Vivid Seats Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Quartr
Provided by Quartr
August 4, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Q2 results exceeded expectations, with Marketplace GOV rising 8% sequentially to $659 million, revenue increasing 3% to $130 million, and adjusted EBITDA growing 33% to $12.6 million. Results were driven substantially by FIFA World Cup demand, which contributed a mid-teens percentage of quarterly GOV.
  • Positive Sentiment: Vivid Seats reported a greater than 99.7% successful fulfillment rate for World Cup orders and said customer-experience metrics exceeded those of its average event, potentially supporting repeat purchases and brand momentum.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Management reiterated its plan to return to year-over-year growth in the second half of 2026, while acknowledging that event demand is episodic and that post-World Cup activity has been somewhat softer. Fiscal 2026 guidance is for Marketplace GOV of $2.3 billion–$2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $34 million–$40 million.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company highlighted continued growth in private-label revenue, strong performance from a recently added partner, and the launch of a SkyBox broker-to-broker marketplace. Management also cited encouraging app engagement, product improvements, and an international business that is already contribution-margin positive.
  • Positive Sentiment: Vivid Seats ended the quarter with $137 million in cash and renewed its revolving credit facility through August 2029, improving liquidity and financial flexibility. Management expects the business to be cash generative in 2026 if it delivers its growth and EBITDA objectives.
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Earnings Conference Call
Vivid Seats Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

Transcript Sections

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Operator

Good morning. Welcome to Vivid Seats' Q2 2026 earnings conference call. Following management's prepared remarks, we will open the call for Q&A. I would now like to turn the call over to Austin Arnett.

Austin Arnett
Austin Arnett
General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at Vivid Seats

Good morning. Welcome to Vivid Seats' Q2 2026 earnings conference call. I'm Austin Arnett, Vivid Seats' General Counsel. I'm joined today by Larry Fey, Chief Executive Officer, and Joseph Thomas, Chief Financial Officer. By now, everyone should have access to the earnings press release we issued earlier this morning. The release and supplemental earnings slides are available on our investor relations website. Today's call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. These statements are subject to risks that could cause actual results to differ materially, including that as discussed in our earnings release, most recent annual report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings with the SEC. Today's call will also include references to adjusted EBITDA, a non-GAAP financial measure.

Austin Arnett
Austin Arnett
General Counsel and Corporate Secretary at Vivid Seats

To the extent reasonably available, a reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to net income or loss, its most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, can be found in our earnings release and supplemental earnings slides. Now I'll turn the call over to Larry.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. Two quarters into the year, we are encouraged by the progress we have made and believe our strategic actions are delivering measurable results. Our Q2 results exceeded expectations as we delivered sequential quarterly growth across GOV revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Q2 benefited from extraordinary demand surrounding the FIFA World Cup, with consumer engagement and transaction activity well above typical seasonal levels. Last quarter, we said that we expected the World Cup to generate demand somewhere between an A-list concert tour and Taylor Swift's record-breaking Eras Tour. The opportunity proved even more significant. The volume of activity was comparable to the entire Eras Tour, but largely concentrated into the Q2 rather than spread across two years.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

We successfully capitalized on the World Cup opportunity through our unique customer value proposition that is led by our lowest price guarantee and Vivid Seats Rewards program. Perhaps more importantly, we met customer expectations throughout the tournament with a continued focus on operational excellence centered around a great customer experience. Customer stress levels were understandably elevated given the high price points and once-in-a-lifetime nature of World Cup matches. While the event organizers' newly implemented ticketing system introduced operational complexity, we maintained a greater than 99.7% successful fulfillment rate for World Cup orders sold through our marketplace. This achievement reflects the outstanding execution of our award-winning customer service and operations teams. As always, every purchase on our platform is backed by our 100% buyer guarantee, ensuring tickets are valid, accurate, and delivered before the event.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Although we don't expect every quarter to benefit from this same level of marquee event activity, these exceptional moments are an exciting part of the live events ecosystem. Whether it's a record-setting global concert tour, a long-awaited championship run, or a major cultural event, these demand catalysts will continue to create meaningful opportunities for our business. As we look ahead, we remain focused on building momentum across our core business, executing our long-term strategy, and preparing for other seminal events like the 2028 Olympics. At the beginning of the year, we outlined a strategy focused on delivering differentiated value propositions to buyers and sellers while returning the business to sustainable growth. We will achieve those objectives by building and expanding upon Vivid Seats' core strengths, a leading customer value proposition, industry-leading seller technology, differentiated marketplace data and insights, and operational excellence.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

As we stated previously, we are focused on optimizing our core transaction funnel and improving the customer journey. Throughout the quarter, we deployed foundational enhancements across our app and web experiences designed to streamline event discovery, reduce friction, and improve conversion. We are excited about our robust product roadmap, which spans improved personalization, event discovery, seat selection, and transactional efficiency. With continued execution of this roadmap, we believe we remain on track to return to year-over-year growth in the H2 of 2026. Shifting to the seller side of our business, we are proud that SkyBox remains the leading ERP for professional sellers. Vivid Seats has a proud history supporting the needs of sellers, and we are eagerly returning to our roots as we align with sellers and deploy new capabilities.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

To that end, we recently launched our SkyBox broker-to-broker marketplace, which is designed to enable sellers to optimize inventory across the SkyBox network with minimal friction and expense. While we only just launched this product, we are encouraged by the positive reception to its seamless integration with our SkyBox ERP. As we look ahead, our priorities remain unchanged. We are focused on enhancing the buyer experience through a unique value proposition, supporting our sellers, growing market share, improving profitability, and investing with discipline. The progress we've made thus far this year reinforces our confidence in our ability to execute our strategy and deliver long-term value creation. With that, I'll turn it over to Joe to walk through our Q2 financial results in more detail

Joseph Thomas
Joseph Thomas
CFO at Vivid Seats

Thank you, Larry, and good morning, everyone. In the Q2, we delivered sequential growth in GOV, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA, reflecting continued execution of our operational plan outlined at the beginning of the year. Q2 2026 Marketplace GOV was $659 million, compared to $612 million in Q1 2026, reflecting quarter-to-quarter growth of $47 million or 8%. Q2 2026 consolidated revenue was $130 million, compared to $126 million in Q1 2026, reflecting quarter-to-quarter growth of $4 million or 3%. Within consolidated revenue, private label revenue grew 16% quarter-to-quarter, highlighting continued growth in the channel from the start of the year. Marketplace take rate was 15.8% in Q2 2026, essentially flat to 15.9% in Q1 2026. We continue to expect take rates to remain around 16% on a consolidated basis for the remainder of fiscal year 2026.

Joseph Thomas
Joseph Thomas
CFO at Vivid Seats

Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $12.6 million, compared to $9.5 million in Q1 2026. Adjusted EBITDA grew $3.1 million or 33%, showcasing the benefit of our operating leverage on an improved GOV and revenue base led this quarter by World Cup outperformance. We ended the Q2 with $137 million in cash. Alongside this cash balance, we are pleased to announce the renewal of our revolving credit facility, which includes an extended maturity date through August 2029. This extension reflects the continued long-term support of our banking syndicate and enhances our liquidity and financial flexibility as we pursue meaningful growth in 2027 and beyond. In terms of year-end outlook, we are encouraged by our H1 results. For fiscal year 2026, we now expect Marketplace GOV in the range of $2.3 billion-$2.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $34 million-$40 million.

Joseph Thomas
Joseph Thomas
CFO at Vivid Seats

Our outlook reflects continued execution of our operational plan and financial strategy alongside our current view of industry demand trends. As Larry mentioned, our results this quarter benefited from an unprecedented World Cup. We estimate that a mid-teens percentage of our Q2 GOV was generated by the World Cup, making it a significant driver of our quarterly performance. I will now turn the call back to Larry for closing remarks.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

This quarter showcased what our platform can do when consumers have an extraordinary lineup of live events. We capitalized on the opportunity, supported our customers, and delivered strong results. At the same time, it's important to recognize that event cycles are inherently episodic. Our focus remains on growing our business and optimizing the elements we control to deliver long-term value creation. With that, operator, please open the call for questions.

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question and answer session. To ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Cameron Mansson-Perrone from Morgan Stanley. Your line is now open.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone
Cameron Mansson-Perrone
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Thanks. Morning. First, I wanted to ask just on the competitive backdrop and any color you'd be willing to provide on how that's been pacing this year, particularly through a recent period that between the NBA finals and the World Cup, we've obviously seen a lot of attractive GOV opportunity in retail. I was also hoping you could hit on take rate and how you view that as a competitive tool, particularly within these active periods. If I look back to The Eras Tour, I think take rate kind of dropped to the 15% range as you, I think, leaned into trying to capture as much of that GOV as possible. Curious, within the World Cup framework, kind of how you approach that and what your logic today is around take rate and policy going forward. Thanks.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Yeah. Thanks, Cameron. On competitive landscape, I think there has been a continuation of the trend we've spoken to in the past that relative to peak levels, we've seen some amount of moderation from our largest competitor. I think moderate or modest is probably the operative word. There continues to be substantial activity and competitive intensity from them, even though it is off of peak levels. I think this year to date, we've seen several others continue to seek to fill the gap that the largest competitor has left, particularly in performance marketing channels.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

When you roll it up, I would say it is a little bit better than it was at its worst, but it is still at what I would consider elevated levels, where it appears a priority is being placed on volume, scale, and share, relative to whatever the optimal efficient frontier would be on a profitability basis. To a degree, that ties into the answer on the take rate question. I think we've consistently seen when you have the largest events that have higher price points, there's a bit more pressure on take rate. Super Bowl's an annual example of that. World Series, to a degree, is a recurring example where these large price points have settled at an equilibrium with a lower percentage take rate, but still a healthy absolute dollar fee.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

I think in accordance, we continue to aspire to fulfill our broader ambition of delivering a unique and differentiated value proposition. As market levels move, we need to adjust accordingly. I think the World Cup, you can see it in the aggregate numbers to a degree, maybe not quite as low as the Taylor Swift dynamic, that's at least partially because there's more one-time customers in this World Cup group, so in our estimation, less lifetime value to be had. The World Cup did come in a take rate below the, call it average or the broader landscape, as we sought to compete and offer a differentiated value.

Cameron Mansson-Perrone
Cameron Mansson-Perrone
Analyst at Morgan Stanley

Got it. That's helpful. Thanks, Larry.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Dan Kurnos from Benchmark. Your line is now open.

Dan Kurnos
Dan Kurnos
Analyst at Benchmark

Great. Thanks. Good morning. Larry, maybe let me ask the World Cup question a little bit differently. Seems like you obviously had a nice boost from it, given what you guys are trying to accomplish in shifting traffic to in-app and the differentiated brand proposition, how much did that resonate? I understand your commentary on a lot of these guys are one-time, that may not be recurring, especially if they came from abroad. Just in terms of the messaging that you're trying to get out there, were you able to push that in the marketplace? Do you think it resonated? Were you able to shift incremental traffic as a result of this event? Do you think that you gained a little bit of momentum out of it?

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Yeah. I think we were pleased with the overall results. I think we outpunched our weight by a bit on our share of the World Cup volume, which is exciting. To your point, I think that implicitly indicates that we were reasonably successful in getting our message out and having folks find the value proposition in the app, or at least enough folks. I think that if everyone found it, we would have done even better. There's still a balance of proliferating that message and turning it into broad awareness and transactions. I think the second part, not only did we outpace on the share of the event that we got, couldn't be more pleased with how we delivered against that. Massive event, lot of chatter, a lot of eyeballs, a lot of stories, a lot of social media postings.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

When I look at what we delivered from a customer experience standpoint, it couldn't have gone better. On every metric, our World Cup performance was better than the average event, despite it being a higher stress, higher complexity customer experience. We need time to play out, and hopefully all those folks who had a good experience will come back. It's a good indicative example of how we see this flywheel working. If you can punch above your weight on the initial customer acquisition, deliver a differentiated customer experience, unless you do something wrong in the future, you should get more than your share of folks coming back.

Dan Kurnos
Dan Kurnos
Analyst at Benchmark

Got it. That's helpful. Then I have to ask, just on the flip side, Larry, obviously, a lot of noise coming out of D.C. Some people think that there might be some expanded state-by-state type of regulation. Just any thoughts as that begins to roll out or if you have any kind of broader, higher-level thoughts would be helpful. Thank you.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Yeah. I think there continues to be maybe a bit of elevated chatter. We've talked about Maine, we talked about Vermont, now D.C., and the natural ebbs and flows that you'll often see across the regulatory landscape. In the near term, nothing that's happened makes us think there will be a meaningful impact due to a couple of reasons. I think the jurisdictions that have made changes are on the smaller side. There's delayed implementations. Maybe more importantly, the process and the frameworks that have been used, I think leave some room for questioning. If you take D.C. specifically, they excluded primary, they excluded sports. That's an interesting starting point. Why sports and primary would be different than secondary theater shows, as an example. We'll see where those move in the future.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

When we think at the longer term, we continue to be of the view that there will inevitably be events. World Cup is the perfect quintessential example, where there are fundamentally more people who want to attend the event than there are seats. There are more people who want to sit in great seats than there are available seats. You need a mechanism to separate who are going to be the lucky folks who get to attend that event. When you have demand that outpaces supply. Across the history of economics, price-based mechanisms have been demonstrated to be the most effective pathways. They're not the only pathways, but when you start doing other pathways, you tend to create these shadow markets, back alley markets. The demand will find its level. Keeping legitimate, transparent pathways to us feels like the customer-friendly way to service this market.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

I've yet to see a compelling alternative put forward.

Dan Kurnos
Dan Kurnos
Analyst at Benchmark

Super helpful, Larry. Really appreciate it. Thank you.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Ryan Sigdahl from Craig-Hallum Capital Group. Your line is now open.

Ryan Sigdahl
Ryan Sigdahl
Analyst at Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Hey, good morning, Larry, Joe. Wanted to stay on World Cup. I think I caught it right, 99.7% fulfillment rate in the prepared remarks. That's very good. There have been a lot of public controversy, let's just say, around one of your peers, around that fulfillment rate and some of the experiences consumers had. I guess, do you think a highly publicized event like this with some of that bad publicity can change the narrative in a bigger, faster way for you guys as you guys highlight the value and user experience and fulfillment rate and everything else you guys provide? Is it much of the same that everyone forgets about it shortly after the event happens?

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Thanks, Ryan. It's a great question. The bet we are making is that in this world of increased communication, transparency, word of mouth, social media connectivity, that it will spread, right? Where your good deeds will become known. When people have positive experiences, they will tell their friends, they will recommend accordingly, especially if you're stacking good experiences. Oh, I not only got the better experience and got taken care of when something went wrong, but I also did that while getting a better price. Hopefully, that spreads. I think it would be a fair observation and statement that across the history of this industry, there have been components that have viewed it as a bit more transactional, and that makes some logical sense. It's a lower frequency category, and the feedback is not nearly as immediate, right?

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

If you have a bad experience ordering for food delivery, three days later, when you're ordering your next meal, you're going to see it in the numbers. In our instance, it can oftentimes be six, nine, 12 months later. You already have a number of folks who just structurally are not repeating. It can be tougher to, in the near term, get your head around making that proper investment. That's the bet we're making, and it is not the bet everyone's making. Only time will tell, but we believe it's the right thing to do, and that over time, it will prove to be the economically right thing to do.

Ryan Sigdahl
Ryan Sigdahl
Analyst at Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Maybe transitioning that, you have some product enhancements in the roadmap. Maybe talk through what you guys accomplished in Q2, what's coming in the back half of the year, or maybe into 2027.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Yeah. We talk about our core transaction funnel. When I say core transaction funnel, what I'm referring to is not someone who is coming to browse or explore, discover what event they want to attend, but someone who knows what they want to see. The journey is arriving at the site, finding the show they want to see, and then having a journey that delivers the best seat for them at the best value relative to their preferences, with no unnecessary friction in the process. No unnecessary friction while buying, no unnecessary friction while receiving the ticket and attending. That's been the first focus is bringing through with as little friction as possible. You'll see in real-time, we're pushing out changes on both our web and app properties. I think app's a little bit ahead of some of the web improvements.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

If you think about what are sources of friction? Well, unnecessary text on pages would be sources of friction. Unnecessary clicks, multiple steps. God forbid you click a button and it doesn't take you to the right place. A bunch of cleanup across those dimensions later in the buying process has been where we started. Where we get very excited heading into the H2 of the year is the upper funnel journey, as you're actually identifying the seat that you want to choose, where there's multiple dimensions. We all know price is part of it. The view is a part of it. The relative value is a part of it. Amenities and other features are a part of it. How can we better surface the requisite information to give customer the ultimate confidence that they're making the right purchase?

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

If you can do that effectively and efficiently, I think you'll see an uplift in conversion. On the app side, it's really about how do you create reasons to stick around and come back. We've been rolling out some upgraded onboarding. The first time you download the app, how do we have a better welcome experience? How do we create a future with many reasons to return and an ongoing engagement? It doesn't need to be daily, but if once a month you have a reason to pop in and see what Vivid Seats is offering, what perks they're giving, that's the maintenance of the relationship that when you are ready to buy, you'll come back and give us a consideration.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

We have confidence that if you give us a shot by coming to the app, we'll deliver more times than not that we have a better offering than what's out there in the market.

Ryan Sigdahl
Ryan Sigdahl
Analyst at Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Good stuff. Thanks, Larry. Good luck, guys.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Ralph Schackart from William Blair. Your line is now open.

Ralph Schackart
Ralph Schackart
Analyst at William Blair

Good morning. Thanks for taking the question. Larry, just maybe to kind of piggyback on your last response there on the app, can you maybe talk about the growth that you saw in app traffic in the quarter and just maybe more broadly remind us sort of the strategies you have there to encourage more app traffic? Maybe just an update you saw in Q2 and just your thoughts going forward to just continue to drive more traffic to the app. Thank you.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Yeah. Thanks, Ralph. We want to make sure people are aware that our app value proposition, we believe is best in class. We will generally, if not always, have lower prices available in the app than on the website. Communicating that and building awareness, it's easy to say it, harder to build ubiquitous awareness. As folks download the app, typically as part of the fulfillment journey, right? You've bought tickets to an event. You want to attend the event. You will need instructions on where to get your tickets. You'll often have questions on logistics the day of. Having the app be a clear repository of information that helps you through that fulfillment process. Then while you're going to your prior event, start to plant the seeds for why the app is the right destination for your future event.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Not just because it's better for us, but because it's better for you as the customer. You have a better value proposition, ability to engage, the ability to share information that'll enable better personalization moving forward. That's been the whole exercise. How do you create an awareness-building, welcoming funnel so that folks know that their next journey starting on the app will lead to their optimal outcome? We started that initiative Q3 of last year. We've continued to see compelling metrics across the board since we've rolled that initiative out. We've continued to see our app volume growth outpace the broader market.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

We are about to start lapping those changes, and so the bar is going up as we move into this Q3, but we've continued to innovate and push out new upgrades, optimizations, and if our bet is right, over time, you'll have folks who had a good experience in Q3 of last year, Q4 of last year, Q1 of this year, who are coming upon their next buying cycle. We should see more sessions and more orders coming through the app if we've delivered a quality experience.

Ralph Schackart
Ralph Schackart
Analyst at William Blair

Okay, great. Thanks, Larry.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Brad Erickson from RBC. Your line is now open.

Audrey Stuart
Audrey Stuart
Analyst at RBC

Hi, this is Audrey Stuart on for Brad. Your new private label partner ramped better than expected in Q1. Can you provide an update on Q2 performance for this partner and walk us through what gives you confidence in this relationship and that your rebuilt onboarding stack will enable you to add more partners from this pipeline in the near term? Thanks.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Yeah, thanks. We continue to see that partner outperform the expectations we had when they launched. I think it's important to note that these weren't necessarily expectations that were just imagined with a new entrant to the space. This was a competitive win. A partner who had a volume baseline that our platform has been able to drive a material uplift against, which I think is a testament to the both absolute and relative efficacy of our private label offering. We've continued to push a bunch of incremental upgrades throughout the year. There's more coming in the H2. A lot of them do center around how do you, as quickly as possible, bring someone online and give them the tools, features, and capabilities at their choice so they can create a bespoke experience relative to the journey they want to offer their customers.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

We have heard pretty notable shift in our customers' view of not only the pacing of our delivery but the predictability of it and what that allows them to do in terms of planning on their side. If step one is help your current customer's business thrive, if you're doing that well, eventually, that means you'll be offering a compelling opportunity for the next wave of folks. All of those leading indicators are flashing positively. We're pretty excited about having the opportunity to build a pipeline, execute against it in an automated way. The underlying data and private label is encouraging. Last thing I'd say, I think we've touched on the large private label customer loss that happened at the end of July last year.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

As we sit here today, we have now lapped that customer loss. Are excited to see private label return from, or turn from a substantial headwind into a growth driver moving forward.

Audrey Stuart
Audrey Stuart
Analyst at RBC

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Thomas Forte from Maxim Group. Your line is now open.

Thomas Forte
Thomas Forte
Analyst at Maxim Group

Great. Thanks. Larry and Joe, congrats on the quarter. I have one question, one follow-up. I'll go one at a time. Larry, lots of great questions and comments on the World Cup. I have another. The World Cup was a great example of the universal appeal of live sports and fans' passion for their teams. The Tartan Army, in particular, was epic. Can you provide your current thoughts on your international expansion efforts?

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Thanks, Tom. It was a very fun event. Lots of great memorable moments. Mine was the Viking row. I got a kick out of that. On the international front, we continue to see a lot of reasons to believe that the international opportunity is getting bigger, will continue to get bigger, and that it's untapped potential on our side. We started our journey a couple of years ago now. I think we paused some of the investment as we ended last year, entered this year to make sure that we focused sufficiently, and a lot of the upgraded core transaction funnel optimizations that we're doing for our North American business will directly benefit the international business. I think we are approaching a point in our product roadmap in the enhancement of our core transaction funnel.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Probably by the end of this year, we'll be able to return to pushing out targeted international upgrades specific to those markets, which I think we're of the belief will re-accelerate growth in international. Sitting here today, it's been a good journey where we've built a lot of GOV. We're contribution margin positive, well ahead of schedule. We've continued to see that margin grow. We've had some nice events this year with World Cup, Celine Dion. It continues to be an exciting opportunity and a vector that we're looking to deliver more against as we head into 2027.

Thomas Forte
Thomas Forte
Analyst at Maxim Group

Excellent. My follow-up's more boring, I apologize. Can you give us your current thoughts on cash conversion for 2026?

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

I think it remains pretty consistent with the framework, the results are coming in accordingly. If you look at our CapEx, interest expense, and taxes, maybe interest expense has ticked up a little bit with rate expectations, offset by our CapEx coming in a little bit lighter than it had been running as a result of some of our efficiency initiatives. You sum those up and it ends up in that kind of high $30 million-$40 million range, such that you need that level of EBITDA assuming flat GOV and then working capital growth or contraction linked to GOV growth or contraction will be the ultimate determinant. As we head into the back half, we've touched on our continued focus on returning to growth, which would put working capital as a source of cash.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

On a recurring fundamental basis, the expectation would be if we deliver that GOV growth with the EBITDA guidance that we're putting forward, that this would be a cash generative year.

Thomas Forte
Thomas Forte
Analyst at Maxim Group

Thank you, Larry.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question is from Steven McDermott from Bank of America. Your line is now open.

Steven McDermott
Steven McDermott
Analyst at Bank of America

Hi, Larry. Hi, Joe. Thank you for taking my questions. World Cup and sports are getting a lot of focus this quarter, but if you look at the other verticals, look like concert improved, theater stayed somewhat soft. I was wondering if you could just provide some color on some of the dynamics you're seeing in the other verticals. Thank you.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Yeah. Two dimensions. I'd say overall industry volumes in Q2 outside of World Cup were softer. I think there's room for speculation. Is that because there is softness or is that because the World Cup sucked some of the oxygen out of the room? I think we generally subscribe to the latter. If you are making plans and spending a significant amount of money to attend a World Cup game, it will come at the expense of some other event that you might have otherwise attended. We'll see in Q3 and Q4 as we embark on the balance of the event calendar.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

Things have been relatively quiet, a little bit softer post World Cup, but the jury, I think, is still out on the back half of the year and in particular, the Q4 on sale calendar, which will determine our ultimate levels as we finish this year and head into next. The second dimension against beyond just the aggregate industry volume is competitive intensity. We have continued to see what I would describe as increasing competitive intensity in the theater category in particular, which is interesting, especially given the nature of the competition in that slice. That's part of what you're seeing in the theater results. The other part of the theater results, that's where a lot of our Vegas performance appears, because Vegas is a theater-heavy market.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

I think if you follow the gambling operators in Vegas, you're seeing a number of folks talk about leisure travel continuing to be soft in Vegas this year, and in particular, the lower-end consumer within the leisure market. The overall Vegas stability you're seeing has been propped up by the high-end and the conference attendees. You are seeing some of that Vegas weakness come through that theater result.

Steven McDermott
Steven McDermott
Analyst at Bank of America

Got you. That helps. Thank you. Then just for AOVs, I know the World Cup certainly helped AOVs in Q2. As we think about Q3, the World Cup obviously bleeds into July a little bit. How are you thinking about AOVs within this quarter or more broadly the back half of the year? That's it. Thank you.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

It's a difficult metric to predict. I think your question highlighted why it's so difficult to predict when you have a large, high-profile event like the World Cup. I think it is reasonable to assume that even with only 19 days of it in the Q3, it will have a positive effect, and I would be surprised if AOV is not up year-over-year in Q3. When you look forward to Q4, pretty speculative, especially in Q4, where you have a lot of new concert on sales. I don't have insight into who those will be, but depending on that roster, I think you have a fairly broad range of outcomes. The other one I'd point to is World Series matchups, right? You have a bunch of that volume in October. If you have Dodgers Yankees, it's a wonderful tailwind.

Larry Fey
Larry Fey
CEO at Vivid Seats

If you have Royals Brewers, not so much. Predicting that, lot of speculation. We generally are of the view that AOVs over the long term are going to increase at inflation plus a couple of 100 basis points over time. Predicting any single year or any single quarter is a path filled with landmines.

Steven McDermott
Steven McDermott
Analyst at Bank of America

Thank you. I appreciate the color.

Operator

Thank you. One moment for our next question. Our next question comes from Maria Ripps at Canaccord. Your line is now open. Hi, Maria, would you like to ask a question? This concludes the question and answer session. Thank you for your participation in today's conference. This does conclude the program. You may now disconnect.

Executives
    • Austin Arnett
      Austin Arnett
      General Counsel and Corporate Secretary
    • Larry Fey
      Larry Fey
      CEO
    • Joseph Thomas
      Joseph Thomas
      CFO
Analysts
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