Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacifico Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 15, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: GAP reported a resilient quarter with EBITDA up 8.4% to MXN 6 billion and EBITDA margin expanding 230 bps to 69.3%, even as total passenger traffic fell 5.6% year over year.
  • Positive Sentiment: Non-aeronautical revenue surged 23.9%, driven by strong growth in directly operated businesses and the initial consolidation of Cross Border Xpress (CBX), showing the company is becoming less dependent on passenger volumes.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Management cut full-year traffic guidance to -3% to flat, citing softer domestic demand, higher jet fuel costs, security concerns in some leisure markets, and lingering Jamaica recovery from Hurricane Melissa, while expecting improvement in the second half.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company said Guadalajara handled World Cup-related traffic smoothly, with passenger traffic there up 6%, and expects the temporary June softness from the tournament to normalize as domestic travel returns in July.
  • Neutral Sentiment: GAP reaffirmed its investment and capital-return plans, including ongoing Master Development Plan capex, progress on the FIBRA GAP process, and a plan to make two dividend payments later this year, while noting the FIBRA is not expected to materially change the company’s effective tax rate.
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Earnings Conference Call
Grupo Aeroportuario Del Pacifico Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

There are 11 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good day, everyone. You're on hold for today's GAP conference call. At this time, we're admitting additional participants. Please stand by. We'll begin shortly. Good morning. Welcome to GAP's second quarter 2026 conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the presentation, we will open the floor for questions, and at that time, instructions will be given if you would like to ask a question. It is now my pleasure to turn the call over to GAP's investor relations team. Please go ahead.

Speaker 1

Thank you. Welcome to GAP's second quarter 2026 conference call. Prior to introducing GAP's management team, I'd like to take a few moments to mention the forward-looking statements as described in the financial report. Please be advised that any comments made today may not account for future economic circumstances, industry conditions, the company's future performance, or financial results. Any information discussed is based on several assumptions and factors that could change, causing actual results to materially differ from current expectations. For the complete note on forward-looking statements, please refer to the quarterly report issued previously. Thank you for your attention. It is my pleasure to introduce our speakers from GAP today, who will be discussing with you the operational and financial highlights for the second quarter of 2026. These are Mr. Raul Revuelta, Chief Executive Officer, and Mr. Saul Villarreal, Chief Financial Officer.

Speaker 1

Mr. Revuelta, please proceed with your opening remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Maria. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. The second quarter of 2026 shows the resilience of GAP's business model. Passengers traffic declined by 5.6% compared with the second quarter of 2025. Revenue, excluding construction services, increased by 4.9%, EBITDA grew by 8.4%, and EBITDA margin expanded by 230 basis points to 69.3%. The results reflect the combined strength of our diversified airport portfolio, the continued growth of business operated directly by GAP, the initial contribution from the Cross Border Xpress, the global implementation of approved tariffs, and the internationalization of technical assistance services. While we are not satisfied with the current traffic performance, this quarter demonstrates that GAP is increasingly capable of protecting earnings and generating growth through multiple complementary revenue streams. Let me begin with passenger traffic.

Speaker 2

During the second quarter, total passengers traffic across GAP's network of 14 airports declined by 5.6% versus the second quarter of 2025, reflecting a combination of factors affecting both our Mexican and Jamaican operations. In Jamaica, we continue to experience the impact of Hurricane Melissa. While the recovery of hotel capacity along the main tourist corridor gradually continues, it has not yet returned to the pre-storm levels. However, we think hotel reopening points to extended recovery throughout the second half of this year. If this continues, we expect passenger traffic will continue to turn in the coming months. The operating environment in Mexico remained challenging throughout the quarter. While airlines proactively managed capacity in response to the current economic environment, rising jet fuel costs continued to pressure airfare prices. In addition, international leisure demand for some of our beach destinations are affected by security concerns.

Speaker 2

Including the security incident in Puerto Vallarta during the previous quarter, as well as various travel advisory issues by the U.S. government as a result. International traffic dropped, the quarter decline highlighted by the 27% reduction in international passengers at Puerto Vallarta. We are actively partnering with airlines and regional tourist stakeholders to rebuild route connectivity and boost travel and confidence in this area. In the month of June, the city of Guadalajara hosted four of five FIFA World Cup matches. We are proud to highlight that this demonstrates the operational strength of the Guadalajara Airport. Throughout the tournament, the airport successfully handled additional charter flights, as well as the arrival of national teams, official delegations, and fans. Despite heightened security protocols, operation remained normal, preserving excellent standard service level for both daily passengers and airline partners. As a result, traffic at Guadalajara Airport rose by 6%.

Speaker 2

This was partially offset by a temporary softening in business and leisure travel at other GAP airports during the World Cup. We expect this demand to normalize in July following the completion of the tournament. We believe that a significant portion of the headwinds affecting traffic is temporary. Also, the pace of normalization will vary by market. Our revised guidance does not assume an immediate or complete recovery. Instead, it reflects a gradual improvement supported by 19 new routes launched during the quarter, the contribution of new frequencies that began operation in June, the gradual restoration of hotel capacity in Jamaica, and more favorable year-over-year comparison during the second half.

Speaker 2

Turning to financial results, aeronautical revenues decreased by 3.2%, primarily due to the lower passenger traffic both in Mexico and Jamaica, as well as a 10.9% appreciation of the Mexican peso, which negatively affect the translation of revenue generated in U.S. dollars, as well as international passenger charges. It is important to highlight that those effects were partially offset by the gradual implementation of maximum tariffs approved for the 2025-2029 regulatory periods in Mexico. Non-aeronautical revenues increased by 23.9%, supported by continued growth across the business lines operated directly by GAP, as well as the consolidation of the Cross Border Xpress beginning on the first of May of this year. Without considering the consolidation of the CBX, revenue from the business lines operated directly by GAP once again delivered strong growth, increasing by 17%, despite lower passenger traffic.

Speaker 2

The cargo and bonded warehouse operations grew by 22%, advertising by 58%, hotel operations by 27%, convenience store by 11%, and parking by 9%. Let's just take a pause here because this demonstrates that GAP's commercial strategy does not solely depend on passengers volume. The commercial strategy we have in place increasingly reflects our ability to improve monetization, expand directly operated platforms, and capture a greater share of passengers and logistic-related spending. Thus, these measures are becoming a more significant source of recurring earnings and central to our strategy of building a more diversified infrastructure platform. At the same time, businesses that are more directly exposed to international leisure traffic and foreign exchange, including duty-free and VIP lounge, remain under pressure. We expect these categories to improve as international traffic gradually recovers.

Speaker 2

In terms of CBX, this operation generated revenue of MXN 168 million during the months of May and June, when we experienced over 626 thousand passengers using the facility going in both directions. This generates an average revenue of $42.8 per passenger, which is aligned with the GAP expectations. Although CBX traffic figures remain below those of the prior year, this initial financial contribution demonstrates the strength and resilience of pricing and commercial model. We continue to see opportunities in dynamic pricing, ancillary services, passenger experience, and improved connectivity between Tijuana and Southern California. Moving on, total operating costs did remain relatively stable compared to the same period of the last year. This result includes the positive effect of the reversal of the technical assistance fee provision due to the internalization. It also includes two months of CBX operation expenses and the one-off merger-related expenses.

Speaker 2

Excluding these effects, operating expenses increased by 3% compared to the second quarter of 2025. Cost of service primarily increased due to the higher personnel expenses, maintenance costs, and security expenses across our airports network. As a result, EBITDA increased by 8.4%, reaching MXN 6 billion during the quarter, an EBITDA margin of 69.3%. In terms of our financial position, we continue to maintain a solid liquidity profile. The business combination contributed by MXN 5.4 billion in cash and cash equivalents and further strengthened the scale and diversification of our asset base. Moving on to the CapEx, we continue to execute our investment program under the 2025-2029 Master Development Plan in Mexico and our capital development programs in Jamaica. Our investment remains focused on expanding airport capacity, improving operational infrastructure, enhancing passenger experience throughout, all while supporting the long-term growth of our airport network.

Speaker 2

Let me now turn on the revised 2026 growth guidance. Considering the consolidation of CBX, internalization of technical assistance services, current passengers traffic trends, and the progress of the company investment projects, we have updated our annual expectations. Currently, we expect passengers traffic to land at a range of between -3% and flat growth. I just want to mention that this outlook reflects a gradual improvement during the second half, but does not assume that all airports return to the growth at the same time, or that Puerto Vallarta and Montego Bay achieve a complete recovery during 2026. Our aeronautical revenues are expected to increase between 1% and 4%, supported by the implementation of tariffs approved by the authority for our airports in Mexico. Non-aeronautical revenue are expected to grow between 21% and 24%, driven by the performance of GAP-operated business as well as the consolidation of CBX.

Speaker 2

EBITDA is expected to grow between 10%-12%. This would yield an EBITDA margin of approximately 67% ±1%. This reflects, among other factors, the internalization of technical assistance and technology transfer service. Finally, CapEx is expected to be around MXN 4 billion. This includes MXN 9 billion for committed investment at airports in Mexico under the Master Development Plan, MXN 2 billion for investment at airports in Jamaica, and MXN 1 billion for commercial investments. As follow-up, we continue to undergo the approval process with the relevant authorities to incorporate FIBRA GAP, with the objective of subscribing a minority equity interest in the 12 Mexican airport concession areas. We expect this to go out throughout during the third quarter of this year, and we will keep you informed of any update on this process. Before concluding, I would like to emphasize three points.

Speaker 2

First, despite the 5.6 overall decline in passenger traffic, the stronger underlying airport business protect the company earnings capacity. Note that the reported EBITDA increased by 8.4%, and the EBITDA margin expanded to 69.3%. Second, our diversification strategies are already producing measurable results. Excluding CBX, business operated directly by GAP grew by 17%, while CBX contributed MXN 216 million in EBITDA during the first two months of the consolidation. Third, our long-term strategy remains unchanged. We continue investing in airport capacity, commercial platform, logistics, and across border mobility while maintaining disciplined capital allocation. This quarter demonstrate that GAP is no longer dependent on a single growth driver. Traffic remains fundamental to our business, but approved tariffs, directly operating commercial business, logistics, CBX, and internalization of technical assistance service provide complementary source of earnings and revenues. Thank you again for your time. Operator, please open the line for questions.

Operator

If you'd like to ask a question over the phone, please press *1 on your keypad, and you'll be placed into the queue in order received. You may remove yourself from the queue at any time by pressing #1. As a reminder, participants joining via webcast may submit questions at any time using the Q&A function. For a question on the phone, press *1, and we'll pause briefly. Our first question comes from Rodolfo Ramos of Bradesco BBI.

Speaker 3

Good morning. Thank you, Raul, Saul, and Jesús for the call. I've got two questions, if I may. The first one is about your traffic guidance. We were never too optimistic on the World Cup effect, but we were surprised by how weak performance was during the month of June, not just for you, but for the system. Looking at your guidance, it implies better performance in this second half, as you mentioned some of these factors. Can you elaborate, how do you see them playing out in that recovery, and perhaps some thoughts on your expectations for 2027? Second, if I may, can you update us on the FIBRA listing, and if you can, just to shed a little bit of visibility and clarity on the rationale. Can you put a ballpark figure?

Speaker 3

I know it might be difficult, but how should we look at your effective tax rate post this FIBRA transaction? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Rodolfo. This is Raul. In terms of our traffic guidance, what we saw during the World Cup or during the month of June, we saw a really important change on the airfares, that in some way decelerated the demand for many domestic travelers, leisure and businessmen, that in a normal month will come to some of the different airports. So what we saw is, I would say, a temporary effect of some passengers that didn't fly during the World Cup because of the airfares, for sure. And we are seeing some kind, I would say, a substitution of seats. Let me put it this way. The passengers, the business traffic that usually comes to Guadalajara or even Tijuana was in some way changed. The seat was changed or taken by fans or by people coming for the matches.

Speaker 2

What we are seeing for the coming months is. We are seeing a July that will bring some of this lack of domestic passengers that will come or will make leisure domestic passengers, mainly in Mexico. And in some way that they avoided to fly during June for the World Cup, but we are seeing that will fly on July. For the rest of the months, what we are seeing is some additional seats coming for some of our mainly leisure destinations. We are seeing also different openings happening on domestic market, mainly by Volaris. So in general terms, we are seeing that the end of the year is going to be, I would say, a flat result for the 12 months of this 2026. Hi, well, this is all related to FIBRA.

Speaker 2

As you know, this is a different vehicle from that. This is our first time on this. We are in the process of the incorporation of the trust. We are not really advanced. We are in the final process for meetings with the different investors. As you may know, as a new instrument for financing the MDP, there are several concerns on this. And obviously, we are trying to move forward, and we believe that in the following weeks, we'll be ready to launch the FIBRA. On the other hand, related to the expected tax rate, this vehicle will be transparent for tax purposes, but it will be only at the Mexican airports. At the end, we will be transferring dividends directly to GAP without paying taxes at the airports level. But at the GAP's level, we will be paying taxes as a regular company.

Speaker 2

There won't be any expected benefit on tax. What we will expect is the same tax rate, basically. We will have a period of transition, probably during 2026, 2027, in which we could obtain a little decrease in terms of tax, because the tax shield of the interest, it will be only a temporary effect that won't be permanent. In general terms, I would say that won't be any change in the effective tax rate for GAP.

Speaker 3

Thank you.

Operator

Next we have Julia Orsi of J.P. Morgan.

Speaker 4

Yes. Hello, everyone. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. We have two topics on our side. The first one, can you comment a bit on the maximum monetary compliance level that you reached on second quarter, and what do you expect to reach by year-end? The second one is a follow-up on traffic trends. Can you comment on 2027 trends? I know that it's still early, but would be good to have your color on this. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you. This is Raul. I mean, on the first six months of the year, we have 90% of fulfillment of the maximum tariff. We are expecting that for the end of the year will be something around 95%. We just changed on the 1st of July, again, tariff in Cabos and Puerto Vallarta. Mainly the passenger seat of domestic passengers will increase an additional 7% from beginning July 1st. What we are seeing in general terms is that we will be really close to this number of 95% to the end of the year. For sure, taking account what could happen with the fixed rate, with the dollars and pesos, with exchange rate. In general terms, it's our view on that. For 2027, I would say that it's pretty early to have some kind of view on the number.

Speaker 2

I would say that we have two big effects to have in mind. The first one is related with the price on oil and the war in Iran, how would this continue impacting in some way the cost of the airlines, and in that way, the possible and available offer in the leisure destinations. The second one is related with the domestic market. We need to have some kind of additional visibility of what will happen with the merger transaction of Viva and Volaris. That could affect, in some way, the growth for the coming year. I would say that in general terms, for sure, we are expecting some growth on the coming years.

Speaker 2

We will not have the effect of Hurricane Melissa in the coming years, or at least what we are seeing on the trend of the recovery on hotels capacity in Jamaica is that for end of this year, everything going to be normalized. In general terms, we think that the coming year will be positive, but today it's difficult to see which is the range of growth that we will see.

Speaker 4

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Next, we have Pablo Ricalde of Itaú Unibanco.

Speaker 5

Hi. Good morning, Raul. Good morning, team. I have two questions. The first one is an update on Jamaica. How are you seeing traffic trends all in Jamaica for second half of the year? I know you will face easier comps November and December, but maybe you can provide some color on how you're seeing hotels and the airports and logistics in the island. The second one is on your guidance. Which FX assumption you are using for the construction of the new guidance? That's it on my side.

Speaker 2

Hi, Pablo. This is Raul. In case of Jamaica, what we are seeing is that the number of seats for the case of, for instance, of MJ, just on November of last year, when the hurricane hit, we were dealing with, let's say, a decrease of seats of almost 80%. By month of the 26th, we see a really robust recovery. For July, we are still having a minus 20% in terms of seats versus July 2025. What is interesting is when we see the slots and all the capacity that is today planned for the winter, we are seeing, at least in terms of seats, a full recovery for November and December, and all the winter season for Jamaica. For sure, it will be interesting to see how the demand reacts.

Speaker 2

At least in terms of the offer, we are seeing almost a full recovery for the end of the year in terms of seat capacity.

Speaker 6

Hi, Pablo. This is Saul. Related to guidance. Well, first of all, beginning with the passenger traffic, as Raul Revuelta mentioned, we are expecting the second half much better than the first half. In fact, we have a huge challenge moving from a -5.6% to our guidance that will be -3% to flat growth. It is very relevant to see that at the end, we are expecting a better half. In terms of the aeronautical revenues, you know that we have been gradually updated our aeronautical tariffs in Mexico. We continue with that in January, and we made another adjustment, a little adjustment, in mid-July. In the second half, we will have that little effect that will be only for Puerto Vallarta and Cabos. Secondly, non-aeronautical revenues. You know the integration of CBX is very relevant for this business line.

Speaker 6

The consolidation for me will support the comps for the second half of the year. At the end, those are the major assumptions that are considered, or were considered, to build the guidance. We are providing, now we have more visibility about the CAPEX, and obviously, the number that we are providing, and that we are expecting. That's basically the assumption for the guidance.

Speaker 5

Maybe, Saul Villarreal, a follow-up on that. Which FX assumption for the Mexican peso is embedded on this 10%-12% EBITDA growth guided for 2026?

Speaker 6

We are not seeing any change on that. We have seen there is still a change rate during the last months. We are expecting second half on average MXN 17.5 per USD. It's nothing relevant on that.

Speaker 2

In comparison base, it is important.

Speaker 6

Yeah, we'll be basically the same in the changing, just to consider in the guidance, right?

Speaker 5

Okay. Perfect. Thanks, Saul.

Operator

Just a reminder, participants joining via webcast may submit questions by using the Q&A function on your screen. We'll proceed with our next phone question from Enrique Cantu de GBM.

Speaker 7

Hello, everyone. Thank you for your time. I just have one question. Could you provide more detail on the transaction-related expenses of the CBX acquisition that impacted profitability this quarter? Should we expect these costs to be fully behind us starting in the third quarter, or are there any additional integration-related expenses we should keep in mind over the coming quarters?

Speaker 2

Hi, Enrique. This is Raul. In terms of the CBX acquisitions, the expenses related with the merger, it's already reflect on the results. Talking about what will come on coming months for the CBX, for sure, we are working on integration. That means, for sure, bringing some savings. When we are looking, at the end of the day, CBX used to be a business. It runs like a standalone. It's some different opportunities for us bringing some efficiencies due to the merger. What we are expecting is that on the last quarter of this year, we're going to see an increase on the margin of CBX related with savings, and related with this new kind of operation directly from our headquarters in Guadalajara. That is in general terms.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

From Scotiabank, we have Gabriel Alfaro.

Speaker 8

Hi, good morning, thanks for the call. Quick question. Traffic figures have been a bit soft, they're expected to continue a bit softer during the end of this year. Could this be somehow compensated with some higher tariffs beyond what is expected on the MDP? Or perhaps a faster pace on reaching the 100% maximum tariff? Or should we wait until the next MDP for seeing a compensation for this? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Hi, Gabriel. In terms of our concession titles, all the risk of traffic is for the concessionaire, is for GAP. Directly will not be some kind of compensation if for the five years we've not get the original forecasting of passengers. What is important to take into account for that is the 2029 or 2030, at the moment of the new Master Development Plan, we have a lower base of passengers, for sure. The reaction in the tariff is first is a lower need of CAPEX because the capacity we have already in place for our airports. The result could be a more, I would say, a neutral or even an increase on tariff related with the number of passengers. Again, we are going a lot of time on the future.

Speaker 2

Just going into the next year and talking about the maximum tariff, the idea will be to have, for sure, an increase in our passenger fees in January of the coming year. We are beginning the process with the Secretariat of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation. For sure, what we are expecting for the coming year is be close to 100% of fulfillment. It will be some kind of offset on the result on coming year. We are expecting some kind of increase on passengers. We don't have all the detail to understand how big could be that on 2027. For sure, we will have a positive effect on the increase on tariff on coming year.

Speaker 8

Okay, thank you. If I may, what are your expectations for the rest of the year in terms of dividends and distributions?

Speaker 6

Hi, Gabriel. This is Saul. Well, we are continuing distributing at the same level with the other years. As you know, GAP is one of the higher payer deals. We had already the shareholders meeting that approved the distribution of MXN 0.2080 per ordinary share. We are now trying to conclude the consolidation of the new releases to make the next dividend payment. We do expect to make two distributions or two payments in two different dates. The first one, we believe that probably in this quarter, and the last one in the last quarter of the year.

Speaker 8

Cool. Thank you. Thank you very much.

Operator

That was our final question from the phone. We will now move to questions submitted through the webcast. I'll turn the call over to Alejandra Soto, Investor Relations Officer, to read the questions.

Speaker 9

Thank you. We only have one follow-up question on passenger growth, from Francisco Suarez from Scotiabank, and he's asking: Thanks for the color on how a relief from higher airfares after the World Cup ends could improve traffic and your outlook on seats capacity. Very appreciated. There are another additional factors playing the weak demand within the domestic passengers, namely affordability issues from customers or all the macro data that points to weak consumption in Mexico.

Speaker 2

Sure. Hi, Paco. This is Saul. We are in the middle of different effects happening right now. We have the cost of the oil impacting the efforts and increasing the efforts for directly impact the demand on passengers. Some decrease on offer related also with the cost of the fuel. We have the impact on the Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica, and we have this impact of the security concerns happening in Puerto Vallarta. That, for us, is one of the big concerns right now in our passenger threat. We also know that the consumption in Mexico is decreasing and the macroeconomics is negative or flatter in terms of the growth of the GDP. What is interesting to understand is that the GDP is growing on different paces in different parts of Mexico.

Speaker 2

We think that Jalisco, Guadalajara mainly, will continue with a increase of spend on the consumption and the economy. We are seeing this kind of similar factors on Baja California Sur, for instance. On the other hand, we are seeing some negative impacts on the macroeconomics of Baja California and all the manufacturing in Tijuana that is having some kind of future possible negative effects on our traffic. I would say, in general terms, yes, I think that we are today in a flatter economy that for sure will have some kind of impact on our passengers growth on the coming months. It will be interesting to have a more deep understanding on the growth of the GDP and the local GDP on the different states of Mexico to understand how could be the growth of passengers on the coming months or even years.

Speaker 9

Thank you, Raul. This is the last one from the webcast, I will turn off the call to the normal call.

Operator

Raul, we have one more question on the phone line from Anton Mortencatter of HBM.

Speaker 10

Hi, guys. Thank you for the call. Just a quick one. Considering all of these external effects, like the pressures on oil prices, would you ever consider granting some concessions to airlines in order to relieve the possible pressure on the traffic demand, meaning maybe lowering tariffs or granting some discounts to boost overall traffic, kind of like to share the effect of all of those external pressures? Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Anton. For the moment, we are not seeing that kind of concessions or discounts to the airlines for all this environment on the economics. For sure, as we already made in some specific routes that are suffering for the low factors, for instance, we will make some specific supports. I would say this is not for this year. All the history in GAP, we have specific supports when we have some kind of risk of losing connectivity in our airport. We will review case by case, but for the moment, we are not seeing any of these discounts in general terms for all of our airlines.

Speaker 10

Super. Thank you.

Operator

We have no further questions on the phone lines. Raul, back over to you for any additional or closing comments.

Speaker 2

Thank you once again for joining us today. Please contact our investor relations team with any additional questions you may have. Have a great day, and thank you for your attention.

Operator

That concludes today's GAP's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

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