Aemetis Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Q2 revenue increased 20% year over year to $62.7 million, while adjusted EBITDA improved to $9.7 million from negative $5.8 million and net loss narrowed to $9.4 million. Results benefited from higher ethanol and RNG volumes, improved ethanol pricing, lower corn costs, and $8.6 million of Section 45Z credits.
  • Positive Sentiment: Aemetis expects its mechanical vapor recompression project, targeted for completion by year-end 2026, to generate approximately $32 million in annual cash flow through lower natural-gas costs and higher 45Z and LCFS credit values. Upgraded corn-oil separation units are also expected to roughly double corn-oil production from first-quarter levels.
  • Positive Sentiment: The company has seven approved California LCFS pathways for dairy RNG at an average carbon-intensity score of negative 380, with six additional pathways pending. Management said these approvals, along with potential federal 45Z emissions-rate revisions, could materially increase revenue from existing RNG production.
  • Positive Sentiment: Aemetis began shipping under a new India biodiesel tender after receiving allocations of more than 18 million liters from three government-owned oil companies, representing approximately $17 million of expected revenue. Higher Indian diesel prices are also creating opportunities to expand sales to private commercial customers.
  • Negative Sentiment: Liquidity remains constrained, with only $1 million of cash at quarter-end and substantial current debt. Management plans to use expected 45Z proceeds and other cash inflows to pay down debt and refinance remaining balances, but the timing and value of federal credit revisions remain uncertain.
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Earnings Conference Call
Aemetis Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

Hello, welcome to the Aemetis second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Joining us today are Eric McAfee, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Todd Waltz, Chief Financial Officer, and Andy Foster, President of Aemetis Advanced Fuels. I will now turn the call over to Mr. Todd Waltz.

Todd Waltz
Todd Waltz
CFO at Aemetis

Thank you, welcome everyone. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that during the call, we'll make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve risk and uncertainty that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied. Please refer to our earnings release and SEC filings for a discussion of these risks. For the second quarter of 2026, revenue grew 20% to $62.7 million, compared to $52.2 million in the second quarter of 2025, with growth in both the California ethanol and dairy renewable natural gas operating segments. biodiesel revenue relied upon sales from private customers. The three India Oil Marketing Company customers issued about $17 million of allocations to our India subsidiary in late July, allowing us to begin biodiesel shipments under this new tender.

Todd Waltz
Todd Waltz
CFO at Aemetis

Operating income improved by $16.4 million to $5.8 million in Q2 2026, compared with an operating loss of $10.7 million for the second quarter of 2025. Net loss improved by $14 million to $9.4 million, compared to $23.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. Adjusted EBITDA increased by $15.5 million to $9.7 million in the second quarter of 2026, compared with a -$5.8 million in the second quarter of 2025. The reconciliation of Adjusted EBITDA to net loss is described in our earnings release issued today. An important new revenue component should be noted. Section 45Z credits contributed $8.6 million, $2.2 million in dairy renewable natural gas, and $6.4 million in California ethanol.

Todd Waltz
Todd Waltz
CFO at Aemetis

Excluding 45Z credits entirely, Q2 gross profit of $13.8 million still improved by more than $8 million year-over-year, driven by lower price corn, $6.07 a bushel versus $6.42 a bushel, a 12% increase in ethanol volume, ethanol pricing up 9%, and a significant 38% increase in RNG volume. Cash at the end of the quarter was $1 million. On July 9th, we announced that we received $17.6 million in net cash proceeds from the sale of Section 45Z credits. Capital investments supporting our energy efficiency projects and investments in biogas production were $8.6 million in the quarter, and $15.1 million for the first half. With that overview, I'll turn the call over to Eric.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Thank you, Todd. Let's highlight three key takeaways from the second quarter. First, Q2 continues the financial inflection points we noted during the last earnings call. We grew consolidated revenue 20% year-over-year, posted an improvement in operating income of $16.4 million, and increased adjusted EBITDA by $15.5 million compared to the second quarter of 2025. Second, we benefited from the California Air Resources Board approval a year ago of seven new Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways for our Renewable Natural Gas business at an average carbon intensity score of -380, compared with the -150 default carbon intensity score for these digesters shown in Q2 2025 revenue. The approval of seven biogas digesters has been providing additional revenue at the higher LCFS value each quarter since Q3 2025, and six additional biogas digester pathways are nearing approval.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

These LCFS pathway approvals substantially expand the LCFS credit generation per MMBtu of RNG produced and will continue to drive meaningful revenue increases as we scale production. Third, our capital projects are advancing. Let's review these projects and how we continue to create value as federal and state laws are being implemented. In our dairy Renewable Natural Gas business, every MMBtu of dairy RNG generates four revenue streams: the natural gas molecule, a California Low Carbon Fuel Standard credit that is sold to oil companies, a federal D3 RIN that is sold to oil companies, and a Section 45Z Production Tax Credit. The LCFS credit and the 45Z tax credit are calculated using the carbon intensity of our biofuel. Credits are generated in proportion to how far below the standard a biofuel is scored.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

An LCFS pathway at -380 generates substantially more credit per MMBtu than the -150 default score. We have seven approved LCFS pathways averaging -380, with six more in the CARB process. For the 45Z Production Tax Credit, the credits we sold in July were valued at $15.20 per MMBtu at a -42 emissions rate. An emissions rate which generates significantly less revenue than required under the One Big Beautiful Bill. We anticipate that the Department of Energy will correct this oversight with an updated emissions rate that more accurately reflects the carbon reductions created by the Renewable Natural Gas that we produce. As dairy Renewable Natural Gas volume grows, all four revenue streams grow.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

The approval of LCFS pathways in California and a correct emissions rate issued by the Department of Energy are expected to create significant increases in revenues from the same level of Renewable Natural Gas production. We are waiting for the six pending digesters to be approved under the California LCFS and the corrected 45Z emissions rate to be implemented by the Department of Energy so we can generate Renewable Natural Gas revenues that are consistent with existing laws in California and at the federal level. Congress and the California legislature already passed the underlying laws that allow for these improvements. We now need the carbon pathways and the 45Z calculations to be implemented to generate the full amount of revenues from our RNG production.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

We operate 12 biogas digesters today, taking waste from 15 dairies and transporting biogas through a 36 m pipeline to our RNG production facility that is connected to utility gas pipeline. We have more than 50 dairies under contract. Two more methane capture digesters are scheduled to be completed within a month, and we have received 10 of the 15 cleanup and compression units that will be located at the next 15 digesters to come online. Regarding our California ethanol business, we had a good quarter and have two projects that are slated to significantly improve our financial performance, in addition to the expected reduction in corn emission rates that will increase 45Z revenues. Our mechanical vapor recompression system installation is an energy efficiency project that is expected to add approximately $32 million in annual cash flow from three positive impacts on our operations.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

We will reduce about 80% of the natural gas needed for our operations at the Keyes Ethanol Plant, which is a direct cost reduction that begins at commissioning. Removing fossil gas lowers the carbon intensity of our ethanol, which raises the value of the 45Z credit and LCFS credits generated by every gallon of ethanol. The MVR project is making excellent progress. The key equipment arrived in June, including six 3,500 horsepower turbo fans, and the final large component arrived on site this week. Foundation concrete was poured in the past week, and the system is expected to be operational by the end of 2026. The MVR project has received approximately $19.7 million in grants and Section 48C tax credits from the California Energy Commission, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, and the IRS. Second, we are installing upgraded corn oil separation units.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Distillers corn oil is recovered from the ethanol process and sold as a low-carbon feedstock into the renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel markets, where demand has strengthened this year with higher federal renewable volume obligations. We have two of the three corn oil extraction units in operation, with a third scheduled for later this fall. Combined, the units are expected to approximately double corn oil production compared to our first quarter production rate. Our India biofuels business is shipping biodiesel to Oil Marketing Companies and to private customers. Biodiesel revenue was $2.5 million in the quarter, down sequentially, as the Oil Marketing Companies worked through their tender process that concluded in late July. On August fourth, we announced allocations to supply more than 18 million liters to India's three government-owned Oil Marketing Companies over a three-month period, which is expected to generate approximately $17 million in revenue.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Deliveries under the tender allocation are underway. We are also expecting to increase supply to private commercial customers due to increases in the price of India petroleum diesel this year. India's stated goal is to raise biodiesel blending from 1% today to 5% by 2030, which would create about 1.2 billion gallons of annual biodiesel consumption. We continue to prepare documentation for a potential public offering of a minority stake in Universal Biofuels, subject to market conditions.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Our outlook on milestones and timing includes two dairy digesters completing within a month, the third corn oil unit operational later this fall, doubling corn oil production over Q1 2026, MVR operational at the ethanol plant by the end of 2026, six additional Low Carbon Fuel Standard pathways moving through CARB with the customary look back on approval, dairy RNG and corn ethanol feedstock 45ZCF-GREET updates from the Department of Energy, generating significant increases in Renewable Natural Gas and ethanol revenues. Lastly, India deliveries across the current allocation period with additional orders anticipated before year-end. Thank you to our shareholders, analysts, and partners for your continued support. Operators, let's take some questions.

Operator

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, at this time, we'll be conducting our question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypads. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue, and you may press star two if you wish to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment please while we pause for questions. Thank you. Our first question today is coming from Derrick Whitfield with Texas Capital. Your line is live.

Derrick Whitfield
Derrick Whitfield
Analyst at Texas Capital

Good morning, Eric and team.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Hello, Derrick.

Derrick Whitfield
Derrick Whitfield
Analyst at Texas Capital

Wanted to start on 45Z. Given the likely positive revision you'll receive in your CI score when the PER is finalized in November policy, do you have a sense of the amount of uplift you'll receive and the potential catch-up value for past molecules that have been processed under existing policy?

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

We have three different 45Z updates we're expecting, two of which we have high confidence in, the third of which we have moderate level confidence in. The first is the Renewable Natural Gas calculation. A month ago, it was determined it was yet to be determined. That number in California, converted into kilograms, would be about a -420 under the federal 45Z calculator. We're currently at -42. We do not have good clarity on where we're going to land between -42 and -420. Can't give a whole lot of guidance on that, and, unfortunately, the Department of Energy has not been really open about their process either. The calculator is currently generating about $15.20. We have posted on our presentation showing that we could earn over $75 per MMBtu at a -375. The range is rather wide about what we should see per MMBtu.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

In ethanol, the corn emission rate improvement would be anywhere from $6 million-$24 million of actual net cash improvement. That range is more defined because of the USDA calculator. What is not defined yet is exactly what periods it'll apply to. Treasury guidance has shown it would start January 1, 2025. If it does, then we'll have about an 18-month look back at a one-time recapture of that year and a half. We share a portion of that with other parties involved with calculating the emissions rate and the farmers, of course. The annual impact will be probably in the $6 million-$12 million per year, but with a one-time catch-up in the emissions rate. The last and third 45Z update is CO2 reuse. We currently reuse all of our CO2.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

We produce roughly 150,000+ tons a year of CO2, we have a facility that's operated by the Messer company of Germany. We currently do not get any 45Z calculation value for that. Under 45Q, the reuse of CO2 generates value, under 45Z, currently it does not, and we're working to fix that. The economic value of that would be somewhere probably in the $12 million-$15 million a year range as we optimize CO2. Lastly, I'll just mention this, the MVR will generate a significant amount of additional 45Z revenue by decreasing our natural gas use by 80%.

Derrick Whitfield
Derrick Whitfield
Analyst at Texas Capital

Great update and very detailed. Wanted to shift over to California LCFS with my follow-up. Wanted to get your thoughts on the recovery of Low Carbon Fuel Standard credits just based on what we saw last week in the 1Q CARB report and also the proliferation of LCFS markets that we're seeing, and we're increasingly seeing some of your competitors sell into the CFR market as well. Would love your thoughts on how to expect the recovery of LCFS credit prices.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Andy, do you want to talk about CFR?

Andy Foster
Andy Foster
President of Advanced Fuels at Aemetis

Yeah, just briefly that we're going through the process of qualifying for CFR. As you know, Derrick, it's about a nine-month process to get registered and all the rest. We're seeing significantly better values for the gas sold to Canada. Obviously that's an appealing market and as more companies start to do that, obviously that'll probably normalize some of the values that we're seeing. We are actively underway and going through the registration process in Canada.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

The California LCFS, predictably, is in deficit. What I think the market is learning is that as renewable diesel capacity increases, you have two constraints on generating more LCFS credits. First constraint is that there's only a certain amount of low-carbon feedstock in the market. Tallow, UCO, Distillers Corn Oil is very limited, you can double your renewable diesel capacity, you're not doubling the number of LCFS credits when more soybeans and canola is used as the number of gallons increased. The second very real constraint is that over 80% of the diesel in California, about a 4 billion gallon market, is already renewable diesel. If you look back over the last 36 months and say, "Wow, we're going to double the amount of renewable diesel used in California," you run out of trucks.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Those two very significant constraints means that you're not seeing this growth rate of LCFS credits. Technically, you see a decrease over the last two quarters in LCFS credits produced by renewable diesel. Also, electricity was down, renewable diesel was down. You're seeing declines in the production of LCFS credits. At the same time as you know, every single year, the number of LCFS credits that have to be delivered is increased. This is resulting in a larger deficit every quarter. We expect this will go on for approximately the next 15 years. If you just read the data, that's sort of the way it's going to work. At some point in time, traders will realize it's cheaper to buy $100 or $200 LCFS credit than to run out of the LCFS bank and have to pay the max, which is today over $250 per credit.

Derrick Whitfield
Derrick Whitfield
Analyst at Texas Capital

Very helpful. Thanks for your time.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question will be coming from Ed Woo with Ascendiant Capital. Your line is live.

Ed Woo
Ed Woo
Analyst at Ascendiant Capital

Congratulations on all the progress. Going back to the LCFS credit recovery, the pricing has gone from about $55 a ton-$80 a ton recently. Do you have any guidance on how high do you think it can go?

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Excellent. Well, the cap is $270. We know the regulators, it's $200 plus the cost of living index starting in 2016 is the calculator. We fully expect that the oil industry is doing what it can to try to convince California regulators not to enforce the rules. I think the reality is this is a 20-year program that was adopted in July of 2025. There's a very limited amount of appetite for people to go back through what was a four-year process of putting this in place.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

We expect that the program itself will continue to generate deficits, and we're largely just measuring how long it will take for major purchasers and obligated parties to decide that they should load up and be well-positioned for the longer term. Right now, I think people are relying upon the large amount of credits in the bank. As that excess pile of credits gets rapidly depleted, I think more and more traders will look out three to four years and decide they don't want to pay $270 per credit.

Ed Woo
Ed Woo
Analyst at Ascendiant Capital

Great. That sounds good. Thanks for answering my questions. I wish you guys good luck. Thank you.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Thanks, Ed.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Amit Dayal with H.C. Wainwright. Your line is live.

Amit Dayal
Amit Dayal
Analyst at H.C. Wainwright

Thank you. Good afternoon, Eric, and team. With respect to sort of the India IPO process for the India biodiesel plant, the start and stop nature of operations over there, is that becoming a little bit of an overhang on the process, Eric? How should we think about that item being checked off in 2026? Does this get pushed out to 2027?

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

The start stop of our operation certainly has an impact, no question at all about that. Having an equal, if maybe even a stronger impact is the global increase in the price of crude oil as a result of the Iranian war and the politics between the U.S. and India, in which the U.S. now kind of controls India's purchases from Russia of crude oil. That has caused the India domestic diesel price to be increased multiple times in the last few months. The external drivers in favor of biodiesel adoption are very positive. What's having a bigger impact on our business than whether OMCs this month or next month are ordering as much as they could, is just the impact of the higher energy prices for both liquefied natural gas as well as for liquid fuels resulting from the Iranian war on the overall stock market.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

The overall stock market in India in the first three quarters of the year had some trouble. People expected that higher energy prices would hit earnings. There's been a bit of a recovery in the last month or so, we've seen some IPOs that have now gone through. There was a bottleneck in the IPO pipeline because of the overall market price decrease that happened in the first few months or first actually two quarters of 2026. That is what's directly impacting our timing, as we talk about the IPO in India, we talk about market conditions. It's really the IPO market conditions that we're talking about. They're getting IPOs done now, there was and is a pipeline of IPOs in process in India. We are very well positioned for growth in India as well as diversification.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

We have talked about additional biodiesel sites that's actively in process. Our strategy is to place our biodiesel plants close to sources of supply. We are the largest biodiesel producer in the country. We intend to stay that way. We're working on diversification. Our diversification is into what they call Compressed Biogas, but we call it Renewable Natural Gas, as well as into Sustainable Aviation Fuel. We're executing on our plan. We have increasing confidence that the IPO market is showing some robustness, and we have engaged outside lawyers, accountants, IPO managers. We have a new CFO that joined us last year. We have a new CEO that joined us a while ago. We have an IPO in process in India, and subject to market conditions, it'll happen as soon as the market's available for us to be the next one in line.

Amit Dayal
Amit Dayal
Analyst at H.C. Wainwright

Understood, Eric. Thank you for that. You also mentioned some of that capacity is going to private parties, not the Oil Marketing Companies. Is this sort of a new development, or have you already always been supplying some of that capacity to private players over there?

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

It's a very good question. It is a new development. It is a very large market. The price of diesel in India has been controlled by the government. It's a part of their policy. With the inability for Russia to supply cheap crude oil into India, the India government's been forced to push up the price of diesel several times in the last few months. As a result, commercial customers can buy from us at attractive prices that are a discount of 3%-5% below what they have to pay for diesel at the pump. They also get some other benefits like lower particulate emissions and some other indirect benefits. A savings of up to 5% on fuel is certainly material. We have large commercial customers that we are either already shipping or expanding our relationship with that could be very significant volumes for us.

Amit Dayal
Amit Dayal
Analyst at H.C. Wainwright

Understood. Just last one from me. Are you comfortable with your liquidity position? Right now, the balance sheet seems to have quite a bit of current debt. Just wondering, how you are planning to sort of address that part of the story.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

We have had a very positive and productive working relationship with our private credit provider, Third Eye Capital, since 2018. Just within the last couple of months, had a visit by all the principals in the firm and a very productive multi-day project tour and update. We are looking forward to continued very successful relationship with Third Eye Capital. I should note that about $120 million of our funding with Third Eye is at an effective interest rate of about 5%, and we have some more expensive debt with them as well. Our goal is to continue pay-downs as we do these catch-ups on 45Z and other events or very large cash events that should be happening later on this year, and that we can refinance the balance of those amounts all to longer term and lower interest rates.

Amit Dayal
Amit Dayal
Analyst at H.C. Wainwright

Thank you, Eric. That's all I have. Appreciate it.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Thanks, Amit.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is coming from Dave Storms with Stonegate. Your line is live.

Dave Storms
Analyst at Stonegate

Hello, and thank you for taking my questions. Maybe want to start with the gross margin profile, expecting that you'll be entering 2027 with an even stronger profile following the MVR coming online. As we're thinking through the impact of that, do you think there will be more leverage to the gross margin on the revenue gains from the MVR coming online or the cost takeouts that are also associated with that?

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Very good question. About $8 million of the $32 million, so approximately one quarter, comes from the petroleum natural gas cost reduction every month that we have to currently endure. We're reducing fossil natural gas by about 80%. The 45Z and LCFS value adds up to about $24 million a year. As LCFS credits increase, the value of that $24 million increases. We do anticipate actually to have more than $32 million of ongoing value, especially as LCFS credits, which are currently in $80 range up from a little over $50 earlier this year. As they are expected to exceed $100 and eventually exceed $150, that'll increasingly reward us for this energy efficiency project at the ethanol plant.

Dave Storms
Analyst at Stonegate

That's great color. I appreciate that. Turning to your MMBtus, back of the envelope math, has your digesters running 40,000 MMBtus-50,000 MMBtus per year? Obviously, with variances based on the weather, when it gets colder, the digesters digest less. Is that maybe a fair run rate, though, for these two new digesters that are coming online? Or are there other variables we should keep in mind?

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

The size of the dairy is the number one criteria. We will be updating some of that information over the course of the next quarters. Dairies in general are 25,000 MMBtus-30,000 MMBtus per year. That's what our average dairy generation is, and these dairies are approximately average dairy size.

Dave Storms
Analyst at Stonegate

That's perfect. Thank you for taking my questions, and good luck on the next quarter.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Sure. Thank you, Dave.

Operator

Thank you. We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the call back over to Mr. McAfee for any closing remarks.

Eric McAfee
Eric McAfee
Chairman and CEO at Aemetis

Thank you to Aemetis stockholders, analysts, and others for joining us today. We look forward to talking with you about participating in the growth opportunities at Aemetis. Todd?

Todd Waltz
Todd Waltz
CFO at Aemetis

Thank you for attending today's Aemetis earnings conference call. A written and audio version of this earnings review will be posted to the investors section of the Aemetis website. Ollie?

Operator

Thank you. Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This does conclude today's call, and you may disconnect your lines at this time. We thank you for your participation.

Executives
    • Eric McAfee
      Eric McAfee
      Chairman and CEO
    • Andy Foster
      Andy Foster
      President of Advanced Fuels
Analysts