A. O. Smith Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
July 30, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: North America organic sales grew 3% in Q2, led by a 21% increase in boiler sales and pricing benefits, while Leonard Valve added $16 million of revenue.
  • Positive Sentiment: Free cash flow rose 67% to $233 million in the first half, prompting A. O. Smith to increase its 2026 share-repurchase target by 50% to $300 million.
  • Negative Sentiment: The company lowered its 2026 outlook to 2%-3% sales growth and adjusted EPS of $3.70-$3.85, citing weaker-than-expected North American residential water-heater demand and low-double-digit industry volume declines.
  • Negative Sentiment: Q3 earnings are expected to be lower than both Q2 and Q4 as customer pre-buy activity pulls demand forward, while higher steel, tariff, transportation, and other input costs pressure margins.
  • Neutral Sentiment: China sales fell 28% in local currency, and management expects to announce the outcome of its nearly year-long strategic assessment by the next earnings call; all options, including a potential partner-led change or continued self-management, remain under consideration.
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Earnings Conference Call
A. O. Smith Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Good day, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Q2 2026 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press *11 on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To restore your question, please press *11 again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your speaker today. Helen Gurholt, please go ahead.

Helen Gurholt
Helen Gurholt
VP of Investor Relations, Financial Planning, and Analysis at A. O. Smith

Thank you, Lisa. Good morning, everyone, welcome to the A. O. Smith Q2 conference call. I am Helen Gurholt, Vice President, Investor Relations and Financial Planning and Analysis. Joining me today are Stephen Shafer, Chief Executive Officer, Chuck Lauber, Executive Vice President, Carrie Anderson, Chief Financial Officer. In order to provide improved transparency into the operating results of our business, we provided non-GAAP measures. Free cash flow is defined as cash from operations plus capital expenditures. North America segment organic growth excludes the impact of Leonard Valve. Adjusted earnings, adjusted earnings per share, adjusted segment earnings exclude the impact of restructuring and impairment expenses. Reconciliations from GAAP measures to non-GAAP measures are provided in the appendix at the end of this presentation and on our website.

Helen Gurholt
Helen Gurholt
VP of Investor Relations, Financial Planning, and Analysis at A. O. Smith

A friendly reminder that some of our comments and answers during this conference call will be forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include matters that we described in this morning's press release, among others. Also, as a courtesy to others in the question queue, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up per turn. If you have multiple questions, please rejoin the queue. We will be using slides as we move through today's call. You can access them on our website at investors.aosmith.com. I will now turn the call over to Stephen to begin our prepared remarks.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Thank you, Helen, good morning, everyone. Before we get into our results, I want to start by recognizing Chuck Lauber and thanking him for his many years of service as our CFO. Chuck has had a long and meaningful career with A. O. Smith, his leadership has had a significant impact on our company. On behalf of all of us, Chuck, thank you for your many contributions, we wish you all the best in retirement. At the same time, I am very pleased to welcome Carrie Anderson to A. O. Smith as our new Chief Financial Officer. Carrie brings extensive financial leadership experience across multiple industries, including complex global manufacturing organizations. She also brings a collaborative leadership style and a disciplined approach to execution.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Carrie has already become a valued partner to the team, and we look forward to her leadership in strengthening our execution rigor and advancing our strategic priorities. This is another planned and orderly leadership transition at A. O. Smith, and it reflects the strength of our broader leadership team. We have a highly experienced group of leaders with the right balance of fresh perspective and deep industry knowledge to continue executing our strategy and serving our customers well. Now, moving on to our Q2 2026 financial performance, please turn to slide 4. While the quarter reflected very different market conditions across our businesses, I am pleased with how the A. O. Smith team executed. We continued to gain traction in North America, delivered strong free cash flow performance, and took additional actions to create value for shareholders.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

At the company level, sales were approximately $1 billion, and adjusted earnings per share were $1.03. While our results were impacted by the continued weakness in China, our teams remain focused on operational execution and cost management across the business. One of the highlights of the quarter was the North America sales increase of 5% to $821 million, which includes Leonard Valve, our recent acquisition that expands our water management and digital control capabilities. Excluding Leonard Valve, organic sales grew 3%, supported by strong boiler growth, carryover pricing actions, and continued focus on serving our customers. Another highlight of the quarter was our cash flow performance. Free cash flow increased nearly 70% in the first half of the year, reflecting the strength and resilience of our operating model.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Supported by that performance, we increased our 2026 share repurchase target by 50% to $300 million, reinforcing our commitment to disciplined capital deployment and returning cash to shareholders. As expected, China sales decreased 28% in local currency, largely due to broader market conditions. While the China appliance market remains challenging, particularly in the premium segment, we continue to manage the business thoughtfully while completing our strategic assessment. We expect to share our conclusion on that assessment by our next quarterly earnings call, and remain focused on identifying the best path forward to support long-term value creation. With that overview, let's take a closer look at the performance of our North America businesses.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

North America water heater sales increased 2% in the quarter. Residential water heater industry demand remained pressured by softness in new construction as well as existing home sales, which can weigh on replacement demand. While the residential market remains competitive, we continue to make progress in our market share performance. In an environment where demand remains muted, our leading brands, broad channel presence, and strong customer relationships continue to differentiate A. O. Smith and reinforce our confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the business.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Our North America boiler business delivered a strong quarter, with sales increasing 21%, contributing to 12% growth in the first half of the year. Growth was driven by continued momentum in residential boilers and a return to growth in commercial boilers. We remain encouraged by the performance of this business and believe our investments in product innovation, customer service, and channel partnerships continue to position us well in an attractive market with significant long-term opportunities. North America water treatment sales decreased 2% as growth in our priority dealer channel was offset by softer demand in other channels.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

While consumers remain cautious in portions of the market, we continue to focus on the channels, products, and customer relationships where we see the greatest opportunities for growth. During the quarter, we advanced actions to optimize our footprint and streamline our brand portfolio, which we believe position the business to operate more efficiently and accelerate profitable growth over time. We expect annual savings of approximately $6 million-$8 million beginning in 2027. Leonard Valve contributed $16 million to sales in the Q2 of 2026, and we continue to target double-digit growth for the full year. I'll now turn the call over to Chuck, who will provide more specifics on our Q2 performance.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Thank you, Stephen, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin, I want to say how grateful I am for the opportunity to have served as CFO of A. O. Smith. It's been our privilege to work alongside so many talented colleagues and to be a part of a company with such a strong culture, trusted brands, and a long history of creating value. I'm proud of what we have accomplished together and confident in the company's future. It's been a pleasure representing A. O. Smith in my many interactions with investors and analysts over the years.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

I also want to welcome and congratulate Carrie and wish her great success in her new role. I look forward to working with her over the next couple of months during the transition. Let's now turn to slide 5. North America segment sales of $821 million increased 5% compared to last year. As shown on the left side of the slide, organic growth of 3% in the quarter contributed $26 million of additional sales, while Leonard Valve sales contributed another $16 million. The organic growth was driven primarily by 21% boiler sales growth, as well as carryover pricing benefits in our water heater business. These benefits were partially offset by lower residential water heater volumes as industry demand remained soft.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Our boiler performance this quarter was driven by strong commercial demand, including seasonal orders under early buy programs. In addition, the quarter benefited from customer pre-buy activity ahead of announced price increases on both water heater and boiler products, resulting in some demand pull forward into the Q2. North America adjusted segment earnings were $200 million, modestly above the prior year period. Adjusted segment margin was 24.4%, a decrease of 100 basis points compared to last year.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

The benefits of organic growth and the contribution from Leonard Valve were largely offset by higher steel and other input costs. Steel costs rose year-over-year approximately 20% in Q2, and combined with tariffs and other inflationary costs, largely offset pricing benefits. IEEPA refunds had a minimal impact in the quarter. Moving to slide six. Rest of the World segment sales of $195 million decreased 19% due to continued weak consumer demand in China driving lower volumes, which was partially offset by favorable foreign currency translation. Rest of the World Q2 segment earnings of $10 million and segment margin of 5.2% decreased significantly compared with the prior year period. The lower segment earnings and margin were primarily due to lower sales volumes in China, which were partially offset by continued cost management. Please turn to slide seven.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Cash flow performance remained a significant strength in the first half of this year. We generated free cash flow of $233 million in the first half of 2026, a 67% increase over 2025, primarily driven by working capital management, which more than offset lower earnings. We ended the quarter with $181 million in cash and a net debt position of $456 million. Our leverage ratio was 25.7%, as measured by total debt to total capital, reflecting the financing associated with the Leonard Valve acquisition completed earlier this year. Even after funding the acquisition and returning capital to shareholders, our balance sheet remains strong and provides substantial flexibility to support future growth investments and acquisition opportunities. Let's now turn to slide eight. Our capital allocation framework remains unchanged and continues to balance investment in long-term growth with meaningful returns to shareholders.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Our priorities remain clear: actively manage our portfolio, invest in innovation to drive organic growth, and advance operational excellence to improve productivity. Within portfolio management, we continue to evaluate M&A opportunities that fit our strategic direction and meet our financial criteria. Earlier this month, our board approved our next quarterly dividend of $0.36 per share. In addition, we repurchased approximately 2.6 million shares for a total of $162 million during the first half of the year. Given our cash flow performance and confidence in the business, we increased our 2026 share repurchase target by 50%, from $200 million to $300 million. Importantly, this increased repurchase commitment still preserves significant flexibility to invest in growth and pursue strategic opportunities as they arise. I'll now turn the call over to Carrie to share our 2026 earnings outlook.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Thank you, Chuck, and good morning, everyone. I'm excited to join A. O. Smith and appreciate the warm welcome from Stephen, Chuck, Helen, and the broader team. As I've settled into the role over these past several weeks, I've been impressed by the strength of the business, the quality of the team, and the discipline around capital allocation and financial management. I look forward to helping build on that foundation as we execute our strategic priorities and create long-term value for our shareholders. I'm very grateful for Chuck's partnership during this transition and wish him all the best in retirement. With that, let's turn to our 2026 outlook summarized on slide 9.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

As we enter the second half of the year and have greater visibility into our end markets and our expected full-year performance, based on our first half results and current outlook, we have narrowed our guidance range. Importantly, our overall view of the business has not materially changed since April. Our outlook for China, North America commercial water heaters, boilers, water treatment, India, and Leonard Valve remain largely unchanged from the assumptions we provided last quarter.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

The primary change in our outlook relates to the North America residential water heater market, where industry demand has remained softer than we anticipated earlier in the year, reflecting continued weakness in both new construction activity and existing home sales. As a result, we now expect full-year sales growth of approximately 2%-3% and adjusted EPS of $3.70-$3.85 per share, compared with our prior outlook of 2%-4% sales growth and adjusted EPS of $3.70-$4.00 per share. The upper end of our prior guidance assumes that residential water heater industry demand during the second half of the year would be similar to the first half.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Based on what we have seen through June and into July, we now believe results are more likely to skew towards the lower end of that prior range. Within U.S. residential water heaters, we are narrowing our industry outlook to down low double digits for the year, compared to our prior expectation of flat to down low double digits. While emergency replacement demand remains stable, we continue to closely monitor proactive replacement activity, which accounts for approximately 30% of total replacement demand and is more sensitive to consumer spending behavior. End market conditions tied to new housing activity have remained soft, primarily impacting the wholesale channel. Looking at our other major market assumptions, we continue to expect U.S. commercial water heater industry volumes to be approximately flat with last year.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

We are maintaining our North America boiler sales growth of 6%-8%, North America water treatment sales growth of 5%-6%, and approximately $70 million of sales from Leonard Valve. We also continue to expect our China sales to decline at a low double-digit rate in local currency. As we think about the phasing of the balance of the year, Q2 earnings benefited from early buy programs in our boiler business as well as customer pre-buy activity ahead of our announced water heater and boiler price increases, which accelerated a portion of expected Q3 demand into the Q2. Q2 benefited from a slightly lower effective tax rate than we expect for the full year.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

While our full-year outlook still assumes steel costs will be approximately 15% higher than 2025 levels, we expect steel inflation in the second half to be somewhat higher than the first half. Non-steel material inflation and tariffs are expected to remain a headwind as we move through the remainder of the year. Tariff policy remains dynamic, and while we continue to evaluate the recently announced changes, we currently expect the new tariffs to have a modestly higher cost impact than the tariffs they replace. While we continue to expect the overall impact to be manageable, the timing of these cost pressures, combined with the customer pre-buy activity and seasonal boiler early buy programs, is expected to create a less favorable earnings profile in the Q3.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Together with continued weakness in China, these factors are expected to result in Q3 EPS that is lower than both Q2 and Q4. The midpoint of our range assumes Q3 segment margins in both North America and rest of world are generally consistent with the margins reported in Q1. I'll now turn the call back over to Stephen for closing remarks.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Thanks, Carrie. Moving to slide 10, I'd like to close with the key messages from the quarter. First, we delivered solid Q2 results, with sales exceeding $1 billion, 3% North America organic growth, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.03. These results reflect the strength of our North America businesses, disciplined execution across the organization, and the contribution from Leonard Valve as we begin to build out our water management platform. Second, our boiler business continued to perform exceptionally well. Boiler sales increased 21% in the quarter, driving year-to-date growth of 12%. We continue to benefit from strong commercial demand and remain confident in our outlook of 6%-8% boiler growth for the full year. Third, while residential water heater industry demand remains softer than we anticipated, we are confident in the long-term strength of our North America water heater business.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

The replacement market continues to represent approximately 80%-85% of industry demand. Our market position remains strong, and we've continued to make progress stabilizing market share in a highly competitive environment. Fourth, our strategic assessment of the China business is nearing completion. While market conditions remain challenging, we are focused on determining the best path forward to support the long-term success of the business and create value for shareholders. Finally, our businesses continue to generate strong cash flow, which provides flexibility to invest in our businesses while returning capital to shareholders. This confidence is reflected in the 50% increase in our 2026 share repurchase target to $300 million. As Carrie discussed earlier, we have updated our full-year outlook to reflect continued softness in North America residential water heater industry demand.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Importantly, our outlook for our other major businesses and markets remains largely consistent with the assumptions we provided earlier this year. Overall, we remain confident in our strategy, our market positions, the resilience of our replacement-driven businesses, and our ability to create long-term value for shareholders. With that, we conclude our prepared remarks and open the call for your questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone. You'll hear the automated message advising your hand is raised. If you would like to remove yourself from the queue, press *11 again. We ask that you wait for your name and company to be announced before proceeding with your question. One moment while we compile the Q&A roster. The first question of the day will be coming from the line of Bryan Blair of Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Bryan Blair
Bryan Blair
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Thank you. Morning, everyone.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Morning.

Bryan Blair
Bryan Blair
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Chuck, thank you very much for all the help over the years. Carrie, I look forward to working with you.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Thank you. Likewise.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Glad to be here.

Bryan Blair
Bryan Blair
Analyst at Oppenheimer

I guess to start, you did revise the U.S. resi water heater industry volume outlook. Although down below single digits still entails stabilization going forward, and that certainly counters pretty weak industry data year-to-date and generally unchanged macro variables. I guess simple question, what gives your team confidence in that stabilization over the coming months?

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Yeah, Bryan, when we kind of look at the way the industry rolls out, just recall that in 2024 and in 2025, we really had also price increases in the first half of the year, pulling volume into the first half. Some of the comps that we're seeing, industry data kind of through May, are comping against a pretty strong front half of the year. The way we have the year laid out, the last couple years it's been in the 52%-53% in the front half, and this year we have it about 51% in the front half. We don't have quite as much pull forward in the overall outlook, and we have a little easier comps as we go into the back half of the year.

Bryan Blair
Bryan Blair
Analyst at Oppenheimer

Okay, understood. That makes sense. I was hoping you could offer some more detail on how your team's thinking about North American margins in Q3 and Q4. We obviously have your full year outlook, we can back into the second half overall. Just given all of the moving parts at hand, price cost certainly amongst those factors, that would be very helpful if you spoke to quarterly expectations.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Yeah, I'll take that call. Chuck, if there's something I missed, feel free to chime in here. I would say generally in the Q2, our price cost relationship was slightly positive. Overall, we're taking pricing actions in our water heating at 4%-7%. They're expected to begin to be realized midway through the Q3. We expect to see more of a contribution of that price as we move into the second half. At the same time, we're also, to go back to my prepared remarks, do see a ramp up in some of our costs that is expected to increase, particularly steel in the back half of the year. Overall, I would say in the back half of the year, we're going to be more neutral in that price cost relationship.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Specifically for the Q3, I mentioned that the North America margins will be similar to Q1, and that's more reflective of the fact that, as you think about the demand that we saw move into the Q2 compared to the Q3, that's going to have a bit of some volume pressure there, and the fact that we're going to have some of that price kind of build over the quarter as those new effective price increases come into effect. We won't have a full quarter impact of those new price increases in Q3, and we'll have the full benefit in Q4. Anything else, Chuck, to add?

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

No. Agree.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for the next question. Next question's coming from the line of Mike Halloran of Baird. Please go ahead.

Mike Halloran
Mike Halloran
Analyst at Baird

All right. Thank you. Let me echo Bryan's comments. Best of luck, Chuck. I enjoyed working with you for what was a very long period of time. Carrie, welcome. I look forward to working with you as well.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Thank you, Mike.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Mike, Chuck's a little sensitive to when we say very long period of time.

Mike Halloran
Mike Halloran
Analyst at Baird

Hey, look, I'm incriminating myself there too. It goes both ways, unfortunately. Can we talk a little bit about the residential landscape specifically? Obviously, the environment's weaker. I understand the back half guide, but maybe just talk a little bit about the market share comments and how you feel like you're stabilizing things on that side and any difference or trend line that you're seeing on the wholesale versus retail side of things.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Yeah. Maybe first off, regarding wholesale retail, we continue to see kind of retail overall in the industry gain a little bit of share. Some of that is because the dynamics in the industry, like new construction, impact wholesale a little bit more than retail, but also some of the big box retailer players are really getting organized around how to go after, in particular, kind of the small pros. There's that dynamic that's been playing out, I'd say, for years and maybe accelerated a bit in the last few quarters as there's been a lot more pressure, I think, on the wholesale side of the business. That's one factor that's out there. I've talked about in the past kind of market share specifically on the wholesale side.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

We're very pleased with sort of how we perform in retail with our retail partners. On the wholesale side, it can be a little bit lumpy as there is some channel movement and there's some actions that get taken either by us or competitors. We see that kind of ride up and down a little bit. What we look to really do is make sure that we have a stable share performance. With the end of last year, we kind of had a concerted effort to go back and win back a little bit of share that we felt like maybe we had lost in that wholesale channel.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

We have great relationships across the wholesale channel. We obviously know the players in that space very well, and we had some targeted actions to win back a little bit of share. We're happy with the progress we're making there and some of the stabilization that we see in our share performance.

Mike Halloran
Mike Halloran
Analyst at Baird

Thanks for that. Second question, just pricing. Maybe just talk a little bit about price acceptance in the North America channels, both on the boiler and then the commercial and residential water heater side, how that's being shuffled through. I know you answered a little bit for Bryan, but as you look at the next two to four quarters here, how does that price-cost relationship start tracking, and when do you feel like you're going to be in a really good spot on a net basis?

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Maybe I'll start with that one, and then Chuck can pick up the first part of your question. I would say it's too early to talk about future price increases at this point. The material cost environment inclusive of tariffs remains quite dynamic, and as a result, we're watching and managing this quite closely with our teams. Our goal is to always maintain a balance in that price-cost relationship as we also want to work to make sure that our customers are kept competitive here. At this point, I would say we're always going to continue to monitor to try to maintain that relationship.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

As far as acceptance of the price, it's pretty early days of the price increase, right? We expect that we're going to start seeing the positive impact of pricing, call it midway through the Q3, and that's both on water heaters and boilers. It was delayed. It was delayed a couple of months. We have a little bit of pressure in Q3 that we may not have seen had it been effective immediately, that we're going to always keep competitive in the marketplace, and we feel that it should act out as history would act out. We right now have it in our outlook.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for the next question. The next question is coming from the line of Susan Maklari of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open, Susan. Please go ahead. One moment for the next question. Our next question is coming from the line of Nathan Jones. Please go ahead, of Stifel.

Nathan Jones
Nathan Jones
Analyst at Stifel

Good morning, everyone. I'll congratulate Chuck again.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Good morning.

Nathan Jones
Nathan Jones
Analyst at Stifel

Carrie, welcome to the team. I guess first question, Chuck, you just mentioned that the price increases were delayed by a couple of months. Can you talk about the dynamics around that and why they were delayed and confidence in them getting out into the market now when they're supposed to?

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Yeah. It was roughly a month that it was pushed back, and it really was because we wanted to remain competitive with some of the other market participants that came out with pricing. Everybody's in the market with pricing. We expect it to go forward as planned.

Nathan Jones
Nathan Jones
Analyst at Stifel

Okay. I guess the second question is, you guys have had a fair amount of experience over the last several years with large price increases to cover inflation. Has the industry, and a lot of experience with the demand pull-forward dynamics that come along with that. Can you talk about how that's played out this time versus in previous occasions, how confident you are on, I guess, what you've estimated as pull forward into Q2 that plays out in the back half? I guess the risk around maybe the pull forward being a bit more, the market being a bit weaker than you think, and the risk to the second half. Just any color on your confidence there. Thanks.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Nathan, I would say it's a little bit of science and a little bit of art relative to how you manage that. The important thing is we work really closely with our customers as we think about stepping in and stepping through a price change. A couple of years ago, we saw a really big pull forward. In 2024 and 2025, we look to manage that and balance that a little bit with our customers to help on the production efficiencies. Every time we go through this, we try to find the right balance of serving what our customers need, responding to the marketplace, but also then optimizing for what makes sense in terms of our own production efficiencies. We continue to work with our customers, and I'd say it's not a formula every year is exactly the same.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

There's always different dynamics to navigate through and different priorities from our customers that we work through with them. I'd say, this year, I think we continue to work closely, make sure we serve the demand, serve our customers well, but also work with our customers when it made sense in terms of getting the efficiencies on that back end. I think it's a little bit more of a muted pull forward this year, just by some of the nature of the dynamics that were out there.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Just as a reference point, you mentioned prior price increases. This price increase of 4-7 is probably on the lower end of what we've experienced over the last couple of years for price increase amounts. To Stephen's point, we expect and feel like it's had a little bit less of an impact than maybe some of the other previous price increases.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from the line of Scott Graham of Seaport Research Partners. Please go ahead.

Scott Graham
Scott Graham
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

Hey, good morning. Chuck, congratulations on a great run, thank you for being so easy to work with. Carrie, welcome aboard. I have a sort of a similar question to Nathan. Is there any way to size the dollars on the pre-buy, what was pulled into the Q2 from the Q3? Secondarily, could you talk about some of the competitive and maybe more promotional activity you're seeing in the wholesale channel? Because we kind of know what they're all about and not a reduction in foot traffic and all of this. Within that, maybe discuss, you have another new competitor, and I know it's not a big overlap with you, but the dynamics of what they're doing in that channel. Thanks.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

I'll take the first part on question on the sizing of pre-buy. We generally don't size that, but I think within my prepared remarks, we did want to make sure that we gave you a little bit more commentary around the phasing of the year because there was some pull-forward demand from the Q3 into the Q2. I think my comments around the shape of the second half, with specifically those comments on the Q3, can help you kind of think through that in terms of thinking through the dynamics in the Q3, inclusive of some higher steel costs that we expect in the second half of the year, tariff dynamics, as well as the pricing that we expect to have full attraction in the back half of the quarter.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

I would just supplement that with, if you look at how we have the industry laid out for the year, this year, we're saying 51% in the first half, 49% in the back half. Prior two years were closer to 52%-53% in the front half. We do expect to have less of an impact than what we've seen in other price increase pull forwards.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Your question around wholesale dynamics, we've talked about some of the things that are putting pressure on the wholesale market. There's a couple players that I think look to serve that market, and it's a competitive environment, and even more so when you don't have meaningful growth that helps all the players sort of move forward. Yeah, it's a competitive space. I do think, though, I go back to as it relates to new entrants and people trying to get into that space, it's difficult to do because you really have to have full conviction. I think to serve the wholesale market well, you need to have the full breadth of the product portfolio, be able to serve both the replacement market as well as the new construction demand. You've got to be able to support it with obviously high-quality products at scale.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

You got to be able to have the relationships and the brands to reach the contractors and that they know you're going to stand behind the products, and it's the products that they're comfortable with and used to. You also have to have products that have the technology moving forward. I think from that standpoint, that's how we serve that market with conviction, and I think it has served us well, and it especially served us well as new people try to get into that space. It's difficult to do without that full level of conviction and the full business model.

Scott Graham
Scott Graham
Analyst at Seaport Research Partners

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for the next question. Next question is coming from the line of Tomo Sano of JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Brendon Ahn
Brendon Ahn
Analyst at JPMorgan

Hi, this is Brendon Ahn for Tomo. If I could just start on your product portfolio. As we think about the ongoing evolution of your product portfolio, which product categories or technologies are your top priorities for incremental R&D investment? Specifically, what kind of milestones should we watch for progress there?

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Well, as we've been talking about, certainly here in North America, in the water heater and the boiler space, we've been making big investments to expand our portfolio in the tankless segment as well as with heat pump technology. We believe those technologies have a relevant position in the future for how the water heating and the boiler space will evolve. We've been making, over many years now, investments there to kind of complement the strength of our more traditional tank portfolio. We're really happy with the progress we've made in terms of the performance, the technical steps forward, and how we've rolled those out into the marketplace and how they've been accepted in the marketplace. I think those are areas that, I think on the tankless side, we'll see how it has to play out with new construction.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

On the heat pump side, obviously still very much connected to regulatory and rebate actions. We do believe that those are technologies relevant for our future. Water treatment is a space where I think there's more innovation happening and lots of awareness happening around water treatment in North America. How do you serve that awareness with the right types of technologies in the marketplace? That's an area that we've got, I'd say, an increased focus on innovation as we go forward because we think it's a market space that is ripe for more innovative products. I'd say if you think about outside North America, in our markets in China and India, those are real, I'd say, innovation juggernauts.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

The pace of change and innovation in those markets requires us to move at an incredibly high pace, and they evolve, and consumer tastes evolve pretty quickly there. That's a little bit really embedded in our DNA of how we bring new products to those consumers.

Brendon Ahn
Brendon Ahn
Analyst at JPMorgan

Great. Thank you. Then if I can get one more here. You've highlighted deploying AI tools across order management, warranty processing, technical service. Just sort of thinking how you are thinking about the scale and timeline of productivity benefits from those initiatives. Is this primarily a cost story, a customer experience story, both? How does that kind of fit within the broader margin improvement framework?

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

I think like a lot of companies now where there is AI kind of experiences and experimentation happening all across the company. Some of it is just more in general productivity gains and how all employees everywhere kind of bring it into their lives and bring it into their professional careers. There is more targeted set kind of AI use cases that we are developing, and you mentioned a few of them. I think we see the reality is having a meaningful impact on both things like customer experience and our productivity. It takes time a little bit to kind of build up first of all, get the data structured and oriented and build up the models to really drive those programs.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

We do feel like it is still early to kind of really size that for folks, but we are learning really quickly, right? It is just as you think about how quickly AI is learning, and I think our use cases of AI is evolving very quickly. It is one of those things that I think you expect we will all be talking about more and more as we go forward and as we step into the next few quarters and years about how we are putting to work those types of models. I do see it playing out very much in serving our customers better and doing it in much more efficient and more productive ways.

Operator

Thank you. If you would like to ask a question, please press *11 on your telephone. One moment for the next question. Next question is coming from the line of Jeff Hammond of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Your line is open.

Mitch Moran
Mitch Moran
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Hey, everyone. This is Mitch Moran for Jeff. Good morning.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Good morning.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Good morning.

Mitch Moran
Mitch Moran
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Just on the China decision, sounds like you're getting close and look forward to the update next quarter. If you look at the spectrum of potential outcomes, any chance you could give us any color on which direction you're leaning?

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Yeah, all outcomes are still on the table, Mitch. We've been at this process for almost a year. We've had a lot of great conversations with a lot of different potential parties. We've learned a lot about our business and the potential levers we can pull. I think we're actually getting pretty good clarity of what we think we need to do to kind of position the business for success going forward. Whether that's done in a structure where somebody else leads those changes and pulls those levers, or whether we do it in partnership or whether we do it ourselves, I think all those options at this point are still on the table, and I think that's part of the clarity we'll look to provide by our next earnings call is exactly how we're going to move forward there.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

That clarity, I know we owe it to you and our investors, but also our customers and our employees. Obviously, as we've gone through this assessment, there's a lot of uncertainty there, we recognize the need to kind of move forward and step forward and drive some of the changes that we think are needed for the business. Like I said, how we do that or how somebody else moves forward with that is what we're trying to finalize.

Mitch Moran
Mitch Moran
Analyst at KeyBanc Capital Markets

Thank you. Appreciate the color there. Just a cleanup question. I think you mentioned the IEEPA refunds were minimal in the quarter. Could you just quantify that? Do you anticipate any more in the second half?

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Yeah, I'll take that question. I think just as a reminder, we are primarily a domestic manufacturer. A significant portion of our tariff exposure is indirect, with those tariff costs passed through to us via supplier price increases. As Chuck mentioned, in Q2, we did receive some refunds related to the IEEPA tariffs in the cases where A. O. Smith was the importer of record. However, the amount in this quarter was not material. I would say about $0.01. Recognize that the tariff environment remains fairly fluid, including the recently announced Section 301 tariff. If I step back a bit more broadly, overall tariffs, including tariff refunds, we aren't expecting to have a material impact on earnings or margins for the full year. We just continue to monitor that evolving environment.

Operator

One moment for the next question. Our next question's coming from the line of David MacGregor of Longbow Research. Please go ahead.

Joe Nolan
Joe Nolan
Analyst at Longbow Research

Hey, good morning. This is Joe Nolan on for David.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Hi, Joe. Good morning.

Joe Nolan
Joe Nolan
Analyst at Longbow Research

Good morning. I just wanted to follow up on the tariff comments right there. I think it was mentioned in the prepared remarks that you'd see a slightly higher impact from tariffs. Could you just quantify the impact to the second half from higher tariffs?

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

We didn't quantify that. I think, again, when you think about the Section 301 tariffs replacing the Section 232 tariffs, as you think about how that was described, it'd be a slightly higher headwind there. I think our intent is to try to continue to manage those costs, like we're managing all of our different material cost inflation headwinds in the back half of the year. At this point, we didn't quantify that other than to say we're working through those changes and obviously believe that there'll be a modest cost increase. At this point, our plan is to continue to mitigate and manage best we can.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

I would say we're getting pretty good at navigating tariff uncertainty, reactions, or understand our supply base. There's a lot of levers we can pull to sort of navigate through that. I'd also say anything you can count on going forward on tariffs, right? I think it's just going to be a continued evolving landscape. I think all companies sort of have to get really good at just responding to those changes. I think we're getting better at that.

Joe Nolan
Joe Nolan
Analyst at Longbow Research

Got it. That's helpful. I just wanted to circle back on pricing. I was just wondering, in a softer demand environment, are you seeing higher price elasticity on the recent price increases relative to increases over recent years?

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

I would say no. In a softer environment, consumers are not really focused on the end price when they put in a water heater. From a price elasticity, we're not seeing the consumer push back. When you do have a situation, though, when you have volumes down, Stephen mentioned earlier some of the challenges in the wholesale channel. The wholesale channel, as a reminder, is a large part of where housing gets pulled through, is the housing side. Certainly, it's a competitive environment, but we wouldn't say price elasticity plays out directly.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for the next question. Next question's coming from the line of Ryan Connors of Northcoast Research. Please go ahead.

Ryan Connors
Ryan Connors
Analyst at Northcoast Research

Good morning. Thanks, and congrats, Chuck, and welcome, Carrie.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Thank you.

Ryan Connors
Ryan Connors
Analyst at Northcoast Research

You've covered a lot of ground here. I appreciate you fitting me in. Talk about dating ourselves. One thing, I've been around the story long enough to remember that next week is the 10-year anniversary of closing on Aquasana, which was really the platform creation of the water treatment business in North America. Obviously, I don't think it's quite reached the critical scale we would've thought at this point. I guess as you go through the restructuring, can you just update us on your strategic thinking there? Are we at a point where that's going to start moving the needle in the next few years? At some point, do you have to make a strategic decision that it's just not reaching that scale, and what's holding it back from doing that?

Ryan Connors
Ryan Connors
Analyst at Northcoast Research

Just curious if you could step back from the tactical restructuring talk and just address that business from a strategic context relative to where expectations would have been than it was today.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Yeah. I'd say when we decided 10 years ago to step into the water treatment space, a lot of work was done to understand the landscape, understand the mega trends, try to understand where the world was going around interest and understanding of water cleanliness, how regulatory frameworks were going to impact that. We viewed it as an attractive space, and we knew we needed to get inorganically into it so that we could get a collection of people and businesses that really understood the space well. As you mentioned, Aquasana was kind of the initial entree into this, and we bought a number of businesses since then, really high-quality assets that have served that water treatment space well for a number of years.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

As we've gone through that journey and as we've put these businesses together, we ourselves have learned a lot about the market space and learned about kind of what the different elements of the market, the different channels, the different products. I think what you see now is putting that learning to work, right? What did we learn along the way, what does it mean for us in terms of how A. O. Smith can participate and create value going forward? Sure, we have every aspiration to make the business more scaled, more profitable, and a bigger contributor to our portfolio. Some of the actions we're taking now are related to trying to position the business to do that going forward.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Obviously, as you refine and you focus and you prioritize, it can take a step back in terms of just sort of the growth profile as you do that. We've got to focus on really fine-tuning where we want to compete and win. That will help us, I think, drive more profitable growth going forward. We've been taking some of those actions. I think we still see it as a really attractive space. I think now we see it as a really attractive space with, I think, even greater clarity, having been a participant in it for the last decade, about where it is we can go and where we think our business model can create value.

Ryan Connors
Ryan Connors
Analyst at Northcoast Research

Got it. That's a very helpful update. I appreciate that. Secondly, you talked a lot about the shifts in the wholesale channel. The one thing in particular we hear a lot about is some of your channel partners talk about this dual trade evolution where HVAC and plumbing being melded into one. Can you talk about how that impacts A. O. Smith? Is that an opportunity? Is that a risk? How you view that, and whether that's part of the shift that you talk about in wholesale.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

When I talk about shift in wholesale, it's a little bit more, I'd say, kind of near term dynamics related to kind of housing starts and how they're serving the pros, and how the retail side of the channel is serving the pros. That's a little bit more of kind of what we're seeing right here and now. I think that the topic you're talking about is how are the trades coming together with the HVAC world? What does that mean for the wholesalers who serve those spaces? What does that mean for the OEM manufacturers? I think that's a longer-term trend, I'd say it's one we follow closely, we have a lot of conversations across our industry and the HVAC industry about those changes and what does it mean. Right now at the end of the day, you have plumbers and you have HVAC technicians.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

They're very different people. There's different skill sets. The replacement cycles are different. That converging isn't necessarily driving big impact for how people want to interact with their water heater OEMs. Now, over time, I think it does create opportunities. It's one thing we need to watch carefully is does consumers and do trades folks shift the way they think and operate? It's one of those ones that because we're an industry leader and we're a thought leader across the industry, we're very much actively involved in understanding how those dynamics are changing. We view it as a bit of a longer term.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question is coming from the line of Susan Maklari of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Susan Maklari
Susan Maklari
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. I'm sorry I missed you earlier. Thanks for taking the question.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Good morning.

Susan Maklari
Susan Maklari
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

I want to start on the boiler outlook, which seems to imply that you expect a meaningful step down in the second half despite the pricing that you're getting there. I realize that there was some pull forward in that, but could you talk about the broader outlook there and your performance relative to that?

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Yeah, we're really pleased with our boiler performance in the first half of the year. If you recall, the Q1 was a little weaker on the commercial side, but we've built momentum and overall year to date being up 12% is a pretty healthy position. We haven't changed our outlook for the full year, 6%-8%. We are watching. If you recall a couple of years ago, there was more channel inventory built up on a price increase than perhaps what we've seen before. At our prepared remarks, we do have pre-buy programs that occur in the Q2 and somewhat fall into the Q3, but largely in the Q2. There will be some softness in the Q3 as a result of some of those pre-buy and price increase pull forwards that happen in Q2.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Overall, though, commercial order and quoting remains healthy. We're very pleased with how we're performing in the market on the residential side of the boiler business.

Susan Maklari
Susan Maklari
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. That's helpful. Then you also mentioned that you're seeing inflation in areas outside of steel. Can you talk about that headwind, quantify it for us a bit, what's driving that, and your ability to offset that pressure?

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

When you look at our cost, steel is the largest, we really see Q4 steel taking a meaningful increase in our cost base. The other factors that are out there are kind of whale-related, I would call them. If you think about transportation, we've seen a meaningful amount of increase in our transportation costs due to diesel surcharges, just demand in transportation being a little more costly than what it has been in the past. Also oil-based products. We have quite a bit of foam that we put in our product and other plastics that are under pressure for some of the oil-based costs that we see hitting us, particularly driving up costs in the back half of the year. Second part of the question was?

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Ability to offset.

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

Offset, I think Carrie covered that pretty well. We have pricing in the marketplace in Q3, we will see some pressures on margins as we go through the back half of the year because the costs, particularly in the Q4, are ramping up pretty quick.

Carrie Anderson
Carrie Anderson
CFO at A. O. Smith

Overall, I think my comments to one of the questions was the price cost relationship fairly neutral in second half. We'll continue to find ways to mitigate that, but I think there is some nuance in the phasing to pick up in my prepared remarks that should help you kind of shape that back half of the year.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for the next question. Our next question is coming from the line of Amit Mehrotra of UBS. Please go ahead.

Pratap Singh
Pratap Singh
Analyst at UBS

Hey, good morning. This is Pratap on for Amit Mehrotra.

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

Morning.

Pratap Singh
Pratap Singh
Analyst at UBS

Hey. My first question is looking at the North America, I think you mentioned Q3 margin is similar to the Q1, and it seems second half could be similar to the first half as well. When we take a look at the last three years, margins have been down in the second half compared to the first half. Can you walk us through some key drivers presenting this and what makes it different from prior years?

Chuck Lauber
Chuck Lauber
EVP at A. O. Smith

It's a little different. Each of the last few years have been somewhat unique. We've had somewhat of a volatile environment as far as pricing and timing of pricing. Some of the reasons last year our volume was a little bit more under pressure, I mentioned earlier about at least the residential water heater industry being 51% in the front half, 49% in the back half. Prior years were a little bit more skewed towards the front half because of pricing. That helps a bit even that out. I think volume is a big part of that.

Pratap Singh
Pratap Singh
Analyst at UBS

Great. That's very helpful. Thank you. Just a follow-up on the commercial water heater market that is outlook is still flattish for the year, can you give details on how it has been trending in the first half, are there any end markets doing better or worse? Additionally, what would need to improve for growth to re-accelerate in this business, other than the regulatory changes which got pushed forward?

Stephen Shafer
Stephen Shafer
CEO at A. O. Smith

The end markets on the commercial water heating side remain stable. We talked about it a bit on our last call is the 2026 commercial DOE efficiency change. We adjusted in our Q1 our outlook on commercial because that was pushed out a year, or the enforcement of that regulation was pushed out to 2027. We probably saw a little bit more strength on commercial in the early part of the year before that announcement came out. Then since then, a little softness on commercial as there's probably some pre-buy. I think as we exit the Q2, we're probably in a pretty neutral position for that change.

Pratap Singh
Pratap Singh
Analyst at UBS

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. That concludes today's Q&A session. I would like to turn the call back over to Helen for closing remarks. Please go ahead.

Helen Gurholt
Helen Gurholt
VP of Investor Relations, Financial Planning, and Analysis at A. O. Smith

Thank you everyone for joining us today. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the quarters to come. In addition, please mark your calendars to join our presentations at two conferences this quarter, Seaport on August 18th and D.A. Davidson on September 24th. Thank you and enjoy the rest of your day.

Operator

This does conclude today's program. Thank you so much for joining. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Helen Gurholt
      Helen Gurholt
      VP of Investor Relations, Financial Planning, and Analysis
    • Stephen Shafer
      Stephen Shafer
      CEO
    • Chuck Lauber
      Chuck Lauber
      EVP
    • Carrie Anderson
      Carrie Anderson
      CFO
Analysts
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