Vista Energy Q4 2025 Earnings Report

Vista Energy EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.49
• Consensus EPS: $1.12
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$0.63
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Vista Energy Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $719.06 million
• Expected Revenue: $679.81 million
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$39.26 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Vista Energy Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2025
• Date: 2/25/2026
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, February 26, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 9:00AM ET

Vista Energy (NYSE:VIST) (NYSE: VIST) is an independent energy company focused on the exploration, development and production of oil and natural gas resources in Mexico. The company operates through two primary segments: upstream exploration and production, and midstream and specialist services. By integrating both segments, Vista Energy seeks to capture value across the energy value chain, from field operations to the delivery of processed gas to industrial and power-generation customers.

In its upstream segment, Vista Energy holds interests in onshore gas fields in northeastern Mexico and shallow-water properties in the Bay of Campeche. These assets encompass conventional reservoirs that supply natural gas to domestic markets. The midstream and specialist services division provides gas gathering, treatment, processing and transportation solutions, leveraging a network of pipelines, compression facilities and service contracts to optimize throughput and reliability for its industrial clients.

Headquartered in Mexico City, Vista Energy was established in 2017 and completed its initial public offering on the New York Stock Exchange in February 2023 under the ticker VIST. The company is backed by experienced energy investors and led by a management team with deep expertise in Latin American oil and gas operations. With a sole geographic focus on Mexico, Vista Energy aims to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the region’s evolving energy sector.

Vista Energy Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Q4 production reached 135,000 BOEs/day (up 59% YoY, 7% QoQ) and 1P reserves increased 57% to 588 million BOEs, with a 605% reserve replacement ratio, reflecting both organic growth and the La Amarga Chica acquisition.
• Positive Sentiment: Operational cost gains drove lifting costs to $4.1/BOE in Q4 and DNC costs to $12.1M per normalized well in H2 2025, with targets of ~$11.7M in 2026 and $11.3M in 2027, supporting margin improvement.
• Positive Sentiment: Financial performance was strong — Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $444M, full-year adjusted EBITDA of $1.6B, FY EPS of $7, positive FCF in H2 and 2026 FCF guidance of $150–200M, while pro forma net leverage remained conservative at 1.5x.
• Positive Sentiment: M&A is accelerating scale — the company completed a 50% stake in La Amarga Chica and signed to acquire Equinor’s Vaca Muerta assets (Bandurria Sur/Bajo del Toro), which add ~22,000 bbl/d and ~244 net wells, subject to closing/antitrust.
• Negative Sentiment: Price sensitivity remains — Q4 realized oil price was $58.9/bbl (down 12% YoY, 9% QoQ), which lowered sequential revenues and EBITDA, and 2026 guidance assumes Brent at $65/bbl, leaving results exposed to oil price shifts.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Vista's fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings webcast conference call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You'll hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Alejandro Cherñacov, Vista Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.

[Alejandro Cherñacov, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer at Vista Energy]

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. We are happy to welcome you to Vista's fourth quarter and full year 2025 results conference call. I am here with Miguel Galuccio, Vista's Chairman and CEO, Pablo Vera Pinto, Vista's CFO, Juan Garoby, Vista's CTO, and Matias Weissel, Vista's COO. Before we begin, I would like to draw your attention to our cautionary statement on slide two. Please be advised that our remarks today, including the answers to your questions, may include forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to be materially different from the expectations contemplated by these remarks. Our financial figures are stated in US dollars and in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS. However, during this conference call, we may discuss certain non-IFRS financial measures, such as adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net income.

[Alejandro Cherñacov, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer at Vista Energy]

Reconciliations of these measures with the closest IFRS measure can be found in the earnings release that we issued yesterday. Please check our website for further information. Our company is a sociedad anónima bursátil de capital variable, organized under the laws of Mexico, registered in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and the New York Stock Exchange. Our tickers are VISTA in the Bolsa Mexicana de Valores and VIST in the New York Stock Exchange. I will now turn the call over to Miguel.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Thanks, Ale. Good morning, everyone. Welcome to this earnings call. 2025 was a year of many achievements for Vista, marked by the substantial value creation for our shareholders through growth in our core development, significant well cost saving, and accretive M&A. The acquisition of 50% stake in La Amarga Chica marked a major milestone in our successful growth journey, turning Vista into the largest independent oil producer of Argentina. We also held our third Investor Day, during which we unveiled an updated strategic plan targeting to produce more than 200,000 BOEs per day by end of the decade. Today, we will be going over our Q4 results and a summary of the highlights of the full year.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

During the fourth quarter of 2025, we continued to deliver robust production growth on the back of new well tie-ins and a strong productivity in Bajada del Palo Este, Aguada Federal, and La Amarga Chica. Total production was 135,000 BOEs per day, an increase of 59% year-over-year and 7% quarter-over-quarter. Oil production was 118,000 barrels per day, an interannual increase of 61% and 8% sequentially. Total revenues during the quarter were $689 million, 46% above the same quarter of the last year and 2% below the previous quarter, driven by lower oil prices. Lifting cost was $4.1 per BOE, 20% below year-over-year and 8% below vis-a-vis Q3.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Capital expenditure was $355 million, driven by new well activity during the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $444 million, an interannual increase of 62%. Net income was $86 million, leading to earnings per share of $0.8 during the quarter. Free cash flow was $76 million, driven by a strong cash flow of operation. Finally, our net leverage ratio at year-end was 1.5x on a pro forma basis, flat quarter-on-quarter. Total production during Q4 was 135.4 thousand BOEs per day.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

As in the previous quarter, we recorded a solid 7% growth on a sequential basis, driven by robust well productivity and 60 net tie-ins during the quarter, nine in Bajada del Palo Este, three in Bajada del Palo Este, and four corresponding to our 50% share in La Amarga Chica. On an interannual basis, production growth was 59%, reflecting our larger scale after the acquisition of La Amarga Chica, combined with organic growth. Oil production was 118.3 thousand barrels per day, 8% above Q3 and 61% higher year-over-year. Gas production increased 45% on an interannual basis. In Q4 2025, total revenues were $689 million, 46% higher than the previous year, driven by a robust increase in oil production, which more than offset lower oil prices.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Oil exports doubled year-over-year, reaching 7.1 million barrels in Q4 2025, representing 64% of our total sales volume. Realized oil price was $58.9 per barrel on average, down 12% on interannual basis and 9% on a sequential basis, in both cases, driven by lower oil prices. During Q4, again, we sold 100% of oil volumes at export parity prices, both domestically and internationally. In Q4, lifting cost was $4.1 per BOE, 12% below the same quarter of last year and 8% below the previous quarter, reflecting our low-cost asset base and fixed cost dilution as we continue to gain scale. Selling expenses were $4.2 per BOE, down 48% on interannual basis, driven by the elimination of oil tracking as of the end of Q1.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Adjusted EBITDA during the quarter was $444 million, 62% higher interannually, mainly driven by the consolidation of 50% working interest in La Amarga Chica and organic production growth in our core development hub, which more than offset lower oil prices. On a sequential basis, Adjusted EBITDA declined 6%, as lower oil and natural gas prices offset production growth. Adjusted EBITDA margin was 64%, up eight percentage points compared to the same quarter of last year, as the decrease in selling expenses offset lower oil prices. Similarly, netback was $35.6 per BOE, up 2% on an interannual basis. During Q4 2025, cash flow from operating activities was very robust at $435 million, even after income tax payment of $32 million and an increase in working capital of $16 million.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Cash flow used in investing activities was $360 million, reflecting accrued CapEx of $355 million and a decrease in CapEx-relating working capital of $16 million. Free cash flow was positive at $76 million during the quarter, and $47 million during the second semester. We achieved our positive free cash flow guidance for the second half of 2025. Cash flow from financing activities was $143 million, driven by proceeds from borrowings for $680 million, partially offset by the repayment of borrowings for $368 million, an interest payment of $75 million. Our position remains very strong, standing at $538 million at year-end.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Our net leverage ratio on a pro forma basis, reflecting the Petronas Argentina transaction, stood at 1.5x adjusted EBITDA, flat vis-a-vis the previous quarter. The fourth quarter of 2025 marks the completion of an outstanding year at Vista. These are some of our key achievements. Combining the successful de-risk of the structural 4 area in Bajada del Palo Este with the acquisition of a 50% working interest in La Amarga Chica, we enlarged our well inventory to more than 1,600 wells. 1P reserve increased by 57% year-over-year to 588 million BOEs, with strong additions both on the organic and inorganic side, leading to a reserve replacement ratio of 605%. Our organic reserves replacement ratio stood at 260%.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

We tie in 74 wells during the year, up from 50 in 2024, reflecting the CapEx acceleration in our strong portfolio of a short cycle, high return wells in the oil window of Vaca Muerta. This boost total production to over 115,000 barrels of oil per day, 66% above 2024. Our solid operational performance was also reflected by the cost reduction, with 3% lifting cost savings and 15% DNC cost savings compared to 2024. Operational excellence remains one of our top priorities. In 2025, our total recordable incident rate remained below one for the sixth consecutive year. By investing mildly in the carbonization process in our facilities, we reduced the Scope one and two greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 23% to 6.8 kilos of CO2 equivalent per BOE. This places Vista's operation within the first decile at the global level.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

We continue to invest in nature-based solutions in Argentina to develop our own carbon credits. We have made progress in 2025 to ensure that in 2026, we will have enough credit to balance the Scope one and two emissions of our operated oil and gas production. Finally, in 2025, we continued delivering a strong financial performance. adjusted EBITDA grew 46% compared to the previous year, reaching $1.6 billion. Earnings per share amounted to $7, and ROC was 29%. Finally, we executed a share buyback program of $50 million, buying 1.2 million shares at an average price of $41.2 per share, a significant discount relative to current prices. Our 2025 performance leaves us well poised to continue our growth trajectory in 2026.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Total production at 115,000 BOEs per day was about the 112-114 guidance rate. Production during the second semester was also about guidance, 131,000 BOEs per day, compared to the guidance of 125,000-128,000. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.6 billion and stood at the top end of the range we guided at mid-year. We also met the adjusted EBITDA guidance for the second semester, recording $0.92 billion or an equivalent of $1.83 billion on annualized basis. Lifting costs at $4.4 per BOE, mark another delivery with respect of our $4.5 guidance.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

We were also very efficient with the use of the capital by delivering 74 well tie-ins with $1.3 billion of CapEx. We outperformed the original guidance of 59 tie-ins with $1.2 billion. The delivery of 2025 full year results, in particular, the momentum achieved in the fourth quarter, leave us very well placed to deliver on 2026 guidance. As a reminder, this guidance includes 140,000 BOEs per day of total production, reflecting 80-90 well tie-ins, $1.5 billion-$1.6 billion of CapEx, and $1.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA, assuming Brent at $65 per barrel on average. Early this month, we announced an agreement to acquire Equinor's asset in Vaca Muerta.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

This constitutes a highly accretive transaction for our shareholders, as reflected by the implied EV to EBITDA and EV per flowing barrels metrics compared to Vista market value. The acquired asset will enhance our portfolio by adding more than 27,000 net acreage, which currently produce around 22,000 barrel oil per day and generate positive free cash flow. Importantly, the blocks have production growth potential as they add 244 net wells to our drilling inventory. As shown on the map, the new blocks are next to our existing blocks, which create many opportunities for synergies in the subsurface characterization, surface facilities, mixing capacity, crews, scheduling, and oil field services contracting. As disclosed in our filings, the agreement is subject to two conditions present. The first one was already achieved. Last week, we were informed that Shell has waived its right of first refusal over Bandurria Sur.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Regarding the second one, we have already filed the relevant documents with the Chilean Antitrust Authority on February 11. Based on the timeline of this process, we expect the transaction to close around mid-May. To conclude this call and before we move to Q&A, I will make some closing remarks. Q4 marked the completion of a transformational year for the company, during which we gained significant scale and delivered on an annual guidance across all key metrics. During 2025, we record robust operation performance, increasing total production, 1P reserve, and expanding well inventory. We achieved material lifting costs and selling cost savings that improve our margin, offsetting lower oil prices. We also captured significant DNC cost reductions through the commercial, supply chain, and technological innovation.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

This strong operational performance, combined with the acquisition of 50% working interest in La Amarga Chica, led to superior profitable growth during the year, materially expanding adjusted EBITDA and earnings per share. More recently, we continue to demonstrate our unique ability to execute a creative M&A, gaining further scale, enhancing portfolio debt, and long-term cash flow generation through the acquisition of participation in Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro, two premium assets in Vaca Muerta. Before we move to Q&A, I would like to express my gratitude to our staff for having delivered another remarkable year for our company. I am also thankful to our shareholders for their continued support. Operator, we can now move to Q&A.

[Operator]

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. One moment for our first question. Our first question will come from the line of Walter Chiaversio from Santander. Your line is open.

[Walter Chiaversio, Head of Equity Research at Santander]

yes, hello. Can you hear me?

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Yes, we hear you well, Walter.

[Walter Chiaversio, Head of Equity Research at Santander]

Perfect. Okay. Thank you for taking my question, and congratulations for such moving year for the company. My question is regarding the acquisition of Bandurria Sur. What are the next steps in terms of, especially in terms of CapEx reallocation, if there is any? I see that the numbers of wells for the years remain the same. If you think that there will be some CapEx reallocation. What is the situation regarding facilities with the new situation of the company, and acquisition of all the blocks in 2025? Thank you.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Thank you, Walter, for your question. The main milestones, starting with your first part of the question, the next step, the main milestone, which was shares rights of refusal, was already clear. We are now go through the Chilean antitrust process that was filed on February 11, shortly with Equinor. The relevant documents are already in the Fiscalía Nacional Económica. Based on all that presence, we believe we should be closing during Q2. Related to capital allocation and the Equinor acquisition, going to the Equinor deal, we are currently focused on the process of closing the deal, and it's for us, a bit premature to comment anything related to the new plan.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

In general principles that we assume, assuming $65 Brent, the CapEx plan for the existing asset is not affected by the new asset. That mean we will continue having the plan as we have, and the acquisition that we have done will be self-funded by the EBITDA and CapEx generation of the asset that we have acquired. You asked also another question related to the facilities. We don't see any issues with the facilities in the acquisition of Bandurria Sur. We have plenty of facilities there. They have a spare capacity, also we have a spare capacity. Different will be for the development of Bajada del Toro, where it's very close to one of our asset there, Aguila Mora, but that will require new facilities.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

As far as we know, Duplicar Norte is ongoing. One option that we have is to tap into that, to that pipeline, and that, is being, I think is being led by other companies, Trupetrol, CVX, and Tecpetrol. That could be an option, but that will not happen in the next year, nor even in the next few years.

[Walter Chiaversio, Head of Equity Research at Santander]

Okay, perfect. Thank you very much, Miguel.

[Operator]

Thank you for that question. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Bruno Montanari from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

[Bruno Montanari, Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Good morning, Miguel, Ale, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. My question is also about capital allocation, but more on a broad perspective. The company is generating cash, and we believe that the cash generation should increase substantially in 2026 and beyond. Can you help us how to think about options such as accelerating drilling activity in case oil prices increase, or pursuing acquisitions around your existing acreage and/or distributing cash back to shareholders? How do you think about using that incremental cash that will be generated in the coming years? Thank you very much.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Thank you for your question. With the actual operation is running with between four and five rigs, from now to 2028, and we have an inventory life of 15 years. We think that we are close to the optimum activity level relative to the size of the assets that we have. If we see the oil price go above our assumptions in our plan, you could see that we add some wells to the plan, but wouldn't expect that we will have anything that is completely material change compared what we have in the plan today toward 2028. Most of the cash that we will generate will be allocated through our capital allocation framework that we present in Investor Day. That is buyback and dividends, M&As, and debt reduction. How we are going to split between the 3?

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

I mean, we would like to maintain that flexibility based on the options that we have at the moment. This is basically what we plan to do with the cash. Thanks for your question, Bruno.

[Bruno Montanari, Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you.

[Operator]

One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Alejandro Demichelis from Jefferies. Your line is open.

[Alejandro Demichelis, Managing Director of LatAm Equity Research at Jefferies]

Yes, good morning. Thank you very much for taking my question. Miguel, you mentioned the very sharp decrease in drilling and completion cost that you have achieved, and that has been great. Could you please kind of comment, where do you see kind of drilling completion costs right now? Where do you think that those could end up, say, over the next few quarters? Also, are you seeing also similar kind of decreases in your non-operated acreage?

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Thank you, Ale, for your question. Yes, one of the things and one of the initiatives that we are very proud of, is the reduction of DNC costs, where we are putting low effort and low innovation. We made very good progress during the second semester. We fully implemented the use of bulk frac sand, as well as our property frack real-time monitoring tool, Xtrema Completion Shop. We talk about that tool a bit during our Investor Day. On the contractual side, we renegotiate our contract with our measure provider and the bundle, the drilling services. All that led to an important saving. In all, this initiative led to a DNC cost of $12.1 million per well in the second half of 2025 in Bajada del Palo Este.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

This take in consideration, normalized well of 2,800 m with 47 frac stages. We are currently working on other cost reduction projects. That week, we start operating, the sand washing plant that we moved from Bajada del Palo Este, sort from our new mine in basin. This new mine is 100 km from our operation, so it's probably the closest one to any operation in Vaca Muerta today. With that, we plan to save some logistic costs for the entire core development hub. We are also working on the bundling of completion services. We are testing new pump technology that can replace diesel for natural gas, and also we are testing new casing design that reduces cost. This project will drive 2026 and 2027 well cost savings.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

We are on track to deliver 11.7 per well this year and 11.3 in 2027. My personal opinion, that we can go farther down on that target if all this come into place.

[Alejandro Demichelis, Managing Director of LatAm Equity Research at Jefferies]

That's clear. Thank you.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Yeah, you're welcome.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from line of Andres Cardona from Citi. Your line is open.

[Andres Cardona, Director of LatAm Equity Research at Citi]

Good morning, Miguel and team. Congratulations on the good set of results. My question has to do with the recent inclusion of the upstream business to the RIGI, and how it could change the development plan of the cluster of Bajada del Toro and Aguila Mora. Thank you.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Thank you, Andres, for the question. First, probably to put that question in context, I will talk a bit about the RIGI. The new RIGI scheme consists of incorporating basically upstream projects during the lay bases, upstream were not part of the scope of the RIGI. In our view, this is a very positive change in regulation, and create conditions to accelerate investment and grow on the basin. Under the terms outlined by the decree, there is a minimum investment commitment of $600 million, of which 40% need to be spent on the first two years. Also, there is a ratio between cash from operation and total CapEx.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

The benefit that the rig bring includes accelerated amortization, a decrease in corporate tax from 35%-25%, zero export taxes after the 3rd year, and being able to keep partially export proceed abroad, also after the 30 years. We are analyzing the scheme in detail based on our preliminary analysis, we believe that that could be applicable to some of our development block, as you mentioned, one, Ipanure Norte, the other one could be Aguila Mora, and eventually also can be applied to Bajo del Toro. Very, very good initiative from the government. Very, very, very welcome by us and by the industry.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from line of Milene Carvalho from JP Morgan. Your line is open.

[Milene Carvalho, Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan]

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for the opportunity. After all those questions on the strategic deals, I would like to go back a little bit on the operational side. This quarter, you reported record low lifting costs. Can you explain a little bit further what were the efficiency measures that have been supporting results besides all the cost dilutions with the production growth? Again, you're very well positioned for the guidance in 2026, but what can we expect as trend for the coming quarters? Thank you.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Hi, Milene, thanks for your question, and thanks for being back to operation. During Q4, we captured some savings related to well services. As in previous quarter, we continue to capture savings as we increase production, which dilutes fixed costs, and we have seen that effect for many years since we run the operation in Vista. This led to a lifting cost of $4.1, as you pointed out, during the quarter. In my view, that number, based on what I said before, is an exceptional number. For 2026, our plan shows a lifting cost that will continue with the trend of basically reducing. We guide 2026 for a lifting cost of $4.4, that is 2% below 2026.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

In Q1, we see lifting costs, that probably we expect the lifting cost will probably go sequentially upward, which is typically what happened at the start of the year, with some costs moving from Q4 last year to Q1 this year. Also, usually in the first quarter, we have some one-off maintenance projects that are allocated to lifting costs. What you should expect is the $4.4 that we have guide, that is 2% below 2026.

[Nicolas Barros, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Perfect. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes line, Bruno Amorim from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

[Bruno Amorim, VP of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Thank you. Good morning, everybody. My question is a follow-up on the 2026 guidance, which you have reconfirmed. Can you provide us with your expectations for the evolution during the year for production, EBITDA, and free cash flow, please? Thank you so much.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Thanks, Bruno. Good question, and hope you're doing well. The 2026 plan included pickup in the NC activity with this 80-90 tie-ins during the year. We plan 20-22 well in tie-in during the Q1, of which 10 were put on production in January, with very good productivity reading so far. This will lead. It will lead to production rate of 132,000 barrels of oil per day in February. We are all placed for March, and estimated a very good precast surprise, surpassing the 140,000 barrels per day for March. We believe in all, Q1 will be flattish or slightly below Q4, but with a very good momentum entering Q2.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

In Q2, we expect a substantial sequential growth, then relatively flat also, again, in Q3, and another very nice and good step in Q4. We reiterate our guidance of 140,000 barrels per day for 2026, and of course, this does not include, the Equinor acquisition that will come into place later on when it's closed. In term of EBITDA, we have reiterated our wide and $1.9 billion of adjusted EBITDA for 2026. As a reminder, this also excludes the effect of a Equinor transaction. Q1, you should expect that will be flattish or maybe slightly lower than Q4 on adjusted EBITDA.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Should increase that steadily in the coming quarter, and we expect to reach an annualized run rate of around $2 billion in, or $2 billion in Q4, assuming, of course, a Brent of 65. In term of free cash flow, free cash flow turned positive in line with the strategic plan of 2026. This new phase of the company combines, as we mentioned in Investor Day, grow on free cash flow generation. In 2026, total free cash flow will be around $150 million-$200 million, a $65 Brent. Always, I mean, we should expect that free cash flow could be affected by working capital variation, tax payment, and come negative impact in some quarter.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Also, you should expect a negative free cash flow in Q1, turn it into positive in Q2 and onward. That give you, maybe a quarterly picture of what we think will happen in 2026.

[Bruno Amorim, VP of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs]

Thank you.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

You're welcome.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Next question, comes line of Daniel Guardiola from BTG Pactual. Your line is open.

[Daniel Guardiola, Executive Director of Equity Research at BTG Pactual]

Hi, good morning, Miguel and team, and thank you for our presentation. My question is on the acquisition of the assets of Equinor in Argentina. I wanted to know, Miguel, if you could provide us more color on the type curves and productivity you're seeing in Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro. Also during the presentation, you mentioned that there is material upside potential in Bajo del Toro. It'd be great to hear, if you could share with us, what is the potential growth opportunity that you're seeing in both assets?

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Okay. Yeah. Thank you, Daniel, for the question. Maybe starting with the first part. Well, tight curve, I think, for Bandurria Sur, very similar to the ones that we have presented of our asset. It's a neighbor asset within us. We evaluated that we don't expect anything different. On Bajo del Toro, you should wait for us because it's probably too early to comment on that. Then related to the second part of your question, based on the information that we have and the analysis that we have done so far, and this is a very preliminary view, our stake of and our stake of this assets is currently 22,000 barrel oil per day.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

We think we can double that by 2030, driven by the growth in Bajada del Toro once we move Bajada del Toro to full development plan. We will probably see a couple of years with a small growth and free cash flow generation, followed by the growth of Bajada del Toro. As our working pack capital interest in Bandurria Sur, we produce approximately 19,000 barrels of oil per day in Q4, an increase to 20,000 in January. Based on the inventory site, 106 wells are allocated to our working interest. The field can continue producing at the current rates until probably 2030. Also, in Bandurria Sur, we see some growth potential.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

In Bajada del Toro, today, they are producing around 2,000 barrel per day, and that is pretty much the same that we saw in January, at our working interest. This block for us present significant upside based on the inventory, and we're still analyzing a scenario to go to full development. That will happen during the next three years. Based on the question that we have before, also we will have to think about infrastructure, evacuation infrastructure there.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Kevin MacCurdy from Pickering Energy Partners. Your line is open.

[Kevin MacCurdy, Managing Director of Equity Research at Pickering Energy Partners]

Hello, and good morning. We've noticed a meaningful progress in the country backdrop, along with increased attention on Argentina and the basin overall. Is Vista seeing an expansion in oil field service vendors or equipment entering the country? If so, would you expect this to translate into further improvement in drilling and completion costs?

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Hi, Kevin. Thank you. Very good question. Yeah, the short answer is yes. We are seeing a lot of interest from service companies to come down to Argentina based on the increase of activities, as you mentioned, also based on the normalization of the macro and the ability to have more cross-border freedom in terms of repatriating dividends and proceeds. I will say that is interest. Now, one thing that we are seeing is most of the companies that are today in the country are adding capacity. Also, that is helping today in, as you saw in the presentation, on the reduction of the DNC costs.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Also, we continue evolving in term of innovation and practices are changing. We are a clear example of that, where you can see, for example, on the completion side, a lot of integration between sand, delivering the sand, the logistic, work some project, and now, probably demanding the completion services to have better numbers and better rates on services. There are many we have seen or we have inquired from many service companies that are today working in the Permian, looking in what they can do in Argentina. Hope I-

[Kevin MacCurdy, Managing Director of Equity Research at Pickering Energy Partners]

Thank you, Miguel. I look forward to seeing you at our BofA conference in a few weeks.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Super looking forward, Nicholas, Kevin.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Nicolas Barros from Bank of America. Your line is open.

[Nicolas Barros, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America]

Hello, good morning. Just one question here. We saw that your trading arm started operations this quarter, right? Just interested to see if you could provide more color on VASA, right, and your expectations on how it can help you to unlock more value in the company. Thank you.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Thank you, Nicholas. Yes, that was a great initiative. I visited them a few weeks ago. The creation of VASA is part of our export-oriented strategy. Oil export have increased significantly on the past years. During 2025, we exported 22 million barrel of oil. That is an increase of 110 point service over 2024. That generate $1.4 billion of export revenues. According when you look at our plans, we plan to double that in 2028. VASA is a fully owned subsidiary. The rationale behind moving into the trading business is to improve our market reach.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Higher volume mean that we need to develop more clients in different markets, and we believe that selling cargoes on deliver basis will allow us to be more competitive. It's very preliminary to comment on margin. We believe it will not be very material to the results of the entire company. Having our oil trading units adds flexibility to our short-term hedging program, allowing us to hedge oil sales on short-term basis, and basically to manage the cash flow of the on quarterly basis. We are not planning today to make any hedge on long term, but short term, we believe we will have a benefit having VASA.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of George Gasztowtt from Latin Securities. Your line is open.

[George Gasztowtt, Equity Research Analyst at Latin Securities]

Good morning again, and thank you for taking my question. You mentioned earlier free cash flow expectations at around $150 million-$200 million this year. Prices have started the year a little bit above your invested assumption of $65 Brent, I was wondering how you're thinking about capital deployment and the capital deployment framework you also mentioned in the current price context.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Thanks, George, for your question. I mean, we said that we are very happy with the Brent prices on Q1 this year. It was not expected, and I think it's we believe it's mainly based on the volatility that we see in the market related to geopolitical issues. I think it's very early to change our plan for the entire year. Of course, we will watch what happened with oil price, but I don't think that it will affect any short-term decision. Regarding the long term, it's related to the question that Bruno said.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

I mean, we have our capital allocation framework, and anything that we can do in reducing debt and buybacks, dividends of M&A acquisition, cash income will be helpful to be more aggressive or less aggressive, depending how we build up, that cash unit in the years to come.

[George Gasztowtt, Equity Research Analyst at Latin Securities]

Very clear. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of João Barichello from UBS. Your line is open.

[João Barichelo, Equity Research Analyst at UBS]

Hi, Miguel and team. Thanks for taking my questions. I have only a very quick one from my side. Regarding the acquisition of Bajo del Toro and Bandurria Sur, the company stated that the transaction will be financed by a combination of both cash and bank finance. Could you provide an update on this financing plan? What are the expectations for the breakdown of cash and banking finance funds? That's it from my side. Thanks.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Thank you, João, for your question. Yes, I mean, the initial $387 million cash payment will be funded 100% with debt, and we plan to keep the cash balance stable at Vista. Pablo and Ale have agreed with the three top-tier banks, a bridge loan of $600 million of acquisition financing, which should be used and will be used and should be enough to cover our initial cash payment. Again, I mean, we'll do something with that later on, but it will not affect our balance sheet today and our plan in CapEx that we have for the year.

[Operator]

One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from the line of Oriana Covault from Balanz. Your line is open.

[Oriana Covault, Equity and Credit Research Analyst at Balanz]

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions, and congratulations on the solid results for the quarter. Just perhaps going into, more directly into potential shareholder returns, in the more constructive pricing scenario, what are the alternatives you have in place for 2026? Namely, do you have any thoughts to renew and/or extend the buyback program this year? Thank you.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Hi, Oriana, thank you for your question. In August, we execute the $50 million buyback plan that was approved by the shareholder meeting in April 2024. We purchased 1.2 million shares at $41.2 per share. We are considering the current share price. Considering the current share price, we are super happy with the outcome of that buyback plan. We plan to request an extension of the program in the coming shareholder meeting, and that is coming now in April. We believe it will be larger in size than the one that we planned for 2025.

[Oriana Covault, Equity and Credit Research Analyst at Balanz]

Perfect. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from Francisco Cascarón from DON Capital. Your line is open.

[Francisco Cascarón, US Tax Analyst at Don Capital]

Hi, thank you for taking my question. Given that you announced a CapEx of $1.5 billion-$1.6 billion annually between 2026 and 2028, what is your maintenance CapEx expectation in the foreseeable future?

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Hi, Francisco. Thanks for your question. Using 100,000 barrels per day of production as a reference, you need around $700 million-$750 million of CapEx to keep production flat going forward. Assuming that by the end of the year, we will be around 150,000 barrels per day, this, of course, is including Equinor asset. We will need around 60 wells to keep production flat, that will equate of around, $850 million CapEx, to keep production flat. You should take more or less those numbers.

[Francisco Cascarón, US Tax Analyst at Don Capital]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question will come from Matías Cattaruzzi from AdCap Securities. Your line is open.

[Matías Cattaruzzi, Senior PE Research Analyst at AdCap]

Thank you, Miguel and Alejandro. Good morning. How would you characterize Vista's relationship with YPF today after the La Amarga Chica acquisition and now the Equinor deal, where YPF is also an operator?

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Hi, Matías, and thanks for your question. The short answer is the relationship with YPF is great. We have very high hope after the acquisition of Petronas asset, on how the relationship will be put in place and will evolve. To be honest with you, turn out even better than we expect. It's working very well at all levels. I would say that the top, the strategies are aligned. Both companies want to continue, and that make the relationship very easy because we have the same target. The technical teams are working side by side, and that for me, is the more important part. We see them sharing geological information, collaborating, meeting, but more importantly, there has been synergies that have been captured.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Sharing oil treatment capacity that have led to save for CapEx, sharing well services, enabling both companies to optimize headcount, discussing artificially the strategies that will help to improve the long-term productivity of the well and reduce lifting costs. All in all, I will say it's a great relationship, and that, of course, that was the fact that give us confidence also to execute the Equinor deal. That was something that we took in consideration at the time that we made the decision.

[Matías Cattaruzzi, Senior PE Research Analyst at AdCap]

Okay, great. Thanks so much.

[Operator]

Thank you. I'm not showing any further questions at this time. I would now like to turn it back over to Miguel for any closing remarks.

[Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO at Vista Energy]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much once again for the support and very good quarter, and, we are pretty much on track, to deliver our guidance in 2026. A very good start of the year. Thank you, everybody.

[Operator]

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect. Everyone, have a great day.

Participants

Executives

• Alejandro Cherñacov, Strategic Planning and Investor Relations Officer
• Miguel Galuccio, Founder, Chairman, and CEO

Analysts

• Alejandro Demichelis, Managing Director of LatAm Equity Research at Jefferies
• Andres Cardona, Director of LatAm Equity Research at Citi
• Bruno Amorim, VP of Equity Research at Goldman Sachs
• Bruno Montanari, Executive Director and Equity Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley
• Daniel Guardiola, Executive Director of Equity Research at BTG Pactual
• Francisco Cascarón, US Tax Analyst at Don Capital
• George Gasztowtt, Equity Research Analyst at Latin Securities
• João Barichelo, Equity Research Analyst at UBS
• Kevin MacCurdy, Managing Director of Equity Research at Pickering Energy Partners
• Matías Cattaruzzi, Senior PE Research Analyst at AdCap
• Milene Carvalho, Equity Research Analyst at JPMorgan
• Nicolas Barros, Equity Research Analyst at Bank of America
• Oriana Covault, Equity and Credit Research Analyst at Balanz
• Walter Chiaversio, Head of Equity Research at Santander