Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 22, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Volaris said it responded to the difficult fuel environment with disciplined capacity cuts, route redeployment, and fare actions, allowing it to keep every route cash positive and end Q2 with $824 million in cash, up $58 million sequentially.
  • Positive Sentiment: Revenue performance was strong, with Q2 TRASM up 22% year over year to a record $0.0950 and operating revenue rising 24% to $859 million, driven especially by the U.S.-Mexico cross-border market.
  • Neutral Sentiment: The company’s international strategy is paying off: international capacity reached 43% of ASMs, and the U.S.-Mexico market generated more than 30% revenue growth with strong fare absorption and load factors near historical averages.
  • Positive Sentiment: Management highlighted major progress on fleet recovery, with AOG aircraft falling from 41 to 24 during the quarter and normalization expected by the end of 2027, which should improve utilization and support about $50 million in annual lease savings.
  • Positive Sentiment: Volaris reinstated its full-year EBITDAR margin guidance at approximately 23% and guided to about 5% full-year ASM growth, while also pointing to healthy summer bookings and a Q3 EBITDAR margin outlook of around 22%.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

There are 12 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining Volaris' second quarter 2026 financial results conference call. All lines are currently in listen-only mode. After the company's remarks, we will open the call for questions. Please note that today's event is being recorded and webcast live on the Volaris website. I would like to turn the call over to Liliana Juárez, investor relations manager. Please go ahead, Liliana.

Speaker 1

Welcome to our second quarter 2026 earnings call. Joining us today are our President and CEO, Enrique Beltranena, our Executive Vice President, Holger Blankenstein, and our CFO, Jaime Pous. They will be discussing the company's results, followed by a Q&A session. This call is for investors and analysts only. Please note that this call may include forward-looking statements under applicable securities laws. These are subject to several factors that could cause the company's results to differ materially, as described in our filings with the U.S. SEC and Mexico CNBV. These statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Volaris undertakes no obligation to update or modify them. All figures are in US dollars compared to the second quarter of 2025, unless otherwise noted. With that, I will turn the call over to Enrique.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our second quarter 2026 earnings call. In the second quarter, we responded immediately and decisively, taking the actions needed to preserve liquidity, protect our value proposition, and maximize performance across our network, despite facing the most challenging fuel environment in our history. Through disciplined capacity management, commercial execution, and operational efficiency, we deployed aircraft where economic returns were strongest. We proactively adjusted our network, aligned capacity with demand and economic contribution, and calibrated fares to market conditions. We ensured that every route was operating cash positive during the quarter, a powerful proof point of our disciplined network strategy and our ability to protect liquidity and balance sheet flexibility despite the elevated fuel costs. As a result of our efforts, we ended the second quarter with $824 million in cash, an increase of $58 million from the end of the first quarter.

Speaker 2

Multiple actions within the network and revenue generated strong operating cash, with our network strategy playing a central role to this performance. In the second quarter, TRASM was 22% above last year. Yes, 22%. Well above the growth reported by publicly traded legacy carriers in the U.S. and Latin America. That is a significant accomplishment for an ultra-low-cost carrier operating in an emerging market, where customers are highly price sensitive, and pricing actions must be carefully balanced with preserving demand. It reflects the strength of our commercial execution and the resilience and ever-growing attractiveness of the Volaris value proposition. A key part of that strategy has been the deliberate expansion of our international network. International capacity reached 43% of total ASMs during the quarter, up from roughly 30% three years ago. This deliberate expansion has strengthened our network diversification and established an unmatched U.S. footprint among Mexican carriers.

Speaker 2

That strategic vision is bearing fruit. In the U.S.-Mexico transported market, we dynamically redeployed capacity to our markets with robust demand and strong fare absorption. The market absorbed both the additional capacity and higher base fares, driving revenue growth of more than 30% year-over-year and bringing load factor back to our historical average levels. In the emerging Mexican domestic market, we kept capacity broadly flat, aligning it with prevailing demand, protecting the accessibility of our product, and the strength of our core network, while selectively adjusting fares to market conditions. This approach supported domestic load factor of 89%, while preserving the competitiveness of air travel relative to ground transportation alternatives that benefit from subsidized gasoline and diesel prices. Maintaining this balance is particularly important in Mexico, where air travel penetration remains low and much of the population still does not fly.

Speaker 2

We remain committed to stimulating demand across this large, underserved market, while preserving the low-fare value proposition that supports its long-term growth potential. Beyond our network actions, we continue to optimize fuel consumption through tactical efficiency initiatives, disciplined fleet assignment, and greater utilization of our available new aircraft, consistent with the recovery of our GTF engines. As a result, we achieved the highest fuel efficiency in Volaris history. Fuel efficiency measured as ASMs per gallon improved 3.3% year-over-year from 105.8 in the second quarter of 2025 to 109.2 in the second quarter of 2026. This improvement allowed us to avoid approximately 2 million gallons of fuel consumption and generated an estimated $7 million in savings during the quarter. Moving to our key financial metrics, as noted earlier, TRASM came in at $0.0950, consistent with our guidance, while CASM ex-fuel of $0.0675 was slightly better than expected.

Speaker 2

We delivered an EBITDAR margin of 16.3%, above our guidance of approximately 13%. This result reflected strong execution across our network, revenue, cost levers, together with jet fuel prices that averaged approximately 8% below the assumption embedded in our guidance. The third quarter encompasses our peak summer season and is typically one of the most profitable periods of the year. Accordingly, we strategically planned ASM growth of approximately 10% year-over-year, concentrated in July and August. While this represents a meaningful step-up from our year-to-date growth rate, it is designed to capture strong summer demand at attractive fares and maximize cash and economic contribution. As we move into September and the lower-demand season, we will meaningfully trim ASM growth.

Speaker 2

Consistent with this pace, we expect full-year ASM growth of approximately 5%, with continued emphasis on the U.S. transborder market, adjusting fleet utilization to maintain the right balance among unit revenues, margins, and cash generation. Supporting this capacity plan, our fleet recovery remains on track. Aircraft on ground, or AOGs, declined from 41 at the beginning of the year to 24 at the end of the second quarter, in line with our expectations. We expect AOGs to remain broadly around this level in the near term as individual aircraft rotate in and out of service through scheduled engine inductions, returns to service, and major maintenance events. Importantly, the overall recovery trajectory remains consistent with our plan. This increases our flexibility to deploy aircraft during periods of stronger demand and supports greater fleet efficiency, stronger earnings potential, and improved cash generation without requiring incremental aircraft investment.

Speaker 2

Looking further ahead, fleet recovery remains one of the most important structural value creation levers. Aircraft availability is expected to progressively improve, with normalization anticipated by the end of the year of 2027. At the same time, schedule lease returns are expected to reduce our contractual fleet to approximately 137 aircraft. This combination will expand our revenue-generating capacity on a smaller contractual fleet base. Once fully realized, it is expected to generate approximately $50 million in annual lease savings and reduce lease liabilities by around $360 million, supporting higher utilization and stronger margins while creating a meaningful structural tailwind to earnings and free cash flow generation. This recovery does not change our approach to growth. Capacity will continue to be deployed with discipline, aligned with demand, and focused on sustained profitability and cash generation.

Speaker 2

As we move through the second half of 2026, geopolitical developments continue to influence fuel prices. Against this backdrop, we have consistently demonstrated our ability to respond quickly, adapt our network, and protect performance. The actions taken during the first half are already producing tangible results. Based on the progress achieved to date and our conviction in our strategy and execution, we are reinstating our full-year EBITDAR margin guidance. We now expect a full-year EBITDAR margin of approximately 23%, which Jaime will discuss in greater detail. With that, I will turn the call over to Holger to discuss our commercial and operational performance and our outlook for the rest of the year.

Speaker 3

Thank you, Enrique. As previewed on our first quarter call, we took targeted network actions to mitigate higher jet fuel prices. We optimized selected frequencies, suspended low-margin off-peak and weekend flights while preserving route service, and deployed capacity only where it supported positive margin contribution, cash generation, and route-level profitability. For the second quarter, total ASMs grew 2%, reflecting 8% growth internationally and a 2% reduction in the domestic market. We moderated capacity and fleet utilization deliberately, concentrating flying where economic returns were strongest. We implemented phased fare actions during the quarter to partially offset higher fuel costs while preserving load factors with targeted increases on high-performing routes. The impact was initially limited in April due to strong existing bookings for Semana Santa and spring break. As those bookings rolled off, pricing absorption strengthened in May and June.

Speaker 3

Overall, our average base fare increased by 25% year-over-year in the second quarter, driven primarily by the U.S.-Mexico cross-border market. These results underscore the strength and adaptability of our commercial approach. At the network level, load factor was 84.8%, with international performance standing out. In the U.S.-Mexico transborder market, growth came with strong pricing power. ASMs increased by 12%, average base fares rose by 25%, and traffic grew by 21%, well above the industry average. This drove revenue growth of more than 30%, while international load factors reached 79.6%. This is the quality of growth we are targeting, deploying additional capacity at higher fares and translating it into stronger unit revenue and cash generation. This strong fare absorption enabled us to recapture approximately 86% of year-over-year increases in fuel costs in the international market during the second quarter, approaching the levels achieved by U.S. legacy carriers.

Speaker 3

The domestic market follows a different dynamic. As a ULCC serving a more price-sensitive customer base in Mexico's emerging aviation market, we must calibrate fare actions carefully to preserve accessibility and demand. As our pricing actions become fully reflected in the revenue base, we expect to fully recapture the year-over-year increase in fuel costs in the international market by the fourth quarter, assuming current market conditions. In the domestic market, recapture should continue to improve progressively, consistent with our low-fare value proposition. Against this backdrop, domestic load factor remains strong at 88.6%, despite our selective fare actions. In June, we also adjusted pricing tactically to capture additional close-in demand during the FIFA World Cup period. Looking ahead, we will continue to preserve the accessibility of our product and the strength of our core network while selectively adjusting base fares where demand supports them.

Speaker 3

Overall, we delivered record second quarter TRASM of $0.095, in line with our guidance. This represented a 22% increase year-over-year and a sequential 10% increase from the first quarter. This performance was supported by continued strength in the cross-border market and resilient domestic demand, reflecting disciplined commercial execution with strong ancillary performance and targeted capacity deployment across the network. As we move into the second half, we will continue to manage fares and capacity with discipline, optimizing for TRASM, load factor, and economic contribution. We have a clear playbook to respond to changes in fuel prices. We will calibrate these levers by market to protect margins and cash generation while preserving demand. We continue to see resilient demand across the network, even against a softer domestic consumer backdrop. Our segmentation and brand initiatives are enabling us to maintain pricing discipline and capture demand more effectively as competitive dynamics evolve.

Speaker 3

On the ancillary front, ancillary revenues per passengers increased to $59, up 9% year-over-year, reflecting sustained adoption. Ancillary sales represented 56% of total quarterly revenues, underscoring the structural strength of our platform and its contribution to revenue resilience. Ancillary growth has been driven by ongoing customer segmentation initiatives. Our loyalty program, Altitude, now has more than 2.1 million active members, and we have officially integrated it with our co-branded INVEX credit card, which has more than 1 million credit card holders who can now earn and redeem Altitude points. We are also pleased to announce that we will roll out Starlink high-speed internet across our fleet, with onboard availability starting next year. This represents an upgrade to the customer experience that remains aligned with our ultra-low-cost model, and we believe it will support ancillary monetization over time. Our commercial efforts have also been reinforced by network initiatives.

Speaker 3

The 33 domestic and international routes that began operating in June have performed especially well and are cash positive, even against the fuel and economic backdrop. Within this broader strategy, our segmentation approach in Guadalajara remains a standout, and we continue to successfully cater to higher-yielding leisure, small and medium-sized business, and multi-use passenger segments. The performance of these new routes reflects a more targeted approach to inaugurating capacity compared with our typical demand stimulation strategy. On these higher-yielding, diversified sectors, we can ramp profitability and cash generation more quickly while remaining committed to our core base of the pyramid passengers. Turning now to our third quarter outlook. Regarding capacity, as Enrique explained, we are planning ASM growth of approximately 10% for the third quarter.

Speaker 3

This growth is intentionally front-loaded into July and August, with capacity deployed into the markets and travel windows where fare dynamics and economic contribution are strongest. As the lower demand season begins in September, we will meaningfully reduce the pace of ASM growth to protect TRASM, margins, and cash generation. Looking ahead to the peak summer period, booking trends remain healthy across the network, with particular strength in the U.S. cross-border market. Current booking curves support continued pricing strength and healthy demand in July and August, reinforcing our confidence in the capacity deployment planned for the quarter. The actions implemented in the first half provide a foundation for the second half of this year. We will continue to use this playbook as we move into the third quarter.

Speaker 3

Supported by higher yields, continued gross broader strength, and the momentum from our segmentation initiatives, we expect third quarter TRASM of approximately $0.099, up 4% sequentially and 14% increase year-over-year. Our disciplined framework allows us to keep calibrating deployment as demand, network trends, and geopolitical conditions evolve. For the full year of 2026, we now expect ASM growth of approximately 5%, reflecting the capacity adjustments made to date. We will continue to retain flexibility to calibrate deployment as fuel prices, demand trends, and aircraft availability evolve. I will turn the call over to Jaime to cover our second quarter financial results and latest guidance.

Speaker 4

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. As Enrique and Holger outlined, the actions implemented during the quarter are delivering tangible results. We strengthened our cash position and made continued progress in aircraft availability despite significant field pressure. This execution reinforces the resilience of our business, supports Volaris long-term earnings power, and positions us for sequential improvement in the second half. Turning to our results, total operating revenues reached $859 million, increasing 24% year-over-year on a 2% capacity growth. This performance was driven by healthy demand across our markets, disciplined capacity deployment, and a 16% increase in total revenue per passenger. The Mexican peso appreciated 11% on average against the U.S. dollar compared with the same period of last year, supporting a more favorable translation of domestic revenues. This benefit was partially offset on the cost side by a higher dollar translation of our peso-denominated expenses.

Speaker 4

Moving to costs, CASM was $0.1058, increasing 31% year-over-year. This was primarily driven by a 70% year-over-year increase in economic fuel cost per gallon. CASM ex-fuel of $0.0675 came in below guidance. As anticipated, the 19% year-over-year increase primarily reflected temporary and non-recurring items, which represented $0.0061 of unit cost in the quarter. This included maintenance and re-delivery expenses, merger-related costs, and the impact of capacity reductions implemented during the period. The fleet-related expenses were primarily associated with four aircraft redeliveries and a significant increase in maintenance events as we accelerated Pratt & Whitney engine inductions to support our AOG reduction plan. These are deliberate investments to remove operational constraints and restore the earnings capacity of aircraft already within our fleet. Based on our current outlook, the second quarter marked the peak CASM ex-fuel level for this year.

Speaker 4

While redeliveries and major maintenance events will continue during the second half, bringing grounded aircraft back into operation should support a lower unit cost trajectory and a stronger operating leverage over time. Second quarter, EBITA reached $141 million, translating into a 16.3% margin above our 13% quarterly guidance. This variance was primarily driven by lower-than-forecasted U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel prices, which averaged $3.70 per gallon versus the $4 per gallon assumed in our guidance. EBIT was negative $99 million with a negative 11.5% margin, while net loss for the quarter was $127 million, reflecting a $137 million impact from the year-over-year increase in fuel expense. As grounded new aircraft return to service, improved aircraft availability should support stronger margins and sequential profitability improvement across the income statement.

Speaker 4

Moving briefly to our results in the first half of 2026, total operating revenues reached $1.6 billion, increasing 19% compared with the first half of 2025 on a 2.1% capacity growth. EBITA totaled $318 million, representing a 19.5% margin. Fuel remained the dominant headwind, with economic fuel cost per gallon increasing 42% year-over-year. Net loss for the period was $199 million, reflecting a $175 million impact from the year-over-year increase in the fuel bill. Turning to cash flow and balance sheet data, cash flow from operating activities reached $272 million during the quarter. The cash outflows used in investing and financing activities were $63 million and $156 million, respectively. CapEx, excluding fleet predelivery payments, was $148 million, primarily reflecting planned heavy maintenance events to prepare our grounded fleet for the return of Pratt & Whitney engines, together with the strategic engine purchases.

Speaker 4

These investments enhance fleet flexibility, lower future redelivery costs, and reduce potential cash outflows during a period of elevated maintenance activity. Volaris closed the quarter with a liquidity position of $824 million, increasing $58 million sequentially despite elevated fuel cost pressure and representing 25% of last 12 months' total operating revenues. Net debt-to-EBITA ratio stood at 3.3 times, compared with 3.2 times at the end of the first quarter. Our ability to strengthen our cash position while maintaining broadly stable leverage in this environment demonstrates the effectiveness of the commercial, operational, and financial actions implemented. During the quarter, we executed an engine financing facility that generated $78 million in the net proceeds and further diversified our funding sources. Additionally, the rescheduling of Airbus deliveries originally planned for 2027 and certain deliveries in 2028 have reduced our pre-delivery payment requirements and related financing needs for 2026 and 2027.

Speaker 4

Together with the full amortization of our 2021 Mexican bond, these actions support a more balanced debt profile and preserve meaningful financial flexibility. Now, turning to our fleet plan and engine availability. As of June 30th, our fleet consisted of 155 aircraft, with an average age of 6.8 years. Fuel-efficient NEO aircraft represented 68% of the fleet. We are also deliberately prioritizing the deployment of our most fuel-efficient aircraft in the current environment. As a result, NEOs represented an average of 66.5% of our productive fleet during the quarter, up from an average of 56.6% in 2025. This focus on fleet efficiency is being reinforced by continued progress in engine availability. As Enrique mentioned, AOGs declined from 41 at the beginning of the year to 24 at the end of June, while average AOGs decreased from 36 in the first quarter to 28 aircraft in the second quarter.

Speaker 4

This progress was consistent with our plan and reinforces our confidence in the execution of our engine recovery strategy. Throughout the second half, we expect Aircraft on Ground to remain in the low to mid-20s, with individual aircraft rotating in and out of AOG status as engine center and return for maintenance shops. At the same time, we are actively rightsizing our contractual fleet. By rescheduling our 2027 and certain 2028 Airbus deliveries together with the scheduled lease returns, we are aligning fleet commitments with demand and the pace of our AOG recovery. This give us greater flexibility to return productive capacity to service while maintaining discipline control over growth and capital deployment. The objective is to maximize economic output of the fleet while reducing capital intensity and strengthening cash generation.

Speaker 4

To put this in context, by year-end 2027, scheduled lease returns are expected to reduce our contractual fleet to approximately 137 aircraft and lower lease liabilities from about $3.2 billion today to approximately $2.8 billion. This will allow us to unlock more revenue-generating capacity from a smaller contractual fleet base, further strengthening our balance sheet and supporting free cash flow generation. Looking to the second half of the year, our priority is to convert this progress into stronger earnings. We will continue actively managing fuel exposure, deploying capacity according to route level economics, and maintaining a strong balance sheet. A key component of this strategy is aircraft deployment. High asset productivity is fundamental pillar of the ultra-low-cost carrier model and a key driver of our low unit cost structure. However, productivity must be balanced with demand, pricing, and economic contribution.

Speaker 4

In the second quarter, we deliberately moderated capacity in response to the elevated fuel environment. This brought to utilization, measuring ASMs per productive aircraft per day, to approximately 10% below both last year's level and our budget. It was the right call. This was a deliberate economic decision that allow us to concentrate capacity, where flying generating positive margin and cash contribution. Consistent with this approach, utilization is expected to increase in the months of July and August as we concentrate flying during the peak summer period, before declining in September as we enter the lower-demand season. Greater aircraft availability give us the flexibility to calibrate deployment by market and season, maximizing the economic output of the fleet rather than pursuing capacity growth as an objective in itself.

Speaker 4

Supported by this disciplined deployment strategy and healthy peak summer demand, for the third quarter of 2026, we expect ASM growth of approximately 10% year-over-year, RASM of around $0.0990, CASM ex fuel of approximately $0.0635, and an EBITDAR margin of around 22%. Our third quarter outlook assumes an average foreign exchange rate of around MXN 17.6 per US dollar and an average U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel price of approximately $3.50 per gallon. For full year 2026, this translates into ASM growth of approximately 5% year-over-year, an EBITDAR margin of around 23%, and CapEx of around $350 million. Our full year outlook assumes an average foreign exchange rate of around MXN 17.6 per US dollar and an average U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel price of approximately $3.20 per gallon.

Speaker 4

Taking together these factors position us for clear sequential earnings improvement through the second half, while preserving the flexibility to adapt as market conditions evolve. I will turn the call back to Enrique for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Jaime. Our team has worked together for decades and has successfully navigated multiple industry cycles and unexpected disruptions. At Volaris, we have built a resilient culture and a proven ability to act decisively. That strength supported our solid operating performance in the second quarter and positions us to continue managing through the elevated fuel environment. Before we start Q&A, I'd like to highlight the latest developments in our proposed transaction with Viva. The regulatory process continues to move forward as expected. We have reached significant milestones. In late April, we received final regulatory approval from the government of Colombia. We are closely working with the United States Department of Justice to comply with their request for information. In Mexico, we have fully complied with, and closed at least two-thirds of the requests of information from the National Antitrust Commission.

Speaker 2

We continue to hope to receive the remaining regulatory approvals to complete the transaction by the end of this year. We remain confident that the transaction will create meaningful value for customers, communities, the Mexican aviation industry, our investors, and the investors. The second quarter, now to finish, demonstrated the resilience of our model and the strength of our execution. Our priorities remain clear: maintain a strong liquidity position, expand margins, and translate the recovery of our fleet into sustainable earnings and free cash flow. We enter the second half with stronger commercial momentum, improving fleet productivity, and confidence in our ability to continue delivering against these priorities. I'll now turn the call over for Q&A.

Operator

Thank you. The floor is now open for questions. If you have a question, please press star one one on your phone at this time or any time. If at any point your question is answered, you may remove yourself from the queue by pressing star one one again. Questions will be taken in the order that they are received. Please hold while we compile a Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI. You may proceed.

Speaker 5

Hey, thank you. Good morning. I wanted to ask you about the factors influencing your CASM Ex outlook, which you touched on for the second quarter, but I wonder if you can maybe quantify the impact of these in the third quarter outlook. If we think about currency, if we think about lease return expense, and potential changes in the GTF reimbursement, how should we think about the underlying core trend excluding those factors?

Speaker 4

Hello, Duane. This is Jaime. For the Q3 and the rest of the year, Duane, I think the CASM is going to be in the level as we guided for the Q3, which is $0.0635. The factors influencing it obviously continue to be the foreign exchange. Remember that a stronger peso has an impact on the cost. It has some impact on the increase of capacity to the U.S. U.S. operations cost a little bit more than the domestic operation, which is strategic because of the benefit of the revenue. We will continue to have maintenance events related to the engines with delivery of 6 more aircraft during the second half of the year. In addition, one-time transactional fees related to the merger regulatory process and closing.

Speaker 4

In addition, you will note that since we are lowering the number of AOGs, we closed the quarter from 41 to 24 at the end of the quarter. We are receiving lower compensation by Pratt that you will see it in the other operating income line at the expense lines.

Speaker 5

Okay, that's helpful. Then I just wanted to check with where your fleet is headed. I think you said, what was a year-end 2027 number of 135 or 137. I just want to check that compares with where you sit at 155 today. Maybe you could just clarify where the total fleet sits today and just reiterate where you think that'll be exiting next year. Thanks for taking the questions.

Speaker 4

Sorry, I turned off the mic. Total fleet today is 155 aircraft. By the end of 2027, we expect to be at 137 aircraft. This year, for the remaining of the year, the AOGs will be in the mid-20s to low 20s. It moves every day. Engines are going to the shops. We are receiving engines. You're going to see different planes. Think about the year is as planned, as we executed, to close the year in the low 20s number. The rest of the year, 2027, we expect to be back to normality to only a few AOGs by the end of 2027. As you can see, that's an important reduction in lease liabilities. As mentioned in the call, we expect to reduce this liability from $3.2 billion to $2.8 billion.

Speaker 4

The annual savings in rents on 2027 compared to 2026 should be around $50 million.

Speaker 5

Okay, I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Linenberg with Deutsche Bank. You may proceed

Speaker 6

Oh, yeah. Hey. Good morning, everyone. One of your primary competitors highlighted the fact that in the June quarter, they were able to achieve a 75% recapture rate of the higher fuel expense, and the forecast was to get to at least 50%. We've seen other airlines at 50%. Maybe what were you expecting, and where did you come out in the June quarter? Can you just give us a sense of that trajectory in that recapture rate as we move through the year?

Speaker 3

Hi, Michael. This is Holger.

Speaker 6

Oh, hey Holger.

Speaker 3

Good morning. In terms of our fuel recapture calculation, it is based on the TRASM and jet fuel assumptions embedded in our February guidance.

Speaker 3

on the 25 levels as many other airlines calculate fuel recapture.

Speaker 6

Okay.

Speaker 3

In the second quarter, we achieved a 28% recapture based on that calculation, and that was on the high end of what we guided in the previous call. If you look at the fuel recapture broken down by geography, the cross-border U.S.-Mexico market remains the highest contributor to the fuel recapture. It currently represents about 40% of our total capacity, and it continues to deliver strong pricing and revenue quality. If you look at the second quarter, the fuel recapture from the U.S.-Mexico transporter market was about 86%.

Speaker 3

In the domestic market, it was lower because the domestic market follows a different dynamic. As a ULCC carrier, we are serving more price-sensitive customers in Mexico. As you know, Mexico is an emerging aviation market, and

Speaker 3

stimulate demand, looking at the price-sensitive customer base. We calibrated fares carefully in the domestic market and improved our revenues, while also preserving accessibility, and volumes, and demand in the Mexican domestic market. If we look at the second half of the year, we expect that our commercial actions will continue to offset, in a meaningful way, the fuel price pressures. Our focus will remain on improving TRASM through disciplined pricing and capacity allocation. That obviously will support earnings in the second quarter. Also remember, Michael, that in the Mexican market, there is fuel and diesel subsidies in the domestic market for other means of transportation, and we compete, obviously, against other means of transportations more than in the transport market, and that's why the fuel recapture rate is lower.

Speaker 3

one final point, in terms of the recent unit revenue improvements that you saw in the second quarter and that we project for the second half.

Speaker 3

it reflects more than just fuel pass-through. It reflects a stronger network mix, better segmentation, growing customer affinity, and a more developed ancillary platform.

Speaker 6

Okay. That's helpful. Super helpful, Holger. just one quick follow-up here. I saw the headlines out that you are going to be introducing the Starlink product on your airplanes. Based on what we know about that, there is obviously a CapEx impact. There is a cost of installing on every single airplane, and then there's also an ongoing, call it a service fee, as well as the fact that we've seen carriers that have signed up for Starlink that they have to offer it for free. I think about your bundling or unbundling model. Are you in a position where you will be able to charge for Starlink? Can you also talk about the potential CapEx impact of installing that, or maybe that's going to be borne by or shared with Starlink. Thanks for taking my question.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Michael. This is Holger again. The Starlink contract was negotiated as part of Indigo Partners deal. We negotiated together with the other Indigo airlines, and we achieved a very good deal with Starlink. We believe that the rollout is going to be in 2027 on our entire fleet.

Speaker 6

Okay

Speaker 3

We believe that this is going to meaningfully enhance our ancillary platform. The commercials of how much we're going to charge exactly is not defined yet, we're working on that.

Speaker 6

Okay.

Speaker 3

We do believe it will meaningfully improve our ancillary revenues.

Speaker 6

Absolutely. Great. Thanks, Holger.

Speaker 3

On the CapEx side, what we are seeing is that the benefit that we are going to get in the cost from data that we are going to get for operation will fully amortize the investment in CapEx that we will need to make in order to install the equipment on the planes.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Gabriel Frazao with Bank of America. You may proceed.

Speaker 7

Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. Regarding the third quarter TRASM guidance, could you provide some color on how much of the booking curve has already been sold for this quarter? Also, if based on what you are seeing today, if fares are tracking in line with your expectations, do you believe there could still be some room for upside in relation to this TRASM guidance?

Speaker 3

Thank you. This is Holger again. In terms of the third quarter, what we are seeing right now is that demand remains resilient. We are proactively managing capacity and the fares in both the international and domestic markets based on what the booking trends are and what we're seeing, and obviously the volumes and load factors as well. If we look at the capacity, we have allocated capacity based on the highest economic opportunities across our network. For summer specifically, that means that we're adding capacity both in the domestic and international markets, obviously where demand and pricing supports attractive returns. However, if you look into the September month, which is low season, we will trim capacity in line with seasonality and demand patterns. As I mentioned earlier, the international fare absorption, the pass-through that we are achieving in the international market, is particularly strong.

Speaker 3

We continue to have an important gap in terms of fares versus our international competitors and the legacy carriers. We have allocated more capacity into the international markets as we are seeing stronger demand and fare absorption there. In Mexico, where we serve that price-sensitive customer base that I was mentioning, we are carefully calibrating fares to improve TRASM while preserving volumes and affordability. We are seeing strong demands in the domestic market. We are looking at load factors of 89% in the second quarter. As July and August are high seasons, we are optimistic about what we're seeing in the high season. As a note, we are already three weeks into July. We have three weeks under our belt in July. The load factors and TRASM performance has been strong.

Speaker 3

In August, we have also good visibility on our booking curves and the trend for August continues. Obviously those two months have the highest execution risk for the third quarter, and we are optimistic of achieving the TRASM guidance of 9.9 for the third quarter.

Speaker 7

Okay, that's very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Filipe Nielsen with Citi. You may proceed.

Speaker 8

Hey. Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. I have a follow-up on the ex-Q costs. I just wanted to understand, you explained a little bit the dynamics behind the guidance and how are you expecting the multiple effects into the second half. Just wondering how fleet utilization factors in. You're deploying a lot of capacity in the summer, but pulling back after September, and at the same time, you're receiving AOGs and changing the fleet. Just wondering how the fleet utilization is evolving in the second half, and how should we understand this to be factored in your expectations for the CASM ex-Q in the second half? Thank you.

Speaker 4

This is Jaime. As we explained, you are going to see utilization lower in the months of September and October, then improving in November and going to the standard above 13 hours, 14 hours for the month of December. Obviously, it has an impact on the cost, but considering current fuel environment is an investment decision to do that. If you look at the $0.0635 guidance, you can think that around 20% of that additional cost is coming from the lower utilization versus historical level of above 13%. It's contributing in liquidity and cash for the company.

Speaker 8

Great. This is clear. Thank you. Just, if I may, one follow-up on the fleet plans. Just wondering how the redeliveries and the deliveries pace are evolving in the second half. Have you received all or most of the new NEOs for the year, or is there any remaining deliveries in the second half? Just wondering how the fleet mix and delivery space is evolving. Thank you.

Speaker 4

Of course. We are going to be redelivering 6 aircrafts in the second half of the year. At the same period of time, we are going to get deliveries of a similar number of aircrafts. The total deliveries were around 8, but we already sold 4 of them. In terms of total aircraft, we are going to be lowering the number from the start of the year to the end of the year, even in 2026.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley. You may proceed

Speaker 9

Yes. Hello guys. I have a question on the fuel recapture guide of 100% by the end of the year. What is implied in terms of TRASM there and jet fuel? You are guiding for a lower jet fuel for the year versus third quarter. Is it around $3 per gallon? Is TRASM around the level we will see for the third quarter? Is that about right?

Speaker 4

How are you? This is Jaime. The guidance that we are providing assumes a third Q Gulf Coast jet fuel price of $3.50 and a fourth Q of 2026 of $3.08.

Speaker 9

Zero eight. Okay. More or less TRASM, could we assume that you will keep it at the $0.099$ level, or are further increases expected or even some declines? How should we think about it?

Speaker 4

Seasonality, you know the fourth Q is stronger than the third Q. TRASM for the fourth Q is going to be higher, we expect, than the guidance that we provided on the $0.099$ for the third Q.

Speaker 9

Oh, nice. Okay. If I may, just one additional question on the redelivery. For the full year, assuming you redeliver six in the second half, to what number will you get for the full year? Is it around 14?

Speaker 4

Less

Speaker 9

Also, how does this translate into the redelivery provisions? I want to understand how it will change in 2027 versus 2026, because I think you will have a similar amount of redeliveries in 2027, right?

Speaker 4

Correct. For the full year, we are redelivering in 2026, 11 aircraft. Three redeliveries, instead of redelivering the plane because it was financially more attractive, we bought the planes. We already sold the frames and kept the engines to do the staggering program in order to reduce maintenance on redelivery on the engines. Next year is a similar number. Currently, we have 12 aircraft that we are going to be redelivering in 2027.

Speaker 9

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Julia Orsi with JPMorgan. You may proceed.

Speaker 10

Yes. Hello, everyone. Good morning. We have two questions on our side. The first one, can you comment on more details on the 2027 capacity outlook? I know it's still early, but considering this fleet optimization plan that you just mentioned and the brand new normalization, what is, let's say, the base case so far for next year? The second, can you provide a breakdown for the CapEx in 2026, based on the guidance? Thank you.

Speaker 4

As you know, normally the way that we plan in our five-year plan, we have a base capacity role of around 5% in terms of ASMs, with the ability to increase three or to reduce three points depending on how we see demand and market demand. That's the standard, that's the way we built in the flexibility on the fleet with that base increase of 5% year-over-year. Turning out in the CapEx, I will say that most of the CapEx is related to the number of maintenance events related to the engines, the number of inductions and heavy maintenance events. With some of those expenses, we are accelerating the depreciation because they were going to happen later on, but we want to get the durability on the engine once we get the engine back.

Speaker 4

The other part of the CapEx is also related to maintenance, but to the redelivery of the planes. I will say that that's more than 90% of the CapEx involving the $350 million guidance.

Speaker 10

Super clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Alberto Valerio with UBS. You may proceed.

Speaker 11

Hi, good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for taking my questions. I have one about the results. If you could provide more details on the split on revenues. We see ancillary revenues with a lower share from the total revenues. Also on the cost side, if you could provide some details on the expansion cost for the air traffic, whether it's a pass-through from the airports or whether it's a mix of international and domestic airports. If you could provide details on these two lines from the results of the second quarter, we would appreciate. Thank you very much.

Speaker 3

Our ancillary platform is maturing. We achieved $59 per passenger in the second quarter in ancillary revenues per passenger, about 56% of total operating revenues. Most improvements come from dynamic pricing of the ancillaries, especially the fare combos that we offer to our customers. We are approaching one year anniversary of our loyalty program, Altitude, which is picking up nicely. Obviously we have our vacation package business as well, which is ramping as expected. We continue on a positive trajectory for ancillaries also going into the second half of the year.

Speaker 11

Thank you.

Speaker 4

Just adding up on Holger's comment, the landing and navigations are increasing because of two factor: greater flying to the U.S. cross-border market, and the second, we are having the increase in operations in terms of volume.

Speaker 11

Fantastic. Thank you so much.

Operator

Excuse me. That is all the time we have for questions. This concludes today's question and answer session. I would like to invite management to proceed with his closing remarks. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 4

Just thank you to our ambassadors as well as our board of directors, investors, bankers, lessors and suppliers for all their support in this very difficult quarter, okay? I think we have stated good numbers. We keep on working very hard in the middle of the fuel crisis. We look forward to entering the third quarter with a continuous momentum and continuous discipline. I look forward to speaking to you on our next call. Thank you very much to everybody again.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes the Volaris conference call for today. Thank you very much for your participation. Have a nice day.

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