Advantage Energy Q4 2025 Earnings Report

Advantage Energy EPS Results

• Actual EPS: C$0.06
• Consensus EPS: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Advantage Energy Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $169.03 million
• Expected Revenue: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Advantage Energy Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2025
• Date: 3/5/2026
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Friday, March 6, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Advantage Energy (TSE:AAV) Ltd supplies clean, affordable, reliable, and sustainable Canadian energy to power the needs of Canada and the world. It is focused on the development and delineation of its Montney natural gas and liquids resource at Glacier, Wembley/Pipestone, Valhalla, and Progress, Alberta.

Advantage Energy Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Record operations: Advantage reported a record annual production of 78,267 BOE/d (highest in 25 years) and 28% year-over-year liquids growth, with liquids representing 48% of revenue despite being 16% of volumes.
• Positive Sentiment: Strong cash generation and disciplined allocation: Adjusted funds flow was CAD 382M (CAD 2.29/sh), with CAD 76M used to reduce debt and CAD 287.7M to development capital, and management will prioritize free cash flow to hit a CAD 400–500M debt target (expected H2 2026).
• Positive Sentiment: Risk management and market diversification: The company expanded long‑term downstream transportation (~60 MMcf/d), implemented significant hedges through 2028, and used temporary curtailments (up to 300 MMcf/d) to protect cash flow during very weak AECO pricing.
• Positive Sentiment: Near-term growth efficiency: The 75 MMcf/d Progress gas plant is on track for Q2 commissioning and Advantage expects ~90,000 BOE/d average production from Q3 2026 through end‑2027 with no additional infrastructure spend, implying highly efficient capital use.
• Positive Sentiment: Entropy/CCS progress: Glacier Phase 2 CCS is expected to complete around mid‑2026, fully funded by partners, and Advantage (just under 50% working interest) will benefit from project EBITDA without contributing capital.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Advantage Energy Limited year-end 2025 results conference call. At this time, all lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. If at any time during this call you need assistance, please press star zero for the operator. This call is being recorded on Friday, March 6th, 2026. I would now like to turn the conference over to Brian Bagnell, Vice President. Please go ahead.

[Brian Bagnell, VP of Commodities and Capital Markets at Advantage Energy Limited]

Thank you, Joanna, welcome everybody to our conference call to discuss Advantage's year-end 2025 results. Before we get started, I'd like to refer you to the advisories on forward-looking statements contained in the news release, as well as advisories contained in Advantage's MD&A and annual information form, both of which are available on SEDAR and on our website. I'll also note that we posted an updated corporate presentation to our website. I'm here with Mike Belenkie, President and CEO of Advantage, Craig Blackwood, our CFO, as well as other members of our executive team. We'll start by speaking to some of our financial and operating highlights. Once Mike's finished, we'll pass it back to the operator for questions. As usual, we'd ask that if you have any detailed modeling questions that you follow up with us individually after the call.

[Brian Bagnell, VP of Commodities and Capital Markets at Advantage Energy Limited]

With that, I'll turn it over to Mike. Please go ahead.

[Mike Belenkie, President and CEO at Advantage Energy Limited]

Thanks, Brian, and thanks everyone for joining us today. 2025 was defined by record operational performance, strong capital efficiencies, and meaningful progress towards our long-term strategic objectives. Even during this volatile commodity environment, our business delivered exceptional results, demonstrating the strength of our asset base and the resilience of our operating model. Annual production averaged 78,267 BOEs per day, the highest in our 25-year history. Supported by strong well performance across all of our assets. Liquids production grew 28% year-over-year. Liquids revenue represented 48% of total revenue, despite representing just 16% of our production, reinforcing the high average quality of our liquids products and the value of our liquids diversification.

[Mike Belenkie, President and CEO at Advantage Energy Limited]

Advantage generated CAD 382 million in adjusted funds flow, or CAD 2.29 per share, with CAD 76 million applied to debt reduction and CAD 287.7 million applied to development capital. These results reflect our continued focus on capital efficiency, cost control, and maximizing cash flow per share. As we look back over the last year, there have been a few key themes. First theme is that we delivered the strongest operational outcomes we've had in our 25-year history. Our Montney drilling program delivered the top nine Alberta Montney gas wells of 2025, including what we believe to be the most productive well ever drilled in the Alberta Montney, with an IP30 of 4,567 BOEs per day. Every gas well we drilled was in the top 25 list.

[Mike Belenkie, President and CEO at Advantage Energy Limited]

To be clear, headline rates are great, but it's the corporate average that pays the bills. These uniformly strong outcomes, combined with our low cost structure, generated a 2.1 times recycle ratio on proved reserves, despite a very weak commodity price environment. When we say very weak, this was worse than a bottom decile price environment in 2025. We're very proud of our team for delivering these incredible results. The second theme of the year that despite one of the worst periods of AECO prices in history, we still generated significant free cash flow, thanks in part to our strong hedging program and diversification into both downstream gas markets and high-value liquids. Free cash flow was also supported by our price-sensitive production management.

[Mike Belenkie, President and CEO at Advantage Energy Limited]

At times of extremely low gas prices, we curtailed up to 300 million cu ft per day gas, averaging 2,600 BOEs per day of dry gas on an annualized basis shut-in. These curtailments reduced our declines, reduced depletion, and positively impacted adjusted funds flow by avoiding operating costs and deferring production until prices were stronger. This is consistent with our philosophy. If it won't increase our cash flow, we won't produce it. third theme of the year is that marketing strategy really matters. We further diversified away from AECO by adding nearly 60 million cu ft per day of long-term physical transportation service to downstream markets, including Ventura and Dawn. We've hedged a meaningful portion of our production out through 2028 to reduce cash flow volatility. Looking ahead, 2026 will be a pivotal year.

[Mike Belenkie, President and CEO at Advantage Energy Limited]

Our new 75 million cu ft per day Progress gas plant is on track for commissioning in Q2, once Progress and the Glacier turnaround are complete, we expect to enter a period of highly efficient capital spending and accelerating free cash flow. Beginning in the third quarter of this year, production is expected to average 90,000 BOEs per day through to the end of 2027. That's six quarters at about that level. Since there is no additional infrastructure spending required at this level, this program will be unusually efficient, with operating costs trending lower as more and more volumes will be flowing through our owned infrastructure. Disciplined capital allocation is one of our key guiding principles. Beyond 2027, we have a wealth of options for efficient future growth that mirror the efficiencies of our last five years.

[Mike Belenkie, President and CEO at Advantage Energy Limited]

The CAD 75 million a day Progress gas plant is modular and will be expanded without large lumps of capital. We own the currently idle Caribou gas plant, which has a capacity of 100 million cu ft per day, right next to our development-ready Conroy assets in Northeast BC. Both processing options, that's Caribou and Progress expansions, are unusually efficient. Pending some stability in commodity prices, we will announce what our 2028 to 2030 development plans look like. However, I want to make this very clear, we are not interested in growing for the sake of growth. Any future growth investment will be fully funded by cash flow and justified by full cycle returns with a supportive commodity price outlook in mind.

[Mike Belenkie, President and CEO at Advantage Energy Limited]

During times of volatility, as we are experiencing right now with geopolitical events and with local supply-demand imbalances, the right strategy is to focus on making short cycle time investments and scrutinizing every penny. As an example, we recently reduced our 2026 capital budget by CAD 20 million. Thanks to our continued strong well performance, our production guidance remains unchanged. Debt reduction remains a top priority. We will continue allocating substantially all free cash flow to debt reduction until we reach our debt target range of CAD 400 million-CAD 500 million. We expect that to happen in the second half year of 2026, so we're very close already. Thereafter, we will balance further debt reduction with opportunistic share buybacks. This will be consistent with our long-standing capital allocation framework. Finally, I want to highlight some progress at Entropy.

[Mike Belenkie, President and CEO at Advantage Energy Limited]

Construction of the Glacier Phase 2 CCS project is expected to be completed within months here, around mid-2026. This project will substantially decarbonize the Glacier facility and is fully funded entirely by Brookfield and the Canada Growth Fund. It represents a major milestone for Entropy and a meaningful step forward for commercial CCS globally. Although Advantage is not contributing any capital to the project, our working interest is now just under 50%, and we will benefit as partial owners from all EBITDA that's delivered by that project. With that, I'd like to thank our employees, our board, and our shareholders for their continued support, and I'll pass it back to Brian for questions.

[Brian Bagnell, VP of Commodities and Capital Markets at Advantage Energy Limited]

Thanks, Mike. Joanna, we'll go to the phone line to see if there are any questions and then, we'll check with you. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the one on your touch tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. If you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by the two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. One moment please for your first question. Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you have any questions, please press star one now. There appear to be no questions. I will turn the call back over to Brian Bagnell.

[Brian Bagnell, VP of Commodities and Capital Markets at Advantage Energy Limited]

Great. Thank you everybody for joining the call today. If you have any follow-up questions, please reach out following the call. Thank you.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating, we ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Participants

Executives

• Brian Bagnell, VP of Commodities and Capital Markets
• Mike Belenkie, President and CEO