Canfor Pulp Products Q4 2025 Earnings Report

Canfor Pulp Products EPS Results

• Actual EPS: -C$2.05
• Consensus EPS: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Canfor Pulp Products Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $140.20 million
• Expected Revenue: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Canfor Pulp Products Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q4 2025
• Date: 3/5/2026
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Friday, March 6, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 12:00PM ET

Canfor Pulp Products (TSE:CFX) Inc produces and sells northern bleached softwood kraft pulp, or NBSK pulp and paper. The company also generates and sells electricity from biomass out of its pulp plants in Western Canada. The firm organizes itself into two segments based on product: pulp and paper. The pulp segment generates most of the revenue. Canfor Pulp's NBSK pulp customers are typically manufacturers of tissue paper, specialty paper, and printing and writing paper. Most of Canfor Pulp's revenue comes from Asia. The majority of the company's shares are owned by Canfor Corporation.

Canfor Pulp Products Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Canfor emphasized a multi-year strategic transformation — including the closure of 9 high‑cost sawmills (2 in 2025) totalling 2.3 billion board feet and targeted investments in the US South and Sweden to diversify assets and reduce exposure to duties and constrained Canadian fiber.
• Negative Sentiment: Q4 financials were weak, with lumber Adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 8 million and Canfor Pulp Adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 17 million, and a significant CAD 214 million European asset write‑down (excluded from Adjusted EBITDA).
• Negative Sentiment: Canfor has agreed to acquire the remaining Canfor Pulp shares, noting Canfor Pulp ended Q4 with CAD 104 million net debt and only CAD 40 million liquidity, and warned the pulp business is highly likely to breach financial covenants in Q1 if the transaction does not complete.
• Neutral Sentiment: 2026 capital guidance totals about CAD 210 million (≈CAD 175m lumber, CAD 35m pulp), with roughly 40% discretionary spend; management intends to proceed with strategic rebuilds (e.g., Arkansas) but indicated some flexibility if markets deteriorate.
• Positive Sentiment: Management sees early signs of improvement — expecting European pricing support into Q2 from strained supply and noting firmer North American Southern Yellow Pine pricing after December downtime, while maintaining a constructive medium‑ to long‑term demand outlook for lumber.

Presentation

[Operator]

Good morning. My name is Carmen, and I will be your host today. Welcome to Canfor and Canfor Pulp's fourth quarter analyst call. At this time, all lines have been placed to mute to prevent any background noise. A question-and-answer session will be available after today's presentation. During this call, Canfor and Canfor Pulp's Chief Financial Officer will be referring to a slide presentation that is available in the investor relations section of the company's website. The companies would like to point out that this call will include forward-looking statements, so please refer to the press releases for the associated risk for such statements. I would now like to turn the meeting over to Susan Yurkovich, Canfor Corporation's President and Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, Susan.

[Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation]

Thank you Carmen, good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining the Canfor and Canfor Pulp Q4 2025 results conference call. I'll kick off with a few comments this morning before I turn things over to Stephen Mackie, Canfor's Chief Operating Officer and the CEO of Canfor Pulp, and Pat Elliott, Chief Financial Officer of Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp. I'm also joined by Kevin Pankratz, our Senior Vice President of Sales and Marketing for Canfor, and Brian Yuen, Vice President of Sales and Marketing for Canfor Pulp, who will be available to take questions as well. Before discussing our fourth quarter results, I just wanna highlight the significant transformation that Canfor has undertaken over the past several years.

[Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation]

Our strategy is focused on strengthening our operating platform to reduce the impact of elevated duties, further diversify our asset base and product operating offering, and improve our cost competitiveness. In that vein, since 2023, we've made the difficult but necessary decisions to close 9 high-cost sawmills, including 2 in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.3 billion board feet. At the same time, we've invested heavily in new facilities in the US South, expanded our operations in Sweden, and proactively managed our Canadian business in response to the challenges we're seeing accessing economic fiber in BC and elevated countervailing and anti-dumping duties, as well as the more recent Section 232 tariffs.

[Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation]

While 2025 was another challenging year, we have started to see the benefit of these strategic actions and that although the near-term uncertainty is likely to persist, Canfor is well-positioned to navigate the challenging markets supported by our high-quality, globally diversified operating platform. Looking ahead, we continue to believe the medium to long-term lumber demand fundamentals remain strong, and the improvements to our asset base will enable us to capitalize on stronger market dynamics going forward. Finally, notwithstanding the current market uncertainty, we have maintained a strong balance sheet and have the flexibility to pursue strategic growth should the right opportunities present themselves, although we will continue to remain patient and disciplined in our approach. I'd now like to turn it over to Stephen to provide an overview of Canfor Pulp.

[Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation]

Thanks, Susan. Good morning, everyone. Canfor Pulp continues to be impacted by weak global pulp and paper markets, with ongoing trade disputes and broader economic uncertainty contributing to elevated inventory levels and weak pricing through much of 2025 and continuing into 2026. Against a challenging market backdrop, we continue to focus on achieving targeted cost reductions and improving our operating performance. While we have made some progress on identified initiatives in recent months, weak market conditions continue to weigh on our financial results and available liquidity, with results in the fourth quarter further impacted by scheduled maintenance downtime at Northwood. Notwithstanding the pending transaction with Canfor Pulp's management team remains committed to mitigating the impact of global trade dynamics and economic uncertainty by closely managing factors within our control.

[Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation]

This includes managing our balance sheet, preserving available liquidity, and continually assessing our operating footprint based on our cost structure, availability of economically viable fiber, and market demand. We'll now turn it over to Pat to provide an overview of our financial results.

[Pat Elliott, CFO at Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp]

Thanks, Steve. Morning, everyone. In my comments this morning, I'll speak to our fourth quarter financial highlights, a summary which is included in our overview slide presentation as always in the investor relations section of Canfor's website. Our lumber business generated an Adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 8 million in the fourth quarter, CAD 6 million lower than the prior quarter. These results continued to reflect weak lumber market conditions, particularly for Southern Yellow Pine, as well as lower sales realizations in Canada following the introduction of Section 232 tariffs in the fourth quarter. Our European lumber business generated Adjusted EBITDA of CAD 42 million in 2025. However, weak demand and elevated log costs have contributed to losses in recent quarters.

[Pat Elliott, CFO at Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp]

Given ongoing cost pressures in the region, we recorded a $214 million asset write-down and impairment charge in the fourth quarter, which has been excluded from our Adjusted EBITDA. Looking ahead, we have started to see improvements in our underlying cost structure in Sweden and remain well positioned to navigate the current market challenges. While we expect European demand to remain relatively flat in the first quarter, strained lumber supply across the region is anticipated to support higher pricing heading into the second quarter. In North America, industry-wide downtime in December has contributed to stronger lumber pricing to start the year, particularly for Southern Yellow Pine. Although near-term volatility is expected to persist, our lumber business is well-positioned to navigate the current market dynamics, the transformation of our operating platform Susan previously mentioned.

[Pat Elliott, CFO at Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp]

Turning to our pulp business, Canfor Pulp reported Adjusted EBITDA loss of CAD 17 million in the fourth quarter, CAD 14 million lower than the prior quarter, reflecting the ongoing impact of weak global markets as well as scheduled maintenance at Northwood. Canfor Pulp ended the quarter with net debt of CAD 104 million and CAD 40 million of available liquidity. While Canfor, excluding Canfor Pulp and the duty loan completed in 2024, ended the fourth quarter with net debt of approximately CAD 226 million and available liquidity of CAD 1.2 billion. Looking ahead to 2026, we anticipate capital spend of approximately CAD 175 million in our lumber business with CAD 35 million for Canfor Pulp, inclusive of capitalized maintenance.

[Pat Elliott, CFO at Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp]

In addition, Canfor has also entered an agreement to acquire all of Canfor Pulp's issued and outstanding shares not already owned by the company and will receive the results of the shareholder vote later today. Following a write-down and impairment charge in the fourth quarter, it's highly probable that Canfor Pulp will reach its financial covenants in the first quarter, absent a successful transaction with Canfor. As Stephen mentioned, regardless of ownership structure, Canfor Pulp continues to review its underlying business as it looks to optimize and mitigate financial losses. Despite challenging market conditions and elevated capital spending in recent years, Canfor's balance sheet remains solid. With lower capital spending over the next several years, we believe our financial position provides flexibility to manage current market uncertainty and support potential strategic investments should the right opportunity arise. With that, we are now ready to take questions from analysts.

[Operator]

We will now take questions from financial analysts. If you have a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. If you would like to withdraw your question at any time, please press star one one again. One moment for our first question. That comes from the line of Ben Isaacson with Scotiabank. Please proceed.

[Ben Isaacson, Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

Good morning, thank you very much. Just a couple questions. First one, Susan, for you. Just in the lumber market in North America overall, since the last conference call, three months ago, have you seen an uptick in distressed assets and potential assets available for sale in the marketplace?

[Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation]

Well-

[Ben Isaacson, Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

If not, are you surprised by that?

[Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation]

Well, I think, you know, there's no question, Ben, that the elevated duties that we're all paying is it's a big challenge for every company. It's putting, you know, a lot of pressure on companies across the country as we, you know, 'cause those are cash deposits. You know, we know that that's a challenge. Have I done an inventory or I've asked all of our competitors exactly what their position is? No, but I know it's a challenge for us, and it's a challenge for everybody across the business.

[Ben Isaacson, Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

Thank you for that. Pat, for you, the CAD 210 million in 2026 CapEx guidance, I saw the split between lumber and pulp, but can you give a little bit more detail in terms of maintenance versus growth? Or maybe asking it in a different way, how much of that is discretionary?

[Pat Elliott, CFO at Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp]

Yeah. Ben, thanks. I think, we've already identified one project, the sawmill we bought in El Dorado, Arkansas. There's a rebuild going on there. There's a number of other sort of smaller, discrete projects within those. I'd say about 40% of the budget is on the discretionary side. The remainder is maintenance.

[Ben Isaacson, Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

Okay. But on that discretionary, I mean, that seems quite committed. There's really not an opportunity for a pullback if markets deteriorate. Is that fair to say?

[Pat Elliott, CFO at Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp]

Well, look, there's always opportunity to do that. I think we're committed to doing it. The balance sheet supports it. It's, you know, strategic, particularly in Arkansas as it relates to our facility there at Urbana as well and the synergies that come with doing it and kinda having two mills in that region. I think we are gonna proceed with it, but that's more of a choice.

[Ben Isaacson, Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

Understood. Just final question is on the pulp inventory days of about 47, I think you mentioned. Can you just give some historical context in terms of how much that has swung around in good times and bad?

[Pat Elliott, CFO at Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp]

Yeah. Ben, thanks for the question. I would say for sure inventories on the softwood side are well above the balance range. If you use historically, that range has been in the high 30s to mid-40s at most. Again, assuming that balance is, you know, in terms of a balance supply demand fundamental 40 days, we've got about a week's worth of inventory overhang sitting in the producer's hands. When you're talking about a 25 million ton market, that's about half a million tons in there.

[Ben Isaacson, Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank]

Understood. Thanks so much. Appreciate it.

[Operator]

Thank you. As a reminder to our financial analysts, if you do have a question, press star one one to get in the queue. Our next question comes from Hamir Patel with CIBC Capital Markets. Please proceed. Please check your mute button. Speakers, I do not hear any audio from Mr. Patel.

[Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation]

No, we can't hear, Hamir either.

[Operator]

Mr. Patel, if you can hear us, please press star 11 to get in the queue. Well, at this time, there are no further questions. I will turn the call back to Susan Yurkovich for any closing comments. Please go ahead, Susan.

[Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation]

Sure. Thanks, operator. Hamir, if you're having trouble with your phone, maybe just give us a call, and we'll try and help you out there. Thanks very much for joining us on today's call, and we'll see you next quarter.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Analysts

• Ben Isaacson, Equity Research Analyst at Scotiabank
• Pat Elliott, CFO at Canfor Corporation and Canfor Pulp
• Susan Yurkovich, President and CEO at Canfor Corporation