ASML Q2 2026 Pre recorded Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: ASML reported a strong Q2 with €9.3 billion in net sales and a 54% gross margin, both above guidance, driven largely by a stronger-than-expected installed base business.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company raised full-year 2026 guidance to €43 billion–€45 billion in net sales with a 54%–56% gross margin, and Q3 guidance also implies continued momentum.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management said customer demand remains very strong across logic and DRAM, fueled by AI-related capacity additions, accelerated customer CapEx plans, and tighter long-term supply visibility.
  • Positive Sentiment: ASML expects substantial growth in key product areas in 2026, including about 45% growth in EUV, 75% growth in memory revenue, and around 25% growth in DUV metrology & inspection.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management highlighted strong multi-year demand visibility, noting it is already close to filling 2027 EUV orders and seeing significant 2028 demand, while Intel’s use of High-NA in production was presented as an important technology milestone.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
ASML Q2 2026 Pre recorded
00:00 / 00:00

Transcript Sections

Skip to Participants
Company Representative at ASML

Hello, welcome to ASML's Q2 2026 results video. Welcome, Christophe. Welcome, Roger. Roger, can I start with you and ask you to give us a summary of our Q2 results, please?

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

Sure. Total net sales for the quarter came in at EUR 9.3 billion, we had a gross margin of 54%, both of them, both the top line and also the gross margin, above guidance. Main reason why it was above guidance is the installed base business. The installed base business came in at EUR 2.8 billion. That is EUR 300 million more than we expected as a result of the fact that customers are really looking for productivity enhancements.

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

Therefore, the upgrade business was quite high. Net income came in at EUR 2.9 billion. In the EUR 2.9 billion is also an estimate of the cost associated with the tech and IT transformation, that's included in that number. All in all, I would say a very strong quarter, both from a market dynamic perspective and from an execution perspective.

Company Representative at ASML

Looking further ahead, can you also provide us with a guide for Q3 and the full year of 2026?

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

The way we look at Q3, we guide total net sales between EUR 11 billion and EUR 12 billion for Q3, with a gross margin between 55% and 57%. We are looking at an installed base business of approximately EUR 2.9 billion for Q3. If we look at the total year, we're looking at total net sales guided between EUR 43 billion and EUR 45 billion, a gross margin between 54% and 56% for the full year.

Company Representative at ASML

Maybe, Christophe, if I can turn to you and ask you to give us maybe a sense of the market dynamics that have led to the upgrade in the guidance that Roger just talked about.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

Well, I think it's really a combination of a continuous, very strong demand from our customer, but also that's very important, our ability to respond to that demand thanks to the strength of our supply chain, manufacturing, and the install team in the field. If we look at the market demand, the end market demand, this has motivated our customer to increase their CapEx but also accelerate all their plans, and this really create a need for more system, basically starting this year. We are doing the same on our side, extending output, extending basically our team so that we can support them moving forward.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

That dynamic we see both with Logic and DRAM. What we also see for both Logic and DRAM is that our customer are getting long-term agreement with their own customer, which really invite them to commit for the long term because they have what I will call a quite unprecedented visibility on what will happen to the market.

Company Representative at ASML

If we start maybe, and take a slightly deeper look then on Logic first maybe, and what you're seeing there specifically.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

Quite a bit happening with Logic. First, if we look at the existing advanced node, 5 nm, 4 nm, 3 nm, we see that our customer are trying to add a lot of capacity there now. This is because there is a huge demand on those technology coming from AI. At the same time, the 2 nm ramp is down as aggressively as possible. We see customer adding capacity, accelerating their plan, and they even start basically to look at the 1.4 nm ramp. All of that together means that our revenue for advanced foundry Logic this year should increase by about 25%.

Company Representative at ASML

If we also looked at memory in that regard, what are you seeing there?

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

I think if we look at the price of memory today-

Company Representative at ASML

Yeah.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

....either for DDR or for HBM, there is a clear need for more supply. This is translating into, again, acceleration of capacity plan from our customer.

Company Representative at ASML

Yeah.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

This is happening with all customer. On top of that, as we discussed previously, the latest node are calling for more litho, for higher litho intensity, both on EUV, but also advanced immersion.

Company Representative at ASML

Yeah.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

All of that together means that our revenue on memory this year will increase by 75%.

Company Representative at ASML

Very good. Having said that then, what does that translate to in terms of our own business, EUV, non-EUV? What are you seeing there, for example?

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

Let me start with EUV, quantifying a bit some of the statement I've made before. We will be able this year to ship about 65 Low-NA EUV machines. This is the results, basically, of a lot of work done on our output, and this means that our EUV business will grow by about 45%. When it comes to DUV immersion first, we had to re-accelerate our output, and we are now happy that we'll be able to ship about 130 system, which is about the level of last year-

Company Representative at ASML

Yep.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

...after a strong re-acceleration of all our plan there.

Company Representative at ASML

Yep.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

When we look at DUV dry, a lot of traction there, also capturing some customer with our dry product, the number of shipments is also going to increase quite a bit in 2026.

Company Representative at ASML

Touching maybe a little bit then on our Metrology & Inspection business.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

Yeah. There also a very strong growth this year. Two reason for that. The first one is our customer are using more and more process control. This is because, of course, of more advanced, more complicated nodes. This is, I would say, one of the trend. The second trend, to be honest, is a very strong adoption, increased adoption of our product, being either optical metrology or e-beam inspection, which basically altogether drive very strong growth on inspection and metrology at ASML.

Company Representative at ASML

Yeah.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

If you look at DUV metrology inspection together, we are looking at about 25% growth also in revenue in 2026.

Company Representative at ASML

Roger, maybe turning quickly, could you also give us an update on what we're seeing in terms of regionally, maybe with China, how we're seeing things play there?

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

Yes, we said China. We still look at China as approximately 20% of our total net sales, so that percentage hasn't changed. Obviously, it's of a higher base, right?

Company Representative at ASML

Yes.

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

The total net sales for the companies we see today is higher than we anticipated at the beginning of the year. In that sense, you could say that the Chinese market is moving-

Company Representative at ASML

Yeah.

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

...in sync with the overall behavior that we see globally. If you really want to pinpoint it, so where is that extra demand in China? It is primarily in the logic business, primarily catering to domestic-led demand.

Company Representative at ASML

The other piece maybe is on Installed Base Management. I think we've had some very good momentum over recent quarters. You've given a good guide, I think, for next Q. Can you talk a little bit about the dynamics we're seeing there?

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

Yeah, I think I already mentioned a little bit, right?

Company Representative at ASML

Yeah.

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

The install base business, two main buckets, obviously the upgrade business that we talked about. As I said, customers in the current environment, whatever they can do to increase productivity, they will take it, particularly if it's instant upgrade of productivity.

Company Representative at ASML

Yeah.

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

We're increasingly in a position to give that to customers, because a lot of the upgrade business is software-led.

Company Representative at ASML

Okay.

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

It doesn't take a lot of machine time. Customers have an instant improvement of productivity. We already have quite a few of those products, but we're really driving that with quite some force to make sure that we have as many upgrade products available to customers as possible. Obviously, particularly on the EUV side, with the install base increasing the way it does, that also obviously means that the total service business is going up. If you take those two buckets combined, we're looking at over 30% growth for the install base business this year.

Company Representative at ASML

Maybe Roger, following on from that, can you also give us some color on the gross margin, and what are some of the drivers there?

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

Gross margin influenced, of course, by what I just mentioned on the install base business, right? The increase in upgrade business obviously also leads to an increase in the gross margin. That's an important driver for the gross margin this year. The other one is, if you look at the system sales, it's a combination both of the volume. With higher volume, we get better fixed cost coverage, and that, of course, is helpful for the gross margin. Also there is a positive mix effect this year with strong performance both on the EUV side and also on the immersion side.

Company Representative at ASML

Christophe, maybe then looking a little bit longer term and beyond 2026, what are the conversations and the dynamics you're having in terms of discussions with customers, for example?

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

Well, I think, based on everything we have said so far, you can imagine that we're having very constructive discussion with our customer on the long term. Their own visibility to their business allow them to share with us also, longer than, I would say, usual visibility on their business. We're talking, of course, about next year, but also beyond that. This has also translated practically into very strong order booking through the first half of 2026.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

If we look into more detail, starting with 2027, there we are pretty much already close to receive all the orders we need for 2027, and this is with us adding about 30% capacity for EUV in 2027 versus 2026. When we look at 2028, we have received already a large number of orders from our customer for EUV, and this has also invited us very strongly to investigate another 30% increase in our EUV capacity for 2028. Of course, when EUV grows, DUV grows as well. Immersion is going to be important, and there also for 2027 and for 2028, we are going to look at a 30% increase of our capacity for both year.

Company Representative at ASML

Maybe if we can switch gears a little bit, and if you can provide us with a little bit of an update on the technology front and maybe High-NA, how are things going there?

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

Well, maybe on High-NA, I'd like to start with the press release we had this morning about Intel. As you may have read it, Intel is basically now using High-NA in production on their most advanced product. It means that some of the product you buy today from Intel have been created with an High-NA machine. This is, of course, a very important milestone. This is the proof of the maturity of the tool. We've talked a lot about that in the last quarter. We are seeing that happening with all customer, and therefore expect to enter that discussion with all our customer on how exactly and when exactly the tool will be inserted in high volume manufacturing.

Company Representative at ASML

Can I ask you to share a little bit on the timing of our next Capital Markets Day?

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

Well, I think we will all agree that a lot has happened in our market in the last few quarters. I think we believe it's time to revisit our assumption, revisit a bit the analysis we have in the market, and we'd like to welcome all our investor on June 10th next year, 2027, for next Capital Markets Day, which will be for us the opportunity to look again at the context of the market and define basically what it means a bit for the long term of ASML business.

Company Representative at ASML

With that, thank you, Roger. Thank you, Christophe.

Roger Dassen
Roger Dassen
EVP and CFO at ASML

You're welcome.

Christophe Fouquet
Christophe Fouquet
President and CEO at ASML

Thank you.

Executives
    • Company Representative
    • Roger Dassen
      Roger Dassen
      EVP and CFO
    • Christophe Fouquet
      Christophe Fouquet
      President and CEO