Triple Flag Precious Metals Q2 2026 Earnings Report

Triple Flag Precious Metals EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $0.39
• Consensus EPS: $0.33
• Beat/Miss: Beat by +$0.06
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A

Triple Flag Precious Metals Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $129.20 million
• Expected Revenue: $129.20 million
• Beat/Miss: Met Expectations
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

Triple Flag Precious Metals Announcement Details

• Quarter: Q2 2026
• Date: 8/5/2026
• Time: After Market Closes
• Conference Call Date: Thursday, August 6, 2026
• Conference Call Time: 9:00AM ET

Triple Flag Precious Metals (NYSE:TFPM) is a Toronto-based precious metals streaming and royalty company traded on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker TFPM. The company specializes in providing upfront financing to mining operators in exchange for the right to purchase a fixed percentage of future gold and silver production at discounted prices. By structuring these streaming and royalty agreements, Triple Flag Precious Metals aims to optimize its capital deployment and maintain a predictable cost profile while benefitting from upside in precious metal prices.

Since its formation in mid-2022, Triple Flag Precious Metals has established a diversified portfolio of streaming and royalty assets across a variety of jurisdictions. The company’s agreements span operators in North and South America, Europe, Africa and Australia, with exposure to both development-stage and producing mines. Its strategy focuses on partnering with established mining companies and emerging explorers to secure precious metal streams on projects that demonstrate robust reserve bases, solid permitting frameworks and attractive operating margins.

Triple Flag Precious Metals’ portfolio is concentrated in gold and silver, but it has flexibility to pursue streams on other precious or strategic metals should opportunities arise. The business model is designed to generate sustainable cash flows by locking in long-term precious metal delivery commitments at pre-agreed prices, thereby insulating the company from certain operational and cost risks inherent in mining. This structure also aligns Triple Flag’s interests with those of its streaming and royalty partners, as it shares in the benefits of resource expansion and continued reserve conversion.

The company is governed by a board and management team with extensive experience in mining finance, royalties and operational due diligence. Through disciplined deal sourcing and rigorous technical evaluation, Triple Flag Precious Metals seeks to build a growing portfolio that delivers attractive risk-adjusted returns over commodity cycles. With a conservative capital structure and a focus on long-lived, low-cost assets, the firm targets predictable distributions and value accretion for its shareholders.

Triple Flag Precious Metals Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Strong second-quarter performance: Triple Flag sold 28.7 thousand GEOs, generated $117 million in adjusted EBITDA, and increased operating cash flow per share 42% year over year to $0.54.
• Positive Sentiment: The company raised 2026 GEO guidance to 100,000–110,000 ounces and its 2030 outlook to 150,000–160,000 GEOs, supported by the Ravenswood stream acquisition, Hope Bay’s construction approval, and growth projects at Northparkes and Arthur.
• Positive Sentiment: Triple Flag completed its $440 million Ravenswood gold-stream acquisition, with deliveries beginning in July and production expected to ramp toward more than 200,000 ounces annually by 2028; management also cited more than $1.1 billion of available liquidity for additional deals.
• Positive Sentiment: Shareholder returns remain a priority, with the dividend increased for the fifth consecutive year to an annualized $0.24 per share and $20 million of shares repurchased during the quarter.
• Neutral Sentiment: Near-term delivery growth will include ramp-up factors at Ravenswood, while the Cerro Lindo stream has reached a previously anticipated step-down; management said the asset remains a major contributor and emphasized that longer-term growth depends on development studies and future investment decisions.

Presentation

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. My name is Angela, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Triple Flag Precious Metals second quarter 2026 conference call. I would like to remind everyone that this call is being recorded and that all lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star followed by one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and enter the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, press star one again. Thank you. I would now like to turn the call over to Mr. Sheldon Vanderkooy, Chief Executive Officer and Director. Please go ahead.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thank you, Angela. Thank you for joining us to discuss Triple Flag's second quarter 2026 results. With me on the call this morning are Eban Bari, our Chief Financial Officer, and James Dendle, our Chief Operating Officer. This quarter marks a milestone for our company. Triple Flag is entering its second decade. We are doing so with the strongest organic growth profile in our history and a clear track record of compounding shareholder value. H1 was the strongest 6 months in the history of our company. Q2 was another strong quarter. We sold nearly 29,000 GEOs. We generated $117 million of adjusted EBITDA. We delivered operating cash flow per share of $0.54, up from $0.38 in Q2 of last year. This represents 42% growth in cash flow per share with our high margin, top-line exposure to gold and silver prices translating directly into per-share cash flow.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

June was a milestone month for Triple Flag. In the span of two weeks, we announced three important developments. First, we reached a settlement agreement with Steppe Gold that fully resolves all our outstanding disputes. We received all obligations and arrears on signing. We have secured guaranteed gold deliveries over the next 10 years, along with long-term exposure to production from the ATO mine. We initially invested $28 million in Steppe and have already received over $60 million of returns to date, in addition to the over 34,000 ounces of gold to be delivered over the next 10 years. Second, we announced and closed the acquisition of a $440 million gold stream on the Ravenswood Gold Mine in Queensland, Australia. This is a cornerstone addition to our portfolio that delivers immediate cash flow from a large-scale, long-life, low-cost operation, with first deliveries received in July of this year.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Third, on the strength of these two developments, we increased our 2026 GEO guidance to 100,000-110,000 ounces and raised our 2030 outlook to 150,000-160,000 GEOs. Q2 was also a fantastic quarter for demonstrating the organic growth driven by mine development and mine life extension. In May, Agnico Eagle announced a positive construction decision at Hope Bay, a milestone that we have pointed to for several quarters and one that firmly anchors our growth beyond 2030 outlook. At Northparkes, the E48 sublevel cave is ramping up. Its growth plans continue to advance, including a mill expansion study to 10 million tons per annum. At Arthur, feasibility work and drilling are underway on a world-class greenfield deposit following the pre-feas released earlier this year. Finally, an important part of our capital allocation strategy remains returns to shareholders.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

We are pleased to announce our fifth consecutive annual increase of our dividend since we listed in 2021, which now equates to an annualized dividend of $0.24 per share. Additionally, we repurchased $20 million of shares in the open market during the quarter, taking advantage of the opportunity presented by the markets. I will now turn it over to Eban to discuss our financial results for Q2 2026.

[Eban Bari, CFO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thank you, Sheldon. As Sheldon highlighted, we had a very strong quarter, with portfolio producing 28.7 thousand GEOs, resulting in the first half of nearly 59,000 GEOs. This puts Triple Flag on track to achieve our increased 2026 guide. Across the chart, adjusted EPS were up 62%, adjusted EBITDA was up 54%, and most importantly, cash flow per share was up 42% year-over-year. Operating cash flow per share is the metric that most directly compounds to shareholders over time, and our strong margins ensure that higher metal prices flow directly through to our shareholders. This strong cash flow generation continues to support all our capital allocation priorities. We view a progressively growing dividend as a core part of our capital allocation strategy and one that's sustainable across all metal prices. Our dividend has now been increased to $0.24 on an annualized basis, up 4% from prior dividends.

[Eban Bari, CFO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

I'm proud that we've increased our dividend every year since our IPO. On buybacks, we have said that we view our shares as being undervalued, we acted on that view this quarter, repurchasing $20 million worth of shares in the open market. The NCIB remains an active part of our shareholder return strategy, we will continue to be opportunistic. Lastly, I would like to comment on our balance sheet. Despite deploying $440 million on Ravenswood acquisition, $20 million on share buybacks in our normal first dividend. We exited the quarter with over $1.1 billion of available liquidity. We funded Ravenswood with cash on hand and drawings from our revolving credit facility, given the cash-generating power of our business with over $100 million worth of operating cash flow this quarter alone, we expect to repay this facility rapidly during 2027 based on current metal prices.

[Eban Bari, CFO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Overall, a strong balance sheet, robust operating cash flows, and total liquidity over $1.1 billion gives us the capital to continue deploying dollars into creative opportunities to drive future growth for the benefit of our shareholders. With that, I will turn it over to James to walk you through Ravenswood, Hope Bay, and our growth pipeline.

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thank you, Eban. Starting with Ravenswood, where we hold a 5.5% gold stream. The mine is Queensland's largest gold mine and a top 10 Australian gold mine by ore reserves. There are several attributes we particularly like about this transaction. First, this is a producing, proven operation. Ravenswood has been in continuous production since 1987 and has produced four million ounces of gold since discovery. Upstream generates cash flow immediately, with the first deliveries having commenced in Q3. Second, the asset offers attractive scale to mine life and costs. The expansion completed in 2023 supports growth in annual production to more than 200,000 ounces, with the operation ramping towards that level by 2028 while sitting in the lower half of the global cost curve. Third, the mineral endowment is extensive, the exploration is compelling.

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Since 2020, roughly 800,000 ounces of reserve additions have outpaced 600,000 ounces of depletion, with multiple in-pit and near mine targets adjacent to the Buck Reef West and Sarsfield known pits. Turning to Hope Bay. We hold a 1% NSR royalty on this Agnico Eagle project in Nunavut. In late May, Agnico Eagle announced a positive construction decision. Their company study contemplates 6,000 tons a day underground operation, producing 400,000-435,000 ounces of gold per year over an initial 11-year life mine. First production is expected in 2030. What makes Hope Bay particularly exciting is what the initial plan leaves out. The 11-year mine life incorporates only about half of the declared mineral resource, 55% of the measured and indicated and 48% of the inferred.

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Beyond that, Agnico has over 90 regional targets across a highly prospective 80 km greenstone belt with 700,000 meters of drilling planned over the next five years. This includes drilling at the Boston deposit, which is not included in the PEA and is located 50 km south of the current deposit. Hope Bay has the potential to develop into a multi-decade district scale mining camp. Agnico's decades of proven Arctic operating experience and established logistics routes make them the ideal operator to realize its potential. Finally, I want to discuss some of the assets that will drive further growth beyond our 2030 outlook. This should provide a clear view to our shareholders of what will become core paying assets for Triple Flag. Arthur, Kemess, Hope Bay, and Northparkes are world-class, long-life assets located in established mining jurisdictions.

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

At Arthur, a pre-feasibility study was released in February, forming the basis of permitting to commence in 2027. The current nine-year life of mine is the beginning of a much longer life. AngloGold has described the study as the top of the iceberg, noting that Arthur is a marquee asset that will anchor AngloGold's portfolio into the 2050s. At Kemess, Triple Flag holds a 100% silver stream. The 2026 PEA supports a large-scale copper, gold, silver operation, reaching production by 2031, leveraging existing brownfield infrastructure and permits from previous mining operations. The PEA mine plan represents only 47% of the total resource tons, providing upside for further ounces to be included in an upcoming PFS in mid-2027. As I mentioned, we expect Kemess to commence production in 2030 with a ramp-up thereafter. Finally, Northparkes is Triple Flag's largest asset.

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Numerous growth projects have recently been approved by Evolution Mining, which will unlock value from world-class copper and gold endowments that include the E22 Block Cave, the E44 gold open pit, with minimum delivery guarantees, and most importantly, a potential mill expansion to at least 10 million tons per annum, the latter two of which are currently being studied over the next year. We believe that the mill expansion is the optimal path to unlock value from not only the 625 million tons of total current resources, but other prospective underexplored targets that could materially add to the production profile with increased scale and processing optionality. Taken together, these four assets are diversified across long-life district scale systems in Nevada, British Columbia, Nunavut, and Australia, and they are all operated by high-quality counterparties, representing the foundation for further organic growth beyond 2030. I will now pass it back to Shel.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thank you, James.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Our business model generates shareholder value through reinvesting our robust cash flows into accretive additions to the portfolio. In the past 18 months, since the start of 2025, we have deployed over $900 million into new high-quality streams and royalties. Tres Quebradas, Arcata and Azuca, Arthur, Minera Florida, the Johnson Camp and Gunnison royalties, the Northparkes E44 stream, and now Ravenswood. These are all high-quality assets operated by high-quality operating teams. The bulk of this capital has been deployed in Australia and the U.S. We have deployed on attractive returns for our shareholders. Triple Flag shareholders will benefit from these portfolio additions for decades to come. I would like to close by stepping back and looking at what Triple Flag has created over its first decade. A portfolio of 242 streams and royalties, 36 of them producing, with peer-leading exposure to Australia. We remain firmly focused on generating shareholder value.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

We have increased our GEO production every year since our 2016 founding. We have increased our dividend every year since our 2021 IPO. We are active buyers of our own shares, and management and the board remain founders and substantial owners of the company. Looking forward, the picture is even stronger. We had a strong first half, with robust growth in operating cash flow per share, and we delivered $550 million of transactions that will benefit our shareholders for decades to come. Our increased guidance calls for 100,000-110,000 GEOs this year, growing to 150,000-160,000 GEOs in 2030 from a de-risked pipeline that James just walked you through. Finally, we have over $1.1 billion of available liquidity to continue pursuing accretive opportunities over the remainder of the year and beyond. That concludes our prepared remarks. Operator, please open the floor to questions.

[Operator]

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and enter the queue. If you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star one again. If you are called upon to ask your question and are listening via loudspeaker on your device, please pick up your handset and ensure that your phone is not on mute when asking your question. Your first question comes from the line of Cosmos Chiu with CIBC. Your line is now open.

[Cosmos Chiu, Analyst at CIBC]

Hi. Thanks, Sheldon, Eban, and James. Congrats on a strong first half. Maybe my first question is on Northparkes. James, you kind of touched on it, the E44 development study is expected by the end of June 2027. Still some time away, is there any kind of progress or any kind of updates at least on that study that you can provide to us?

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah, Cosmos, I obviously can't get too far ahead on the studies, but I think it's important to highlight there's a number of things happening at Northpark. Evolution has recently approved a coarse particle flotation project and debottlenecking in the processing plant that opened up capacity. The two big milestones or developments in conjunction with that are, one, the development of the E22 Block Cave, which is the next kind of frontier of mining at Northpark, in conjunction with the expansion of the mill. The base expansion of the mill is 10 million tons, but it could be higher than that, and that's precisely what Evolution's studying at the moment. That work's ongoing. There's been capital allocated towards those studies. We look forward to seeing the results of that next year. E44 is relatively straightforward from a study point of view.

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

It's a reasonably well-defined open pit that really requires ore mining and then treatment in conjunction with the other ore feeds. The study element of that is quite straightforward. I think the focal point for us will be seeing how big of an expansion is done at the mill, next year.

[Cosmos Chiu, Analyst at CIBC]

Great. That's great to hear. Maybe sticking with Australia, Ravenswood, good to see the first monthly delivery was received in July 2026. Can I take it that, Q3 is going to be a normal sort of quarter, or is there still some kind of ramp-up factors that we should be aware of? As you mentioned during the acquisition presentation, a normal quarter will be 2,300-3,300 GEOs per quarter. Again, is Q3 going to be a normal quarter, or is there any factors that we should still consider?

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah, look, it will be ramping up because there are capital projects going on to open up the Sarsfield open pits. Then that scales up towards the 200,000 oz plus run rates after 2028. During that period, it'll be relatively normal, but there's a ramping profile for that asset.

[Cosmos Chiu, Analyst at CIBC]

Okay. Maybe switching gears a little bit. Cerro Lindo, it's been a great asset for Triple Flag, but now there's been a step down that happened in April. Cerro Lindo is one of your larger silver streams. I guess my question is, with that sort of coming down and a bit of a decrease in silver, at least contribution-wise, are you still happy, Sheldon, with your gold, silver, copper, and other mix as it stands today?

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah. Thanks, Cos. Bottom line is we are happy. We're a precious metals company, and we're always looking for high-quality gold, high-quality silver exposure, and we think we have that in spades We long anticipated the Cerro Lindo step down and, as you pointed out, hitting the step down is a sign of success. Cerro Lindo remains a very substantial asset for Triple Flag going forward. It's still going to be one of our largest contributors. There are no further step downs after this. Cerro Lindo is even looking at putting new capital into that project, so that's great. We benefit from that. In terms of silver exposure over the longer term, we have Cerro Lindo, we have Buriticá. We actually get quite a bit of silver out of Northparkes, so that's fantastic.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

We have things like Arcata and Azuca, which are silver, and we've highlighted Kemess as well. That's silver exposure as well. There's still a lot of silver in the portfolio.

[Cosmos Chiu, Analyst at CIBC]

Great. Maybe one last question, likely for Eban. Going through your income statement, I noticed that taxes were fairly low, slightly over $1 million. G&A was also fairly low, $3.8 million, whereas first half totaled closer to $10 million. A decrease from Q1. I guess, Eban, what's a sustainable rate here? Is this representative of what we can expect for the remainder of the year?

[Eban Bari, CFO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thanks for the question. Our G&A largely was impacted by mark-to-market on our share price, has a pretty significant impact on the DSUs, RSU, and so forth. Our run rate is essentially based on what we had guided to the market, which is about 30-32. On a quarterly basis, assuming all things being equal, we expect $78 million worth of G&A for the quarter. With respect to tax being lower, it's a combination of tax benefits due to the share price decreases. You get a benefit, as well as mark-to-market on some of our prepay. These are our recoveries, essentially, but our cash taxes remain pretty consistent.

[Cosmos Chiu, Analyst at CIBC]

It's kind of funny, Eban, talking about the benefits because the share price decreased. For you, I hope that you pay more taxes because that means the share price is going up. Again, those are all the questions I have. Thanks for answering all my questions and congrats again on a very strong first half.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thanks, Cos.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Josh Wolfson with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is now open.

[Josh Wolfson, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Yeah, thank you very much. Just sort of two quick ones. First question is on Prieska. It sounds like the operator there is moving forward towards construction commencement. How should we think about the stream option? I guess also, when could we expect that to be exercised, if it's exercised, and what would be the timelines for funding? Thank you.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah, Josh, I can answer that. It's worth just remembering that when we entered into the stream transaction, the development plan was the deeper part of the ore body. There's an upper zone and a deeper zone, and the deeper zone is the lion's share of the economics, probably over 95% of the value. The stream is predicated on getting the deeper zone into production. The company has subsequently reorientated the development of the asset, do it in a more of a staged manner, which actually is a very appropriate way of developing an asset for a developing company. All that to say, we still have the right, but not obligation, to fund the stream. The asset looks great. Glencore has come in with a very considerable financing to get them off the ground, our focus is still on the deeps.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

When the company moves towards an investment decision on the deeps, which we expect next year, we'll look to do our evaluation and presumably invest the stream at that time. All the signs we have at the moment are great. The economics of our stream are very robust, and I think having a supportive capital provider alongside us in Glencore is a good endorsement of the project and provides ample capital to get the project up and running and fully develop the deep zone as well.

[Josh Wolfson, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Okay, thanks. Tres Quebradas, I know it's a pretty small contributor today. The release talks about phase 2. Is there any goalpost that can be provided in terms of what production could look like when it's expanded?

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

There's been numerous expansion options there, Josh. The phase two essentially doubles, but there's an opportunity to triple it from current levels. It has not been fully determined as to how large the production rate goes. There are opportunities to take it even beyond the tripling of current levels. Our investment case is predicated on the mine running at the current nameplate of about 20,000 tons. Anything beyond that is great upside for us.

[Josh Wolfson, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets]

Great. Those are all my questions. Thank you.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thanks, Josh.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Fahad Tariq with Jefferies. Your line is now open.

[Fahad Tariq, Analyst at Jefferies]

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. I wanted to come back to Ravenswood. In the second half of the year, can you just remind us if that's factored into the 2026 guidance? I think I may have missed this, is it fair to assume the low end of the quarterly deliveries at 2,300 oz per quarter in the third and fourth quarter of this year? Thanks.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Hi, Fahad. It's Sheldon. I'll answer that. We've updated our guidance to say we're looking at the top half of our updated guidance, the top half of that 100-110, that does include the Ravenswood stream as well.

[Fahad Tariq, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay, got it. Maybe just switching gears, one for Eban. On the balance sheet, I noticed the cash balance obviously came down just because of the transaction and the buybacks. Can you just remind us minimum cash balance that the company typically targets going forward?

[Eban Bari, CFO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah. Fahad, thanks. We're a business that we don't really need a whole lot of money to maintain the business. We generally try and limit how much cash we own on the balance sheet, just given we've got a facility that's drawn. For us, about $10 million, $15 million is probably the frame number.

[Fahad Tariq, Analyst at Jefferies]

Okay, sounds good. That's it for me. Thank you.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thanks, Fahad.

[Operator]

Your next question comes from the line of Tanya Jakusconek with Scotiabank. Your line is now open.

[Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Oh, great. Good morning, everybody. Thank you so much for taking my questions. Maybe just to finish off on the outlook for the second half of the year, just that Cerro Lindo stepped down, so that's occurring. We've got then Ravenswood Production starting to contribute. How should we think the rest of the year with respect to Q3 and Q4? Originally, it had been that the first half was supposed to be higher than the second half, how should I be thinking about the second half in Q3 and Q4?

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah. Hi, Tanya. This is Sheldon. Obviously, you have our H1 to date, and we have our full year guidance. If you're looking for the split between Q3 and Q4, there's no real big differences we're seeing between the quarters. Again, we don't give quarterly guidance, so it's really the annual guidance and working towards that annual figure we give in the market.

[Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank]

No, it's just more with Q3 and Q4, if there's not that much difference, fair enough. Maybe my next question, if I could, was to come back to James when you talked about those four key assets beyond 2030. You can quickly do the math on Hope Bay and Arthur Gold and see that contribution. As you think about beyond 2030, you've got that 150,000-160,000 GEOs. Are we looking with the remaining two getting closer to 200,000? Is it something in the 20,000-50,000 oz range that these additional ounces will contribute?

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah. Obviously, Tanya, in defining the outlook, we're focused on the assets that we think have a clear line of sight to contributing in that timeframe. There are other development stage projects that are earlier and are at study level and need a few things to happen before they could contribute. They certainly have studies that could show contributions that would build above the outlook range. We're always reluctant to include those in our outlook until we gain confidence. I think one of the other big variables is Northparkes. There's a lot of potential to add incremental gold to Northparkes, particularly given the increased processing capacity and the way that Evolution is looking at gold-only mineralization of that property. Beyond E44, we don't have a great line of sight on that right now because there's still work to be done.

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Look, I think E44 will certainly continue far beyond the minimum deliveries. The life of that pit is likely at least double or triple the minimum delivery quanta. I'm very confident there are further gold discoveries to be made. I think if you're looking to Northparkes, there's some unexpected additions to that profile. As we see projects become more solid from a permitting and a capital provision perspective, we'll add those to the profile, too. We'd expect that to stack on top of the numbers we've shared.

[Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Yeah. I was just really interested, James, in these four, what could these four contribute?

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Well, yeah. You could put the studies together, Tanya, I think that there's probably quite a bit more that Arthur could contribute beyond the PFS. I think Hope Bay has a great deal of potential over and above the 400,000-435,000. I think in the mid-2030s, that could be a much bigger number. I think Kemess could go for longer, the annual outputs are probably fairly fixed by the study. I really think it's Arthur and Hope Bay that have the greatest potential to grow annual production above the numbers we have in front of us today.

[Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Yeah. That's about 15,000 GEOs. I don't know what the other two would contribute. Sorry. I was just. Greater than 15,000. Okay. My next question comes back to just, maybe, Eban, how should I think about the capital returns from your share buyback versus your dividend? You've bought back that, I think it was at $20 million this quarter. Should I be thinking that if we were to stay in this share price range, that you will continue the share buyback?

[Eban Bari, CFO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah. Tanya, thanks for the question. We just raised our dividend. NCIB is part of our broader capital allocation strategy, and we look at that along with deals that we're working towards and moving down the pipeline. We'll be active on the market opportunistically, and we'll step in when we see value. That's pretty much it. We've got a program in place, and we'll exercise discretion as we see fit.

[Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Okay. I guess my final question is just on the transaction environment. Maybe just kind of review if anything in that has changed. We talked about it last quarter. It was in the $100 million-$500 million range. It was mainly in asset builds and maybe some third-party royalty transactions. Where are we on this now? Has anything changed? Has the structure of some of the deals changed? Anything for us to be aware of?

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Hi, Tanya. It's Sheldon. I'll take that one. Really, it's remarkably the same. You've seen how much we've managed to deploy over the last 18 months, and I would say the pipeline right now seems as robust as it's ever been. That transaction range that you cited, I think is still pretty accurate, that $100 million-$500 million. We're also seeing some transactions that would even be larger than that. Also comments on jurisdictions. I'd say generally what we're seeing are jurisdictions that shareholders would generally be comfortable with. Anyway, we're still active. The corp dev team is busy and we're going to see what we can do.

[Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Sheldon, are they mainly in gold, or are you seeing some silver transactions as well?

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

It's really a mix of metals, including, I'd say predominantly gold. There's some silver as well. There's probably some non-precious that might be attractive as well, but the bulk of what we're looking at really falls into that precious metals. Again, right down the fairway of what our shareholders really are looking for.

[Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Sheldon, you said non-precious as well. Is that something like you're looking at beyond gold and silver and non-precious?

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah. We have a long list of things we look at. There are some non-precious, and we've done that before, right? Like Tres Quebradas has been a fantastic investment for us. We'll look at that on a very opportunistic basis. We're never going to take the portfolio away from being like a 90% gold and silver portfolio.

[Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank]

Okay. All right. Thank you so much for taking my questions, and good luck.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thanks, Tanya.

[Operator]

Again, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and enter the queue. Your next question comes from the line of Brian MacArthur with Raymond James. Your line is now open.

[Brian MacArthur, Analyst at Raymond James]

Hi. Good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Most of them have been answered. Can I just ask about Impala? You got $10.5 million this quarter. I'm not as familiar with that asset, but it's changed over the last number of years. That's up significant versus any other time period, and gold price is down over Q1. Is that a normal run rate going forward? Has something changed there, or was there a catch-up, or how should I think about that going forward?

[Eban Bari, CFO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Brian, thanks. I'll take that question. Typically, Impala has been pretty consistent on a quarter-over-quarter. I think what you're probably seeing this quarter is one of the last deliveries slipped into Q2 from Q1. That's probably why Q2 is a little bit higher than the prior quarters. Typically, they're pretty consistent in terms of quantum of the deliveries.

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

More generally, though, Brian, you can expect to see slightly higher deliveries coming out of the Styldrift mining area in the next year or two. The company's been very public about increasing the output of that mine, not hugely, but there is an uptick from the current levels expected.

[Brian MacArthur, Analyst at Raymond James]

Right. If I was sort of just to look at, divide by two over the six months and have a bit of a ramp and adjust for the gold price is how I should think about it?

[James Dendle, COO at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Yeah, that's reasonable assumption.

[Brian MacArthur, Analyst at Raymond James]

Great. Thank you very much.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thanks, Brian.

[Operator]

That concludes our question and answer session. I will now turn the conference back over to Mr. Sheldon Vanderkooy for closing remarks.

[Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director at Triple Flag Precious Metals]

Thank you, Angela. Thanks everyone for dialing into our call. We've had a very strong start to the year, and we're looking forward to continuing the performance over the back half of the year. Thank you all for attending. Bye.

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.

Participants

Executives

• Sheldon Vanderkooy, CEO and Director
• Eban Bari, CFO
• James Dendle, COO

Analysts

• Cosmos Chiu, Analyst at CIBC
• Josh Wolfson, Analyst at RBC Capital Markets
• Fahad Tariq, Analyst at Jefferies
• Tanya Jakusconek, Analyst at Scotiabank
• Brian MacArthur, Analyst at Raymond James