WEC Energy Group Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
February 4, 2025

Key Takeaways

  • WEC reported 2024 adjusted EPS of $4.88 and reaffirmed 2025 guidance of $5.17–$5.27, targeting a 6.5%–7% long-term EPS CAGR and raised its dividend 6.9% to $3.57/share.
  • The company unveiled a $28 billion five-year capital plan driven by regional economic growth from projects like Eli Lilly’s $3 billion expansion, Microsoft’s $3.3 billion data center, and a new 1 GW Cloverleaf campus.
  • Electric generation investments include $9.1 billion for 4.3 GW of renewables, with Paris Solar Park now in service and a 225 MW project due this year, alongside 1.2 GW of natural gas generation and LNG storage filings.
  • WEC Infrastructure brought two solar projects online and plans a third this quarter, while American Transmission Company is set to receive $2 billion from MISO Tranche 2.1 with up to $1.8 billion more via rights of first refusal or competitive bids.
  • Regulatory dynamics remain steady with Wisconsin rates fixed at a 53% equity layer and 9.8% ROE, though Illinois cases on natural gas infrastructure and safety monetization await decisions this quarter.
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Earnings Conference Call
WEC Energy Group Q4 2024
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Operator

Good afternoon and welcome to WEC Energy Group's Conference Call for fourth quarter and year-end 2024 results. This call is being recorded for rebroadcast, and all participants are in a listen-only mode at this time. After the presentation, the conference will be open to analysts for questions and answers. In conjunction with this call, a package of detailed financial information is posted at wecenergygroup.com. A replay will be available approximately two hours after the conclusion of this call. Before the conference call begins, please note that all statements in the presentation, other than historical facts, are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties that are subject to change at any time. Such statements are based on management's expectations at the time they are made.

Operator

In addition to the assumptions and other factors referred to in connection with the statements, factors described in WEC Energy Group's latest Form 10-K and subsequent reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated. During the discussions, referenced earnings per share will be based on diluted earnings per share unless otherwise noted. This call also will include non-GAAP financial information. The company has provided reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP measures in the materials posted on its website for this conference call. Now it is my pleasure to introduce Scott Lauber, President and Chief Executive Officer of WEC Energy Group.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as we review our results for calendar year 2024. Here with me are Xia Liu, our Chief Financial Officer, and Beth Straka, Senior Vice President of Corporate Communications and Investor Relations. As you saw from our news release this morning, we reported full year 2024 adjusted earnings of $4.88 a share. I am pleased to report that we delivered another year of solid results on virtually every meaningful measure, from customer satisfaction to financial performance to steady execution of our capital plan. In just a few minutes, Xia will provide more details on our financial results and outlook. For 2025 earnings, recall that in early December we provided our guidance in the range of $5.17-$5.27 a share. We continue to target a 6.5%-7% long-term compound annual growth rate.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

We have a robust capital plan driven by strong economic growth in our region. The Wisconsin unemployment rate stands at 3%, continuing a long-running trend below the national average, and as we discussed, there have been many exciting developments along the I-94 corridor between Milwaukee and Chicago. In December, less than a year after Eli Lilly acquired a facility in Pleasant Prairie, the pharmaceutical company announced plans for a $3 billion expansion. Eli Lilly predicts the expansion will add 750 highly skilled jobs in addition to 2,000 construction jobs to complete the project. Microsoft is making good progress on its large data center complex in southeast Wisconsin. Work continues on the first phase of the project. Microsoft took a short pause on construction to evaluate the technical design of the second area. That pause was lifted, and work has resumed. Microsoft is still reviewing designs for the third area.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Microsoft reports that the potential design changes have not affected plans to invest $3.3 billion in the project by the end of 2026, and we do not anticipate these changes will impact our capital plan or demand growth projections over the next five years. In fact, Microsoft purchased an additional 240 acres of land just last week for another data center development. We're delighted that Microsoft continues to expand its commitment to the Milwaukee region. Also, in January, Cloverleaf announced plans to develop approximately 1,700 acres in Port Washington, just north of Milwaukee, for another large data center campus. Cloverleaf projects that construction could start this fall. In the initial announcement, Cloverleaf expects the load to be 1 GW. This development is in the very early stages, but all of this load is incremental to our current plan.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

We're off to a strong start to the year with great economic prospects. To serve a growing economy, of course, we need to continue investing in our generation facility and infrastructure. Our $28 billion five-year capital plan, which we update in October, is the largest in our history. A balanced generation mix is a significant focus for our electric utilities. In the renewable area, over the next five years, we have a 4,300 MW plan for our expected investment of $9.1 billion. We wrapped up 2024 by bringing the Paris Solar Park into service. With an investment of approximately $319 million, it has added 180 MW of solar capacity for our Wisconsin utility customers. Next up on our schedule, we expect the 225 MW Gale Klappa Solar Park to go into service later this year.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Natural gas also continues to be a critical resource for reliable service. We expect the Wisconsin Commission to make rulings on several major project filings throughout the year. That includes 1,200 MW of efficient natural gas generation, as well as 33-mile lateral and two BCF of liquefied natural gas storage. Turning to our WEC Infrastructure business, the Delilah I and Maple Flats Solar Project went online at the end of last year. Between those two facilities, we invested approximately $890 million for 90% ownership of 550 MW of capacity. And we expect to close on the Hardin III project during the first quarter. We plan to invest approximately $407 million for 90% ownership interest of the project, which has a total capacity of 250 MW. As a reminder, this project fulfills our five-year planned investment at WEC Infrastructure.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Regarding transmission, as you saw in January, MISO announced capital investments on Tranche 2.1. We expect ATC to be assigned approximately $2 billion of that tranche, with an additional opportunity through the right of first refusal or competitive bid of up to $1.5-$1.8 billion. As you know, we own 60% of ATC. Overall, we have a lot of confidence in our ability to execute on our capital plan and continue our growth trajectory. Now, turning to the regulatory front, I am pleased to report that we currently have no planned or active rate cases. As you know, the Wisconsin Commission finalized their written orders for test year 2025 and 2026. Consistent with prior disclosures, the Commission maintained a 53% financial equity layer and a 9.8% return on equity for our Wisconsin utilities. In Illinois, we remain actively engaged in two proceedings of note.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

One of these is evaluating the future of natural gas in Illinois. Currently, it's scheduled to extend into 2026. The other, a review of our Safety Modernization Program, is close to its conclusion. We made our final oral arguments before the Illinois Commerce Commission last week and expect a decision this quarter. Next up, Xia will provide you more details on our financials.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

Thanks, Scott. Turning now to earnings, our 2024 adjusted earnings were $4.88 per share, an increase of $0.25 per share over 2023 adjusted earnings. In 2024, we experienced the warmest winter on record. The estimated weather headwind was $0.25 per share when compared to normal conditions. We were able to offset this by implementing a variety of initiatives such as O&M and fuel management, as well as tax and financing activities. This focus on execution was key for delivering our adjusted EPS near the top end of the earnings guidance. Now, let's take a closer look at our year-over-year variances. Our earnings package includes a comparison of adjusted full-year results on page 17. I'll walk through the significant drivers. Starting with our utility operation, weather decreased earnings year-over-year by an estimated $0.05 per share.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

This weather impact, along with a total of $0.38 negative impact related to increases in depreciation and amortization, day-to-day O&M, and interest expense, were more than offset by $0.49 of total positive variances from rate base growth, fuel, tax, and other. All in all, the utility operations grew $0.06 year-over-year. Now, before I discuss earnings comparison at the other segments, let me briefly comment on O&M and sales. Remember that originally we guided 2024 total company day-to-day O&M to be 6%-7% higher compared to 2023, largely driven by assets that were placed in service and normal inflation. As you recall, several of the assets in WEC Infrastructure had a delayed in service until the end of the year. This, in combination with initiatives we took after the mild first quarter, helped us achieve an overall increase of 2% over 2023. That is considerably lower than the original guidance.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

Regarding our weather normal sales for 2024, as you can see on pages 13 and 14 in our earnings package, both retail electric and natural gas deliveries in Wisconsin were relatively flat year-over-year. For 2025, we're projecting weather normal retail electric sales in Wisconsin, excluding the iron ore mine, to grow 0.7%, and retail gas sales in Wisconsin, excluding power generation, to grow 1.9% from the 2024 level. Now, back to our earnings comparison. Regarding our investment in American Transmission Company, earnings increased $0.07 compared to 2023. We recognized $0.05 in Q4 from the FERC order that resolved certain MISO ROE complaints and set the ROE at 10.48%. The remaining $0.02 improvement in ATC earnings was driven by continued capital investment. Earnings at our energy infrastructure segment grew $0.13 in 2024 compared to 2023.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

$0.03 were driven by additional investment in our Power the Future plan, and the remaining $0.10 relate to WEC Infrastructure. Finally, you'll see that earnings at our corporate and other segment decreased to $0.01. Higher interest expense was substantially offset by tax and other items. Overall, we improved our performance by $0.25 per share on an adjusted basis in 2024. Next, let's look at our earnings guidance. For the first quarter this year, we project to earn in the range of $2.13-$2.23 per share. This forecast takes into account January weather and assumes normal weather for the rest of the quarter. Remember, last year we earned $1.97 per share in the first quarter, and as Scott stated, for the full year 2025, we are reaffirming our annual guidance of $5.17-$5.27 per share. Finally, some comments on financing.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

In 2024, we successfully executed over $4.5 billion of external funding, including almost $200 million of common equity. In 2025, consistent with previous disclosures, we expect to issue $700-$800 million of common equity via our ATM program, as well as the dividend reinvestment and employee benefit plans. Including this, as a reminder, total common equity financing over the next five years is still expected to be between $2.7 and $3.2 billion. Going forward, to support the region's strong economic growth and our capital investment, we continue to expect any incremental capital will be funded with 50% equity content. Overall, we are confident in our long-term EPS growth figure of 6.5%-7%. With that, I'll turn it back to Scott.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thank you, Xia. Now, as you may have seen, our board in its January meeting increased the dividend by 6.9% to an annualized $3.57 per share. This will mark the 22nd consecutive year that our shareholders will be rewarded with higher dividends. The increase is consistent with our policy of paying out 65%-70% of our earnings in dividends. Overall, we are on track and focused on providing value for our customers and our stockholders. Operator, we are now ready for the question and answer portion of the call.

Operator

Thank you. And now we will take your questions. The question and answer session will be conducted electronically. To ask a question, please press the star key followed by the digit one on your phone. If you are using a speakerphone, turn off your mute function to allow your signal to reach our equipment. And we will take as many questions as time permits. Once again, press star one on your phone to ask a question. And your first question comes from the line of Shar Pourreza with Guggenheim Partners. Your line is open.

Shar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director of Energy, Power, and Utilities at Guggenheim Partners

Hey, guys.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Hey, Shar.

Shar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director of Energy, Power, and Utilities at Guggenheim Partners

Hey, Scott. Surprisingly, a couple of data center questions for you. First, I just want to, Scott, if it's okay, just want to touch on the recent Cloverleaf data center announcement. It looks like it's a 1,000-acre campus in Port Washington. There's been some local headlines that have kind of indicated that there's been pushback from the constituencies and some of the local, obviously, ratepayers. Could we just get a status there? What's the timing expectations? How many megawatts is the project expected to be? And would this be incremental to your current plan? Thanks.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. Absolutely. So they announced the plan up in Port Washington, which is just north of Milwaukee, and our understanding, it's about 1,700 acres, so a little over the 1,000. There was an announcement at one time being 1,000, but I think they're up to 1,700 acres now.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

And right now, the initial look and in their initial announcement, they talk about a gigawatt of additional, which would be all incremental to our plan. I think it's early stages yet. So 1,700 acres provides a lot of opportunities. And my understanding is it's Port Washington, and the city of Port Washington has been very, very constructive and positive on the development. So we're excited about it. I think Cloverleaf is excited about it and looks like a good opportunity for all of us.

Shar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director of Energy, Power, and Utilities at Guggenheim Partners

Got it. And then just, sorry, Scott, any opportunity would be incremental to the current plan?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Correct. Correct. So that 1,800 MW that we talked about in our current five-year plan, that never contemplated any of this. That was just announced. And we wait till the customer's making an announcement. Like I said before, we've talked to a lot of data centers and other developers, but as they make announcements, that's when we'll first start rolling them into our plan. We'll take time now as we go through the plan and working with them this summer on when does that stage throughout the five-year plan and into the future five-year capital.

Shar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director of Energy, Power, and Utilities at Guggenheim Partners

Got it. Perfect. And then just touching on just some of the recent Microsoft news, there's obviously been reports, and we're seeing it. They're acquiring more land in Wisconsin. So it looks like it's full speed ahead. Obviously, the DeepSeek headlines have caused some confusion around U.S. spending opportunities. And then there's Stargate. Are you seeing any sort of impacts in either direction with the Microsoft spending opportunities, the trajectory? So just any kind of visibility there. And is there any update on the tariff negotiations? Thanks.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. So in the Microsoft, in fact, I was listening to the Microsoft conference call to get intel on what their thoughts are on DeepSeek and other conference calls about it. Everything I've heard is if AI becomes more efficient, more people will use it, and the demand's going to still be there. We also, internally, when we saw DeepSeek and other discussions about that, we reached out to data centers. Even the discussion that happened in Cloverleaf is after the DeepSeek. All our capacity plans and all our growth plans are still intact. There's no changes there. That's been all very positive. What we have seen, and just to be very clear, there was two areas in the Microsoft project that was paused. The one area has been release of the pause, design issues that they're looking at.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

And then the other area is still being reviewed on design items that they're looking at. I think it has to deal with looking at a closed-loop water system. So we expect to get more information on that in the next couple of months. So all moving forward there, we're actively working with these large, very large customers on tariffs. We expect something probably in the next six months that we'll be filing with them. But we're all aligned on what we need to do in order to be fair on cost allocation. And they all agree they need to pay their fair share. So more to come, but all positive.

Shar Pourreza
Senior Managing Director of Energy, Power, and Utilities at Guggenheim Partners

Fair enough, Scott. Thanks again. Super helpful caller. See you soon. Bye.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Yep.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Bill Appicelli with UBS. Your line is open.

Bill Appicelli
Bill Appicelli
Executive Director and Head of North America Power and Utilities Research at UBS

Hi. Good afternoon.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Hey, Bill.

Bill Appicelli
Bill Appicelli
Executive Director and Head of North America Power and Utilities Research at UBS

Hi. Just going a little bit expanding on the incremental demand that you're seeing. I mean, as we look across the 1,800 MW you guys outlined back in Q4, can you just remind us of what the generation capacity looks like? And when you factor in the combustion turbines and some of the stuff that's in the current plan, I mean, where does that get you in terms of net load in the system relative to what may be another wave of incremental demand from maybe Cloverleaf or from additional Microsoft development?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. And as we put our five-year plan together last fall with the 1,800 MW in the southeastern Wisconsin region, which is all the great economic development going on in the region in addition to Microsoft, we are looking at the generation plan and the MISO rules and really building to what we need for capacity to support the MISO rules and the economic development. So there's not excess capacity out there. This would all be incremental support that we need for reliable capacity. So that will be reflected in our updated capital plans going forward.

Bill Appicelli
Bill Appicelli
Executive Director and Head of North America Power and Utilities Research at UBS

Okay. Right. So if projects like Cloverleaf were to come to fruition and a Microsoft expansion, that would likely need to be supported by additional generation investments.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

That is correct, and a lot of these investments are looking for a mix of not just reliable gas capacity, but also renewables and a generation mix, just like we lay out in our plans.

Bill Appicelli
Bill Appicelli
Executive Director and Head of North America Power and Utilities Research at UBS

Okay. And I mean, how quickly can that be developed? I mean, there's a lot of talk in the market about just the lead times for putting in additional generation capacity and whether or not that syncs up with sort of the development profiles or timelines of some of the data centers and large load customers.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

That's a good question because a lot of people, a lot of people have plans, and everyone wants to move very fast. When you look at to develop a data center starting with a farm field along with the transmission and the generation, it could take three to four years to get there. But that's why we're working hand in glove with them and American Transmission Company to continue to grow and what we need to do to deliver.

Bill Appicelli
Bill Appicelli
Executive Director and Head of North America Power and Utilities Research at UBS

Okay, and then just lastly, on the System Modernization Program hearings last week, I guess, what should we make of the decision when we get it? I mean, does that have any impact on the gas CapEx outlook in Illinois in the more near term, or do we need to see what the future of natural gas preceding kind of yields before we can make any longer-term capital decisions?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. And just to give you a little color, what we currently have in our plan is approximately $90 million annually to support facility relocates for the City of Chicago or any key reliability or safety issues that we need to address. So it's about $90 million. In our filings, we talked about in order to get back to a plan that would take up to about $300 million of capital. Now, remember, the decision will come. We expect in February. And we'll kind of gauge what's going off of their decision. But it would take a while to ramp up because, remember, we were told to pause and stop all activity and reduce that spending. So we'd have to put more contracts in place, go through the permitting, go through the engineering, all of that. So it'd take a while to ramp up.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

We'll see what comes out of that decision in February. We expect it in February, March.

Bill Appicelli
Bill Appicelli
Executive Director and Head of North America Power and Utilities Research at UBS

All right. Great. Thank you so much.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Durgesh Chopra with Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Durgesh Chopra
Durgesh Chopra
Managing Director of Power and Utilities at Evercore ISI

Hey, team. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Just to start off, any updates on Point Beach? I know you were kind of talking with NextEra. Are there any updates there since we last spoke?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

No, there really hasn't been any updates, and just so everyone recalls, the contract in Point Beach, the first lease ends in 2030, and the second PPA ends in 2033, so it's not a fire drill that we're actively at it, and we've been busy with a lot of stuff, and I think you can tell NextEra has been busy on a lot of stuff, so it hasn't been on the front burner for all of us. I expect we'll have more information in the first half of the year.

Durgesh Chopra
Durgesh Chopra
Managing Director of Power and Utilities at Evercore ISI

That's perfect. Thank you, Scott. And then maybe just a big picture question. With these tariffs, how should we, us and investors, think about implications to Wisconsin and just broadly utilities? It seems like these China tariffs are in effect right now. We're not sure how long they'll last. But how are you thinking through all of this?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

We're watching them very closely, as you can imagine. The China tariffs could affect us somewhat when you think about some of the solar projects we have and some of the sourcing that's needed. Once again, it's not a large part of the solar projects. We think it's very manageable where they're currently at. The potential tariffs out of Canada and Mexico, we were watching very closely also, along with the cost of gas. Even with the cost of gas, when you're watching it at a 10% tariff, that was moving that gas cost from $3-$3.30. That's a small portion of the gas supply that we have. We saw the gas prices move a lot faster with just some cold weather coming across. We think it's going to be manageable, but we're watching them very closely.

Durgesh Chopra
Durgesh Chopra
Managing Director of Power and Utilities at Evercore ISI

Got it. Thank you, Scott. Really appreciate the time.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Carly Davenport with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Carly Davenport
Carly Davenport
VP of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Hey, good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. You referenced before renewable capacity as being part of what is being considered by some of these large load customers. I guess, do you see any implications from new policy priorities post-inauguration that could potentially impact the cadence of your capital investment in renewables?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

There's a potential, and we're evaluating all of that as we see what goes on with the administration and the tariffs and production tax credits. However, I do think that production, the PTCs will continue, and they won't just be phased out immediately. I think there's a longer-term benefit for a lot of people, a lot of construction jobs, a lot of value for our customers. So I'm not anticipating big changes there. But of course, all of us, including large customers, are watching it. But at this time, I don't see any issues on the horizon.

Carly Davenport
Carly Davenport
VP of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Got it. Great. That's helpful. And then maybe just a housekeeping item. Just with the O&M coming in lower in 2024 versus your expectations, any color that you can provide on how we should think about the year-over-year impacts for O&M looking to 2025?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. And remember, there's a lot of this because of individual projects didn't come into service. And a lot of new projects are coming online in 2025. But Xia has pulled together some analysis. I'll let her walk you through it.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. Carly, so overall, remember, 2024 came in about 5% less than what we originally forecasted. And some of that is short-term initiatives to offset the mild heating season. And some of that is delays of capital put in service. So we need to restore that kind of run rate, first of all. And on top of that, we have new projects we will put in service this year. And also, in the last rate cases in Wisconsin, the Commission approved some increase in reliability spending, particularly for vegetation management. If you add all those moving pieces, it could be a relatively bigger growth year over year, but it's all driven by the factors I mentioned already.

Carly Davenport
Carly Davenport
VP of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Got it. And when you say higher relative growth year-over-year, are you talking about in reference to the original guidance for 2024, or where you actually ended up coming in?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

When compared to original guidance, it's pretty normal. But if you compare to what 2024 came in, it could be, I don't know, 8%-10% growth year-over-year.

Carly Davenport
Carly Davenport
VP of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Got it. That's super helpful. Thanks so much for the time.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies. Your line is open.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Hey, good afternoon, team. Thank you guys very much. Hope you guys are doing well.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. Thanks, Julian. Yeah, we're doing great in Wisconsin.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Excellent. Hey, just a couple of cleanup items here following up. First, in Illinois, I want to come back to this because that staff recommendation for option three at $7.19 billion, that was a big number. Obviously, you've put in a fairly modest plan here. How much of a delta is there versus what you guys have reflected? I mean, again, I get that apples to apples is difficult to discern at times. But how would you characterize that as far as the comparison?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. And to get up to that staff number, because they even said we should maybe do it at the same pace or even a little bit faster. To get up to that staff number, we'd have to ramp up to maybe $350 million a year in the short term and then go higher than that as you get through just with factoring in just different inflation and stuff. So we'll see where that goes. But that would be a little over $200 million more than what's annually, more than what's in our plan.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Got it. All right. Thanks for trying to reconcile. I know it's tricky on the fly here. And then just going back to, I know there's been a lot of focus on the data center stuff, but I just want to make sure I got this right here. Do we know the quantum of megawatts? I thought there was a 3 GW number out there with Cloverleaf. Do we have any sense of timing at all on the ramp? And similarly, for phase three, what would be contemplated on ramp? I just want to make sure I have a sense from you. Based on what you were to get details here, the quantum of gigawatts and especially the ramp rate, and would this be ready for some updates this year?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Or it sounds like maybe that's not a 2025 event in as much as it could take some time to come together on those increments.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. Sure. And Cloverleaf, it is a tremendously nice site. It's a great opportunity. And in our preparatory remarks, we said a gigawatt. I have heard that it could be significantly larger, like you mentioned. I anticipate that if things continue to move as they have, that we could start seeing some construction, perhaps this fall even. But that ramp rate then to actually get to energy flowing probably would take three to four years, I would imagine, to flow substantial amounts. So probably in that 2028 or 2029 timeframe. But we're working with them and working with American Transmission Company to provide services as fast as they need it.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Got it. And phase three says similar dynamic that maybe the punchline is, would you expect there to be kind of a tangible update by the end of this year kind of in your normal course?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Oh, absolutely.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Just to set expectations

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

today?

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Oh, absolutely. Okay. Great. Excellent.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Yeah. I think there'll be more of an update by the end of this year, absolutely, with our updated five-year plan.

Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Julien Dumoulin-Smith
Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Equity Analyst at Jefferies

Okay. Perfect. Thank you guys very much. Appreciate the time.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Andrew Weisel with Scotiabank. Your line is open.

Andrew Weisel
Andrew Weisel
Managing Director of Sell-side Equity Research at Scotiabank

Hi. Good afternoon.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Hey, Andrew.

Andrew Weisel
Andrew Weisel
Managing Director of Sell-side Equity Research at Scotiabank

My first question, and you might have just been alluding to this a moment ago, but I was wondering when we might get the next updates to the long-term spending plans. You typically give those in November, I know. But you've already mentioned $2 billion of MISO transmission spending with maybe almost $2 billion more to come soon, the Cloverleaf spending adding more incremental CapEx and possibly some other needs. Should we expect to hear anything between now and November, or would we wait till later in the year for your typical timing?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. That's a great question, and just to set expectations, I anticipate it'll be in that October-November timeframe. And here's why. The American transmission growth that we're talking about, 2.1, that's most likely in that 2028, 2029, more in the 2029, 2030, and past timeframe. So later out farther. So it really won't affect this five-year plan as much. And then as you think about these additional megawatt-hour sales potential, as we said, it'll take a while to ramp up, probably later in the five-year plan. And we'll pull all those plans together right now. So it's not like it's really going to affect dramatically in 2025 or 2026 or 2027, probably.

Andrew Weisel
Andrew Weisel
Managing Director of Sell-side Equity Research at Scotiabank

Okay. Great. And then I guess similar question on the regulatory front. You obviously just completed your two-year rate case in Wisconsin, but you'll probably need to make some important investment decisions sooner than the next rate case is. So you made the comment about a quiet regulatory calendar, but how do we juxtapose that with a very busy environment with economic development?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. That is a very good question. And from a rate case perspective, it's very quiet. From a Wisconsin perspective, as we have a significant number of projects at the commission right now for approval. So I think we have close to $5 billion of projects sitting at the commission between the gas generation, which includes CTs and RICE units, a gas lateral, the LNG plant that we put in service to have that additional reliability, plus solar, wind, and some battery capacity. There's a lot of projects at the commission to get approval. When they get approval, they get approved, which we anticipate some of the gas turbines to get approved by probably in the second or third quarter. We'll start construction. And during that period, we're really incurring or earning AFUDC on those projects. And then they'll go into future rates and probably future rate cases.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

It takes a while to build, so we do have a very busy schedule getting approval on projects.

Andrew Weisel
Andrew Weisel
Managing Director of Sell-side Equity Research at Scotiabank

Okay. Great. That's really helpful. And one last one. At WEC Infrastructure, I believe you've now completed all of your planned spending for the five-year outlook. So first question, am I correct that 2025 will still have some earnings growth thanks to the recently completed projects? And then second, how do you think about your appetite for incremental unregulated projects? You obviously have a ton of utility opportunities. How do you think about the opportunity for more stuff at WECI?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure, and you described it very well. We've had two projects that came in at the end of last year. One we expect to close. The next one we expect to close in the first quarter of this year, so there's incremental, which includes incremental production tax credits. But you hit the nail on the head. We have so much growth in Wisconsin and American Transmission Company that right now we don't have anything in our plans for that WEC Infrastructure. Now, never say never, but right now we really don't have any plans in that infrastructure because we have so much to execute within the utilities.

Andrew Weisel
Andrew Weisel
Managing Director of Sell-side Equity Research at Scotiabank

All right. Very good. Thank you.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thanks, Andrew.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Sullivan with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Hey, good afternoon.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Hey, Michael.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Hey, Scott. Wanted to go back to just the sales growth conversation. I think given everything seems on track with maybe even upward bias, I think you're pointing to just shy of a 1% growth on the electric side this year. Are we going to get into that 4.5%-5% range by next year? Is that still a fair assumption to work with?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Yes. And Xia has looked at that. We're slowly going to start to see some ramp up. But really, the big stuff goes into service in 2026. Xia, any other comments?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

No. I think that's it. Embedded in that 0.7% growth is the LC&I growth, which is about 1.9%, Michael. So that's a good, nice ramp up from where we landed in 2024. And I mean, everybody's focused on data centers, but we really have really good growth across all the 16 sectors that we track. Just to give you a sense, 11 of the 16 sectors last year had positive or relatively flat growth by the end of 2024. So we feel really good about the forecast for 2025. And we think the 4.5%-5% will be reached maybe in the, I don't know, late 2026 timeframe.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Okay. Very helpful. Appreciate the color there. And then switching back to the ATC side of things, just the upside potential beyond the $2.1 billion, when would you anticipate getting some clarity on that, whether it be competitive bids or the ROFR option?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. And the ROFR option, American Transmission Company is working with the legislature to hopefully get something adopted or proposed and hopefully approved in this quarter or this first half of the year. And then I think if there's a bidding option, I think those bids would be required. If we don't get the ROFR, those bids would be required probably in the first half of this year too. So more would come in the next couple next year or so here. Now, when we looked at the ROFR, and the ROFR, when you're in Wisconsin and you have the ROFR, it's a great investment for American Transmission Company. But also, when you look at the cost and how they're allocated, it's a good investment also for our Wisconsin customers. It saves money for them too. So we think there's a great opportunity for the ROFR in Wisconsin.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan
Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research

Great. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thank you.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Your line is open.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Utilities and Midstream Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director at JPMorgan

Hi. Good afternoon.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Hey, Jeremy. How are you doing?

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Utilities and Midstream Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director at JPMorgan

Good. How about yourself?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Not bad. Not bad.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Utilities and Midstream Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director at JPMorgan

Good. Just a real quick one for me, right? I was thinking with regards to your experience with the RICE engines there. We hear a lot about speed to market these days. Do you think your experience with RICE units at the utility or WECI would offer you kind of the ability to give a differentiated service as it relates to speed to market?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Oh, that's a good question. And we have the RICE units in our plan. We've got three sites of RICE units up and running, very happy with the RICE units. And we have a combination of RICE units along with CTs. So we look at it kind of at all of the above and how do we grow our generation to be reliable. And RICE units is just part of the complement. I don't know. I think it's good to have them part of our mix, but I don't know if we just go 100% with RICE units or CTs. So it's been a combination. So they're very good, and they've been very effective for us as we've been using them in our load here for a couple of years now.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Utilities and Midstream Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director at JPMorgan

Got it. That's helpful there. Thanks. And I might have missed it earlier if you touched on it already. Sorry. But any thoughts on OpenAI CFO mentioning Wisconsin as a possible data center site and beyond Microsoft? Could you walk us through your ability to accommodate if you do get more of these more people coming in?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure, and like I said, our development people are talking all the time with potential opportunities. And we work with them and kind of lay out the game plan. You need to get transmission. But in order to get orders in and stuff, you need to sign power purchase agreements to protect our core customers. So we're working with a variety of people. So potentially, there's even more out there, but we just got to get into the queue and lay out a game plan with them. So there's always more potential.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Utilities and Midstream Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director at JPMorgan

Got it. Quick last one, if I could. With all this hitting in the back end of the plan, how do you think this might impact the CAGR?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

We're going to put all that together this summer as we look at our fall here. And we'll update that. And whatever we decide to do, they'll come on our third-quarter call.

Jeremy Tonet
Jeremy Tonet
Utilities and Midstream Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director at JPMorgan

Fair enough. Thank you very much.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Paul Fremont with Ladenburg. Your line is open.

Paul Fremont
Paul Fremont
Managing Director of Equity Research at Ladenburg

Thank you. Quick question of clarification for the Microsoft pause. My understanding is that the closed-loop design is also being used in Arizona. Is the pause Wisconsin-specific, or is it more generic to all of their facilities that are going to use the closed-loop design?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

I don't know the specifics of what's going on the other projects. I did read that there are projects going forward, new projects, including Arizona and Mount Pleasant. We'll pilot zero-water evaporating designs in 2026. I can't speak to the other projects in Microsoft's area. I know ours is a short pause here. They've already started one of the sites back up. It's just the one that's on a pause still.

Paul Fremont
Paul Fremont
Managing Director of Equity Research at Ladenburg

Great. And then just a quick question on sort of any comments on the NextEra GE Vernova partnership and what impact that might have on the availability of gas turbines as you move out into the future?

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

That's a good question. What we have in our five-year plan, we have already sized to that generation. We'll see what the demand is as we continue to work with our large customers for 2029, 2030, 2031. I mean, there's no doubt that GE is probably ramping up their supply and their ability also to deliver more units. We'll see where it goes.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

Paul, the good news for us is our current CTs and the generation plan in the current five-year plan. We already signed the contract. So we're ready to move right now for this phase.

Paul Fremont
Paul Fremont
Managing Director of Equity Research at Ladenburg

Thank you. Thank you very much.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thanks, Paul.

Operator

And your final question comes from the line of Paul Patterson with Glenrock Associates. Your line is open.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

Hey, good afternoon.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Hey, Paul.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

Just a few quick questions. In Illinois, when you guys had your gas case, there was an Ameren gas case that was kind of at the same timeframe. They have gotten an order from the appeals court that reversed some of the denials and what have you. I was wondering how you felt if that has any impact on your thoughts regarding the gas situation with respect to your SMP or your other. I think you guys also appealed your gas case, if I'm not wrong. If there's any maybe carryover there that you might be thinking about.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Sure. That's a good question. And I did see where some of those appeals were sent back to the commission. And we also have appealed our rate case order specifically as it related to some of our service center facilities that were denied 100% and other aspects of the case. We'll see where our appeals go. As it relates to the SMP, I think our record was very clear. It's needed for reliability. It's needed for safety. There's a lot of old pipes in the city of Chicago. In fact, we're working on one back from 1861. So I think the facts of the case are going to drive it as the SMP for what we'll see in the next quarter here. On the appeal, we'll see where the court goes with our appeal.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

I think it's in a different circuit, but it's somewhat positive to see an appeal that Ameren wanted a few of them to go back to the commission.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

Okay. And then finally, just a bookkeeping. On the extinguishment of debt, what are your expectations going forward on what kind of opportunities might be there with respect to that category?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

Well, we've been using that as, I don't know. It's not in the plan, but we've tried to be opportunistic. Last December, when we extinguished some of the debt, we were able to realize some gain, but really also kind of neutral for 2025. So we want to be flexible. And if you have a really bad year in weather or something, that could be a tool for us to consider. But it's not in the base plan.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

We'll have to also see what the market's like at that time.

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

Exactly.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

Okay. And the opportunities are being driven pretty much by interest rates. Is that how we should think about it? Or is there anything else, something unusual that doesn't come to mind?

Xia Liu
Xia Liu
CFO at WEC Energy Group

We'll see. Market conditions, interest rates, and everything around it.

Paul Patterson
Analyst at Glenrock Associates

Awesome. Thanks so much.

Scott Lauber
Scott Lauber
President and CEO at WEC Energy Group

Thank you. Well, that concludes our conference call for today. Thank you for participating. If you have any more questions, feel free to contact Beth Straka at 414-221-4639.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Executives
Analysts
    • Shar Pourreza
      Senior Managing Director of Energy, Power, and Utilities at Guggenheim Partners
    • Bill Appicelli
      Executive Director and Head of North America Power and Utilities Research at UBS
    • Julien Dumoulin-Smith
      Power, Utilities, and Clean Energy Equity Analyst at Jefferies
    • Paul Patterson
      Analyst at Glenrock Associates
    • Jeremy Tonet
      Utilities and Midstream Equity Research Analyst and Managing Director at JPMorgan
    • Andrew Weisel
      Managing Director of Sell-side Equity Research at Scotiabank
    • Durgesh Chopra
      Managing Director of Power and Utilities at Evercore ISI
    • Paul Fremont
      Managing Director of Equity Research at Ladenburg
    • Michael Sullivan
      Director of Equity Research at Wolfe Research
    • Carly Davenport
      VP of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs
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