türkiye through Garanti BBVA, South America, the United States and other European markets. The group also serves customers through digital banking platforms and branch networks.

BBVA offers products including checking and savings accounts, consumer and mortgage loans, credit and debit cards, business financing, treasury and transaction services, investment products, securities brokerage and financial advisory services. The company has emphasized digital transformation and sustainable finance as part of its broader banking strategy. Carlos Torres Vila serves as executive chair, and Onur Genç is the group’s chief executive officer.

Banco Bilbao Viscaya Argentaria Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Record profitability and value creation: tangible book value per share plus dividends up 17% YoY, return on tangible equity at 19.7%, and almost €8bn net attributable profit in the first nine months of 2025.
• Positive Sentiment: Core revenues driving growth — net interest income and fees up strongly (c. +18% and +15% YoY respectively) and group gross income +16% YTD, supported by robust loan growth of 16% YoY and market‑share gains in Spain and Mexico (mortgage growth intentionally constrained for pricing).
• Positive Sentiment: Strong capital position and resumed shareholder distributions: CET1 at 13.42% with an expected +40–50bps regulatory tailwind in Q4, a nearly €1bn buyback starting tomorrow, a record interim dividend of €0.32 per share, and a larger buyback pending ECB approval.
• Neutral Sentiment: Asset quality generally better than guidance (group cost of risk ~135bps, improving MPL/coverage), but regionally mixed — Turkey showing strong profits amid disinflation dynamics while Argentina is seeing rising NPLs and pressure from very high real rates, so monitor country risks.

Presentation

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Good morning and thank you for joining us for BBVA's third quarter results presentation. As every quarter, I'm pleased to be joined by our CEO, Onur Genç, and our Group CFO, Luisa Gómez Bravo. We will start with a review of the key figures for the quarter, and then we will open the floor for your questions. Without further delay, let me hand it over to Onur.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Thank you, Patricia. Good morning to everyone. Welcome and thank you for joining BBVA's third quarter 2025 earnings webcast. As always, let's jump into the slides, starting with slide number three. As always, starting with the value creation numbers. On the left-hand side of the page, you can see the strong evolution of tangible book value per share plus dividends, which increased by 17% year over year and 4.5% in the quarter. In my view, excellent figures. On the right-hand side, you see the profitability ratios. They are sustained at very high levels, with an industry-leading return on tangible equity of 19.7% and an ROE of 18.8% in the first nine months of 2025.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

On page number four, on the left-hand side, we delivered another strong quarter in terms of net attributable profit, once again exceeding the EUR 2.5 billion mark, even in the context of a much lower rate environment, obviously. The net attributable profit decreased compared to the previous quarter, mainly due to two things: higher inflation in Turkey, which impacts obviously the other income line item, and mostly due to the one-off positive impacts registered in the second quarter. If you remember more specifically, the release of some fiscal provisions affecting the tax rate and the review of value-added tax, VAT, the payment calculations around this, and the effect which then affected the operating expenses. The net attributable profit is also slightly below last year's figure for a good reason, we think, because Mexican peso has been appreciating lately versus a depreciation in the same period last year.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

This had a negative effect on the FX hedges or the net trading income line of the corporate center this quarter, but they will benefit from this, from an appreciated Mexican peso in the coming quarters. We take this any day. On the right-hand side of the page, you can see our CET1 capital ratio, which improved by 8 basis points during the quarter, reaching 13.42%. This solid capital position obviously provides us with the capacity to increase our shareholder remuneration, which I will explain later. Page number five, on the left-hand side, our cumulative profits for the first nine months. They continue their upward trend to a record level, reaching almost EUR 8 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 4.7% increase year over year in current euros. On the right-hand side of the page, our profitability metrics compared to European peers.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Once again, our 19.7% return on tangible equity, it remains unmatched, and we are clearly one of the most profitable banks in the industry. Moving to page number six, this page is a summary of the pages to follow, so allow me to directly move to the next slide. Slide number seven. As always, the summarized P&L of the quarter. I would highlight the outstanding evolution of the core revenues, especially in the last quarter, with net interest income and fees growing 18% and 15% year over year, respectively. In my view, an impressive 7% and 6% quarter over quarter, respectively, again in constant euros. Slide number eight, the summarized P&L over the first nine months of the year. I would once again highlight the very positive core revenues evolution, leading to an increase in gross income of 16% in constant euros year over year.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

The strong gross income growth, coupled with the positive jobs and the contained growth in impairments, which we will discuss later, led again to the record, as I mentioned, net attributable profit of almost EUR 8 billion. Moving to slide number nine, which puts more light into the revenue breakdown evolution. Once again, we continue to deliver quarter on quarter on revenue growth, driven mainly by net interest income and net fees and commissions, as you can see on the page. This has been the story of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria in my view in the past few years. As you can see on the page, this quarter, the performance is even more pronounced, with NAI growing 7.1% in the quarter and fees growing 5.8% in the quarter, leading to a quarterly growth rate of 4.4% in gross income.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Despite an uncertain macro environment, despite declining interest rates, we keep delivering on core revenues. Regarding the annual decline in the net trading income, I already mentioned it, but an important part of it is again due to the strong gains from the FX hedges linked to Mexican peso depreciation last year versus a negative FX hedge impact this quarter due to Mexican peso appreciation. As I said, we can take this any time because it will help us in the coming quarters. Moving to slide number 10, let me focus a bit more on activity and loan growth, which has maintained its pace at an excellent 16% growth year over year, then leading to an excellent NAI performance. As we claim, this is also very good news for the coming quarters since we deliver this loan growth in a very profitable manner.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

In Spain, in the middle of the page, loan growth further accelerated to 7.8% year over year, while Mexico continues in line with our ambitious guidance at 9.8% year over year. In the case of Mexico, let me remark that if we exclude the U.S. dollar currency impact, the loan growth figure as of September 2025 would have been 10.9%. Now, on the right-hand side of the page, thanks to the strong loan growth figures and obviously our proactive price management, we continued expanding on our core revenues, the sum of NAI and fee income in both Spain and Mexico, in both year over year and quarter over quarter comparisons. Again, gaining pace in the last quarter. If you annualize the quarterly figures of the core revenues, they are really good numbers in our view. This is one of the most important messages of the presentation.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Banks are generally rate sensitive, as we also are in Spain and Mexico. Despite the rate compression, thanks to our unmatched loan growth, leading to, in every single country, market share gains and our proactive price management, we continue to grow our core revenues. Now, on page number 11, you see another reason for our optimism looking into the future. As I mentioned, we are quite rate sensitive in Spain and Mexico. The last two years, and especially the last year, we have seen interest rates decrease significantly in these markets. The good news in our view is that we believe interest rates are already at or near the expected terminal rates in both Europe, Spain, and also Mexico. In the case of Europe, we expect the terminal rate to be around 2%, where interest rates already are compared to the 4% at the beginning of 2024.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

In the case of Mexico, the policy rate was at 11.25% at the beginning of 2024, and is now at 7.5%. As you know, we estimate the terminal rate to be around 6.5%, so we are almost there as well in Mexico. We have proactively managed the impact of these rate declines, which, by the way, happens quite fast in Mexico. The reset frequency is much faster in Mexico, and with some months' delay in Spain, our customer spreads on the right-hand side of the page already reflect those impacts. With limited room for further rate cuts, we expect relative stability in customer spreads going forward.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

In short, let's not take too much time on the page, but if spreads stay around these levels, and with continued dynamism in activity and loan growth, we believe our revenues and profits will further strengthen in our core markets in the coming quarters and years. Moving to slide number 12, on the left-hand side of the slide, we continue to show positive jaws at the group level, supported by the solid performance of the gross income, which grew 16.2% year over year, while operating expenses increased by 11%, remaining below the average inflation across our footprint. On the right-hand side of the slide, you can see our efficiency ratio again improving, reaching 38.2%, below last year's level, obviously.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Slide number 13, this page shows the solid evolution of our asset quality metrics, which are performing better than expectations, better than our guidance at the beginning of the year, in a context of strong activity growth, especially in the most profitable and typically higher cost-of-risk segments. On the left-hand side of the page, at the bottom, our cost of risk stands at 135 basis points, again better than guidance, slightly above last quarter's figure, with the numbers already incorporating the negative impact coming from the annual risk model calibration process, partially compensated by the positive impact from the quarterly macro adjustment. Meanwhile, on the right bottom, you see that our MPL and coverage ratios, they continue improving. Slide number 14, on capital and shareholder remuneration. On the left-hand side of the slide, our capital waterfall for the quarter over quarter evolution.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Our CET1 ratio, once again, has increased 8 basis points to 13.42%. Following the waterfall results, 65 basis points, dividend accrual and AT1 coupons minus 35 basis points, then 37 basis points due to the RWA's growth. This figure reflects, again, our ability to reinvest part of our capital generation into profitable growth. As in other recent quarters, it also reflects the result of several risk transfer transactions, SRTs, which positively contributed 5 basis points to the ratio this quarter, a bit lower than the previous quarters because of the summer seasonality. We have a bucket of others of 15 basis points, which comprises, among others, the market-related impacts, slightly positive, and the credit in OC for hyperinflationary countries.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Lastly, regarding the CET1 ratio, and as we announced last quarter, we expect a positive regulatory impact in the fourth quarter in the range of 40 to 50 basis points, reinforcing our already very strong capital position. Moving to the right side of the page, as the process of the Sabadell transaction has ended, we will resume our shareholder remuneration programs. First, we will begin our EUR 1 billion, nearly EUR 1 billion share buyback program starting tomorrow. Second, we will distribute on November 7 a record interim dividend of EUR 0.32 per share. Most importantly, as soon as we get the required ECB authorization, for which the process has already been initiated, we will start another round of a significant share buyback. The details of this last piece will be announced, obviously, once we receive the authorization from ECB.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Moving to page number 15, it's a quick review of our strategic progress and specifically on new customer acquisition. During the first nine months of 2025, we have acquired a record 8.7 million new customers, with 66% joining us through digital channels, a clear competitive advantage for BBVA. On slide 16, another pillar of our growth strategy, sustainability. We continue to deliver quarter after quarter, even above our own expectations. In the first nine months of 2025, we have channeled a record EUR 97 billion in sustainable business, with a significant increase in all segments. Finally, moving to page number 17, as you know, last quarter, we set our ambitious financial goals for the 2025-2028 period. We will report back to you on the progress versus the established goals every quarter.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

In short, we are at the early innings, but as compared to the numbers we have in the plan for the first nine months of 2025, we are performing better than our original expectations in all the metrics. Now, for the business areas update, I turn it to Luisa. Luisa.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Thank you very much, Onur, and good morning, everyone. In slide number 19, let's start with Spain, which has shown a strong momentum throughout the year and once again has delivered excellent results in the third quarter. Net profit reached EUR 3.1 billion in the first nine months of 2025, with around EUR 1 billion generated in the third quarter alone. These results, in line with previous quarters, reflect solid business performance and outstanding NAI evolution despite lower rates, robust fee income, strict cost discipline, and continued strength in asset quality. Starting with net interest income, it has continued to perform exceptionally well this quarter, up 3.2% quarter on quarter, driven by strong loan growth in our most profitable segments. As you can see, consumer lending and mid-sized company loans both grew by around 10% year on year, well above the overall loan growth of 7.8%.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

We also continue to benefit from the positive contribution of the ACO portfolio, fully aligned with our strategy to lock in higher rates. Based on this solid performance, we are raising our NAI guidance for Spain to low single-digit growth in 2025, up from slightly positive previously. Fee income this quarter was affected by the usual summer seasonality. Year on year, performance remains very solid, up 4.2%, mainly driven by strong growth in asset management fees, nearly 10% year on year higher, together with increasing contributions from insurance and credit cards. On the cost side, the quarterly increase mainly reflects a one-off related to VAT payment calculations recorded last quarter, which you may remember. Excluding this impact, expenses were very well contained, up only 1.3%, clearly showing our continued focus on cost control. Finally, asset quality remains very solid, with both the MPL ratio and coverage ratio improving.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Cost of risk remained contained at 34 basis points, in line with our guidance. Overall, a remarkable quarter in Spain, with solid activity driving robust core revenue growth, even in a low-rate environment. Moving now to Mexico on slide 20. For another quarter, and despite a challenging environment, BBVA Mexico delivered a very strong set of results with net profit at EUR 1.3 billion in the quarter, driven by core revenues growth. Net interest income grew by 3.3% quarter on quarter, supported by robust lending activity, especially in retail, where we continue to focus on the most profitable portfolios, consumer and SMEs, both growing at 4% quarter on quarter. Corporate lending also remains strong, increasing by 9.1% year on year, excluding the effects derived from the Mexican peso appreciation.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Fee income performed very well, up 2.6% quarter on quarter, with growth across the board, mainly driven by credit card payments and asset management fees. Moving to cost, the increase in expenses mainly reflects higher IT investments as we continue investing for future growth, while personnel costs remain stable in the quarter. Overall, efficiency stands at close to 30% in the nine first months. Turning to asset quality, impairments decreased in the quarter, driven by both a net positive impact from the IFRS macro adjustments and solid underlying asset quality trends. As you may know, BBVA Research has reviewed upwards its GDP growth forecast for Mexico, now expecting positive growth of 0.7% in 2025, compared with a contraction of -0.4% in the previous GDP forecast. This revision reflects the resilience of the Mexican economy, even in a highly uncertain global environment.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

All in all, the cumulative cost of risk stands at 327 basis points as of September, better than expected, leading us to also improve our guidance for the full year. We now expect the cost of risk in Mexico to remain below 340 basis points. Finally, net profit reached EUR 3.8 billion in the first nine months of the year. That's a 4.5% increase in constant euros, confirming the strength, resilience, and superior profitability of our Mexican franchise. Moving now to Turkey on slide 21. Turkey delivered a net attributable profit of EUR 648 million in the first nine months, a strong increase, close to 50% compared to the same period last year. This solid performance was driven by higher core revenues and lower impact from the hyperinflationary adjustment, supported by the disinflation trend observed in the country.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

If we briefly look at the income statement in the first nine months of the year, a few key points to highlight. First, we've seen a solid performance in NAI, supported by strong activity growth, mainly driven by retail, significant year-on-year increase in the TL customer spread, but also an improved liquidity management during the quarter. In a context of declining rates, we have benefited from lower cost of deposits while also improving loan yields, supported both by our disciplined price management and our targeted loan growth strategy, focused on the most profitable segments. As you know, in Turkey, our balance sheet shows a positive sensitivity to lower rates, as deposits reprice faster than loans. This means we will continue to benefit from the current easing cycle. Second, fees continue to show a positive trend, underpinned by robust performance in payment systems and asset management fees, as in previous quarters.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Finally, the cost of risk slightly increased to 176 basis points in the first nine months, in line with our expectations. Impairments increased this quarter, mainly explained by the higher provision releases related to big ticket exposures recorded last quarter, which you also may remember. Provisioning needs remain high in retail, although we are starting to see stabilization in NPL inflows in this part of the portfolio. Now let's turn to South America in slide 22. The region continued to make a strong contribution to the group's results, posting a net profit of EUR 585 million in the first nine months, a 24% increase year on year in current terms. During the quarter, NII remained solid, supported by healthy loan growth across the region and customer spread expansion, particularly in Peru and Colombia.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

This positive evolution of margins was partly offset by Argentina, where, ahead of the legislative elections, we saw a sharp compression in spreads amid a highly volatile rate and currency environment. Fee income, on the other hand, showed a remarkable increase in this quarter, with growth across all geographies, reflecting our continued efforts and renewed focus on strengthening this revenue stream. Turning to asset quality, we continue to see positive trends in Peru and Colombia, supported by a more favorable macroeconomic outlook and rate environment. Meanwhile, Argentina continues to show some deterioration in a context of strong loan growth and sharp increase in real rates. Overall, the stock of NPLs remained flattish this quarter, while the NPL ratio improved to 4.08% and the coverage level increased to 93%. The cumulative cost of risk stands at 243 basis points as of September, in line with our full year guidance.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Finally, let's move to the rest of business on slide 23. It's an area that we haven't usually covered on these calls, but given the strategic planned focus on CIB business and commercial banking business, we have decided to also give you some indications of how this P&L is moving on because its strong performance and growing contribution to group's overall results are already very worthwhile. Just as a reminder, this unit mainly includes our CIB business conducted through our BBVA branches outside our core geographies. This activity accounts for more than 90% of the area's total loans and net profit. In addition, the digital banking operations in Italy and Germany are also reported under this business unit. This unit is already delivering around EUR 480 million in profits. This solid performance reflects robust business momentum across the board, supported by cross-border activity and sustainability.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Higher activity levels have led to revenue growth of close to 25% year on year in the first nine months, driven by a strong increase in NII, up 15% year on year, thanks to greater business volumes and disciplined price management, and outstanding contribution from fee income, showing very positive dynamics across all key geographies, supported by both investment banking and global transactional banking fees. On cost, the increase reflects the rollout of our strategic growth plans, building the capabilities that will enable future growth. Finally, risk metrics remain very solid in this segment. The NPL ratio improved to 18 basis points, and the cost of risk for the first nine months stands at just 10 basis points.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Overall, we see this as a very promising business area where we are leveraging our diversified footprint to support clients wherever they operate, not only in our core markets, but also in other strategic geographies for them, such as the U.S., the U.K., continental Europe, and Asia. Now back to Onur for the key takeaways.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

For the main takeaways, it's on page 24. Let me not take time because they're quite obvious on the page. Let me once again repeat the very high-level overall message, which is we are once again very happy with the performance in the quarter, especially the quarterly core revenue evolution. We are very focused, very focused on creating organic capital and resuming our distributions to shareholders, which will be starting tomorrow morning. With that, we go to Q&A. Patricia.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Yes, thank you very much, Onur and Luisa. We are ready now to start with the Q&A session. Operator, please.

[Operator]

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question on today's call, please press star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad now. If a parent asked you a question, please ensure you are unmuted locally. That's star followed by 1. Our first question comes from Maks Mishyn from JB Capital. Max, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Maks Mishyn, Equity Research at JB Capital]

Yeah, thanks. Hi, good morning. Thank you for the presentation and taking our questions. I have two questions. The first one is on loan book growth in Spain. Can you please talk more about the type of demand you are seeing in corporate loans? Also, why growth in mortgages is below the average for the sector? The second one is on cost of risk in Mexico. Even though you improved guidance, the new guidance implies a pickup in the first quarter, and I was wondering why. Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. Loan growth in Spain, the corporate loan growth, and you see it in the documentation, but the mid-sized companies, as we call them, the middle part of the corporate area, it is growing 11%, and the corporate and CIB is growing 18%. Where is this coming from? It's coming across the board in all the sectors, actually. There is some investment drive. As you know, the Spanish economy is doing really well. We upgraded our GDP growth rate forecast in Spain to 3% this year and 2.3%. We also upgraded next year, 2026, to 2.3%. The economy does well for a few reasons. Number one, immigration, basically. There is a new flow of population into the geography. Number two, Spain is a very service-based economy, relatively speaking, obviously, and services sectors in general are doing really well.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

For Spain, tourism is very important under that chapter, doing really well. Number three, next-generation EU funds, it is affecting in a positive way the growth in Spain. Number four, there is an investment pickup in the country. In multiple dimensions, we see two very clear strong areas. Number one, the energy and renewables, they continue to attract investment. Number two, the housing. There is a big demand in the market. You might know these numbers already, Max. In Spain, every year, basically around 300,000 new households are being formed, 300,000, versus the new supply of homes is around 150,000. There is a mismatch in terms of demand and supply. This 150,000 new houses being constructed every year used to be 100,000 two years ago. There is also some vibrant activity in the construction and the housing sector as well.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

All combined is leading to the numbers that you see on the corporate segment. Why loan growth is not so good in mortgages? You know the answer. The pricing, we just don't see value in growing the mortgage book at these prices. Even if you incorporate the cross-sell additional income to those loans, we just don't see the value. That's why we are staying out. This is not new for us. From the beginning of this year, actually, we have been losing market share in mortgages, and we are completely fine with it if there is no return on the cartera, on the book. Cost of risk in Mexico, we are actually upgrading our guidance to less than 340. Less than 340 does not mean 340. The dynamics are very good.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

As I mentioned in my part of the presentation, in the third quarter in Mexico and in general, there was the impact, positive impact from macro adjustment because we have upgraded the macro expectation for Mexico. There was a larger negative impact coming from annual recalibration of the IFRS 9 modeling. That was the reason why it slightly went up versus the first six months of the year. It's lower than the second quarter, but the average of the first six months, it went up slightly. The reason was that, basically. We are quite positive, actually, about what we are seeing in Mexico in terms of the growth dynamics and in terms of the cost of risk dynamics. Luisa, you want to add anything?

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

I would just add to your point, just in case, just to be fully transparent, the IFRS annual recalibration update that we do this year has taken place in the third quarter. Last year, it took place in the fourth quarter. This is done throughout the whole of our geographies, and it coincided also this quarter with a positive macro IFRS update in the geographies as well across the board.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you, Max. Next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Antonio Reale from Bank of America. Antonio, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Antonio Reale, Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research at Bank of America]

Hi, morning all. It's Antonio from Bank of America. A couple of questions from my side, please. The first one, you forgive me if I go back to the Sabadell bit, but as a management team, you've put a lot of energy and resources into the project, which for one reason or the other didn't work out. Looking back, is there anything you think you would have done differently or maybe just your takeaway? What do you walk away with? I mean, we've seen two failed bids in Europe and not something we've seen very frequently in the past. That's my first question. My second question is more forward-looking and relates to sort of capital and your distribution outlook. You are at 13.4% today, and you flagged some additional capital tailwinds of 40 to 50 basis points coming through, and that's in Q4.

[Antonio Reale, Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research at Bank of America]

Now you've confirmed also that your go-to capital target is at 11.5%-12%. How quickly do you think you can go to that level? The market seems to be a bit skeptical about you running your business with that capital buffer. Maybe you can touch on that as well. Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. Thank you, Antonio, as always. It's always good questions. On the Sabadell topic, as you can see in the presentation today as well, and as we have been operating since that day of Friday, we closed that chapter. We closed that chapter. We do think it's a missed opportunity. It's a missed opportunity for our shareholders, our clients, our employees, but definitely for Sabadell shareholders as well, Sabadell clients and Sabadell employees as well, for Spain, for Europe, for Catalonia. We do think it's a missed opportunity, but we closed that chapter. We closed that chapter for one very good reason, because we always care about our own stakeholders, our shareholders, our clients, our employees. For the benefit of our own shareholders, our stakeholders, it's much better to move forward, to look into the future, and to focus on what we do best, which is running our business.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

In that sense, again, we closed that chapter. The learnings, obviously, we are reflecting on the learnings, but the chapter is clearly closed for us. On the capital, 13.42, as you mentioned, we are expecting another 40 to 50 basis points in the fourth quarter, only from positive regulatory impacts. If you add that, and if you also add the organic capital generation that we would be creating in the fourth quarter, the fourth quarter is typically a better quarter in terms of SRT activity also. You would see that we have a lot of excess capital. As we said many times before, we are fully committed to the target, 11.5%-12%. If you take the upper end of that range, 12%, we are going to be basically distributing that capital back to our shareholders to get to that 12% level.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

That's why we said that we are waiting for the ECB approval for this extraordinary significant share buyback, and we'll go from there. Now, coming back to the question of, you said, I don't know what word you used, but the 12%, is that the right target and so on? I repeat the same thing every quarter, but I will do the repetition once again. We have to look not at the absolute level of that number, but we have to look into the difference versus the requirement. That requirement that is set by the ECB, by the supervisor, is basically set based on many things, based on the results of the stress test.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Once again, we come as one of the best in the stress test results, based on return on tangible equity and the organic capital generation capacity, based on the volatility of your organic capital generation, based on multiple, multiple metrics. In all these metrics, not only do we create much better levels of organic capital, if you take five years, ten years, fifteen years, you also see that the volatility around the trend line is one of the lowest in the European banking sector for us. Because we have these wonderful franchises in our view, in the different markets that we operate, one of the best franchises in every single country that we operate. In short, as a result, our requirement is 9.13%. 9.13%. If you take the upper end of our capital target range, 12%, it's 287 basis points difference.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Okay, so the buffer that we have versus our requirement is 287 basis points. We have a peer group. We keep reporting our numbers against the peer group, 15 largest banks of Europe. If you take out the non-EU banks from that list, because the list is European geography, which includes some UK banks and Swiss banks, if you take out those, the EU banks, for which the requirements are set by the same supervisor, ECB, the average of the buffer of the rest, which is the 10 other banks in our peer group, is 240 basis points. Our buffer is actually one of the best and clearly above the average of our peers, and we feel very comfortable operating with 12%, and we are going to be distributing our excess capital back to our shareholders to get to that level.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you very much, Antonio. Next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Francisco Riquel from Alantra. Francisco, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Francisco Riquel, Head of Research at Alantra]

Yes, thank you. I want to ask about margins. First, in Spain, the customer spread has fallen below 2.9%, and I thought 3% was the trough of this interest rate cycle. I wonder if you can share guidance on customer spread going forward. I have seen the loan yield falling 21 basis points Q on Q. How much of the fall is mix related? You have mentioned fast growth in CIB and public sector. Price competition, already some banks have flagged about this. Your Euribor resets pending, and the cost of deposits falls very slowly, just three basis points, and I see fast growth in time deposits. Can you explain the trends on the liability side as well? My second question, margins on Mexico. They are proving, on the contrary, very resilient despite the sharp fall in interest rates that you have mentioned.

[Francisco Riquel, Head of Research at Alantra]

I wonder if this is just a timing issue given the speed of the repricing between the assets and liability, and where do you see the 11% customer spread once the balance sheet is fully repriced to lower interest rates and how fast is the repricing? Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Thank you, Paco, for the questions. I think for both, there is a common theme that I would put on the table first, and then I go into each one of the countries that you mentioned. The theme is, given the rate cycle is coming, again, as we have also put into the presentation, the rate cut cycle is coming to an end. There's some more to be done in Mexico, but in general, we are very close, in our view, to the marginal rate. We do think the spreads that you see, the customer spreads that you see in the pages that you indicated, are relatively the levels that you would be seeing going forward. What does this mean? Let's go then country by country to be more specific. For Spain, you mentioned 3% as the floor.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

I'm not sure whether we quoted that number at all, but I don't think so. The 288 that you see in the quarterly average, actually the monthly figure, monthly average for September, if I'm not mistaken, is 283. We were basically expecting margins to stabilize around these levels, and we do think they are going to be stabilizing around these levels if ECB doesn't again start cutting rates. The stability is already kicking in. You asked about the lending yields, why it came down too much. It's a bit mixed, but more than the mix, it's because of the repricing.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

I'm sure you are aware, you know our book really well, but the reset frequency for corporate lending book is typically one month or three months, and the reset frequency for the mortgage book is for two-thirds of the mortgage book is basically six months, but you take the Euribor 12 months or two months ago, so it's effectively eight months, and one-third is basically more than a year. There's some delay in the reflection of the rate cuts into the lending yield. The lending yield coming down is partially driven by mix, but more importantly, it was driven by the reflection of the rate declines that we have seen in the market in the last two years, in the last year. We are quite positive on what we are seeing for a few reasons.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Number one, the customer spread decline is as such, but the NIM in basically Spain was basically flat in the quarter because we do have this more than EUR 50 billion ALCO book that we do think we did fix at the right time. The average yield of that book is at 3%. That is helping, obviously, in the NIM overall, but on the customer spread specifically and on the lending specifically, what you see is that the front book yields are now better than the back book yields, which is also a signal that the curve is coming now to the end. We are growing in some areas, especially consumer and SME, which typically will help us in terms of mix going forward and in terms of spread. In short, we do think we are basically very close to the bottom of the customer spreads in Spain.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Now, going back to Mexico, as you said, slight increase. You also asked about deposits, sorry, in Spain in deposits because there was a large growth of wholesale deposits in the quarter, and that has basically created a mix effect on the deposit costs. As you know, our deposit prices, as compared to other Spanish peers, are much lower. The decline versus a starting point much lower is going to be much less. That is the reason. The key reason in the quarter was the mix. Mexico, again, the overall message is that we should be seeing some stabilization slightly below around these levels. The reason that it has increased a bit in the quarter is, again, a bit mixed because we have grown much more in the retail lending book versus the corporate lending book.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

These levels, in our view, are relatively close to the levels that you would be seeing going forward as well.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Yeah, I would add to that on the Mexican front, Onur, that as you know and everybody knows, we maintain NAI sensitivity in Mexico of around 2.5% to 100 basis points movement. That 2.5% is actually around 1.9% on the Mexican peso side. As you know, rates in Mexico have come down very significantly since the rate peak at 11.25%. Now we're expecting rates to come down to 7% this year, moving on to what we think are going to be more terminal rates of 6.5% next year, with a downward bias depending on how the strength of the peso and the macroeconomic policies go. In general, we see those rates stabilizing.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

I think the positive news is that that significant rate decline with that sensitivity that I just mentioned of 1.9% to 100 basis point movement has been very much absorbed on the NAI side by excellent, I think, price management, also on the cost of deposits, which keep on being quite resilient and very much below our peers, which now have a cost of deposits of around 4.7%, more or less.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Maybe on Mexico, one final thing to remind, we mentioned it, I think, in the past. In the 2020-2021 period, the interest rates in Mexico were around 4.25%, if I don't remember incorrectly. 4.25% was the central bank rate. Even in that environment, we had basically 10% margin. Since then, we have improved the mix of the loan book in such a way that you would see these double-digit, more than 10% margins are quite resilient and quite expected in Mexico going forward.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you very much, Paco. Next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Benjamin Toms at RBC. Ben, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Benjamin Toms, European Banks Analyst at RBC]

Morning both, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one's on group costs, which are running up about 11% year over year. That's broad in line with your inflation footprint. Do you have any additional levers you can pull going into 2026? I appreciate your footprint is different, but your largest peer is guiding the flat, the slightly down costs. That just seems quite a large gap in aspirations here. Maybe you feel the cost growth is a natural consequence of higher balance sheet growth. Secondly, you've broken out today some more details on the rest of the business division. Can you remind us what your ambitions are for your global Corporate & Investment Banking business? How fast do you think that business can grow by over the next three years? Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Maybe you do costs, Luisa, and I do CIB?

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Yes, I think that the group costs were also affected quarter on quarter by the impact that we had of the one-offs in the second quarter. I think it's very important with regards to the cost that we are containing the cost increase in the different geographies. I think it's important to highlight the Mexican efficiency plans that were carried out at the beginning of the year in terms of headcount reviews and revisions. Also in Colombia, Spain is containing costs, I think, very well with that 1.9% increase year on year. I think what we need to really look at with our strategic business plan going forward is that cost-to-income level. We are very much focusing on cost-to-income, ensuring that we have the right operational leverage, as long as we continue to invest in the franchises, which I think is very important for us.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

In this regard, we do think that the cost-to-income target of 35% at the end of our period, the 2028 number, is very much our focus. We have, as you know, the low 30s in Spain, low 30s in Mexico, low 30s in Turkey, cost-to-income ratios, and that's the way we are managing our cost side, investing, but at the same time being disciplined and ensuring that those investments generate revenues and allow us to achieve best-in-class efficiency ratios.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. On costs, I would just add, Benjamin, the topic of two principles that are really important for BBVA management. Number one, the concept of JAWS. Our costs should not be growing higher than our revenues. The second thing is we should grow in general because of the efficiencies that we are baking into the business every single day. We should not grow higher than inflation. The numbers that you mentioned, and also you compared with the competitors, I can judge who the competitor that you are comparing to is. You should look into the hyperinflationary countries and the country mix in that growth rate. We stick with our two very important principles, positive JAWS, less than inflation. On the CIB business, we already basically carved it out and then talked about it in the second quarter call.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

If you remember, in the second quarter call, we put some numbers, goals for this division as well. I would highlight only the two of them, which is revenue growth. We said would be around 20%. If you compound this 20%, the real goal that we have is that in the four-year period that we are looking into, we are going to double this business. Double this business. That's the aspiration. We are going to have in RORWA, and we, as you might have seen in the country pages that Luisa went through, we are now reporting RORWA, and RORWA will improve to more than 2% for that division, which then would yield, in our view, also very decent return on capital numbers. How are we going to do that? Basically, two things, two things, two very important strategic levers.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

We will talk more about this maybe in the following calls. Number one, cross-border trade finance focused, basically plain vanilla corporate banking, corporate banking, transaction banking focused, and basically entailing, going with our clients into these geographies that they also operate. We did realize that there are many clients of us in Mexico, in Spain, in South America, Turkey, many clients of us who do business outside of their home geographies, and we are not fairly represented. We have amazing relationships with them in their domestic business, but beyond their core geography, we don't basically serve them as well as we would like it to be. As such, we are going to be focusing on this multinational cross-border related business that we can tap into, and that's going to be a differential point for us.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

The second topic is again a bit we have asked as we were planning and as we were creating that plan, strategic plan on the CIB business, where we are different from others. The second topic is the institutional business. There are many institutional clients, funds, asset managers, insurance companies, and so on, which we believe can benefit from our presence once again across the globe. We are the market maker of Mexican peso securities, for example. If any institutional investor wants to buy a Mexican peso security, we are the bank. We have seen that many institutional clients were using our competitors. We are going to leverage our positioning and again our footprint, being in multiple geographies, would lead us to do better in the CIB business. The observation or the aspiration is doubling in four years.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you very much, Benjamin. Next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Sophie Peterson from Goldman Sachs. Sophie, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Sophie Peterson, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Yeah, hi. This is Sophie from Goldman Sachs. Thanks a lot for taking my question. My first question would be going back to Mexico. We have seen some press headlines that Revolut wants to be quite aggressive in Mexico. Nubank is already quite aggressive in terms of competition. How do you think about the competitive landscape? Do you feel competition has increased? If you could just remind us of BBVA's competitive strengths in Mexico. The second question is on inorganic growth opportunities and maybe also organic growth opportunities. Given that your capital position is quite solid and you have 40 to 50 basis points of capital tailwinds coming in the fourth quarter, do you think it would make sense to consider growing or looking at something outside of Spain? How do you think about inorganic growth opportunities across Europe? Would you consider that?

[Sophie Peterson, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Also, if you could remind us how the Italian and German kind of digital banks are going. Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Thank you, Sophie. Maybe I start with the second one. We are purely focused on organic growth from now on. I see what you're asking, but after the experience that we have had, I do think it's very fair that we will only focus on organic growth. We will always look into things, obviously. That's our job as well. Our plan, our numbers, our commitments that you see in the second quarter when we announced them and today is purely based on organic growth. You mentioned Germany and Italy. Our plan there is to grow through our digital banks. This is the first time that we are now putting numbers into that business. It is covered in the page that Luisa Gómez Bravo disclosed on Resto Business, which is mainly Corporate & Investment Banking business.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

In that page, you do see under the customer funds, there is a breakdown now which says digital banks. At the end of September, we had EUR 10 billion of deposits in that unit, which is Italy and Germany. We will continue to grow in those geographies. We are going much better than our original business plan. We are going faster than what we thought we would be doing at this point in time in both geographies. Germany even better, actually, as compared to Italy. Italy was an amazing experience, and Germany is doing even better. We will continue to grow through that business model, which is pure digital banking, leveraging the infrastructure and leveraging the application and the technology base of Spain to grow in Italy and Germany with the digital banking proposition. That's going to be the plan there. Regarding Mexico and Luisa, please jump in as well.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

The only thing I would say is that I said it many times in the past. I keep repeating it. I do know. I do think it is important. What we have in Mexico, in my view, is just amazing. It's an amazing bank. If you have not been to Mexico, you cover us very nicely. Please do go there and then meet our management, meet our team there. It's an amazing bank. I mention this every quarter, but it is important to highlight once again. We have 44% market share in payrolls, all the cash flow-related products, transactionality-related products, which is the bedrock of our business. We have amazing positioning in the country. We have the best talent. We have the best brand power. We have the best client franchise in the country.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Let me not go more into it, but it's an amazing bank for multiple dimensions and not hard to replicate, with not easy to replicate assets and infrastructure. In that context, we take the newcomers, the neobanks, very seriously, really very seriously in Mexico. They are amazing companies in our view, but we are going to compete, and we are going to compete hard. What you see with these neobanks is that they are basically attacking two different markets. One is credit cards, typically. On credit cards, again, the brand power and the scale benefit that we have is very tough to beat because we come up with campaigns, rewards, and points for our customers because of our size. That is not very easy to be replicated by others. We are going to be fighting really hard in credit cards. You might have seen it in the figure.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

You can come up with that also in the numbers that we provide, but also the markets authority in Mexico publishes it. We have been gaining market share. Even in this environment, we have been gaining market share, even including all these neobanks. We have been gaining market share in credit cards in Mexico. We are going to compete hard, and we have a scale benefit, and we have a program which is very powerful that we think we will continue to gain market share independent of the newcomers. The second thing is the deposit market that they are competing on. Deposits, they are offering really very high rates. You might have seen it, but a year ago, they were offering 15% to deposits when the interest rate in the market, the central bank rate, was 11.25%.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

What we have defended then, when there was such a big difference, is going to be, in our view, easier for us going forward because now all of them basically reduced their rates because they cannot sustain those rates anymore. The latest that we see, most of these neobanks now, they are offering 7%, 8%, which we can compete even more easily. On that one, again, hard to replicate asset. Basically, one-third of our deposits are within this band of less than EUR 30,000, one-third. In that bucket, the average deposit size is EUR 790. It's a very small ticket, transactionality-driven, payroll account-driven, small ticket deposits. We will maintain that strength in our view going forward. Anything you want to add on the Mexican?

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

No, I would just end up saying that, as you know, the profitability of our Mexican franchise is well beyond the peers. We have a 28% ROE in Mexico versus the peers at 15%, and it is highlighting those strengths that Onur was mentioning. It is a universal bank with a number one NPS score of 70, above also all their competitors, including the neobanks. I think it is a very focused bank and doing exceptionally well. Nothing else to add.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. We are going to pick up some speed. Otherwise, we are not going to be done.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Next one?

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Yes, next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Alvaro Serrano from Morgan Stanley. Alvaro, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Alvaro Serrano, Head of European Banks Research at Morgan Stanley]

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. It's good to be back. On Mexico, maybe a follow-up on this latest question on Mexico. I completely agree that you've got the best franchise in Mexico and very difficult to replicate anywhere in the world. My question is more to try to pick your brains on the medium term. If you look at, is there a level of market share where some of the incumbents, sort of the challengers, sorry, could get to where they start to be more of a scale competitor? Maybe not for you, but for others, sort of the second layer of competitors after you, I'm thinking Santander and some of the others, which could start to put more competition. Is there a level of market share which we should be looking out for?

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

There.

[Alvaro Serrano, Head of European Banks Research at Morgan Stanley]

Because when I look at your deposit, it's true that you very successfully reduced the deposit yield, but the mix is slightly sort of increasing to more savings and time. I wonder if that's reflective of competition. The second question is on delinquencies on Turkey and Argentina, in particular Turkey. They're ticking up as it was expected, and you had guided for. Should we expect this for a few more quarters? Any color you can give on that as to when, how many more quarters would you expect NPLs to continue to tick up there or any hand-holding there? Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. There was a noise. If you don't capture all the questions that you asked, Alvaro, please let us know. What strength do we have? We discussed about Mexico, but you're asking whether the second layer of competitors can come along and so on. I go back to the same thing. The strength that we have in Mexico is so unmatched in our view, the scale benefit, but also more the client franchise and the underlying business franchise. Of course, many others will come along, but we will maintain our position. You see that in the last five years, in the last three years, we have been gaining market share. In this last year, only in the last year, we have gained 49 basis points market share in the lending market share with the profitabilities that Luisa just mentioned.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Once again, we think it's a unique franchise, and we'll continue to build upon that. When others, where they can go, I don't know. If you're asking about the neobanks, one of the competitors there in Mexico, obviously, is Nubank, which is originally from Brazil. In Brazil, they do have a market share. When you look into their market share evolution, what you would see is that they started well. They are now at 3.5% market share in credit cards. Again, very credible competitor. We take them really seriously. Relatively speaking, their curve is now going lower than Brazil. Where they can get to, we don't know. We are going to fight hard, and we are going to compete hard. I don't think we will be the ones who would be losing market share. You ask about deposits, savings, and time.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

You said that the time has gone up slightly more in the quarter. True. I mentioned this very clearly in the previous calls as well. Nacho kept asking me about this many times. When the rates were much higher, 11.25%, and the central bank rate was 11.25%, we decided to be a bit out of the deposit market. We wanted to fund ourselves through wholesale funding. When rates are very high, heating up the competition doesn't help us. Doesn't help, doesn't help. When rates come down, and as you know, again, the latest central bank rate now is 7.5%, we now want to go back to the deposit market a bit. That's what we did, especially in the corporate segment, in the wholesale segment, company segment. We have acquired some deposits, and that's why you have seen the time deposits going up.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

In our view, you have seen that our loan-to-deposit ratio versus the changes that you have seen a year ago and so on is now going to be not there. We are going to grow in deposits going forward in this context of a lower interest rate environment. That's the reason. It was very purposeful, a very clear part of a strategy that we have employed, and now we are coming back a bit to the deposit market. That's the reason for the mixed change. About asset quality in Turkey and Argentina, Luisa?

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Yes, in Turkey, I think that the numbers that we're seeing are very much within the guidance that we've given to the market at the beginning of the year, the 180 basis points. It's true that quarter on quarter, the comparisons are affected, obviously, by macro adjustments, but also by big ticket releases, especially that we had in the second quarter. What I would say with regards to underlying asset quality is that we are seeing the NPL ratios and the asset quality of the retail portfolios stabilizing at the current level. I think that that is good news in the sense that we had an increase in rates at the beginning of the year, and rates now should be coming down going forward into the next year.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Having said that, I think 180 basis points is a cost of risk that is not a normalized cost of risk within a country like Turkey. We've had higher cost of risk in the past. I think that the positive news is that those retail portfolios are stabilizing in terms of cost of risk. Going forward, I think that the numbers will see what they look like. In general, when we guided, I think we guided for around 200 basis points through our mid-term, long-term plan. In Turkey, or should we move to Argentina?

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

No, Argentina.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Argentina is a little bit of a different story. In Argentina, we had been seeing already in the second quarter, I would say, a sharp increase in stage three and defaults, especially in the retail portfolios. This is obviously due to inflation coming down quickly, but also very high real interest rates, which moved sharply in the third quarter. As you all know, we had rates touching 60% in October versus inflation of around 31%. This has created a significant increase in deterioration in the asset quality metrics, again, especially in the retail portfolios. We are already deciding and taking decisions regarding the origination. You've seen in the third quarter that the quarter-on-quarter growth in Argentina slowed down significantly. We grew 10% versus the 21% in the second quarter.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Specifically, we are curtailing our growth in credit cards and consumers, where loan production in the quarter fell 9%, focusing our growth towards more the commercial segment, which we feel is better. We will see how the macro develops. We think that the continued focus on the macro policies and decreasing inflation and decreasing rates should be supportive for a better environment. We still need to see, I think, there quarter-on-quarter how things develop, again, especially on the retail portfolios.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. On asset quality, Alvaro, I would finalize by saying that as compared to what we were thinking at the beginning of the year, in Spain, in Mexico for sure, Colombia, Peru, we have done much better than what we thought we would do in asset quality. Turkey is completely in line. Argentina is worse than what we expected because the real rates in Argentina are so high now that it is creating a load on the Argentinian lending book. Overall, this has been, in my view, a positive highlight of the year. We are quite positive going forward as well.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Very good. Thank you, Alvaro. Next question, please.

[Alvaro Serrano, Head of European Banks Research at Morgan Stanley]

The next question comes from Ignacio Ulargui from BNP Paribas. Ignacio, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Ignacio Ulargui, Iberian Banks Analyst at BNP Paribas]

Thanks very much for the presentation. Good morning, everyone. I have one question. When I just look to the capital, you have covered organic and inorganic growth. I would just wanted to ask, on the core side, I mean, could be any chance that you do or launch another restructuring plan in any of your geographies, thinking broadly about Spain or Mexico in terms of trying to control further cost growth, or that would be ruled out at this stage? Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. Again, let's pick up some pace, Nacho. The plan that we have put forward, that we are executing, and that we will deliver on does not incorporate any restructuring plan, as they call it, ERE in Spain, into the plan at all. We always look for productivity. Luisa Gómez Bravo mentioned it in the second quarter call and also partially today. We are always looking for productivity improvements. You might remember this in the first quarter of this year. Actually, it wasn't a very official program, but we have reduced our employee base in Mexico, for example. We will always look for these productivity enhancement initiatives. I wouldn't call them a program, but the restructuring program, in the sense that you mean it, is not incorporated into the plan.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you, Nacho. Next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Carlos Peixoto from CaixaBank. Carlos, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Carlos Peixoto, Equity Research of Banks, Insurance, and Financial Services at CaixaBank]

Yes, hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. The first one was actually on the 20% ROTE target that you had announced previously for 2025. Do you see that as still achievable? I do reckon that the capital base is quite wide given the current capital excess. Should we still see that as something doable, or should we focus more on the actual bottom line number around EUR 12 billion? On the second question regarding Turkey, in light of the ongoing evolution, the previous target or the previous quarters, you had guided us towards slightly below EUR 1 billion net profit target for Turkey. Do you see that still achievable, or should we be thinking more of something below EUR 900 million, as the nine-month annualized figure seems to suggest? Thank you very much.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. Thank you, Carlos. As always, 20% for the year. As you said, the excess capital has built up in the denominator of the ratio. Now that we are starting the share buybacks tomorrow morning, it will help as well, but we are still committing to that number, yes. About Turkey, we are not giving guidance for the coming year yet. The only thing I would tell you is that for this year, we said first EUR 1 billion, but it was very clear. I remember it very, very clearly.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Because there was even a footnote in that presentation, in the first quarter's presentation, saying that that EUR 1 billion was under the scenario of, if I don't remember it incorrectly, about 26.5% inflation and 31% interest rate. There was also an FX depreciation assumption. Under this scenario, it will be EUR 1 billion. Once we realized in the second quarter that those assumptions would be very tough to achieve for the macro, we said somewhat below EUR 1 billion. This year, we still stick with it. For next year, we will do it in the next quarterly call.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Very good. Thank you, Carlos. Next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Ignacio Cerizo from UBS. Ignacio, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Ignacio Cerizo, Analyst at UBS]

Yeah, hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. There's two quick ones, hopefully. The first one is on the approval of the buyback process by the ECB. If you can give us some indication about the timing and if it can be announced, actually, in the middle of the quarter when the approval is given and we need to wait for the full year results. The second one on Turkey. If you can give us a bit of a sense, actually, of how far are we from the customer spread you think you can achieve and the rates, actually, in the 20%, 25% region you're targeting. I mean, how quickly, actually, can we get there? How far are we from the normalized, if you can actually, customer spread in Turkey? Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. On the approval of the share buyback, we cannot, as you have seen, disclose the specific amount that we asked for approval for and so on, because there is a clear regulation or clear guidance on this from the ECB, saying that unless it is fully approved, it cannot be announced and the amount cannot be known. We initiated the process last week. It is in the process now. The legal maximum that they would use is four months, actually. As you can imagine, given the excess capital that we have, given all the dialogue that we have with them, we do expect it to be much earlier than that time frame. We are dependent on the ECB for their approval to be done. Once we receive the approval, it can be tomorrow. It can be two months. It can be less.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Once we receive the approval, we will announce it, yes. On the Turkey customer spread, Nacho, it goes back to how fast the interest rates are going to come down. You might know this already, obviously, but 39.5% is the latest central bank rate, 39.5%. We were expecting it to be, as I said, at the beginning of the year, at 31%. It is coming down much slower than what everyone anticipated, because inflation has turned out to be much more sticky than otherwise. This country is still on, in our view, a very positive path. It is on a path of normalization. They stick with the clear aspiration to reduce inflation and, as a result, also reduce the interest rates. Once interest rates come down, we will be giving you in the next call all the expectations for the coming year.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Obviously, our expectation is that interest rates will continue to come down. Once that happens, the spread will normalize as well. Until that happens, it is going to be very challenged. One other thing that I should mention is that the customer spread and NEM, the difference between the two, is actually larger in Turkey than in all the other markets. In Turkey, there is a repo facility, again, at 39.5% for the central bank. You can fund yourself a bit with the repo and also through swaps, 39.5%. Our cost of funding is higher, because there are, beyond the availability of funding mechanisms, certain regulatory ratios, one being very specific, the Turkish lira deposits divided by the total deposits. There are certain ratios that we have to satisfy every month, which is basically creating a deposit market at a higher price than other cheaper available funding opportunities.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

NEM, as much as we can use those others, and we cannot use them all the time, but the NEM would be better than the customer spread going forward. When you use the repo facility, you would be optimizing the cost of funding a bit for the whole bank. In the quarter, for example, you haven't seen the spread in Turkey improve too much, the customer spread, but you would realize that the NEM has improved by 65 basis points, more or less. Mainly because we tapped into a cheaper funding resource, which is the repo market, as much as we can in the context of those regulatory restrictions that I talked to you about. That has helped us improve NAI in a very good way.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you very much. To the next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Borja Ramirez from Citi. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[Borja Ramirez, Director of Banks Equity Research at Citi]

Hello. Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I have two. Firstly, on capital, you're showing a very strong capital position. I think you mentioned that maybe SRTs coming in Q4. I would like to ask if you could provide some details. Linked to this, I see some upside to the EUR 13 billion of capital available for distribution in the short term. This would be my first question. My second question would be, in Spain, you are gaining market share quite nicely. I would like to ask if there are any, on this point, any learnings from when you're analyzing this about the transaction in the Spanish market. Maybe you've learned about new ways to gain share. Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

OK. The first one, SRTs, Luisa?

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

Yes. As Onur mentioned, in the quarter, we did five basis points of SRTs. We've done a total of around EUR 8.2 billion RWA SRT transactions, or SRT-able transactions. We also do and have engaged also this quarter on asset sales that you've also seen in the NPL ratios in Spain. I would say that the target that we had this year, and going forward, by the way, is to generate around between 30 to 40 basis points of capital through SRTs. Obviously, in the first nine months of the year, we're already at 28 basis points and will be within that range, comfortably in the fourth quarter. It depends on the deal flows and the approvals process.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

The quarter will be obviously higher than the third quarter and will be above, obviously, very much above the 30 basis points in general, in that context of the fourth quarter being better than the third quarter. In general, I would say 30 to 40 basis points is what we can expect from SRTs capital generation going forward.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Perfect. The second question was on market share, any learnings from Sabadell and so on. I'll go to the market share directly. Borja, we are gaining market share everywhere except Peru, actually, because of the Corporate & Investment Banking, the large corporate lending book. Because of the pricing, we are a bit out of that market, and because of mortgages in Spain, because of the pricing there, we are in this business. Our people, we have amazing people in the bank, and we will go for profitable growth, gaining market share. In the case of Spain, you might not see it fully in the breakdown, but we are gaining market share, 21 basis points in the year in total loans. It is basically negatively affected from mortgages, as I just mentioned, since the beginning of this year, given the lack of profitability in that market. We are out.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

We lost 30 basis points in mortgages, but we are gaining market share, public sector, consumer. We gained 58 basis points in the companies' segment in Spain, 58 basis points in a year, and we will keep doing what we know well: go after clients and provide our service, because we have amazing people. In short, we already have our own medicine, and we will replicate what we have been doing in the past five years. In the past five years, by the way, in the companies' segment, we gained 200 basis points. We will do what we know well, and we will continue to gain market share.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you very much, Borja. Next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Britta Schmidt from Autonomous Research. Britta, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Britta Schmidt, Senior Analyst of Spanish and Italian Banks at Autonomous Research]

Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. A couple of clarifications, please. With regards to Turkey and the net interest income development, the repo financing that you mentioned, is that what Garanti talked about when he mentioned opportunistic liquidity management? Is that something that is quite sticky? I'm trying to figure out what the outlook is for the net interest income going forward. Secondly, could you just help us quantifying the net impact of the IFRS 9 calibration and the macro updates on the EUR $1.6 billion loan losses this quarter? What would have been the underlying cost of risk in the quarter? Would that underlying run rate be a good steer for not just Q4, but also the next couple of quarters? Two questions related to capital and distributions very quickly. Can you give us any expected impact on operational risk RWA changes in Q4?

[Britta Schmidt, Senior Analyst of Spanish and Italian Banks at Autonomous Research]

Maybe also clarify what you mean with the pending approval from governing bodies for the significant new share buyback program. Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. Let me start with the last one, Britta, very quickly. I mean, we only wait for the ECB approval. Once we receive the approval, the specifics of how much, whether it's externalized, and so on, it is also subject, obviously, to the board approval. The only requirement that we have is the ECB. On the first one, on the Turkish situation, it is in the context that I just explained. I gave some details. I don't want to go into too much detail. You are now asking it again. Maybe I do a bit more. As I mentioned, the customer spread didn't improve too much in Turkey. NEM has increased by 67 basis points. Why? Because in Turkey, we now have a situation where interest rate declines are not immediately being reflected in the customer spread.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Rates come down, but the deposit rates do not come down as much. Why? Because of some of the restrictions that I mentioned to you. In Turkish lira deposits, the supervisors, central bank in this case, have a certain ratio of TL deposits over total that needs to be satisfied. Otherwise, you are penalized. As a result, there is a big competition in the deposit market to deliver those restrictions, the requirements. As a result, deposit prices are higher than wholesale funding opportunities. As long as those restrictions are as such, you might see that the customer spread doesn't improve as much. You would see that the NAI and NEM improve. The rate declines would be converted into real value generation, value creation, maybe not completely through customer spread improvement, but through the NEM improvement, because we can be tapping into those.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Obviously, we have our own restrictions and our risk management metrics and so on. We can tap into those cheaper funding resources as long as the situation is such. You are asking more of the sustainability of this. Can you expect more of this going forward? The answer is yes. If rates come down and that rate decline is not very much converted in the customer spread, you would see that NEM decline would be there, not maybe as much, but would be there. The customer spread would not be moving ahead too much. I hope I'm clear. If not, we have many details on this. You can call the IR team to get more on this one. On the provisions, the macro and so on, we don't disclose that, as you know, Britta.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

The only thing I would say to you is that the business as usual, if you incorporate all the two things, actually, the macro impact and also the annual recalibration impact, if you isolate for those, the business as usual would have been better, slightly better. Not too much, but slightly better would have been. There was another question, Luisa. The tough ones, you get them.

[Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA]

On the operational RWAs, we have adjusted a little bit the number already in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter, we will update the operational RWAs with the actual related number. We don't expect a significant impact from operational RWAs in the fourth quarter.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you, Britta. Next question, please.

[Operator]

The next question comes from Marina Correa from Jefferies. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.

[Marina Correa, Analyst at Jefferies]

Hi, Marina. Can you take some?

[Marina Correa, Analyst at Jefferies]

Sorry for asking my question. I just had one on your return on tangible equity guidance for this. Hello?

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Yes, you can hear me, Marina?

[Marina Correa, Analyst at Jefferies]

Can you hear me?

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Yes, please. Go ahead.

[Marina Correa, Analyst at Jefferies]

Perfect. Sorry. My question was around your 20% return on tangible equity guidance for this year. Obviously, that implies quite a strong performance in Q4 versus Q3. Could you please just walk us through the moving parts in the increase in return on tangible equity quarter on quarter in Q4 that we are expecting to see to hit the guidance?

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

I partially mentioned it in one of the previous questions. You should also look into the denominator, because we would be doing share buybacks. The equity pays would be coming down. It's not just the numerator, which is the profit, but also the denominator that would be affected in the quarter. That number is for the full year. When we look into the numbers, we are at those levels, basically.

[Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA]

Thank you, Marina. Next question, please.

[Operator]

A quick reminder that star wants to ask a question today. The next question comes from Fernando Gil de Santivañes from Intesa Sanpaolo. Fernando, please go ahead. Your line is open.

[Fernando Gil de Santivañes, Senior Bank Analyst at Intesa Sanpaolo]

Thank you for taking my questions. Two quick ones. One, regarding Spain, I see loan growth in the quarter being flat, mainly explained by public sectors. Can you comment on these trends in the public sector if there's anything I should be looking at? Second, regarding Spain and the litigation and the appeal that you guys presented against the Supreme Courts and against the government measures due to the merger, is the bank going to proceed with that? Finally, a short one, have you done any update on the hedging strategy regarding Argentina and the latest events after the elections and the intervention in FX markets? Thank you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Very good. Let me do it very quickly, if that's OK, Luisa. On the public sector, there are some one-offs in there. You cannot expect 20% growth year over year, every quarter. You should see that the public sector is going to be quite positively reflected in the growth rate of Spain lending book going forward for one reason. The local governments in Spain, for many years, did not use bank financing, because there was a central scheme that they could have been financing themselves from the central government. Now, the bank financing is coming into play. You would see decent growth going forward, not maybe at these levels, because there were some one-offs here, but you would see good, decent growth. The Supreme Court, we don't comment on the legal proceedings of the bank.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

The hedging strategy of Argentina, given the costs of hedging in Argentina, we have not been hedging. We will continue to be not hedging Argentina. It's so small also for the whole account that we can live with it without hedging.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

Thank you very much, Fernando. Next question, please.

[Operator]

We have no further questions at this time. I'll hand the call back to you.

[Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA]

OK. Thank you very much, everyone, for joining this call. Thank you for participating with your questions. If you have any further questions or clarifications, please reach out to the IR team. Thank you very much.

Participants

Analysts

• Alvaro Serrano, Head of European Banks Research at Morgan Stanley
• Antonio Reale, Co-Head of European Banks Equity Research at Bank of America
• Benjamin Toms, European Banks Analyst at RBC
• Borja Ramirez, Director of Banks Equity Research at Citi
• Britta Schmidt, Senior Analyst of Spanish and Italian Banks at Autonomous Research
• Carlos Peixoto, Equity Research of Banks, Insurance, and Financial Services at CaixaBank
• Fernando Gil de Santivañes, Senior Bank Analyst at Intesa Sanpaolo
• Francisco Riquel, Head of Research at Alantra
• Ignacio Cerizo, Analyst at UBS
• Ignacio Ulargui, Iberian Banks Analyst at BNP Paribas
• Luisa Bravo, CFO at BBVA
• Maks Mishyn, Equity Research at JB Capital
• Marina Correa, Analyst at Jefferies
• Onur Genç, CEO at BBVA
• Patricia Olalla, Head of Investor Relations at BBVA
• Sophie Peterson, Analyst at Goldman Sachs