CNO Financial Group Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
November 4, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Record sales momentum: Total new annualized premiums (NAP) reached a record $125 million, up 26% year-over-year, with double-digit growth across consumer and worksite lines and consecutive quarters of agent income and sales expansion.
  • Negative Sentiment: Exit and impairment of fee services: CNO recorded a $96.7 million goodwill/intangible impairment tied to WebBenefits/DirectPath and expects additional exit charges of $15–$20 million in 4Q25 as it winds down the fee services business, which had been a ~ $20 million pretax annual loss.
  • Positive Sentiment: Second Bermuda reinsurance treaty boosts capital and cash flow: Effective Oct 1, CNO seeded ~ $1.8 billion of supplemental health statutory reserves to Bermuda and will cede 50% of new supplemental health business, enabling management to raise excess holding-company cash flow guidance to $365–$385 million.
  • Positive Sentiment: Stronger ROE outlook: Management raised its 2027 operating ROE improvement target to 200 basis points (from 150 bps), saying the Bermuda treaty plus the fee-services exit should accelerate ROE improvement by ~50 bps through 2027.
  • Positive Sentiment: Solid underlying financial performance: operating EPS was $1.29 (up 16%), new-money investment rates have topped 6% for 11 quarters, and book value per diluted share (ex-AOCI) rose to $38.10 (up 6%).
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
CNO Financial Group Q3 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Hello everyone, and thank you for joining us today for the CNO Financial Group third quarter earnings call. My name is Sammy, and I'll be coordinating your call today. During the presentation, you can register a question by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two on your telephone keypad to remove yourself from the question queue. I would now like to hand over to your host, Adam Auvil, from CNO, to begin. Please go ahead, Adam.

Adam Auvil
Adam Auvil
Head of Investor Relations at CNO Financial Group

Good morning, and thank you for joining us on CNO Financial Group's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today's presentation will include remarks from Gary Bhojwani, Chief Executive Officer, and Paul McDonough, Chief Financial Officer. Following the presentation, we will also have other business leaders available for the question-and-answer period. During this conference call, we will be referring to information contained in yesterday's press release. You can obtain the release by visiting the media section of our website at cnoinc.com. This morning's presentation is also available in the investors' section of our website and was filed in a Form 8-K yesterday. Let me remind you that any forward-looking statements we make today are subject to a number of factors which may cause actual results to be materially different than those contemplated by the forward-looking statements.

Adam Auvil
Adam Auvil
Head of Investor Relations at CNO Financial Group

Today's presentation contains a number of non-GAAP measures which should not be considered as substitutes for the most directly comparable GAAP measures. You'll find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP measures to the corresponding GAAP measures in the appendix. Throughout the presentation, we'll be making performance comparisons, and unless otherwise specified, any comparisons made will refer to changes between third quarter 2025 and third quarter 2024. And with that, I'll turn the call over to Gary.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Thanks, Adam. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Starting at slide four, CNO once again delivered a strong quarter demonstrating our capabilities to generate consistent, repeatable results and execute on our strategic plan. We remain focused on growing earnings and improving profitability. To do so, we have taken action on two items that we expect will accelerate Operating ROE improvement through 2027 by an additional 50 basis points. First, the execution of a second Bermuda treaty and second changes to our worksite division's fee services business. Further details will be provided later in our prepared remarks. Sales results in the quarter were excellent, including record total new annualized premiums of $125 million, up 26%, and double-digit insurance sales growth in both divisions. We also delivered our 13th consecutive quarter of strong insurance sales and our 11th consecutive quarter of growth in producing agent income.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

I'll cover these results in more detail in each division's comments. Operating earnings per diluted share were $1.29, up 16%. Earnings continue to benefit from favorable insurance product margin and solid investment results, reflecting growth in the business and expansion of the portfolio book yield. New money rates have exceeded 6% for 11 consecutive quarters now, while maintaining portfolio quality. Capital and liquidity remain above target levels. We returned $76 million to shareholders in the quarter and $310 million year-to-date. Book value per diluted share, excluding AOCI, was $38.10, up 6%. Paul will go into greater detail on our financial performance. Turning to slide five, nearly all of our growth scorecard metrics were up for the quarter. As a reminder, our growth scorecard focuses on three key drivers of our performance: production, distribution, and investments in capital. I'll discuss each division in the next two slides.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Paul will cover investments in capital in more detail during his remarks. Beginning with the consumer division on slide six, the consumer business delivered another quarter of excellent sales results and our 12th consecutive quarter of sustained growth. Nearly all product lines were up, most by double digits. Steady execution and our dedication to serving the middle-income market continue to fuel our growth. Life and Health NAP once again posted double-digit growth in the quarter of 27%. We are pleased with our life business results, including total life insurance up 33% and record direct-to-consumer life insurance sales up 56%. Our DOC results benefited from three key factors. First, process and technology enhancements continue to drive sales productivity. Second, we have been proactively diversifying our direct marketing away from television to include more web, digital, and third-party channels.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Non-TV lead sources combined generated 72% of all DOC life sales in the quarter. Lastly, our DOC results were bolstered by increased direct marketing spend by some of our third-party partners. We don't expect this level of spending to repeat in the fourth quarter, which is traditionally the lowest selling quarter of the year for the DOC channel. Our approach to partnerships is intentionally selective, ensuring that distributors complement our existing capabilities and target markets that are different from our typical customer base. This strategy enables us to conduct rapid experiments with minimal investments that augment our in-house development and testing. Sustained growth in our health results continues to underscore strong customer demand for practical solutions to protect against out-of-pocket gaps in medical coverage and the growing cost of healthcare. Total Health NAP was up 21%, which marks 13 consecutive quarters of growth.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Supplemental Health was up 23%, and Long-Term Care was up 7%. Medicare Supplement was up 33%. Medicare Advantage policies sold, which are not reflected in NAP, were down 24%. Our Medicare results reflect a growing shift in consumer preferences from Medicare Advantage to Medicare Supplement, reversing a decade-long trend. As many of the leading MA sponsors pare back plans and benefits, more customers are moving to Medicare Supplement plans. With more than 11,000 people in the U.S. turning 65 every day, overall demand for Medicare products continues to grow, and we have an opportunity to continue to expand the total number of households we serve. Annuity collected premiums were up 2% in the quarter, our ninth consecutive quarter of growth. Collected premiums in the quarter totaled nearly $475 million, our third highest quarter of all time.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Average account size was up 5%, and in-force account values were up 8%, exceeding $13 billion for the first time. Our captive distribution and the long-term relationships that our agents establish with their clients add stability to our annuity block. We delivered our 10th consecutive quarter of brokerage and advisory growth. Client assets in brokerage and advisory were up 28% and hit a new record, surpassing $5 billion. Total accounts and average account size were each up 13%. When combined with our annuity account values, our clients now entrust us with more than $18 billion of their assets, up 13%. Agent productivity and retention continue to support our sustained sales momentum. Producing agent income grew for the 11th consecutive quarter, and registered agent income was up 6%. Investments in technology continue to enable customer experience enhancements and drive operational efficiency.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

For example, accelerated underwriting on a portion of our simplified life products delivered an 89% instant decision rate on submitted policies in the quarter, up 11%. Next, slide seven and our worksite division performance. As a reminder, our worksite division encompasses two primary components: insurance products and fee services. First, insurance product sales are the larger part of our worksite business, which once again delivered record sales and our 14th consecutive quarter of growth. I'll touch on our third quarter performance shortly. We have a long and successful history of selling insurance at the worksite. We like the profile and growth of this business. The second component is our fee services business, which was added through the acquisitions of WebBenefits Design in 2019 and DirectPath in 2021. This includes benefits administration technology and education, advocacy, and communication services.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

This business is small, representing less than 1% of total CNO revenue and contributing a pre-tax annual loss of approximately $20 million. In October, we decided to streamline our worksite operations and exit the fee services business to sharpen our focus on the core insurance business and align resources to proven growth areas. We expect the exit process to be substantially complete in the first half of 2026. After several years of strategic investment, worksite fee services has not met our expectations for financial performance or in delivering new insurance customers. Additionally, competition has intensified with lower-cost alternatives and new technologies disrupting our market position. Paul will provide more detail on the financial impacts of this decision, which we expect to be favorable to earnings and return on equity. It was the right strategic decision for CNO, and it was not made lightly.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

We remain grateful to the associates who supported this business and thank them for their service and dedication to our clients and customers. It is important to emphasize that we remain fully committed to our worksite insurance products and distribution. Worksite insurance sales have never been stronger. The division adds valuable diversification and balance to our model. Turning to our results in the quarter. We delivered another record performance for insurance sales with worksite life and health NAP up 20%. This represents our seventh consecutive quarter of record NAP growth and our 14th consecutive quarter of overall NAP growth. Highlights included life insurance sales, up 24%. Hospital indemnity insurance, up 53%. Critical illness insurance, up 17%, and accident insurance, up 15%. Strategic growth initiatives contributed significantly to our worksite NAP performance.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Our geographic expansion initiative delivered 42% of the NAP growth in the quarter, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth from this program. Recent investments in training and sales tools continue to enhance agent productivity. Worksite recruiting was up 5% in the quarter, and agent productivity was up 15%. Producing agent income was up 9%, our 13th consecutive quarter of growth. As supported by our strong results, we remain bullish on worksite insurance growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 and beyond, and with that, I'll turn it over to Paul.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Thank you, Gary, and good morning, everyone. Before turning to my remarks on the quarter, I'd like to first comment on our second reinsurance treaty with our Bermuda affiliate. Effective October 1st, we have seeded approximately $1.8 billion of supplemental health U.S. statutory reserves and will seed 50% of new supplemental health business from our Indiana-domiciled Washington National Insurance Company to our Bermuda Reinsurance Company. We are proud to deepen our commitment to the Bermuda insurance community with this transaction. We are actively exploring additional transactions with our U.S. and Bermuda regulators, which in aggregate position us better to carry out our mission of serving middle-income consumers. Turning to the financial highlights on slide eight. We had another strong quarter across both operating earnings and capital, reflecting favorable trends in insurance product margins, investment income, and continued expense and capital discipline.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

The expense ratio was 18.6% in the quarter and 19.0% on a trailing 12-month basis. Investment income was modestly unfavorable to expectations due to underperformance in our worksite fee services business. We continue to manage to our capital and hold core liquidity targets while deploying $60 million in excess capital on share repurchases in the quarter. This contributed to an 8% reduction in weighted average diluted shares outstanding. On a trailing 12-month basis, operating return on equity was 12.1%. And 11.2%. Excluding significant items. For the third quarter, we are recording an impairment of $96.7 million in non-operating income on the goodwill and intangibles associated with the acquisitions of WebBenefits Design and DirectPath. This impairment reflects updated financial projections for the fee services side of our worksite business, considering recent performance and an increasingly competitive market.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Additionally, as Gary previously discussed, in October, we decided to exit the worksite fee services business. We anticipate that decision will result in charges estimated to be in the range of $15 million-$20 million, which will also be reported in non-operating income. The timing of the exit charges will be primarily in the fourth quarter of 2025. We expect this exit decision, together with the new Bermuda treaty, will improve operating return on equity starting in 4Q25, with the full effects emerging over the next five quarters through year-end 2026. The bulk of the ROE improvement relates to the exit of worksite fee services and stems from the elimination of pre-tax operating losses previously associated with the fee income segment, as well as the effects of the Q3 impairment and exit charges on shareholders' equity. I'll elaborate on the ROE impacts in a moment when I get to the guidance slide.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Turning to slide nine, total insurance product margin was strong in the quarter. All major product categories were up year-over-year, reflecting growth in the business. And mostly favorable underlying trends. In other annuities, the prior period results benefited from reserve releases due to higher mortality on larger closed-block policies. And sup results reflect higher claims year-over-year, but improved results sequentially. Life margins reflect lower advertising spend in our traditional life business, partially offset by higher policy benefits in interest-sensitive life. Finally, our annual actuarial review resulted in a $41.3 million favorable impact to operating income. This was driven by net favorable assumption updates, including most notably favorable lapse rates in supplemental health and surrender rates in fixed index annuities, partially offset by unfavorable morbidity within Medicare Supplement.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Consistent with past years, we're calling this out as a significant item in the quarter and presenting the margin on this slide ex significant items. Turning to slide 10, we continue to deliver strong net investment income results. Q3 marks the 11th consecutive quarter the new money rate has exceeded 6%. And the eighth consecutive quarter of growth in total net investment income. The average yield on allocated investments was 4.91%, up 10 basis points year-over-year. The increase in yield, along with growth in the business, drove a 7% increase in net investment income allocated to products for the quarter. Investment income not allocated to product results reflect alternative investment income results better year-over-year, though slightly below our long-term run rate expectations. Lower option forfeitures as a result of lower annuity surrenders and lower in-the-money options.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

And lower NII from general account assets as the robust capital return in the last four quarters has reduced excess capital. Our new investments in the quarter comprised approximately $812 million of assets, with an average rating of single-A and an average duration of six years. Our new investments are summarized in more detail on slide 22 of the presentation. Turning to slide 11, our high-quality and liquid portfolio is producing solid and consistent results. Approximately 97% of our fixed maturity portfolio at quarter-end was investment-grade rated with an average rating of single-A, reflecting our up-in-quality bias over the last several years. Turning to slide 12, our capital position remains strong, with our primary capital and liquidity metrics in line with targets. Turning to slide 13 in our 2025 guidance.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Over the next five quarters, we anticipate the combined impact of the exit from the fee services business and the new Bermuda treaty will lead to 50 basis points of incremental operating return on equity over and above our previous projections for the 2025-2027 period. So we are revising our operating return on equity target for 2027 to an improvement of 200 basis points, up from the prior target of 150 basis points versus a run rate of approximately 10% in 2024. We are narrowing our operating earnings per share range to $3.75-$3.85 while maintaining the same midpoint. This adjustment reflects, among other things, an expense ratio of approximately 19%, down from the prior range of between 19.0% and 19.2%. An effective tax rate between 22% and 22.5%, compared to the prior estimate of approximately 23%. And fourth quarter fee income, approximately $2 million below 4Q 2024.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Reflecting lower fee income from our distribution of Medicare Advantage products due to the shift towards Medicare Supplement products and away from Medicare Advantage products, as Gary touched on, and no impact from the results of the worksite fee services business, which we will include in non-operating income beginning in 4Q as we exit that business. We are raising our guidance for excess cash flow to the holding company to a range of $365 million-$385 million. Up from $200 million-$250 million. Which incorporates the impact of our new Bermuda reinsurance transaction. Finally, no change to our target capital, holdco liquidity, and leverage targets, and with that, I'll turn it back to Gary.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Thanks, Paul. CNO delivered another strong quarter. Our performance continues to demonstrate the strength of our business model and our capabilities to generate consistent, repeatable results. We remain well-positioned to grow sales across both divisions, drive improved profitability, and, importantly, keep delivering on our promises to customers and stakeholders. We enter the fourth quarter with meaningful momentum, and we once again expect to end the year strong. Thank you to everyone who joined us in September for our CNO Investor Briefing on the Consumer Division. As a reminder, the webcast and materials from that session are available in the Investor Relations section of our website, cnoinc.com. We thank you for your support of and interest in CNO Financial Group. We will now open it up to questions. Operator.

Operator

Thank you very much. To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. If you're prepared to ask your question, please ensure your device is unmuted locally. Our first question comes from Ryan Krueger from Keefe, Bruyette & Woods. Your line is open, Ryan. Please go ahead.

Ryan Krueger
Ryan Krueger
Stock Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Hey, thanks. Good morning. My first question was on the really strong D2C sales. Can you give us a little bit more color on how much the new partnerships are contributing and kind of how to think about those relative to your D2C volumes, excluding these newer partnerships?

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Maybe I'll make some general comments, and then I'll let Paul fill in some of the precise numbers and growth rates and so on in terms of what we disclose. As I mentioned in the prepared remarks, Ryan, we're very selective about who we work with. I'll give you an example. We believe there's a material opportunity in the Hispanic market. We don't think we're well-positioned to tap that on our own, so we partnered with somebody to help us with that. It's those types of things that we are partnering with folks on. It is in addition to what we're doing relative to shifting from our dependence on television advertising. We expect that growth to continue very nicely.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

As we did reference, because some of the growth in Q3 was due to a pull forward of some advertising expenses and so on by our partners, we don't think the fourth quarter will be quite as strong, but we do believe we will continue to see good solid growth there. Paul, do you want to backfill any of the numbers or percentage growth rates that we disclose?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Good morning, Ryan. Consistent with our general practice of not providing specific guidance, I won't provide any here, but I would just echo Gary's comments. Directionally in terms of what you should expect.

Ryan Krueger
Ryan Krueger
Stock Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Got it. And then just a quick one. Is the current roughly $20 million annual earnings loss from the services business, does that flow through the fee income line from a reporting standpoint?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

It does. It's always been part of the fee income segment, and so you should see that segment, all else equal, improve on an annualized basis by about $20 million.

Ryan Krueger
Ryan Krueger
Stock Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Okay, got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from John Barnidge from Piper Sandler. Your line is open, John. Please go ahead.

John Barnidge
John Barnidge
Equity Research Executive at Piper Sandler

Thanks for the opportunity. Good morning. How do you view the opportunity, just kind of following up on the comments about actively exploring additional transactions, the total addressable market for remaining health, life, and long-term care liabilities that could be available to Bermuda? Thanks.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Hey, John, it's Paul. I'll take a first crack at that. So the question is, how much more might we see to Bermuda? I won't give you a specific quantitative answer, but I will say that we are looking at opportunities to seed additional business. We are looking at life in particular, which we think has some benefit, including among other things, the diversification, the cross products. As you know, we currently have FIAs. Now we have some health. So seeding some life reserves would increase the diversification. We continue to actively explore additional transactions with our U.S. and Bermuda regulators. And I would just emphasize the comment we made in our prepared remarks, which is that in aggregate, the Bermuda platform positions us better to carry out our mission of serving more middle-income consumers in what are very often underserved markets.

John Barnidge
John Barnidge
Equity Research Executive at Piper Sandler

Thank you for that answer, Paul. And my follow-up: Once DirectPath and WebBenefits Design fully wrapped up in the first half of 2026, does it seem reasonable that the direct expense ratio should fall given that that wasn't necessarily a profitable business? Thank you.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

So John, the $20 million annualized impact is really all in, including the expenses that were attached to that business. So that's really the expectation at a high level that you should see flow through in the wake of exiting that business.

John Barnidge
John Barnidge
Equity Research Executive at Piper Sandler

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joel Hurwitz from Dowling & Partners. Your line is open, Joe. Please go ahead.

Joel Hurwitz
Lead Life Insurance and Retirement Services Research Analyst at Dowling & Partners

Hey, good morning. Paul, on the assumption review. Any ongoing earnings benefits from the updates and any statutory impacts?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Sure. So on a GAAP basis, the only go-forward impact that's notable is in supplemental health, that $2 million quarterly. And then on a stat basis, I'll invite Jeremy to weigh in, our Chief Actuary.

John Barnidge
John Barnidge
Equity Research Executive at Piper Sandler

Yeah, thanks, Paul. No, there's no statutory impacts related to any of the unlocking.

Joel Hurwitz
Lead Life Insurance and Retirement Services Research Analyst at Dowling & Partners

Okay, got it. And then just two quick ones on the fee service exit. One, how much of your worksite insurance business is linked to these platforms that you're shutting down? And then in terms of that $20 million of a gap loss, is that equivalent to sort of, what the cash impact was from those businesses?

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Yeah, I'll take the first question, Joel. We don't expect any material adverse impact to our worksite insurance sales. I would point out, indeed, that's part of the reason we're exiting this business. It just hasn't delivered enough cross-selling and support and so on. We've been able to grow the insurance business and expect to continue to grow the insurance business without the support or the cross-sell of the fee business. So we expect minimal impact to the insurance sales and worksite. Paul?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Yeah, so the second part of your question, Joel, I think is the $20 million pretax GAAP earnings, a reasonable proxy for cash flow. And just thinking out loud, honestly a bit, I haven't thought of this specific question, but I think there aren't any significant delays in the cash impacts as opposed to the GAAP accruals. So I think so, Joel.

Joel Hurwitz
Lead Life Insurance and Retirement Services Research Analyst at Dowling & Partners

Okay. Thanks, guys.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Good. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Wilma Burdis from Raymond James. Your line is open, Wilma. Please go ahead.

Wilma Burdis
Wilma Burdis
Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James

Hey, good morning. Is there any way you could help us think a little bit more through the forward cash benefit or impact from writing kind of supplemental health business? And maybe if you can talk about, I know that relates to a specific sub, but just give a little bit more detail there on the portion of that business that will be going through that sub. Thanks.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Wilma, you were breaking up quite a bit there. I'm not sure I got your question. I think you're asking about the go-forward impacts of the supplemental health assumption update.

Wilma Burdis
Wilma Burdis
Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James

Yeah, yeah. On cash.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

On that supplemental health.

Wilma Burdis
Wilma Burdis
Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James

Thank you.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

On cash, okay. Jeremy, do you want to take that one?

Jeremy Williams
Jeremy Williams
Chief Actuary at CNO Financial Group

Sure. So certainly, I mean, on a cash basis, with the movement of the new business, the flow piece, there's certainly some reduction in strain there. Don't know the exact numbers specific to that, but certainly you would see some reduction in strain and some additional cash flows related to that.

Wilma Burdis
Wilma Burdis
Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James

Okay, thank you. And then can you guys hear me?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Yeah, I can hear you, Wilma, but you're just breaking up a little bit if you want to.

Wilma Burdis
Wilma Burdis
Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James

Breaking up a little bit, sorry. Along the lines of my first question, is the $20 million freed up from the fee services business, is that going to also be a cash impact? I guess what I'm trying to get at here is just maybe help us think a little bit about the forward cash benefits from these two actions. Thanks.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Got it. Yeah, so similar to Joel's previous question, I think that certainly the expenses supporting the fee services business are real-time cash. And on the revenue side, there aren't material deltas between the cash flow and the GAAP accruals. So I think the simple answer to your question, Wilma, is yes.

Wilma Burdis
Wilma Burdis
Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James

Thank you.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jack Matton from BMO. Your line is open, Jack. Please go ahead.

Jack Matton
Jack Matton
Equity Research Analyst at BMO

Hey, good morning. I had one more on the Bermuda transaction and more around the uses of kind of the additional cash flow you're seeing this year. Is that something you're kind of playing to your mark for shareholder returns next year, or are there incremental, I guess, investments in the business and growth or capabilities that you're planning to make?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Sure. So, Jack, clearly we'll have elevated cash at the Holdco in the fourth quarter in the wake of their new Bermuda treaty. And we will nevertheless be measured in our level of share repurchases as we continue to invest in sales growth and in the previously announced three-year tech modernization project. We view these to be an attractive strategic trade-off as both will contribute over time to earnings growth and improved return on equity. Directionally, I would say that you should view our 3Q 2025 share repurchase levels as more indicative of go-forward levels than the more elevated levels that we had in 4Q of last year and the first half of this year. Absent, of course, more compelling uses of that capital, we haven't changed in any way how we think about deploying excess capital. We'll put it to the best and highest use.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

In practice that has and will likely continue to translate to some level of share repurchase activity.

Jack Matton
Jack Matton
Equity Research Analyst at BMO

Got it. Thank you. And on the revised or raised ROE target, just in the cadence of that, I guess, should we think about the, I guess, more of a step up next year since a big driver is just the divestiture of the fee business and then maybe a smaller step in 2027? I guess any other kind of things we should think about regarding just the cadence of the ROE uplift?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Yeah, that's the right way to think about it, Jack. Initially, we said expect 150 basis points of 2025-2027 off of a run rate of approximately 10% in 2024, and we said including 50 basis points in 2025. We're on track to deliver that. The benefit from the exit of fee services together with the second Bermuda treaty will begin to emerge in the fourth quarter, but won't really have a material impact until we begin to move through 2026, so yes, the incremental 50 basis points is really in the 2026, 2027 period.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Hey, Jack and Paul, I'd just like to add one other perspective on that. I think it's important to note that even when we hit that 12% ROE. That is not a stopping point. We have to continue to improve. Right now, we've made public commitments to our shareholders about things we have line of sight for. But I want to emphasize, even when we get there, and hopefully we get there sooner and we're able to, again, increase the target and again talk about instead of 2027, talk about 2028, 2029. We have to continue to improve. So this team is geared around continuing to look for ways to improve. It's just at the moment, we're only willing to commit to things we have line of sight for. But you should not interpret that as accepting that number as a stopping point. It's anything but.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

It's nothing more than a waypoint. We have to continue to get better. And so we're constantly looking for things. And if we're lucky, if we're good and we're lucky, we'll be able to say something about that before 2027 and increase that target again. That is our goal.

Jack Matton
Jack Matton
Equity Research Analyst at BMO

Thank you.

Operator

As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Joseph Romero, Jefferies. Your line is open, Joseph. Please go ahead. Joseph, your line is open.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Operator, we're not hearing anything. I don't know if you can hear something, but we cannot.

Operator

No, I don't believe Joseph is there.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

You can skip to the next question, operator.

Operator

No problem at all. Our next question comes from Jack Matton from BMO. Your line is open, Jack. Please go ahead.

Jack Matton
Jack Matton
Equity Research Analyst at BMO

Hey, thanks for taking the follow-up. Just one more on the Medicare supplement business. I guess can you talk about what you're seeing regarding claims trends and what's true of the assumption review impact this quarter? I think in the last quarter, you talked about expecting a 10% average rate increase in your filings moving into next year. Is that still roughly your expectation?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Hey, Jack. Yes, so the annual actual assumption update did incorporate the trends that we've seen. So no real surprise there and no real change in those trends. And as you pointed out, we have the opportunity each year to address claim trends with pricing. And trying to get to that information. So let me circle back on that once I put my finger on it.

Jeremy Williams
Jeremy Williams
Chief Actuary at CNO Financial Group

Yeah, this is Jeremy. Go ahead and jump in. Yeah, we've certainly filed something around the neighborhood of the 10 and expect to get something in that realm. So you're correct.

Jack Matton
Jack Matton
Equity Research Analyst at BMO

Thank you.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Thank you, Jeremy.

Operator

Our next question comes from Joseph Romero from Jefferies. Line is open, Joseph. Please go ahead.

Suneet Kamath
Suneet Kamath
Research Analyst at Jefferies

Hey, it's Suneet Kamath from Jefferies. I think we might have an issue with me using his passcode. Can you hear me?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Yes. Hi, Suneet. We can hear you.

Suneet Kamath
Suneet Kamath
Research Analyst at Jefferies

Okay. Perfect. Sorry about that. My first question just on acknowledging the strong NAP in consumer. We did notice that the producing agent count was sort of flattish, maybe up just a little less than 1%. And I guess I'm just curious if we're running into sort of a tough comps issue there. And if that continues, does that start to put some pressure on the consumer NAP, or are you going to be able to continue to grow as you have been?

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

Suneet, this is Gary. We expect to continue to grow. You are correct that the comps are getting tougher, but we do continue to expect to grow. Conventional wisdom has always held that as employment market softens, more people are interested in trying out a commission-only career. So we expect that to start to help us in coming quarters based on what we're seeing.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

We also like the results we're getting from a number of our efforts to bring agents in. All of that said, Suneet, if you force me to pick, I've been consistent about this for a few years, I'm still way more focused on productivity. Productivity is way more important than agent count. So ideally, we try and do both, but if I had to prioritize, I'd prioritize productivity, and that continues to move nicely.

Suneet Kamath
Suneet Kamath
Research Analyst at Jefferies

Got it. Okay. And then I guess on the impairments, I know the numbers aren't huge, but you did reference that you've invested in these businesses and now are exiting them. Does this episode make you think differently about inorganic growth as a use of capital, or do you just kind of feel like this one kind of got away from you and you're going to continue to look for inorganic opportunities? Thanks.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

This is Gary again, Suneet. Let me, I guess, be plainspoken about it. There are clearly some lessons we need to take from this. So I want to make sure that you and our shareholders do not think that we are simply saying this is just one that got away. We have to get better. We have to learn from this. And the responsibility for that is mine. So that it doesn't sound like we're making excuses or anything like that. So definitely, it's causing us to rethink how we want to handle acquisitions. We'll be presenting a pretty detailed analysis to our board about lessons learned. So we're taking this very seriously. It will definitely impact the way we move forward. All that said, I do want to make sure that our shareholders also don't lose sight of some of the things that have gone really well.

Gary Bhojwani
Gary Bhojwani
CEO at CNO Financial Group

I mean, we've got minority stakes we've taken in partners like Tannenbaum and Rialto and Victory Park and so on that have done very, very well for us. So there are some good skills here, some people that have done some really good work. There are some lessons that need to be learned from these particular investments. You can rest assured we're taking that very seriously. It will definitely give me pause as we think about other inorganic opportunities. There's no question about that.

Suneet Kamath
Suneet Kamath
Research Analyst at Jefferies

That's good to hear. If I could sneak one more in just on the Bermuda, should we be thinking about sort of the cadence of you guys thinking about reinsuring in force business as maybe one deal a year, and that's kind of what you're shooting for? Is that a reasonable way to think about it?

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Suneet, I think that's reasonable. Yeah. I don't think it would be reasonable to expect that we would do more than that. And at some point, with our existing book, other than new business, we'll probably hit the right amount of in-force reserves that are ceded. There is a balance, and it's certainly not 100% ceded to Bermuda. So we're not there yet, but at some point, we would reach that sort of right balance. But for the time being, yes, as we mentioned, we're exploring additional business that we might cede to Bermuda.

Suneet Kamath
Suneet Kamath
Research Analyst at Jefferies

Okay. That makes sense. Thanks, guys.

Paul McDonough
Paul McDonough
CFO at CNO Financial Group

Thank you.

Operator

We currently have no further questions. So I'd like to hand back to Adam for some closing remarks.

Adam Auvil
Adam Auvil
Head of Investor Relations at CNO Financial Group

Thank you, operator. Thank you all for participating in today's call. If you have any further questions, please reach out to the Investor relations team. Have a great rest of your day.

Operator

This concludes today's call. We thank everyone for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

Executives
Analysts
    • Joel Hurwitz
      Lead Life Insurance and Retirement Services Research Analyst at Dowling & Partners
    • Wilma Burdis
      Equity Research Analyst at Raymond James
    • Jack Matton
      Equity Research Analyst at BMO
    • John Barnidge
      Equity Research Executive at Piper Sandler
    • Ryan Krueger
      Stock Analyst at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
    • Suneet Kamath
      Research Analyst at Jefferies
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