Keyera Q1 2026 Earnings Report

Keyera EPS Results

• Actual EPS: -C$0.53
• Consensus EPS: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Keyera Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.30 billion
• Expected Revenue: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Keyera Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2026
• Date: 5/14/2026
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, May 14, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 10:00AM ET

Keyera (TSE:KEY) is a midstream energy business that operates primarily out of Alberta, Canada. Its primary lines of business consist of the gathering and processing of natural gas in western Canada, the storage, transportation, and liquids blending for NGLS and crude oil, and the marketing of NGLs, iso-octane, and crude oil. The firm currently has interests in about a dozen active gas plants and operates over 4,000 km of pipelines.

Keyera Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Keyera successfully closed the Plains Canadian NGL business acquisition, which management says is a transformative deal that expands its integrated platform, strengthens cross-Canada connectivity, and should create significant synergies over time.
• Positive Sentiment: The company posted record first-quarter fee-for-service results, including record Gathering and Processing realized margin of CAD 118 million and strong Liquids Infrastructure margin of CAD 141 million, supported by record throughput at Wapiti and the condensate system.
• Neutral Sentiment: Adjusted EBITDA was CAD 232 million and distributable cash flow was CAD 133 million, while net earnings were a loss of CAD 122 million. Marketing results were weaker due to the AEF outage and related butane risk management activity.
• Positive Sentiment: Keyera reiterated confidence in its growth pipeline, saying the KFS Frac II debottleneck remains on schedule for completion by the end of June and is now expected to come in below budget, while Frac III and KAPS Zone 4 are also progressing on time and on budget.
• Neutral Sentiment: Management said the AEF facility is being repaired and should return to full operating capacity by the end of May, but reliability has been below expectations. The company plans to add a smaller planned outage between major turnarounds to improve maintenance and maximize iso-octane output.

Presentation

[Operator]

Morning. My name is Joelle, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Keyera's 2026 first quarter conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session.

[Operator]

If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star, then one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager, Investor Relations. You may begin.

[Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager, Investor Relations at Keyera]

Thanks, and good morning. Joining me today will be Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO; Eileen Marikar, Senior Vice President and CFO; Jamie Urquhart, Senior Vice President, Liquids Business Unit; and Brad Slessor, Senior Vice President, G&P and NGL Pipelines Business Unit. We will begin with some prepared remarks from Dean and Eileen, after which we will open the call to questions.

[Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager, Investor Relations at Keyera]

I'd like to remind listeners that some of the comments and answers that we will give today relate to future events. These forward-looking statements are given as of today's date and reflect events or outcomes that management currently expects. In addition, we will refer to some non-GAAP financial measures. For additional information on non-GAAP measures and forward-looking statements, please refer to Keyera's public filings available on SEDAR and on our website. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dean.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Thanks, Dan, and good morning, everyone. Two days ago, we successfully closed the acquisition of Plains' Canadian NGL business in its entirety. This is a transformative deal that materially expands Keyera's integrated platform. This transaction is a natural extension of our strategy to extend our integrated value chain. It enhances connectivity across our system and improves our ability to efficiently process, transport, and market products.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

For our customers, the combined platform provides improved access to key markets, greater flexibility, and increased reliability. It also represents an important step for Canada, bringing critical energy infrastructure under Canadian ownership. It enhances Canadian energy security, supports economic resilience, and establishes a stronger, more efficient cross-Canada NGL corridor. As previously disclosed, the Commissioner of Competition has filed an application with the Competition Tribunal in connection with the transaction.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

As you can appreciate, this matter is now before the tribunal, we're limited in what we can say about this process. We are confident in the strength of our case and excited to demonstrate to our shareholders and to our stakeholders the strategic rationale and the value creation that will result from this transaction. Our focus now is on integration and capturing the synergies of the expanded system.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Turning to our quarterly results. We continued to execute on our strategy, building a more connected and efficient system to support our customers and strengthen our platform. In Gathering and Processing, we delivered a new quarterly record for realized margin, driven by record throughput at Wapiti and contributions from our recently acquired interest in the Simonette East gas plants. We also continue to advance our growth projects.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

The KFS Frac II debottleneck remains on schedule for completion by the end of June and is now expected to come in below budget. Frac III and KAPS Zone four continue to progress well, both on time and on budget. These projects are highly contracted and will continue to drive growth and stable fee-for-service cash flow, supporting the strength of our balance sheet and long-term dividend sustainability.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Turning briefly to AEF. Following the previously announced outage, the repairs have been completed. We're also now completing the turnaround planned for the fall, eliminating the need for a separate shutdown later this year. The facility is expected to return to full operating capacity by the end of May. While the reliability of the asset has been below expectations, we recognize the importance of AEF to our business and the value it delivers.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

During the outage, we completed a comprehensive review of the facility and its operating plan. As a result, we expect to enhance our maintenance strategy by supplementing the existing four-year major turnaround cycle with a smaller planned outage between major turnarounds. Our objective is to maximize production of iso-octane during a four-year cycle while ensuring safe and efficient operations. With that, I'll turn it over to Eileen to walk through our financial results and outlook.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

Thanks, Dean, good morning, everyone. Keyera's first quarter results reflect continued strength in our fee for service business, which was offset by lower Marketing contributions. Excluding transaction costs related to the Plains acquisition, adjusted EBITDA was CAD 232 million, distributable cash flow was CAD 133 million or CAD 0.58 per share. Net earnings for the quarter or a loss of CAD 122 million.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

In our fee for service segments, Gathering and Processing delivered record quarterly realized margin of CAD 118 million. In Liquids Infrastructure, realized margin was CAD 141 million. Results included record throughput across our condensate system, supported by continued growth in oil sands production. Turning to the Marketing segment, realized margin was CAD 13 million for the quarter.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

The decrease compared to last year was primarily attributable to the AEF outage and corresponding butane risk management activities. We ended the quarter with net debt to adjusted EBITDA of 2.2x, which remains below our long-term target range and provides continued financial flexibility. Following the completion of the NGL contracting season, we are providing 2026 Marketing segment realized margin guidance on a standalone basis.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

Marketing realized margin is expected to range between CAD 210 million and CAD 250 million, with the majority of contributions weighted toward the second half of the year. All other Keyera standalone guidance for growth capital, maintenance capital and cash taxes remain unchanged. With that, I'll turn it back to Dean for closing remarks.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Thanks, Eileen. Keyera continues to execute on a clear strategy to strengthen and extend our integrated value chain, building a more connected and efficient system that supports customer growth and improves access to key markets. With the closing of the Plains acquisition, we are entering into the next phase of growth for the company with an expanded platform that further enhances our ability to serve customers across the basin.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Looking ahead, we will remain focused on disciplined integration, continued execution of our growth projects and delivering long-term value for our customers and shareholders. On behalf of the board and management team, I want to thank our employees, customers, shareholders, indigenous rights holders and other stakeholders for their continued support. With that, we'll open the line for questions. Operator, please go ahead.

[Operator]

Thank you ladies and gentlemen we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question please press star followed by the one on your touch tone phone. You will hear a tone by your hand raise. Should you wish to disconnect from the polling process please press star followed by the two. If you are using a speaker phone please let me hear you press me key. One moment please for your first question. Your first question comes from Robert Hope with Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

[Robert Hope, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Morning, everyone. Would like some more color on the Competition Tribunal process. You have 45 days to put in your application there. Can you maybe give us a little bit more incremental color on what the key themes that you would like to put forward to the Competition Bureau to state your case that the acquisition should close as filed? As well as, you know, do you think you'll take the full 45 days, or could you accelerate that?

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yeah. Good morning, Rob, and thank you for the question. You know, we're not in a position to speak on, you know, more about what our position is. I just wanna emphasize that we're very confident in the strength of our case. Again, because of the matters before the tribunal, we're limited in what we can say. With respect to the actual process, maybe I'll just turn it over to Eileen, and she can speak to it in more detail.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

Sure. Thanks. Good morning, Rob. There's, you know, not too much incremental from what was already in Dean's opening remarks. The matter now will proceed through the tribunal process. It's an impartial and independent specialized court, which gives us the opportunity to have our case heard by a panel of judges and non-judge tribunal members. As Dean mentioned, we believe in our case and look forward to presenting it to the tribunal. At this point, it's really too early to speculate on what the timeline will be.

[Robert Hope, Analyst at Scotiabank]

All right. Thanks. I thought I'd try. Maybe moving over to the Marketing guidance ex-Plains, can you maybe help us understand what commodity price assumptions are included in that, just given, you know, it is looking similar to kind of the prior guidance, yet the commodity pricing looks quite a bit different than before?

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

Thanks, Rob. I can take that one. The guidance we did provide is on a standalone basis, and it does incorporate the AEF outage, which was approximately CAD 110 million. I would say it's conservative at this point in time. It does include the impact of butane, which is lower than our 10-year average, so that's a positive.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

Certainly, there were some hedges that on the inventory where we took a loss in the front months, but we'll start to see that as we sell the inventory. The one thing that, you know, again, could be a tailwind to the guidance we've put out is the iso-octane premiums. As you are aware, that's something that we cannot hedge.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

As AEF comes up and, you know, by the end of the month and we get into the summer driving period, that is a potential tailwind to the guidance that we provided, but largely in line with the assumptions that we had laid out, the hedges that were already in place, which is the CAD 210-CAD 250.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

I think, just to add on to Eileen's comments, Rob, you know, overall, we think that there is a more of a macro tailwind to our Marketing business. I mean, if you think about the situation in Strait of Hormuz, the longer that blockage lasts, it really puts a higher floor under the whole price complex for crude oil, you know, natural gas and also LPGs for a longer period of time.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, we think that's positive for frac spreads. We think that's positive for our octane business. You know, Eileen talked about, you know, the premiums, but obviously, if you look at the gasoline cracks, they're very strong as well. The underlying crude oil price is very high.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, we think the forward prices for the rest of this year, I mean, we do have some hedges in places, but into 2027 as well, those are positive, tailwinds overall for our business.

[Robert Hope, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Appreciate that. Thank you.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Thank you for your questions.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Spiro Dounis with Citi. Your line is now open.

[Spiro Dounis, Analyst at Citi]

Hey, operator. Good morning, everybody. Wanna start, Dean, with some of your closing comments there on the next phase of growth. You've got three major projects now sanctioned and under construction. If I think back, those projects were highly visible to you and us well into sanctioning them. Just curious, as you look beyond 2028, how are you thinking about that next wave of expansions and when do you think you'll be in a position to start communicating them?

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yes. Good morning, and thank you for the questions. You know, first of all, what I would say is that our, you know, speaking to the three major projects, they are progressing very well. Our team is doing an outstanding job of executing those projects. I mean, nothing's done until they're done, but so far they're progressing very well.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, we're very excited about the Plains acquisition and, you know, when we think about how we add value for our customers and our shareholders, the lowest hanging fruit is going to be with the Plains assets. We've talked about CAD 100 million of synergies, which we have very high conviction in, but we're seeing some really great opportunities well beyond CAD 100 million.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

We are gonna, you know, capture that low-hanging fruit as fast as we possibly can. You know, we've been operating obviously as separate companies until the last two days, so there is certainly a period of time that it's gonna require us to get further up to speed on some of the opportunities on their side and get more detail behind it.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

We just think that there's a lot more upside than we had envisioned at the beginning when we signed this transaction. I think that's very positive. On top of that, you know, I think it's great that we're hearing more positive momentum on LNG Canada Phase 2 and also, you know, crude oil export pipelines and adding more capacity from that front.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

I think both from our gas gathering and processing perspective, there's gonna be more of that required, which translates to more volumes down our KAPS Pipeline and potentially downstream from there, but also our oil sands business. You know, I can see, you know, more capacity expansions around that. Maybe I can just turn it over to Brad, and if you wanna speak specifically to the gas gathering and processing side and maybe some other opportunities we see there.

[Brad Slessor, SVP, Gathering and Processing and NGL Pipelines Business Unit at Keyera]

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Dean, and thanks for the question. I think on the Gathering and Processing side, we see really great activity progressing around our northern plants. You can see it in our volumes and in our quarterly results, including the new assets we've brought in. We see at both Simonette and Wapiti opportunity to debottleneck those facilities.

[Brad Slessor, SVP, Gathering and Processing and NGL Pipelines Business Unit at Keyera]

Then we're starting to look at incremental things past those projects as well. As Dean said, more gas processing comes with more liquids that need to make it down the value chain and all the way through the integrated chain. We're excited to see what the basin will give us. As Dean said, we see some of those tailwinds behind the basin as well.

[Spiro Dounis, Analyst at Citi]

Got it. That's great to hear. Second question, maybe just pivoting here to condensate a bit, came up quite a few times on the last call and that was of course, you know, before Iran. You know, since then obviously things on the macro side seem to have improved. There's potentially over 1 million barrels a day of crude egress being contemplated out of Canada. Just maybe wanna get your latest views on how you're thinking about the impact to condensate, you know, and whether or not those volumes can unlock more expansions on your current footprint.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yeah, that's a really great question. You know, I think a lot of people when they think about crude oil, you know, egress, I think it's fantastic that there'll likely be a lot more capacity built for crude export pipelines.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

People have to remember that for every two barrels that you flow down a pipe, you need one barrel of diluent, which is, you know, the condensate, to flow with it because the bitumen is so viscous. You know, that's really great for our business because we have the hub for condensate. I mean, you know, roughly two-thirds of the condensate that flows up to the oil sands comes off our system.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

That's our pipeline connectivity, that's our storage caverns, and we also have the Norlite Pipeline that also delivers up to the oil sand. That is a business that's in big demand. I'll maybe just turn over to Jamie to provide additional commentary.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

Yeah. Thanks, Dean. I don't know what more I can add really other than we've anticipated this or positioned ourselves to be able to understand how our condensate system can be expanded in the most capital efficient and time efficient manner.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

Just to remind everybody as well that we do have an ownership in the Norlite Pipeline, which is in our minds a very strategic pipeline that we're working with our partner to maximize the opportunities as we're looking at, you know, industries looking at expansions up in the oil sands area. You know, oil sands is often a part of our business that doesn't get focused on very much. It's a huge contributor to our business, and we see that there's significant opportunity for growth.

[Spiro Dounis, Analyst at Citi]

Great color. I'll leave it there. Thank you, team.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Thanks a lot. Have a good day.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Robert Catellier with CIBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

[Robert Catellier, Energy Infrastructure Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Hey, good morning and congratulations on the closing of the transaction. I imagine we're gonna get a more fulsome update at some point. I'm wondering what you can tell us about the impact the Plains acquisition will have on that 7%, 8% fee-based growth category you have. Obviously, there's gonna be some uncertainty related to the Competition Tribunal process. On an as is basis, what is your confidence level in that fee-based growth extending beyond the current forecast timeline you've given?

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yeah. Good morning, Rob, and thanks for your question. You know, I just wanna emphasize that we see a lot of synergy value with Plains. With that, I'll turn it over to Eileen, and she can maybe add some more color.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

Thanks, Rob. We do plan to provide an updated guidance for probably around the mid to late June timeframe, it will be a refreshed fee-based EBITDA growth rate again, on the combined basis within the coming weeks. We do want to give some time to actually operate the assets for a period of time, we are really excited to provide you with that update.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

Just remember, our existing CAGR, it goes out to 2027, and we've largely hit that. That was really from filling white space, again, which we have done. Now as we bring on all of these new projects that we're currently in the process of executing, like Zone Four and all of the frac expansions, those come in in 2027, 2028.

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

Those have very strong returns that will continue to improve that growth rate to the end of the decade, as well as the synergies and the synergies beyond CAD 100 million that Dean just spoke about. An update is coming shortly.

[Robert Catellier, Energy Infrastructure Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Okay. That's understandable. Just on the synergy side, I wonder if you could describe the path to that full synergy capture. You know, I'm thinking that, you know, we don't know what the outcome on the tribunal process might be, of course. How do you go about capturing those synergies when there's some uncertainty as to what the final product might look like?

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

I mean, you know, as I said before, I mean, we see a ton of synergies here, and we capture the majority of them on day one. You know, a lot of it is just the overhead. I mean, we're able to run this business more efficiently by combining together. You know, when you look beyond that, we've talked about some of the synergies.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

There are certainly operating synergies. We're gonna be able to apply our supply chain and procurement strategies across entire entity and leverage, you know, our expanded size. Our maintenance activities, our company will be, you know, spending north of CAD 200 million a year on maintenance activities. Can we get better at that and more efficient at that? Absolutely.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, Jamie's talked about our rail car fleet and our logistics. We're gonna be much more efficient with this cross Canada corridor, NGL corridor, we're gonna be able to deliver product to market more efficiently than the past. We'll need less rail cars and things like that, which are very expensive.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, on top of that, we do see some issues or opportunities where we increase reliability. You know, with the combined asset base, we have more redundancy in our system, I think that can translate to more effective capacity overall, which is good for our customer and good for our shareholders. There's commercial opportunities too.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, when you add all that up, you know, we believe that we should be able to deliver well beyond the CAD 100 million of synergies that we put out there. Anything else you wanna add, Jamie?

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

No. I think you nailed it.

[Robert Catellier, Energy Infrastructure Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Okay. Just to follow up to the condensate questions, I'm wondering if you had anything in terms of timelines or potential CapEx requirements for whatever solution you might have to expand that condensate system.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

Yeah. Well, I can speak to the timelines. It's just consistent with what companies are communicating to the market around the timing of their projects. We fully expect that we'll, you know, be able to see some growth, continued growth in that business in the 2027, 2028 timeframe.

[Robert Catellier, Energy Infrastructure Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets]

Okay. That's it for me, and good luck with the integration.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Thanks, Rob. Have a great day.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Benjamin Pham with BMO Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

[Benjamin Pham, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

All right. Thanks. Good morning. You had a comment in the MD&A around the south region production growing by a couple percent. I think the last time we've seen that basin grow at all for some time. Can you comment on the outlook you're expecting there and any sort of impact you anticipate on your assets in the region?

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yeah. Good morning, Ben. Thanks very much for the question. I'm gonna turn that over to Brad.

[Brad Slessor, SVP, Gathering and Processing and NGL Pipelines Business Unit at Keyera]

Hey. Good morning, Ben. glad to get a question on the south. Our team has been working very, very hard on that asset base. In the last several years, they've really worked to transform the contract behind that asset base as well, and you're seeing that with the increased utilization.

[Brad Slessor, SVP, Gathering and Processing and NGL Pipelines Business Unit at Keyera]

We've put much longer term contracts into that asset than we've historically seen. In the past, a lot of that south basin was really driven off of gas pricing. What we're seeing now is an increased uptake in Duvernay drilling with the West Shale Duvernay and Carrot Creek, and we're seeing those volumes working their way into our system.

[Brad Slessor, SVP, Gathering and Processing and NGL Pipelines Business Unit at Keyera]

Those are also ultra liquids rich, so we see those coming into some of our gas plants in the south, which are already connected into our value chain all the way to Fort Saskatchewan.

[Brad Slessor, SVP, Gathering and Processing and NGL Pipelines Business Unit at Keyera]

Good example of that is our Rimbey Gas Plant, the large deep cut plant that's super well-positioned to capture a lot of the gas that you're seeing coming out of the Duvernay play. We're very happy with how those assets are performing. We think that there's still lots of legs for that to keep on going.

[Benjamin Pham, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Got it. Thanks a lot for that. Go back to on the business update, you think that the mid to late June timeframe is the focus really been extending that guidance CAGR timeframe that you have there currently?

[Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO at Keyera]

Morning, Ben. Yes, that is the idea to extend the CAGR to near the end of the decade.

[Benjamin Pham, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets]

Okay, got it. Okay, thank you. Thanks for the color.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Thanks a lot.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Teresa Chen with Barclays. Your line is now open.

[Teresa Chen, Analyst at Barclays]

Morning. Going back to the tailwinds related to the iso-octane business and stemming from the global supply shock in liquids products, including premium gasoline, with the significant refining infrastructure sustaining physical damage in the Middle East, coupled with curtailed exports from major Asian suppliers, do you view this as a transient benefit, i.e., the elevated octane spreads we're seeing now would dissipate if when the strait is fully open?

[Teresa Chen, Analyst at Barclays]

Do you view this as a more durable uplift to your iso-octane margins, given your ability to creatively source feedstocks and the reliability of supply? Does this factor into your commercial discussions related to this business at all?

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yeah, you know what? That's a very good question, Teresa. I'll turn it over to Jamie. You know, just maybe a couple of comments is that I think there are some elements that are very durable going forward.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, part of it is there is more refining capacity being shut down, too, in North America and namely in California. You know, some of the markets that we serve in interior the United States, you know, they are now gonna feed more gasoline to California to make up for that loss of production. You know, we think that's maybe net positive.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, what else is happening right now is that some of the naphtha crackers in Asia are shutting down, and they're basically getting displaced with crackers that take a lighter end feedstock. Those naphtha crackers, they produce more chemical octanes, which, you know, they do compete in the octane world on the, you know, off the water.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, I think overall with less octanes supply, that should be a net tailwind for our octane premiums, you know, when you think about the trends going forward. Anyway, those are just some of the tailwinds that we see. Jamie, I'm sure you have some more thoughts.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

Yeah. Maybe I can layer a little bit more on. It, and it's a great observation and a great question, is that, you know, the one thing I'd mention as well is that I, I think the destruction of infrastructure and the timing of being able to repair that infrastructure is gonna have ripple effects throughout a lot of, you know, different commodities.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

Certainly that's impacted propane pricing as well. And the longevity we see of elevated propane pricing. Dean touched on that. That's gonna support our deal for export on the West Coast that we're stepping into with AltaGas in the 2028 timeframe, and just the fundamentals. Also frac spread that we're now assuming more exposure to with the Plains assets.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

It's also impacting non-North American refinery capacity as well, specifically in Asia. As we think about the global flow of gasolines, we also see a pull out of North America to serve those markets. That's gonna leave us a little short.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

Dean's touched on the fact that we've got lower naphtha costs that ultimately are a primary feedstock for blending, and ultimately you need octanes to mix in that blending activity to be able to generate gasoline. As we connect all those dots together, certainly, you've seen that in the RBOB crack or the gasoline crack pricing, you know, in 2026 and 2027.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

You're also seeing that with respect to the octane demand and associated octane premiums that we're seeing unfold, not only in this summer driving season, but our expectation is going into 2027 as well.

[Teresa Chen, Analyst at Barclays]

That's very helpful. Thank you. Related to the AEF facility specifically, do you have an update on how the turnaround is progressing, following the unplanned outage? Can you share some of the key learnings here? In relation to the new maintenance strategy, what exactly are you planning to do during the smaller planned outages between major turnarounds, that's supposed to enhance reliability of the asset? What does that work entail?

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

Yeah. Great question. Can't really get into the specifics of the root cause of the outage that we incurred in January, other than we did determine the root cause, and we're applying those learnings to ensure improved reliability go forward.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

To get to your question with respect to the shorter, we're calling it a pit stop, in that in between our regular four-year turnaround schedule. It's more around inspections, and ensuring the integrity of equipment and making sure that we're being proactive with respect to our maintenance activities based on comparing condition of equipment relative to baselines to.

[Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit at Keyera]

Ensure that we're not reacting to things at AEF rather than we're being very proactive from our maintenance activities.

[Teresa Chen, Analyst at Barclays]

Thank you.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

As we said before, our objective is to make as much octane over a four-year cycle. You know, we've learned a lot over the last five years. You know, we've had a number of unplanned outages. We feel with all the work that we've done, in the valuation of the entire facility while we've been out for this extended period of time, that's really benefited us. We do believe that small minor pit stop and a four-year turnaround is the best way to go and to produce the most octane over that period.

[Teresa Chen, Analyst at Barclays]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from Patrick Kenny with NBCM. Your line is now open.

[Patrick Kenny, Managing Director, Research at National Bank Financial]

Thank you. Good morning. Appreciating its business as usual or, you know, integration as planned here until further news comes out of the tribunal process. Just thinking, you know, in the meantime, as you look to compete for new business in the field, perhaps offer customers access to your extended value chain, just wondering how you're managing the commercial dynamics while, you know, waiting for the final decision here.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Good morning, Pat. Thanks for the question. It is business as usual. I mean, the number one objective for us is obviously safe operations, reliable operations. For our customers, this has to be seamless, and we have to deliver them a great service. You know, we believe that we're gonna have a superior service offering right across the board for our customers, and we have to deliver that.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, we're gonna be working with all of our customers like we do and the new customers that we're gonna pick up and new contracts that we'll pick up with Plains. As always, we work very closely with our customers to understand what's important to them and understand their needs.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

We work to customize a solution that adds the most value for them, and that's exactly what we're gonna do as we add, you know, value through this integration and synergy process. Is there anything else you guys wanna add? No?

[Patrick Kenny, Managing Director, Research at National Bank Financial]

Okay. And then I guess looking at forward frac spreads, obviously there's still, you know, a healthy level of backwardation into 2027 and beyond, but I'm just curious if you're able to capitalize on, you know, some of the near term commodity price volatility here from a hedging standpoint while you're waiting for final resolution.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yeah, that's a great question. Well, certainly, you know, just wanna remind everyone that we have a 12-month hedge in place. That was negotiated as part of the original, you know, transaction and terms of the transaction.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

We have that in place, and we wanna make sure that we had good cash flow stability from that part of the business for the first full year. It's a majority of production, so we're still exposed a bit beyond and above that, and partly because the flows through Empress have been higher than what we've modeled, which is a positive. As we said before, you know, we certainly think the pricing floor is higher than what it was pre the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Again, the longer this outage lasts, we believe that the higher prices, especially for propane, are gonna linger higher, which will give us opportunities to further extend the hedge past the 12 months, and we'll look for opportunities to do that.

[Patrick Kenny, Managing Director, Research at National Bank Financial]

Sounds good. Last one for me here. I know it's a bit of a what if question, but just thinking from a balance sheet perspective, you know, with the subscription receipts now converted to shares, I guess if you, if you do find yourselves in a position of receiving some proceeds from, you know, certain assets being sold, would you look to redeploy that cash right away into other opportunities, either organically or through tuck-ins, or would you maybe prioritize buybacks or further debt repayment?

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yeah, that's a great question. You know what? First of all, you know, we really believe in the strength in our case, we're not focused on remedies. You know, that would include any sales associated with this acquisition. As a company, our strategy is always to look at our asset base and high-grade it.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

As you saw, we sold our Wildhorse Terminal last year, and we're de-redeploying those proceeds into our Canadian business. We see a lot of opportunity going forward. You know, we'll look to reinvest our cash flows to capture that opportunity to, you know, to deliver expanded service to our customers. Anything you wanna add to that?

[Patrick Kenny, Managing Director, Research at National Bank Financial]

Great.

[Patrick Kenny, Managing Director, Research at National Bank Financial]

Okay. That's great. Thanks, Dean.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yep. Thanks a lot, Pat.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, should you have a question, please press star one. Your next question comes from Maurice Choy with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

[Maurice Choy, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Thank you, and good morning, everyone. If I could just focus on what seems to be the next phase of big project developments once you have a combined entity. I know you shared your accomplishments on KFS Frac II, the bottleneck costs have come down there. As you think about your next phase of growth here, what are some of the emerging areas of a project's development that you are anticipating will require greater focus and perhaps pinch points that needs to be dealt with early?

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yeah. Good morning, Maurice, and thanks for the question. You know, as we said before, I mean, certainly with more egress for both oil products, for natural gas, for crude oil, more export capacity that's getting built, we just think that there's gonna be a lot of core infrastructure and infrastructure that will need to be built with it. At the front end of that, as Brad talked about, there'll be more gas gathering processing capacity that will have to be built. We're located in the best spot in the liquids rich part of the basin and the Montney Basin.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

We, you know, we think that we can participate and offer a great service, both with the connectivity to our existing infrastructure and to add incremental capacity beyond that. You know, for us it's all about allocation of capital, and we wanna allocate our capital and our resources to where we can add the most value.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

As I said before, with the Plains assets that we just acquired, we see a tremendous amount of opportunity there and, you know, we can, we're gonna direct a lot of our efforts to, again, enhance our service offering for our customers and to maximize the value we deliver to our shareholders as well.

[Maurice Choy, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

If we could finish off with a question on how you touched on incremental gas and crude egress from the basin. Obviously there's been a major upstream M&A recently, and I wonder if you could just talk to any direct or indirect impacts to your company given your commercial relationships, and then just more broadly, what that you think means for the outlook of the basin.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Well, first of all, I'd just say it's a positive for our basin. It's and in industry in Canada, if this means that the probability of LNG Canada Phase 2 moves forward, you know, we should be exporting that and adding way more capacity and exporting a lot more LNG off the west coast of Canada.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

This is fantastic from that perspective. I'd say that, you know, there's a part of me that feels a bit sad, to be honest. I look at a company like ARC that's a homegrown Canadian company that's been around for over two decades. The team is, you know, Terry Anderson, his team is, they're fantastic people to work with, and we've worked very closely with them for a long period of time.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

You know, they should be very proud of what they built. I'm sad to see that management team go. Hopefully they start up something new and build another ARC. You know, with regards to Shell, we've tried to work with them on different projects already. We're very familiar with them. You know, one of our directors is the former country chair of Shell. We do have some connections, Michael Crothers.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Whether our customer is Shell or a very small company, every customer is important to us, and we are gonna work very closely with each one of them, including Shell, to understand what's important to them, how we can add value to their business, and we'll deliver them the best service possible. Is there anything else you guys wanna ask?

[Maurice Choy, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

That's great. Thank you very much for that.

[Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO at Keyera]

Yeah. Thank you.

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Dan for closing remarks.

[Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager, Investor Relations at Keyera]

Thank you all once again for joining us today. Please feel free to reach out to our investor relations team with any additional questions. I hope everyone enjoys the upcoming May Long Weekend in Canada.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.

Participants

Executives

• Brad Slessor, SVP, Gathering and Processing and NGL Pipelines Business Unit
• Dan Cuthbertson, General Manager, Investor Relations
• Dean Setoguchi, President and CEO
• Eileen Marikar, SVP and CFO
• Jamie Urquhart, SVP, Liquids Business Unit

Analysts

• Benjamin Pham, Analyst at BMO Capital Markets
• Maurice Choy, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
• Patrick Kenny, Managing Director, Research at National Bank Financial
• Robert Catellier, Energy Infrastructure Analyst at CIBC Capital Markets
• Robert Hope, Analyst at Scotiabank
• Spiro Dounis, Analyst at Citi
• Teresa Chen, Analyst at Barclays