Blue Bird Q3 2026 Earnings Report

Blue Bird EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $1.28
• Consensus EPS: $1.25
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.03
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Blue Bird Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $517.16 million
• Expected Revenue: $485.73 million
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$31.43 million
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Blue Bird Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q3 2026
• Date: 8/5/2026
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Wednesday, August 5, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 4:30PM ET

Blue Bird (NASDAQ:BLBD) (NASDAQ: BLBD) is a leading manufacturer of buses and mass transportation vehicles headquartered in Fort Valley, Georgia. The company’s core business encompasses the design, engineering, and production of school buses and activity buses, with a product lineup that includes conventional (Type C) models, transit-style (Type D) models and specialty configurations for special-needs and activity transport. In recent years, Blue Bird has expanded its offerings to include zero-emission electric school buses, reflecting its commitment to advanced propulsion technologies and environmental sustainability.

Established in 1927, Blue Bird has built a legacy of safety and reliability in student transportation. Over its nearly century-long history, the company has refined its manufacturing processes and introduced innovations such as proprietary chassis designs and integrated electric drive systems. While its primary markets are the United States and Canada, Blue Bird also maintains an export network serving customers in Latin America, the Middle East and select European and Asian markets. This global reach is supported by a combination of direct sales, authorized dealers and service centers that provide parts, maintenance and technical support.

Blue Bird’s product development strategy emphasizes customization, allowing school districts and transit agencies to specify seating capacities, body lengths, fuel types and accessibility features. In addition to traditional diesel- and propane-powered models, the company offers an all-electric Vision school bus, engineered in partnership with industry suppliers to meet anticipated demand under federal and state clean-energy programs. Ongoing research and development initiatives focus on battery optimization, lightweight materials and digital vehicle diagnostics.

The company is guided by a management team and board of directors with deep expertise in the transportation and manufacturing sectors. Blue Bird continues to pursue operational efficiencies and market diversification, seeking new contracts in public transit, paratransit and private fleet segments. Through steady innovation and an established dealer network, Blue Bird aims to uphold its reputation as a trusted supplier of student and mass-transit vehicles.

Blue Bird Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Record Q3 results: Blue Bird reported $517 million in revenue, $71 million in adjusted EBITDA, and $1.28 in adjusted diluted EPS, with EBITDA exceeding guidance for the 15th consecutive quarter. Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA reached a record $172 million.
• Positive Sentiment: Management raised fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $245 million-$250 million, or approximately 14% of revenue, while maintaining revenue guidance of $1.74 billion-$1.76 billion and forecasting adjusted free cash flow of $125 million-$135 million.
• Positive Sentiment: Blue Bird will enter the approximately $1.4 billion Class 5 and 6 commercial strip-chassis market through an expanded Ford collaboration and acquisition of Detroit Chassis assets. The company expects production to begin in 2028, reach roughly 10,000 units by 2030, and generate more than $100 million in longer-term adjusted EBITDA.
• Positive Sentiment: School-bus fundamentals remain favorable, supported by an aging fleet, pent-up replacement demand, stable funding, and a backlog of approximately 4,900 units, including about 800 electric buses. Management also cited strong EV demand extending into 2027 and continued growth opportunities from the Micro Bird acquisition.
• Neutral Sentiment: The Ford chassis initiative requires approximately $90 million of Blue Bird investment in 2027, including $50 million of capital expenditures, while chassis production will take two years to ramp after its expected 2028 launch. Q3 free cash flow declined year over year because of higher working capital and finished-goods inventory, and tariff volatility remains an ongoing risk despite management’s expectation of a margin-neutral outcome.

Presentation

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us and welcome to Blue Bird's fiscal 2026 third quarter earnings. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. I will now hand the conference over to Mark Benfield, Blue Bird's Head of Investor Relations. Mark, please go ahead.

[Mark Benfield, Head of Investor Relations at Blue Bird]

Thank you. Welcome to Blue Bird's fiscal 2026 third quarter earnings conference call. The audio for our call is webcast live on blue-bird.com under the investor relations tab. You can access supporting slides on our website by clicking on the presentations box on the IR landing page. Our comments today include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks that could cause actual results to be materially different. Those risks include, among others, matters we have noted on the following two slides and our filings with the SEC. Blue Bird disclaims any obligation to update the information in this call. This afternoon, you will hear from Blue Bird's president and CEO, John Wyskiel, and CFO, Razvan Radulescu. We'll take some questions. Let's get started. John?

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Thanks, Mark. Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for joining us today. It's an exciting day today as we're going to share our strong fiscal 2026 third quarter financial results and the continued significant progress we've made with our long-term strategy, including a very special announcement we made late this afternoon. Results for Q3 were once again very strong. The Blue Bird team delivered outstanding sales and Adjusted EBITDA, beating guidance for the 15th consecutive quarter. Razvan will take you through the details of our financial results shortly. Let's turn to slide six, where I will talk to some of the key takeaways for the quarter. First, Blue Bird beat guidance on all metrics for the quarter. Again, we continue to manage the volatility associated with the administration's policy on tariffs well.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Backlog for the quarter ended at 4,900 units inclusive of Micro Bird and just under 3,600 units for Type C and D. Operationally, metrics are pointing in the right direction. The team has been able to execute on a day-to-day basis while simultaneously working on our long-term strategy. In terms of pricing, we remain extremely disciplined. Bus prices remain higher than the previous year and the previous quarter. As I continue to communicate, this process is just how we manage the business. In the All Power segment, our dominance continues. Our EV backlog is just under 800 units, and we have a strong EV order book into 2027. All Power is a segment we created over 15 years ago. We are a pioneer in EV. Our propane powertrains have the lowest total cost of operation, and our gas variant continues to be a market leader.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

With increased diesel prices at the pump, we believe Alt Power is a great long-term play. We continue to maintain our lead position. Finally, we continue to manage the impact of the administration's executive orders and tariff volatility. We are fortunate to be well-positioned to navigate this situation to a margin neutral outcome. As I've said on every earnings call, it is our objective to position this business to be a strong long-term investment. Let's turn the page and take a closer look at the financial and key business highlights for the quarter on slide seven. We sold 3,525 buses in Q3 and recorded revenue of $517 million, $119 million above last year. On the EV side, we sold over 350 electric vehicles, 10% of unit volume, and our long-term outlook for EVs remains optimistic.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter came in at $71 million, $13 million stronger than last year, and adjusted free cash flow came in at $28 million. Razvan will talk more about this and our outlook later in this call. Turning to the right side of the page, I'll touch on a few points. As discussed earlier, our backlog finished at a solid 4,900 units combined. As you know, backlog is a function of orders and production. Orders for the industry were up 7% on a trailing 12-month basis, and Blue Bird's order intake was up 9% for the same period. We feel good about our position in the school bus market. I continue to reiterate the overall market fundamentals are still strong. The fleet is aging, we are coming into a heavy replacement cycle, and there's been industry supply issues the last few years, leaving pent-up demand.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

The midterm horizon continues to look very good for school bus volumes. Year-over-year selling prices for buses was up almost $10,000. Of course, this also includes increased tariff recovery as part of our margin neutral tariff strategy. With tariffs excluded, pricing was still up year-over-year, and parts sales totaled $25.5 million for the quarter. Alt-powered Blue Bird buses represented a strong 54% unit sales mix for the quarter. Our powertrain strategy is a differentiator in the market and allows us to maintain stronger margins. For the quarter, we had 355 EVs booked and 776 EVs in our order backlog pushing into 2027. Again, we remain optimistic on EVs in the school bus sector. EVs are a perfect fit for school buses when you look at the duty cycle, available charging intervals, range and the proven health benefits for our children.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Rounds two and three of the EPA Clean School Bus program remain intact, with funds flowing to our end customers. The EPA has invited comments for 2026 funding, solidifying rounds four and five for the program, consistent with what we have been communicating. We should understand very soon how and when the EPA will administer these funds. Overall, when you look at state funding and fleet EV mandates, we believe this market will remain relevant. In the quarter, we closed on the Micro Bird transaction. This transaction brings us consolidated revenue with the Type A school bus and future growth in the commercial shuttle bus segment. It also brings us technology with the Ecotuned integrated EV platform. This transaction represents our strategic commitment for growth outside of the school bus segment and putting the balance sheet to work. Finally, I have another exciting item to report.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

We made a very big move in the chassis market. Let's turn to slide eight, where I will talk about the exciting news we released earlier today. Our expanded collaboration into the Class five and six chassis market with Ford Motor Company and our asset purchase of Detroit Chassis LLC's Detroit Assembly Plant. Under the agreement, Blue Bird will assume design, manufacturing, and sales responsibility for the next generation F-53, F-59 commercial strip chassis. Additionally, Ford will supply to us its medium-duty, next generation Ford powertrain as part of this agreement. Finally, Ford and Blue Bird intend to collaborate on the seamless customer transfer of fleet, RV, and specialty body manufacturers. This collaboration with Ford will run through the end of 2033 with the extension opportunity into 2036.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

As part of this significant market entry, Blue Bird will also acquire Detroit Assembly Plant assets of Detroit Chassis LLC, the current contract assembler for the F-53, F-59 chassis. Detroit Chassis brings workforce, leadership, equipment, while Blue Bird brings the overall design and business enterprise expertise to support this overall arrangement. The purchase is anticipated to close in calendar Q1 2027, shortly after the current chassis ends production. Production of our new chassis is expected to start in calendar Q1 2028. For Blue Bird, this arrangement and transaction focuses on the strategic value proposition of growth, technology, and collaboration. First, it expands Blue Bird's total addressable market by $1.4 billion in a largely two-player market in both commercial delivery and RV segments. The Ford-powered gas chassis is a competitive and dominant offering in this space. The collaboration will propel our market position in the strip chassis segment.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Second, this new chassis design will have considerable technical read across into our new bus design. We also see that this chassis design will be scalable and facilitate expansion into other product offerings. This technical approach will support even further growth down the road. Lastly, our collaborative approach with Ford will support an orderly transition with customers, enabling ease of entry into the market and mitigating risk. Overall, this is a very exciting announcement and is an important part of our strategy for the company. As I said earlier, it brings tremendous opportunity for growth, technology, and collaboration. It positions us to be a growing player in the specialty vehicle market. It has certainly been another busy quarter with strong results and a very exciting announcement.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

I'd now like to hand it over to Razvan to walk through our fiscal 2026 third quarter financial results, as well as our full year updated guidance in more detail. Razvan?

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Thanks, John, and good afternoon. It's my pleasure to share with you the financial highlights from Blue Bird's fiscal 2026 third quarter and year-to-date record results. The quarter end is based on a close date of June 27, 2026, whereas the prior year was based on a close date of June 28, 2025. We will file the 10-Q today, August 5, after market close. Our 10-Q includes additional material and disclosures regarding our business and financial performance. We encourage you to read the 10-Q and the important disclosures that it contains. The appendix attached to today's presentation includes reconciliations of differences between GAAP and non-GAAP measures mentioned on this call, as well as other important disclaimers. Slide 10 is a summary of the fiscal 2026 third quarter and year-to-date record financial results.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Please note that fiscal 2026 Q3 is the first quarter in which we are consolidating the Micro Bird results following our acquisition of the remaining 50% of the joint venture, which transaction closed on April 1, 2026. It was a strong operating quarter for our company, a great continuation after the first half of the fiscal year. We beat our consolidated guidance provided in the last earnings call on all metrics. In fact, we delivered the best Q3 profit ever for Blue Bird, with $71 million in Adjusted EBITDA. The team pushed hard and continued doing a fantastic job and generated 3,525 unit sales volume, which includes 1,235 Micro Bird units. The Blue Bird unit sales were 7% below prior year level, driven by a relatively large number of GSA and fleet units in finished goods.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

As a result, Q3 consolidated net revenue of $517 million was only $119 million higher than prior year, to which Micro Bird consolidation contributed approximately $123 million. Adjusted EBITDA was a Q3 record $71 million, $13 million higher than prior year, and it includes the consolidation effect of Micro Bird of $8 million. The adjusted free cash flow was a solid Q3 of $28 million and $24 million lower than the prior year, driven by a seasonal increase in working capital and finished goods inventory for GSA and fleet. Our liquidity position at the end of this quarter was strong at $259 million, and this is after the Micro Bird acquisition and paying down all their debt at close. The year-to-date results, including the consolidated Q3 for Micro Bird, are equally impressive.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

While units sold of 7,808 buses were above prior year by 916 units, the revenue grew 12% to $1.2 billion, with record Adjusted EBITDA of $172 million or $19 million above prior year. Free cash flow was also very strong at $100 million or $7 million above prior year's level. Moving on to slide 11, our backlog continues to be solid at approximately 4,900 units, including approximately 1,300 Micro Bird units and a total of approximately 800 EVs. Many of the EVs are already scheduled to be built and delivered in fiscal year 2027. Let's break now the Q3 revenue of $517 million into three components. First, the Blue Bird Bus net revenue was $369 million, down 1% versus prior year due to higher finished goods inventory for GSA and fleet. However, our average Blue Bird Bus revenue per unit increased by $10,000.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Blue Bird EV sales in Q3 were 300 units or 29 units higher than last year. Second, parts revenue for the quarter was almost flat at a strong $25 million. Third, this quarter, we are consolidating Micro Bird revenue for the first time, and they contributed $123 million to our results with 55 EV units sold. Gross margin for the quarter was a strong 20% or 160 basis points lower than last year due to Micro Bird consolidation, which drove 180 basis points reduction. Adjusted EBITDA of $71 million was higher compared with prior year by $13 million, of which the Micro Bird consolidation impact was $8 million. Adjusted EBITDA in percentage was mathematically compressed year-over-year due to the consolidation of 100% of the Micro Bird revenue in Q3 while adding only 50% incremental Adjusted EBITDA after the joint venture acquisition.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Excluding the Micro Bird consolidation effect, the percentage actually went up from 14.7% to a record Q3 of 16.1%. In fiscal 2026 Q3, Adjusted net income was a record Q3 of $45 million or $6 million higher than last year, with half of the delta coming from the Micro Bird consolidation. Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.28 was up $0.09 versus the prior year. Slide 12 shows the walk from fiscal 2025 Q3 Adjusted EBITDA to the fiscal 2026 Q3 result before and after the Micro Bird consolidation. Starting on the left at $58.5 million, the impact of the bus segment gross profit in total was $0.7 million, split between volume and pricing effects, net of material cost increases of $6.2 million and year-over-year healthcare cost increases, lower overhead absorption, and higher freight and costs totaling -$5.5 million.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

The parts segment gross profit was almost flat, as well as our fixed costs and other income, other expenses. However, the Micro Bird results improved year-over-year, shown here in the previous 50% joint venture format. The above-mentioned developments drive our pre-consolidation record fiscal 2026 Q3 Adjusted EBITDA results of $63.6 million or 16.1%. The Micro Bird 50% joint venture consolidation added an additional $7.8 million for a total reported Adjusted EBITDA of $71.4 million or 13.8%. Moving on to slide 13, we ended the quarter with $117 million in cash and reduced our debt by $5 million over the last year. This is after completing the Micro Bird acquisition during this quarter and paying down all their debt at close. Despite this, our liquidity remains strong at $259 million at the end of fiscal 2026 Q3.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

The operating cash flow was solid for Q3 at $31 million, driven by great operational execution and margins, partially offset by increases in working capital and finished goods inventory for GSA and fleet. On slide 14, we want to share with you our updated fiscal 2026 forecast. Looking at our record Q3 results, we have beaten again our guidance this past quarter, so we had a very strong fiscal year to date. We continue to forecast a strong Q4 at approximately 14% Adjusted EBITDA margins, despite a small reduction in units sold versus the previous forecast. We are guiding total year revenue to the same midpoint and with a range of $1.74 billion-$1.76 billion. Given our beat in Q3, we are raising our guidance for Adjusted EBITDA to $247 million or approximately 14%, with a range of $245 million-$250 million. Moving to slide 15.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

In summary, we are forecasting an improvement year-over-year to a new record with revenue up to approximately $1.75 billion. Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $245 million-$250 million or 14%, and adjusted free cash flow of $125 million-$135 million, in line with our typical target of approximately 50% of Adjusted EBITDA. After accounting for the extraordinary CapEx of up to $5 million with our 50% fiscal 2026 portion of the new plant investment funded by a reconfirmed DOE MASP grant, which is currently proceeding with the permitting phase. Moving on to slide 16. We wanted to remind you of our medium and long-term outlook after the Micro Bird acquisition. Medium-term outlook was a $275 million Adjusted EBITDA or 13.5%. Our long-term target was to generate EBITDA of $325 million-$375 million plus or 14%-15% plus. Moving on to slide 17.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

As John mentioned before, we announced earlier today that we have expanded our collaboration with Ford into the commercial strip chassis gas-powered segment. Starting in 2028, the next generation of the F-53, F-59 chassis will be designed, manufactured, and commercialized by Blue Bird with Ford powertrain. This expands our addressable market into the core of the last mile delivery segment, as well as Class A RV segment. It represents an investment in 2027 of approximately $90 million for Blue Bird, of which $50 million is CapEx. The manufacturing will begin in early 2028 in the current Detroit assembly plant of Detroit Chassis LLC, which Blue Bird will acquire in 2027 in an asset deal after the end of production of the existing F-53 and F-59 products.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

This new segment is expected to grow for us to a level of approximately 10,000 units in 2030 and generate longer-term Adjusted EBITDA of $100 million plus or 14%-15%. This collaboration replaces, in the first step, our previous planned entry into this segment with a 10 times higher potential. We are very excited about this opportunity as a further step on our profitable growth strategy. Moving on to slide 18, you can see our updated medium and long-term outlook post-Ford collaboration expansion. Starting with the short-term outlook, the pro forma results for 2026 and 2027, including a full year of Micro Bird consolidation, indicate approximately $2 billion in revenue and approximately $260 million of Adjusted EBITDA or 13%.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

This is before the non-capitalized portion of the Blue Bird chassis investment from the expanded Ford collaboration, as well as exciting new product investments currently in the early stages of planning. We will provide full year and quarterly guidance for fiscal 2027 in the next earnings call. In terms of capital allocation, we intend to refinance and expand our credit facility by the end of calendar year 2026 and maintain a leverage ratio under two times Adjusted EBITDA. We continue to be opportunistic in share buybacks with approximately $90 million remaining on the existing program. Moving to the right in time, what used to be our low and long-term target of $2.3 billion in revenue move now closer into midterm with $300 million plus in Adjusted EBITDA.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

The long-term outlook is raised now to approximately $3 billion in revenue and $400 million to $500 million plus in Adjusted EBITDA, or 14.5%-15% plus. This is what we call profitable growth. We continue to be incredibly excited about Blue Bird's future, and now I will turn it back over to John.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Thank you, Razvan. Let's move on to slide 20. I want to take this opportunity to remind everyone of our long-term strategy, which consists of four elements and positions the company for the future. First, as an almost 100-year-old company, business continuity and long-term stability is a core element. This includes investing and updating our manufacturing facilities and products. A great example is our new assembly plant, which is planned to start production in late calendar year 2028 and our commitment to a highly competitive new bus design. Infrastructure and competitive products are an essential part of our plan. The next element is the theme that has been consistent in the last few years, profitable growth. The school bus market is projected to grow over the next few years, and our new plant will allow us to capitalize on that.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

For Blue Bird, it also means expanding our total addressable market by entering new adjacencies. The Blue Bird commercial strip chassis we announced today and the Micro Bird Buy America shuttle bus are great examples. Margin expansion is the next element. This area focuses on advancing competitiveness and cost reduction. For Blue Bird, this means continuing our Industry 3.0 automation initiative. As well, the new plant will allow for further factory of the future opportunities, including Industry 4.0 initiatives. The last area is putting the balance sheet to work. The Micro Bird acquisition and the Detroit Chassis asset purchase are great examples of this and support our safe and accretive approach in this area. Even after these transactions, Blue Bird continues to have a pristine balance sheet, strong liquidity, and solid cash flows. This will allow us to continue to be strategically opportunistic.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Overall, we have a balanced strategy that positions the company for the future and delivers value to our shareholders. Let's turn to slide 21. The fundamentals for the school bus segment remain strong, as shown on the left side of the page. We are moving into the replacement cycle for the high-volume period between 2017 and 2019. We know there is pent-up demand remaining from the COVID period, and there are still over 250,000 buses over 10 years old. Funding remains stable for this market. All of this contributes to a strong ACT outlook of approximately 6% CAGR over the next several years. With the addition of Micro Bird earlier this year, we now get the consolidation benefit of Type A school bus and the growth associated with entering the Buy America commercial shuttle bus market, as shown on the right side of the page.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Adding today's big announcement for the commercial chassis market, these combined moves increase our total addressable market by 150% on units and over 85% on dollars from just one year ago. These transactions represent our commitment to our strategy as we reshape Blue Bird from a pioneer in the school bus industry to a growing player in the specialty vehicle market. I will wrap it up on slide 22. This great company and iconic brand is almost 100 years old. It has stood the test of time and is positioned for the future. We delivered outstanding results again in the third quarter of 2026. We continue to demonstrate credibility by delivering on our targets. We are excited about the Micro Bird acquisition made earlier this year and extremely excited about the Ford collaboration and Detroit Chassis LLC asset acquisition announced today.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

These are significant components of our long-term strategy and will position us to be a growing player in the specialty vehicle market. Looking ahead, our strategy, discipline, and demonstrated execution will set this company up for the future and deliver value to our shareholders. As always, I want to thank our employees, our dealer network, our supply partners, and of course, our investors. All are critical for our success. I remain excited about Blue Bird, and we continue to deliver great results and make significant progress in our longer-term strategy. This company is a great American story with such a rich history and an exciting future ahead. Thank you. That concludes our formal presentation for today, and I would like to now hand it back to our moderator for the Q&A session.

[Operator]

We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star one again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. The first question comes from the line of Eric Stine with Craig-Hallum. Your line is open.

[Eric Stine, Analyst at Craig-Hallum]

Hi, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Eric. Hi, Eric.

[Eric Stine, Analyst at Craig-Hallum]

Hey. Would love to start with the Ford agreement. Certainly makes a lot of sense what you're doing, but just want to make sure I understand it. Did you say that this kind of becomes your primary path forward? Or should we view this in addition to the fact that you've got excess chassis capacity in Fort Valley, and that you're going on two paths?

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Hi, Eric. It's John Wyskiel. For sure. It's our primary path. There's a lot of engineering work here to get through, and this one we look at this as a real solid agreement as we get to break into a market and catapult into it with cooperation with Ford. We're excited.

[Eric Stine, Analyst at Craig-Hallum]

Got it. In terms of that excess chassis capacity that you have, is there something that you're, and maybe this is TBD, but that you're thinking about that can be utilized for? Because I know that has long been viewed as kind of an unrealized asset that could be put to work.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

We'll see down the road. Right now, there's no immediate need with what we've done with Detroit Chassis, of course, purchasing their assets. Down the road, there's some geography that could come into play, but again, it's not the immediate play we'll make.

[Eric Stine, Analyst at Craig-Hallum]

Just on the follow-up, it starts in fiscal 2028, and I know that you talked about in fiscal 2030 that you're thinking 10,000 units, a little under half the addressable market. Should we think about that as a bit of a ramp from the start to that 10,000? I guess you just talked about thinking you may hit the ground running.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Hi, Eric. This is Razvan. The SOP is in the middle of the fiscal 2028, thereabout. 2028 is a partial year as a ramp-up, and then 2029, we also consider it as a ramp-up year. As you know us, we are conservative. To the extent that we can accelerate the path to 10,000, we will. At this point, we want to show a ramp to the 10,000 level, and there is upside potential longer term above this 10,000 for sure.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Just another comment, Eric. I think you know this is largely a two-player market. We view that favorably, obviously, coming into this.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

The F-53/F-59 was hugely successful in this marketplace. Us having the opportunity to take it over, we think is a great opportunity.

[Eric Stine, Analyst at Craig-Hallum]

Yep. Got it. Okay. Thank you very much.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Thanks.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Michael Shlisky with D.A. Davidson. Your line is now open.

[Michael Shlisky, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

Yes. Hi. Thank you, and congratulations. To follow up on those last questions you there about Ford's stripped chassis production. Over the last 10 years, they've actually averaged over 15,000 a year. You're only saying 12,000 as maybe what would be a full production in your slide here. I guess, is it just being conservative or have you heard of any fleets that have switched over, for example, Amazon going to the EV that they work on with Rivian or other folks just not using as many as they did? Is this just, we'll see how it goes, but 12,000 is at least a large step of the way to full production?

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Hi, Mike. This is Razvan. Yes, we are conservative. There is room for higher numbers. At this point, we want to have a conservative business case also for entering into the market, and we have to execute on it, grow it. As you know also, there is some cyclicality into this market. When you look at the RV business, that can have its ups and downs. Also based on the large fleet acquisitions on the last mile delivery, we can also have some cyclicality. Look at this as our base case with upside potential from here.

[Michael Shlisky, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

Okay, great. You also mentioned that they'll be wrapping up production in the first part, very early 2027, it sounds like. Over the last bunch of quarters, they've been making a ton of these vehicles. They ramped up like 5x to what they were making at the trough of the cycle. Once the deal is completed, I'm guessing that between now and then they're going to build a ton more of these, and that they can sell off them during the time when they stop making them and you're starting to ramp up. If I'm wrong, correct me there. I guess once they stop producing them, who will be in charge of selling that inventory down through the 2028, 2029 ramp-up of the new model? Are you, as part of the purchase price or part of the purchase, buying all that inventory?

[Michael Shlisky, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

Is that going to be all still held by Ford until they're down to zero?

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Yeah. No. Hey, Mike, I'll clarify a couple of points. The current F-53, F-59 will be managed by Ford Motor Company. They'll handle all of that. They're going to work with Detroit Chassis LLC on the build-out. They'll have the inventory. They'll manage everything. We won't be involved with any of that part of the transaction. Where we step in is with the new design, with the new engine that'll come out. The new engine comes out, of course, next year. The chassis will come out with the new engine in 2028. We're stepping in post-Ford exiting and Ford will have all the responsibility with the current design.

[Michael Shlisky, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

Just so I'm clear, the next-gen product, will it be roughly the same dimensions, just a different engine and roughly the same layout? Will you have to do a lot of collaboration with the upfitters? Also, will you be able to do propane in this facility that comes from the Ford/ROUSH system as well?

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Yeah, great question. First part of the question. Yeah, similar dimensions, obviously the same space, Class 5 and 6. Don't anticipate any changes there. For sure, there won't be any changes there. There will be, of course, some integration changes with this because you have to accommodate the new engine. It's got a wider bank for wider cool jackets, et cetera. There'll be things that we'll do, obviously, to accommodate the new powertrain. There'll be a level of carryover as well of the current chassis. As far as propane, initially, we're going to get into gas. That's the whole announcement, really, is working with Ford and with, of course, the acquisition of Detroit putting in the gas chassis or redesigning and launching the new gas chassis. Down the road, we'll see what we do with propane. For sure, there's an opportunity there.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

We have a great history with ROUSH, as well ROUSH and Ford and Blue Bird have worked together on the current propane. For sure, it's a great opportunity down the road.

[Michael Shlisky, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

Okay. I'll hop back in the queue. Thank you.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Thanks, Mike.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Chris Pierce with Needham. Chris, your line is open. Please go ahead.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Hey, guys. How you doing tonight? Can we just shift back to the school bus market for a second? I guess I just want to understand, or I guess, what are you hearing from distributors? What are distributors hearing from customers as you enter the fourth quarter giving where gas prices are with, I think you'd quoted Blue Bird units down 7% in the third quarter. I want to make sure that was the school bus also.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Yeah. Hi, Chris. This is Razvan. The year-over-year volumes were down, and this is because we had a relatively high number of finished goods inventory. In Q3, we'll build a large number of GSA and fleet units. This takes a longer time until their revenue recognized. We build the units, but they will be rev rec'd during Q4. Also we will build some more of this in Q4, which will bleed into fiscal 2027. That's the 7% year-over-year explanation. In terms of the general backlog, our backlog is fairly stable. We are solid into Q4 right now, and obviously we are taking orders for next year at this point.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Okay, perfect. I think in the press release, I don't see a price paid for the transaction. I saw you referenced an asset swap on the call. I don't want to think about dilution-

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

No

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

the picture, this asset or cash.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

It's in the 8-K. The asset acquisition is $7 million with cash. There is no dilution.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Okay. You're acquiring the manufacturing facility for $7 million?

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Yes.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

The assets.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

The assets. Yes, in Detroit.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Okay. can you just talk about-

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Our other exchange with Ford directly in terms of the entering the segment.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Okay, perfect. Thank you.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

The collaboration agreement is not an M&A transaction.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

To your point, Chris.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Perfect. Thank you.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

it is a pretty low-cost entry into the space.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

In terms of M&A perspective.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Yes

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

it's a $90 million investment.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Correct.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Understood. under $100 million at this point in time, it looks like, for something that could generate $70 million in Adjusted EBITDA in 2030 based on slide 19.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Correct

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

17.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

That's right. You got it.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Can you just, last for me, just talk about it being a two-player market. How should we think about, is it similar to the school bus market where you've got sort of a very warm handoff to customer orders? I'm just thinking of what could go wrong or what I'm not thinking about, some sort of unknown. I'm assuming the end customer doesn't technically care what chassis they have, they just want their vehicle. I just want to make sure I'm thinking about the market correctly.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Look, it's a two-player market. I think you know Ford's history in this space. They've been very successful with the gas chassis. On the RV side in particular, I think they practically own the market in this space. The carryover, we think is a great opportunity. Now, the other part of this agreement is we will work with Ford Pro on continuity of the customer base. That's with the fleets, the body builders, the RV manufacturers, all of that. Ford and Blue Bird will work hand in hand. We think that mitigates risk. We also think it gives us a great opportunity coming into the market and not having a lag. We think from our perspective, It's a lot of risk mitigated, and really, I think should catapult us into this space pretty well.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

That was actually trying to squeeze your way in with your own chassis, is that fair to say? This is a pivot?

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Oh, apologies.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Fire alarm went off.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

We've got a little bit of noise in the back. Even the fire alarms are excited about this transaction. Look, we were working on our chassis, but simultaneously, we were working with Ford on this opportunity. When things started to heat up and got a lot closer, of course, we took the Ford path to bring this to market.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Chris, as I said in my remarks, this is a 10 times bigger opportunity to enter the segment. We had to pivot, take this one, and then we will come back to the propane and also EV later on as the market develops that way as well.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

I get it. Okay. That makes sense. That all makes sense. Thank you for the detail and good luck with all of this.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Of course.

[Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham]

Talked to you a little bit. Thank you.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Yeah. Thanks, Chris.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Ben Summers with U.S. Bancorp. Ben, your line is now open.

[Ben Summers, Managing Director at U.S. Bancorp]

Hey, good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions, and congrats on all the progress. Just curious, you guys mentioned some read across or read throughs to the bus market. Just curious on where you see that and potentially any more color on the synergies you potentially expect with the new Ford collaboration.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Yeah, for sure. I'll talk a little bit about that. I think one of the areas for sure that'll be an opportunity for read across will be the E/E architecture. Then you also get things like ADAS that will read across. There's going to be likely legislation in the school bus market down the road in the near future for ADAS as well. We see those things as read across. Additionally, we see, in terms of the scalability, some real opportunities there. We're in the position where right now we're redesigning next generation bus. We're redesigning or designing this current chassis. I think that brings almost like building blocks of opportunities down the road that we can scale this thing into other vehicle opportunities or other body opportunities. I think lots of exciting things down the road. First step is launch, of course.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

We've got to get this gas chassis to market, but good things to come down the road for sure.

[Ben Summers, Managing Director at U.S. Bancorp]

Super helpful. Back to the school bus market. I think in the past you guys have said something around like 3,000 to 4,000 units in the backlog is kind of that sweet spot. I know if we net out the Micro Bird units in the backlog, that's kind of where we sit today. I guess kind of curious about how we think about that target backlog range now with Micro Bird integrated into the platform?

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Definitely we have to look at both of them combined. For Micro Bird, the backlog between 1,000 to 1,500 units, it's something that we like to see. Their backlog is a lot more seasonal than our bus backlog has been for the last couple of years. As we work together, we will determine the desired levels of backlog based on seasonality. Right now, for the Type C and D, our backlog is fairly stable. It's around 3,500 units or so. We like to keep it that way. For us, the lower end is about 3,000, which is the point where it could get a bit more challenging to work with the supply chain on lead times. You have to remember, we worked pre-COVID with 1,500 units backlog, or under 2,000.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

It can be done, it's just a matter of setting the appropriate supply chain expectations right as well. Overall, we feel good about our backlog, and we are executing now in Q4 and working to bring this fiscal year to a strong end.

[Ben Summers, Managing Director at U.S. Bancorp]

Super helpful. Thank you for taking my questions.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Of course.

[Operator]

The next question comes from the line of Michael Shlisky with D.A. Davidson. Mike, your line is open.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Mike, we like that you can't get enough of this announcement, which we really appreciate.

[Michael Shlisky, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

There's two topics here. There's the Ford, and there's also the core of Blue Bird. I wanted to ask a couple questions here about the core of Blue Bird business. I guess, first a little bit more about the $10,000 average ASP increase in the Blue Bird C and D business. How much of that was mix of EV? How much of it was just inflation? How much of it was features and other things? Just a little more detail there.

[Razvan Radulescu, CFO at Blue Bird]

Yeah. The majority is year-over-year price increases. There are some increased tariff recovery elements in that, and there is also a bit of EV mix. Those are the three main elements. We're not going to split them up in more details right now.

[Michael Shlisky, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

Okay. Fair enough. I know it's only August here, and orders don't even really heat up for well over a quarter, if not more than that. Any thoughts what you're hearing from your major dealers or large school districts about their plans to buy buses in the coming school year?

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Yeah. We're coming into our business planning process now, we're looking at the order book for next year. Look, a couple things remain the same. The fundamentals are all there. You have an aging fleet. Over 250,000 of these buses are greater than 10 years old. We're coming into a replacement cycle. The average volume between 2017 and 2019 was 36,000 units a year. Those buses are coming up for replacement. During the COVID period, there was pent-up demand. I think from our perspective, when we look at that, we have great fundamentals there, and the funding is still there as well from property taxes. Overall, I think coming into the business plan and as we start to prepare for next year, we believe things should be fairly solid coming into the next season.

[Michael Shlisky, Analyst at D.A. Davidson]

Okay. I will leave it there. Thank you so much.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Thanks, Michael Shlisky.

[Operator]

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to John Wyskiel for closing remarks.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

Thanks, Piercy. Thanks to each of you for joining us on the call today. Just a quick announcement before I wrap up. Earlier today, we were notified by the Georgia Chamber of Commerce that Blue Bird's Vision electric school bus won the Coolest Thing Made in Georgia contest. The Coolest Thing Made in Georgia contest is a program designed to celebrate and showcase the great state of Georgia's outstanding innovation and craftsmanship. Blue Bird is a pioneer and a leader in the EV space, and I think this award is a recognition of the amazing work and success of the team. Congratulations to the entire Blue Bird team. Back to the wrap-up. Blue Bird has delivered great results for Q3 2026, beating expectations and raising our guidance.

[John Wyskiel, President and CEO at Blue Bird]

We also continue to deliver exciting announcements on new opportunities like the Micro Bird acquisition and the Ford commercial stripped chassis collaboration announced today. With the fundamentals of the industry and the key elements of our strategy, I remain enthusiastic for Blue Bird and its future. We look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter. Should you have any follow-up questions, please do not hesitate to contact our Head of Investor Relations, Mark Benfield. Blue Bird continues to be stronger than ever and has an amazing future ahead as we approach our 100-year anniversary next year. Thanks again from all of us at Blue Bird. Have a great evening.

[Operator]

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Mark Benfield, Head of Investor Relations
• John Wyskiel, President and CEO
• Razvan Radulescu, CFO

Analysts

• Eric Stine, Analyst at Craig-Hallum
• Michael Shlisky, Analyst at D.A. Davidson
• Chris Pierce, Analyst at Needham
• Ben Summers, Managing Director at U.S. Bancorp