Ardmore Shipping Q1 2025 Earnings Report

Ardmore Shipping EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.14
• Consensus EPS: $0.15
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.01
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.92

Ardmore Shipping Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $74.00 million
• Expected Revenue: $43.04 million
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$30.95 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: -30.40%

Ardmore Shipping Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2025
• Date: 5/7/2025
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, May 7, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Ardmore Shipping (NYSE:ASC) is a Bermuda-based provider of seaborne transportation services for refined petroleum products. The company owns and operates a modern fleet of product tankers, including medium-range (MR), long-range 2 (LR2) and Aframax vessels. Ardmore Shipping focuses on the ocean carriage of clean and dirty petroleum products under time charters, bareboat charters and spot voyages, serving a diverse customer base that includes major oil companies and trading houses.

Since its founding in 2005, Ardmore Shipping has grown its fleet through newbuilding contracts, second-hand acquisitions and fleet renewals, aiming to maintain a high quality, fuel-efficient profile. The company’s vessels typically range from 45,000 to 115,000 deadweight tons, and are equipped to carry a broad slate of petroleum cargoes. With offices in Bermuda and Dublin, Ardmore Shipping positions its fleet to serve key global trade lanes, including the U.S. Gulf Coast, Europe, the Mediterranean, the Middle East and Asia.

Ardmore Shipping completed its initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange in late 2014, raising capital to support fleet expansion and diversification. The company’s management team brings extensive experience in marine operations, chartering, finance and risk management. Ardmore Shipping maintains a focus on operational excellence, safety and environmental compliance, seeking to meet evolving regulatory standards and customer expectations in the tanker market.

Ardmore Shipping Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Ardmore delivered Q1 2025 adjusted earnings of $5.6 million (€0.14/share) with MR TCEs at $20,900/day, declared a quarterly dividend equal to one-third of adjusted earnings, and maintained a low cash breakeven of $11,500/day.
• The global product tanker fleet is at its oldest since 2000 with over 50% of vessels to become scrapping candidates within five years, while newbuilds represent only 14% of capacity and Western sanctions plus USTR actions further constrain supply—creating a two-tier market that favors Ardmore’s compliant fleet.
• Underlying demand remains supportive as refinery margins have strengthened, OPEC+ is set to increase production, and ongoing refinery closures in the West alongside growth in Eastern petrochemical capacity are driving incremental tonne-miles.
• Ardmore’s disciplined capital allocation balances shareholder returns with efficient fleet reinvestment, having substantially cut debt, achieved CapEx IRRs of 20–100% on coatings and efficiency projects, and leveraged AI and digital tools to optimize chartering and operations.
• The company announced leadership transitions with long-time COO Marc Cameron retiring, Robert Gayner promoted to COO/CCO, and John Russell named CFO, highlighting Ardmore’s emphasis on internal talent development and continuity of strategic execution.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Today's call is being recorded, and an audio webcast and presentation are available in the investor relations section of the company's website, ardmoreshipping.com. We will conduct a question and answer session after the opening remarks. Instructions will follow at that time. A replay of the conference call will be accessible anytime during the next two weeks by dialing 1-888-660-6345 or 1-646-517-4150 and entering passcode 70822, followed by the pound key or hash symbol. At this time, I will turn the call over to Gernot Ruppelt, Chief Executive Officer of Ardmore Shipping.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Good morning and welcome to Ardmore Shipping's first quarter 2025 earnings call. First, let me ask our President and CFO, Bart Kelleher, to discuss forward-looking statements.

[Bart Kelleher, President and CFO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Thanks, Gernot. Turning to slide two, please allow me to remind you that our discussion today contains forward-looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements. Additional information concerning factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those in the forward-looking statements is contained in the first quarter 2025 earnings release, which is available on our website. I will now turn the call back over to Gernot.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Thank you, Bart. Let me first outline the format of today's call, which you can see here on slide three. I'll start by discussing our first quarter highlights and our capital allocation policy. I will then hand the call over to Bart, who will cover the market outlook and provide an update on our financial and operational performance. Thereafter, I will conclude the presentation before opening up the call for questions. However, before we jump into the presentation, I want to pause for just a moment and acknowledge that since we convened with many of you during our investor day about three months ago, we all have witnessed an exceptionally busy news cycle and lived through volatile equity markets. There is much debate and speculation about what this means in terms of economic impact.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Therefore, we want to highlight three key points about Ardmore and our industry at the start of this call, and we will cover this in greater detail during the presentation. For one, Ardmore's balance sheet and our low break-even make us more robust than ever across a wide range of economic scenarios. Secondly, although broader markets experience turmoil, product freight markets have remained resilient. Already strong refining margins should be further supported by OPEC oil production increases, and the global tanker fleet is the oldest in decades. Third, our fleet composition, our lean operating platform, and our capital structure are the result of deliberate strategic choices, always guided by industry-leading governance and a balanced approach to allocating capital through the cycle. With that, we return to our usual format and direct your attention to slide four.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

We are pleased to announce our first quarter results, delivering adjusted earnings of $5.6 million or $0.14 per share. Overall, market fundamentals remain constructive despite macro headwinds with positive supply-side dynamics. Meanwhile, our financial strength allows us to dynamically execute on our capital allocation policy. Today, we declared another quarterly cash dividend consistent with our policy of paying out one-third of adjusted earnings. Furthermore, we are continuing to invest in our fleet. We have upgraded the tank coatings on our chemical tankers to further expand revenue opportunities by increasing cargo flexibility. Last quarter, we delivered MR earnings of $20,900 per day, and we remain focused on tight cost management with a low cash break-even level of $11,500 per day. Moving to slide five, our TCE performance reflects continued strength, defying typical seasonal norms. Rates remain significantly above our cash break-even level.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Our MRs earned $20,900 per day for the first quarter and $22,100 per day so far in the second quarter, with 50% booked. Meanwhile, our chemical tankers are experiencing a significant step up, having earned $15,000 per day for the first quarter and earning $19,500 per day for the second quarter, with 60% booked. Turning to slide six, where we discuss our long-standing capital allocation policy, which reflects our strategic through-the-cycle approach. We are committed to dynamically balancing the return of cash to shareholders with reinvestment in our fleet in order to enable sustainable value creation through the cycle. In the first quarter, we declared our 10th consecutive dividend since the reinitiation of our dividend policy in 2022. We continue to invest in efficiency projects across our fleet, achieving low payback periods and IRRs ranging from 20% to over 100%.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

We upgraded the coatings on four of our chemical tankers, with the remaining two to be completed this quarter. This aligns with Ardmore's trading strategy. It offers the flexibility to move deeper into the premium end of the cargo slate, boosting earnings accordingly. While we always track and evaluate potential transactions, we have taken the opportunity to significantly reduce our debt levels over the past years. With that, I'd like to hand it over to Bart.

[Bart Kelleher, President and CFO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Thanks, Gernot. Turning now to the market outlook and supply dynamics, starting with slide sight. Here we contrast an aging MR fleet and its natural replacement needs with the current order book. The chart on the left illustrates changes in the MR fleet over time. Currently, there's an exceptionally old fleet. Actually, it's the oldest fleet since the turn of the century, with an average age of over 14 years. Now, moving to the chart on the right, more than half of this fleet will be over 20 years old and scrapping candidates within the next five years. In contrast, the current order book, delivering over the same time period, represents only 14% of the fleet. The aging fleet is nearly four times the current order book. In addition, the pace of ordering has meaningfully decelerated since mid-2024.

[Bart Kelleher, President and CFO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

In fact, only four MR orders were placed in the first quarter of this year. Turning to slide nine, the pie charts on the left further depict the aging MR fleet. As mentioned in the previous slide, more than 50% of the fleet will be over 20 years old within the next five years. These older vessels trade at significantly lower utilization levels. The chart on the right highlights how they are typically empty over half of the time. While we do expect an increase in scrapping, regardless of this, the aging fleet will reduce effective supply even without actual vessel removals. Moving to slide 10, both the U.S. Trade Representative proposal to impose fees on Chinese vessels and the further expansion of Western sanctions are limiting supply. The USTR proposal is practically halting ordering activity in China and could impose a significant cost burden on Chinese tankers.

[Bart Kelleher, President and CFO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Fortunately, in this evolving situation, this is not a concern for Ardmore. Our Korea and Japan-built fleet continues to perform well and has full trading flexibility. In parallel, the additional step-ups in sanctions are also benefiting the compliant fleet. The sanctioned fleet has increased by 80% since the start of the year. Over 2,000 tankers are currently either sanctioned and/or operating in the dark fleet. These vessels are not properly insured, no longer available for compliant trades, and would have difficulty ever returning to the mainstream fleet. The Aframax segment is most impacted, encouraging more LR2 product tankers to enter the crude trade. These supply-side dynamics are reinforcing a two-tier market where Ardmore and our fully compliant fleet stand to benefit. Moving to slide 11, where we address demand fundamentals in greater detail.

[Bart Kelleher, President and CFO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

While U.S. tariffs and countermeasures have created uncertainty across the wider macroeconomy, underlying tanker demand fundamentals remain supportive. As shown in the chart on the upper right, refinery margins have been rising. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is set to ratchet up production starting this month. Looking ahead, market projections indicate continued demand growth for oil products to meet global mobility and energy security needs. It's also important to note that global oil consumption has historically been more resilient through economic cycles than other areas of the economy. In addition, dislocation of oil refineries remains an enduring trend. Refining and petrochemical production has been shifting east, which, combined with closures in the west, continues to drive incremental ton miles. Now moving to slide 13 and turning our attention to Ardmore's operating and financial performance. The company continues to build upon its financial strength.

[Bart Kelleher, President and CFO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Once again, the chart on the bottom left highlights our focus on successfully reducing our cash break-even level to $11,500 per day. In fact, it is actually $10,500 per day when excluding Pro Forma CapEx. This has been achieved in an elevated interest rate environment, driven by effective cost control, lower debt levels, and access to revolving credit facilities. As always, Ardmore remains focused on optimizing performance, closely managing costs, and preserving a strong balance sheet. Turning to slide 14 for financial highlights. For the first quarter, we reported EBITDA of $18.5 million. It, as mentioned earlier, earnings per share of $0.14. We continue to frame EBITDA as an important comparable valuation metric against our IFRS reporting peers. Full reconciliation details can be found in the appendix on slide 25. Also, please refer to slide 26 in the appendix for our second quarter guidance numbers.

[Bart Kelleher, President and CFO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Moving to slide 15 for fleet operations. We nimbly executed on some opportunistic chartering trades, including locking in a $2 million time charter in-out spread over 12 months, while also fixing two seasonal time charter outs to cover the summer period at an average rate of $22,000 per day. As you can see from the chart on the right, we're making great progress on our required dry dockings. We're almost done with most of this work and will have minimal dockings from mid-2025 onwards, boosting revenue days and enhancing earnings power. Capital expenditures for the fleet in 2025 are currently forecast at approximately $35 million. This includes $15 million of elective CapEx related to tank coatings and efficiency upgrades. As Gernot already mentioned, we're upgrading tank coatings on all of our chemical vessels to increase cargo versatility and further expand revenue opportunities, with an expected return of conservatively over 20%.

[Bart Kelleher, President and CFO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

As we shared in greater detail at our investor day earlier this year, we continue realizing benefits from our investments in AI and digitalization tools, supporting commercial and operational execution. As the new EU fuel regulations, effectively pass-through voyage expenses, have come into force, they are creating opportunities to further optimize fleet deployment and drive TCE levels. Moving to slide 16, where we highlight the power of our strong operating leverage. To frame this in a simple manner, for every $10,000 per day increase in TCE, we would make an additional $2.30 in EPS. That is a boost of nearly $100 million in free cash flow generation. Our modern, high-quality fleet is well-positioned to take full advantage of this earnings power. With that, I'm happy to hand the call back to Gernot and look forward to answering any questions at the end.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Great. Thank you, Bart. Moving to slide 18, allow me to summarize three key points. Ardmore has a robust balance sheet, a strong operating platform, and a modern, highly efficient fleet, all built in Korea and Japan. Crude markets have shown resilience, and our TCEs have remained significantly above our cash break-even of $11,500 per day. Finally, Ardmore's deliberate and sensible strategic choices have been well-matched to the business cycle and are underpinned by industry-leading corporate governance. Now, before I open up the call to questions, I would like to briefly draw your attention to internal leadership progression at Ardmore that we referenced this morning in our earnings release. For one, we have announced the long-planned and well-deserved retirement of our COO, Mark Cameron, which will be effective January 1st.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Mark has been with Ardmore since its inception in 2010 and has been instrumental in developing our technical management and operations platform, contributing countless strategic achievements for Ardmore. We are grateful for Mark's many years of service and wish him the very best. Following a structured transition process, Mark will be succeeded by Robert Gaynor, currently our SVP Commercial. Robert has been with Ardmore for 10 years in multiple leadership and commercial roles. He previously sailed as Master Mariner on the Ardmore fleet before coming ashore in 2015, and in the years following, completed an executive MBA from Erasmus University in Rotterdam. In his new role, Robert will hold the responsibilities of the existing COO role and the previous CCO role, thereby combining under one leadership umbrella our integrated business activities across chartering, commercial operations, and fleet management.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

We are pleased to announce the completion of our CFO process announced during last year's leadership transition at Ardmore and Bart stepping up as President. Effective July 1st, John Russell, presently Ardmore's Finance Director, will take on the broader responsibility of CFO working closely with Bart. John has served Ardmore for seven years and has been involved with Ardmore's leadership team on all finance matters. He is a chartered accountant and holds multiple degrees in finance. We are pleased that, once again, Ardmore was able to promote from within as we continue to develop talent in-house and build on our strong, dynamic company culture. With that, we now welcome your questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star button followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to cancel your request, please press the star button followed by the number two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment, please, for your first question. Our first question comes from John Chappell from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead.

[John ChappelL, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI]

Thank you. Good afternoon. Gernot or Bart, fleet update question as it relates to some of the announcements you made today. On that $2 million spread, time charter in, time charter out, I'm assuming that's the Matterhorn extending that contract for a year. Are there any other opportunities above and beyond that with the time charter in fleet? I know that the other three expire this summer. Do they have options? As you contemplate exercising potentially those options, do you see other spread opportunities like that?

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Yeah. Hi, John, and thanks for the question. Probably not going to be able to go into a whole level of detail here because some of those are commercially sensitive, but we're constantly in touch with opportunities on both charter in and charter out, as you will have seen also on some of those seasonal charters out. It is a fragmented market where we will hopefully find other opportunities to create interesting spreads by putting together different pieces in creative ways. On the other chartered in ships, currently no options as such, but we've developed a really good and long-standing operating relationship with the head owner, and we'll certainly always try to find a way to continue those relationships.

[John ChappelL, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI]

Thank you. Just to follow up, obviously a lot of uncertainty, as you touched on at the beginning, asset values have been a little bit volatile. I think there's a lot of question marks about not just the macro, but also some of the geopolitical events that have been supportive to the industry over the last three years. In that type of uncertain backdrop, are you seeing more opportunity for fleet expansion or modernization, whether it's through traditional acquisitions or whether it's through other types of time chartering arrangements?

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Certainly something we're always tracking and monitoring, John, and we are connected through a wide range of sources of deal flow with business that's available in the market, but we've also built a good track record on vessel acquisitions and time charters where we have direct exposure to various counterparties. So far, we have felt it was more prudent to hold off because, of course, every transaction needs to be evaluated with appropriate rigor and discipline. There is a correction taking place on asset values, and this is something we're tracking closely, but so far, we haven't felt it was the right time to move ahead.

[John ChappelL, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI]

All right. Thanks, Gernot.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you so much for that question. Again, should you have a question, please press the star button followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you have a question, please press the star button followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. Our second question comes from Omar Nokta from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

[Omar Nokta, Analyst at Jefferies]

Hi, Gernot and Bart. Just a couple of questions for me. Maybe just first on the management changes, just a quick kind of mention of that. Obviously, there's been a lot of movement, and as you mentioned, it seems like a pretty deep bullpen you're working with at Ardmore promoting from within. Just want to get a sense from you if you're anticipating any changes strategically or how the business is run going forward with the updated, say, management setup.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Yeah. Hi, Omar. Thank you for that question. Gives me a chance to just elaborate here a little bit more. With regard to Mark, strong contributor and has been there since the inception of the company in 2010, has been a hugely important contributor to Ardmore's performance and is also really strongly recognized in the industry and somebody who would surely be missed. We have built an incredible amount of talent internally, always giving people a chance to progress and kind of step up and step in. I think that's really part of the Ardmore culture, and it's been kind of part of what you can see throughout the organization. Even though, of course, there are some of those opportunities then for people to progress, I like to think there's also a lot of continuity around Ardmore's strategy, around Ardmore's governance, around our values, and our approach to performance.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

These things might evolve, of course, with what the market determines and where the opportunity lies, but the foundational principles very much remain the same, even though people, of course, step up into different leadership ranks. In a way, the greater sum of things at Ardmore is greater than any individual.

[Omar Nokta, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay. Thank you. Thanks for that. Maybe just more on the market. You mentioned, I think, Bart, you were talking about asset values. I believe it was Bart mentioning the values have come off a bit. I guess there's been a sort of a jolt of optimism in the sector overall with OPEC bringing production back. Clearly, there's a view that that's going to be very supportive to the large crude tankers, but how do you think that filters its way into the MR market and product tankers, I guess, in general?

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Yeah. Look, overall, I think it's really important to remember that even though there has been this uncertainty and volatility in broader markets, we referenced at the start of the call that TCEs find their footing at the levels that we're reporting for the first quarter and guiding for the second quarter, which I believe is positive, if anything, moving against the seasonal trends. OPEC, of course, production increases, there's an impact on crude tankers, but also an impact on refining margins, which you have seen even week on week have jumped again and already at strong levels. Of course, with that, refiners have a stronger incentive to produce, to refine cargoes, and with that, of course, there should be incremental need to transport those cargoes as well.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

That bodes favorably on top of the supply story that we highlighted in the call, but again, oldest fleet in decades and order book at less than a third of prior peaks, and at the same time, the fleet that's aging out is three times the order book. Very compelling in that sense. As far as market opportunities and pricing of assets is concerned, we are tracking sort of a correction in second-hand values, and as I had mentioned earlier, so far, we are monitoring. It is a really fragmented market, a lot of players with a wide range of motivations to sell or to buy, and I think there will always be an opportunity with that. We believe also some of the broader uncertainty that we have registered here at the start of the year is also filtering through in some of the price ideas that are out there. Rightfully.

[Omar Nokta, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay. Very good. Thanks, Gernot.

[Gernot Ruppelt, CEO at Ardmore Shipping Corporation]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you for all the questions. Since there are no further questions at this time, this concludes today's call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Bart Kelleher, President and CFO
• Gernot Ruppelt, CEO

Analysts

• John ChappelL, Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI
• Omar Nokta, Analyst at Jefferies