Hubbell Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
February 3, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Hubbell reported a strong Q4 and full-year 2025 with 12% total sales growth, 140 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, 19% adjusted operating profit growth, 15% adjusted EPS growth, and full-year free cash flow of $875M (≈90% conversion) with net debt/EBITDA of 1.3x.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company initiated a confident 2026 outlook of 7%–9% total sales growth, $19.15–$19.85 adjusted EPS, ~90% free cash flow conversion, and segment organic targets of 5%–7% (Utility Solutions) and 4%–6% (Electrical Solutions), with modest margin expansion expected.
  • Positive Sentiment: Hubbell is deploying capital to high-return initiatives — notably closing the DMC Power acquisition, expanding automation and production capacity (Burndy examples), and launching new solutions — which management says will drive ongoing growth and margin improvement.
  • Negative Sentiment: Weakness persists in grid automation (meters and AMI), which was down 8% in Q4 and meaningfully pressured full-year organic growth, though management expects the business to stabilize at a lower base and only modestly recover in 2026.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Management expects mid-single-digit cost inflation in 2026 (notably metals) but says pricing and productivity actions — including Q4 price increases and modest incremental pricing — should be neutral to positive on the price/cost productivity equation.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Hubbell Q4 2025
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the fourth quarter 2025 Hubbell Incorporated earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please advise that today's conference is being recorded. I would like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Dan Innamorato, Vice President of investor relations. Please go ahead.

Dan Innamorato
Dan Innamorato
VP of Investor Relations at Hubbell Incorporated

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Earlier this morning, we issued a press release announcing our results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025. The press release and slides are posted at the investor section of our website at hubbell.com. I'm joined today by our Chairman, President, and CEO, Gerben Bakker, and our CFO, Joe Capozzoli. Please note our comments this morning may include statements related to the expected future results of our company. These are forward-looking statements as defined by the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Please note the discussion of forward-looking statements in our press release and consider it incorporated by reference into this call. Additionally, comments may also include non-GAAP financial measures. Those measures are reconciled to the comparable GAAP measures, which are included in the press release and slides.

Dan Innamorato
Dan Innamorato
VP of Investor Relations at Hubbell Incorporated

Now, let me turn the call over to Gerben.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Great. Good morning, and thank you for joining us to discuss Hubbell's fourth quarter and full year 2025 results. Hubbell delivered strong financial results in the fourth quarter, highlighted by 12% total sales growth, 140 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion, 19% adjusted operating profit growth, and 15% adjusted earnings per share growth. Organic growth of 9% in the fourth quarter was driven by double-digit organic growth in our Electrical Solutions segment, as well as our grid infrastructure businesses within the Utility solutions segment. Our core utility and electrical markets remain strong as data center build-outs, load growth, and aging infrastructure resiliency investments generate robust project activity in front and behind the meter. Hubbell's portfolio of critical components and solutions is uniquely positioned at the intersection of grid modernization and electrification megatrends.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Strong recent sales and order activity, along with continued execution on our strategy, positions us well to deliver on an attractive outlook in 2026 and beyond. Before I turn the call over to Joe to walk through our financial performance in more detail, I'd like to highlight a few key accomplishments in 2025. Starting with Electrical Solutions, we made significant progress in 2025 on our strategy to unify this segment to compete collectively. We generated above-market growth in attractive verticals with an integrated, solutions-oriented service model for our customers, while simultaneously driving business simplification and operational efficiencies to expand margins. These efforts resulted in 7% organic growth and 14% adjusted operating profit growth for the full year. Additionally, full year adjusted operating margins at HES exceeded 20% for the first time in history.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

In our Utility Solutions segment, while full-year organic growth was negatively impacted by metering and AMI markets, we delivered strong performance in the larger, higher-margin grid infrastructure businesses in our portfolio. Our leading positions in strong transmission and substation markets enabled double-digit growth for the full year, while distribution markets accelerated throughout 2025 as customer inventories normalized amid a healthy market backdrop. Over 80% of our HUS portfolio is aligned to electric T&D components and solutions, where our leading installed base and depth and breadth of product offering uniquely positions Hubbell to benefit from a highly visible long-term investment cycle. Importantly, we also continued to invest and allocate capital to high-return areas while further differentiating our unique service advantage with customers. Most notably, we closed on a high growth and margin acquisition in DMC Power. We invested in automation and expanded production capacity in high-growth areas.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

We positioned our sales force to gain share in attractive vertical markets. We successfully launched new innovative solutions, and we continue to be recognized and awarded by our customers for our industry-leading service level. We plan to continue investing in each of these critical levers of our long-term strategy to drive ongoing growth and productivity benefits in 2026 and beyond. Hubbell's 2025 free cash flow margin of 15% and return on invested capital of 19% are strong evidence of the quality of our business model and of our ability to invest on behalf of our shareholders to generate strong returns both now and over the long term. Let me turn the call over right now to Joe to provide some more details on the financial results.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Thank you, Gerben. I'm starting my comments on slide five. Hubbell's fourth quarter financial performance was strong, with double-digit growth across sales, adjusted operating profit, and adjusted diluted earnings per share. Net sales of $1.493 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 increased by 12% as compared to the prior year, driven by 9% organic growth and acquisitions contributing 3%. Both Electrical Solutions and grid infrastructure products within our utility segment delivered double-digit organic growth in the fourth quarter, an acceleration versus prior quarters, driven by incremental price realization and stronger demand in data center and utility T&D markets. This strength was partially offset by continued softness in Grid Automation, though declines in this business have moderated relative to prior quarters.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

From an operational standpoint, we generated $349 million of adjusted operating profit and expanded adjusted operating margins by 140 basis points in the fourth quarter, which combined with strong sales growth, generated adjusted operating profit growth of 19%. While cost inflation accelerated in the fourth quarter as anticipated, our pricing and productivity actions have been successful in more than offsetting these costs. Our strong positions in attractive markets and our execution in proactively managing our cost structure drove positive price cost productivity in the quarter. Adjusted diluted earnings per share were $4.73 in the fourth quarter, representing a 15% increase versus the prior year, and were driven by strong operating profit growth, partially offset by higher interest expense associated with the DMC Power acquisition and a higher year-over-year tax rate.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Fourth quarter free cash flow generation of $389 million was strong to close the year. On a full year 2025 basis, we generated $875 million of free cash flow, representing 90% conversion on adjusted net income, which was in line with our previous outlook. Our balance sheet remains strong, with net debt to EBITDA of 1.3x exiting the year, which positions us well to continue reinvesting in our business and deploying capital for shareholders at high rates of return, as Gerben just highlighted. Turning to page 6 to review our performance by segment. Utility Solutions delivered a strong quarter with double-digit growth in sales and adjusted operating profit.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Starting with the top line, Utility Solutions generated net sales in the fourth quarter of $936 million, which represents growth of 10% versus the prior year and includes organic growth of 7% and acquisitions contributing 4%. Grid infrastructure, which, as a reminder, represents approximately three quarters of the segment's sales, was up 12% organically. Grid infrastructure strength was broad-based, with strong growth across distribution, substation, and transmission markets. Utility customers continued to aggressively invest in new transmission and substation infrastructure to interconnect new sources of load and generation on the grid, while aging infrastructure trends drove solid hardening and resiliency activity in distribution markets against easier prior year comparisons. Outside of T&D markets, telecom and gas markets experienced solid growth in the quarter.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Grid automation sales were down 8% in the quarter, as solid growth in grid protections and controls was more than offset by weaker new project activity in meters and AMI. Operationally, HUS achieved $235 million of adjusted operating profit in the fourth quarter, representing 20% growth in adjusted operating profit versus the prior year, with adjusted operating margins expanding 200 basis points year-over-year. Operating profit growth was primarily driven by strong volumes in grid infrastructure, favorable price cost productivity, and acquisitions, partially offset by volume declines within Grid Automation. Turning to page 7, Electrical Solution results were strong in the quarter, with double-digit growth in net sales and adjusted operating profit. For the fourth quarter, Electrical Solutions generated net sales of $557 million.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Organic growth of 13% was driven by significant strength in data center markets and solid growth in light industrial markets, as well as strong price realization, partially offset by softer, heavy industrial and non-residential markets. Data center growth exceeded 60% in the quarter. In addition to healthy end market dynamics, our data center performance in the fourth quarter was bolstered by targeted capacity investments in our balance of systems components, as well as strong project activity in our modular power distribution skid business. Overall, our vertical market strategy and commercial alignment initiatives, as well as new product introductions, continue to drive out growth in key markets. Operationally, HES delivered $114 million of adjusted operating profit in the fourth quarter, representing 18% growth in adjusted operating profit versus the prior year, with adjusted operating margins expanding 60 basis points year-over-year.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Operating profit growth was primarily driven by strong volumes and favorable price cost productivity in the quarter, including attractive returns from our ongoing restructuring investments. Before I turn the call back over to Gerben to provide our full year outlook, I'd like to highlight on slide 8 some recent investments we've made in our HES segment, which are generating increased output in high growth areas, as well as enhanced productivity across our manufacturing footprint. Our Burndy brand is a leader in electrical connectors and grounding products across a wide range of industrial end markets, including data center markets, where Burndy has strong specified positions with major customers who value our leading product quality and service levels. With the significant demand inflection we've experienced in high growth verticals like data center, we've had the opportunity to leverage capacity expansion investments to reconfigure our production workflows and drive productivity through automation.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

The example on the page highlights our recent investment in 4 specialized enclosed automation work cells for copper lug production, where we've been able to combine 6 manual production processes into single flow automated lines for high running SKUs, reducing factory processing time from days to minutes for certain product lines and reduced manufacturing complexity. The end result of these investments is that we were able to increase output to serve strong customer demand, while also driving productivity through reductions in labor and factory floor space. While this is one example of a major product line in one of our businesses, it demonstrates our ability to utilize CapEx investments to meet customer needs and drive both enhanced growth and margin expansion.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

This has been one of many critical components of our successful HES segment transformation strategy over the last several years, and we see further opportunity across both segments to invest in high return growth and productivity initiatives within our factories. With that, I will turn the call back over to Gerben to provide our 2026 outlook.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Great. Turning to page 9. We anticipate 5%-7% organic growth across our portfolio in 2026. Similar to the preliminary view we provided in October, we anticipate broad-based strength across our largest businesses, serving attractive utility T&D, data center, and light industrial end markets. In Utility Solutions, we anticipate 5%-7% organic growth for the full year. Transmission and substation demand remains strong, and we expect our leading positions in these end markets to drive continued success in converting on high visibility project pipelines as utility customers invest in grid interconnections. Utility distribution activity is healthy, driven by both routine maintenance and systematic upgrades to aging infrastructure in order for customers to meet key outage and performance metrics.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

In Grid Automation, modernization initiatives targeted at delivering more insights and control capabilities in the field are expected to lead to continued strength in protection and control solutions in 2026, more than offsetting a more modest outlook for meters and AMI markets. In Electrical Solutions, we anticipate 4%-6% organic growth for the full year, and similar to 2025, we expect growth to be led by data center markets, which now represent more than 10% of segment sales and are expected to expand mid-teens. While we expect non-residential and heavy industrial market growth to be more muted, industrial reshoring and electrical megaproject activities are expected to drive continued solid growth in light industrial and renewable markets.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Looking across our portfolio, we expect a strong year of organic growth in 2026, and we believe our largest, highest margin end markets are still early in multiyear, highly visible investment cycle, which will enable attractive growth for the next several years and beyond. Concluding our prepared remarks on page 10, we are initiating our 2026 outlook this morning for 7%-9% total sales growth, $19.15-$19.85 adjusted earnings per share, and approximately 90% free cash flow conversion on adjusted net income. At the midpoint of the range, this outlook anticipates approximately 10% year-over-year growth in adjusted operating profit, driven primarily by strong organic growth and core operating leverage, as well as wraparound contribution from the DMC Power acquisition.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Operationally, we anticipate another year of margin expansion in 2026, as we are well positioned to manage price and productivity to at least offset inflation, while also reaccelerating investment back into our business following a period of proactive cost management over the last couple of years. Our 2026 outlook is in line with our long-term financial framework, which we are confident will continue to deliver long-term value creation for our shareholders off of a strong multi-year base of performance. With that, let me turn the call over to questions and answers.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we'll conduct a question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please limit yourself to one question and a follow-up. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Jeffrey Sprague of Vertical Research Partners. Your line is now open.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Good morning, Jeff.

Jeffrey Sprague
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Well, sorry about that. I was on mute. Good morning, everyone. There was a comment about orders in the prepared remarks. I'm sure that's contemplated in your revenue guide, but can you just give us a little bit more color on what you're seeing in orders, kind of the complexion across the business? And one of the things I am wondering about is just the strong load growth and CapEx you're seeing, is that negatively impacting MRO activity, kind of in the core legacy business? Or is that sort of chugging along at a normal rate?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yep. Let me maybe start with a general comment on orders, Jeff. Certainly the recent momentum has been strong. As we talked on our last call, we started to see this inflection in our order book in like the September timeframe, and particularly in the areas of T&D and data center. You know, as a reminder, we are primarily a book-to-bill business. But in that, you know, the order strength over the fourth quarter really drove our organic sales growth. So it wasn't, you know, working through backlog or anything. This was reflected in the actual orders that we saw.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

You know, I would say even exiting the year, that was very positive, and we even built a little bit of backlog in some of our businesses, like the T&D business. That order momentum going into 2026 has continued. So I would say this, you know, visibility, together with what we know are favorable end markets, provides us confidence for 2026. Now, of course, you know, being a book-and-bill business, our visibility doesn't extend throughout the entire year of 2026. We do have a few businesses where, you know, we're fully filled with backlog. But the majority of the business being book and bill, you know, we need to see how the year unfolds for that.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

But I would say it's off to a good start, ending the year and starting this year. And you know, particularly to your question of CapEx with OpEx, and that's a question related to you know, our utility and infrastructure business. As you see those percentages, clearly you know, a very strong inflection in the CapEx. It's very hard to say, because a lot of the materials that we supply, Jeff, are you know, fungible to whether you know, the same materials go into CapEx that go into OpEx as well. What we are seeing shorter term, there's a lot of investment right now going into generation. And I would say you know, that too falls within the general budgets that we have. And you know, our exposure, of course, is less in generation.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

But that said, you know, what we see in transmission and substation, what we see in distribution, it's certainly very supportive of our you know long-term framework and positive going into 2026.

Jeffrey Sprague
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

And then just on meters and AMI, I thought we might be done talking about it declining in the third quarter, but, you know, we're still heading south. I see you don't have, you know, any real expectation of note through 2026. I mean, is there something else going on with that business, or is it just a total lack of project activity? We know the backlogs are completed, but any other color there?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah, it's a little bit what you said, Jeff. It's. And as we worked through 2025 and, you know, as we communicated, we were still working through that large project backlog, and, you know, through a lot of 2025, we actually consumed backlog as we did that. What we haven't seen return is a lot of those larger projects. So the business right now is more, you know, smaller project, more replacement product. It's evidence for us when we see the book-to-bill at 1, or close to 1, that we're kind of have stabilized that business off this lower base. You know, I'd say the good part with that is we're now working off of this lower base, and we do expect, you know, from here on, to modestly grow that business.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Now, of course, if you compare that to last year, where throughout the year that business declined, you know, we have some comps to lap here, you know, in the first quarter. But if you think about it sequentially from here, I would say it's really at the bottom, and from here, it should start to grow modestly.

Jeffrey Sprague
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Great. And maybe just one other quick one, if I could. Just kind of, you're indicating maybe Q1, right? A little bit tougher. Are you suggesting Q1 would be sort of outside the recent normal of sort of 19%-20% of the year?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah, I think the interesting part on Q1 is a little bit the concept. I think for us, the better way always to look at this is year-over-year in these, and from that perspective, it will, you know, be a very strong quarter if you compare to, you know, how we started last year. But I think if you think about the year in total, it's a fairly normal year. So I think in the kind of things that, the percentage that you're thinking about... Now, you know, the only thing I would say in percentage is to not use it as the sole factor, because those things, as you will do your models, are very, very sensitive to a tenth of a percentage point.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

But you're in the right. There's really nothing specifically to highlight of for 2026 that's as we think throughout the year.

Jeffrey Sprague
Analyst at Vertical Research Partners

Great. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell of Barclays. Your line is now open. Julian, your line is now open.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Morning, Julian.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Okay.

Julian Mitchell
Julian Mitchell
Analyst at Barclays

Sorry about that. I think I was maybe muted. So, maybe just to start off with, could you help us understand on the margin front? I think the guide's embedding maybe 50 basis points of operating margin expansion for the year, for the total company. Maybe help us understand if that's correct, and how we should think about that sort of playing out through the year, and is it weighted to any one segment of the two?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah. Good morning, Julian. Yeah, I would say that, you know, you're thinking about that level of margin expansion is about right. Like Gerben had mentioned, thinking about the way that our 2026 is kind of taking shape in terms of a bit of a normal, let's say, seasonal head and shoulders type shape, you know, from Q1, we peak in Q3, come back down in Q4, but still higher than Q1. I think that's a good way to think about it. And Julian, I would just I would say maybe just from a timing perspective, you know, we anticipate investing roughly $15 million-$20 million of restructuring this year. I think you'll probably see that a little front end loaded.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Maybe you'll see a third of it come through in the first quarter. I'd probably also highlight our tax rate tends to be a little higher in the first quarter as well.

Julian Mitchell
Julian Mitchell
Analyst at Barclays

I understand. And, and so just to sort of follow up a little bit on, on that first quarter, point. Should we, should we assume organic sales growth is sort of front loaded a little bit because of, of comps? And, and then in light of what you just said on the sort of BTLs and so forth, are we, are we thinking sort of first quarter is about 20% of the year's EPS, that type of typical, cadence?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah. I think, Julian, we'll see a strong start to the year from an organic perspective, and Gerben highlighted that, so I think you'll see nice 1Q year-over-year growth. And I think that's how we would anticipate, you know, starting off the year.

Julian Mitchell
Julian Mitchell
Analyst at Barclays

Got it. And that sort of 20% share of the year for EPS is roughly sensible?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah. I would say on that, you know, be careful with using this percentage. As I said, to Jeff's earlier question, those tend to be very, very sensitive in terms of a percentage point, if you do that math. I wouldn't use that as the sole determinant of a first quarter. Rather think about the moving parts.

Julian Mitchell
Julian Mitchell
Analyst at Barclays

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder of Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Chris Snyder
Chris Snyder
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Thank you. I wanted to follow up on some of the, the margin commentary. So, you know, as you said, to Julian's question, maybe the guide calls for about 50 basis points up in 2026 at the midpoint. But I mean, is it fair to think that Q1 would be well ahead of that level? I know it's always the... You know, Q1 is always the lowest margin quarter of the year, but the comp a year ago just seems much easier in Q1, relative to Q2 to Q4. So just kind of any color on, on that. Thank you.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah. I think we are anticipating, you know, solid margin expansion throughout the year, including the first quarter. And so I think, again, you know, we're anticipating the momentum that we're carrying out of the fourth quarter, you know, positions us well to start the year.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

And maybe adding to that, and it was asked in an earlier question, so the margin expansion we expect in not only the company, but in both segments.

Chris Snyder
Chris Snyder
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Thank you. I, I appreciate that. And then if I could just follow up on price. You know, I believe you guys pushed some incremental price during the quarter in Q4. So could you provide any color just on how price shook out in Q4, and then any expectations that, that, that's, you know, underwriting the guide for 2026? And if you could share anything around the wrap versus the incremental 2026 action, that would be helpful. Thank you.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Sure. So you're right to highlight that we did have some incremental price actions that were implemented in the fourth quarter. And I think we had highlighted previously, we were anticipating about 3 points of price for the full year, and that's consistent with what we saw come through. Certainly, that will have some wraparounds impact, that will carry price into 2026. We'll also carry some cost inflation into 2026, and I think consistent with how we've been managing price, cost, productivity, and again, consistent with our guide, we're anticipating neutral to positive on that front.

Chris Snyder
Chris Snyder
Executive Director at Morgan Stanley

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Tusa of JPMorgan Chase & Co.. Your line is now open.

Stephen Tusa
Stephen Tusa
Managing Director at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Hey, guys. Good morning.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Hey, Steve. Good morning.

Stephen Tusa
Stephen Tusa
Managing Director at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Just on the flip side of that question, what, I know, you know, FIFO kind of changes things, but like what is your current assumption on raw materials prices? Are you guys just taking what the spots are today and then kind of running that through? Are you assuming some sort of average, some forecast? Like, what are you assuming for kind of the underlying metals pricing, acknowledging it's not as big of a swing factor in the near term as it used to be?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Sure, Steve. Good morning. And, yeah, we've been watching the materials, the metals prices, you know, very closely, and we did see some creep coming out of the fourth quarter with higher copper, aluminum, steel. And, we're anticipating maybe more broadly, including metals and other inflation, but we're anticipating about mid-single digits for cost inflation in 2026. And, our price actions and productivity is anticipated to address that level of cost inflation that we're expecting. Certainly, you know, we'll manage as the year progresses, but similar to levels of inflation that we addressed last year, I think that's how we're thinking about 2026, Steve.

Stephen Tusa
Stephen Tusa
Managing Director at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Is that inflation based on what price level, like at year end, where we are today? Like, what does that inflation assume for the actual price levels?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah, it's in and around, you know, where we exited the year. Which again, coming out of the fourth quarter, we saw some rising metals prices. That's kind of continued a little bit here in January, and we'll continue to keep our finger on the pulse with how they move and what we're doing on the price and productivity side.

Stephen Tusa
Stephen Tusa
Managing Director at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Okay. And then one last quick one on this first quarter question. Did you mean that, like, the 20% or whatever the guys talked about earlier, that first quarter should be better than that? Or like, I'm having trouble kind of reading the tea leaves, whether, you know, it's better than the 20% or a little bit less than the 20% of the year for you on EPS?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

What we said, Steve, is we get off to a strong start from an organic growth and margin expansion perspective. I, I think, again, if you're looking at percentages of the year, it can be very sensitive. So if you just look at how we exited 2025 from a revenue perspective, that's good to think about seasonally. From a year-over-year margin perspective, we expect expansion, right? So, yeah. Yeah, I wouldn't necessarily be thinking about that, that number is, is higher.

Stephen Tusa
Stephen Tusa
Managing Director at JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Okay. Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Joe O'Dea of Wells Fargo & Company. Your line is now open.

Joseph O'Dea
Joseph O'Dea
Managing Director at Wells Fargo & Company

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Can you talk a little bit about first half, first and second half growth in grid infrastructure, and, and in particular, the transmission and substation side versus the electrical distribution side, and trying to get a little bit of color around electrical distribution comps, what you think kind of that underlying growth rate is in the back half of the year when the comps adjust. And then, in addition, just what the backlog looks like on the transmission and substation side, and visibility that you have into something like high single digit, low double digit throughout the year versus kind of stronger first half over second half.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah, I would say if we think about those markets, clearly, you know, we're optimistic about the investments that are going in. And I would say on the transmission and substation, that's been, you know, growing in these high single digits, low double digits for a while, and, you know, that's how we continue to see that unfolding. You know, in distribution, you know, that was strengthening throughout last year, right? That's what we said earlier in the year. We're still, you know, somewhat challenged by that growth, but that we expected that to come, and we did see that come. So if you think about that, it partially drives, of course, the better, easier comps earlier in the year to later on.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

But fundamentally thinking about these markets, you know, think about the substation and transmission and, you know, that kind of high single digits and distribution, mid-single digits, for 2026 is the right way to be thinking about that.

Joseph O'Dea
Joseph O'Dea
Managing Director at Wells Fargo & Company

Okay. And then, on free cash flow, it looks like maybe you shake out in a range of kind of $900 million-$1 billion for the year. Just how you're thinking about the spend opportunity there with respect to the M&A pipeline, appetite on share repo, just how we can think about your approach to, some pretty good free cash generation?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Sure, Joe. So we're thinking about $900 million-$1 billion of free cash flow next year. And I think 2025 was a really good year of deploying capital to a combination of high quality, you know, CapEx program. Our M&A was rather successful with three deals at roughly $950 million deployed, and we also layered in some share repurchase over the course of 2025. So with that level of cash flow we're anticipating next year, I think we would think about deploying in a similar fashion to the extent that there's attractive, you know, both on M&A that fits, you know, very complementary to our portfolio.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

I think with that level of cash flow, we would probably think about supplementing with some more share repo as well. So I think going into the year, that's how we would think about it. The deal pipeline, maybe Gerben, you can comment on that, but you know, looks pretty good to start the year, but a lot still has to come together on the M&A front, to be more specific.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yep. Yep. Yeah, and I think as we think about the return, you know, CapEx continues to be, you know, our highest return project, followed by acquisitions. And I would say as far as acquisitions, that pipeline has bolt-ons in it. It has some larger deals in it. Timing, you know, as we always say, is very, very hard to predict, but focused on the areas where we clearly, you know, have the right to play and right to win. So, you know, think about T&D markets, think about, you know, some of the core electrical markets, is where we're focused on. So, you know, I feel good in our ability to continue to deploy capital, but we will remain very disciplined.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

We see, you know, dividend and share repurchases as a good alternatives in periods where that acquisition pipeline is perhaps or the execution on that pipeline is a little bit lower.

Joseph O'Dea
Joseph O'Dea
Managing Director at Wells Fargo & Company

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes on the line of Nigel Coe, of Wolfe Research. Your line is now open.

Nigel Coe
Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Just wanna follow up on Steve's question on the cost inflation side. 6% on the COGS, I think is the metric. Maybe can you just break that down between, you know, sort of your the metals and raw materials, which I think is about 25% of your COGS, if I'm not mistaken, and then maybe components and then other COGS. I'm wondering, is that 6% a gross number, or would that be net of productivity?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah. You have the cost pie split about right. You know, half of the cost pool is materials, which includes metals and components, and about half of that cost pool is, or a quarter is more on the metals side. So that's about right. The mid-single digits that we're anticipating for total inflation on our total cost pool is not net of productivity. Price and productivity would be outside of that to manage that mid-single digit cost pool. And Nigel, I'd probably also highlight what we saw about a similar level of inflation, you know, total inflation in 2025, mid-single digits, and again, that was managed, you know, effectively with price and productivity levers throughout the year.

Nigel Coe
Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research

Okay. You know, as part of a follow-up, if I could maybe just clarify: Is there additional price actions, you know, in the plan, in the first quarter to address that, or does the wraparound price address that? But just a quick follow-on really, on the data center growth. I think you said mid-teens, which, you know, mid-teens isn't shabby, but certainly seems to be a bit below where the market's trending in 2026. So just wondering, you know, what gives you, sort of, informs the mid-teens view?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

So I'll start with the wraparound price. And yes, so we're anticipating wraparound price and modest incremental price to start the year, as we typically have, first quarter price increases roll through. And those are in motion and having conversations with customers. On the data center side, you know, we highlighted 60% data center growth in the fourth quarter. I think that was roughly 40% growth for the full year in data center. And data center for us, kind of, discretely, the way we describe that is more on the electrical side, and that's coming from two places primarily.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

One is our modular power distribution skid business, and that side of the business had a pretty heavy project load throughout 2025, which really drove a lot of those strong year-over-year growth rates from 2025 versus 2024. They're anticipate it to continue a heavy project load in 2026, so those growth rates in 2026 versus 2025 will step down a little bit. And then we certainly have our connectors and grounding products, which also service data center and continue to grow nicely. So to start the year, we feel really good coming out of 2025 on data center, and we're looking at that, you know, mid to high teens on our outlook for data center on the electrical side.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah, yeah, maybe add a good part of that business is short cycle, right? If you think about Burndy, the connector. So, you know, the visibility of them out there, that last year was a good year, and I would say that's a good example that we show where we're adding capital, we're expanding, and if that proves out to be conservative, we'll do better this year. We'll serve that demand.

Nigel Coe
Nigel Coe
Managing Director at Wolfe Research

Yeah. Okay. Understood. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes on the line of Chad Dillard of Bernstein. Your line is now open.

Chad Dillard
Chad Dillard
Analyst at Bernstein

Hey, good morning, guys. So I want to follow up on your price cost through the year. So, how do you expect that to trend with respect to your guidance? And then can you just remind us of the total tariff impact in 2025 versus 2026, and what is IEEPA versus 232?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

... Yeah, price cost throughout 2026, it's a little hard to, you know, to kind of pinpoint or walk back quarter to quarter. We certainly anticipate as the year progresses, we'll see, you know, more inflation kind of settle in, and we would certainly anticipate between our price and productivity actions, they continue to ramp throughout the year. And so we're confident that we'll navigate that equation of managing price, cost, productivity to neutral or better throughout the year. And we don't anticipate a tremendous amount of lumpiness. Tariffs is a, you know, that's certainly I think we said... we said in the middle of 2025, there's roughly, we saw about $150 million worth of tariff and related, you know, costs.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Over the back half of 2025, we managed that number down a little lower than the $150 million level. There really haven't been a whole lot of changes in tariff rates, you know, recently. Obviously, that can change at any point in time. We feel like we're managing that very effectively at the moment, and we're ready to react and respond if there's large changes in tariffs going forward.

Chad Dillard
Chad Dillard
Analyst at Bernstein

Gotcha. That's helpful. And then just a second question for you. It sounds like there's, you know, larger transmission projects that are in the wings over the next, like, couple of years, and you guys have talked about, I think, 85% of the total addressable to Hubbell. But if we just like zoom in on, like, the transmission portion alone, what does that look like, and how should we think about the, the TAM opportunity for Hubbell?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah, certainly, I would say it's an area of strength. And if you look at our portfolio, I would say our portfolio is very similar, whether you're talking distribution or whether you're talking transmission and substation, in the percentage of material that we provide on it. Now, while we provide a very large percentage of the material, the cost tends to be low because of the nature of those components, and that speaks to the really the strength of our portfolio, where, you know, the quality of that and the service of that is extremely important, but it represents a lower percentage of the cost.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

So, it's a really good position that the price is not the first leading indicator there to compete, rather some of these other ones. But these markets are very strong, and you know, the visibility is further out on it. You're right to point out some of these projects go into, you know, 2026, 2027 [MVO]. You know, the scale and scope of these, both in length of a project, of miles and in voltages of it, we very much participate in. So our position is quite good in this market, and the markets are strong. So I'd say well-positioned.

Chad Dillard
Chad Dillard
Analyst at Bernstein

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes on the line of Scott Graham of Seaport Research Partners, your line is now open.

Scott Graham
Scott Graham
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. You know, on Aclara, I know that I think we just generally stated earlier, and in other calls that, you know, there was supposed to be sort of a, a bottoming maybe in the fourth quarter, and now it seems like, you know, maybe it's at the bottom going forward. I'm just wondering, was there business there that you walked away from, perhaps, you know, repositioning it? And, you know, what is really the long-term portfolio fit here?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah. Maybe I'd say there's nothing specific to point out about the business we walked away from. But what we have talked about in the past is that this business has traditionally served munis and co-ops really well. And, you know, a few years ago, we made, you know, quite large investment in the technology to also be able to serve large IOU, and the technology is just a little bit different in those utilities. That proved to be, you know, hard. Both projects were being delayed during the COVID period of time, but even the adoption of that technology at large IOUs proved more difficult. So we did, you know, a pivot last year. We reshaped that business a little bit.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

We took a lot of cost out of that business to really continue to focus it on, you know, the market that where we have a really strong position. And, you know, I think that business could do really well in that market that we're focused on. So that's really our focus for that business right now. You know, it's a quite small percentage of the overall utility business. If you look at it, it's about half of the grid automation business, and I would say the rest of the portfolio, the other half of that grid automation business, as well as the grid infrastructure business, is very attractive margin and very attractive growth.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

So I'd look at this as, as you know, a business that will—we expect to do better, like, we expect the margin to improve from here going forward. It fits the portfolio. But that said, you know, we continue to look at our portfolio, as what I said before. At this point, though, that's the path that we're on for this business.

Scott Graham
Scott Graham
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

That's very helpful. Thank you. I very much appreciate that. You made a comment about a number of your divisions being particularly, you know, early in a multi-year investment cycle, and I obviously think we know most of those, but I wanted to maybe just focus on substation, which has been a great business for you.for some time now. Is that one of the businesses where you think it's still early, and why? And if I may also say, how much of that business's growth has been sort of aided by data centers, if you could?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah. Yeah, that's a great question. So the short of it is very, very attractive. We're very well positioned. We've historically been well positioned in it, but if you look at some of our recent acquisitions, if you look at Systems Control, that's very much in that space. If you look at DMC that we just acquired, very much in that space. So we're growing our are continuing to grow our, you know, scale and scope of the products we offer in there. And I would say attractive area without data center, but clearly aided by data centers right now as well. And you know, it's sometimes it's very specific.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

A data center will be, you know, putting up the infrastructure, and they'll put the substation right next to it, and I would say those are very directly related. But utilities are investing a lot of this to just interconnect more power throughout the countries, and that requires a lot of substations. So it's sometimes very hard to pinpoint, is it specific or not to data, but the space is very attractive, Scott. Yes, and we're very well positioned in it.

Scott Graham
Scott Graham
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

Yeah, and the substations themselves, the infrastructure itself is pretty old still, right?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Absolutely. Absolutely.

Scott Graham
Scott Graham
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

Thank you.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yep.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Tommy Moll of Stephens. Your line is now open.

Tommy Moll
Analyst at Stephens, Inc.

Good morning, and thank you for taking my questions.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Hey, Tommy.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Morning, Tommy.

Tommy Moll
Analyst at Stephens, Inc.

It sounds like the market conditions for your electric distribution business are somewhat normal now. I think you mentioned channel inventories seem normalized. I'm curious for any more detail you can give us there, just given some of the uncertainty if we go back, say, a year ago. And when we look at the mid-singles guide you provided for this year, should we think of that as an accurate reflection of the underlying demand, or is there a little bit of help from perhaps a restock in that number? Thank you.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah, I would say maybe start with the last one. It's an accurate reflection of the end demand. The, the, you know, clearly last year, we still saw that destock and, and, you know, I'm glad to stop talking about destock because it, it, you know, it lasted way too long, at first with, with, you know, distribution and with end customers not going homogeneous, different, you know, different parts of the region, different customers going at, at different rates there. But, but we're through there, and I think that the best indication of it, we saw that early in the year starting to reflect with orders. Then later in the year, we started to see it by actually shipping and the book-to-bill staying at that level. So we really feel, feel, you know, confident that we're through that.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

What we didn't see, though, is customers, both retail and distributors, over-pivot that. So what didn't happen is that they actually ran those inventories way, way down, too far down, and that they had to restock. Our conversations with our customers are, what were days they were targeting? How were they coming to getting to those days, specifically in distribution? And there was not an overshoot to that. So I'd say indicative of demand, Tommy.

Tommy Moll
Analyst at Stephens, Inc.

Yeah. Thank you, Gerben. Perhaps this is indeed the last quarter we'll have to address this topic.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

I hope so.

Tommy Moll
Analyst at Stephens, Inc.

A follow-up question for you on M&A. It sounds like the pipeline is still pretty full. There have been a number of pretty high-profile transactions in your space, several of which you've been involved in, where you've been able to acquire at pretty reasonable multiples despite some of the impressive growth in the out years. So I'm just curious, from where you sit today, does it still feel like that's gonna be possible in the year ahead, or how would you characterize the seller versus the buyer expectations here? Thank you.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah. Yeah, it... I mean, what you point out, clearly, multiples have gone up over the last... I mean, we were buying companies not too long ago in the single digit multiples, and that's clearly increased. But you're pointing out the correct in them, the returns on those businesses are still very good for us because the growth rates have gone up. Those are more attractive businesses. We do really well with those.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

When there are businesses that what we call right down the fairway, the bolt-ons, even some of the larger ones, you know, the synergies that we can get out of those businesses, the complementary growth that we can out of it, it's, you know, we're very good buyers of those businesses and can generally get more out of them probably than the average acquirer, because it scales with the rest of our portfolio. So, you know, any one deal, you know, depending on the competition for it, could, of course, be an outlier. We do see the entire pipeline. I can tell you that even though we don't always own every business that goes through this process. It's not because, you know, we didn't see it coming, right?

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

There, there's different reasons at times where we don't end up owning these businesses. But we're very active in it. And I would say kind of the multiples that you see, I would say is about where we continue to see pricing right now. Not higher, not necessarily lower.

Tommy Moll
Analyst at Stephens, Inc.

Thank you, Gerben. I'll turn it back.

Gerben Bakker
Chairman, President, and CEO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Brett Linzey of Mizuho. Your line is now open.

Brett Linzey
Brett Linzey
Managing Director and Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Hey, good morning. Just back to the outlook and specifically the non-res heavy industrial piece, you're planning for continued softness this year. Exit rates appear to be pretty soft in Q4. How do we think about those markets in the context of the mega project momentum you noted in the prepared remarks? Are those just longer duration or any color would be great?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah, I think we've seen non-res and heavy industrial have both been flattish, you know, low growth for the last couple of years, and we're not really seeing tangible signs of meaningful acceleration there, which is kind of consistent with what you saw us lay out on our 2026 revenue outlook. I think for us, we see mega projects really impacting our light industrial business. And light industrial and data center has been a source of strength over the last couple of years. So I think that's probably where we're seeing it more so, is on the light industrial side. Cautious on non-res and heavy, and again, when we start to see that come through more tangibly, you know, I think we feel better about the outlook on those markets.

Brett Linzey
Brett Linzey
Managing Director and Analyst at Mizuho Securities

All right. Understood. And then just one quick follow-up on the price, cost, productivity equation. So the payback on the $15 million-$20 million of restructuring, is that contemplated within the netting, or should we think of the associated savings as maybe some cushion as those paybacks convert through the year?

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah, those paybacks tend to convert through the year. And, you know, discretely, we start an action and they're typically 2-3-year paybacks. They're quite attractive. And our history, the last several years, has been investing a similar amount, you know, $15 million-$20 million a year. So we have some really nice momentum from all the initiatives that we have rolling. So think about them like in the year, they're kind of self-funding with productivity from prior actions. We're investing for the future. Those future projects have 2-3-year paybacks, and they'll be nice tailwinds for next, you know, for 2027, 2028 and beyond. And we see a horizon with really attractive ongoing R&R opportunities.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

It's tough to do a lot of them, you know, at a single time because they can be, you know, complicated. They can be... You know, there's some risk associated with them, but we've been managing them very thoughtfully, and that's contemplated in our plan.

Brett Linzey
Brett Linzey
Managing Director and Analyst at Mizuho Securities

Appreciate the detail.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Alexander Virgo of Evercore ISI. Your line is now open.

Alexander Virgo
Alexander Virgo
Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI

Yeah, thanks very much. Morning, gents. I wondered if you could just pick up a couple of small ones for me. DMC coming in in 2026, I think you talked about it being in line with prior expectations, but I'm just wondering about the benefits of margin accretion from the deal versus the cost to integrate, and if you could give us any color on that. And then, on HES, it looks like DC, the business kind of built to a decent mid-single digit exit to the year. The implication in the guide, I guess, is that that perhaps inverses somewhat in the back half.

Alexander Virgo
Alexander Virgo
Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI

I'm just wondering if there's anything specific you're baking in there or if it's just a bit of caution on lack of visibility, and whether there's anything that you've, you've got in there in terms of new product contribution to growth that can help offset that. Thanks very much.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

Yeah. So on the, I'll take the DMC margin, you know, first. I think, DMC was with us for basically a full quarter in the fourth quarter, that their sales and their margin was right in line with our expectations and what we had previously communicated. Our outlook contemplates $130 million of revenue and roughly 40%, you know, operating margins, which is net of integration costs. No change in how we were thinking about DMC and communicating that coming out of the fourth quarter to start the year. We're very excited about what DMC adds to the portfolio. On the HES side, with that, with the fourth quarter exit rate, you know, that fourth quarter was pretty heavy with data center projects.

Joe Capozzoli
Joe Capozzoli
CFO at Hubbell Incorporated

And so, you know, we would anticipate, and we have good line of sight to data center projects throughout the duration of 2026. And so I think what you would see on electrical is nice year-over-year growth rates as we progress, you know, through the year. And naturally, with such a strong fourth quarter of 2025, you'd see that year over year. When we get out to 4Q of 2026, for electrical, that'll shrink a little bit because of that surge in 4Q 2025 dynamic.

Alexander Virgo
Alexander Virgo
Senior Managing Director at Evercore ISI

Perfect. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. I'm showing no further questions at this time. I'll now turn it back to Dan Innamorato for closing remarks.

Dan Innamorato
Dan Innamorato
VP of Investor Relations at Hubbell Incorporated

Great. Thanks, everybody, for joining us. We're on all day for calls and follow-ups. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Dan Innamorato
      Dan Innamorato
      VP of Investor Relations
    • Joe Capozzoli
      Joe Capozzoli
      CFO
Analysts
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