Braskem Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 14, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Recurring EBITDA rose to $1.043 billion in Q2, supported by substantially wider resin and chemical spreads and $150 million in PIS/COFINS feedstock credits. Operating cash generation was $385 million, although working-capital investment reduced recurring cash generation to approximately $210 million.
  • Negative Sentiment: The company emphasized that the improved spreads were driven by a temporary Middle East-related supply shock, not a structural recovery. Consultants expect spreads to normalize in the second half of 2026 amid excess global capacity, moderate demand and low industry utilization rates.
  • Negative Sentiment: Braskem is pursuing a consensual financial restructuring with bank creditors and bondholders to rebalance its capital structure. Management said preserving liquidity and optimizing capital allocation are short-term priorities.
  • Negative Sentiment: Braskem Idesa reduced Mexican polyethylene utilization to 43% to preserve liquidity, reflecting lower ethane supplies from imports and Pemex; polyethylene sales declined 11% sequentially. Brazilian resin sales also fell 2%, pressured by imports and weaker polyethylene and PVC volumes.
  • Positive Sentiment: Progress on the Alagoas geological-event response continued, with 99.9% of residence relocations and compensation proposals completed or submitted, while cavity closure work advanced. The remaining provision balance declined to approximately BRL 3.2 billion after BRL 14.6 billion of prior disbursements.
AI Generated. May Contain Errors.
Earnings Conference Call
Braskem Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

There are 3 speakers on the call.

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for waiting. Welcome to Braskem's second quarter of 2026 results conference call. With us here today, we have Mr. Hélcio Tokeshi, Braskem CEO, Mr. Carlos Brandão, Braskem CFO, and Mrs. Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations, Strategic Planning, and Global Market Intelligence Director. We inform you that this event is being recorded. The presentation will be held in Portuguese with simultaneous translation into English. All participants can choose which language to listen to and see the presentation using the Show Caption and View Options button respectively. After Braskem remarks, there will be a Q&A session. Please be advised that questions must be sent through the Q&A button. I will now repeat the same instructions in Portuguese. We inform you that this event is being recorded. The presentation will be held in Portuguese with simultaneous translation into English.

Operator

All participants can choose which language to listen to and see the presentation using the Show Captions and View Options buttons respectively. After Braskem remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Please know that questions should be submitted in writing through the Q&A button. The audio of this event will be available on the Investor Relations website after it ends. We remind you that the participants will be able to submit questions to Braskem, which will be answered after the end of this conference by the IR Department. Before proceeding, we would like to clarify that any statements that may be made during this conference call regarding Braskem's business prospects, projections, operational and financial goals are beliefs and assumptions of the company's management, as well as information currently available to Braskem.

Operator

Future considerations are not guarantee of performance and involve risks, uncertainties, and assumptions as they refer to future events, and therefore depend on circumstances that may or may not occur. Investors and analysts should understand the general conditions, industry conditions, as well as other operational factors may affect Braskem's future results and may lead to results that differ materially from those expressed in such future considerations. Now I will turn the conference over to Mrs. Rosana Avolio, Investor Relations, Strategic Planning, and Global Market Intelligence Director. Mrs. Avolio, you may begin your presentation. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for participating in the Braskem earnings release conference call for the second quarter of 2026.

Operator

Today, we will present the main operational and financial highlights for the period, discuss the market environment that affected our business, detail the performance of each segment, and share our market outlook for the coming quarters, as well as the company's priorities for the second half of 2026. Following the agenda on slide number 3, we will begin by presenting the context observed in the second quarter of 2026, starting with slide number 4. In the second quarter of 2026, the global macroeconomic environment remained volatile due to the conflict in the Middle East, which restricted the global supply of feedstock, particularly to Asia, and raised international market prices of oil and naphtha, the company's main feedstock. Given the above context, production costs among marginal producers in Asia were higher, which positively impacted the prices of resins and chemicals on the international market.

Operator

Prices were higher when compared to the first quarter of 2026. As you can see, this trend is evident in the main PE and PP spreads, which were significantly higher than the average from 2016 to 2025. In the U.S. PE market, for example, the spread was almost 40% higher, driven mainly by the temporary widening of arbitrage between the U.S. and Asia. This move opened up an export opportunity to the U.S. PE market with more attractive netbacks and higher margins. Behaviors similar to that observed in the U.S. PE-ethane markets, which also saw significant increases, given that the price of ethane in the U.S. market did not follow the price increases of other petrochemical feedstocks. It is worth noting that this improvement in international spreads results mainly from an on-off supply shock, and not from a structural change in the dynamics of the global petrochemical cycle.

Operator

Moving on to the next slide, the performance of each segment of the company will be presented below, starting with Brazil on slide number 6. The petrochemical plants in the Brazil segment presented an average utilization rate in line with the previous quarter, higher by one percentage point. This result is mainly attributable to the strategy of maintaining production levels in response to the high volatility of feedstock prices in international markets resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. In relation to sales, the volume of resins in the Brazilian market was 2% lower compared to the previous quarter. This result is mainly attributable to a 6% decrease in polyethylene sales volume and a 1% decrease in PVC sales volume due to higher volumes of imported products during the period.

Operator

This effect was partially offset by the 3% increase in polypropylene sales, in line with the growth in demand in the Brazilian market. Sales volume of chemicals, however, was down 4%, mainly due to the lower availability of gasoline and benzene for sale and lower demand for ethylene and styrene in the Brazilian market. Regarding the quarter's results, the segment recurring EBITDA was $869 million, an increase of 261% compared to the previous quarter. This result was mainly driven by the segment's higher contribution margin due to approximately 50% increase in the spreads for resins and major chemicals in the international market, 50% as mentioned previously. In addition to the positive impact of $115 million from PIS/COFINS credits on the purchase of feedstocks under the REIQ and SUDAM program.

Operator

In addition, the recovery of nearly $27 million in credits related to vessel demurrage and the reversal of our accounting provisions had a positive impact on the segment's results. These effects were partially offset by the 4% appreciation of the average Brazilian real against the average dollar for the period, and by the lower sales volume of resin and major chemicals in the Brazilian market. Next slide, please. In the second quarter of 2026, the green ethylene utilization rate was higher by two percentage points compared to the first quarter of 2026, mainly due to the adjustment of production levels in response to higher demand. During the period, sales of green polyethylene increased by 49%, mainly due to greater commercial opportunities in Europe and the normalization of demand following the seasonal effect of the Chinese New Year in the previous quarter.

Operator

Highlights for the quarter include the renewal of our commercial partnership with New Balance to use I'm green bio-based EVA in the soles of running shoes, strengthening our existing commercial partnerships. Next slide. The U.S. and Europe segment registered a utilization rate of 76% in the quarter. The reduction of 3 percentage points in relation to the previous quarter is explained by the scheduled maintenance shutdowns in plants in the U.S. and in Germany, lasting 35 and 30 days respectively. It is worth noting that the higher sales volumes in the United States was offset by the lower sales volume in Europe due to the inventory management and the processing chain in the region, which meant that the sales volume in the quarter was in line when compared to the first quarter of 2026. In the quarter, the recurring EBITDA of the United States and Europe segment was $147 million.

Operator

The increase in relation to the previous quarter is mainly explained by the positive impact of the higher polypropylene spreads in the international market arising from the conflict in the Middle East. Moving on to the next slide. In Mexico, the capacity utilization rate for polyethylene plants was 43%, down 12 percentage points from the previous quarter, mainly due to the liquidity preservation measures adopted by Braskem IDESA. During the quarter, average ethane imports through the terminal amounted to 14,700 barrels per day, a decrease of approximately 3,000 barrels per day compared to the first quarter of 2026. Additionally, the supply of ethane by Pemex in the second quarter was 11,800 barrels per day, a reduction of about 3,000 barrels per day when compared with the first quarter of 2026.

Operator

Polyethylene sales were lower by 11%, impacted by the lower availability of product for sale due to the lower utilization rate. In this context, the recurring EBITDA of the Mexico segment was $57 million in the second quarter of 2026. The improvement in relation to the previous quarter is mainly explained by the increase in the polyethylene spread in the United States by 73%, impacted by the uncertainties related to the conflict in the Middle East. Next slide, please. In this next chapter, I will present the company's consolidated financial results. Consolidated recurring EBITDA in the second quarter of 2026 was $1.043 billion, with an EBITDA margin of 24%, representing an increase compared to the previous quarter.

Operator

This increase compared to the previous quarter is mainly due to the increase of 82% and 98% in the average international spreads of resins and main chemicals in the Brazil and South America segment. A 28% increase in the average polypropylene spread in the United States and Europe market segments, and a 73% increase in the international polyethylene spread in the Mexico market segment. Additionally, results were positively impacted by $150 million, or BRL 578 million, result of PIS/COFINS credits for the purchase of feedstocks under the REIQ inputs program in Brazil. Such effects were partially offset by the average appreciation of the Brazilian real against the dollar of 4% during the period. Also, sales of resins and main chemicals decreased in the Brazilian market by 2% and 4%, respectively. Additionally, there was an 11% decrease in PE sales in Mexico. Next slide, please.

Operator

The company presented an operating cash generation of $385 million, which mainly reflected an increase in chemical and petrochemical spreads in the international market, driven by the conflict in the Middle East. Negative variation in working capital was mainly due to the high volatility of feedstock prices in international markets, and an increase in inventory volumes due to prioritization of sales with higher added value. Recurring cash generation totaled approximately $210 million. Finally, when disbursements for Alagoas and payments related to lease purchase agreements are considered, the company presented a cash consumption of approximately $15 million in the period. Next slide, please. As of the end of June 2026, work fronts in Maceió continued to move forward as planned. The relocation and compensation work front ended the quarter off with a 99.9% completion rate through the residence relocation program.

Operator

The same percentage of proposals were submitted under the financial compensation and relocation support program, and approximately 99.7% of the proposals were accepted and also paid out. In parallel, we continued to move forward with the closing and monitoring of south cavities. Every effort has been made along this work front to ensure, if necessary, that these 35 cavities require zero maintenance over the long term. Six cavities were filled naturally during the second quarter of 2026. A further eight cavities were completed, and the technical fill limit was reached in six cavities. Finally, three cavities are in the filling process and one cavity in the planning phase. As a result, the total financial provision implemented for the event in Alagoas as of the end of June 2026 was approximately BRL 18.2 billion.

Operator

Which approximately BRL 14.6 billion was previously disbursed, and nearly BRL 1.2 billion were reclassified under other payables. As a result, the total provision balance as of the end of the second quarter of 2026 was BRL 3.2 billion. Next slide, please. The next few slides represent the chemical and petrochemical scenario prospectus. Slide 15 presents the expected scenario for the second half of 2026 and 2027. The base scenarios prepared by consulting firms for these periods point to moderate spreads and potential occasional upsides. The gradual normalization of trade flows will tend to reduce the premium observed in the second quarter of 2026. However, geopolitical, logistical, and operational risks may continue to sustain volatility and value capture opportunities. These trends can be observed in the main spreads.

Operator

With regards to Brazilian PE-Naphtha, external consulting firms expect a 59% decrease between the second and third quarters of 2026, given that a reduction in arbitrage between the U.S. and Asia is expected, starting in the third quarter. Similar results are expected for Brazilian PP-Naphtha and Mexican PE-Ethane, which also saw a decrease. Consultants are predicting a base scenario marked by the normalization of spreads, driven by the redirection of flows, moderate demand and excess global supply. However, potential upsides remain possible if disruptions persist or intensify. I would therefore like to reiterate that we remain attentive to these potential trajectories and we are ready to capture opportunities whenever the environment allows. Slide 16 presents an outlook for the global petrochemical industry from specialized external consultants.

Operator

Despite improvements observed during the second quarter of 2026, the petrochemical cycle is expected to remain structurally challenging over the coming periods. The increase in spreads in the second quarter of 2026 resulted from a supply shock. Medium-term fundamentals, meanwhile, remain under pressure due to overcapacity and moderate demand. Global operating rates remain under pressure in both the PE and PP sectors, a reflection of global overcapacity, particularly in Asia, and continued moderate demand. The structural challenges, such as excess supply and need for rationalization of capacity and greater operational discipline existed before the conflict and will tend to persist even after trade flows are normalized. It is therefore important to emphasize that the scenario for the second quarter of 2026 should be interpreted as a tactical capture of value and not as a structural change in the cycle. Let's move on to the next slide.

Operator

I will end off by commending the company's priorities for the second half of 2026. Braskem reviews targets and priorities for the second half of 2026 in response to recent changes in the company's environment and business activities. These changes are due to external and internal factors within the global scenario in the petrochemical industry and Braskem's new shareholding structure. I'd like to highlight our new priorities for the second half of the year, given the above context in relation to our pillars of action. We will move forward along two complementary work fronts under the restructuring pillars. These efforts will focus on optimizing Braskem capital structures, including Braskem IDESA, guaranteeing business continuity and activities. Additionally, given the ongoing challenges faced in global industry, the company remains committed to disciplining capital allocation, focused on preserving and optimizing financial liquidity.

Operator

We are expanding our ambition to strengthen our business structure competitiveness under our operational and commercial pillar through the implementation of an operation excellence program, synergies, and the strengthening of commercial value capture levers. Furthermore, we remain committed to reinforcing our institutional performance and promoting a more competitive business environment for the Brazilian chemical and petrochemical industries. Additionally, we will remain focused on completing the mapping of further value creation opportunities and beginning to capture these benefits through the transformation plan. Finally, we are moving forward with our commitment to fulfilling agreements related to geological event in Alagoas and with regards to safety, which remains as a non-negotiable value at the company. We remain dedicated to guarantee reliable and safe operations, protecting people and safeguarding the integrity of our processes across all regions where we operate.

Operator

We've reached the end of our presentation of Braskem results for the second quarter of 2026. I would like to thank you all for your attention, and we will now begin our Q&A session. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the Q&A session. Sorry. Please be advised that question must be sent through the Q&A button. The company may proceed, please.

Speaker 1

Global macroeconomic and petrochemical sectors. Over the next few years, we are going to live in a very challenging scenario with a high level of volatility. This is a very important time for the industry, but I also see this with very positive view because we have a highly qualified team, a lot of institutional knowledge, and we are very serious about what we do. We are focused on building and strengthening relationships based on trust. To that end, we will continue to share with you not just our results, but also our opinions about our outlook and Braskem's conditions. I would like to provide some context about Braskem's current status and outlook. Q2 was positive in terms of operations. We had favorable results given the conflict in the Middle East.

Speaker 1

Based on our team's agility and thanks to our institutional knowledge, we were able to capture many different markets with a positive reflection on our results. We closed the quarter in essentially neutral financials. We were able to capture energy as well. Although due to the increase in feedstocks and lines of credit, things became a little bit more difficult. Over the past few weeks, we have seen numbers return to levels close to what they were at before the war, which brings us back to a scenario where we can act with discipline in an environment we are accustomed to doing business in. In conclusion, we must consider the structural adverse environment that the petrochemical industry is in, and also our need for financial restructuring.

Speaker 1

More than looking at just one quarter's performance, we now have an important moment where we can look at Braskem's future. This begins a new phase for the company. We are entering this new stage with a clear objective, to build a company that is stronger, more competitive, financially solid, and prepared to generate value consistently in the long term for our shareholders and other stakeholders. Our priority is to move forward in developing sustainable capital. We want to establish solid foundations that allow Braskem to generate value consistently in the long term. In parallel, we continue to move forward in our transformation project, which is focused on generating and capturing cash and the EBITDA through operational excellence, cost discipline, and capturing synergies throughout our organization. These agendas do not move separately. They move hand in hand.

Speaker 1

For us, Braskem's future necessarily involves two complementary pillars, a sustainable capital structure and the constant strengthening of our competitiveness. Going back to what I mentioned at the beginning, we have operational excellence, ability to innovate, a global presence, and most importantly, people with a huge ability to execute. Our work now is to transform these strengths into greater efficiency, greater cash generation, and sustainable value generation. We know we have a lot of work ahead of us, and this will demand discipline, speed, and consistency. Yet we are clear about our priorities, and we will continue to implement them. Thank you all for joining us once again, and we will now begin the question and answer session. Thank you.

Operator

Hello. Thank you, Hélcio. This is Rosana. While the dynamics will be similar to other calls, we will welcome the questions. Some questions are similar, so we will answer your questions in block. Let's check the questions by some of the market analysts regarding the financial restoration of the company. Basically, the main question has to do with the status of this process. Mr. Brandão, our CFO, will discuss the status of this restructuring process focused on the company's capital structure.

Speaker 2

Just a moment, please. Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for joining us this quarter for our earnings call, and thanks for your questions. As we've just mentioned, the restructuring efforts are one of the primary priorities for us in the short term, and we've been discussing this with some major groups of creditors. One is majority composed of representatives of banks, and others are bondholders who hold shares of the company. As we always reiterate, our goal is for a consensual restructuring, which is moving forward with dialogue from all parties. I believe we are moving toward a development that will once again rebalance the company's capital structure in the long term.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Brandão. Now we have a question about CapEx in the first half of 2026 was different from the round eight to get to reach to the guidance. Can we expect a full catch-up in the second half of the year? Could you detail with CapEx what is lagging and what will be majorly allocated through the year? I will answer this and then Brandão can comment, too. Historically, let me talk about the rambling rate of the company is around $500 million. There is an effort of the company to optimize. This is an important effort given the dynamics of the petrochemical industry, which was broadly discussed during the presentation. As far as 2026 goes, we have our global asset CapEx, excepting IDESA of $485 million. Up to this moment, we have spent 35% of what we expect for the year.

Operator

Regarding your question, Mr. Castro, if we go back to the 2025 disbursement at the same moment by the end of the first semester was equal 35%. So we are in line. When the company opens the year, we have a plan to follow the pre-approved plan in the budget, which is broadly discussed and presented to the board. Naturally, there's a major disbursement during the second half of 2025, and we expect to reach what was shared as a Braskem investment expectation. The next question has to do with regarding Braskem IDESA. As we have discussed in the presentation, Braskem IDESA has reduced its operation to preserve liquidity. The question has to do with that, whether the company expects, given financial restructuring efforts that Vendel mentioned, if we expect to have the same initiative here in terms of utilization rate in Brazil. Vendel.

Speaker 1

Thank you, Rosana, and thanks for the question too. These things are all connected. Restructuring, the capital structure and our operations, they are all connected. These measures protect the company, and they protect the capital structure too. They allow the company to continue doing business. The company continues to seek opportunities that the market makes available. There is no indication that there will be any change to demand for our products. To that end, we do not foresee any change to our operation rates.

Operator

Thank you very much. Moving on, let me take Safra question. Good morning, Conrado. How have you seen the inventory levels across the supply chain evolving since the end of the quarter? Has there been any recovery in demand alongside the drawdown on inventory? Is there any movement towards restocking yet? I will start answering this question, and then you can complement. Well, in this quarter, Conrado, we have seen a growth in demand in the Brazilian market. Before talking about the Brazilian market, let me talk briefly about the global demand dynamics. We have had this conflict that started in February 28. The initial expectation was that if there was a lack of product in the world, those producers who have access to feedstock, input stock, dedicated feedstock, the case of Braskem, we expected to be privileged.

Operator

What we saw is that in spite of this supply shock that was very particular, there is a dependency on Middle East and Asia for feedstock, especially oil and natural gas. We realized that the world adjusted to the demand. These spreads, till they get to normality, we have to see that as we presented. Now moving on to the dynamics in Brazil, as I mentioned, we saw a demand growth in the quarter also motivated by the conflict in the Middle East. We would imagine that we would lack product, but again, the world has adjusted. There is an expectation that this war will be ended. The company expects that aligned with external consulting firms, by the way. Then we have seen a, let me call, a weakened demand in the world and also in Brazil.

Operator

We can compare this to demand expectation in Brazil. When we opened by the beginning of the year and up until now in the Brazilian market, apart from PVC due to the New Sanitation Legal Framework, but this is a particular thing, it is not a structural market change. We see that demand tends to be lower than what was initially expected. As far as the question goes, we have seen a level of inventory that is balanced in the chain and import level that are getting into the Brazilian market, especially in polyethylene, with a cost of production that is more competitive than the Brazilian cost. I mean, an ethane-based competitive for ethylene and also the price of the molecule. The company, in this sense, as we have reported, has been trying to find the balance by looking for opportunity. But Braskem can fully supply the Brazilian market.

Operator

This is one of our top priorities when it comes to Brazilian production. We'll always try to meet the demands of the Brazilian market, in meeting the demands of our Brazilian customers. Thank you. Now, moving on, let me take a question regarding working capital. The question is that given that commercial reduction of risk consumption the company, how can you manage working capital to deal with decrease in utilization rates in petrochemical plants in Brazil and in Mexico? I will talk about Brazil specifically. In Brazil, utilization rate is already a function that captures the demand and also captures opportunities and even payment conditions. It has to do with the industrial productive planning that has an important input. This reduction you mentioned has been taking place for a year, a year and a half, due to the downgrade we had of credit rating agencies. But we've been managing this.

Operator

From the operating standpoint, a commercial standpoint, we visit clients, we see them trying to activate our long-term relationships. You can see in our quarter information that is an explanatory note mentioning a reduction in the average price of clients' receivables. That's how the company has managed the working capital here in Brazil. Just one thing I would like to add. Regarding the volatility of the external scenario, it's not that the company could not increase the operation, and we didn't. In fact, we have taken all the opportunities we could find, but we are pretty cautious because this volatile scenario requires us to be cautious and it remains in itself.

Speaker 2

Of course, Rosana has mentioned the effects of working capital, and we've seen effects since September of last year, and we knew we were thinking of opening a capital restructuring plan. We were particularly cautious about our results. This quarter, the impacts were significantly better, and we expect that moving forward, the impact will absolutely be neutral as we move forward with the precautionary measure. Thank you.

Operator

Now, moving on, we have this, the consolidation of the new shared governance between IG4 Capital and Petrobras under Hélcio Tokeshi's leadership. The market wants to understand long-term plans. Petrobras is a strategic partner. How can the board balance the reduction in leverage with investment in synergies, operating synergies plan for the second quarter regarding the new controllers?

Speaker 1

It's very important for us to be very familiar with the nature of the industry where we do business. In this industry, many of our units have decades of history. Of course, they go through revamps and improvements, but these assets are extremely long-lived. This is an industry where it does not make any sense to think in the very short term. It just doesn't work that way. The changes we've been seeing now are the results of that. For instance, China is now seeing the fruits of things that they started planning 35 years ago. In other words, from our perspective, from the perspective of a collegiate board, it doesn't make sense for us to have any other kind of viewpoint other than a long-term one, because this is the view that allows us to have solid, robust decisions.

Speaker 1

Of course, we do also think in the short term, but those are opening measures. There are two pillars, and one is the transformation, because this is not a transformation that will occur in the quarterly or yearly basis. Instead, this is a structural transformation that will allow us to have the efficiency, sustainability, and solid results that we need. Because this is the new reality where all of us will continue to live for a long time yet. So it makes no sense to have a short-term view. We always need to balance short-term view with long-term views. That is what is going to give us a robust, sustainable, and competitive result for Braskem so that we can continue to generate value for our stakeholders.

Speaker 1

Just to add to what he said, I think the complementary nature of the profiles of the new partners who are now part of the collegiate board is particularly valuable for value generation. IG4 Capital is not focused in the short term. It's a manager focused on long-term value creation, which is built by implementing the right strategies, which in turn allow the company's strength to be focused on. We see this in the day-to-day as we do business with Petrobras, which has been particularly positive and high synergy in these two different abilities.

Operator

Thank you. Now moving on. There is a question, there are some questions, in fact, related to the returning of the spreads to the abnormality in the sector, in the segment. How you see this returning to normal and what. Under this context, there's another question regarding sales volumes for the next quarter. How is the entering of exports in Brazil, how has this behaving?

Speaker 1

Yes, you're right. It's also part of the results

Operator

presentation. I will divide all of this conflict dynamic into some parts. As I said before, first of all, when the conflict started, back then, we had this expectation of the industry as a whole of lacking products. So spreads reached a high cycle. There was a cycle uptrend. We didn't expect this, or other consulting firms didn't expect this, but the world has adjusted to this reality. I mean, the global demand. Which led to the fact that from June on, with the announcements of a possible ceasefire, these demands would adjust even more and the spread would get back to normal, let's say. Nowadays, the expectation and what we put in our earnings presentation is an average of specialized consulting firms. They expect that these spreads will return to levels that were close to pre-conflict levels, especially in the first quarter.

Operator

And in some situations, spreads that will be even lower than that. I would like to reinforce not only the message, but the fundamentals of it. We are in the middle of a war. We don't know if it's going to scale or it's going to end. There's a lot of volatility in oil. We are waiting to see how it unfolds. But the fundamentals of the industry are maintained to pre-conflict levels. These are fundamental pillars. By the end of 2025, we had already observed almost 20 million tons of oversupply in the world, and I'm talking about polyethylene. It's almost 15% of the industry capacity today. This is an operation rate that is in the lowest level. This is the fundamental aspect of the industry, and you need to get ready for that regardless of any optimistic or waiting for a spread to change due to the conflict.

Operator

And now, what we expect for the third quarter. Usually, third quarters, and we always mention this, they have a seasonality effect, especially by the end of the third quarter, because we expect preparations for end of the year parties. But we are not seeing the seasonality. So in fact, it's really hard to predict how we'll deal with that. But we will get ready to capture opportunities, meet the demands of the Brazilian market. There's no doubt that the U.S. producers, due to this known lack of products in the world, they keep on placing products for a lower level of price, lower than the petrochemical industry in Brazil. We're trying to revert this, to change this as well as we can, by having good relationships with long-term clients or maybe working with federal authorities and so on, in the context of the polyethylene anti-dumping idea.

Operator

We expect a recovery in sales for the next few months, maybe before this recovery of the margin. We are working very hard to achieve that, but right now it's hard to set an expectation on what's going to happen in the next few months. Now moving on. The question is about anti-dumping related to, in line with what I just said about the anti-dumping measure currently applied to the polyethylene from the U.S. Has Braskem been actively participating in this process with Brazilian authorities? In the company's view, what would be the main impact on the domestic market, I mean, the Brazilian market, if the measure or if the measures were extended? Alcides, please.

Speaker 1

Anti-dumping is a process that is very well handled by the authorities and the different ministries and GECEX, which is the ministry that handles that. They perform a meticulous technical study based on data from those companies. When they detect that there has been dumping, which is what occurred, there is a causal relationship. The government understood that it did need to modulate things, and it has performed that. So today, we do have an anti-dumping measure in effect, effective today. We believe that these measures need to be reviewed and revised, and we are in discussion with all ministries in GECEX. We understand that they clearly understand that the flows need to be balanced due to this imbalance that is occurring because of the dumping that's been performed. We think that things could be improved. We've made requests to improve the degree of protection.

Speaker 1

This is currently under discussion, and we hope that, and expect the government to take a responsible decision, responsible measures over the coming weeks, and we will wait and see.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we now complete the Q&A conference call for Braskem. Mr. Hélcio, the floor is yours.

Speaker 1

Well, thanks again. I am very grateful that you all took the time to take part in our earnings call. I would like to conclude by reinforcing the fact that we have two complementary pillars. One is to attain and secure a sustainable capital structure in a constructive manner by performing discussions with our creditors. The second is to continuously strengthen our competitive nature. That is why we launched the transformation plan. That is why we do most of what we do. We have a phenomenal team with extremely high quality. We have a fantastic amount of quality of people with us. This makes us cautiously optimistic that we will be able to do good work in this direction. Over the coming months and years, we will all be able to have many more of these earnings calls and improve our relationship even further.

Speaker 1

This is strong work that the company has been engaging in with all of you for a long time now, and we believe that we will continue to improve things over time. Thank you.

Operator

The Braskem teleconference is hereby closed. Thank you all for your participation and have a nice afternoon.

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