Amcor Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
May 6, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Synergy delivery is accelerating — Amcor reported $77M in Q3, $170M year‑to‑date and now expects $270M in fiscal 2026 (vs an initial $260M), with a $650M three‑year target the company says is fully in sight.
  • Positive Sentiment: Financial performance and guidance were solid: Q3 adjusted EPS was $0.96 (+6% YoY) and full‑year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS is guided to $3.98–$4.03 (roughly 12% growth at the midpoint), with Q4 implying >20% YoY growth.
  • Negative Sentiment: Free cash flow and working capital were pressured by a deliberate decision to hold more inventory for supply continuity, cutting fiscal 2026 FCF guidance to $1.5–$1.6B (from $1.8–$1.9B) and producing a Q3 cash outflow of $39M.
  • Positive Sentiment: Portfolio optimization progressed with six non‑core divestiture agreements/closings (~$500M combined transaction value) whose all‑cash proceeds will be used to reduce debt, while non‑core performance has improved.
  • Neutral Sentiment: On the Middle East conflict, Amcor says it has limited direct exposure (~5% of resin sourcing), expects no material Q4 earnings impact and is using pass‑through pricing plus higher inventory to secure supply, but acknowledges ongoing volatility and uncertainty.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Amcor Q3 2026
00:00 / 00:00

There are 16 speakers on the call.

Speaker 11

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Amcor Third Quarter Results 2026. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Tracey Whitehead, Head of Investor Relations. Tracey, please go ahead.

Speaker 15

Thank you, operator, and thank you everyone for joining Amcor's fiscal 2026 3rd quarter earnings call. Joining today is Peter Konieczny, Chief Executive Officer, and Stephen Scherger, Chief Financial Officer. Before I hand over, let me note a few items. On our website, amcor.com, under the Investors section, you'll find today's press release and presentation, which we will discuss on this call. Please be aware that we'll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures and related reconciliations can be found in that press release and the presentation. Remarks will also include forward-looking statements that are based on management's current views and assumptions. The second slide in today's presentation lists several factors that could cause future results to be different than current estimates. Reference can be made to Amcor's SEC filings, including our statements on Form 10-K and 10-Q for further details.

Speaker 15

Please note that during the question and answer session, we request that you limit yourself to a single question and then rejoin the queue if you have any additional questions or follow-ups. With that, over to you, PK.

Speaker 12

Thank you, Tracey, and thanks to everyone for joining us as we review Amcor's fiscal 2026 3rd quarter results. As always, on slide 3, we will start with safety, our number 1 priority. The health and well-being of our colleagues remain a core value at Amcor. That commitment will not change. In Q3, we continued to deliver industry-leading safety performance. 71% of our sites remained injury-free through the quarter. Our total recordable incident rate at 0.49 is a modest increase compared with last year's performance. This is not unusual after we acquire businesses. We are pleased to see this key metric improve for the 3rd consecutive quarter following the Berry acquisition. Slide 4 highlights the key messages for today. First, I want to take a moment to highlight an important milestone.

Speaker 12

We've just reached the first anniversary of the combination between legacy Amcor and Berry. Reflecting on the past year, I'm genuinely pleased with the progress we've made on the initiatives we set out to achieve. The integration process itself went very smoothly. We kept our colleagues safe, maintained a strong focus on our customers, and structured the organization around a robust leadership team, allowing us to quickly deliver on the synergy commitments we made. In addition, we were swift in identifying non-core businesses, and I'm happy to report that we're making substantial progress on those divestitures. We're navigating through a challenging and ever-changing environment, but it is clear that our uniquely positioned, diversified global portfolio and the strength of our customer and supplier relationships have positioned us well. Our ability to stay focused on what we can control and execute effectively continues to drive resilient financial results.

Speaker 12

In the face of the Middle East conflict, securing supply and responsibly managing cost and pricing to counter inflation are key priorities for us, just as we've done successfully in the past. As such, we're not expecting the Middle East conflict to have any material impact on our Q4 earnings. We're confident in the underlying strength of our business, and that assurance comes from always putting our customers at the center of our decisions. Additionally, we're excited about the significant opportunities ahead as we work to realize the additional synergy benefits identified from the integration of legacy Amcor and Berry. Second, our financial performance in the third quarter was in line with expectations. Adjusted EPS of $0.96 per share was up 6% year-over-year.

Speaker 12

For the first 9 months, adjusted EPS increased 11% to $2.79 per share. Our ability to continue growing earnings through turbulent economic times reflects our focus on execution, synergies, cost and productivity improvements, and responsible pricing actions while responding quickly and in a coordinated way as global market conditions abruptly change. I am proud of the way our teams around the world have come together again to face challenges with energy, agility, and maturity. We are leveraging the unique position of Amcor's strengthened global portfolio to meet evolving customer needs. Our core portfolio continues to perform with another quarter of strong synergy capture and earning stability in a modestly challenging volume environment. We are pleased to see a step up in financial performance across our non-core businesses, which we anticipated and discussed last quarter.

Speaker 12

Third, we made important progress on our portfolio optimization actions with 4 additional sale agreements reached over the last 3 months, adding to the 2 agreements previously announced in Q1. The combined transaction value from these 6 divestitures is approximately $500 million. All cash proceeds will be used to reduce debt, consistent with the capital allocation priorities we have highlighted over the last several quarters. These actions sharpen our focus on higher return and higher growth opportunities across the $20 billion core portfolio as we continue to improve the overall quality, resilience, and earnings profile of the business.

Speaker 12

Fourth, synergy delivery continues to accelerate, reaching $77 million in the quarter and $170 million for the first nine months. Our proven integration capabilities, a strong synergy pipeline, and consistent delivery at the upper end of expectations leaves us confident we will deliver $270 million of synergies in fiscal 2026, ahead of our initial $260 million year one target. Finally, we expect adjusted EPS to be in the range of $3.98-$4.03 per share for fiscal year 2026, representing strong growth of roughly 12% at the midpoint, driven primarily by synergy realization. We have experience in successfully navigating supply disruptions and resulting inflation, and we do not expect the current conflict in the Middle East to have a material impact on Q4 earnings.

Speaker 12

The midpoint of our Q4 adjusted EPS implies more than 20% year-over-year growth and reflects the near full lap of the Berry acquisition on May 1st. With input cost inflation significantly exceeding historical norms, our teams have acted fast, implementing responsible price and cost actions to maintain expected dollar earnings as we have in the past. In this environment, continuity of supply is a critical priority for our customers, and to meet that need, we have made choices about working capital management, primarily inventory, through the fourth quarter. This will impact the timing of our previously assumed fiscal 2026 working capital improvements, and as a result, we now expect free cash flow to be in the range of $1.5 billion-$1.6 billion.

Speaker 12

Stephen Scherger will talk more about the actions we have taken and the temporary impact on free cash flow in more detail shortly. Turning now to slide 5 and financial performance for the third quarter and year to date. The business generated quarterly revenue of $5.9 billion, EBITDA of $892 million, and EBIT of $687 million. This is significantly higher than the prior year as a result of the Berry Global acquisition, disciplined cost management, improved productivity, and accelerating synergy benefits. Adjusted EPS increased 6% to $0.96 per share for the quarter, in line with our expectations. This includes benefits from tax-related synergies that lowered our effective tax rate partially offset by a $25 million unfavorable impact related to the January and February winter storms in the U.S.

Speaker 12

After funding $78 million of Berry transaction restructuring and integration-related cash cost, free cash outflow was $39 million for the quarter. Today, the board also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.65 per share, which was modestly up over the prior year and aligned with our capital allocation framework and long-term commitments to annualized dividend growth. Moving to slide 6. Taking advantage of a unique opportunity to optimize the portfolio was one of the key commitments we highlighted after announcing the Berry acquisition. As mentioned earlier, we're making important progress and have now closed or reached agreements for the divestiture of 6 non-core businesses, representing approximately $500 million of combined annual revenue. A combined transaction value of approximately $500 million implies an average multiple of around 6 times.

Speaker 12

In line with our previous commitments, all cash proceeds will be used to reduce debt, and the net impact on EPS is not expected to be material. We're making good progress exploring alternatives for the remaining non-core businesses, including further encouraging discussions related to the North American beverage business. As mentioned, financial performance across the non-core businesses improved in the third quarter as expected, supporting our confidence the remaining non-core businesses will be divested in line with our commitments. With that, I turn the call over to Steve.

Speaker 14

Thank you, PK. Let me start on slide 7 with an update on our synergy progress. Synergy delivery continued to accelerate in the third quarter, and we continue to expect to exceed our initial year 1 target of $260 million. In Q3, we delivered approximately $77 million of synergies, and for the first 9 months, synergies total approximately $170 million. We are confident that we will deliver $270 million in fiscal 2026 and $650 million cumulatively over 3 years. G&A and procurement synergies continue to ramp up as planned, and we have clear line of sight to achieving our targets of approximately $160 million in year 1 and approximately $325 million by fiscal 2028.

Speaker 14

We have started to see a modest contribution from operational synergies, and the majority of these benefits are expected to contribute to earnings growth in years 2 and 3. Financial synergies were approximately $20 million for the quarter and $30 million for the first nine months, reflecting ongoing optimization of our debt and tax structures. Growth synergies continue to track well against our $280 million three-year annualized revenue target with annualized revenue now exceeding $110 million. Third quarter earnings benefited by a few million dollars as a result of these wins, which are expected to ramp up further in the second half of calendar 2026.

Speaker 14

Moving to slide 8, which highlights the performance of our $20 billion core portfolio. As a reminder, the core portfolio includes 6 focus categories: healthcare, beauty and wellness, proteins, liquids, food service, and pet care. These represent approximately 50% of core portfolio sales. Focus category volume performance continues to exceed the portfolio average. These represent the most attractive, defensible, and innovation-led markets where we hold leadership positions, where advanced solutions drive differentiation, and where long-term consumer demand is most durable. From a performance standpoint, the core portfolio continues to outperform the total company. While overall volumes were similar, down approximately 1.5% in the quarter, the core portfolio maintained stronger EBIT margins of approximately 12.3%, reflecting favorable mix, a higher concentration of advanced solutions, and the benefit of year 1 synergies.

Speaker 14

Volume and financial performance in the non-core business improved, as PK mentioned, with margins expanding meaningfully on a sequential basis. Year-to-date across the core portfolio, EBIT dollars were up approximately 4% relative to last year, despite modestly lower volumes. As we simplify and focus the business, exit non-core businesses, and invest in our focus categories, the overall growth profile, quality, and resilience of Amcor will continue to improve. Turning to slide 9 in the Global Flexible Packaging Solution segment. Sales for the segment increased 29% on a constant currency basis, driven primarily by the Berry acquisition. On a comparable basis, volumes were down approximately 1.5%, an improvement of 100 basis points compared with Q2. In the developed markets of North America and Europe, volumes were down low single digits compared with the prior year and similar overall to the second quarter.

Speaker 14

Volumes across emerging markets were up, mainly reflecting mid-single digit growth in Asia. By market category, volumes were higher in pet food and proteins, offset by lower volumes in healthcare and other nutrition. Adjusted EBIT was up 28% on a constant currency basis to $452 million, driven by $78 million of acquired earnings, net of divestitures. On a comparable basis, adjusted EBIT was up approximately 3% and adjusted EBIT margin of 13.9% reflects synergy benefits in line with our expectations. Excluding synergies, comparable earnings were broadly in line with the prior year. Turning to slide 10 in the Global Rigid Packaging Solution segment. Sales for the segment increased significantly on a constant currency basis, mainly as a result of the Berry acquisition.

Speaker 14

On a comparable basis, volumes were down approximately 1.5% in both the core and non-core businesses. This was modestly weaker sequentially, due largely to the winter storm impact in the U.S. The business continued to deliver volume growth across emerging markets, mainly reflecting mid-single digit growth in Latin America. By market category, volumes were higher in liquids, food service, and beauty and wellness, offset by declines in healthcare and other nutrition. Adjusted EBIT was $276 million, up over last year on a constant currency basis, driven by approximately $175 million of acquired earnings, net of divestitures. On a comparable basis and excluding non-core businesses, adjusted EBIT was broadly in line with the prior year. Synergy benefits were offset by an unfavorable $25 million impact from the winter storms in January and February.

Speaker 14

A concentration of plants in the most weather-impacted areas across the Midwest and Northeast resulted in a large number of lost production days. Adjusted EBIT margin, excluding winter storm impact, was approximately 13%, 100 basis points higher than the second quarter. Moving to free cash flow and the balance sheet on slide 11. After funding $78 million of Berry transaction, restructuring and integration related cash costs, free cash outflow for the quarter was $39 million. Broadly in line with our range of expectations for the quarter and resulting in a first 9-month outflow of $93 million. Capital spending of $687 million is up compared with the prior year, and we continue to expect fiscal 2026 capital spending to be in the range of $850 million-$900 million.

Speaker 14

Adjusted leverage at the end of the quarter was 3.8 times. This is aligned with our expectations and consistent with prior year sequential movements between the second and third quarters. Stronger fourth quarter free cash flow is expected to drive this metric down at fiscal year-end. Our commitment to an investment-grade credit rating, a strong balance sheet, and a modestly growing dividend annually remains unchanged. Substantial annual free cash flow generation fully supports our capital allocation priorities. Turning to slide 12. As PK stated, we are uniquely positioned and proactively mitigating the impact of the Middle East conflict. We are well positioned to support our customers through reliable supply and service. We have no operations in and minimal polymer sourcing from the region. Our broad global network and supplier base gives us important flexibility to source materials from different regions and suppliers and flex production locations.

Speaker 14

We also have the capabilities to quickly reformulate and qualify alternative structures. These factors, together with making a choice to hold more inventory than we previously assumed, help us ensure supply continuity for our customers. We have well-established passthrough mechanisms in place which function effectively in a business as usual environment. When conditions move outside normal operating ranges, additional actions can and should be implemented to fairly reflect higher cost in our pricing. Our teams have acted quickly to mitigate cost inflation with balanced and fair price actions. In prior cycles, this approach enabled us to successfully mitigate the impact of substantial inflation with very minimal earnings implications. Moving to our fiscal 2026 guidance on slide 13. As PK highlighted earlier, we expect full year adjusted EPS to be in the range of $3.98 to $4.03 per share.

Speaker 14

This implies fourth quarter adjusted EPS growth of approximately 20% and will result in EPS growth of approximately 12% for fiscal 2026. Earnings growth will be driven primarily by synergy capture and strong execution. We expect fiscal 2026 free cash flow of $1.5 billion-$1.6 billion, including the impact of our decision to hold more inventory at higher costs. This compares with original guidance of $1.8 billion-$1.9 billion, which assumed a meaningful reduction in working capital in Q4. As supply conditions normalize, we expect to deliver the inventory and working capital improvements we previously anticipated, reversing the temporary timing impact we have now factored into our range. Taking into account updated earnings and free cash flow expectations, we now expect year-end leverage to be approximately 3.4-3.5 times.

Speaker 14

Importantly, our commitment to deleveraging and to an investment-grade balance sheet has not changed. We remain confident in our ability to deliver significant and growing annual free cash flow, and we continue to see a clear pathway to operating within a 2.5-3 times leverage range. Before handing the call back to PK, I would like to briefly highlight an announcement we made earlier today. Effective in 2027, we will transition our fiscal year-end from June 30th to December 31st. We believe this change will enhance comparability with peers and simplify modeling for investors and analysts. Our first full calendar fiscal year will begin on January first, 2027, and end on December 31st, 2027.

Speaker 14

As part of this transition, we will have a 6-month reporting period from July 1, 2026 through December 31, 2026, and we plan to provide guidance for this transition period alongside our June 2026 Q4 and full year results in August. In addition, beginning in 2027, we will initiate the migration and consolidation of select corporate functions to a new US headquarters in Miami, Florida, aligning resources more closely with our operating footprint. Switzerland and Australia will remain important parts of our corporate footprint as key hubs for our business. With that, I'll hand the call back to PK.

Speaker 12

Thanks, Steve. To close, in spite of challenging market dynamics, Amcor is a uniquely positioned global packaging leader, and we are proactively mitigating impacts of the Middle East conflict. Execution remains disciplined, and Q3 results were resilient and in line with expectations. Portfolio optimization continues to progress, sharpening our focus on higher value, more resilient end markets, and improving the overall earnings profile of the business. Synergies are tracking well, and we expect to exceed our initial year 1 commitment. With clear visibility to additional synergy benefits and a proven ability to navigate through volatility, we're confident in our outlook and the continued strength of our business. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Speaker 11

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question. If you would like to ask a follow-up question, please rejoin the queue. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, please press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Ghansham Panjabi with Baird. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everybody. Just going back to your comments on the Middle East impact on Q4, which sounds sort of immaterial, can you just give us a sense as to whether there'll be any sort of residual impact on the back half of 2026 from a calendar standpoint? The reason I ask is obviously resin's up, you know, close to 100% in a very short period of time, and Legacy Amcor had a pretty good track record of passing it through quickly. Berry, as a public company, did have lags in their contract structure, et cetera. Just curious as to what's changed and how you've been able to mitigate the impact. Thank you.

Speaker 12

Thanks, Kanchan. This is PK. It's a good question. Let me provide a bit of background here. First off, I think it's important for us to keep in mind that the collective new Amcor between Legacy Berry and Amcor does not really have a lot of exposure to the Middle East. We have no operations in the Middle East nor do we have any employees, and we actually source very little resin from the Middle East. Actually it's less than 5% of sourced resin from that region. Now we are operating in a global market and therefore we do have the two challenges of one, keeping ourselves in supply and our customers in supply and on the other hand, dealing with the inflation.

Speaker 12

You're asking sort of for the impact of inflation post the fourth quarter. The fourth quarter we've essentially pretty much covered in our introductory comments. You know, here's the reality. First off, nobody knows what the inflation in the fourth quarter and in the back half of the year is going to be like. We have a view on the fourth quarter, but there's lots of volatility out there. You know, I would just be speculating right now to throw an inflation number out there. That's also important in terms of, you know, how to take the information on the fourth quarter. I'd be very careful and would suggest that nobody just annualizes that number because of the volatility that we're seeing.

Speaker 12

I don't know what the inflation is. What I do know is the process that we are following in a very, you know, structured and disciplined way. Somewhere in our prepared comments, we said we didn't really have any impact of the Middle East on the third quarter. Financially, that is true. We had a significant impact on the third quarter from the Middle East in terms of our managerial activities that kicked into gear as we saw the Middle East crisis sort of develop. The big efforts were on both sides, securing supply and then also going to customers and making sure that we would be able to offset the inflation.

Speaker 12

On that part, you know, keep in mind that the combined business between Amcor and Berry, roughly splits between 70% and 30% of contracted versus non-contracted business. The 30% is something that we handle through general price increases, so we're able to go to the market pretty quickly and recover that. On the 70% that we have, pretty good pass-through clauses, some of which have, or I would say generally, they have all become even better after we've gone through significant inflation periods in the past. Recall 2022, 2023. They're all designed for business as usual situations.

Speaker 12

What we're doing here, and that is across the whole portfolio, is we're going to customers on the back of a collaborative approach, and this is driven by keeping everybody in supply, which is a significant concern across the whole value chain. We justify the additional cost that we have, and we're able to sit and come to conclusions in terms of relief, which is appropriate and matches the inflation and also appropriate in terms of the timing. That's sort of the way how we go about it, and we do that across the portfolio.

Speaker 14

Gotcha, it's Steve. Just to kind of follow on with PK, in terms of beyond Q4, our planning assumption is that our pass-through mechanisms and the relationships we have with our customers will continue to offset the cost environment. On a Q4 basis, as we talk no material impact, and that would be the same assumption as we look beyond Q4, given the mechanisms that are in place to offset either an inflationary environment or if it were to revert the other direction. As you look beyond Q4, that's the assumption for a continuation of an offset. Thanks, Ghansham Panjabi.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of Jeff Sikalis with JP Morgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Thanks very much. You talked about your inventories rising and your free cash flow moving down by about $300 million. That's really a one-quarter effect. I would imagine that your inventories have to be relatively higher over the next several quarters. As a base case, should we also expect some kind of free cash flow penalty in the 4 quarters that follow the June quarter of 2026?

Speaker 14

Hey, Jeff, it's Steve. I'll be glad to take a cut at that. I think relative to our prior guidance, which assumed an inventory reduction, which was what we were planning to do, what you're absolutely right. We are maintaining inventory levels kind of volumetrically, if you will.

Speaker 14

The cash flow implications are driven by the inflation on the inventory. That is the Q4 impact that we're sharing with you. Moving beyond Q4, I think it will depend. Obviously, if the markets stabilize relative to supply chains and value, the cash flow implications could be modest on a move forward basis. I think it's probably a little unpredictable to determine whether that cash flow impact continues to rise or kind of stabilizes as the supply chains stabilize. I think I wouldn't necessarily assume that there's an ongoing cash flow headwind. I think it will depend upon supply chain normalization in the environment. Appreciate the question.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of Ramoun Lazar with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 13

Good morning, everyone, thank you for taking my questions. Maybe if you can shed some light on how you're seeing the consumer through your customers, particularly given some of those resin cost impacts on the consumer. I guess maybe if you can talk us through how the quarter panned out, that would be useful.

Speaker 12

I'll take that, Ramon. I'll talk to the quarter first and then make a couple of comments on the consumer, so if that's okay. The quarter that we're referring to is the third quarter, obviously, which is the one that we're reporting on. We made a couple of comments already, but I'll try to give it my spin here and summarize it. The company was down 1.5% in the third quarter, and that is 100 basis points improvement sequentially versus the prior quarter. The 1.5% is equally split between the core and the non-core business. The core was 1.5% down and pretty much on the same level as in the prior quarter.

Speaker 12

The improvement we've seen a substantial improvement in the non-core business in terms of volumes. There were high single digits down in the prior quarter, 2Q, and now 1.5% down in the 3Q. Very pleased with that. That actually has driven also a significant improvement in the financial results of the non-core business, which was expected by us and is important also in the context of the progress that we're seeing in terms of selling it. Back to the volumes. If I double-click on that by volumes, by geography, you know, North America and everything that I'm now saying is just focused on the core business.

Speaker 12

North America is a little weaker than it has been in the second quarter, and that is due to the winter storm situation that we've seen in January and then to a lesser effect in February and hits particularly the Rigid business. Europe is better than in the prior quarter sequentially. Very low single-digits down. And we've seen our emerging markets actually kick back in and come back to growth with mid-single-digit growth across both regions, LATAM and Asia-Pacific. Final comment is that the focus categories in the core business outperformed the company overall by about 150 basis points. They're collectively flat. That's the commentary on the quarter.

Speaker 12

When I think about the consumer, we think, you know, the quarter, third quarter was probably not that much impacted by the Middle East crisis in that the inflation hasn't found its way through to the consumer. I think it will be prudent to assume that it will happen over time. The consumer, we've talked about it many times in prior quarters, is stretched as a result of that value seeking. The last thing that the consumer is looking for is additional inflation at this point in time. What I will say though is that, you know, our customers have performed actually quite well in the third quarter. When you take a look at their performance, it's encouraging.

Speaker 12

There's also, you know, a continued commitment to supporting volumes across the customer base, which I find encouraging. We'll have to see how that plays out. Obviously, again, that goes against a consumer that's already stretched, and we'll have to see that it plays out. Our best guess at this point in time is, and that applies to the fourth quarter, at very high level, I would also say that about the second half of the calendar year, would be that the market, the consumer will be down low single digits. That's sort of our high-level base assumption.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Roxland with Truist Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Yeah. Thank you, PK, Steve, Tracey, Dustin, for taking my questions. PK, you mentioned continuity of supply critical for your customers, so obviously it's one reason you're keeping the inventory elevated. We've heard that from other companies during reporting season thus far. Coming at it from a different angle, have you been able to gain any share, given your global presence and product availability?

Speaker 12

Yeah, thanks, Michael Roxland. It's a great question. First off, you know, I believe that we're pretty well positioned in terms of supplies. The reason for that is that we have a broad supply network across the globe. I was making a comment earlier that we buy very little from the Middle East region, less than 5%. Another reference point is that we buy about 65% of our resin from North America. We're in North America, where the supply chain obviously is more stable. We do have a global procurement team, obviously. We have the opportunities to swing volumes between suppliers because we're in many cases qualified across different formulations. Even when that's not the case, we have an excellent technical capability in order to get to qualifications quickly.

Speaker 12

That is probably the core. Those are the core reasons why we feel good about our suppliers right now. While I will not, you know, hide from you that it's we're laser focused on it because we wanna keep our customers obviously in supply. Now to the question of share gain, it's probably a bit early still. The only thing I can tell you is that in some cases we've had conversations with customers that came to us and said, "Hey, can you help out because we are seeing some issues with incumbent suppliers in some cases." We obviously try to help where we can and it gives you an indication, but I will say overall it's still early. Thank you.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of John Purtell with Macquarie. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Good day, PK, and Stephen. Hope you're both well. Steve, thanks for the early comments and PK as well. Just had a question on sort of the gearing, Steve, and just how you see it profiling, you know, over the next sort of 12 months. In particular, sort of what are the key drivers that you see to drive that gearing back to back to target? Thank you.

Speaker 14

Yeah. Thanks for that, John. I appreciate you raising that. As we shared, a modest uptick in our year-end leverage from our original guidance, a range now 3.4-3.5 times, pretty well chronicled in terms of the modest movements up there relative to the original guidance. It's a combination of modestly less EBITDA from the original guidance, given our volumes have been down 2% versus original guidance, assuming more flattish and then the impact of the inventory, the $300 million. That's a bit of the march towards the end of the year. I think very importantly, our commitment to our investment grade rating, our commitment to de-leveraging back to 3 times or below, is absolute.

Speaker 14

Given the actions that we're taking both in the form of the divestitures that we've completed, those which we expect to complete, as well as continued synergy capture as we look out over the next 12-18 months, we can see, you know, line of sight back towards that 3 times leverage range, as we look out towards really fiscal, the new fiscal and calendar 2027. While there's some short-term temporary impacts, it really hasn't altered our conviction and line of sight to de-leveraging using our cash flows as well as our divestiture cash inbound to move ourselves towards that 3 times and below. I think the new fiscal calendar 2027 will be an important year for that inflection.

Speaker 11

Your next question.

Speaker 14

Appreciate that, John.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Roberts with Raymond James. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 8

We might have a new fellow Floridian soon, so welcome. PK, the color you gave on volumes previously to a question just a minute ago, could you maybe. The March exit rate looked versus what you saw in April? Was there any evidence of pre-buying in certain markets given those cost increases that you discussed? Additionally, maybe on nutrition and food service, are you seeing any changes in the promotional environment that could help drive sequential improvement or just what's driving.

Speaker 12

Thanks, Matt. The line was a bit choppy there, but I think I got it all. First off, you asked for the exit volumes in March and what we're seeing in April. Look, I think I'm on record. I don't really like to comment too much on, you know, short-term volume performances of the business or anything that goes back to a month, I think is very risky to read too much into it. What I will tell you is, on the back of what I mentioned earlier too, we're expecting the fourth quarter to play out pretty much in terms of volumes just like what we've seen in the third quarter. That's our assumption. I will tell you that as we sit here today and we look back to April looked better than that.

Speaker 12

You know, that doesn't change our expectations at this point in time, but it's just a fact. When you ask me where that comes from, you know, I'm not, I'm not across it enough at this point in time to really give an indication here in terms of whether our customers are trying to increase stock a bit on the back of the overall situation. Could be the case, but I don't think it's a lot. I will also remind everybody that the supply chain is tight. Whenever they're asking these questions, you know, you have to make sure that you're actually in the position to respond to that and to satisfy that request. That's the situation on March and April.

Speaker 12

I think at the end you also spoke about promotional activities in general. I made a comment earlier and I said we're very encouraged with what we're hearing from our large customers. In their own results or his results, we hear what you hear. You know, the commitment to supporting their volumes continues to be very solid. That, I guess, will also that will translate in different initiatives, one of them being the promotional activities. You know, we were carefully listening to that and wondering how they deal with it in terms of making choices between protecting margins and driving volumes. I think we are in a position where we see more consistency on that. Thank you. Thank you for the question.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of George Staphos with Bank of America Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hi. Thanks, everybody. Good morning. Appreciate the details. A lot of my questions have already been answered. My question, I want to go back to how you and your customers are mitigating the resin effect. On the additional pricing, PK and Steve, that you're contemplating with customers, are these really an aggregation of 1-off discussions, or are you triggering any extraordinary clauses in your contracts so it's a little bit more mechanical than negotiation? How much does the extra inventory that you've built in not only allow for supply continuity, but maybe act as a buffer against the higher resin pricing and allowing you to, thus far from what we're hearing, Steve, manage 2nd half, you know, or excuse me, the stub year relatively consistently with what you're seeing in the 4th quarter, which is not that big of an effect?

Speaker 2

Thank you, and good luck in the quarter.

Speaker 12

Thanks, George. I'll take the first part of your question, then maybe Steve handles the inventory part, if that's okay. You were going back to the dynamics that we're seeing currently in dealing with our customers in order to get offset for the inflation. Look, as I said before, 30% is not contracted, so that's not the issue. 70% is contracted. In that 70%, we have a few contracts where we have opening clauses which we can refer to given the situation that we're currently seeing. This is all with the common understanding that this is not business as usual, what is happening. It is an exception rather than the rule.

Speaker 12

The other conversations, I go back to what I said earlier, they are conversations in a very collaborative approach with the customers where everybody understands that we're seeing significant inflation hitting the business really hard in a very short period of time. We believe ourselves, we have made it very clear, and everybody understands that, you know, in our business, we need to have an alignment on the commercial side between the buy and the sell side. Therefore, that requires support and help from our customers in order to keep us in business and make sure that we can supply them going forward. That's really the common interest driver that gets us to the table. This is not a one-off conversation. It is a You can call it a one-off, and it's not a one-off.

Speaker 12

Because as the situation changes with regards to inflation, we will have a continued dialogue with the customers in order to adjust ourselves to the, to the market side of our inputs. Everybody understands it's not a one-off. It's not a destination here, it's a journey. With that said, Steve, if you wanna comment on the inventory side.

Speaker 14

Yeah. Thanks, PK. I think, George, it's a good question just relative to our inventory. As we mentioned earlier, we're not building necessarily volume of inventory. We're more maintaining what we had, as opposed to the guidance of it declining. Obviously, we're carrying it at a higher cost. To your point, what it does allow us to do, because we had ample inventory at a volume level, is to mitigate some of the timing of some of the cost increases. Those get factored into the collaborative conversations that PK was referencing with customers.

Speaker 14

We're working to be just very fair, and very reliable and very consistent on servicing our customers and having the pricing that we execute with them, be in line with the actual realities of how pricing is coming through the business. As you indicate, some of the inventory that you have helps to mitigate. It also helps to mitigate some of the pace of the pricing and our intent for that to continue to be offset, as we see movement. It does actually help with those negotiations, those discussions with customers, 'cause we're able to mitigate some of the abruptness of what we're seeing on the cost side. It's all part of that good collaborative dialogue with customers to help keep them in supply.

Speaker 11

Your next-

Speaker 14

Appreciate that, George.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of Nathan Reilly with UBS. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 10

Yes, morning, gents. Just a question about the synergy target as we roll into 2027. Obviously you've got the challenges in relation to tighter, you know, procurement and supply chains. Of course, I guess a more uncertain consumer environment, just given the volatility and potential for inflation. Can you just talk to me about how that impacts your ability to deliver on the procurement and also the growth synergy targets into FY 2027?

Speaker 12

Nathan, it's PK. I'll kick off here, and then I'll see if Steve wants to build. You know, first off, taking a step back, we reconfirmed our target of $650 million synergies over a period of three years. We're guiding to a year 1 result in synergies which exceeds our expectations with $270 million. That number in year 1 has a significant contribution of procurement in there, otherwise we would have not gotten there. You know, that was delivered in a situation where we were facing a supply side. We had many conversations on these calls before that with facing a pretty low margin situation on the supply side.

Speaker 12

As we go forward, particularly with regards to procurement, we're going to see a different situation. A lot of inflation is happening. I would assume that, you know, the margin situation on the supply side is going to somewhat improve, and we just believe that we will continue to be able to extract value. That is on the back of certain characteristics that Amcor now has, that we had in the past, and that we will have going forward. That is, we are a big buyer. We're a global buyer, and, you know, we're important to our suppliers. Therefore, the confidence in extracting synergies from the resin side has not changed.

Speaker 12

I will also say, this is important for calibration, we've said this many times, resin is a portion of our procurement spend, right? We have in overall $13 billion procurement spend, $3 billion of that is indirect. From the remaining $10 billion, about half of that would be resin. You have the other half is non-resin direct spend from procurement. Overall, we're are pretty confident that we can deliver those numbers.

Speaker 14

Yeah, I can just add to PK's comments briefly. I think we certainly remain committed to the year 2 synergies, which are $260 million in year 2, coming off of the $270 that we're committed to here in year 1. Our line of sight to that remains positive and consistent. If you just kind of take it to what will be the stub year as was referenced earlier, we don't see anything that would change, you know, having half of that kind of roll through, roughly half of that roll through during that 6-month upcoming period of time. No change to our commitments and no change to the relative timing overall.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Operator

Good morning. I just had a quick question on the non-core portfolio. During the fiscal year, did the number or the composition of businesses that you consider non-core change? Did you sort of add or remove any businesses from that group? Did the Middle East conflict, has it impacted timeline or discussions for the divestitures? Thanks.

Speaker 12

Yeah, thanks, Anthony. It's a great question. The answer to your first question is, has the portfolio of the non-core businesses changed? The answer is no. We never intended to do that. A few words on this. Look, we did a strategic assessment of our whole portfolio after we combined Amcor with Berry, and we had a number of parameters that we had on the table. We looked at growth margin profiles, cyclicality of the businesses, industry structure, just to mention a few.

Speaker 12

There were a couple of others, but those were strategic reviews that we had, and therefore, we singled those businesses out and we said, "Look, we believe that there's better owners for that business, so we wanna focus elsewhere." That gives the whole process a certain solidity, which doesn't make it sort of erratic or opportunistic when you see a market dislocation like as what we're seeing currently with the Middle East crisis, right? The perimeters has always been the same. We're very encouraged with the progress that we're making. We announced a number of other agreements over the last three months, which is great.

Speaker 12

We're also encouraged with the conversations that we have around the North American beverage business, which is where we do not have an agreement yet, and some adjacencies to that business in the specialty containers sort of space. It's encouraging conversations particularly because these businesses are on a very nicely improving trend. We said that we saw improved performance in the third quarter, which was, you know, certainly driven by some relative volume performance sequentially, but even more so by us getting those businesses back on a very productive footing. I have a lot of time for the teams that have done an excellent job in getting that done.

Speaker 12

Remember that we had a number of customer interactions that also addressed some challenging margin situations, and we have made good progress with that, and that's what you're seeing right now. That has helped the business in the third quarter to perform better. We expect even more so sequentially of profitability in the fourth quarter. In terms of timing, I cannot be specific around that as you would expect me to. We're pretty encouraged that we will be able to get that done.

Speaker 14

Yeah. To your question, Anthony, and to PK's point, our actual performance in the North American beverage perimeter that is the component of that, we're still working on a sale process. The actual performance financially was in line with prior year, and margins were in line with our expectations. That was a good outcome and is probably the most relevant

Speaker 14

component of the sale process and nothing that really is impactful relative to the Middle East conflict. It's more around the improvement in the performance year-over-year, EBIT in line with prior year.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of Hilary Caccianato with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 4

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. You know, you're making great progress on your synergy targets. You know, could you go over any recent example of growth synergies where you were able to win a new contract because of a combined product using both Amcor and Berry Global's product? I would love to hear that. Thank you.

Speaker 12

Yeah. Thank you, Hilary. Look, we have made really good progress on the growth synergies. Let me just recalibrate us. We are on a year-to-date basis, or since we've had the acquisition, we have been able to close deals, now, up to $100 million annualized. Those businesses are ramping up, and they have started to impact the bottom line of the third quarter with a couple of million. That's perfectly as we expected. We got out of the shoots pretty quickly here because we were expecting $280 million of growth synergies over 3 years, and we're essentially now at $110 million. We made really good progress.

Speaker 12

The growth synergies, again, they're driven by the fact that we're able across the product portfolio, which is very complete now between Amcor and Berry Global, to sell systems, rather than the components. We have very complementary technology footprint. We have additional capacity on the table. These are just some examples. You know, in terms of examples, there's various ones here. Wasn't quite expecting the question, but I wanna go back to one that I've highlighted on an earlier call. Global pharma customer, you know, actually in line with the oral solid dose GLP-1 drug, was looking for different packaging formats for Europe and North America. In Europe it was a blister format. In North America it was a container format, a rigid container format.

Speaker 12

Almost an opportunity that was made for the combined Amcor-Berry. We've had the opportunities, we had the product, we were multi-regional, and that has led to the closing of a good contract. This is just one example. There's many others out there. Happy to follow up offline, that gives you a feel.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of Gabe Hyde with Wells Fargo Securities. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Hey, PK, Steve. Good morning. I have lots of questions, but I'm curious on the healthcare and nutrition, which I think are focused areas for you all. Both I think were called out as being areas of weakness. I think healthcare specifically was intended to improve, kind of beginning in the middle of 2026. Can you comment on that?

Speaker 12

Yeah. Gabe, I'll give you some more color here. I think what Steve was saying was, look, within the core business we have our six focus categories. They actually outperformed the overall core business, right? They were flat while the overall company was 1.5% down. The focus categories, which make up about 50% of the business, they include certain categories in nutrition, and then they also include healthcare. I'm not sure if we mentioned it on the call yet, but five out of the six focus categories were actually either flat. There was one that was flat, the others were low to mid-single digits up. We had a bit of a weaker situation in healthcare.

Speaker 12

Just maybe commenting on healthcare because you specifically asked. I continue to believe that healthcare is a great end market category for us and a great business. We've had a number of positives also in the third quarter. You know, we actually had wins with several pharma customers. We have a partnership entered with a generics player around sustainability. We opened a coating facility in Malaysia in April with the first air knife coating technology, which we've made a separate announcement on. All of that is good. The volumes in healthcare were slightly down, but we had good positive mix.

Speaker 12

When you go to the volumes, you know, the U.S. winter storm impacted a few sites in terms of both our production but also the customer pull-through. You know, when you look to our customers, you will see that we also had a bit of a weaker cold and flu season. In terms of outside of the focus categories, when you look at what's driven the rest is the other nutrition category, where you see more discretionary categories down. We've spoken about snacks and confectionaries in the past. That's a market and also a customer sort of driven the issue. Some weakness on the fresh and frozen food.

Speaker 12

You know, we also see some, I would say, generally, you know, trends to value-oriented essentials in that category. That should give you a feel. It's not that overall nutrition is down. It was a particular segment of nutrition outside of the focus categories. I hope that makes sense. Thank you.

Speaker 11

Your next question comes from the line of Keith Chau with MST. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi PK, hi Steve. Thanks for taking my question. I can go back to the leverage points, and maybe one to Steve. At the end of the year, the guidance is for a leverage ratio of 3.4 to 3.5 times. Typically heading into the September quarter, your leverage goes up by, call it anywhere between 0.3 and 0.4 times. Given you'll finish the year at an elevated level already, are you expecting to see that step up? Given the higher working capital at the moment and the investment in working capital, should we see an over-recovery of cash in calendar year 2027?

Speaker 14

Yeah, thanks for that. I think the recovery of the cash will definitely occur once we see, you know, supply chains normalize and kind of see some of the consistency rather than the little bit of the volatility. The timing of that, of course, will be dependent upon when we actually see that occur. The probabilities of it happening certainly, you know, as you look out of calendar 2026 into calendar 2027, we would certainly see that as the likely case. There's, of course, some unpredictability to that if the supply chains generally have volatility in it. I think your planning assumption, our planning assumption, that would be relatively consistent with that.

Speaker 14

Relative to this fiscal year-end leverage being modestly up, we'll see some inflection, as you indicated, kind of in a normal, I'll call it, Q1 of the stub period, but we wouldn't expect to end the now stub period with leverage, you know, necessarily above where we're finishing. And then as we mentioned earlier, we would expect real improvement on the leverage as we look into the fiscal and calendar 2027, particularly given the things that we'll be very focused on for our synergy capture being at the levels that we've expected, and would see improvement both at the EBITDA and EPS level from synergy capture during that period of time. Obviously, our price and cost relationships will maintain themselves as neutral per today's conversations.

Speaker 14

No, I think we'll see really some very positive deleveraging as we look out of calendar 2026 and into now calendar and fiscal 2027. It's important to us and our commitment to deleveraging is as we've previously discussed and highly committed.

Speaker 11

We have reached the end of the time we have for the Q&A session. I will now turn the call back to Peter Konieczny for closing remarks.

Speaker 12

Yeah. Thank you, operator. Thank you again for joining us, everyone. I'm sorry we could not get to everyone today. We certainly appreciate the interest, and we hope to see you soon. Thank you very much.

Speaker 11

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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