Lennox International Q2 2026 Earnings Report

Lennox International EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $7.72
• Consensus EPS: $7.67
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.05
• One Year Ago EPS: $7.82

Lennox International Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $1.55 billion
• Expected Revenue: $1.56 billion
• Beat/Miss: Missed by -$14.45 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: +3.00%

Lennox International Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2026
• Date: 7/29/2026
• Time: Before Market Opens
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, July 29, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 9:30AM ET

Lennox International (NYSE:LII) Inc. (NYSE:LII) designs, manufactures and markets heating, ventilation, air conditioning and refrigeration products. Its offerings include residential furnaces, air conditioners, heat pumps, indoor air-quality systems, thermostats and related controls, as well as commercial heating and cooling equipment and refrigeration solutions.

The company serves residential and commercial customers through a network of independent dealers, distributors, contractors and other channel partners. Its principal markets are in North America, where Lennox products are used in homes, businesses and other buildings.

Lennox traces its history to 1895, when Dave Lennox developed an innovative riveted-steel furnace in Marshalltown, Iowa. The company is headquartered in Richardson, Texas, and is led by President and Chief Executive Officer Alok Maskara.

Lennox International Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Negative Sentiment: Residential demand remained weak: Home Comfort Solutions revenue fell 7%, with unit volumes down 12% and new-construction revenue down approximately 30%. Lennox cited affordability pressures, low consumer confidence, and its decision to exit low-margin business.
• Negative Sentiment: Lennox reduced its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to $23–$24 from its prior forecast, primarily because lower residential volumes are expected to outweigh stronger commercial demand. HCS revenue growth guidance was cut to approximately 1% from 4%, while productivity expectations declined to $60 million from $75 million.
• Positive Sentiment: Building Climate Solutions continued to outperform: Revenue increased 24% and organic sales rose 12%, supported by national-account wins, emergency replacement demand, service growth, acquisitions, and favorable execution. Management said the segment is gaining share and expects continued volume growth.
• Positive Sentiment: The recently completed Comfort-Aire, Century, and Coast Air acquisition expands Lennox’s small- and mid-size distributor reach and is expected to be EPS-accretive in 2027, with potential benefits from product integration, logistics, and SG&A synergies.
• Positive Sentiment: Cash generation and the balance sheet remained strong, with $172 million of quarterly operating cash flow, 92% trailing-12-month free-cash-flow conversion, net debt at 1.3 times adjusted EBITDA, and unchanged full-year free-cash-flow guidance of $750–$850 million. Lennox also repurchased approximately $130 million of shares during the quarter.

Presentation

[Operator]

Welcome to the Lennox 2026 second quarter earnings call. All lines are in a listen-only mode, and there will be a question-and-answer session at the end of the presentation. You may enter the queue to ask a question by pressing star one on your phone. To exit the queue, press star two. As a reminder, this call is being recorded. I will now turn the call over to Chelsey Pulcheon from Lennox Investor Relations. Chelsey, please go ahead.

[Chelsey Pulcheon, VP of Investor Relations at Lennox]

Thank you, Madison. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us as we share our 2026 second quarter results. Joining me today is CEO Alok Maskara and CFO Michael Quenzer. Each will share their prepared remarks before we move to the Q&A session. Turning to slide two, a reminder that during today's call, we will be making certain forward-looking statements which are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties as outlined on this page.

[Chelsey Pulcheon, VP of Investor Relations at Lennox]

We may also refer to certain non-GAAP financial measures that management considers relevant indicators of underlying business performance. Please refer to our SEC filings available on our Investor Relations website for additional details, including a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP measures. The earnings release, today's presentation, and the webcast archive link for today's call are available on our Investor Relations website at investor.lennox.com.

[Chelsey Pulcheon, VP of Investor Relations at Lennox]

Please turn to slide three as I turn the call over to our CEO, Alok Maskara.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Thank you, Chelsey. Good morning, everyone, thank you for joining us today. Please turn to slide three. The second quarter demonstrated the strength of our direct-to-dealer business model, our dedicated talent, and proactive actions taken to manage the current operating environment. I want to thank our employees for improving our customer's experience through enhanced digital and distribution capabilities. I also want to thank our customers and channel partners for navigating a dynamic market environment alongside us. Lennox delivered a solid second quarter. Revenue increased 3% to $1.5 billion.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Total segment profit increased 2% to $355 million, and adjusted earnings per share were flat at $7.72. Within Home Comfort Solutions, year-over-year quarterly performance improved sequentially, though the pace of end market recovery remains muted. Elevated mortgage rates, inflationary pressures, and historically low consumer confidence are constraining underlying demand.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Looking ahead, channel confidence is continuing to grow, and consumer confidence is starting to rebound, which supports our positive long-term outlook for the market. Building Climate Solutions, once again, performed exceptionally well. We are seeing signs of progress across commercial end markets, momentum in emergency replacement, and strong execution in the field to gain share and grow margins.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Taken together, the results from the two segments demonstrate the value of our portfolio and the balance it provides across market cycles. Our long-term demand outlook remains unchanged, even though the residential demand recovery has been slower than anticipated. As a result, we now expect the most meaningful recovery benefits to extend into 2027 rather than occur in the back half of this year. While we are reducing our earnings outlook, several key elements of our 2026 financial framework, such as revenue and free cash conversion, have not changed.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Our balance sheet remains healthy, and we remain on track with our inventory reduction plans. Their combined strength and the industry's long-term outlook provides us with the confidence to continue investing in the business, advancing strategic initiatives, and strengthening our competitive position. Now, please turn to slide four. Let me spend a minute on our recently completed acquisition of the Comfort-Aire, Century, and Coast Air brands.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

This acquisition is an excellent example of a disciplined bolt-on M&A approach. The acquisition expands our reach into small and mid-size distributor channel and broadens our product offering, allowing us to further accelerate growth. It also sharpens our focus on customer experience by enabling one order, one invoice, and one shipment to our distribution and contractor partners for most HVACR equipment, accessories, and parts.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Finally, we see meaningful opportunities to drive margin improvement through product integration, logistic synergies, and streamline SG&A through the application of the Lennox Unified Management System and expect the business to be accretive to our EPS in 2027. This strategic bolt-on acquisition, along with Duro Dyne and Supco acquisition completed in 2025 and the AES acquisition completed in 2023, reinforce our disciplined capital deployment strategy.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Now, let's turn to slide five and discuss the current demand environment and how we are positioning the business for growth acceleration. The factors affecting residential demands today, including affordability pressures, weather variability, softer consumer sentiment, and suppressed new construction activity, are, in our view, temporary. We believe that much of the shift from replace to repair represents deferred replacements and the underlying demand profile remains unchanged. Our focus remains on controlling the controllables.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

We continue to invest in innovative heat pumps, emergency replacement capabilities, and our direct-to-dealer model to make it easier for customers to work with Lennox. Leveraging our successful acquisitions, we are expanding our parts, accessories, and service offerings, thus creating additional touch points with customers. At the same time, we are leaning into initiatives that strengthen our long-term competitive position, including distribution network optimization and partnerships like Samsung and Ariston to grow share of wallet. Rather than getting weighed down by short-term market fluctuations, we are executing our strategy and investing in the capabilities that matter most when demand returns. With that, I will turn it over to Michael to review our financials.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Thank you, Alok. Good morning, everyone. Please turn to slide six. The quarter reflected a mixed operating environment across the portfolio. Residential demand is still challenging, while strong commercial execution and contributions from recent acquisitions helped support overall performance. We continue to navigate cost inflation and factory absorption pressures associated with lower residential production levels.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

These headwinds were partially offset by pricing actions and the timing of certain tariff refunds. Cash generation and a disciplined focus on the working capital management supported strong cash flow performance during the quarter. Against that backdrop, let's turn to Home Comfort Solutions on slide seven. Residential market conditions remained challenging during the second quarter, although year-over-year demand trends improved compared to the first quarter. Compared to the prior year period, revenue declined 7%, driven primarily by a 12% decline in unit volumes.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Favorable mix and pricing contributed 3% growth, while acquisitions added another 2%, partially offsetting the volume decline. While volumes were down year-over-year again, this represented a meaningful improvement from the 21% decline experienced in the first quarter. Performance varied across channels. Two-step volumes were relatively flat compared to the prior year, while one-step volumes declined in the mid-teens, driven largely by continued weakness in residential new construction, where revenues were down approximately 30% during the quarter.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Segment profit declined $30 million. Lower sales volumes created approximately $50 million of EBIT headwinds during the quarter. Mix and price were favorable and mostly offset cost pressures, including ongoing inflation and approximately $10 million of factory absorption headwinds as we align inventory levels with market demand. Product costs also benefited from approximately $25 million of tariff refunds that we had originally expected later in the year.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Let's move to slide eight and discuss our Building Climate Solutions segment. Following strong growth in the first quarter, Building Climate Solutions maintained its momentum in the second quarter, supported by improving commercial end markets and continued execution on our growth initiatives. Revenue increased 24% with organic sales up 12%. Growth was driven by success with national account customers and an increase in emergency replacement activity. Our service business also grew as customers increasingly leverage our combined equipment and service capabilities.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Mix and price contributed 3%, while acquisitions added 9%, primarily from Duro Dyne. Segment profit also increased, benefiting from higher volumes and favorable mix in price. Product costs reflected inflationary and production cost pressures and were partially offset by approximately $5 million of tariff refunds. Within other costs, Duro Dyne contributed approximately $11 million of M&A accretion, offset in part by investments in customer-facing digital capabilities and innovation.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Let's turn to slide nine to review cash flow and capital deployment. We generated $172 million of operating cash flow in the second quarter and delivered 92% trailing 12-month free cash flow conversion, reflecting disciplined working capital execution and progress on inventory reduction. While inventory dollars were flat to December due to inflation and tariff-related cost increases, unit inventory levels continued to decline, and we remain on track to achieve our full-year inventory reduction implied in our full-year free cash flow guidance.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Our balance sheet is strong, with net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 1.3 times at quarter end. During Q2, we repurchased approximately $130 million of shares, and after quarter end, we completed the acquisition of the Comfort-Aire and Century brands using approximately $200 million of debt. We are also refining our full-year capital expenditure outlook to approximately $225 million, down from $250 million.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

The change reflects project timing, our key investment priorities are unchanged. With that, let's turn to slide 10 and discuss our updated financial guidance. As Alok outlined, we are updating our full-year adjusted EPS guidance range to $23-$24.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

While our overall revenue growth outlook holds at approximately 8%, the composition of that growth has evolved since our prior guidance. At the segment level, we now expect Home Comfort Solutions revenue growth of approximately 1% compared to our prior expectation of 4%. Building Climate Solutions revenue growth is now expected to be approximately 20% compared to our prior expectation of 16%. These changes reflect lower expected residential volumes, stronger commercial demand, and approximately one point of enterprise revenue growth from the Comfort-Aire and Century brands acquisition. This acquisition adds approximately two points within ACS.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

The reduction in our EPS outlook is primarily driven by lower net volume expectations, as stronger commercial demand is more than offset by lower expected residential volumes. We now expect approximately $60 million of productivity versus our prior expectation of $75 million, reflecting ongoing absorption headwinds from lower residential volumes and the delayed timing of some material cost reduction initiatives as resources were shifted to tariff mitigation. Interest expense is expected to increase to approximately $70 million, and M&A amortization to approximately $25 million, following the Comfort-Aire and Century brands acquisition.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Importantly, our free cash flow outlook remains unchanged at $750 million-$850 million, reflecting confidence in our inventory reduction plans and working capital execution. Other guidance assumptions, including inflation, investments, tax rate, and share count, have not changed.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

While residential demand is still below our expectations, the strength of our commercial business and continued cash generation position us well for the balance of year profit growth. With that, I'll turn the call back to Alok.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Thanks, Michael. As we close, I want to reemphasize that while current market conditions are dynamic, I believe the long-term growth trajectory of the industry is very attractive. What gives me confidence is the performance of our portfolio, the durability of our cash generation, and our ability to continue investing towards growth. We are committed to innovation and operational excellence while continuing to allocate capital to expand our capabilities and improve our customer offerings. Most importantly, the dedication of our employees and the values that define our culture continue to drive excellence at Lennox. Our fundamentals are strong, our strategy is clear, our best days are still ahead of us. Thank you. We are happy to answer your questions now. Madison, let's go to Q&A.

[Operator]

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, press star one on your keypad. To leave the queue at any time, press star two. Once again, that is star one to ask a question, and we'll pause for just a moment to allow everyone a chance to join the queue. Thank you. We will take our first question from Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please go ahead.

[Ryan Merkel, Analyst at William Blair]

Hey, everyone. Thanks for the questions. Wanted to start on the resi revenues. The down 12% for the one-step is surprising. What are the key issues, Alok, and then any steps you're taking to improve the results?

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Sure, Ryan. Majority of the decline was due to residential new construction, where we talked earlier about we walked away from really low-margin business, and a large portion of that impact is being felt in Q2 due to seasonality. That doesn't mask that the underlying sell-through also remains weak, but is improving both sequentially and as we look at this going forward. That's agree, we kind of look at the negative 12%. We have internally done a lot of analysis and feel confident that that starts improving because we lap some of the residential low margin loss in the second half, and the comps get easier even on the overall secure market dynamics.

[Ryan Merkel, Analyst at William Blair]

Got it. Okay. That's helpful. On the guidance cut, it sounds like you had included the refunds from tariffs in the guide. Just confirm that for us, and then it looks like resi, you're going to have weaker margins in the second half. Is that just the fixed cost absorption on the lower volumes, or is there anything else in there that's pressuring the margins?

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

That's correct. On the tariff guidance, we had built an inflation assumption of 5%. That includes the net impact of all increases within the 232 tariffs that we saw earlier in the year and the IEEPA refunds that we expected initially in the second half of the year that we've now gotten most of in the second quarter now.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

There's nothing else based on the second question, Ryan. It is just simply impact of lower volume and the absorption impact related to that.

[Ryan Merkel, Analyst at William Blair]

Okay. Got it. All right. Thanks. Pass it on.

[Operator]

Thank you. We'll move next to Tommy Moll with Stephens. Please go ahead.

[Tommy Moll, Analyst at Stephens]

Good morning, thank you for taking my questions.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Hi, Tommy.

[Tommy Moll, Analyst at Stephens]

Alok, first question for you on the one-step trends for resi. Noted that there's the new construction headwind. Some of that relates to low margin business you've walked away from. I'm more interested on the replacement side there. What's your view on how market share has progressed? Have you seen any evolution or pressure there?

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Yeah. On replacement, we have seen a small market share gain, while in new construction we have seen a significant loss, as we talked about earlier. We continue to build our distribution network efficiencies, continue investing in the sales team. We are pleased with our market share position in the replacement, which has actually ticked up over the past 12 months.

[Tommy Moll, Analyst at Stephens]

Related question for you on pricing, Alok, specific to resi. It seems like there have been some different strategies year to date. Some have raised and then lowered depending on differing tariff assumptions. Others have been slower to move. Just characterize for us what the Lennox strategy has been there and what you've seen across the market. There's just been a lot of volatility on that point.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Sure. Putting residential new construction aside, because that's a different story, we continue to see higher inflation being offset by pricing action across the wide spectrum. We continue to remain focused and do price competitively. A large portion of the 232 tariff pricing is going to get into effect on 1st July, which is consistent with how some of the other competitors have done. We feel good about where we are in the replacement side of the business on the residential portion. Obviously, we continue monitoring it. We want to be fair with our channel. Some of the early arrival of tariff refunds also impacted how we thought about pricing and how we're going to take this going forward. We were able to delay some of the pricing actions because of the early arrival of the tariff refunds.

[Tommy Moll, Analyst at Stephens]

Thank you, Alok. I'll turn it back.

[Operator]

Thank you. We'll move next to Noah Kaye with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

[Noah Kaye, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

Good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Just to make sure that we've got it on the revised guide, two points. One, I think you contemplated resi volumes down mid-single digits for the year. Does that sort of shift now to down high single digit, down 10%? Can you give us a finer point on that? The guidance on inflation expectations remaining unchanged with the Section 232 partial reprieve, was there an offset to some of that goodness to keep the inflation guide intact?

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Sure, Noah, I'll give you a little bit of insights on that. Within the HCS volume guides, it now is high single digits. We expect most of the balance of year growth to happen within the indirect channel as you have a favorable comp year-over-year. On the direct channel, we expect balance of year to be down low single digits or so within the direct channel in the balance of the year. Within the inflation, we still expect to be 5%. There's a little bit of benefit that we saw with the adjustment to the Section 232s, we continue to see inflation on commodities, fuel, memory. Those mostly offset that benefit.

[Noah Kaye, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

Okay, thanks. When we look at the two segments and the demand trends juxtaposed, really it is seemingly a tale of two markets. Feels a little unusual to have such bifurcation, can you talk a little bit about the drivers of the light commercial strength? You mentioned some nice wins, clearly national accounts, emergency replacement, how much of this is sort of underlying versus Lennox share gains?

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

I think there is significant Lennox share gain that I want to give credit to the team. As we build a new factory, we are focused a lot more on emergency replacement, that's clearly playing out as we expected, maybe slightly better than we expected. At the same time, the extra capacity is helping us win back the national accounts. From end market perspective, remember, this is the end market that was from the AHRI data down continuously for 17, 18 months in a row now is finally turning around the corner. I would say among the improvement, large portion is share gain, there's definitely a benefit of the market not declining anymore and showing some signs of life.

[Noah Kaye, Analyst at Oppenheimer]

Yep. Helpful. Thank you, Alok.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will move next to Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Jeffrey Hammond, Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets]

Hey, good morning, guys.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Morning, Jeff.

[Jeffrey Hammond, Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets]

Just back, it looks like HCS, you're bringing down five points on a core basis. Is that just all sell-through demand weakness, or is this RNC walk away a bigger number, or is there some other nuance in there? My second one would be just repair, replace. A lot of people are saying it's normalizing exiting A2L and this canister issue and just what are you seeing there?

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Sure. The answer first is, it is all one step. Two step, we continue to see good growth, and we are forecasting the lack of destocking leading to good growth in the second half as well. For two step. One step, the RNC loss is within the one step. I think that's why those two numbers overlap. I would say the large part of the decline in Q2 in one step was driven by RNC, and that's a heavy quarter for RNC, as you know. Even our reduction in the second half is primarily due to that. We do see some underlying demand recovery that's been delayed, we think from our perspective, the repair versus replace trend has stabilized. We see the channel confidence, which was impacted last year because of canister shortage, has returned fully.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

We all know that the consumer confidence sort of bouncing along based on war and other pieces. A short answer to your question, Jeff, is that a large portion of the one-step decline is residential new construction, low margin business that we walked away from.

[Jeffrey Hammond, Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets]

I guess my question is that walk away number bigger now than you thought, or you knew that was there and your revision's really all underlying replacement weaker?

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

It is bigger than what we had originally looked at. That market remains extremely competitive. The margins were just not acceptable. It is a little more than what we had originally thought and talked about.

[Jeffrey Hammond, Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets]

Okay. Appreciate it. Thanks.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will move next to Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Analyst at Vertical Research]

Hey, thanks. Good morning. I just wanted to get some insight into how to think about margins for HCS into the back half. We got some absorption issues, right? We're walking away from lower margin business. I guess you have some time for price to catch up a bit. Can you just give us some insight on how you think margins progress over the balance of the year in HCS? Maybe relative to what we posted here in Q2 or relative to last year, certainly be helpful.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Yeah, Jeff, we expect the margin headwind year-over-year in the second half to be better than the first half, even after you adjust for some of the tariff refunds, mostly driven by the volume growth that we expect now of low single digits balance of the year, so you get the 35% incremental on that. Also, we had a much heavier first half absorption headwind, we're going to pick up a point or two of price in the second half versus the first half as some of the new pricing initiatives that Alok mentioned starting in July come in. Better margin performance in the second half as the volumes start to come back.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Jeff, to your earlier point, I want to add that our product mix is positive right now because of walking away from loss-making accounts. That just masked by the other factors that Michael mentioned because of all the noise around absorption and the pieces. The underlying mix is positive for us given our decision to not compete on those lower margin, negative margin accounts.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Analyst at Vertical Research]

Is it overly optimistic to think that HCS margins are up on a year-over-year basis in the back half?

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Well, you're going to get some headwind from the M&A that's a bit dilutive. Price cost is a bit dilutive. The volumes are accretive. All of that still might lean to slightly negative.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

No. I think overall question is we think it's pretty balanced, Jeff. We don't think it's optimistic, nor do we think it's super conservative. We're trying to put a very balanced picture forward.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Analyst at Vertical Research]

Right. Something around sort of flattish to slightly down margins in the back half, I think is what you're indicating, if I read that right.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Yeah. That's basically within the guide, that's approximate.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Within the range, yeah.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Analyst at Vertical Research]

What do you actually think industry volumes were in Q2?

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

The June AHRI data and everything else that we looked at continues to show us continued difference between sell in and sell through. That's obviously going to become a much longer conversation, Jeff, but we think the sell in has obviously improved substantially, and we see that in our numbers. I think the sell through, we still have to get more data and see how everybody comes through. I think that still remains under pressure.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Analyst at Vertical Research]

Maybe last one. Do we still have a little bit more work to do on channel inventory as it relates to Lennox and some related absorption headwinds from that in the back half?

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

No, I think we are pretty complete on that, Jeff. The channel inventory is pretty normalized, and there's no more destocking.

[Jeffrey Sprague, Analyst at Vertical Research]

Okay, great. Thanks, guys. I'll leave it there.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will move next to Stephen Volkmann with Jefferies. Please go ahead.

[Stephen Volkmann, Analyst at Jefferies]

Great. Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. Maybe just to put a sharp point on it, the one step down 12%, are you willing to sort of say what you think the walk away business was of that 12%?

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

No, we're not willing to go into that level of account details of where it was, but we can just tell you, vast majority of that 12% was residential new construction.

[Stephen Volkmann, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay. All right. Worth a shot. Alok, I think on previous calls we've talked a little bit about sort of affordability and inflation in the end market and maybe some demand destruction. I think your view was that the most likely source of give there was going to be in the installer margins. I think that was two or three quarters ago we had that conversation. I'm curious if you're starting to see any sort of price normalization to the consumer that might sort of address this affordability issue.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

We are. I think this obviously, the problem is synonymous with the repair versus replace. Consumers, when there's demand destruction for equipment, they still have to repair it. We do see movement there. I think our contractors are running more promotions. They're getting more aggressive. We are. All the other manufacturers are running more consumer-based promotions to take this forward. Yes, I think we are all very aware of that and both the channel and the manufacturers are doing our part to increase affordability and make sure promotional dollars get applied to consumer purchase.

[Stephen Volkmann, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay. Appreciate it. Pass it on.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will move next to Chris Snyder with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

[Chris Snyder, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you. I wanted to follow up on some of the HCS margin discussion. I guess if we adjust out $25 million from Q2 operating profit, it seems like it takes that 23.7% to a 21.0%. Maybe, just like, is that right? It seems like almost every year, segment margins decline sequentially into both Q3 and Q4. I guess the question is should we be running sequential declines off that 21% number? I couldn't really follow all of the communication before. Thank you.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Let me start by that saying, we wanted to give you the tariff refund number for the sake of transparency, that's how we are as a company. I don't think it's fair to exclude the tariff refunds as one-time, remember, our overall impact of tariff pricing, all of that continues in the second half. A lot of our pricing actions are going into effect in the beginning of Q3. While we give you the numbers for sake of transparency, I don't think it's fair to take it out fully pricing would have offset portions of that if it hadn't come through. In the margin in Q2, Q3, yes, Q2 is typically a highest margin. I think today, and this year is not the normal environment, given lots of changes around pricing dynamics, tariff, inflation. Michael mentioned all those pieces.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

I mean, we feel very comfortable for the full second half guide as we have given, it's difficult to break it down between Q3 and Q4 at this stage for you guys.

[Chris Snyder, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you. I appreciate that. I wasn't really commenting on whether or not it's appropriate to leave it in the EPS. I was just kind of more trying to figure out what the true underlying margin was in Q2 as we build into the back half. Is it fair to run the declines off of the 23.7% or the 21.0%? If that question makes sense.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Yeah, I would focus more on just our guide points that we expect volumes second half to be up low single digits. You get 35% incremental on that. Price cost neutral, more price coming in. I think that's what I would focus on the second half, and that's what we're focused on delivering.

[Chris Snyder, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you. I appreciate that. If I could also just follow up on the second half. It seems to me like you guys are calling for HCS revenue in Q3 just to be mid to high single digits above Q2. Is that right? I guess the question I have is, I think the only year where HCS, the revenue increased sequentially into Q3 was Q3 2024, which was of course the start of the refrigerant build. I would just kind of want to make sure I have that sequential top line movement right on HCS. Thank you.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Yeah, we don't give quarterly guidance. What I'll say is keep looking back to the second half that we expect Q3 year-over-year better than the Q2 year-over-year, Q4 year-over-year better than Q3. Continue to see it improve year-over-year as we go through the balance of the year with the volumes up low single digits balance of the year, mostly around the indirect channel.

[Chris Snyder, Analyst at Morgan Stanley]

Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. We'll move next to Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

[Nicole DeBlase, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Hi, Nicole.

[Nicole DeBlase, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Hello. I guess I just have a few nitpicky ones since we've been through a lot in Q&A already. I guess first, under absorption, I feel like you guys were kind of implying that you had seen most of that headwind in the first half of that. Maybe there could be a little bit in the second half. Can you just give us a sense if under absorption is still a headwind in second half?

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

there's a small headwind within the guide now. We reduced some of that cost productivity for that additional absorption, mostly related to now that we have lower sales volumes, we still want to hit our inventory reduction targets within the free cash flow. A little bit of absorption headwind went into the second half in our new guidance.

[Nicole DeBlase, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Okay, understood. Thanks, Michael. BCS, the incremental here have obviously been pretty good, high 20s in the first half. Are you guys expecting that high 20s to kind of continue in the second half within your guidance framework?

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Overall, we continue to see volume growth there, get 35% incremental, we're focused on price cost neutral within that side of the business as well.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

I mean, we are very pleased with BCS performance. The three businesses within BCS, the services business, the refrigeration business, and the rooftop business all continue to do very well. That's particularly just a result of great execution and good supporting market dynamic.

[Nicole DeBlase, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Got it.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

We are now at the cusp of HCS reaching similar performance as we turn around the corner on market dynamics.

[Nicole DeBlase, Analyst at Deutsche Bank]

Got it. Thanks a lot. I'll pass it on.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will move next to Nigel Coe with Wolfe. Please go ahead.

[Nigel Coe, Analyst at Wolfe]

Yeah, thanks. Good morning, everyone. Look, definitely, Baz mentioning BCS was fantastic, but understandably, there's a lot of focus here on HCS. I just want to make sure I understand the moving pieces on the guide change for HCS. The +1% now includes the acquisition of Heat Controller. Did I hear right? That's two points to HCS, so now we have about four points M&A coming in there, so the core is down three. Is that right?

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

That's correct. Within the guide, you picked up two points within M&A for the HCS revenue guidance, and then you lost five for volume. You went from four positive to one positive.

[Nigel Coe, Analyst at Wolfe]

Okay. There's a bit more M&A. Okay, great. Look, just taking a step back, you've had a very transparent strategy of high grading the customer base, firing lower margin customers, pushing price. Where are we in that process? Are we more or less complete in that process at this point? Is there still some ways to go? Maybe Mike, could you just maybe just clarify, is there any more IEEPA refunds in the second half guide? Thanks.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Sure. Let me take the first one. I would say we are nearly complete on the lower margin, and some of it was just driven by highly competitive RFP processes where we didn't want to go into negative margins. At this stage, some of that volume went away faster than we thought, and our offsetting growth in the AOR side is coming through just a little slower than we expected. I think that's what you're seeing in Q2. It's like the perfect storm of, we lost the RNC business a little sooner, and the share gain in AOR was a little slower than we expected. Net-net, we feel good about where we are to protect our margins and make smart business choices, so we don't fall victim of taping $100 bills to every unit that is being shipped out to some of these accounts.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

We don't want to do that again. We have done that in the past. We feel good about where we are, and I'll let Michael answer the IPA question.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

On the refunds, we recognized 100% of our expected refunds that we think we're entitled to within the quarter, and we've also received a lot of the cash flow already related to the gain on those refunds.

[Nigel Coe, Analyst at Wolfe]

Great. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will move next to Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

[Deane Dray, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Thank you. Good morning, everyone.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Good morning.

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Morning.

[Deane Dray, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Hey, sorry to circle back on the walk-away business. Just would be really interested in hearing, Alok, did you change your return requirements this quarter in any way? I would suspect not, but just maybe some color there, in terms of how much of the price competition surprised you.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

No, we didn't change our return requirements, Deane. I think our return requirements have been pretty steady over the past four to five years. Yes, I was surprised by the price competition in the residential new construction. At the end of the day, our focus is going to remain on our valued replacement customers, our valued new construction customers, where there's appreciation for the value that we provide versus commodity type business. I think we feel good about where we are, but we do understand there's short-term repercussions for that, and we will work through that and appropriately adjust our cost structure and our sales force accordingly.

[Deane Dray, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Good. That's helpful. It sounded like there was some good news on the emergency replacement business and the re-entry there. Have you gained share? Any update would be helpful.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Yes, we have definitely gained share. Within emergency replacement, our core contractor business, in commercial, our residential dealers, working through distribution, all three have gained. We are pleased with the progress there. The new factory is doing very well. The freed-up capacity in Stuttgart is also helping us strengthen and gain share in the key account business. We feel good about that strategy. The results there are, as you can see in the P&L and otherwise, just working out as we expected, maybe slightly better than we expected.

[Deane Dray, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Good to hear. Thank you.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will move next to Brett Linzey with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

[Brett Linzey, Analyst at Mizuho]

Hey, good morning, all. Just to follow up on the emergency replacement there. You called it out as a growth driver. Sounds like you're taking some share. I guess from a margin perspective, historically, I know ER was above segment margins. Where are we in that ramp process? Is it accretive to segment margins now, or do you still need more scale and uptake in that business? Any thoughts on the future profitability there?

[Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox]

Yeah, overall, it's attractive business. The margins are in line with some of our large national account business. We like that business, and we have opportunities to continue to expand those margins as we work on our distribution excellence within that channel. It's really good business and many years of growth opportunities still in front of us.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Yeah. I don't remember it being better than the segment average, but we've always said it's kind of in line with segment averages.

[Brett Linzey, Analyst at Mizuho]

Okay. No, that's helpful. Then on the tariff mitigation, sounds like you shifted some resources there, which did delay some of the material cost reduction initiatives, and led to that productivity cut. When do you think those deferred cost out initiatives resume? Are they volume dependent and that's really the driver of that? Or is it just timing and maybe there's an opportunity to recapture some of that $15 million here in the coming months and quarters?

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

It's mostly timing dependent. There's obviously a small element of volume, but it's mostly timing dependent as we move resources. I wish I could tell you that we can get all in 2027, and we will, if there are no more changes to the tariff and the tariff rules. The continuous evolution of tariff rules and tariff changes and Mexico and Canada and just that's taken up a lot of my engineering and other resources to mitigate that. Assuming a stable thing, we'll get it all next year.

[Brett Linzey, Analyst at Mizuho]

Okay. All makes sense. Thanks a lot. Best of luck.

[Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox]

Okay.

[Operator]

Thank you. Since there are no further questions, this will conclude Lennox's 2026 second quarter earnings call. You may disconnect your line.

Participants

Analysts

• Chelsey Pulcheon, VP of Investor Relations at Lennox
• Alok Maskara, CEO and Director at Lennox
• Michael Quenzer, EVP and CFO at Lennox
• Ryan Merkel, Analyst at William Blair
• Tommy Moll, Analyst at Stephens
• Noah Kaye, Analyst at Oppenheimer
• Jeffrey Hammond, Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets
• Jeffrey Sprague, Analyst at Vertical Research
• Stephen Volkmann, Analyst at Jefferies
• Chris Snyder, Analyst at Morgan Stanley
• Nicole DeBlase, Analyst at Deutsche Bank
• Nigel Coe, Analyst at Wolfe
• Deane Dray, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
• Brett Linzey, Analyst at Mizuho