Sera Prognostics Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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May 6, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Launched a third partnership program (reaching over 350 providers across three states) and is engaging with 13 payers in 15 states, pursuing a paced rollout of ~one large partner program per quarter to drive provider adoption and referral pathways for PreTRM.
  • Positive Sentiment: Strengthened the evidence base after publication of the full PRIME trial and related European commentary, with the PREPARE survey accepted for publication and multiple PRIME sub‑analyses (including health economics and Medicaid outcomes) planned for 2026 to support reimbursement and guideline inclusion.
  • Negative Sentiment: Financial performance remains modest: Q1 revenue was just $14,000 (down from $38,000 a year ago) and net loss was $8.4 million, and management cautioned 2026 revenue may stay uneven as commercialization and reimbursement efforts ramp.
  • Positive Sentiment: Completed a business realignment to shift spend toward commercialization and medical engagement, targeting nearly $10 million in annualized operating expense reductions and reporting $86.8 million in cash and securities with an expected cash runway through 2029.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Strategic pivot reduces internal R&D/Clinical Ops headcount and emphasizes external partnerships to develop future tests, a move that could speed market access but also lowers internal development capacity until new collaborations are formalized.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Sera Prognostics Q1 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Sera Prognostics first quarter 2026 financial results conference call. At this time, all lines are in listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question and answer session. If at any time during this call you require immediate assistance, please press star zero for the operator. Please be advised that this call is being recorded today, Wednesday, May 6, 2026. I will now turn the call over to our first speaker today, Jennifer Zibuda, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Jennifer Zibuda
Jennifer Zibuda
Head of Investor Relations at Sera Prognostics

Thank you, operator. Welcome to Sera Prognostics first quarter fiscal year 2026 earnings conference call. At the close of market today, Sera Prognostics released its financial results for the quarter ended March 31st, 2026. Presenting for the company today will be Zhenya Lindgardt, President and CEO, and Austin Aerts, our CFO. During the call, we will review the financial results we released today, after which we will host a question and answer session. If you've not had a chance to review our quarterly earnings release, it can be found on our website at sera.com. This call can be heard live via webcast at sera.com, and a recording will be archived in the investors section of our website.

Jennifer Zibuda
Jennifer Zibuda
Head of Investor Relations at Sera Prognostics

Please note that some of the information presented today may contain projections or other forward-looking statements about events and circumstances that have not yet occurred, including plans and projections for our business, future financial results, and market trends and opportunities. These statements are based on management's current expectations, the actual events or results may differ materially and adversely from those expectations for a variety of reasons. We refer you to the documents the company files from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, specifically the company's annual report on Form 10-K, its quarterly reports on Form 10-Q, and its current reports on Form 8-K. These documents identify important risk factors that could cause the actual results to differ materially from those contained in our projections and other forward-looking statements. I will now turn the call over to Zhenya.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Thank you, Jennifer, and thank you everyone for joining us today. Given that we reported full-year results just over six weeks ago, I'll focus my remarks on several key developments that continue to advance our commercial strategy and expand access to PreTRM. Following the publication of the full PRIME Study results in January, our primary focus in the first quarter was building awareness with both clinicians and broader stakeholders. Our education and outreach efforts were designed to broaden understanding of preterm birth risk and prevention, including among audiences that are difficult to reach through traditional healthcare channels. From a provider engagement standpoint, we maintained a strong presence across key clinical forums, including the SMFM Annual Meeting in February and more recently, the ACOG Annual Clinical and Scientific Meeting.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

At SMFM, we highlighted key clinical evidence and engaged directly with maternal fetal medicine specialists on PreTRM's role in risk stratification and early intervention. We also engaged with SMFM leadership to discuss PRIME study outcomes. At ACOG, we built on that momentum with a targeted product theater that showcased both the PRIME data and practical implementation strategies, underscoring how PreTRM can be seamlessly integrated into routine clinical care. We have been featured in several targeted podcasts this year, which complements our presence at medical meetings and extends our reach. In March, the SHE MD Podcast featured an interview with Hailey Bieber discussing her pregnancy and the PreTRM Test, which she received under the care of Dr. Aliabadi, SHE MD co-host and Sera customer. This generated a high level of awareness of PreTRM, given Hailey's global visibility and social following, along with a subsequent People magazine exclusive interview.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

The episode surpassed half a million views and continued to drive awareness. We engaged with SHE MD to record a new podcast episode releasing May 14th to coincide with National Women's Health Week. This interview will feature a conversation on the science behind Sera, the clinical evidence from PRIME, and how the PreTRM Test needs broad awareness and should be considered a future standard of care. The episode discusses Dr. Aliabadi's experience with PreTRM Tests over the last few years and the value of prevention and evidence-based risk identification. We hope you will all tune in next week. We will also be featured on Medscape's Hear From Her: The Women in Healthcare Leadership Podcast, engaging in conversation with the podcast host, Jelena Spyropoulos, and Dr. Mollie McDonnold, maternal fetal medicine specialist at St. David's Women's Center of Texas in Austin, Texas.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

The episode dives into the realities of preterm birth, the need for proper intervention, and what can be done to help patients. Together, these media efforts continue to drive awareness across patients and providers, policymakers, and payers who play an important role in improving pregnancy outcomes. Turning to our commercial progress, our efforts during the quarter remained focused on building sustainable access points and referral pathways that we expect to support our long-term volume and revenue. Adding to our two live programs, we launched our third partnership program during the quarter, further expanding education and access to PreTRM.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

This program is expected to reach over 350 providers across three states, expanding our clinical footprint and advancing earlier identification and intervention for at-risk pregnancies. Beyond these established pro-programs, we are contracting with additional partners and expect to provide more detail as these initiatives transition from contracting into live implementation. In parallel, we are now engaged in active discussions with 13 payers across 15 states, reflecting our strategy to deepen relationships with a focused set of target markets. We believe this concentrated approach is more effective in driving meaningful implementation and adoption than pursuing broader but less integrated engagement. Across all of these efforts, our priorities remain execution, reimbursement, physician awareness, clinical integration, and provider adoption. We view these steps as foundational to broader coverage and scale over time.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

In addition to reimbursement, we are making steady progress in our efforts to drive guideline inclusion while continuing to expand the evidence base supporting PreTRM. As discussed in our year-end call, European expert commentary on the PRIME trial was published in The Journal of Maternal-Fetal & Neonatal Medicine in March. The authors emphasized that current preterm birth prevention strategies failed to identify the majority of women who ultimately deliver preterm and highlighted the alignment of the PreTRM approach with existing European healthcare systems. In March, results from the PREPARE survey were accepted for publication in the Journal of Women's Health. This survey examined preterm birth awareness and risk perception among women across five European countries and identified a meaningful gap between perceived awareness and actionable understanding, reinforcing the need for earlier and more standardized risk communication. We look forward to the formal publication expected in May.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Together, these publications support our stakeholder engagement efforts in Europe and underscore the global relevance of risk-based preterm birth prevention as healthcare systems increasingly emphasize prevention, education, and cost-effective maternal care. Looking ahead, we remain on track to publish several additional PRIME sub-analyses in 2026, including a highly anticipated health economic study, Medicaid population outcomes of the PRIME study, and a focus analysis of first-time moms, further strengthening the clinical and economic foundation for adoption. During the quarter, we also continued to advance our advocacy strategy. Preterm birth is not only a clinical challenge, but a public health and policy issue. We're engaging with stakeholders across multiple states to monitor and, where appropriate, support legislative initiatives and policy discussions focused on earlier identification and prevention, particularly in Medicaid and value-based care settings.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

We also recently launched a targeted letter-writing campaign designed to encourage physicians and patients to engage with state Medicaid programs on reimbursement for the PreTRM test. The initiative is intended to amplify at the local level the existing clinical voice calling for access for at-risk populations. To date, we've seen encouraging participation with multiple letters submitted across several states reflecting growing physician advocacy and awareness. We believe these grassroots efforts will play an important role in advancing broader coverage discussions over time. Through these efforts, we continue to build awareness and alignment well in advance of formal coverage decisions and to help policymakers understand both the clinical and the economic burden of preterm birth. We view advocacy as an important complement to our commercial and scientific strategies. In Europe, we continue to make progress towards commercialization readiness.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

We remain on track for a mid-year submission of our CE marking dossier and have had constructive discussions with regulators and clinical stakeholders. Engagement with our European advisor group continues to reinforce alignment around clinical utility, evidence requirements, and implementation considerations. On capital deployment, we have completed the next phase of our evolution from a clinical stage company to a commercial organization driven to secure reimbursement and revenue. Following comprehensive business review, we realigned resources, identified significant operational efficiencies, and streamlined R&D and G&A functions. We are prioritizing investments in payer engagement, market access, and clinical adoption of PreTRM. As part of this realignment, we are intentionally shifting capital away from R&D and Clinical Operations towards commercial and medical activities that directly support access and adoption.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Over time, this results in a meaningfully higher proportion of our operating spend focused on commercialization and medical engagement, with R&D becoming a smaller share of our overall expense base as we move into 2027 and beyond. These actions are expected to reduce our base operating expenses by nearly $10 million annually while enhancing our ability to focus capital on commercialization efforts. At this new operating level, we expect that our existing cash and cash equivalents will be sufficient to fund our operating expenses and capital expenditure requirements through 2029. By extending our runway by an additional year, we have positioned the company to capitalize on meaningful growth expected over the next 12 months and to achieve key access and commercialization milestones in the years to come.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

To wrap up, the first quarter was characterized by awareness building and intentional positioning, expanding access points, strengthening referral pathways, advancing advocacy efforts, and continuing to build the scientific foundation necessary for long-term adoption. Everything we've discussed today reflects a consistent strategy focused on establishing the prerequisites for durable, scalable adoption. While these adoption cycles take time, we remain encouraged by the level of engagement we are seeing and confident that the foundation we are laying will support meaningful long-term pull-through. With that, I'll turn the call over to Austin.

Austin Aerts
Austin Aerts
CFO at Sera Prognostics

Thanks, Zhenya, good afternoon, everyone. Revenue for the quarter was $14,000 compared to $38,000 in the first quarter of 2025. As expected, revenue in the quarter remained modest, reflecting the timing and nature of our geographically targeted commercialization strategy and our ongoing effort to build advocacy and awareness following the PRIME publication. Operating expenses for the quarter were $9.4 million, up slightly from $9.3 million in the prior year period, consistent with our expectations and reflecting disciplined cost management alongside continued investment in evidence generation, regulatory preparation, and advocacy activities. As discussed, following our business review, we expect to reduce our operating expense base by nearly $10 million on an annualized basis.

Austin Aerts
Austin Aerts
CFO at Sera Prognostics

The benefit in 2026 will be limited due to the phasing of activities and related charges, with the majority of the savings expected to be realized in 2027 and beyond. Research and development expenses were $3.0 million compared to $3.3 million in 2025. With the PRIME study now published, R&D expenses will continue to decrease as we focus resources on activities that more directly drive commercialization and awareness building. Selling general and administrative expenses were $6.3 million versus $5.9 million in the prior year, reflecting our transition from clinical stage investments toward targeted commercial initiatives and strategic headcount. Net loss for the quarter was $8.4 million compared to a net loss of $8.2 million in the first quarter of 2025.

Austin Aerts
Austin Aerts
CFO at Sera Prognostics

We ended March 31st, 2026, with $86.8 million in cash equivalents, and available for sale securities. Based on our measured commercialization strategy and a more sustainable cost base resulting from the activities discussed earlier, we believe our capital resources will be sufficient to fund the company across significant adoption and commercial milestones through 2029. As Zhenya outlined, our strategy prioritizes building durable prerequisites for adoption. From a financial perspective, that means revenue in 2026 could remain modest and uneven as we continue pushing reimbursement, awareness and advocacy campaigns, and as programs move from setup to implementation, with increasing pull-through anticipated later in the year and into 2027. In summary, the first quarter reflects continued financial discipline alongside steady progress in laying the groundwork for broader adoption. We remain focused on execution as these initiatives mature.

Austin Aerts
Austin Aerts
CFO at Sera Prognostics

With that, let's open the line for questions. Operator.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Should you have a question, please press the star followed by the number one on your touch-tone phone. You will hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press the star followed by the number two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before pressing any keys. Please be advised to ask one question and one follow-up. Your question comes from Tycho Peterson from Jefferies. Please go ahead.

Analyst at Jefferies

Hey, team. This is Lauren on for Tycho. A few from me. First on the partner program. Could we get maybe a little bit color on the kind of profile of the third partner, and kind of how it compares to the first two? In terms of kind of the required cadence throughout the rest of the year to hit the goal of five to seven partner programs, what that's gonna look like for the next couple quarters. Second, for the new reps, I think you've talked about before how it could take couple quarters to kind of see density of adoption and increased productivity. Are you measuring anything in terms of tests per rep per month or other KPIs that you're targeting for the second half of the year for these reps? Thanks.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Lauren, thank you so much for the questions. On the programs, indeed, very exciting. The way we planned our pipeline of the potential programs is to launch roughly one a quarter to make sure that we swarm the organization and stand them up well. Each program typically is a combination of a payer and provider groups to ensure that the pull-through can happen on the ground in the offices quickly. We've learned over the last couple of years that it takes a few months to iron out how the patients who test for higher risk of preterm birth get cared for by the physician offices with the intervention bundle. We make it as seamlessly integrated into the workflow of those offices as possible.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

For us, each of these programs, that's why one a quarter, roughly, and we're right on track with that with another launch this quarter. We first select how will the test get paid for, engage on reimbursement, then, with the payers, figure out what is the set of providers that are going to partner with us to adopt the test and get them ready for seamless integration to their workflow and delivery of the, of the intervention bundle. That is critical for fast recruitment, and delivery of the test to the participant, which of course in turn gives the results to, both payers and providers faster.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

It's in all of the partners' interests in these programs to prepare well to get to, you know, for us to revenue, for them to impact faster. For many programs, we are engaged deeply with the state as well. On a quarterly basis, we report out the progress of the programs to the state Medicaid agencies, and these are usually public forums where other payers are present. Another reason why one a quarter is because there's a fair bit of follow-up with other payers in the state that have the Medicaid plans who are starting to also reach out and want to participate. We're excited to report that our pipeline of payers that we're engaged with is growing steadily from 10 payers in 13 states, which we reported last quarter, to 13 payers in 15 states.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

We're still sticking to our target states, but what we're seeing happen is the payers that we're running the program with now for six to nine months, are introducing us to other parts of their organization that cover plans in other states, which is exactly what we were hoping for, and expanding with these payers into other regions. That's why we're pacing it one a quarter roughly, and you can certainly anticipate us announcing one per quarter.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Of course, we'll go faster if we can go faster, but I described the activities so that you get a feel for what an undertaking it is to stand up these pretty substantial provider institutions who partner with us, obviously, of course, because we, with the payers, select large volume institutions so that we could get the density of test ordering, after we get reimbursement, to go faster and the pull-through to be clear, for about once a quarter to give us three months to execute on the launch of the program. Does that answer the first part of your question?

Analyst at Jefferies

Yeah, that's helpful color. Thank you.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Perfect. The second question, of course. Rep productivity is critical. Actually, our chief commercial officer and our head of sales, that's exactly how they engage with Austin and me on our forecasting on the number of reps and the number of tests per month per rep that is anticipated, so that we can goal the reps and drive towards steady progress. Of course, we're cautiously optimistic, but we want to watch it for another few quarters. We are seeing these metrics move. The question behind the question probably is, when are you guys going to report on some of these metrics? Let us see the steady progress on them internally first, and as soon as we see the steady up and up, we will start reporting on those.

Analyst at Jefferies

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Appreciate it. Thanks, Laura.

Operator

Thank you. Your next question comes from Dan Brennan from TD Cowen. Please go ahead.

Dan Brennan
Dan Brennan
Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. Thank you. Thanks for the questions. Maybe first one just on, you both talked about the shift to a more direct commercial effort, maybe pulling back some resources on the R&D side, extend the cash runway. Just, I guess, what prompted the shift? It kinda makes sense logically, but I'm just wondering, kind of, is there any feedback in the market about timing, how long it's gonna take, or was this in discussion with the board? Just maybe a little color behind that.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Dan, thank you for the question. It's a very logical one. There's actually two root causes that drove that happening now. First, of course, as you know, the R&D and Clinical Operations efforts, both of these groups, were incredibly focused on PRIME, and that was a seven-year effort, if you can believe it, with very, very heavy resourcing devoted to that. As we're shifting towards now publishing as much as possible with a couple of dozen publications in the pipeline from our data, we realized that we need less capacity specifically for our preterm birth product, R&D and Clinical Operations capacity. Of course, we have a pipeline of other products that we're working on. We had inbound interest from partners to collaborate on R&D and Clinical Operations efforts in developing new tests.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

What you're really seeing as the first impetus is the less demand on R&D and Clinical Operations capacity internally, and the second one is the demand externally to continue developing the tests. As soon as we lock in these partnerships, of course, we'll communicate all of those to you. You can imagine, our R&D proteomics platform is a great asset with a biobank of thousands and perhaps tens of thousands of samples, which will allow us to support other diagnostic and screening tests in pregnancy, perhaps also support therapeutics of screening in for eligibility for drug interventions in pregnancy.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

You can imagine that's a strategic move, as well as just simply less demand internally for now until we pick up in this collaborative model on other assets. That's the answer on the R&D side. Does that help?

Dan Brennan
Dan Brennan
Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

Yep. Yeah, that helps. Yep. No, very logical. Maybe just a couple other quick ones. Just on the, I think previously you talked about low single-digit thousand volumes this year. Is that still on track or just maybe kind of how should we think about that?

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Dan, I didn't hear you quite well. A low single-digit thousand volumes?

Dan Brennan
Dan Brennan
Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

I was talking about, volumes for 2026.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

I got you. I got you.

Dan Brennan
Dan Brennan
Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

Yeah. How do we think about it?

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Yeah, that's not unreasonable. That's not unreasonable. As you know, we don't report the volume of orders, but it's certainly not an unreasonable number to be thinking about. Given your question, Dan, in our conversations, of course, we'll as soon as we see steadiness, we'll start reporting on it. Yes, that assumption is not unreasonable.

Dan Brennan
Dan Brennan
Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

Got it. Maybe just on, you know, the first Medicaid program that began, I think of, you know, a little over a year ago, when can you see that program potentially turn into a positive coverage decision, do you think?

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Great question. I believe I even talked through the timeline for that particular program. We believe it will take us, it took us about six months to stand it up with EMR integration and all of the provider setup, to provide care management for the patients. Actually that set of collaborators are now piloting a digital tool with us that allows the providers to deliver care management a lot more efficiently with weekly symptom check tooling. We're looking forward to reporting on how that goes 'cause that is something that will remove a significant barrier in terms of taking the OBGYN nursing capacity from the office for that care management.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

It took us six months to do that. It will take us about nine to 12 months to fully recruit the program. About four to five months for the patients to deliver, obviously on a rolling basis. A couple of months to collect data on the outcomes, NICU admissions, health of the baby, weight of the baby, all of the other outcomes we typically would monitor in these implementation studies. Of course, take it to the state. I will tell you the state is not waiting for it. The state already engaged with us on for that particular program on what would coverage mean, why is it needed. We are mobilizing our clinical advocates in that state, and that's what I meant when I said our letter-writing campaign.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

We're asking every provider to write to the state Medicaid and advocate why this test needs to be paid for in the state for all of the pregnant moms there. You know, the tactical timeline I laid out nets out to be about two years to decision timeline for the state. I think that's, you know, that probably has plus or minus a quarter or two on each side of that two-year estimate. Could go faster, it could go a little bit slower if data is messy, for example, because in some states, they assign the baby into a different Medicaid plan at birth. Don't ask me why that gets done, that's the case. It requires us to do some data chasing to combine the mom and baby outcomes.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

For that program, we expect, probably beginning of 2027, to bring the decision, and the results of the program, to us. Of course, we'll report on that. Does that help?

Dan Brennan
Dan Brennan
Senior Analyst at TD Cowen

Yep. Yeah, that helps a lot. Terrific. All right. Well, thanks a lot.

Operator

There are no further questions.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Thank you for the question.

Operator

Sorry. There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call over to Zhenya Lindgardt, President and CEO. Please continue.

Zhenya Lindgardt
Zhenya Lindgardt
President and CEO at Sera Prognostics

Thank you so much, operator. In summary, we're building the medical reimbursement and advocacy foundations necessary for commercialization and guideline inclusion efforts. The engagement we're seeing across stakeholders reinforces our confidence in the opportunity ahead. Thank you so much, everyone, for your time today. We look forward to continuing to share our progress steadily each quarter.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participation. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Austin Aerts
      Austin Aerts
      CFO
    • Jennifer Zibuda
      Jennifer Zibuda
      Head of Investor Relations
    • Zhenya Lindgardt
      Zhenya Lindgardt
      President and CEO
Analysts
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