Natural Gas Services Group Q4 2024 Earnings Report

Natural Gas Services Group EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.29
• Consensus EPS: $0.27
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.02
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.14

Natural Gas Services Group Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $40.66 million
• Expected Revenue: $40.84 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$180.00 thousand
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Natural Gas Services Group Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2024
• Date: 3/17/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, March 18, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 8:30AM ET

Natural Gas Services Group (NYSE:NGS) (NYSE: NGS) provides natural gas compression equipment and services to oil and natural gas producers, processors and other energy companies. The company designs, fabricates, sells and rents compressors used to maintain the pressure needed to gather, process and transport natural gas, as well as to support production from oil and gas wells.

Its offerings include reciprocating and rotary screw compressors, compressor packages and related equipment. Natural Gas Services Group also provides engineering, field maintenance, service and repair support for compression systems. Its contract compression activities allow customers to use company-owned equipment under rental arrangements, while its fabrication and sales operations provide customized compression solutions.

Headquartered in Midland, Texas, Natural Gas Services Group primarily serves the onshore oil and natural gas industry in the United States, with operations and equipment deployed in major producing regions. The company was established in 1998 and has focused throughout its history on natural gas compression and related services.

Natural Gas Services Group Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Natural Gas Services achieved record fleet growth with run-in horsepower rising to 492,000 by year-end 2024, a 17% increase over 2023 and 55% over 2022, driving rental revenue up 36% to $144.2 million.
• Rental adjusted gross margin expanded to 60.5% in 2024, up roughly 650 bps year-over-year and over 1,000 bps versus 2022, reflecting fleet mix upgrades and higher pricing power.
• For 2025, the company guides adjusted EBITDA of $74 million to $78 million (midpoint +10%), with growth CapEx of $95 million to $120 million already backed by contracts for large horsepower units and a material second-half deployment ramp.
• Accounts receivable was reduced by $23.6 million to $15.6 million, cutting DSO from ~100 days to 35 days, while further cash creation is targeted through tax receivable, real estate monetization, and inventory reductions.
• The company will cease fabrication and assembly at its Midland, Texas facility, leading to a sequential net income drag of $2.1 million in Q4 from inventory allowances and an intangible asset impairment.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Natural Gas Services Group quarter four earnings call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Operator assistance is available at any time during this conference by pressing zero pound. I would now like to turn the call over to Ms. Anna Delgado. Please begin.

[Anna Delgado, Head of Investor Relations at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thank you, Luke. Good morning, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, the company will be making forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal security laws. Investors are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, and that actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. In the forward-looking statements, finally, the company can give no assurance that such forward-looking statements will prove to be correct. Natural Gas Services Group disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Accordingly, you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

[Anna Delgado, Head of Investor Relations at Natural Gas Services Group]

These and other risks are described in yesterday's earnings press release and our filings with the SEC, including our Form 10-K for the period ended December 31st, 2024, and our Form 8-K. These documents can be found in the investor section of our website located at www.ngsgi.com. Should one or more of the risks materialize or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially. In addition, our discussion today will reference certain non-GAAP financial measures, including EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted gross margin, among others. For reconciliations of these non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable measures under GAAP, please see yesterday's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Justin Jacobs, our Chief Executive Officer. Justin.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thank you, Anna, and good morning. I will start by introducing the team. Joining me today on the call is Ian Eckert, our new Chief Financial Officer, and Brian Tucker, our President and Chief Operating Officer. I'm very happy to welcome Ian to our team, and I am impressed how quickly he has come up the curve, considering he has been with us for less than three months. I'd also like to take a second to thank all the employees at NGS. These results would not be possible without your dedication and perseverance. Thank you. I trust by now you've had the chance to review our fourth quarter and full year 2024 results, which we announced yesterday after market close. We delivered another strong quarter of revenue growth, net cash from operations, adjusted EBITDA, and operationally, we improved across the board.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

We continue to execute on our strategy and against our value drivers. Ian will cover our fourth quarter results, so I will focus more on the year-over-year growth as well as our comparison to two years ago. I've noted on previous calls that NGS is a different business than it was several years ago. I believe these numbers put this in context. I remain quite optimistic regarding our competitive position and our growth trajectory. We closed 2024 with almost 492,000 rented horsepower, compared to over 420,000 last year and 318,000 at the end of 2022. This is 17% growth last year and 55% over two years. Horsepower utilization has also improved to 82.1%, compared to 80.8% at 2023 year-end and 74.8% at the end of 2022. Rental revenue in 2024 was $144.2 million, up 36% compared to 2023 and 94% compared to 2022.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

We have really changed the dynamics of our business, upgrading and upsizing our fleet to focus on large horsepower compression with technology and service differentiation. At the end of 2024, more than 70% of our rented horsepower is coming from large horsepower units. Rental adjusted gross margin in 2024 was 60.5%, approximately 650 basis points higher than 2023 and more than 1,000 basis points higher than 2022, showing the transition in our fleet mix as well as higher pricing. On an adjusted EBITDA basis, we've reported $69.5 million in 2024, compared to $45.8 million in 2023 and $29.2 million in 2022. These are increases of 52% and 138%, respectively. As I will discuss in my closing remarks when I provide guidance, you should expect to see continued growth in 2025 and in 2026, and with a sheer volume of unit deployments planned, enter 2026 as a significantly larger business.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

With respect to the market, there has been a good deal of volatility in oil, WTI, since our last call. Somewhat interestingly, it's around the same price as when we last reported earnings at around $67 or $68 a barrel, although there was a fair bit of movement in between our calls. Without making any value judgment regarding national economic policy, I think the markets are a bit uncertain as to economic conditions and the resulting impact on oil prices. This is, of course, something we monitor very closely, as do our customers, and we're in constant discussion so that we can plan accordingly. As our unit deployments are pretty much locked in for 2025, we are really looking to 2026 demand, which, as of now, appears quite strong. With respect to natural gas, we've seen a better story.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

It traded around $3 on our last earnings call, and at that time, I noted that activity was muted. Natural gas now trades around $4, and we see a more bullish market, and that's a good sign. With that said, we are taking a conservative approach. I would say we are more cautiously optimistic. Prices, if they remain in this level or go higher, could increase demand for some of our existing small horsepower fleet. We are also seeing incremental demand for large horsepower units, although this is in the midstream area where we do not currently have any units. Once again, we are closely monitoring the environment and looking for incremental revenue opportunities. I'd like to now shift to our strategy and provide some updates as it relates to our four growth and value drivers. The first, optimizing our fleet.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Our monthly rental revenue per average horsepower, which was $26.28 for the full year 2024, representing a 10% increase over 2023 and a 30% increase over 2022. This number is calculated as fiscal year rental revenue divided by the average utilized horsepower, divided by 12 to bring it monthly. The increase is due to a combination of the fleet mix as well as increased prices. We have been able to capture higher prices given the value we provide to our customers, and it's not just the units. It's the combination of high runtimes our equipment provides and a true service partnership. Additionally, we continue to make significant information system improvements throughout our business at the corporate level in terms of tracking financial and operational data, and at the unit level in terms of monitoring and performance.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

This investment is driving even better service for our customers, which is a competitive differentiator while helping us manage our business more effectively. With respect to the second driver, asset utilization, which comprises converting non-cash assets into cash and increasing the utilization of our existing fleet, we made significant progress this past year with even more opportunities to improve in front of us. Accounts receivable, or AR, was a high-priority target at the beginning of the year. We successfully reduced AR by $23.6 million, and our AR now stands at $15.6 million. This released nearly $2 per share in cash to fund our growth. Our DSOs went from nearly 100 days at year-end 2023 to 35 days at year-end 2024. I commend the entire finance and operations team for their tireless commitment to improve the capital efficiency of our business.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

As I look ahead, we have other significant opportunities to improve asset utilization and our balance sheet. We have an income tax receivable of approximately $11 million. We are approaching the final stage in the refund process, which typically takes less than one year. We have opportunities to further reduce inventory, and we have owned real estate we will look to monetize in the near term. Collectively, I believe the aggregate net cash creation opportunity is greater than what we've seen in AR over 2024, and we hope to capitalize on a good deal of this in 2025. Lastly, I'll add that in terms of horsepower utilization, we're increasing every quarter, and the vast preponderance of idle units are small and medium horsepower. We're continuing to review options for technology upgrades, electric conversions, and monetization to improve our utilization.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

All of this remains part of our central strategy to improve the cash flow and capital efficiency of the business. The third driver is fleet expansion. Every quarter, we grew rented horsepower throughout 2024. In 2025 and into the first quarter of 2026, we expect to see significant increases in our large horsepower rental fleet based on contracts secured to date, including a material increase in electric motor drive units. Our guidance is based on planned customer deployment dates, and as I'll discuss shortly during my closing remarks, we expect a material ramp in the second half of the year, continuing into early 2026. One additional point I will make here is customer diversification. In 2025, we have a key customer that will grow throughout the year, ultimately becoming our second largest customer with well over 10% of our revenue once all units are set.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

With respect to the fourth driver, M&A, we continue to evaluate the market for opportunities that could significantly improve our business, competitive position, and returns. At the same time, we are focused on improving our existing business. We believe we are in a very strong position to continue to generate above 20% returns with our business and even more confident with the contracts we have secured and deployments that are scheduled. We have seen some consolidation and believe there will be deal flow in the coming year or years. We will remain opportunistic and at the same time disciplined. I will have more to discuss after Ian highlights our fourth quarter progress. It is now, with my great pleasure, I introduce our new CFO, Ian Eckert.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thank you, Justin, and good morning to those joining us. Let me summarize the financial highlights of our fourth quarter and full year results. Revenue for the quarter of $40.7 million was up year-on-year when compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 by 12% and effectively flat sequentially when compared to the third quarter of 2024. Rental revenue of $38.2 million was up year-on-year and sequentially by 21% and 2%, respectively, reflecting continued addition of large horsepower compression packages. Total adjusted gross margin for the quarter of $23 million increased year-on-year and sequentially by $2.7 million and $0.1 million, respectively. These results included a year-on-year and sequential decline in sales adjusted gross margin of $1.1 million and $0.3 million, respectively.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

This was driven by our fabrication and assembly operations as we continue to shift our business away from fabrication of new compressor packages, as reflected in the announced termination of fabrication and assembly activities at our Midland, Texas facility. Total adjusted gross margin percentages continued to expand both year-on-year and sequentially to 56.5% as we continue to see rental adjusted gross margin percentage above 60%. Net income for the quarter of $2.9 million increased year-on-year by $1.2 million, or 68%, driven by rental adjusted gross margin, resulting in $0.23 of diluted earnings per share. Sequentially, net income decreased by $2.1 million, primarily driven by the inventory allowance and decrease in sales gross profit, both of which relate to the closure of our Midland fabrication operations along with the intangible asset impairment.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Additionally, SG&A expenses for the quarter increased slightly compared to $5.5 million in the third quarter, driven primarily by stock-based compensation expenses. Adjusted EBITDA in the quarter of $18 million, an increase year-on-year of $1.7 million, and roughly flat sequentially. Rented units on December 31, 2024, represented 491,756 horsepower compared to 420,432 horsepower in December of 2023, an increase in total utilized horsepower of 17%. Similarly, horsepower utilization increased to 82.1% in the fourth quarter compared with 80.8% in the prior year. Turning to the balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $170 million outstanding on our amended and restated revolving credit facility. Looking at the two financial covenants contained in our credit agreement, our leverage ratio in the fourth quarter of 2024 was 2.36, up slightly from 2.25 as of the third quarter.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Our fixed charge coverage ratio for the quarter was 2.44, meaning that we are comfortably in compliance with both of our financial covenants as of December 31st, 2024. Accounts receivable on December 31st, 2024, were $15.6 million, a $23.6 million decrease from the prior year. This reduction reflects a material decrease in our days sales outstanding statistic for accounts receivable and is a result of our continued efforts to monetize non-cash assets. We generated cash flow from operations of $66.5 million in the year. Our capital expenditures in the year totaled $71.9 million, which can be broken out to $60.5 million of growth CapEx, with the remaining $11.4 million related to maintenance CapEx. With that, I'll turn it back over to Justin to discuss our guidance and closing remarks.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thank you, Ian. Simply put, 2024 was a record-breaking year for Natural Gas Services Group, and I believe the future will be even better. Over the past few years, we've made tremendous strides to solidify our already strong competitive position. Today, I believe our technology and service can compete against anyone. We will continue to invest in innovation, building the appropriate infrastructure, and driving outsized returns for shareholders. As we look ahead to 2025, we are guiding to adjusted EBITDA in the range of $74 million-$78 million, which at the midpoint represents just under a 10% increase over 2024. Our expected range for 2025 growth CapEx is between $95 million and $120 million. Almost all this capital will go to new large horsepower units, essentially all of which are already under contract.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

At the midpoint of the growth CapEx range, $107.5 million, our growth capital increased by approximately 75% over 2024 and will be the second highest total in the company's history. We had previously guided to growth CapEx of $90 million-$110 million for 2025. The increase is based on contracted new orders for 2026 deployments, where some capital will be spent in 2025, along with some slippage of planned 2024 growth capital that will fall into 2025, which is purely due to timing at year-end. The new orders for 2026 are substantial in quantity. They are all large horsepower and pre-contracted with large existing customers. I would further note that a substantial majority of the units are electric drive as we continue to build on our success in this area. It is my view that 2026 will be another year of significant growth in new unit horsepower.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

As we noted in the earnings release, the timing of new unit deployments will be very heavily weighted to the second half of 2025, with some units likely getting deployed in early 2026. This is in response to customer timing. While we do have units getting deployed in the first half, a very significant majority of the horsepower will be thereafter. As we are still several quarters from many of these deployments, it is difficult to put too fine of a point on the timing, particularly when many of these dates straddle quarter or the year-end. A weak move in either direction can push the period in which the unit is deployed. Once all units are set, we are very confident in the increased earnings power of the business. As noted in the release, once all the units are deployed, the rented horsepower would be up 18% versus year-end 2024.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Once all of these units are deployed and we get a full period of EBITDA, we believe our adjusted EBITDA will increase at a rate well in excess of the 18% horsepower increase. To confirm, I'm comparing this increase to our $18 million of adjusted EBITDA in Q4. I know many of you will ask, "What does well in excess mean?" I'd frame it as significantly above 18%, but less than double the growth rate. I hope this helps our investors understand the magnitude of the EBITDA growth. In many ways, this is very similar to 2023, when significant capital was spent for EBITDA increased materially. While not exactly the same in terms of timing, I do see a similar story playing out. History does rhyme. I trust our investors will refresh themselves as to our 2023 results, both from a financial perspective and in terms of shareholder value increase.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Our outlook for 2024 maintenance CapEx is $10 million-$13 million, or $11.5 million at the midpoint. The majority of this maintenance CapEx, as previously noted, will be related to our rental compression units with smaller amounts for field equipment, including trucks and other equipment. The modest increase versus 2024 reflects the continued growth of our fleet. In terms of return on invested capital for growth CapEx, our target remains at least 20%. In closing, we delivered in 2024. We fully expect to deliver in 2025, and the opportunities for meaningful growth and value in the years beyond are there. It's up to us to execute our plan, and I am confident in the team we've assembled and the path that we are on. We will continue to improve the capital efficiency of our business while delivering for our customers. Our balance sheet remains strong.

[Ian Eckert, CFO at Natural Gas Services Group]

We are growing organically, and I believe we are taking market share. We continue to add new customers, grow our large horsepower compression fleet, and enhance our offerings. We have improved our relationships with capital market providers to continue to finance our organic growth and M&A opportunities as they arise. I believe 2024 was an instrumental year in setting the company up for continued great things in the years ahead. At this time, we're ready to open up the call. Luke.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we will conduct a question and answer session. If you would like to state a question, please press seven pound on your phone now. Again, that's seven pound, and you will be placed in the queue in the order received. You can press seven pound again to remove yourself from the queue. We are now ready to begin. We currently have four people with questions, starting with Hale Hoak, Hoak & Company. Go ahead, please.

[Hale Hoak, Analyst at Hoak & Co.]

Hey, Justin. Congratulations on a good quarter and, more importantly, on the transformation of the company over the last couple of years.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thanks, Al. Appreciate the call.

[Hale Hoak, Analyst at Hoak & Co.]

Just to clarify, I know you came at the guidance, and you do not want to put too fine a point on it given the difficulty in predicting when units actually get set, which I totally appreciate. You gave guidance that I am coming at a little differently. I show Q4 run rate EBITDA of about $72 million. Assuming you put $100 million of capital to work with a 20% return, that gets us kind of in the low to mid-$90 million of EBITDA. I understand that probably will not occur until maybe first or second quarter of 2026, but just wanted to make sure I am thinking about that correctly.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

I think that's without putting kind of specific numbers, and I think that's generally a reasonable way to think about it.

[Hale Hoak, Analyst at Hoak & Co.]

Okay. Great. Congratulations to you and the team. Thank you.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thanks again, Hale.

[Operator]

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Mr. John Daniel, Daniel Energy Partners. Go ahead, please.

[John Daniel, Founder and CEO at Daniel Energy Partners]

Hey, guys. Good morning. Thanks for including me on the call.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Good morning, John. Thanks for calling in.

[John Daniel, Founder and CEO at Daniel Energy Partners]

You bet. You noted the strong demand in 2026. I'm just curious, at what point would it make sense? Also, long lead times for equipment, when does it make sense to start placing orders for second half 2026, maybe 2027 deliveries?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

The orders for 2026 that we've received are throughout the year. In terms of the timing of orders with our partners, I mean, we're really in process of placing all those as we're getting the contracts. It really depends on the deployment schedule that the customer is asking for us. We haven't hit into anything in 2027 at this point. It's really focused on 2026, but it is throughout the course of the year 2026.

[John Daniel, Founder and CEO at Daniel Energy Partners]

Okay. Just a sort of a dumb question for me, but trying to understand the contract negotiating cycle, when would you expect those customers to start making the inquiries about stuff for 2027?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

We saw for 2026 orders, we were starting to have conversations with some of the larger customers who were planning pretty far out, really in the fourth quarter, and started to see coming to contract terms really in the first quarter of 2025. It is not universal in terms of customers looking that far out, but we are looking at 12-18 months in advance of needs of deployment. It is just kind of a rough sense.

[John Daniel, Founder and CEO at Daniel Energy Partners]

Yeah. That's fine. I was just looking for ballpark. Thank you very much for including me.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Absolutely. Thank you, John.

[Operator]

Thank you very much. Our next question comes from Selman Akyol with Stifel. Go ahead, sir.

[Analyst at Stifel]

Good morning. This is Tyler on for Selman.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Good morning, Tyler.

[Analyst at Stifel]

Good morning. On a dollar-per-horsepower basis, are you guys starting to see things flatten as most contracts have sort of already gone through that inflationary cycle and people are re-upping and we're sort of coming to the end of that roll?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

I assume you're speaking about revenue, correct?

[Analyst at Stifel]

Yes. Yes.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Yeah. I think I've mentioned this on one of the previous calls. Clearly, there was a significant increase in prices over the last several years. That curve is certainly flattening relative to increases that were well in the double digits. I'd say there's still, as I think I mentioned in the previous call, an upward bias to prices, but nowhere near at the rate which we saw the last couple of years, which clearly you wouldn't see those types of percentage increases continue.

[Analyst at Stifel]

Understood. You had mentioned the M&A earlier and possible deal flow in the next year or two. Is that across all geographies? Is that Permian-specific, sort of where are people looking to sell?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

I don't know that it's specific to any particular geography. To the extent that Permian is involved, it's just because that's where the production is. Most players have, I won't say all, but most players are going to have at least some exposure, if not material exposure, to Permian. I don't see it as a particular geography, more of just companies that I think are going to be coming to the market in some form in the coming year or a couple of years.

[Analyst at Stifel]

Understood. Thank you.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Sure.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our next question comes from Mr. Jim Rollyson with Raymond James. Go ahead, sir.

[Jim Rollyson, Analyst at Raymond James]

Hey, good morning, guys.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Morning, Jim.

[Analyst at Stifel]

Justin, one of the things throughout 2024 we got to see with your numbers and results, obviously, was margin performance that you guys talked about earlier being up 650 basis points year over year. I feel like every quarter you had a great quarter and then kind of guided more conservatively. Not sure it would repeat itself, and it generally kind of stayed in that 60-plus % range for the most part. As you look at your guidance in 2025 and as you get all these new units delivered in 2026, maybe how you think about the margin profile kind of of that business on new prices, etc., how that looks?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

I think the rate of increase that I quoted earlier in the call and you just referenced, we're not going to see that level of increase going forward. As you look at the fleet mix, and I quoted this earlier, more than 70% of the rented horsepower as of year-end 2024 is in the large. Just the magnitude of the fleet mix shift is going to not just be high of a rate of change. I think that as we add horsepower, there still will be some bias up. The flip side is labor's not getting any easier, and it's not getting any cheaper. Have we been conservative? I think we've been appropriately conservative. Our goal is obviously to try and beat, but just the magnitude of the change, I don't see that staying anywhere near that rate of increase.

[Analyst at Stifel]

Understood. Curious if you've also mentioned a majority of your new horsepower on order being electric drive, if that has any impact in your mind on the margin or if that's really kind of agnostic?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

In the shorter term, I think it's more a function of it's all large horsepower. It may have slightly higher margins. It may. It's really the fact that we're looking at all kind of large horsepower, whether natural gas-driven or electric motor.

[Analyst at Stifel]

Gotcha. Last one for me, you also mentioned some of the unlocking of cash this past year with working capital, which you guys did a fantastic job with. As you look into 2025, you mentioned the tax receivable. You also mentioned the real estate and capturing a portion of that. Any sense of kind of how much of that you think you could actually get accomplished in 2025?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

I think on the income tax receivable, I will say that we're cautiously optimistic that we get that in 2025. There are obviously a fair number of changes happening in different government regulatory agencies and taxing authorities and can't really speak as to the potential impact there other than it's probably not helpful. That being said, I mentioned we're approaching the final stage, which we're hoping will happen soon. That final stage, our understanding, typically happens in less than a year. We're hopeful we get that in 2025. The real estate side, we're actively working and have been working on that pretty significantly in the past couple of quarters. There may require some modest investment there to get monetization. The exact timing is a little bit difficult to predict there, other than I can say that we're not in the real estate business.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

We're in the rental compression business, and that's where we want our capital.

[Jim Rollyson, Analyst at Raymond James]

Understood. Appreciate all the color. Thanks.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thanks, Jim.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Jay Spencer. Go ahead, please. Your line is open. Jay Spencer with Stifel.

[Jay Spencer, Analyst at Stifel]

Thanks for the call and congrats on a good quarter. Can you just elaborate a little bit on the lead times to get components? Are there still long lead times for engines? What about the electric drive side? Can you talk about the lead times there?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Sure. The three parts or partners that I look at in terms of lead times, the drives where engines really aren't getting any shorter. I mean, you're still looking generally somewhere around kind of the nine-month range, plus or minus. Electric drives are going to be shorter than that, at least for us. The compressor frames, you're talking about kind of six to nine months. The fabrication capability, I think, is proving to be kind of the long pole in the tent in that kind of at least nine months. That's what we've communicated to customers, is ensuring that fabrication capability, you want to make sure you have that locked in to get deployments when you want them. We're not seeing that move materially in. If anything, it's at least as long as it's been.

[Jay Spencer, Analyst at Stifel]

Gotcha. Okay. Thank you. On a related note, the growth CapEx of $95 million-$120 million in CapEx, how should we think about how that is spent over the course of this year? Is it heavily weighted toward the back end along with deliveries, or just what do you expect generally the pacing of that to be?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

It is going to be more heavily weighted in terms of the CapEx to the back half of the year, although CapEx is spent in advance of deployments. It is not as heavily weighted. We also had some slippage, as I referenced, from the fourth quarter into the first quarter. We are looking to see exactly what that number is going to be. It is more ratable over the year, although still heavily weighted to the second half.

[Jay Spencer, Analyst at Stifel]

Okay. All right. Thank you. I appreciate your time.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thanks, Jay.

[Operator]

Thank you very much. Again, if you have any questions, please press 7 pound so you can queue up. Our next question comes from Mr. Rob Brown, Lake Street Capital. Go ahead, please.

[Rob Brown, Senior Research Analyst at Lake Street Capital]

Morning. First question's on just the overall demand environment comment you had about oil sort of stabilizing and you're seeing demand. Are you really seeing demand come back, or are you seeing it booked for really booking now for 2026, and it's sort of set for 2025?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Morning, Rob. Thanks for calling in. Sorry. The 2025 is more a function of just lead times that, as we've communicated to customers, we'll have some one-offs here and there. I'm not saying we can't get a new unit fabricated within the course of calendar 2025. But being in March and just seeing the lead times, that's really kind of driving our look forward to 2026, is there's not enough time to get a material amount of units in this year, other than what we already have contracted.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

The 2026 is really a function of explanations to customers of, "If you want new units, this is the time frame you need to look at there." I don't know that I would say there's been a material, although there's been a material shift in oil prices over the past couple of quarters, I wouldn't say that there's a material difference in demand. We're continuing to see strong demand for compression and significant portions related to oil.

[Rob Brown, Senior Research Analyst at Lake Street Capital]

Okay. Great. Maybe the electric demand that you're seeing, the electric drive demand, what's the market dynamics happening there? I think you said a majority of units are now electric drive. Just elaborate on what's happening in the environment there.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

That is, I think, really driven by availability of power for the customers. Are they going to have the electricity to be able to power those units? In some cases, the answer is yes. In many other cases, the answer is no. This has not happened to us, but I have heard stories in the market where customers thought they were going to have electricity and then found out as they were starting to deploy or in advance of deployment that, in fact, they were not going to have the required amount of power. That is really the kind of big factor as it relates to electric drives, availability.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Clearly, if you read in the press, the demand for electricity is increasing materially relative to the recent past and the ability to get the power for these types of units, which require, particularly in large horsepower, you're talking about significant electricity demands that need to be there 24/7, 365 to make sure these units are running properly. There is just a lot of uncertainty around that. It really goes back to conversations we have with our customers and asking them what they want, and we're letting them drive the decision between natural gas engines and electric motors.

[Rob Brown, Senior Research Analyst at Lake Street Capital]

Okay. Great. Thank you. I'll turn it over.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thanks, Rob.

[Operator]

Thank you. Our last question comes from Brittany Sivia, Maxim Group.

[Brittany Sivia, Analyst at Maxim Group]

Hi. Good morning. Congratulations on your results. My first question has to deal with your Tulsa facility. Do you plan on expanding it more with more capital expenditures planned for 2025 and after you close your Midland fabrication facility?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Good morning, Brittany. Thanks for calling in. In regards to Tulsa, we do not have plans to expand that. The incremental fabrication that we are doing for the new units is going to third parties. We are fabricating at the Tulsa facility for some of our rental fleet. It is typically the smaller end of our large horsepower units in terms of size. That is just constraints that are inherent there at that facility, the size of unit that we can currently do. We will not expand that to do the larger end of the large horsepower units just because of the amount of capital that we have spent with third parties starting going back to 2023, which is a huge capital spend year for us. 2024, a significant year, and 2025, as I mentioned, going to be the second largest in our history.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

We're actually one of the larger purchasers of rental units from third-party fabricators, which positions us quite nicely with them. To the extent that we're growing at faster rates, we'll go to third parties to build most of that for us.

[Brittany Sivia, Analyst at Maxim Group]

Okay. Got it. Just since you're doing more outsourcing and factoring, what would be the potential margin impact? Or is there any potential margin impact at all?

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

It's not so much really on the margins because that's driven by our rental rates and our ongoing operating costs, which are all internal or mostly internal costs. It really has to do with the fabrication, the capital, of which at this point in the north of 1,000 horsepower, we can't fabricate that internally anyway. It is just contracting with third-party fabricators. It is really capital costs, not a margin.

[Brittany Sivia, Analyst at Maxim Group]

Okay. Got it. All right. That's all for me. Thank you.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Great. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you very much. We have no other questions.

[Justin Jacobs, CEO at Natural Gas Services Group]

Thank you, Luke. Thanks for all of your questions and participation on the call. We sincerely appreciate your support. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the next quarter. Thank you again for your time.

[Operator]

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you, everyone, for attending.

Participants

Executives

• Anna Delgado, Head of Investor Relations
• Justin Jacobs, CEO
• Ian Eckert, CFO

Analysts

• Hale Hoak, Analyst at Hoak & Co.
• John Daniel, Founder and CEO at Daniel Energy Partners
• Analyst at Stifel
• Jim Rollyson, Analyst at Raymond James
• Jay Spencer, Analyst at Stifel
• Rob Brown, Senior Research Analyst at Lake Street Capital
• Brittany Sivia, Analyst at Maxim Group