Shinhan Financial Group Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
April 23, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Shinhan Value Up 3.0 Plus introduced with three pillars — target ROE 10%+, a revamped shareholder return framework targeting TSR 50%+ (no upper cap) tied to ROE/growth, and a commitment to maintain CET1 13%+, aiming to align predictable returns with sustainable growth.
  • Positive Sentiment: Q1 2026 results showed net income of KRW 1,622.6 billion (+9% YoY) with improved profitability (ROE 11.9%, ROTCE 13.4%), operating profit before expense +11%, driven by NII (+5.9%) and non‑interest income (+26.5%).
  • Positive Sentiment: Capital actions include an estimated CET1 ~13.19%, a Q1 cash dividend of KRW 741 per share, and a KRW 700bn buyback program (initial ~KRW 4.3bn completed) with retired shares, and management says excess capital from efficiency gains will be returned in principle.
  • Negative Sentiment: Asset‑quality and provisioning pressures persist — credit costs rose 17.5% YoY (credit cost ratio 46bps), group NPL coverage fell ~12.4ppt to about 110% (bank target 150%) with elevated substandard/project‑finance exposures, indicating potential for further provisioning or write‑offs.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Subsidiary mix was mixed — securities earnings surged ~167% YoY on brokerage/trading strength while card earnings declined 14.9% due to one‑offs; management plans a phased non‑bank improvement (capital markets through 2026, then credit finance) to lift non‑bank ROC.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Shinhan Financial Group Q1 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Good afternoon. This is Park Chulwoo, Head of IR or Investor Relations. Thank you for taking time to join Shinhan Financial Group's earnings presentation for the first quarter of 2026. Joining us today are Group CFO Jang Jonghoon, Group CSO Koh Seok-hun, Chief AI Digital Officer Choi Hyuk-jae, Group CRO Na Hoon, Shinhan Bank CFO Kang Yonghoon, Shinhan Card CFO Lee Jongbin, Shinhan Securities CFO Lee Jaesung, and Shinhan Life CFO Joo Sung Han. We look forward to your active interest and participation. Today's session will begin with a presentation on the group's first quarter 2026 financial results by our Group CFO, followed by a Q&A session. With that, let me invite Mr. Jang to begin his presentation.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Good afternoon. This is Jang Jonghoon, CFO of Shinhan Financial Group. Thank you for joining our earnings presentation for the first quarter of 2026. On Pages two and three of the presentation, I will walk you through our newly announced corporate value-up plan, which was disclosed earlier today. In July 2024, we introduced our value-up plan with three key targets referred to as 10/50/50, and have been executing various initiatives with strong momentum to achieve these goals. As a result, we achieved our 50% shareholder return target ahead of schedule, while also delivering meaningful improvement in PBR, demonstrating both the effectiveness of our strategy and the strength of our execution. In addition, with ongoing tax reforms related to dividend income and continued government efforts to revitalize the capital market, we thought it is now an appropriate time to comprehensively review our existing plan.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Accordingly, under the leadership of our Board of Directors, we have upgraded our existing value plan, now branded as Shinhan Value Up 3.0 Plus, incorporating the current market environment and our strategic direction. Previously announced value-up plans by financial holding companies largely focused on setting absolute targets at specific points in time to address under-valuation driven by low shareholder returns, or maximizing shareholders' return by opting for full return in case of excess of target. However, we believe it is now time to transition to a new value creation framework that includes not only predictable shareholder return policies, but also a sustainable growth story. Rather than simply returning excess capital or targeting specific numerical threshold, our goal is to establish a sustainable value enhancement framework where shareholder returns and corporate growth are organically aligned, supported by a strong capital base.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Based on this, we have established three new key strategic objectives. First is achieving an ROE of 10%+. We are targeting an ROE that exceeds our cost of equity with a focus on delivering faster improvement. Given our current business portfolio, we expect this to improve at a notably rapid pace. Building on the bank's strong recurring earnings base will strengthen our non-banking competitiveness in a phased manner, focusing capital markets through 2026 and on credit finance business thereafter, and manage our ROE within the 10%-12% range through 2028. In particular, based on Shinhan's proprietary PBR ROC logic tree detailed in our Value-Up materials, we will enhance capital efficiency by simultaneously managing capital ratios, improving profitability across our subsidiaries through a set of granular action plans. Second, a total shareholder return ratio of 50%+.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

We have removed our upper cap on shareholder returns rate, while introducing an intuitive formula that takes into account both ROE rate and, based on principles of capital allocation based on our required return rate. Through this approach, we believe investors will be able to more easily anticipate both direction and level of shareholders' return policy alongside the company's growth. However, in periods such as the present, where our ROE remains below COE, we adhere to a principle of gradually increasing shareholder return ratio on a year-over-year basis. We also refined the comprehensive shareholder returns, taking into full account recent tax reforms related to dividend and investor preferences. While maintaining our current equal quarterly dividend policy and a gradual increase in both DPS and total dividend amount, we plan to prioritize the use of tax-exempt dividend resources subject to approval at the March Annual General Meeting this year.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

For your reference, our DPS for the next three years will continue to grow by more than 10%, and the allocation between dividend and shareholder buyback will be determined based on a rational framework rather than current returns, and will continue to communicate transparently with the market regarding progress toward our previously announced target of reducing 50 million treasury shares. Third is maintaining a CET1 ratio of 13%+. We'll secure a sufficient capital buffer to account for macroeconomic volatility and maintain stable capital ratio under all conditions. In addition, any excess capital generated through improvement in capital efficiency, including RWA optimization, will be returned to shareholders in principle. Furthermore, under the oversight of the Board of Directors, we'll annually analyze and review DPS.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Against our target, continue to update our three-year guidance and actively communicate the results to the market. Let me now turn to our financial results for the first Q of 2026. Turning to Page four is the business highlights. As of end of first Q 2026, the group CET1 ratio remains stable. We estimate at 13.19%, despite many uncertainties surrounding us. The group Board of Directors resolved to declare a cash dividend of KRW 741 per share for the first quarter of 2026. For reference, the record date for this cash dividend is April 30th. The shares must be purchased by April 28th to be eligible. Dividend schedule is to be paid by May 29. In addition, out of KRW 700 billion, one share buyback program schedule July 2026, with completion of 4.3 billion, and shares will be retired immediately upon the purchase.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Net income for the first quarter of 2026 amounted to KRW 1,622.6 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 9%, driven primarily by top line growth centered on non-interest income. Supported by the group's strong financial fundamentals and disciplined capital adequacy management, both ROE and ROTCE improved, reaching 11.9% and 13.4%, up by 0.5 percentage points respectively. Please refer to the key indicators that measure the group's shareholder value. Turning to Page six on capital. The group CET1 ratio declined by a total of 68 basis points due to RWA growth and also shareholder returns. However, it was managed at a more stable level, reflecting a decline of just 16 basis points relative to the end of last year. Group RWA increased by KRW 7.3 trillion due to asset growth and KRW 3.1 trillion due to foreign exchange movement, but remained well within our planned range.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Going forward, we'll continue to ensure stable capital ratios through efficient internal optimization and strategic resource allocation, while fulfilling our role in providing necessary funding to the real economy. Please refer to Page seven for a breakdown of assets and liabilities. Now, operating profit before expense for the first quarter increased by 11% year-on-year, supported by solid net interest income and significant growth in non-interest income, which I will now explain in greater detail. Group net interest income increased by 5.9% year-on-year, as NIM improved and interest income from securities increased significantly. Bank NIM improved by 2 basis points quarter-on-quarter as loan yields increased in line with rising market interest rates, and funding costs were well managed.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

For loans in won, although we saw a decline in household loans due to regulations, overall Korean won loans increased by 1.4% year-to-date as we strengthen our role in providing productive financing to corporate borrowers. Onto non-interest income. Group non-interest income increased by 26.5% year-over-year, with strong performance in fee income and broad-based improvement across other segments. Fee income performed well across most categories, excluding investment banking fees, which declined due to a high base effect from the prior year. In particular, brokerage fees increased by 215.2% year-over-year, driven by strong equity market activity, leading overall growth. Fees related to fund sales and bancassurance also increased by 54.7% year-over-year, continuing their upward trend in line with government policies to promote capital market development.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Gains on securities declined in bond-related income due to the recent sharp rise in market interest rates, but was offset by valuation gains on other securities. Insurance-related profit also increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and we expect to maintain stable earnings through disciplined management of CSM. Next on to SG&A credit costs. Group SG&A expenses increased by 10.4% year-on-year due to higher education tax, despite ongoing cost efficiency efforts across our subsidiaries, including different business segments. However, with operating profit increasing significantly, the cost income ratio declined slightly to 36.7%, remaining at a stable level. Credit costs for the first quarter increased by 17.5% year-on-year, driven mainly by higher recurring credit costs, including increased write-offs at the bank and some emergence of corporate non-performing exposure.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

It is somewhat encouraging that one-off credit costs related to real estate project financing have stabilized as a result of our preemptive and conservative provisioning in prior periods. Amid continued uncertainty driven by high interest rates and elevated FX levels and ongoing geopolitical risk, the credit cost ratio increased by 5 basis points year-on-year to 46 basis points. However, we will continue to manage credit costs rigorously with our full-year target range of mid 40 basis points. Onto NPL. The group NPL coverage ratio declined by 12.4 percentage points compared to year-end, despite proactive write-offs and NPL sale policy and conservative provisioning. This was mainly due to an increase in substandard and below exposures, resulting from principal and interest payments related to project financing sites where Trust phase construction completion guarantee obligations had expired. These impacts, however, have already been factored in prior year credit costs.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Delinquency ratios for both the bank and the card business, which has been gradually improving, increased slightly in the quarter. However, the bank recorded the lowest level of net new delinquency in the industry. For card, the increase was driven by a reduction in total assets due to lending regulations and remains more than manageable. Given the continued economic slowdown, rising corporate credit risk, and ongoing challenges faced by vulnerable customer segments, we believe it will be important to maintain conservative asset quality management while providing timely and appropriate funding support. Regarding the fund for loss absorption capacity and charge-off activity, we will move on to subsidiary performance. The securities business delivered strong earnings growth of 167.4% year-on-year, driven by increased brokers' commissions from higher trading volume, improved prop trading income among strong capital market dynamics.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

The bank recorded 2.6% year-over-year growth in earnings, supported by net interest income, despite declines in security-related gains, higher credit costs, and the impact of increased education tax. The Card business saw a decline of 14.9% year-over-year, as improvements in operating revenue and credit costs were offset by one-off expenses related to voluntary retirement programs. For Shinhan Capital, it recorded a significant improvement in earnings, driven by gains on securities, including dividend income supported by favorable market conditions. The Life Insurance business experienced weaker performance Y-o-Y due to higher loss ratios, leading to increased insurance various loss, and a decline in insurance finance income from rising market interest rates. As mentioned earlier, beginning with this earnings release, we are providing additional disclosure of quarterly net income, RWA, and return on capital by segment for your reference.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Page 15, we have detailed information on our Overseas business performance, which continued to demonstrate differentiated growth. Pages 16 and 17 provide updates on our digital initiatives and ESG. From page 19, you will find detailed financial statements at the subsidiary level, funding and asset liability management as well. This concludes our presentation. Thank you very much.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Now we will begin Q&A session. If you have any questions, please use the Raise Hand function on your Zoom. We will accept first question. Can you hear me? Yes. From NH Investment & Securities, Mr. Jeong Jun-seop.

Jeong Jun-seop
Analyst at NH Investment & Securities

This is Jeong Jun-seop from NH Investment & Securities. Thank you for the opportunity to ask some questions. Actually, I have two. First, regarding your corporate value enhancement program, thank you very much for your thoughtful program. Now, productive finance is being promoted by the government, and there were some announcements by the government to ease capital requirements. If those eased requirements are applied, how much of an improvement will there be, say, in terms of your CET1?\

Jeong Jun-seop
Analyst at NH Investment & Securities

In terms of the improvement, is it available to fund shareholder returns? For example, to regulatory authorities, the point of easing the requirement would be to direct more towards productive financing to, say, 13.4%, so excess capital beyond 13%. How can you use that excess capital? The second question, you did mention your value-up plans. I think it's on Page 16 of your slides. There is an internal limit in terms of internal return. Cost of equity, PBR. I see you said you're going to use the ROE, PBR logic. What is your internal hurdle terms of internal return. Cost of equity, PBR. I see you said you're going to use the ROE, PBR logic. What is your rate in terms of expected returns? Your implied returns?

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Yes. Thank you very much for the questions. Please hold just for a moment as we prepare the answers.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Regarding the first question regarding the easing of capital requirements, our Group CRO will take that first, and then the remainder, I think I will be able to follow up on.

Na Hoon
Na Hoon
Group CRO at Shinhan Financial Group

Yes, I'm the Group CRO. You mentioned productive financing, and rationalization of capital requirements by the authorities. From a market risk perspective, retained earnings and equity contribution, for example, will be included in the scope. We're still in the process of seeking approval from the authorities, so it is pending, and depending on the result, it may have an impact, but 10 basis points or so improvement we think is possible in terms of our CET1. Then operational risk. Exemptions in terms of count RWA.

Na Hoon
Na Hoon
Group CRO at Shinhan Financial Group

Things are quite fluid at the moment regarding approval at the Board level and the regulatory authority's position. Market and operational RWA combined, I think maybe we can see about 20 basis points or more in upside in our CET1.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Let me take the remainder of the questions. Like we have heard, 20 basis point or more, potentially, we can see that kind of improvement. Like you said, well, in terms of our value plan, we actually explained there. We have been seeing some fluctuation quarter-on-quarter. Net max 36 basis points or so. Yes. That variance actually was quite wide at around 36 basis points. While we say 13%+, in the DBS model, our peers. Maybe from 13.0% to 14.4%, maybe we will not see additional returns within that range.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Toward the end of the year, we'll look at the balance between growth and shareholder return. We will have to make some internal decision-making between the two sides. Perhaps at the end of this year, it will be factored into our growth plan as well as our shareholder return policy as well. Regarding our internal hurdle, so for the first quarter, well, the closing of the accounts was done in February. We mentioned at that conference call that 9.1% is our tangible ROE, and we want to grow our net income by more than 10%. That was our guidance. In terms of our internal hurdle, this is about the additional incremental returns. PBR is 0.8, and COE and ROE, well, our target ROE is 10%. That said, our internal marginal return, it will be slightly higher than the inverse, which is 12.5%.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

That is our internal view anyway. Our company-wide ROE is still below COE slightly, so we are looking at things more cautiously. Until we see more of a normalized phase, we are looking to gradually increase shareholder returns. That is already incorporated in our value plan. Yes, usually, I don't comment about the finance part, but I'm in charge of strategy for the Shinhan Financial Group. Regarding productive finance, I do lead our initiatives. The first question by Mr. Jeong, you talked about shareholder return. If we could use that increase in CET1 toward shareholder return. The purpose or the intention behind easing of the regulations was not for the purpose of returning more to shareholders. It was, in principle, meant to be directed more toward productive financing.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

In principle, we should be aligned to the purpose behind the easing. It should be more toward growth so that it can be used to fund productive financing. We do believe that is consistent with the intention. Of course, it's not always very clean cut each time. We will look at the overall situation from a more comprehensive view, as was explained by our CFO.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

I hope that was a sufficient answer. We will move on to the next question, please. From HSBC, Mr. Won Jaewoong, please go ahead.

Jaewoong Won
Jaewoong Won
Analyst at HSBC

Regarding shareholder return. Thank you for giving very careful thought and for providing a very refined program. I have two questions about that. First, in the formula, what is the definition of growth? I'd like to know. Because, is it capital growth or RWA growth?

Jaewoong Won
Jaewoong Won
Analyst at HSBC

Depending on which it is, it can actually mean a big difference in numbers for TSR. If ROE is 9.5%, RWA growth target is between 4%-5%, and capital growth target, I think on average it's about 3%. Actually, the range is quite big. Between the two, what do you mean exactly when you say growth? It will help us in our projections if you give us more color. Now, I'm thinking that perhaps that in the fourth quarter, you might announce a decision about how to use the available amount. For this year, what should we expect? Will we have to use a different formula at mid-year? In terms of timing of actual application of this formula, could you give us more color when exactly it will start to be applied?

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Okay, thank you very much. We will ask you to hold as we prepare the answer.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Regarding the first question, like you said, we are thinking hard about what you pointed out. If we deep dive a little bit, we came up with this formula because CET1. One assumption was that we maintain the CET1, and then the capital growth in inverse, it comes out to the TSR. That's the formula. Maintaining CET1 means that relative to RWA growth, capital growth actually has to be bigger. Capital growth then can be a main factor. Then temporarily, if RWA, will it be 3% growth or 7% growth? It can depend. We want more stability, and probably we will find the more stable of the two.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Your concern is that the average growth of capital, we're not using that 2% or 3%, but within, there will be a capital adjustment. There are different buffers that will be removed, and we're looking at pure capital growth. Something between 4%-5%, we think that will be the level. That means that our RWA growth, we will obviously try to maintain that growth within that range, 4%-5%. We added plus alpha because if we have more upside available, then we can add on potentially, which is why we have that plus in the formula. In the most typical example, target ROE and our target growth. By growth, we mean capital growth or RWA growth. I use the word or. Capital growth or RWA growth. I think ultimately both will converge within the 4%-5% band.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Within the next few years, TSR will likely be within the 50%-60% range. That is what is incorporated in the plan. Now, in terms of the timing of application, like I said, possibly within the fourth quarter, we will probably share our consensus view with you. At that time, we will look at the growth, pricing, margin profile, CCR, and we'll share. I think this will also come up naturally in that context. Based on our business plan, as we have said, for this year anyway, if we apply this as is, CET1 is 9.1%. ROTCE is lower than COE. That means TSR should be higher than last year. That's one. RWA growth and capital growth, when we did the calculation, as shown in the example, it's about 5.1% or so.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

CET1, the plan was to lower the CET1 by about eight basis points. This converts to about a 4% impact in terms of the shareholder return ratio. For this year, 50.2%+ alpha and the max 53%, I think likely it will be somewhere in between that range. That is our internal calculation.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Well, I hope that answered your question. We will now go to the next question. If you have any questions, please use the raise hand function in your Zoom. iM Securities, Seol Yong-jin, please go ahead with your question.

Seol Yong-jin
Analyst at iM Securities

Yes. Thank you very much. Now, one question I have is that I think you can become issuer in your securities company. What is your anticipated return rate or profitability objectives, and the issued amount?

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Please hold while we prepare for your answer. I think Shinhan Securities' CFO can answer your question.

Lee Jaesung
CFO at Shinhan Securities

I'm Lee Jaesung, CFO of Shinhan Securities. Thank you very much for the question. At the year-end, we got licensed as an issuer. In February, we start the issuance, and currently about KRW 240 billion has been issued. For this year, I think to make it as a stable vehicle in terms of issue size and volume, we would like to keep in control. I target currently, let's say for year one, about return rate of 100 basis points is our plan.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Okay. Hope that answered your question. Now we will accept next question. If you have any question, again, please use the raise hand function in your Zoom. Analyst Kim Do-ha from Hanwha Securities, please. Yes. Please unmute yourself.

Kim Do-ha
Analyst at Hanwha Securities

I'm sorry about that. In terms of assets soundness, NPL coverage ratio is 110% for the holding company. It is quite lower than before. Up to now, delinquencies don't appear to have entered the improvement cycle yet. Regarding your added NPL burden, do you need to do additional provisioning expense? For example, petrochemical companies, there are concerns about the lagging effect from that sector. In terms of your asset quality and the burden in terms of additional provisioning, what is the view? I also have two very simple questions as well. For the next three years, tax-exempt dividends will be a priority you said. You have KRW 9.9 trillion available for distribution, but it won't be used all at once. Are you going to leave some?

Kim Do-ha
Analyst at Hanwha Securities

For AOCI, our capital appears a bit improved, but because of the rising interest rates, I thought that it would go down because of valuation losses. Maybe it's because of your life’s business. Could you just explain the duration gap?

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Okay, thank you for the question. Please hold just one moment as we prepare the answer. Yes.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Regarding the first question regarding assets down there Our group CRO will cover that. Regarding the tax expense distributions, I will explain. Number three, regarding the duration gap, we'll hear from the Shinhan Life side. The group CRO will begin.

Na Hoon
Na Hoon
Group CRO at Shinhan Financial Group

Yes, thank you for the good question. First, regarding the NPL coverage ratio, the 0.81% is substandard or below for the group. Now, there has been an increase of KRW 40 billion-KRW 60 billion in NPL, and so the NPL coverage ratio did go down about 12.4 percentage points from last year. It's about 113%. If you look at the overall trajectory, credit cost for the group in 2022, prior to that spike in interest rates, we went through a very low rate environment. At that time, credit cost annually was below KRW 1 trillion. With rising interest rates starting in 2023, it started to see KRW 2 trillion.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

More recently, with the delayed recovery of the economic slowdown, we are seeing more increase in delinquency for the group overall, substandard or below or delinquency NPL. These indicators, actually, for the most part, are improving. Our goal is NPL coverage ratio of 150% as the bottom line for the bank. Then we will engage in selective write-off and sales, and to maintain asset quality. In terms of our current provisioning against our total loan portfolio, NPL coverage ratio, we want to maintain at above 110%. For tax-exempt dividends, at the time of planning, we said that we will provide a three-year guidance. For the next three years, that's what we mean by priority to tax-exempt dividends. If we have leftover resources, potentially, yes, we can consider other options as well.

Joo Sung-hwan
CFO at Shinhan Life

After the duration gap answer, if I have anything to add, I will try. I'm the CFO of Life, as of compared to end of December, interest rates have gone up by more than 40 basis points. As of December, duration gap was 0.2, so slight plus. As of the end of March, it's about 1, is what we expect. The duration gap actually is improving. Just to explain a little bit, I think you're asking about the capital adjustment. OCI valuation loss, yes, there was some loss, but in the past we had M&As and adjustment of consolidated entities. It's a mix, and overall, there is an overall offsetting effect among those factors.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Thank you very much. I think there's another question from JPMorgan Securities. If it's you, please go ahead.

Analyst at JPMorgan Securities

Yes, thank you for the opportunity to ask. I would like to ask about the tax-exempt dividends. I'm a little bit confused, so let me ask about that. 9 trillion or so have been transferred into retained earnings. And you said that with priority, they will be used for tax-exempt dividends. Do you mean that that full amount will be provided as tax-exempt cash dividends? Or is that also a mix of the separate taxation dividends as well? Separate taxation with the amendment of the tax clause, every year the cash dividend actually will have to be increased by 10% year-on-year to qualify. For tax-exempt dividends, do you assume that cash dividends can increase by more than 10% year-on-year? Is that the plan?

Analyst at JPMorgan Securities

The second question is, I think you said before that this year the capital market will likely be promoted, so you want to grow the Securities business, and also you will work on improving the card business as well. What is your target ROE for Securities and for your credit card business as well? When you think for the capital market, there has been a lot of activities among retail investors as well, so I can see why securities business might grow. But merchant fees are increasing and household loans are decreasing. So how do you expect to improve profitability for the credit Card business? So do you have a certain strategy in mind that you could share with us? Thank you.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Yeah. Thank you for the question. Please hold as we prepare to answer.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Yes, regarding the first question, just to clarify, as you said, for this year anyway, as you know, we had the AGM in March to approve the capital reduced dividend. Well, actually, we cannot do the tax exemption dividend yet. Only upon closing can we do that at the end of the year. For this year, first and second, third quarter, we will be subject to separate taxation. Next year, post account closing at the end of the year, we will then move on to tax-exempt dividends. Three years going forward, we will do full tax-exempt dividends. There is a three-year grace period for separate taxation. We gave some thought to what would happen after the grace period was finished, but there were high expectations among investors for tax-exempt dividends.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

As much as possible, we wanted to continue to provide that. Because it's tax-exempt, obviously, that means we don't necessarily have to increase cash dividends by 10% or more every year. A 10% threshold is on the size of the dividend, whereas what we are talking about now is EPS, that we want to increase EPS by 10% year-on-year, which is more strongly perceived by the investors. We think net income is likely to grow by more than 10% this year. Naturally, then EPS likely is also to grow by that much as well. On top of that, of course, we will continue to do share buybacks and cancellations. When that is considered, even if we increase EPS by 10% or more, as we do tax-exempt dividends, we're very confident that we can increase EPS by 10% or more.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

We're very confident, which is why we include it in our announcement. Regarding the Securities business, the brokerage business, you will know, but the brokerage business before, maybe 10 years ago, was always last. Now, as you know, the ROE has improved significantly for the security sector overall. For us, securities usually is about KRW 5.8 trillion in terms of capital base. ROE, I think, is likely going to exceed that this year. Now we are working to make sure that that is sustainable. Regarding credit specialized finance, you said that you're not convinced. When we talk about the credit card performance, we thought that this year it's down by about KRW 20 billion year-on-year. In the first quarter, we already had some impact from the voluntary retirement. We did mention the non-recurring earnings.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

If we see those earnings coming through, we're contemplating different options, and there are different stakeholder interests involved, so we are cautious. We did hint that we will look at making the composition between cost and earnings more efficient. As we do that throughout the year, while performance will not dramatically increase, so we think underlying foundation or the fundamentals can gradually improve. Our approach is that we will see gradual improvement of the performance. I hope that was a full answer.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

From Mirae Asset, we have Mr. Tae Joon Jeong. Please go ahead.

Tae Joon Jeong
Analyst at Mirae Asset

Well, good afternoon. I'm Tae Joon Jeong from Mirae Asset Securities. I do have two questions. First is the rate is actually growing up, and this is resulting in different situations. What's your guidance going forward on that point? Is my first question. My second question is, 34% or above, you said you're going to return it immediately. At year-end, if it's going to exceed that threshold, then for the exit, that may be bought back next year. Is that correct understanding?

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

So please hold while we prepare for your answer.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Yes. On your first question, Bank CFO can answer. On the second question, I will answer that.

Kang Yonghoon
CFO at Shinhan Bank

Good afternoon. I am Kang Yoonghoon, CFO. First, NIM, if I may share with you, for the first Q NIM is 1.6% compared to previous quarter, it increased by 5 basis points. It's improvement by 2 basis points because of the market situation improvement and favorable conditions formed in the market. Since the latter half of last year, we focused on profit-oriented growth. I think that also helped. What will happen to market rate, to give you some projections. Now, currently, the domestic economy is not really doing well, meaning there are some downward pressure on the rate, but if you consider inflation and expected rate, there's not much room to move upward or downward. That's our anticipation.

Kang Yonghoon
CFO at Shinhan Bank

Neutrally, we believe that market rate will continue as is, and under that estimation, very profitable, high-quality, asset-oriented productive finance can be expanded, and that could also help increase our liquidity. That resulting in improvement in NIM, and we'll do our best to achieve that. In summary, NIM will maintain the current level, or we will try best even to improve that. In the beginning, about the second question, from 13.0%-13.4% is the range that we'll be managing. But if it existed, is it going to be given out? Not really. If it goes be-

Kang Yonghoon
CFO at Shinhan Bank

Beyond that range, if it's excess amount, of course, it needs to return to our shareholders. Except in planning any room for excess growth or as I said before, in marginal internal return rate, we are very cautious, but ours is a bit higher than the market COE. By year-end or beginning of next year, how to utilize that decision will be, in other words, will be made at that time. But as our international peers, they don't automatically return excess because it exceeded 13.5%. If it's like excess, significant increase, then the logic is to give it within few years. Basically, our philosophy is as we keep repeating ourselves, the most important thing is ROE. If the ROE increases, then of course return rate would naturally go up in terms of also size.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Through the growth efficiency, we will also focus on maximizing shareholders return, and we can commit to that.

Tae Joon Jeong
Analyst at Mirae Asset

Thank you very much for that answer.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Park from Goldman Sachs, please go ahead with your question.

Sinyoung Park
Sinyoung Park
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Yes, this is Sinyoung Park from Goldman Sachs Securities. Regarding ROE, I had some additional questions for you. Ultimately, as you said, ROE has to grow in order for the shareholder return ratio and the total size of shareholder returns to grow. In the materials, I think you're saying 10%-12% is your target range for ROE over the next three years. Bank versus non-bank. Well, bank will be maintaining status quo, non-bank based on ROC is targeting an improvement by about three to 4 percentage points, which is actually quite a sizable improvement, I would say.

Sinyoung Park
Sinyoung Park
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

What would be the main drivers that allow you to improve it by that much? Will it be about improving asset quality? Or what kind of improvement in profitability do you expect or are you planning?

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

As you've seen in the materials, for non-bank, so non-banking has been a strength of our group for many years. I think we're past the rough patch where it was challenged. The non-bank ROC, why do we expect it to improve? Well, of course, there will be some impact on the market. Brokerage, of course, is very active for the groups with security arms. In that case, the ROC, ROE obviously will improve.

Sinyoung Park
Sinyoung Park
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Well, to what extent will it improve?

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

I talked about how we expect fast improvement because the securities firms of other peer groups are already at a high level, and so while they can grow the overall size of their net income, they're already at a higher level, whereas we start from a lower end. For securities, ROC, we're not thinking about just 10%, but we think that we will be able to achieve quite a significant jump in terms of absolute ROC. Bank and securities will be the two leading pillars. That said, of course, top line plus profitability, given current conditions, of course, is not very easy. For us, the two big directions are like this. I mentioned how we want a phased and gradual approach. For this year, we will focus on acquiring more customers because ultimately they translate into the bottom line for our business.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Internally, we are preparing for fast customer acquisition. Then in a more direct sense, it's ultimately about cost efficiency. As I said, it's about fundamentally changing the structure to make the cost structure more efficient to strengthen our fundamentals, our funding cost going down and provisioning improving. We can't just blindly expect that to happen because the situation is more challenging. It will not happen just on its own. We have to make the cost structure more efficient. When there are one-offs in terms of the top line, where there is upside, we will direct that to improve our underlying fundamentals. EPS, allowing that we can contemplate potentially M&As. If that is not required, we can actually do bold consolidation of our business portfolio as well. We are looking at various options in a broad sense.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

I hope that was a sufficient answer for you. Yes. I think we have from WhiteOak Capital, a question from Mr. Shane Mathews. Please go ahead.

Shane Mathews
Analyst at WhiteOak Capital,

Thank you for the opportunity and congratulations on the results. Just one question. Wanted to confirm the group level NPL coverage, is it targeted at 110% now? If that's the case, when we look at pre-2019 levels, the coverage levels were maybe 20, 30 percentage point at least higher. Why consider operating at a lower coverage level now versus before? What is the change in thinking at this point in time?

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Yes. Thank you for the question. Please hold as we prepare the answer.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Yes. This should be answered by the Group CRO, and I will add if required at the end.

Na Hoon
Na Hoon
Group CRO at Shinhan Financial Group

Yes, I'm the Group CRO. Regarding credit costs, when I was explaining about that, from a long perspective, I talked about credit cost trends. In 2022, after we saw that spike in interest rates, the real estate market was not good, and credit costs among all financial groups actually was quite elevated and poor. NPL in the write-offs and sale market, there's a lot of supply recently, so pricing actually is not good. Write-offs and sales, it's not very active at the moment either. Real estate market, in order for it to recover, until that time, we need some time to sort out the exposure. Until then, we do believe that the NPL coverage ratio is likely to be a bit lower than in the past.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Depending on how fast the market stabilizes and market interest rate, if we're able to push the write-offs and sales more, that can have the effect of improving our NPL coverage ratio. Let me just add a little bit. For us, 110%, it is lower for us at the group level. The bank, it's about 150%. We expect to continue to maintain 150% for the bank. Why 110%? We have Shinhan Asset Trust. That was the main reason. Through litigation or trust, we incorporated it onto our books. We have already recognized the necessary provisions, though. Until the assets are liquidated and sold off, it will be captured and booked as NPL. The absolute number is quite substantial, which is the main factor why our group NPL coverage is down to 110%. We will have to see how the real estate property market develops going forward.

Jang Jonghoon
Jang Jonghoon
Group CFO at Shinhan Financial Group

Even if we have to sell at a certain discount, as we recover NPL, it will take a year or two years maybe, which is why in the short-term, our target is set lower at 110%.

Cheol Woo Park
Cheol Woo Park
Head of Investor Relations at Shinhan Financial Group

Thank you very much. I hope that was a sufficient answer. Time has passed quite a lot, so if you have any additional questions, there seems to be no more questions. With this, we would like to conclude Shinhan Financial Group's earnings call for the Q1 2026. Replay of today's presentation will be available on our website and Shinhan Financial Group IR YouTube channel. If you have any further questions regarding today's results or new Value Up plan, it's all disclosed on our website. Please, you can reference that. Of course, if you have any additional questions, please contact our IR team. With that, we will see you at the next earnings call. Thank you.

Executives
    • Cheol Woo Park
      Cheol Woo Park
      Head of Investor Relations
    • Jang Jonghoon
      Jang Jonghoon
      Group CFO
    • Na Hoon
      Na Hoon
      Group CRO
Analysts
    • Jaewoong Won
      Analyst at HSBC
    • Jeong Jun-seop
      Analyst at NH Investment & Securities
    • Joo Sung-hwan
      CFO at Shinhan Life
    • Kang Yonghoon
      CFO at Shinhan Bank
    • Kim Do-ha
      Analyst at Hanwha Securities
    • Lee Jaesung
      CFO at Shinhan Securities
    • Seol Yong-jin
      Analyst at iM Securities
    • Shane Mathews
      Analyst at WhiteOak Capital,
    • Sinyoung Park
      Analyst at Goldman Sachs
    • Tae Joon Jeong
      Analyst at Mirae Asset
    • Analyst at JPMorgan Securities
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