MBIA Q1 2025 Earnings Report

MBIA EPS Results

• Actual EPS: -$0.16
• Consensus EPS: -$0.07
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.09
• One Year Ago EPS: -$0.52

MBIA Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $14.00 million
• Expected Revenue: $21.00 million
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$7.00 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

MBIA Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2025
• Date: 5/8/2025
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Friday, May 9, 2025
• Conference Call Time: 8:00AM ET

MBIA (NYSE:MBI) Inc. (NYSE: MBI) is a financial services holding company focused on financial guarantee insurance and related activities. Through its subsidiaries, the company has historically provided guarantees that support the timely payment of principal and interest on municipal bonds and other publicly issued debt, helping issuers access capital markets and potentially improve the credit quality of their obligations.

MBIA’s businesses have included public finance and structured finance insurance. Its principal operating subsidiaries have included National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation, which focuses on U.S. public finance obligations, and MBIA Insurance Corporation, which has insured public finance and structured finance transactions. The company has also conducted business involving international public finance and structured finance assets.

MBIA has reduced its exposure to new insurance business and has focused on managing its existing insured portfolio, claims, investment assets and liabilities. The company traces its origins to the Municipal Bond Insurance Association, established in 1973, and became one of the best-known providers of bond insurance in the United States. Its current activities are primarily centered on portfolio management, risk reduction and the resolution of legacy obligations rather than broad expansion of new financial guarantee business.

MBIA Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• MBIA reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $62M in Q1 2025, an improvement from last year’s $86M loss, driven by lower losses in LAE and reduced compensation-related expenses.
• The unresolved Puerto Rico PREPA exposure of over $800M remains a major uncertainty, and MBIA states that resolving this issue is critical before pursuing a sale of its National Public Finance Guarantee unit.
• National Public Finance Guarantee posted statutory net income of $4M in Q1 2025, held $919M in statutory capital, and maintained $1.5B in claims paying resources with a gross par portfolio of $25B and a 27:1 leverage ratio.
• MBIA Insurance Corp achieved statutory net income of $2M in Q1 2025, benefiting from favorable recoveries related to Zohar CDO claims, while holding $88M in statutory capital.
• MBIA Inc.’s book value per share declined further to –$42.22 as of March 31 2025, reflecting ongoing net losses and unrealized losses on investments.

Presentation

[Operator]

Welcome to the MBIA First Quarter 2025 Financial Results Conference Call. I would now like to turn the call over to Greg Diamond, Managing Director of Investor and Media Relations at MBIA. Please go ahead, sir.

[Greg Diamond, Managing Director of Investor and Media Relations at MBIA]

Thank you, Chelsea. Yes, welcome to MBIA's Conference Call for our First Quarter 2025 Financial Results. After the market closed yesterday, we issued and posted several items on our websites, including our financial results, 10-Q, quarterly operating supplement, and statutory statements for both MBIA Insurance Corporation and National Public Finance Guarantee Corporation. We also posted updates to the listings of our insurance companies' insured portfolios. Regarding today's call, please note that anything said on the call is qualified by the information provided in the company's 10-K, 10-Q, and other SEC filings, as our company's definitive disclosures are incorporated in those documents. We urge investors to read our 10-K and 10-Q as they contain our most current disclosures about the company and its financial and operating results. Those documents also contain information that may not be addressed on today's call.

[Greg Diamond, Managing Director of Investor and Media Relations at MBIA]

The definitions and reconciliations of the non-GAAP terms included in our remarks today are also included in our 10-K and 10-Q, as well as our financial results report and our quarterly operating supplement. The recorded replay of today's call will become available on the MBIA website at approximately two hours after the end of this call. Now for our Safe Harbor Disclosure Statement. Our remarks on today's conference call may contain forward-looking statements. Important factors such as general market conditions and the competitive environment could cause our actual results to differ materially from the projected results referenced in our forward-looking statements. Risk factors are detailed in our 10-K and 10-Q, which are available on our website at mbia.com. The company cautions not to place undue reliance on any such forward-looking statements.

[Greg Diamond, Managing Director of Investor and Media Relations at MBIA]

The company also undertakes no obligation to publicly correct or update any forward-looking statement if it later becomes aware that such statement is no longer accurate. For our call today, Bill Fallon and Joe Schachinger will provide introductory comments, and then a question-and-answer session will follow. Now, here is Bill Fallon.

[Bill Fallon, CEO at MBIA]

Thanks, Greg. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for being with us today. Our first quarter 2025 financial results had a lower net loss than the comparable period for 2024. Compared to 2024, our first quarter 2025 financial results benefited from favorable variances on revenues of consolidated VIEs and losses in LAE, as well as lower operating expenses, primarily due to reduced compensation-related expense. Our priority continues to be resolving Nationals' PREPA exposure, with the path and timing of that resolution remaining largely uncertain. The Title III Court has lifted stays on selected litigation matters related to PREPA, which should facilitate its resolution. Given the uncertainty associated with the possible outcomes for Nationals' PREPA bankruptcy claim, which is in excess of $800 million, we continue to believe that the process to sell the company at a maximized shareholder value will likely require substantially reducing the uncertainty regarding PREPA.

[Bill Fallon, CEO at MBIA]

Regarding the balance of Nationals' insured portfolio, those credits have continued to perform generally consistent with our expectations. The gross par amount outstanding for Nationals' insured portfolio has declined by approximately $500 million from year-end 2024 to about $25 billion at March 31, 2025. Nationals' leverage ratio of gross par to statutory capital was 27 to 1 at the end of the first quarter. As of March 31, 2025, Nationals had total claims-paying resources of $1.5 billion and statutory capital and surplus in excess of $900 million. Now, Joe will provide additional comments about our financial results.

[Joe Schachinger, EVP and CFO at MBIA]

Thank you, Bill, and good morning, all. I will begin with a review of our first quarter 2025 GAAP and non-GAAP results, and then provide an overview of our statutory results. The company reported a consolidated GAAP net loss of $62 million, or a -$1.28 per share for the first quarter of 2025, compared with a consolidated GAAP net loss of $86 million, or a -$1.84 per share for the first quarter of 2024. The lower GAAP net loss this quarter was driven by several items. First was a favorable change in revenues of consolidated variable interest entities at MBIA Insurance Corp. In the first quarter of 2024, we purchased insured debt of a consolidated VIE as part of our de-risking efforts, which resulted in a net loss in earnings, most of which was reclassified from accumulated other comprehensive income.

[Joe Schachinger, EVP and CFO at MBIA]

In the first quarter of 2025, we did not have any comparable activity. We also reported a favorable change in losses in LAE in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the first quarter of 2024. Lower losses in LAE in the current quarter were primarily driven by lower losses at Nationals on its PREPA exposure, partially offset by higher losses at MBIA Insurance Corp on its first lien RMBS exposure. The higher losses at MBIA Insurance Corp were primarily driven by the impact of a decrease in interest rates used to discount its GAAP loss reserves. In addition, consolidated operating expenses are lower in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to lower compensation-related costs.

[Joe Schachinger, EVP and CFO at MBIA]

Partially offsetting these positive variances were unfavorable variances related to foreign exchange losses at MBIA Insurance Corp and at our corporate segment due to a weakening of the U.S. dollar during the quarter, and to a lesser extent, fair value net losses on investments this quarter compared with fair value net gains in the first quarter of 2024. The company's adjusted net loss, a non-GAAP measure, was $8 million, or a -$0.16 per share for the first quarter of 2025, compared with an adjusted net loss of $24 million, or a -$0.52 per share for the first quarter of 2024. The favorable change was primarily due to the lower losses in LAE at Nationals. During the quarter, MBIA's book value per share decreased $1.23 to a -$42.22 per share as of March 31, 2025, from a n-$40.99 per share as of December 31, 2024.

[Joe Schachinger, EVP and CFO at MBIA]

This decrease was primarily due to our consolidated net loss for the first quarter of 2025, partially offset by a decrease in unrealized losses on investments recorded in accumulated other comprehensive income. Included in MBIA Inc.'s book value as of March 31, 2025, is MBIA Insurance Corp's negative book value of $50.78 per share versus a -$49.48 per share as of December 31, 2024. I will now spend a few minutes on our corporate segment balance sheet. The corporate segment, which primarily comprises the activities of the holding company, MBIA Inc., had total assets of approximately $685 million as of March 31, 2025. Within this total are the following material assets. Unencumbered cash and liquid assets held by MBIA Inc. totaled $378 million, reflecting a slight decrease compared with $380 million as of December 31, 2024.

[Joe Schachinger, EVP and CFO at MBIA]

In addition to the unencumbered cash and liquid assets, the corporate segment's assets included approximately $212 million of assets at market value pledged to guaranteed investment agreement contract holders, which fully collateralized those contracts. Now, I'll turn to the insurance company's statutory results. Nationals reported statutory net income of $4 million for the first quarter of 2025, compared with a statutory net loss of $11 million for the first quarter of 2024. The positive variance reflects lower losses in LAE, primarily related to Nationals' PREPA exposure, partially offset by lower net investment gains compared to the first quarter of 2024. Nationals' statutory capital as of March 31, 2025, was $919 million, up $7 million compared with December 31, 2024. Claims-paying resources were $1.5 billion, consistent with December 31, 2024. Now, I'll turn to MBIA Insurance Corp.

[Joe Schachinger, EVP and CFO at MBIA]

MBIA Insurance Corp reported statutory net income of $2 million for the first quarter of 2025, compared with a statutory net loss of $35 million for the first quarter of 2024. The favorable variance was primarily due to lower losses in LAE. The losses in LAE benefit in the current quarter was driven by favorable adjustments to recoveries of paid claims associated with the Zohar CDOs, while losses in LAE in the first quarter of 2024 were primarily driven by unfavorable adjustments to Zohar-related recoveries and, to a lesser extent, an increase in reserves on first lien RMBS exposures. As of March 31, 2025, the statutory capital of MBIA Insurance Corp was $88 million, consistent with year-end 2024. Claims-paying resources totaled $349 million at March 31, 2025, compared with $356 million at December 31, 2024.MBIA Insurance Corp's insured gross par outstanding was $2.3 billion as of March 31, 2025, consistent with year-end 2024. We will now turn the call over to the operator to begin the question-and-answer session.

[Operator]

Thank you. If you have a question at this time, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to remove yourself from the queue, press star two. We ask that when posing your question, you please pick up your handset to allow optimal sound quality. Once again, that is star one to ask a question. Our first question will come from John Staley with Staley Capital Advisors. Please go ahead.

[John Staley, President at Staley Capital Advisers]

Bill, I think I missed the last call, but it's nice to be back on this one. This whole PREPA thing, I mean, it's so clearly a political process. There are some recent articles written about the absolute obstructionist approach of the oversight committee, suggesting the Trump administration think about just removing it, that it's run its course. That's then followed by a blackout on the island, which I don't feel bad about what it does to the people. I wouldn't want to live there, but it certainly underscores the desperate need to get this resolved and get the PREPA whole grid back functional. With a Republican head of the island, what are you doing politically to get the Trump administration's focus who clearly wants to do something positive for the citizens of Puerto Rico, given the nonsense he had to put up post-Madison Square Garden in the campaign?

[John Staley, President at Staley Capital Advisers]

What are you doing proactively, politically, to get this whole thing resolved as opposed to this nonsense that's going on with the oversight committee when, if you didn't have that committee, you could negotiate this and get it over with? I'm very puzzled why politically, with the Republican leadership in Puerto Rico, the Republican leadership in Congress, and the Republican leadership in the White House, this isn't resolved. Enlighten me. I don't get it.

[Bill Fallon, CEO at MBIA]

Yeah, John, good morning. I'm not sure I can necessarily enlighten you, but you've touched on a lot of aspects, and there are many parts to the PREPA situation, as you've just highlighted. I do think, in terms of Governor González, that fixing PREPA, whatever that might mean, is at the top of her priority list. It will take some time. We obviously have conversations in D.C., as do other people. We also think that finally the court schedule will move along some of the key litigation issues, which should help, we think, with the perspective of the oversight board. There are a lot of parties, as you mentioned. They all do need to come together. Hopefully, it is moving towards that end.We've all lived through what is now, depending on how you want to mark the beginning of this, probably at least an eight-year process, if not longer. It feels as though all the right focus is coming to PREPA, and it's the parties that you just mentioned. We are becoming a little bit more optimistic that we're moving into perhaps a different phase here at this time.

[John Staley, President at Staley Capital Advisers]

Thank you, Bill. You have no—you said all the other credits are performing. So you're not staring at, with national concerns, a further write-off?

[Bill Fallon, CEO at MBIA]

No, as we said, our portfolio is performing within our expectations. So it's PREPA that is getting all the attention.

[John Staley, President at Staley Capital Advisers]

All right. It certainly has my attention. Thank you, Bill, very much.

[Bill Fallon, CEO at MBIA]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Once again, that is star one to ask a question. All right. At this time, we have no further questions. I would like to turn the call back over to Greg Diamond for any additional or closing remarks.

[Greg Diamond, Managing Director of Investor and Media Relations at MBIA]

Thank you, Chelsea. Thank you to all of you listening to our call today. Please contact us directly if you have additional questions. We also recommend that you visit our website at mbia.com for additional information about our company. Thank you for your interest in MBIA. Good day and goodbye.

[Operator]

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's program, and we appreciate your participation. You may disconnect at any time.

Participants

Executives

• Joe Schachinger, EVP and CFO
• Bill Fallon, CEO
• Greg Diamond, Managing Director of Investor and Media Relations

Analysts

• John Staley, President at Staley Capital Advisers