Octave Specialty Group Q1 2025 Earnings Report

Octave Specialty Group EPS Results

• Actual EPS: -$0.13
• Consensus EPS: -$0.07
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.06
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Octave Specialty Group Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $15.68 million
• Expected Revenue: $33.00 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$17.32 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Octave Specialty Group Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2025
• Date: 5/12/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Tuesday, May 13, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 8:30AM ET

Ambac Financial Group, Inc. operates as a financial services holding company. It operates three businesses: Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance, Insurance Distribution, and Legacy Financial Guarantee (LFG) Insurance. The Specialty Property and Casualty Insurance business provides specialty property and casualty program insurance with a focus commercial and personal liability risks. The Insurance Distribution business includes the specialty property and casualty insurance distribution business, which includes managing general agents and underwriters, insurance wholesalers, brokers, and other distribution businesses. The LFG Insurance business offers financial guarantee insurance policies that provide an unconditional and irrevocable guarantee, which protects the holder of a debt obligation against non-payment when due of the principal and interest on the obligations guaranteed. Ambac Financial Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

Octave Specialty Group Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Ambac's insurance distribution and specialty program business delivered $318 million of premium, up 70%, and $63 million of revenue, up 27%, primarily driven by the acquisition of Beat which contributed over $20 million of revenue.
• The Serata segment generated over $230 million of premium, up 156%, and launched six new MGAs in 2024, with two of the startups achieving profitability within their first year.
• On an organic basis, growth contracted 2% due to a strategic pullback in ESL and short‐term medical, though excluding those lines would have produced nearly 12% organic growth for the quarter.
• Ambac reported a net loss from continuing operations of $16 million (EPS loss of $0.58) and an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1 million, reflecting increased expenses and interest related to the Beat acquisition.
• With regulatory approval pending for the sale of its legacy business, Ambac is transforming into a pure‐play specialty P&C insurer and aims to generate $80 – $90 million of adjusted EBITDA by 2028, leveraging its access to capacity, permanent capital, and a tech‐focused shared services model.

Presentation

[Operator]

Welcome to the Ambac Financial Group first quarter 2025 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star and then zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to Charles Sebaski, Head of Investor Relations.

[Charles Sebaski, Managing Director and Head of Investor Relations at Ambac Financial Group]

Thank you. Good morning and welcome to Ambac's First Quarter 2025 call to discuss Financial Results. Speaking today will be Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO, and David Trick, Chief Financial Officer. They will discuss the Financial Results of our business and the current market environment, and after Prepared Remarks, we'll take your questions. For those of you following along on the webcast, during the Prepared Remarks, we'll be highlighting some slides from our Investor Presentation, which can be located on our website. Our call today includes Forward-Looking Statements. The company cautions investors that any Forward-Looking Statement involves risks and uncertainties and is not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in the Forward-Looking Statements due to a variety of factors.

[Charles Sebaski, Managing Director and Head of Investor Relations at Ambac Financial Group]

These factors are described under the Forward-Looking Statements in our earnings press release and our most recent 10Q and 10K filed with the SEC. We do not undertake any obligation to update Forward-Looking Statements. Also, in our Prepared Remarks or responses to questions, we may mention some non-GAAP Financial Measures. Reconciliation to those non-GAAP Measures is included in our Earnings Press Release, Operating Supplement, and other materials in the Investor Section on our website, ambac.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Claude LeBlanc.

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

Thank you, Charles, and welcome to everyone joining today's call. Ambac's Insurance Distribution and Specialty Program Business got off to a very strong start in 2025, producing $318 million of premium, up 70%, and generating $63 million of revenue, up 27%, both from the prior period last year.

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

This growth was primarily attributable to our Beat Acquisition, which alone contributed over $20 million of revenue in the quarter, representing growth of approximately 40% from Beat's Results in the first quarter of 2024. Looking at our Distribution Business Segment, Serata generated over $230 million of premium for the quarter, up 156%. We are starting 2025 with a much larger stable of startup MGAs than anticipated due to the successful launch of six new MGAs during 2024, which we believe will support strong Organic Growth into the future. While we expect new MGAs to attain profitability in 18-24 months on average, two of the six class of 2024 startups achieved profitability in the first 12 months.

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

For the first quarter, Organic Growth, excluding the Beat Acquisition, had a bit of headwind, contracting 2%, primarily driven by our pullback in ESL and short-term Medical Business due to the continued Industry Turbulence, which we outlined last quarter. Excluding our pullback in these two lines of business, our Organic Growth for the quarter would have been almost 12%. I would also like to point out that these figures are measured on a subset of MGAs, given that we do not include Organic Growth for 12 months post an acquisition. If Beat had been included in the Organic Growth computation this quarter, our consolidated Organic Growth would have been approximately 17% across all lines. One of our key strategic tenets is maintaining profitable underwriting results for our capacity and capital providers throughout market cycles.

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

While the market has seen challenges in ESL, we believe market conditions are stabilizing and beginning to turn favorable for growth. A&H lines of business are very diversified as a class and less correlated to the broader P&C Market, which makes them an attractive revenue and earnings diversifier to our overall portfolio. Beyond MGA startups, the other areas of focus that we believe will further materially enhance the Organic Growth of our platform include: one, Enhancement of Risk Capacity for our syndicates and our portfolio companies; two, Product Expansion and Diversification; three, Distribution Expansion to drive synergies across our platform.

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

Relative to some of our competitors, we have enormous white space to fill, and in line with the growth we have experienced to date, we see a lot of runway ahead of us for future growth, whether that is in the form of Organic, Inorganic, or Product Expansion from within our portfolio. In addition, we have a unique business model which we believe positions us well to attract top industry talent to our platform well into the future. Turning now to Everspan's results for the quarter, Everspan continues to manage through the underwriting decisions made last year, with the team focused on rebalancing Capital Allocation for expanding primary affiliate and market opportunities, with a de-emphasis on assumed programs. As a result, Everspan's Gross premiums written were approximately $87 million, down 10% from the prior year, while our loss ratio improved nearly 9% or 880 basis points.

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

This reduction in premium written increased Everspan's Expense Ratio, resulting in a combined ratio of 102 for the quarter. We believe the expense ratio will begin to trend more favorably in coming quarters as we migrate the portfolio and further scale our business. Turning to our Legacy Business, while outside of our control, the OCI approval process for the sale of our Legacy Business continues, and we look forward to the completion of the sale to effectuate our transformation to a pure-play specialty P&C insurance business. I will now turn the call over to David to discuss our Financial Results for the quarter. David.

[David Trick, EVP and CFO at Ambac Financial Group]

Thank you, Claude, and good morning, everyone. For the first quarter of 2025, Ambac generated a net loss from continuing operations to Shareholders of $16 million or $0.58 per share, compared to a loss of $4 million or $0.09 per share in the first quarter of 2024. Discontinued operations produced a net loss of $30 million or $0.64 per share in the first quarter of 2025. As a reminder, the Financial Performance of our Legacy Financial Guarantee Business reported through discontinued operations has no impact on the economics of the pending sale transaction, despite its inclusion in our consolidated Financial Results. This quarter, EPS included approximately $0.23 per share of headwind from the change in carrying value of redeemable non-controlling interest as a result of the execution of option agreements with regards to certain of the minority interests underlying the Beat MGAs.

[David Trick, EVP and CFO at Ambac Financial Group]

Adjusted EBITDA from continuing operations to stockholders was a loss of $1 million compared to a slight profit in the first quarter of 2024. Total revenues from continuing operations were up 27% to $63 million in the first quarter compared to the first quarter of 2024, driven primarily by the acquisition of Beat. Total expenses from continuing operations of $78 million compared to $53 million in the first quarter of 2024. Compared to last year, the increase in expenses was driven by a $21 million increase in General and Administrative Expenses, including $15.5 million related to the acquisition of Beat and Transactional Expenses, an $8 million increase in intangible amortization related to the Beat Acquisition, and interest expense of $5 million related to the short-term Beat Financing that would be repaid with the proceeds from the sale of the legacy business.

[David Trick, EVP and CFO at Ambac Financial Group]

These increases were partially offset by lower losses incurred by Everspan. Serata Revenue increased by 129% compared to the first quarter of 2024 to $41 million. The growth was driven primarily by the acquisition of Beat Capital and strength in specialty Commercial Auto, partially offset by headwinds in certain A&H lines and deceleration in property line pricing. On an operating basis, that is, before the impact of non-controlling interest, Serata produced $12 million of Adjusted EBITDA on a 29.5% margin compared to $5 million on a 28.7% margin in the first quarter of 2024. Serata contributed Adjusted EBITDA to shareholders of $7.1 million for the quarter at a 17.3% margin, up 69% compared to $4.2 million at a 23.5% margin for the first quarter of 2024. The lower margin in first quarter of 2025 versus first quarter of 2024 related to the impact of non-controlling interest in Beat.

[David Trick, EVP and CFO at Ambac Financial Group]

The impact of non-controlling interest on bottom-line margins may flex a bit quarter to quarter, depending on the relative performance of each underlying MGA compared to our ownership level, but will converge over time with margins on an operating basis as we buy in portions of the non-controlling interest. Everspan's Net written and Net earned premiums in the quarter were $18 million and $16 million, down from $26 million and $26 million, respectively, from the prior year period due to the previously announced non-renewal of a personal lines NSA Reinsurance Program and step back from certain Commercial Auto Programs. The loss ratio of 66.9% in the first quarter of 2025 improved from 75.7% in the first quarter of 2024. The quarter benefited from these underwriting actions and is performing more in line with our longer-term expectations.

[David Trick, EVP and CFO at Ambac Financial Group]

The expense ratio of 35.2% in the first quarter of 2025 was up from 22.7% in the prior year quarter. This increase was driven by the prior year period having a 6% benefit from sliding scale commissions compared to no benefit this quarter and the lower earned premium base. The resulting combined ratio for the first quarter of 102.1% is up 370 basis points from 98.4% last year to date. For the quarter, Everspan produced under $2 million of Adjusted EBITDA to Stockholders, slightly less than the result for the first quarter of 2024. AFG, on a standalone basis, excluding investments in subsidiaries, had cash investments and net receivables of approximately $104 million or $2.25 per share. I will now turn the call back to Claude for some closing remarks.

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

Thank you, David. As we await final regulatory approval for the sale of our legacy business, we have set our sights squarely on the growth of our specialty P&C Business, where market conditions present significant opportunities to scale our platform. We believe the unique value proposition of our platform, which includes: one, access to managed capacity; two, permanent capital with access to future growth capital; three, an aligned partnership model; and four, a technology-focused shared service model committed to the development of strong data and AI capabilities and providing key risk and underwriting oversight to our MGA Businesses, not only strengthens our position in the market, but also enhances our appeal to MGA Partners and capacity providers.

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

The overall attractiveness of this value proposition was evidenced by our ability to launch six new MGAs last year, led by recognized Industry Leaders, each of whom had many options and partners to build their businesses. As I've noted previously, we are building our business for the long term, and as our business model continues to resonate in the specialty MGA and delegated authority program space, I believe we are well positioned to achieve our long-term goals of generating $80 million-$90 million of Adjusted EBITDA to Ambac's common Shareholders in 2028. I look forward to updating you on our progress in the coming quarters. Operator, please open the call for questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one on a telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star and then two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. The first question we have is from Maxwell Fritscher of Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

[Maxwell Fritscher, Analyst at Truist Securities]

Hi, good morning. I'm one from Marquis. When you're ramping up these MGAs, how important is staffing to the top-line growth? Off that, what are you seeing in the market in terms of Recruiting, Hiring, and Retaining experienced people?

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

Thanks for the question, Marquis. Good morning. Yes, staffing is something that we look at for individual MGAs, but we're also exploring it, again, depending on the niche and the specialization of the MGA on a shared service basis. It is something that we look at both holistically and for individual MGAs. I would say the opportunities for staffing and growth are significant. I think the attractiveness of our business model, which I outlined a few minutes ago, along with a strong recruitment effort for top talent, has served us well, both for producers as well as strong underwriting talent. We see a deep pipeline of those opportunities in our queue.

[Maxwell Fritscher, Analyst at Truist Securities]

Understood. Could you provide an update on your mix of property versus casualty and how that's impacting the outlook for growth and anywhere you're seeing more opportunity?

[David Trick, EVP and CFO at Ambac Financial Group]

Sure, Max. Property is a critical part of the platform. Most of our property business comes out of the Beat Platform. I would say that going forward, the liability side of the book is going to be the primary source of growth. That is our casualty-focused business. We are certainly focused on diversifying the book continuously. We still find attractive the property side of the business. As you know, pricing has started to soften a bit in that sector, but we still find the returns there very attractive. The key has been to diversify the different segments of the property base that we are operating in. The other area that we find particularly attractive as well is the A&H Space, which is an important component of the platform going forward.

[Maxwell Fritscher, Analyst at Truist Securities]

Got it. Thank you. And then just more broadly, can you comment on the competitive environment?

[Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO at Ambac Financial Group]

The competition is certainly out there, and I'd say growing in certain areas of the market. Again, we believe that our differentiation with our capacity relationships and access to managed capacity and our differentiators on our model allows us to attract top talent in our business. The competition with other business models, again, we do see it, and it is more frequent, and it is something that we're keeping a close eye on.

[Maxwell Fritscher, Analyst at Truist Securities]

Great. Thank you for taking my questions.

[Operator]

We are now fixing questions at this time, and this concludes today's teleconference. We thank you for participating. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you.

Participants

Executives

• Claude LeBlanc, President and CEO
• David Trick, EVP and CFO

Analysts

• Charles Sebaski, Managing Director and Head of Investor Relations at Ambac Financial Group
• Maxwell Fritscher, Analyst at Truist Securities