Ternium Q1 2026 Earnings Report

Ternium EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.09
• Consensus EPS: $0.86
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.23
• One Year Ago EPS: $0.55

Ternium Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $3.93 billion
• Expected Revenue: $3.93 billion
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$8.80 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Ternium Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q1 2026
• Date: 5/5/2026
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, May 6, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 8:00AM ET

Ternium (NYSE:TX) (NYSE:TX) is a leading vertically integrated steel producer with operations across the Americas. The company manufactures a broad range of flat and long steel products, including hot‐rolled and cold‐rolled coils, galvanized and tin-coated sheets, plates, rebars, wire rods, bars and structural sections. These products serve diverse end markets such as automotive, construction, energy, industrial machinery, home appliances and packaging.

Established in 2005 through the consolidation of steel assets in Argentina and Mexico, Ternium has grown to operate major production facilities in Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Central America and the United States. The company’s network includes both large-scale mills and downstream service centers, enabling it to offer customized sizes, finishing options and just-in-time logistics solutions to customers throughout North, Central and South America. Ternium also maintains a raw‐material portfolio that combines iron ore pellets, scrap recycling and in‐house coke and lime production.

Headquartered in Luxembourg, Ternium is part of the Techint Group and is led by President and Chief Executive Officer Daniel Novegil. Since its inception, the company has pursued strategic expansions and modernization projects to improve production efficiency, environmental performance and product quality. Ternium continues to focus on innovation in steelmaking processes, sustainable practices and the development of high-value steel grades to meet evolving market demands.

Ternium Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: The company expects a recovery in Mexican steel demand driven by Plan Mexico, active trade defenses and a new government-industry agreement to prioritize domestically produced steel in public procurement.
• Positive Sentiment: The Pesquería upstream ramp-up is ahead of plan—cold rolling and galvanizing lines near full capacity by October and the slab facility is on schedule—boosting vertical integration and positioning Ternium to benefit from upcoming USMCA rule‑of‑origin changes.
• Positive Sentiment: Adjusted EBITDA rose ~21% sequentially and net income was $372 million, aided by foreign‑exchange and deferred tax gains, with management expecting margins to keep improving despite higher costs.
• Negative Sentiment: Brazil faces rising import pressure (imports up ~30% QoQ) and elevated inventories of imported material, which could weigh on near‑term volumes and pricing until inventories normalize in H2.
• Neutral Sentiment: The company ended Q1 with $327 million net cash but paid $350 million for Usiminas shares and expects to move toward net debt this year; CapEx should decline after Pesquería, supporting future free cash flow, making the net cash impact mixed.

Presentation

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

In Mexico, apparent steel consumption fell around 10% in 2025, driven by uncertainty triggered by U.S. trade actions. In 2026, however, we see an improvement. The Mexican government has been actively working to mitigate the negative effects of U.S. trade measures on the Mexican economy by defending the local industry against unfair imports from Asia. These actions not only support the continued development of the Mexican industry, but are closely aligned with the U.S. government's own trade strategy. Plan Mexico is also central to this effort. It promotes industrial development, increased domestic content in manufacturing, and strengthens regional supply chains. In this same line, last week, the steel industry and the Mexican government signed a landmark agreement to prioritize domestically produced steel in all public procurements, a clear sign of the opportunity ahead.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Taken together, these policies support our expectation of a recovery in Mexican steel demand. In this context, we expect volumes in Mexico to continue improving in the second quarter, driven mainly by the commercial market. The significant destocking that took place across the value chain in 2025 is now giving way to a normalization of apparent demand. Beyond that, we are seeing early movements in several infrastructure projects, which could add meaningful demand in the coming quarters. Turning to our Pesquería project in Mexico, the ramp-up curve of the cold rolling mill and the galvanizing line are running ahead of plan. We expect both lines to be operating close to a full capacity by October. The slab facility is also advancing in line with expectation. This project is central to our strategy.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

It will significantly increase our vertical integration in Mexico, reduce our reliance on externally sourced slabs, and enhance our product capabilities across automotive, industrial, and construction applications. Importantly, as the automotive USMCA rule of origin enter into effects next year, this facility will position Ternium as a key player in meeting a growing demand. In this respect, I am pleased to share that we have been granted a patent in the United States for our new electrical steelmaking process, which will enable us to produce exposed steel at scale. This innovation leverage the integration of direct reduction at the same site. In addition, innovations such as virtual stamping solution, which utilize artificial intelligence to streamline certification process for the automotive industry, reinforcing our drive for operational excellence. This commitment continue to be recognized by our customers.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

In February, we were honored by Ariston Group with their Strategic Partner Award, the highest recognition for quality and partnership. In April, Ternium México received the 2025 John Deere CROP Award and achieved the partner level, John Deere's highest distinction for cost-effective and long-term collaboration. Brazil steel consumption remains broadly stable, with some sectors showing resilience and other facing more pressure. The automotive industry continues to perform well, with production expected to grow around 4% this year. On the other hand, sectors like agribusiness have seen weaker demand. A key challenge in the quarter was a significantly increase in steel imports, up around 30% versus the previous quarter. Import accelerated ahead of the government's anti-dumping measures on cold rolled and coated products.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

This has resulted in elevated inventory levels of imported material in the market, which we expect to normalize by the second half of the year. As these trade defenses measure gain traction and inventories level normalize, we expect to see Usiminas' market share to improve. However, it is also worth noting that import pressures is not limited to China. Volumes from Southeast Asia, particularly South Korea and Vietnam, has increased significantly, reflecting the indirect effect of China oversupply on the region's trade flow. In March, we were honored to welcome President Lula to the official inauguration of the Roberto Rocca Technical School located near our Rio de Janeiro plant. School provides full funded technical education to young people from the surrounding communities, offering them access to a world-class education.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Built with an investment of $50 million, we expect to welcome close to 600 students by next year. In Argentina, at 2024 record one of the lowest steel consumption levels in two decades, the market began to recover in 2025. However, 2026 did not start as we had expected. Demand is growing unequally. Mining, energy, and agriculture are performing well. Automotive remains at reasonable levels. Constructions remain soft. Metal mechanical and home appliance sectors are lagging, affected by weak domestic consumption. As I bring my remarks to a close, I am pleased to share that Ternium has once again been recognized as a sustainability champion by the World Steel Association. This recognition is granted to companies that integrate sustainability into their core strategy, combining environmental management, safety performance, innovation, and responsible community engagement.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Looking ahead, we are constructive on our market and our ability to continue improving performance. In Mexico, the combination of normalizing demand, supportive industrial policies, and the ramp-up of our downstream projects position us well for the quarters ahead. In Brazil, as trade defenses measures gain traction and imports inventory normalize, we expect to see a healthy competitive environment. In Argentina, we continue to monitor the recovery closely while maintaining our operational discipline. Across all our operations, our teams remain focused on driving efficiency and lowering cost, and we're already seeing the benefits. Overall, the recognition we continue to receive from our customers reflects the quality of what we are doing every day. We are confident in Ternium's ability to deliver even stronger performance in the periods ahead. With that, I'd like to move to a review of our quarterly performance. Pablo, please go ahead.

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

Thanks, Máximo, and thanks everybody for participating in our call. Let's review our operation and financial performance for the first quarter of this year. Starting the webcast presentation on page three, we can see that the adjusted EBITDA increased sequentially by 21% in the first quarter, in line with our expectations and reflecting margin improvements. Looking ahead, we expect adjusted EBITDA margin to continue increasing, supported by higher revenue per ton, particularly in Mexico and Brazil, partially offset by higher cost per ton across our main markets. Let's move to the next slide. Net income for the first quarter of 2026 reached $372 million. This reflects improved operating performance, stronger net financial results, primarily driven by foreign exchange gain in Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil, and positive deferred tax results.

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

Deferred tax gain amounted to $122 million, driven mainly by currency fluctuations in Argentina and Brazil and inflation effects in Argentina. Net income in the quarter also included a $48 million loss from the quarterly update of the value of a provision from ongoing litigation related to the acquisition of a participation in Usiminas in 2012. Let's turn to page five to review the steel segment performance. Shipments were broadly in line with the previous quarter. In Mexico, volumes increased, supported by solid commercial market activity. This was driven by more effective trade defenses against unfair imports, healthier inventory level across the value chain, and a seasonal recovery in demand. In Brazil, Usiminas prioritized profitability in the face of increased cost volatility, particularly in energy and logistics, resulting in a modest sequential decline in shipments.

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

In the southern region, demand softened, reflecting weaker industrial activity in Argentina alongside typical seasonal factors, leading to a sequential decrease in shipments. Ahead, we expect shipments to trend higher, mainly driven by Mexico and Argentina, as trade measures gain traction in Mexico and demand conditions gradually improve across both markets. Let's turn to page six to review the performance of our steel segment. Steel cash operating income improved during the period, driven by higher margins resulting from realized prices gains, which were partially offset by higher raw material and purchased slab costs. On next slide, the mining segment reflects a different dynamic. In this case, shipment declined sequentially due to operational disruptions in Brazil caused by the unusual intense rainfall. Finally, let's turn to the cash flow and balance sheet performance on page eight. The company continues to generate strong cash flow from operations.

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

Although this quarter we saw an increase in working capital driven by an increase in trade receivables, mainly due to higher steel prices and volumes in Mexico. We anticipate that sales will grow in the second quarter of this year, likely requiring a further rise in working capital.

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

Capital expenditures continue to reflect our progress in the expansion of our industrial center in Pesquería, now mostly focused on the construction of the slab making facility. We ended the quarter with a net cash position of $327 million. On top of our CapEx needs, the cash position decline included a $350 million payment for the acquisition of the Usiminas shares from Nippon Steel. Partial offset by a $150 million loan collection from TechGen, our non-consolidated energy joint venture that supplies power to our operations in Mexico. This concludes our prepared remarks for the first quarter. We will now be happy to take your questions. Please proceed with the Q&A session.

[Operator]

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, please press raise hand. To withdraw your question, you can leave the queue by clicking on put hand down. Our first question comes from Mr. Rodolfo Angele from JPMorgan. You may proceed.

[Rodolfo Angele, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Hi. Good morning. I think, now you can hear me.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Yes.

[Rodolfo Angele, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Okay. I wanted to just hear your thoughts on two aspects that I think are relevant for ArcelorMittal's future performance. First, there's been a lot of discussion on USMCA. If you could share your thoughts on what happens there and what it means in terms of different scenarios for the company's performance. I also wanted to hear from you a little bit about the expectations for the slab market in terms of pricing outlook for, you know, the remaining of the year, especially. That's all. Thank you.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Thank you, Rodolfo. Let me start with the USMCA question. As you know, there have been a lot of discussion and on talks about USMCA. I believe that there will be a trade deal between U.S. and Mexico. As you know, the U.S. administration, through the USTR and the Mexican government through the Secretariat of Economy, holding meetings. There is a formal meeting on the 25 of May, which is going to start formally the revision or the discussions of the USMCA. Most of that discussion are probably going to be on discussing mainly stricter rule of origin and some other issues that have arisen. I think my thoughts on this is that this is gonna take some time.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

I am positive there is going to be an agreement, but I don't know exactly the timeline. Probably won't be by the 1st of July, and probably would get most of this year. This is, I mean, my thoughts of what it's happening in the USMCA. There is also some discussions going on on the Section 232. As you know, I don't think, My thought is, and I always said, there is no incompatibility between Section 232 and USMCA. It doesn't make sense, makes Mexico subject to 232 in steel, as the U.S. has a steel trade surplus, a very big steel trade surplus with Mexico.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

I know the Mexican administration has also starting stated that there is a priority while the USMCA is negotiate, that there has to be a relief in steel and automotive Section 232. I know they are discussing this during these following weeks. Nevertheless, I think it's important that the Mexican administration, as I said a little bit in my remarks, Rodolfo, has been very proactive in launching initiatives to strengthen the steel consumption in Mexico. While all this is going on, the Plan Mexico, the target measures against unfair competition, the imposition of tariff for countries that don't have trade agreement with Mexico, all this, I think it's a very proactive way of the Mexican government to attack the problems of the Mexican economy while these two things are negotiated.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

In the end, I think USMCA, as I said, is gonna be renewed, probably with much tougher rule of origin, which I think it's a very good thing. I'm not that certain on the timing. Probably the timing it takes a little bit more longer. I hope with this last large answer, I did answer your question, Rodolfo.

[Rodolfo Angele, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Yes, you did. Thank you very much.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

The slab markets, what do you refer with the slab market, exactly?

[Rodolfo Angele, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Just, you know, it's just a market that I think it's more unique overall in terms of how pricing dynamics work. I just wanted to hear your thoughts on what you see, especially on pricing, you know, what do you expect for the coming quarters?

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Prices as it has been in most of steel products has been increasing recently. Clearly, the increase in fuel increases the logistic for slabs, and also there has been some increase in iron ore and in other raw materials, which have made the slab market a little bit more expensive. Do you know I mean, from all our production, our buying of slab is not as big as it used to be because most of the slabs come from our Ternium Brazil facility. Nevertheless, we are buying in the market and we are seeing some increase in that. It's compensate probably with increase in prices in finishing products also.

[Rodolfo Angele, Analyst at JPMorgan]

Okay. Thank you very much.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

You're welcome, Rodolfo.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mrs. Timna Tanners from Wells Fargo Securities. You may proceed.

[Timna Tanners, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Hello?

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Hello. Yes, Timna, we can hear you.

[Timna Tanners, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Oh, fantastic. Sorry.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Yeah

[Timna Tanners, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

ask if I could about a few things. One is to follow up on the USMCA discussions. The U.S. government is more interested in granting relief on tariffs if there's a construction of production in the U.S. Just wondering if you would expand your U.S. presence. Also wondering along those same lines about a hearing about a Mexican dumping case against U.S. galvanized imports, if you could address those.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Timna, we are not thinking in making some production or increased production in the U.S. now. We don't have that as a plan today. Second, there is a dumping case against cold rolling products. There's no dumping case against galvanized in Mexico. At least to the U.S. There is a dumping case in galvanized against Vietnam and I think other countries going on.

[Timna Tanners, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Okay. I've heard that Mexico was working on one against the U.S. I thought that could be positive for your operations. We'll stay tuned there. Second, can you expand a bit more on the mention of electrical steel, electrical sorry, EAF capabilities to make exposed automotive and remind us what might be the timeframe for doing that?

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Yes, for sure. I mean, as you probably remember, the steel shop is gonna start the ramp up in the last quarter of between the last quarter of this year and early next year. As you know, the operation, it's, I mean, the facility is huge. I hope all of you can one day visit it because it's worth visiting it, the facility. The ramp up facility, the ramp up curve should take at least all 2027. In the meantime, during all this ramp up, we are going to work with the automotive customers to certify our products. A certification process for all automotive products, not only the exposed material, but also all the other parts of the car needs certification.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

We are working very close with all of them because they are very eager to accelerate the certification process. We are working already with them on how to accelerate the certification process as much as possible. We have recently increased the capacity of our Ternium lab in Pesquería, which we are working in certifying all the lab equipment, so we can certify part of the process they need in that site. And, and the, I mean, the capacity that this EAF is gonna have to have the capacity of producing exposed material in a sustainable way and in a continuous way is gonna be unique because of the process we are doing and all the patents we are developing, especially to decrease all the nitrogen that the EAF usually have.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

This is a unique process that we are developing with our technical people and the supplier of the equipment, that is Tenova, a sister company of us. I mean, again, the timing should be around next year. Probably by the third and fourth quarter of next year that we are going to supply in a sustainable way to the automotive industry.

[Timna Tanners, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

You'd be qualified for 2028 or qualified.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Yeah

[Timna Tanners, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

2027?

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

No. The idea is to qualify everything for 2028.

[Timna Tanners, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Got it. Okay. Great.

[Timna Tanners, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities]

Thank you.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

You're welcome.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Alfonso Salazar from Scotiabank. Please, Mr. Alfonso, you may proceed.

[Alfonso Salazar, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Hey. Sorry.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Yeah

[Alfonso Salazar, Analyst at Scotiabank]

A couple questions on my end. The first one is regarding the outlook in Argentina. I want to see if you can give us more color on what's going on and what are your expectations for future demand. Also try to understand better what's the situation regarding imports. It seems to be more problematic than in the past. Also, exports from Argentina to other Latin American countries. What is the outlook there? Because of same thing, you know, imports from to other countries from Asia. The second question is, some comments on the decarbonization trends in Latin America.

[Alfonso Salazar, Analyst at Scotiabank]

It seems that we always knew that it was going to take, you know, longer than Europe, but any comment on what is the outlook there as well, these trends of decarbonization and green steel?

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Yeah. Thank you, Alfonso. Outlook in Argentina, I mean, in the short term, shipments in the second quarter are going to increase because as you know, the first quarter in Argentina is always a seasonably low, low quarter, no January and February usually are holidays in Argentina, the demand is quite Further down the road, I think some of the sectors present a good opportunity: mining, oil and gas, and agriculture. They are compensate by others like mechanical goods and like electro.

[Company Representative at Ternium]

White goods.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

electrical and.

[Company Representative at Ternium]

White goods.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

White goods, sorry. That demand is not very good in the final goods. It's gonna be a little bit better, but we don't expect a huge growth compared to 2025. Imports, although there has been a lot of talks about imports, we are not seeing imports in our products. We had seen some imports in the value chain, but these are stable today. I think the problem in our value chain is that the demand or the consumption is not very good. That the situation we have in Argentina. Decarbonization in Latin America, you're saying the path is lower than in Europe. I think the pace in Europe has also decreased a lot.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

I mean, there's a lot of project that has been announced in Europe that today are not going through, and they continue building up in blast furnace. In Latin America, I can say two things. I think, one, there is increasing in Mexico, where you have the opportunity to change from coal to natural gas. Mexico will continue on a path of having probably the lowest steel production emissions per ton of production of probably the world. In Brazil, there's more difficulty to change blast furnace, so the decarbonization there is going to go through by small decreases by efficiency, but still working with blast furnace.

[Alfonso Salazar, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Thank you. The outlook for other Latin American countries, demand in other countries that you source from Argentina?

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

No. The regional countries, I mean, usually they don't have a huge impact in the shipments. We'll continue to ship to Uruguay, Paraguay. Those are the countries that we ship from Argentina, but the consumption there is marginal. It's not gonna have a huge impact in our shipments.

[Alfonso Salazar, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Fair enough. Thank you.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

You're welcome, Alfonso.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Marcio Farid from Goldman Sachs. Please, Mr. Marcio, you may proceed.

[Marcio Farid, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Great. Morning. Thanks for the opportunity. Obviously another follow-up on USMCA and Section 232. I think what's changed maybe this time is that obviously Mexico has put some import barriers to steel coming into the U.S., coming into Mexico, to try and reduce triangulation as well or rerouting. I'm just wondering, right? Once assuming, you know, Section 232 to Mexico is either removed or reduced, do you think the competitive environment would be different versus where we were, you know, a few years ago when we did not have those import barriers? I remember well, I think Mexico imports about 40% of all the steel that you need.

[Marcio Farid, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Just wondering if you can think about a structural change in terms of the competitive environment between North America or Mexico and the U.S. Second point, demand was very weak in Mexico last year. I think it was down 10%. Part of the reason was, as you mentioned, de-stocking, but also weak activity as companies wait for better visibility on their relationship with the U.S. You mentioned restocking has been helping pricing. I'm just wondering if you're seeing demand or activity also recovering, or we need to see a final agreement with the U.S. for investments to really resume in Mexico. Those are my questions. Thank you.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Thank you, Marcio. I mean, the first question about the triangulation and the efforts that the Mexican administration is doing control this. I think there is already a structural change. I think, the Mexican administration, way before Trump was elected and all this discussion begin, was very focused on increasing the value-added content of all what is produced in Mexico. I mean, Mexico was a huge exporter, but the value added of those product, the regional content of those products were not very high. Plan Mexico, which President Sheinbaum already announced in the campaign, in her campaign, was a plan for doing exactly this, for changing this dynamic.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

All the things that the Mexican administration is doing, as you mentioned, are a way of decreasing the dependency of Asian products, especially in those product that Mexico or the region is able to produce. The clear example of that is steel. I think there is already a structural change, and probably this is gonna be even better, once the 232, as you said, is reduced or removed, from the site between Mexico and the U.S. Clearly you are correct in your assessment. Regarding the second question, Marcio, there is a demand increase in Mexico. It's not as high. World Steel is has just released that the demand in Mexico is gonna grow around 4% in the year.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Considering that the demand decreased by 10%, as you said, in 2025, it's not a huge increase, but it is an increase, and we are seeing some recovery in demand. I expect that this is gonna be higher once the USMCA, where the USMCA is going is more clear. We are seeing this increase, at least in a small space, but we are seeing it today. I hope that answered the question, Marcio.

[Marcio Farid, Analyst at Goldman Sachs]

Yes, for sure. Thank you very much for the details.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

You're welcome.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Rafael Barcellos by Bradesco BBI. Please, Mr. Barcellos, you may proceed.

[Rafael Barcellos, Analyst at Bradesco BBI]

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First question, last week, the Mexican government signed an agreement, which I believe they called as an agreement for the promotion of the Mexican steel industry, right? I mean, when do you expect that these measures, you know, will finally translate into, you know, incremental demand for the country? What else you think the government can, you know, promote to incentivize the sector in the short term?

[Rafael Barcellos, Analyst at Bradesco BBI]

As a second question, in your outlook, you know, you mentioned a bit of the cost pressure that we have seen, you know, for all industries, and I understand that, you know, steel is not an exception. If you can elaborate a bit more on what we can expect for cost in the third Q, for example, could be helpful. Thank you.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Thank you, Rafael. Well, the agreement in Mexico, as I said, is an agreement between the government and the steel industry of Mexico to commit that all of the government use of steel is Mexican steel used in those main infrastructure. I think it's very important because there was already a commitment to use Mexican steel. In some cases, especially all this new infrastructure that is coming by Pemex, by CFE, that is the electricity company, that are joint investment between public and private sectors. This is gonna be an impact in the demand of steel, especially with all the investment in gas lines, in renewable energy, solar and wind. You know, it has a huge consumption of steel.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

It is important in that sense. I don't expect the investments to start in the next quarter or the following, but I think that by year-end, all this effort that the government is doing will have an impact in demand. Too early to say how much, but it's gonna have an impact. The second question Sorry?

[Rafael Barcellos, Analyst at Bradesco BBI]

The cost.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

The cost. Well, I mean, it's gonna be an impact in cost, but for Ternium, it's not gonna be a huge impact. The big impact is gonna be in logistic and import of some slabs, and some logistic cost in Brazil and probably in Argentina. It's probably that is gonna compensate, as we said in the outlook, by also the price increases. I think that the real risk, let me say, of the conflict in the Middle East is that if it's not resolved quickly, it could cost more a recession. We are thinking that that's the real risk for us. We see a little bit increase in cost, but again, more than compensate by the increased prices of steel are having.

[Rafael Barcellos, Analyst at Bradesco BBI]

As a follow-up, sorry.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Yeah.

[Rafael Barcellos, Analyst at Bradesco BBI]

Can you just elaborate on what you're seeing as for cost trends in the third Q? On the price side, I understand that, you know, prices are outpacing, you know, the cost increase. Can you just help us understand in your view, what is the main driver for this recent good price momentum that we are seeing in Mexico?

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Well, the good momentum I think is everywhere. You see in Europe prices increasing. You see in Brazil. You even see in China prices increasing. I think part of that is motivated by the increase of cost. It is bigger that increase in Southeast Asia and is bigger in Europe than it is in the Americas. I think that's the motivation, Rafael.

[Rafael Barcellos, Analyst at Bradesco BBI]

Okay. Thank you.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Caio Ribeiro from Bank of America. Please, Mr. Ribeiro, you may proceed.

[Caio Ribeiro, Analyst at Bank of America]

All right. Good morning. Thank you for the opportunity. I have two questions linked to your investments at Pesquería. First off, as you complete your upstream investments this year, what are some of the investment avenues that you're contemplating right now, right? Where does the MUSA expansion fit in within your list of priorities? Secondly, assuming that you don't green light another investment right away or, you know, a large investment like the Pesquería upstream, downstream investments that you've done in the past years, those CapEx figures, they should drop considerably, you know, versus your recent run rate. Which together with that earnings increase that you'll get from your investments should drive significantly higher free cash flow generation in the coming years, right?

[Caio Ribeiro, Analyst at Bank of America]

With that in mind, just wondering how you think about dividend payments going forward. You know, is there room in your view to boost those to cover a larger part of that positive free cash flow generation that you should have in the coming years? Those are my questions. Thank you.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Thank you, Caio. Well, yeah, the upstream investment, as you know, will, as I said before, we will start the ramp up curve by the end of the year or early next year. I mean, we're still, but it's still a long way to go. Today, the big investment that, as you say, we are analyzing is the expansion of Musa. Usiminas continue to analyze the different alternatives we have regarding CapEx and the cost of production and the material that we can take and on each one of these alternative. By the end of the year or early next year, we have to take a decision, or we will have a decision on where to go on that.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Those are, so far, the investments we are considering. I mean, we are not seeing yet a necessity or, I mean, the willingness to make another large investment so close as to bring in Pesquería project online. Yeah, CapEx is gonna decrease. As you remember, 2025, we have $2.5 billion of CapEx. This year it's gonna be lower than that, much lower than that. Probably in 2027 is gonna be even lower, around $1.2 billion or $1 billion. Yeah. I mean, regarding the dividend, if the numbers improve and we have generation. As you know, we have a track record that Our dividend has a very good yield.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Although we decrease a little bit the dividend, or the board decided to decrease a little bit the dividend because of the uncertainty, which I completely agree. Still the yield dividend with the price of Ternium ADR today, it's around 5%. We will probably continue with this policy of taking a good dividend.

[Caio Ribeiro, Analyst at Bank of America]

That's clear. Thank you very much.

[Operator]

Our next question comes from Mr. Caio Greiner by UBS. Please, Mr. Caio, you may proceed.

[Caio Greiner, Analyst at UBS]

Hello. Good morning, everyone. Two questions. The first one on Brazil. I wanted to hear your thoughts on the strategy that the company has following the recent anti-dumping duties implementation for the operations that you have there, especially at Usiminas. I wanted to know if you're gonna favor over the next few quarters and maybe even years, higher prices, higher profitability, value over volume, somewhat of what we saw during the first quarter, or if the strategy is going to be more in the sense of gaining market share, expanding volumes. If that's the case, I wanted to know, how much do you see in terms of volume gain potential over the next, again, quarters and years?

[Caio Greiner, Analyst at UBS]

If you believe that you have enough capacity for this amount of volumes that you could increase going forward. If you don't, what would be the strategy there? Relighting a blast furnace? Could it be on the pipeline or is that more in the sense of just purchasing more shares and raising capacity utilization? The second one, just a follow-up to the previous capital allocation question. Pablo, Máximo Vedoya, you mentioned that you don't have plans of doing another large CapEx project while you still have the Usiminas investment.

[Caio Greiner, Analyst at UBS]

Could you still maybe could it be in the on the pipeline to again perform corporate simplification measures, more bottom-up or in-house initiatives like the Usiminas stake that you acquired during the first quarter or anything related to Argentina? That would be very, very helpful. Thank you.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Thank you, Caio. I mean, if we have to choose between the two strategy you said, probably is the first one, and we don't want to produce more in order to sell something that the market doesn't need. We will always prefer the first strategy. It's clear that, with all the measures that the Brazilian government is taking, as I said, Brazil is kind of a little bit late. I mean, Mexico, U.S., Canada, Europe, even India are taking measures a little bit more quickly than Brazil. Nevertheless, what the trade measures in Brazil, it's a very good first step in the very right direction. If unfair trade comes down, probably we'll increase also volume.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

we are very gonna be very cautious. regarding our capital allocation, Pablo?

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

Oh, thanks for let me answer one question.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Welcome

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

Hi, Caio. How are you? Yes, regarding capital allocation, and following on what Máximo said before, we are in the middle of a huge capital allocation structure, take into consideration the rest of the capital expenditure in the facility in México, with the dividend payment and with the capital working capital increase because of the increasing volumes and the increasing prices that we saw. This year, as you know, we will be moving from a net cash position to a net debt position. Next year, you are totally right, we will be reducing the level of CapEx, we will sustaining probably the other outflows of capital.

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

This could lead to an increase on our position, our cash position, which is not bad and would prepare us for any opportunity that may appear in the market. Among these opportunities, you know that we have talked a lot in the past and we have worked a lot in order to simplify our corporate structure, this is our on our list of priorities. If there is an opportunity to move in that direction, clearly something that we need to fully analyze and to carefully analyze because it's not that you have an opportunity and you can take it immediately. You need to do all the calculations in order to see the best way to proceed. Together with that, as Máximo Vedoya already explained, continuing with the dividend is a policy that we have.

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

If there is opportunities to improve that, if the number reflect it's something that we will consider. Additionally to that, we take, if you want some rest, analyzing the next CapEx plan, internal CapEx plan, because the effort that we have to put in order to take this project to work is very significant. As Máximo explained, we need to go through the ramp-up, through certification, so this takes some time. That's why usually when we have this big CapEx plan, we take at least one or two years to design the new ones. As also was explained here, we still believe that Ternium has opportunities to grow in all our markets, especially Mexico and in Brazil.

[Pablo Brizzio, CFO at Ternium]

There will be opportunities for us to analyze, but it will take some time for us to analyze them and present it to you.

[Caio Greiner, Analyst at UBS]

Maybe just to follow up to the first actually to the second one as well. In terms of volume gains in Brazil, Máximo, you mentioned that if an unfair trade comes down, you should be able to increase volumes as well. Do you see the current capacity that you have in Brazil as enough for the volume gain that you could have for an expected market share gain? Could you have think about an alternative of, again, relighting one of your blast furnaces there? Think about maybe relighting or revamping Cubatão. Thank you very much.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Yeah, Caio. I mean, today we have spare capacity in Brazil, especially in the Cubatão plant. As you know, it's a plant that is not working at full capacity, and we will also have slabs available from our Ternium facility in Rio once we don't have to ship as much slabs to Ternium México because of the new mill coming, the upstream project coming online. I mean, yes, we have capacity in Brazil to grow, and I think it will be enough, I mean, if imports go down in Brazil.

[Caio Greiner, Analyst at UBS]

Thank you very much, gentlemen.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

You're welcome, Caio.

[Operator]

That concludes the question and answer session. I would like to turn it back over to Mr. Máximo Vedoya for closing remarks. Please, Mr. Máximo Vedoya, you may proceed.

[Máximo Vedoya, CEO at Ternium]

Well, thank you very much all for joining us. We welcome, as usual, any feedback or additional question that you have. In the meantime, have a great day. Bye.

[Operator]

Ternium's conference call has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect and have a good day.

Participants

Executives

• Máximo Vedoya, CEO
• Pablo Brizzio, CFO
• Company Representative

Analysts

• Alfonso Salazar, Analyst at Scotiabank
• Caio Greiner, Analyst at UBS
• Caio Ribeiro, Analyst at Bank of America
• Marcio Farid, Analyst at Goldman Sachs
• Rafael Barcellos, Analyst at Bradesco BBI
• Rodolfo Angele, Analyst at JPMorgan
• Timna Tanners, Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities