Stellantis Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
July 30, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Stellantis reported significant year-over-year improvement in Q2: net revenue rose 13% to €43.5 billion, adjusted operating income increased €560 million to €773 million, and industrial free cash flow reached positive €1 billion. Management reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and expectation for positive industrial free cash flow in 2027.
  • North America continued to recover, with sales up 6% and market share up 40 basis points, while regional AOI improved by €724 million to €284 million. Ram, Chrysler Pacifica and Jeep Grand Wagoneer contributed to growth, and management expects further benefits from new products and improved pricing.
  • The company reported strong progress on its Value Creation Program, with manufacturing efficiency improving substantially and purchasing, logistics and warranty costs declining. Stellantis expects 40% of identified initiatives to be implemented by year-end, contributing to €2.4 billion of AOI benefits in 2027 and a €6 billion annual run-rate reduction by 2028.
  • Product launches and partnerships are supporting growth: European BEV sales increased 20% year over year, Leapmotor sales in Europe increased sixfold, and new products such as the Ram 1500 TRX SRT, Jeep Recon BEV and Grand Wagoneer REV are expected to improve volume and mix.
  • Profitability remains under pressure from European pricing, raw-material inflation, tariffs and foreign-exchange headwinds, while North American margins have not yet shown strong operating leverage despite higher shipments. Inventory rose 20% year over year, and second-half cash flow will face summer shutdowns, higher investment spending and approximately €1 billion of additional raw-material and tariff-related headwinds.
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Earnings Conference Call
Stellantis Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Hello, welcome to the Stellantis Q2 2026 financial results call. You will have the opportunity to ask questions at the end of the call by typing pound key five on your telephone keypad. Please do not exceed one question per person, and if necessary, an additional one. I now give the floor to Mr. Charles Christman, Head of Investor Relations, to begin today's conference. Sir, the floor is yours.

Charles Christman
Charles Christman
Head of Investor Relations at Stellantis

Thank you. Hello, everyone, thank you for joining us today as we review the Stellantis Q2 2026 results. Earlier today, the presentation material for this call, along with the related press release, were posted under the investor section of the Stellantis group website. Today, our call is hosted by Antonio Filosa, Chief Executive Officer, and João Laranjo, Chief Financial Officer. After their prepared remarks, Antonio and João will be available to answer questions from the analysts. Before we begin, I want to point out that any forward-looking statements we might make during today's call are subject to the risks and uncertainties mentioned in the safe harbor statement included on page two of today's presentation. As customary, the call will be governed by that language. I will hand the call over to Antonio Filosa, Chief Executive Officer of Stellantis.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Thank you, Charlie. Thank you all very much for joining us today as we discuss our quarter two results. Our second quarter execution and financial performance reflect the meaningful progress that the team and I have been focused on delivering over the last 12 months. All key financial metrics are significantly improved year-over-year. Net revenues are up 13%, AOI margin is up 120 basis points. Industrial free cash flow is positive €1 billion, up €1 billion compared to last year. This year-over-year improvement gives us confidence in our full year 2026 financial guidance, which we are reaffirming again today, including our expectation that we will have positive industrial free cash flow in 2027.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

We set out our FaSTLAne 2030 strategy. Its financial targets at our May 21st Investor Day, and these quarter two results demonstrate that we are very much on track in our journey towards those targets. In quarter two, we made strong and significant progress on industrial execution. Through the good work of our operating teams, we have stabilized production and are running our plants much more efficiently. Year-over-year, overall production efficiency was improved 870 basis points in North America and 170 basis points in Europe. We also kept improving quality, with three months in service quality improving 38% in North America and 24% in Europe. We are making encouraging daily progress in the implementation of our Value Creation Program, VCP. As we shared with you at Investor Day, partnerships are a key pillar of our FaSTLAne 2030 plan.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

The announcements we made give you a strong sense on how attractive Stellantis is as a strategic partner, both to other OEMs and to leading names in the tech space. We are also making good progress with the execution of our large-scale new product plan. One of the key strategies in our FaSTLAne 2030 plan is to invest in our brands, invest in our products, and expand market coverage. In line with this plan, we are excited to have introduced the all new Ram 1500 TRX SRT, the DS 7, and the Fiat Grande Panda ICE in H1. Alongside the six refreshed vehicles, including Opel Astra, Chrysler Pacifica, and Peugeot 408, which is gaining strong momentum in Turkey. The Ram Dakota, introduced in Brazil in early 2026, is also delivering strong sales performance in the region's largest profit pool.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

We look forward to the nine remaining new and refreshed vehicles still to come this year, and we are laser focused on executing every one of these launches on time, with the right cost, and with the right quality. Now let me touch on some Q2 highlights from a regional perspective. In North America, we keep making significant progress and improving performance, powered by our great brands, our great products, and our great people. Sales in quarter two were up 6% year-over-year for a fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year gains. Ram was up 12% year-over-year. Chrysler was up 54% with the launch of the new Pacifica. Jeep Grand Wagoneer also posted significant gains. Overall, market share was up 40 basis points in North America, including 50 basis points in the U.S.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Canada market share was also slightly up, and Mexico with its strongest second quarter on record. Let me share a few highlights on Ram. The Ram 1500 was a key driver of both volume growth and profitability in the quarter, with strong demand for the reintroduction of the legendary HEMI V8 engine. Building on that momentum, we are now shipping the highly profitable Ram 1500 TRX SRT to customers just six months after its unveiling. This is the first off-road product from our SRT performance division, which we relaunched only one year ago. This product follows the Dodge Durango SRT, launched in December 2025, and the SRT muscle truck, the Ram Rumble Bee, arrives later this year, right on plan.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

As we presented during Investor Day, SRT brings unique capabilities and a powerful halo effect across all our lineup, while delivering margins from two to three times higher than comparable non-SRT variants. Still on the product side, we have the upcoming Jeep Recon BEV and the Jeep Grand Wagoneer REV launch coming this year. Now a few words also on our U.S. dealer inventory. The increase seen in June was the result of a proactive decision to support new product launches and powertrain offerings such as the Ram HEMIs, for instance, ahead of the sale that we expect to achieve in the coming months. It was also driven by a temporary buildup in advance of our planned summer production shutdowns. Based on preliminary sales rates in July, we expect that in July you will see inventory already reduced from June levels. Turning to Europe.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Growth in Europe was driven by strong demand for Smart Car platform nameplates such as Citroën C3 and C3 Aircross, Opel Frontera, Fiat Grande Panda, resulting in a 3% year-over-year increase in Stellantis brand sales in quarter two. Including Leapmotor, sales were up 7% year-over-year, supported by the success of the T03 and the B10. This growth also reflects the acceleration we are seeing in the European passenger car BEV markets. Where Stellantis BEV sales increased by 20% year-over-year and by 61% year-over-year when including Leapmotor. In light commercial vehicles, our Pro One division maintains the number one position in the EU30 with over 28% market share. The ongoing product offensive in Europe will further strengthen our growth drivers. First, through the expansion of the Smart Car portfolio with the upcoming Fiat Grizzly and Fiat Fastback.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

We will also have broader coverage of the C-SUV segment with the new Jeep Compass 4xe, as well as the recently launched DS 7 and the upcoming Lancia Gamma. Leapmotor represents another important growth lever and keeps gaining commercial momentum. Quarter 2 2026 sales increased sixfold year-over-year, making Leapmotor the fifth largest Chinese automotive brand in the region. Turning to South America. We maintained our clear overall leadership position in the region. We are number one in the region's two major markets, with over 26% market share in both Brazil and Argentina. We also further strengthened our leadership in pick-up trucks in Brazil, home of the region's largest profit pool, with Ram sales increasing by 10% year-over-year. Moving now to Middle East and Africa. We delivered resilient results in a declining market, with market share increasing 20 basis points despite an 8% decline in total industry volumes.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

The region achieved the number one position in light commercial vehicles and maintained its number two position overall. Lastly, in APAC, June deliveries reached a six-month high, and we have localized a Leapmotor-branded vehicle assembly in Malaysia for C10 with the B10 launch on track for the third quarter. We also announced the partnership with Dongfeng to develop and manufacture Peugeot and Jeep models in China. In summary, we are continuing the positive trend of quarter one with significant year-over-year improvements in all financial metrics. Our strong, disciplined execution keeps driving significant improvements both in quality and industrial efficiency. Let me now hand you to João to walk you through the numbers. João?

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Thank you, Antonio. Good afternoon and good morning, everyone. Q2 was another quarter of year-over-year improvement in line with our full year guidance for 2026. Let me start with the key financial figures. Consolidated shipments were 1.6 million units, up 10% year-over-year, with growth driven by North America and Europe. Net revenues were EUR 43.5 billion, up more than EUR 5 billion or 13% compared to Q2 of last year. This improvement was driven mainly by the higher volume in North America, which was up 122,000 units year-over-year. Adjusted operating income was EUR 773 million in Q2, improving by EUR 560 million compared to Q2 of last year. AOI margin was 1.8%, representing a 120 basis point improvement year-over-year. The key drivers of the year-over-year AOI improvement were: volume mix had a positive impact of EUR 376 million, reflecting higher shipments in North America and Europe.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Mix was unfavorable, mainly due to BEV penetration in Europe, partially offsetting the volume improvement. Net pricing was negative, EUR 456 million, mostly driven by pricing pressure in Europe. Industrial costs improved by more than EUR 1.9 billion. This was driven by three main factors. First, we continue to improve our operational execution. Manufacturing efficiencies and purchasing savings, including those related to VCP, more than offset increased raw material and tariff headwinds. Second, we had the non-repeat of prior year warranty costs from recall campaigns in Europe.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Finally, the reduction of regulatory expenses in North America. SG&A costs increased by EUR 317 million, largely reflecting higher market expenses to support volume growth. Lastly, foreign exchange and other had a negative impact of EUR 861 million, driven mainly by the Turkish lira devaluation, the non-repeat of indirect tax credit in Brazil, and the impact of lower residual value in the used vehicle business.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Moving to industrial free cash flow. Industrial free cash flow was positive, EUR 1 billion in Q2, an improvement of EUR 1 billion year-over-year. The improvement was driven by three factors. First, higher AOI. Second, positive seasonal working capital dynamics associated with higher Q2 volumes. Third, a lower run rate of CapEx and R&D spending during the quarter. The time of these investments remains fully aligned with our FastLane product plan and is reflected in our full year's guidance. We continue to expect full-year CapEx and R&D spending to be 6.5%-7% of net revenues. These benefits were partially offset by provisions, including approximately EUR 300 million of cash outflows related to H2 2025 charges. Now looking at inventory. Total inventory increased 20% year-over-year to 1.4 million units.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

The increase primarily reflects the launch of new and refreshed vehicles and powertrain offerings, and is consistent with our expectations for sales growth. As Antonio noted, dealer inventory also includes a temporary buildup ahead of the customary summer production shutdowns. As a result, we expect July inventory levels to be meaningfully lower than those recorded in June. Turning to our regional performance. North America delivered AOI of EUR 284 million, with an AOI margin of 1.6%, representing a year-over-year improvement of EUR 724 million. This is mostly driven by higher volume, including the Ram 1500, Jeep Grand Wagoneer, Wrangler ICE, and the Chrysler Pacifica. Shipments were up 38%, driven, as we have already noted, by the launch cadence of our new products and build ahead in advance of the pre-planned summer shutdown. It was also driven by year-over-year improvement in industrial costs and the reduction of regulatory expenses.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

In Europe, AOI was negative, EUR 94 million, an improvement of EUR 265 million year-over-year. The region continues to experience pricing pressure, which partially offset the positive impacts of improved manufacturing efficiency and purchasing costs, and the non-repeat of EUR 474 million of recall campaign costs in 2025. In South America, we delivered AOI of EUR 402 million. Volume was down slightly year-over-year, with a decline in Argentina more than offsetting gains in Brazil. The performance of the region remains resilient despite a challenging market and increasing competition. The AOI was in line with prior year, excluding the non-repeat of EUR 334 million of indirect tax credits in Brazil. In Middle East and Africa, we grew market share and delivered an AOI of EUR 329 million. These strong results were achieved despite the ongoing regional conflict, which resulted in an 8% decline in total industry volumes.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

In Asia Pacific, AOI was up 35% to EUR 27 million, with industrial cost improvements more than offsetting foreign exchange headwinds. Looking ahead to the rest of the year. As previously stated, we are reaffirming our 2026 guidance, as well as our expectation of achieving positive industrial free cash flow in 2027. Before concluding, I would like to share a few observations regarding the remainder of the year. Our guidance assumes net tariff expenses of EUR 1 billion-EUR 1.2 billion, including the impact of the IEEPA credit recognized in Q1. This represents a modest improvement from the EUR 1.3 billion previously communicated. Our industrial free cash flow guidance also reflects approximately EUR 2 billion of payments related to H2 2025 charges, of which EUR 0.9 billion was paid during the first half of 2026.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

CapEx and R&D spending are expected to be 6.5%-7% of net revenues in 2026, consistent with the approximately 7% outlined in the FastLane plan. In the second half, we expect financial performance to be weighted toward Q4. Q3 will be impacted by the summer shutdown and continued raw material inflation, while Q4 is expected to benefit from higher volume and a stronger ramp-up of VCP initiatives. I will now turn it back to Antonio to wrap up before the Q&A.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Thank you, João. Before we move to the Q&A, I would like to step back and reflect on the big picture. I hope all of you either had the opportunity to attend our Investor Day or to view the presentations online. You will see that our FastLane 2030 strategy addresses, in a structured way, the core issues that we face as a company and capitalizes on our biggest opportunities. We are fully focused on executing our plan, which will deliver significant benefits as we build a stronger Stellantis for the future. Nothing can be fixed overnight, but I would like to highlight three items that are our top three priorities. First, market coverage. Discontinued products from 2021-2025 led to a reduction in our market share, both in North America and in Europe. You have seen early progress in our market share gains this year.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

FastLane 2030 reinvigorates the product portfolio, getting us to around 90% market coverage in both regions, representing a huge opportunity for growth. Second challenge, industrial cost. We have improved significantly in the past year, and this remains a big opportunity to drive our financial performance. In FastLane, VCP will deliver EUR 6 billion of annual run rate cost reductions by 2028. We are making strong initial progress on VCP, and we are on track to implement 40% of the initiatives by the end of this year. This means that in 2027, we expect to enjoy EUR 2.4 billion of AOI benefits, plus the partial benefits of the initiatives we implement in 2027. Finally, quality. Our execution on quality in the past was not what it needed to be, but we have come a long way already in the last year.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Quality has improved significantly by 38% in North America and by 24% in Europe. FaSTLAne 2030 is giving the quality organization the focus and the resources they need to be in the top quartile in all regions and segments where we compete by 2028. It will take time to fully capitalize on these opportunities, but it is a time frame that is fully embedded in our 2026 guidance, in our expectation of positive industrial free cash flow in 2027, and in our 2028 FaSTLAne targets. The road is long, but we are moving in the right direction with the right priorities and with the right pace. Thank you. We will now ask the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please type pound key five on your telephone keypad. The first question comes from the line of Stuart Pearson from Oxcap Analytics. Your line is open. Stuart, we can't hear you. Maybe you're on mute. Your line is open.

Stuart Pearson
Analyst at Oxcap Analytics

Yes. Sorry. Good morning. Hopefully, you can hear me now. My mistake. Too many calls today. I guess we have to start with North America and the lack of operating leverage there. Very strong shipments coming in. We've seen, I guess, some of our expectations, another weak margin there despite cost support. Can you just dig into a little bit more why we're not seeing that? Is it pricing that's really eating into that, whichever bucket and the bridge that might really fall into? What would it really take to get those North America margins up? What are the building blocks, I guess, into 2027 that can give us some confidence on that? I guess one of those just sort of partly self-answer, I guess, is going to be the industrial cost drivers.

Stuart Pearson
Analyst at Oxcap Analytics

Obviously, a huge benefit there, that EUR 1.9 billion. The team deserve credit for that. Maybe you can help us understand what's really in there. What are the examples of actions that are driving that kind of cost tailwind in the second quarter? Should we expect, or what rate should we expect that to continue in the second half and into 2027? I know you've talked about the VCP plan. Could we take the H1 run rate, or at least most of it, and extrapolate that? Thank you.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Okay. I will take part of this question, I will pass to João the rest. What is happening in North America is, number one, the trajectory is the right one. The trend is the right one. If we compare AOI of Q2 versus AOI of Q1, the net of IEEPA refund we see a significant and meaningful improvement, as we see an improvement in shipments, in market share, for instance. It's important to repeat what I just mentioned at my closing remarks. We have a plan, pathway in 2030. It is a good structured and articulated plan. This plan addresses, in North America and globally, the three major challenges that we see in our company. One of those is industrial cost. We have an industrial cost gap, and we are addressing that daily with VCP.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

VCP will deliver, as mentioned, EUR 6 billion of cost saving run rate in 2028. We are on track to full implement 40% of initiatives that we have identified, and they are many, by the end of 2026. That means that 2026 will enjoy EUR 2.4 billion of cost saving, plus all the extra that will come from the additional initiatives that will be executed in 2027 itself. You asked some tangible example. VCP, when it comes to cost, works mainly on three major driver in our cost structure. One is direct material cost. This is the cost of component and system that we use in our cars. Here we have two leverage, the purchasing leverage to negotiation and the technical leverage to implementational technical saving. Those technical saving can be many.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

For instance, new technologies that represent the same or better performances of our products with lower cost. For instance, we use material that keep the performance of the product where they are, but they represent the cost saving, et cetera. The second driver is transformation cost. This is the cost of our manufacturing system in our plants. On there, we have tons of projects to improve efficiency. This is why our efficiency in our plants in North America is consistently and meaningfully improving since last year. You see that today our efficiency run in around 89%, which is a very good result, and that represent 870 basis points better than prior year. Here the projects are really thousands. The third driver of cost that VCP address through projects and initiatives is logistic and distribution cost. In this case also the projects are many.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

For instance, we are optimizing our routing from suppliers to plants and from plants to yards. We are increasing the loading of our logistic tools, thus saving cost. Simply we are combining warehouses, or we are shutting down warehouses, and we are putting that space in our plants. This is the third driver of efficiency that VCP will address. Again, with the objective this year to fully implement by the end of 2026, 40% of the main initiative mapped that will deliver EUR 2.4 billion of AOI savings improvement in 2027. Then the EUR 6 billion in 2028 as run rate. João, you want to take the rest of the question?

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

On the industrial cost, EUR 1.9 billion, likely more than 70%, about EUR 1.4 billion, it's split between purchasing material cost savings and warranty. On the warranty, the largest piece it's the recall required that in Q2 last year in Europe. Most of that it's because of the no repeat. On purchasing, it's the work that we are doing to reduce product costs, as we have discussed in the Investor Day That is a number that we will continue to see it improving and accelerating as we evolve with VCP. The other items that are also included on the industrial costs to give context are logistic costs and manufacturing, which we also saw improvements given the meaningful performance improvement at our plants, as Antonio mentioned on the opening remarks. We also see benefits on manufacturing cost because of the higher volume.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

There is items that are temporarily and also depends on the comparisons year-over-year. We should expect to see material cost savings to continue to progress in the second half and beyond. Just to also remind that we expect that raw material continues to be a headwind and growing in the second half versus what we saw in the first half and including in Q2. We see a lot of positives on the industrial cost and especially on the material cost, and we expect to build momentum on that.

Stuart Pearson
Analyst at Oxcap Analytics

On the operating leverage side in Q2 in North America, just because EUR 400 million volume and mix implies there's quite a negative mix in there, I guess, in Q2. Is that fair? In North America, sorry.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

The mix was not very negative. Some of that it's a chain and product content, but the operating leverage of Q2 is consistent with the margins that we have had on the previous quarters. To Antonio's point, that is a gradual exercise that we're going to improve as we work on costs and also on warranty. There was nothing, anything exceptional to that is bringing the operating leverage in automatic, other than the challenge that we have in cost and quality that Antonio already mentioned.

Stuart Pearson
Analyst at Oxcap Analytics

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Thomas Besson from Kepler Cheuvreux. Your line is open.

Thomas Besson
Thomas Besson
Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you very much. Good afternoon. I have a question about the shape of H2. Since you are coming out of relatively easy comps in terms of volumes in the first half, it becomes a bit more difficult in the second. Could you help us understand exactly what you are aiming for in terms of quarter-on-quarter or H2-on-H2 improvements? Are you going to try to improve on the reported -1.7% AOI H2 last year, or are you going to try to improve on the 0.9% underlying AOI, if we excluded the EUR 2.1 billion unusual item that you couldn't remove in the second half of last year? What will be the drivers of improvement as it will be less driven by volumes and as you will face more headwinds from raw materials? Thank you.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Our targets for H2, it should deliver the best results possible, aligned with the full-year guidance. We are not setting any specific targets for the H2 on this call. The dynamics that we expect to see on the second half, versus the first half, it's a headwind of about EUR 1 billion between raw material and then the non-repeat IEEPA tariff refund we recognized in Q1. Volume should be lower, as we saw, we build up inventory in the first half, and we expect, as Antonio mentioned, to reduce inventory in the second half. We expect to see positive mix. We expect price to be constructive, especially in North America, and we expect to continue to make progress on cost reduction. Those are the puts and takes for the second half versus first half performance.

Thomas Besson
Thomas Besson
Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you very much. Can I eventually add a follow-up, please?

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Yes, please.

Thomas Besson
Thomas Besson
Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux

Okay, great. Thank you very much. On the North American business, to follow up on Stuart's question. Your truck mix has been extremely strong in H1. We still don't see a lot of traction. Could you help us understand your costs are not where we'd like to be, quality is not perfect yet. What are the main negative drivers to your North Star margins? Is that channel mix? Is that relative pricing as well? Is it just your industrial costs and still some remaining quality issues?

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Yep. I will take this question, and then I will pass João for additional info. As I mentioned in my closing remarks, our plan, which is a good plan, address in time the major challenges that we see, right? Calling on North America, for sure, we have a quality gap that translates into warranty cost and campaign cost. This has been addressed with a very vast quality turnaround plan, which on the new product, is already delivering a much-improved product quality, 38% improvement in three months in service year-over-year. The second challenge that the plan address is a cost gap, as you mentioned, which we are addressing with VCP, with the trajectory that I already stated.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

$2.4 billion to start in 2027, plus all the additional initiatives that we'll implement in 2027, up to $6 billion cost saving run rate in 2028 and forward. Those are the two things that FaSTLAne address in North America and globally at a pace and in time, which is already embedded in all our targets. In the 2026 financial guidances that we reaffirm, in the 2027 free cash flow positive that we reaffirm, and in 2028 targets that we distributed in FaSTLAne 2030. The notional time and the timeframe needed is already embedded in the plan, and we are executing and delivering, as we showed in quarter two, accordingly to the plan. We are on track. João?

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

I don't have anything else to add, Antonio. Thank you.

Thomas Besson
Thomas Besson
Analyst at Kepler Cheuvreux

Thank you very much.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of José Asumendi from JPMorgan. Your line is open.

José Asumendi
José Asumendi
Analyst at JPMorgan

Thank you very much. Antonio, just one question please, again, on the North American margins. I am just wondering, is there not a very large opportunity to increase the utilization, the loading of the plants in North America, which then in turn would unlock the VCP cost savings, right? When I think about this, you need to win market share in the U.S. You need to increase production by, let's say, 150,000 units from here, right? When I look at the capacity of your business and I compare it a few years versus now, there is a very large opportunity to increase production. Can you help me understand a bit better, please, which product cycle, which vehicles are going to drive this increase in production in North America, which I think will drive these cost savings?

José Asumendi
José Asumendi
Analyst at JPMorgan

Across, again, VCP and unloading of the plants, which I think is when I go back again to the operating leverage, why are we not seeing the operating leverage? It must be because the loading of the plants is low. I would love to hear your thoughts, please. Correct me, please, if I am wrong. Thank you.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Thank you. Thank you very much, José , for this relevant question. Yeah, again, I need to give the notion of what we are doing, and on time, and on the time that is embedded in the plan itself. We know that we have a product gap, as you mentioned, and this product gap, obviously, hurted in the past, and we are recovering market share in North America, not only, and obviously capacity utilization. We are currently developing very competitive and successful products that we will deliver in high volumes, starting from 2028. Those are the steps. The step is now we focus on improving quality by daily and focused execution, by improving industrial cost, as we are doing, by daily and focused execution.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Both are happening, we need to accelerate more, and those will remove warranty costs and campaign costs together with, obviously, increased cost saving and industrial efficiencies. Said that, at the same time, we are introducing and we will introduce more the new products. We introduced already some. As you see, the Ram TRX SRT, that will be a great profit contributor, has been recently introduced and distributed to our dealers just six months after unveiling. We are developing, and we will launch this year Jeep Recon BEV and Jeep Grand Wagoneer REV. The high volumes product that we are executing in develop now will be delivered to the market by end of 2027, starting from 2028. The steps are those. Quality improving, warranty cost and campaign cost removed.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Cost improving, cost saving into our business, improving commercial efficiency with the lineup that we have, the new product we are introducing to increase volume and saturation, the big products that are coming by end of 2027, starting 2028. João, you want to add something?

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

No, thank you, Antonio.

José Asumendi
José Asumendi
Analyst at JPMorgan

Thank you, Antonio.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Emmanuel Rosner from Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Emmanuel Rosner
Emmanuel Rosner
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Oh, great. Thank you so much. My first question is on the second half put templates that you provided before, which are extremely helpful. I understand a lot of the headwinds around raw materials, non-repeat of IEEPA, the volume destocking. I was hoping you can just give a little bit more color on some of the tailwinds. What will drive the positive mix in the second half, the positive U.S. pricing, in particular?

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Yeah. I start to take the answer, and then I will give a word to João. The headwind that we see are the ones that João explained. We see inflation coming, we see a memory chip shortage, and we see, especially in quarter three, lower shipment driven by the shutdowns, both in Europe and seasonality in Europe and in North America. When we project to half two and quarter one specifically, the major two tailwinds will be one, again, VCP. We are meant to implement 40% of the initiative that we have mapped by end of 2026. That means that in quarter four, we will start enjoying an acceleration of cost saving coming from there, for sure. We see a constructive environment for pricing in North America specifically, and obviously, we will take that as much as possible. João?

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Yeah. On the mix, there are two things. One will be channel mix, given the seasonality of rental sales, both in North America and Europe, more heavily in the first half of the year. As we introduce new vehicles here in North America, in other regions as well, we see benefits of mix. One obvious example is the Ram TRX. On pricing, given the inflation pressures and the raw material inflation that everybody's expecting in the second half, we see constructive price again in North America and in stabilization in other regions. The third one that is very important, it's acceleration of cost reductions, as Antonio mentioned. It's really operational drivers that we are working every day to improve our business efficiencies as we develop the new products that Antonio was mentioning before.

Emmanuel Rosner
Emmanuel Rosner
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Thank you. My follow-up question is, would you be able to describe for us the competitive environment and traction you're seeing in the full size pickup market in the U.S.? Your inventories of Ram are particularly elevated, I think around 110 days at the dealers. There are some media reports on some pretty large incentives being offered in the month of July. Just curious, how much market traction you're seeing and could you describe the competitive environment for us?

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

I will take the first part of the answer. I must say that I'm very happy with Ram 1500 trajectory. Ram 1500 specifically, which is a cornerstone as a product for the Ram brand, it was declining steadily in the previous year. After the introduction of the Ram HEMI V8 engine, it started climbing up again. In July, it's crossing the line of 20% plus segment share, and has been gaining segment share and market share since 12 months ago. João, you want to take the other?

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Specifically on the Ram Light Duty, what we have on the 2026 model year, it's a normal model year transition. Again, we are constructive on price on the second half. This is the price position that we have on the Ram Light Duty right now. It's specific on the transition of the model year, and we are definitely taking advantage of the strong position that we have on that car, including the stock, to accelerate sales as we transition the model year.

Emmanuel Rosner
Emmanuel Rosner
Analyst at Wolfe Research

Great. Thanks for taking my questions.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Michael Foundoukidis from ODDO BHF. Your line is open.

Michael Foundoukidis
Michael Foundoukidis
Analyst at ODDO BHF

Yes, good afternoon. Two questions on my side. First, on VCP. Of the EUR 2.4 billion of VCP benefits that are expected in 2027, how much should flow directly to AOI versus being invested into pricing and market share gains? Second question, maybe on North America and following up on your previous answers. How much of North America margin recovery would you consider depends on higher utilization from new products arriving in 2027, 2028, versus cost reduction alone? Thank you.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Okay. On the VCP, the EUR 2.4 billion savings, we expect all of that will flow through AOI. On the second one, the biggest items to improve the AOI in North America are material cost and quality improvement. Plant utilization, it's important, and we are seeing already some efficiencies, but the magnitude of purchasing material cost efficiency in warranty is much, much larger than any efficiency that we can get on better utilization of the plants.

Michael Foundoukidis
Michael Foundoukidis
Analyst at ODDO BHF

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Philippe Houchois from Jefferies. Your line is open.

Philippe Houchois
Philippe Houchois
Analyst at Jefferies

Yes. Thank you and good morning. Two questions on product more. One is on the Cherokee. There was a lot of hope Cherokee would make a difference to market share. We don't really see it. I know there may be some production issues, but I'm trying to understand, are you de-emphasizing the product because it is not as meaningful to profitability and then it needs to be somewhat redesigned, or is it because the tariff in Mexico made it uncompetitive? In that scenario, any particular expectation of USMCA evolving and at one point, would you be transferring production of Cherokee to Belvidere, if that is the case? Is that the answer to Cherokee being a more meaningful contributor to volume and profitability? The other question I have on product still, but more on the European side, is Leapmotor.

Philippe Houchois
Philippe Houchois
Analyst at Jefferies

We've seen good volume from Stellantis in Europe, but we see negative volume mix impact. I understand the mix can be negative. I'm trying to understand how much of a contribution would you expect from Leapmotor, and to what extent my understanding of the Leapmotor setup and the cost efficiency is that the product could be dilutive to the mix of Stellantis, could they still be accretive to earnings, and is that still the right approach and when do we start to see that show up in the profitability of Europe? Do we have to wait for eventually the Peugeot brand to start coming through and contribute more positively to mix as was the case in the past? Thank you.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Okay. I will split the question in two. I will take the Cherokee question, and I will pass to João the Leapmotor question. On Cherokee, first of all, we see high interest from consumer on Cherokee. We map that every time on the funnel management, and interest is very high. What we are doing, as you said, it is very exposed to tariffs. We are balancing volumes with profit generation. We are doing that by limiting some trims and mixing on the highest and more profitable trims and limiting some channel, so improving the quality of the mix channel. This is what is happening now in Cherokee. What we are doing in parallel is to put it into VCP, so will be one of the nameplate that will receive the cost saving that we are identifying, mapping, and implementing. We are introducing more competitive trims.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

This will happen in half one next year. As you mentioned, we are repatriating Jeep Cherokee into Belvidere, and that will make Cherokee tariff-free, almost tariff-free. On Leapmotor.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Yeah. Leapmotor, it has been so far very successful. The vehicles are profitable, but as you mentioned, because of the powertrain mix of those vehicles, they have margins that is lower than the average in Europe. We continue to expect positive contribution and increasing contribution from Leapmotor as we launch new vehicles and expand the portfolio in Europe. So far it's very successful and, again, it's profitable, but definitely has a negative impact on mix because of the powertrain. Thank you.

Philippe Houchois
Philippe Houchois
Analyst at Jefferies

Understood. If I can squeeze in for back to Antonio, do you have a date for when Belvidere would start production of the Cherokee, please?

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

No, we cannot unveil this date in this call. Thank you.

Philippe Houchois
Philippe Houchois
Analyst at Jefferies

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Christoph Laskawi from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.

Christoph Laskawi
Christoph Laskawi
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. I'd like to ask on cash generation in the second half. Obviously, you point to Q4 being better than Q3 and CapEx ramping up quite a lot. Could you comment on the CapEx phasing? Will it start in Q3 right away with far higher spending, or is it mostly Q4? With working capital reversing or likely reversing in Q3, should we prepare for a free cash flow, which is an outflow of over EUR 1 billion plus in Q3? Any comment on free cash flow phasing would be appreciated. Thank you.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Thank you for the question. The first comment is that, if we look at the second half versus first half, we expect to have higher CapEx, and we expect the higher CapEx to pick up already in Q3 and then Q4 again. We'll see a gradual improvement as we continue to develop the new programs that were set under FaSTLAne 2030. For the second half, we expect working capital to be again positive, as usually happens, at the end of the year as we reduce, especially property stock. On seasonality between Q3 and Q4, you're right that working capital in Q3, it's negative and it will have the same not the same amount, but the same dynamic that happened last year because of the summer production shutdowns, both in North America and Europe.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Q3, it's normal that the working capital is negative and will be the same this year.

Christoph Laskawi
Christoph Laskawi
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Thank you. If I may, follow up just on Europe. You mentioned other regions' pricing stabilization. Is this seen in Europe, or is it actually the competitiveness accelerating, given the inflow of low-cost competitors in the market? Do you expect the pricing pressure in H2 essentially to be offset with the industrial savings? Thank you.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

The industrial saving will have an important role both in North America and as you mentioned, in Europe. The pricing environment will be constructive in North America and we believe not deteriorating in Europe. In the other region, we believe that as well, VCP and industrial saving will be a major lever. We see some opportunity of pricing in the other regions.

Christoph Laskawi
Christoph Laskawi
Analyst at Deutsche Bank

Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Itay Michaeli from TD Cowen. Your line is open.

Itay Michaeli
Itay Michaeli
Analyst at TD Cowen

Great. Thanks. Hi, everybody. Two quick questions for me. First, I was hoping you could maybe share how you're thinking about targeted U.S. inventory levels by year-end, whether it's base supply or absolute units. Secondly, as we think about the achievement of positive industrial free cash flow in 2027, I was curious kind of what kind of volume growth or revenue growth you roughly might need, to get to that level of free cash flow next year. Thank you.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Okay. I will answer to the question of the U.S. inventory. I said we peaked in June at 390, moving from January to June plus 70,000. 65,000 of those 70,000 are new products that we expect to accelerate in sale in H2. Also the anticipation of build-up for the planned summer shutdowns in our North American plant. July sales rates are already moving the inventory largely down. We believe that we will end July as U.S. dealer inventory at around 365,000. Moving forward, we believe that this absolute number can be the one that will allow us to accelerate the sales that we want to do, and also introduce the new products that we are doing, such as the Ram TRX SRT, which will be very profitable, very positive for mix, the Jeep Recon BEV and the Jeep Grand Wagoneer REV.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

João, you want to take the other one?

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Yeah. In FastLane, we set the revenue target for 2028 at EUR 175 billion. The revenue that we are expecting for 2027, it's intermediary between what we're going to close 2026 and the 2028 targets. It's a reasonable volume growth on the back of the products that we continue to launch. The biggest driver for the positive free cash flow next year is the earnings. Volume will be a part of that, but the biggest part of the earnings growth next year, as we are talking many times here, it's industrial efficiencies, including the savings that we expect from PCP. Industrial costs and industrial efficiency will be the biggest driver of the earnings improvement next year that will drive to the positive free cash flow.

Itay Michaeli
Itay Michaeli
Analyst at TD Cowen

That's very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from the line of Christian Fren, from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Christian Fren
Christian Fren
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Yes. Hello, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I just want to come back to North America again, and specifically on the volume and mix portion of the bridge, where you reported EUR 409 million of benefit. That's down sequentially. I'm just wondering the drop-through, if I look at the drop-through from Q1, I think you were 27% on that line item, and it's now dropped to 8%. Just like to understand again, if any sort of specific reasons for that, or if the recalls, I think you mentioned the recalls, were also present in North America, and, I'm not sure if raw materials would come into this line item, but if you could flag any reason for that significant sequential drop in volume and mix drop-through.

Christian Fren
Christian Fren
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Secondly, on the vehicle net price, also sticking with North America, we went from a positive number in Q1 to a negative number. Just trying to understand, especially on the content side, what happened there and how we should think about the second half. Thank you.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Okay. On the sequential drop-through impact, the biggest driver of the Q2 versus Q1 mix deterioration is nameplate mix, as we increase shipments of some of the vehicles built, especially in Mexico. Basically, the increase of vehicles built in Mexico were the ones. It's basically nameplate mix based on the vehicles that we shipped in Q2. Nothing special other than the specific time of the mix that happened in Q2 versus Q1.

Christian Fren
Christian Fren
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. That's really helpful. Thank you very much. If I could just have a follow-up question on your investment spend. I think you're keeping your investment spend for the full year still intact. If my calculations are right, in H1, you spent about EUR 3 and a half billion, which would imply H2 investment spend of about EUR 7.4 billion or thereabouts. That's a very significant increase, H1 to H2, which we didn't actually see in the last two years. Again, could you help me understand why there's this significant shift? Or perhaps I'm making an error in these numbers. Thanks.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Yeah. We can take this offline because I think some of the numbers that you're taking, you're probably not capturing all the parameter. In H1, our total investment as a percentage of revenue, and we can reconcile offline, it was 6.3%.

Christian Fren
Christian Fren
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Yeah.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Yeah, there is over EUR 1 billion of higher CapEx in the second half versus first half. That's what we are expecting.

Christian Fren
Christian Fren
Analyst at Goldman Sachs

Okay. Thank you.

João Laranjo
João Laranjo
CFO at Stellantis

Bye.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this was the last question for today. With this, let me now hand the call back to Mr. Antonio Filosa for the conclusion.

Antonio Filosa
Antonio Filosa
CEO at Stellantis

Well. Very, very well. Thank you again for joining us today and for the time and focus you have put into reviewing our results and listening to our business updates. Thank you again and see you next time. Bye-bye.

Executives
    • Charles Christman
      Charles Christman
      Head of Investor Relations
    • Antonio Filosa
      Antonio Filosa
      CEO
    • João Laranjo
      João Laranjo
      CFO
Analysts
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