MDU Resources Group Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

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Provided by Quartr
August 6, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter earnings increased to $21.3 million, or $0.10 per share, from $13.7 million, or $0.07 per share, a result driven by higher utility sales, new rates, customer growth and Badger Wind Farm contributions.
  • Positive Sentiment: MDU reaffirmed its 2026 earnings-per-share guidance of $0.93–$1.00 and its long-term EPS growth target of 6%–8%, supported by a $3.1 billion 2026–2030 capital program and anticipated constructive regulatory outcomes.
  • Positive Sentiment: The proposed Bakken East Pipeline reached agreements covering nearly 1.2 Bcf per day of capacity, with an option that could bring volumes close to the original open-season interest; a final investment decision is expected before the planned fourth-quarter 2026 FERC filing.
  • Neutral Sentiment: Data-center growth continues, with more than 1 GW under signed electric service agreements and a new 430-MW Applied Digital agreement, but approval for the Polaris Forge 3 project remains pending and its financial impact is not included in guidance.
  • Negative Sentiment: Pipeline-segment earnings declined to $14.4 million from $15.4 million because of lower other income and higher depreciation and amortization, although a pending FERC rate case seeks a $31 million annual revenue increase effective December 2026, subject to refund and regulatory proceedings.
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Earnings Conference Call
MDU Resources Group Q2 2026
00:00 / 00:00

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Operator

I will now hand the conference over to Brent Miller, Treasurer of MDU Resources Group. Brent, please go ahead.

Brent Miller
Brent Miller
Treasurer at MDU Resources Group

Thank you. Welcome everyone to the MDU Resources Group second quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Our earnings release and supporting materials for this call are available on our website at mdu.com under the Investors section. Leading today's call are Nicole Kivisto, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Jason Vollmer, Chief Financial Officer of MDU Resources Group. During today's call, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Please refer to our SEC filings for a discussion of risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. I will now turn the call over to Nicole for her prepared remarks. Nicole?

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Thank you, Brent. Good afternoon, everyone. We appreciate you joining us today and for your continued interest in MDU Resources. This morning, we reported second quarter 2026 earnings of $21.3 million or $0.10 per share. Our results reflected continued execution across our regulated utility and pipeline businesses. New rates, customer growth, investments such as Badger Wind Farm, and higher retail sales volumes helped drive the results. We delivered solid results while also continuing to advance strategic infrastructure opportunities that continue to support long-term growth. A key highlight for the quarter was certainly the continued advancement of the proposed Bakken East Pipeline Project.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

With recently signed precedent agreements, we now have executed agreements with all customers that submitted binding open-season interest totaling nearly 1.2 billion cubic feet per day of transportation capacity, with a negotiated option in place that may increase contracted volumes to nearly all of the original interest from our binding open season. We continue to design the project for 1.4 billion cubic feet per day of transportation capacity. Overall project design is being finalized based on confirmed customer volumes and delivery locations before a final investment decision is made, which is expected ahead of a FERC 7(c) filing. This application is now anticipated to be filed in the fourth quarter of 2026. The proposed in-service dates of phase one in late 2029 and phase two in late 2030 remain unchanged.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

As development progresses, we continue to evaluate financing, partnership, and other commercial options to support the projected $2.7 billion-$3.2 billion project. The potential Bakken East investment remains incremental to our current capital program. We also continue to see encouraging development activity across our service territory, including data center opportunities and broader infrastructure demand. Our approach to serving data centers is grounded in protecting existing customers and ensuring that growth creates value for the communities we serve. Data center customers are responsible for paying the costs associated with connecting to and being served by the electric system, including infrastructure and energy-related expenses. At the same time, the additional revenue generated from serving these customers can help support the electric system and contribute to reducing certain fixed costs for existing retail customers by allocating them across a broader customer base. This current approach creates benefits for all customers.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

During the quarter, we did enter into an electric service agreement with Applied Digital to serve Polaris Forge 3, an AI factory near Center, North Dakota. At full capacity, the campus would require 430 MW of electricity. Approval of the ESA and other regulatory filings by the North Dakota Public Service Commission is pending. We now have over 1 GW of data center load under signed ESAs with approximately 240 MW currently online, with additional volumes expected over the next few years as additional buildings are constructed. On the electric regulatory front, we did file a North Dakota general rate case on June 30th, 2026, requesting an annual revenue increase of approximately $34.5 million, with interim rates of approximately $26.3 million requested to begin on September 1st of this year. The filing reflects electric infrastructure investments, normal depreciation, reliability improvements, system safety, and higher operation and maintenance expense.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

In Montana, interim rates reflecting an annual increase of approximately $10.4 million remain in effect subject to refund, and a settlement agreement of $10 million has been filed and is pending commission approval. In Wyoming, our general rate case settlement was approved for an annual increase of $5.8 million, with rates effective April 1st, 2026. Also in June, the North Dakota Public Service Commission approved the route permit for the Jamestown to Ellendale transmission project. This project is expected to enhance reliability, improve resiliency, reduce transmission congestion, and support access to lower-cost energy across the region. At our natural gas distribution segment, positive regulatory outcomes in Idaho, Washington, Montana, and Wyoming, as well as higher retail sales volumes and continued customer growth supported improved year-over-year results.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

In Washington, we did file a multi-year natural gas case requesting an annual revenue increase of $25.1 million in year one and $18.1 million in year two. Our Oregon general rate case remains pending with a multi-party settlement agreement, which was filed on July 31st, 2026, with a requested annual increase of approximately $12.2 million. We also do anticipate filing a Minnesota general rate case later this year. At our pipeline segment, strategic growth initiatives continue to advance. The Line Section 32 expansion project remains on schedule following our FERC Section 7(c) application filing in March of 2026 and continues to target at late 2028 in-service date, subject to regulatory approvals. Development activities for the potential Minot industrial project also continue under agreements currently extended through late 2026.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

In addition, our pipeline business filed a FERC rate case on May 29th of this year, requesting a $31 million annual revenue increase. Approximately 30% of the requested revenue increase is due to proposed new depreciation and amortization rates. FERC accepted and suspended the proposed rates on June 30th, with rates to become effective December 1st, 2026, subject to refund and the outcome of hearing procedures if a settlement with our customers and FERC is not reached. Looking ahead, we are reaffirming our 2026 earnings per share guidance range of $0.93-$1.00. This guidance is based on assumptions including normal weather, economic and operating conditions for the remainder of the year, continued customer growth, successful execution of approved capital investment programs, and constructive regulatory outcomes. Our long-term earnings per share growth objective remains at 6%-8%.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Our capital program for 2026 through 2030 totals approximately $3.1 billion, with planned investments of approximately $1.1 billion in our electric business, $1.4 billion at our natural gas distribution business, and $643 million at our pipeline. We remain focused on disciplined execution of this plan while advancing additional infrastructure opportunities that support customers, communities, and stockholders. As always, MDU Resources is committed to operating with integrity and with a focus on safety. We remain dedicated to delivering safe, reliable, cost-effective, and environmentally responsible energy services while positioning the company for compelling long-term growth. With that, I will now turn the call over to Jason for the financial update. Jason?

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

Thank you, Nicole. As Nicole mentioned, we announced this morning second-quarter earnings of $21.3 million, or $0.10 per share, compared to $13.7 million, or $0.07 per share for the second quarter of 2025. On a year-to-date basis, earnings were $102.1 million, or $0.49 per share, compared to $95.7 million or $0.47 per share for the first six months of last year. Turning to our individual businesses, our electric utility reported second quarter earnings of $14.7 million, compared to $10.4 million for the same period in 2025. Results benefited from higher retail sales revenue, including recovery mechanisms associated with renewable investments such as the Badger Wind Farm, which contributed $3.3 million in earnings during the quarter. Interim rates in Montana and new rates in Wyoming, along with higher retail sales volumes across all major customer classes, also contributed to the increase.

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

Our natural gas distribution segment reported a seasonal second quarter loss of $3.9 million, compared to a seasonal loss of $7.4 million in the second quarter of 2025. The improved year-over-year result was primarily driven by new rates in Idaho, Washington, Montana, and Wyoming, as well as higher retail sales volumes across all customer classes. Retail sales volumes increased 6.7%, and customer growth was 1.6% year-over-year. These benefits were partially offset by higher interest expense resulting from higher long-term debt balances. The pipeline segment earned $14.4 million in the second quarter, compared to $15.4 million in the same period in 2025. The decrease was driven by lower other income and higher depreciation and amortization expense from a growth project placed in service.

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

These impacts were partially offset by continued customer demand for short-term natural gas transportation contracts and interruptible storage services, along with contributions from previously constructed growth projects, including a contracted volume increase. The other category reported a second quarter net loss of $3.9 million, compared to a net loss of $4.7 million in the same period last year. The year-over-year improvement was primarily due to discontinued operations and associated with a $1.5 million tax benefit related to strategic initiative costs. We continue to maintain a strong balance sheet and ample access to working capital to finance operations through our peak periods. That summarizes our financial highlights for the quarter. We appreciate your interest in MDU Resources and ask now that we open the line for questions. Operator?

Operator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please raise your hand now. If you have dialed in to today's call, please press star one to raise your hand. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Constantine Lednev with Wells Fargo. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Andrew Kadavy
Andrew Kadavy
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Hi. Actually, it's Andrew Kadavy for Constantine right now. Maybe on the financing options for Bakken East, we've seen some peers use a variety of instruments to finance these bigger projects. Have you seen any favorable markets out there that could help you efficiently finance the project?

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

Yeah, certainly. This is Jason. I can field that one. I think, again, as we have stated before, at this point, we're very excited to have reached executing all of the precedent agreements we have in place as we've been working towards that progress. We continue to look at all options as we think about financing a project of this size and scope. I think, as you mentioned, we've seen others out there, too.

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

We've been very focused on getting these precedent agreements signed and getting to the point of a decision, and of course, need to get in front of our board to look at a final investment decision on this project. I think it's safe to say we'll look at all options out there, but feel very confident in the ability to finance a project like this, and certainly some good appetite out there for these types of assets today.

Andrew Kadavy
Andrew Kadavy
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Would that, I guess, the financing options, would that be part of the Board's FID decision? Is that still on schedule for third quarter, or were we looking at fourth quarter for that now?

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

Right now, what we've stated in a little bit of a new update in our release this quarter, we are looking to make our 7(c) filing in the fourth quarter. I think we would've previously looked at third quarter based on the schedule. Certainly, some of the precedent agreement negotiations took a little bit longer. As Nicole mentioned, some of these recently signed here. We will continue to bring our board up to speed on where we're at with the project. They've been certainly involved all the way along.

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

Work is continuing on this project and has continued from the beginning, since started looking at this. I'm not going to be specific on a timeline date yet. I think we need to go through the process of now getting the right information in front of our Board to make a decision in the right manner. Certainly would happen ahead of the 7(c) filing, which we are now expecting to happen in the fourth quarter.

Andrew Kadavy
Andrew Kadavy
Analyst at Wells Fargo

Appreciate it. Thank you. I'll leave it there.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Julien Dumoulin-Smith with Jefferies. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Analyst at Jefferies

Hi, team. It's actually Tanner on for Julien. Good afternoon.

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

Good afternoon, Tanner.

Analyst at Jefferies

Thank you. Thanks for the new Bakken East disclosures here. Could you maybe provide a little more information on the negotiated option in place, the strategic rationality behind it, and how you would classify the commercial alternatives in not taking the option? Thanks.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Yeah, I can take that. Appreciate the question, and I guess I just want to start by echoing what Jason said. I really want to give a shout-out to the WBI team. Extremely proud of the milestone here that we announced today with the recently signed precedent agreements that get us to all customers, really, that were in the non-binding open season showed up here. That's real positive news. We did reference the option, as you mentioned, essentially what we've done with that customer is all customers are working on timing with their applicable customers. We worked an arrangement out where they have an option to essentially add more volumes at an already negotiated agreement. Essentially, if that happens, what we alluded to in the release is that gets us very close to that open season amount.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Now saying that, I will say a key data point that we disclosed here also would be that we still are designing the project at 1.4 Bcf a day. Feel good about that. Just highlighting a couple of the other key updates, which Jason alluded to, too, which is with the precedent agreements being recently signed, we did allude to moving that 7(c) filing back to the fourth quarter, and note that we would make a final investment decision ahead of that. In service dates, as we mentioned, they'll remain unchanged.

Analyst at Jefferies

Understood. Great. Thanks. Is the state's backstop a portion of the executed agreements, or have you found an offtaker to stand in their place?

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Yes. The state is part of the precedent agreements that we have signed.

Analyst at Jefferies

Understood. Thanks. Then maybe just following up on the Polaris Forge 3 ESA. You're in front of the commission requesting approval. Can you speak to the magnitude of margin uplifts here relative to what we're seeing at the Ellendale campus and maybe zooming out, since you've also recently just filed your electric rate case in the state. Does this give you confidence to be able to elongate the period between filings, given the support to earned ROEs from the capital light ESAs? Thanks.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Yeah, absolutely. We certainly are excited about the ESA that we signed. As we disclosed, it's 430 MW. As you mentioned, rightfully so, we do have this in front of the state of North Dakota for approval. As you can imagine, we would be waiting to get the appropriate approvals before we'd contemplate including that in any of our numbers or providing any financial guidance. Right now, that would not be contemplated in what we're talking about from a long-term growth rate perspective. Certainly, the way we are working through these negotiations with data center customers, you've heard us talk about this in the past, we are working under a capital light model as of today, and so incremental margin on data center load is a benefit to the company, but I would say it's also a benefit to our customers.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

We really do feel like it's a win-win. Yes, there is a benefit to the company, but as we've talked about with investors in the past, we are sharing a piece of that margin with our retail customers, they are getting a credit on their bill as well. In addition to that, the data center takes on more of that transmission expense that otherwise would've been allocated to our retail customers. We're also seeing bill impacts, bill reductions to retail customers because of that. That kind of gives you, here's the company side of it, here's the customer side of it. The bottom line is the Center ESA right now, we are still waiting for approval and final move forward on that with the state before we would incorporate something like that in our guidance.

Analyst at Jefferies

Great. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Aidan Kelly with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Aidan Kelly
Aidan Kelly
Analyst at JPMorgan

Hey, guys. Thanks for the time today.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Absolutely. Thank you for joining.

Aidan Kelly
Aidan Kelly
Analyst at JPMorgan

Yeah, of course. Just want to hone in on Bakken East again. Clearly strong commercial momentum to date with the 1.2 Bcf secured, you mentioned, and you're still kind of designing for 1.4 Bcf. I guess my question is, are there any factors that would cause you to expand the Bakken East pipe? I know in the past you've kind of spoken to an overbuild scenario as a consideration. Just curious if you could comment on the potential there and your thoughts in general.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Yeah. As we mentioned in the news release, and I also reiterated as part of my talking points here today, we are still currently working through that overall design. With these recently signed precedent agreements, we will look at what makes sense in terms of designing the project so that we can have expandability, but also designing the project so that it meets the financial hurdles we need from a board as well as a shareholder perspective. It's a balancing act, but certainly we will be looking at that and contemplating that as we move to a final investment decision.

Aidan Kelly
Aidan Kelly
Analyst at JPMorgan

Great. Understood. Makes sense. I guess just teeing it all up, you kind of laid out potential FID coming before the 7(c) filing in 4Q, and you kind of need to go to the board for some considerations there. I guess just for the investment community, when should we kind of expect you to refresh the capital plan and kind of roll in this Bakken East estimate? Is that on the tails of 4Q or just any kind of color on the timing there as you kind of see it today?

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

Aidan, I can take that one. Our normal process for updating capital would really be kind of that late November timeframe. Typically after our third quarter board meeting with our Board, updating along the way. Now that said, something the size of a Bakken East project here would be incrementally large increase to that. I think when we get to a point where we've got an FID decision, a little more clarity around exactly what impacts this could have should we decide to proceed here, then I think we would update the market at that point with some sort of a maybe revised range. As you know, right now, we've put a range out there in the neighborhood of $2.7 billiion-$3.2 billion or billion of the capital range. Sorry on that one.

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

That is something that we all continue to refine as we go along, as we get closer to the ultimate decision here. But I think we'll probably narrow that in, and certainly by the time we get to our November normal capital increase cycle, we would have a kind of a working assumption built into our capital plan again, if our board decides to move forward with this project. And certainly, again, at this point, we're excited about the progress we've made to date.

Aidan Kelly
Aidan Kelly
Analyst at JPMorgan

Great. Thanks. Sorry, just one follow-up question on my first question, actually. So it is possible upsize, and then I guess when would that decision be made, if so?

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

I can maybe just comment on that. Again, we're designing for 1.4 Bcf, that's really going to support the demand that we are getting here throughout the contracting process, where we've got to at this point in time. To Nicole's point, there would be the ability for us to expand on that in the future, should we see additional demand arise in the future. That would probably take some additional capital, maybe in the form of additional compression, things like that. Those are things we'll make decisions on as we go, but right now we are designing to the demand that we have today. We would have the ability to potentially upsize this in the future if more demand showed up in future periods.

Aidan Kelly
Aidan Kelly
Analyst at JPMorgan

Great. Appreciate all the time today. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Jason Vollmer
Jason Vollmer
CFO at MDU Resources Group

Thank you.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Thank you.

Operator

A reminder. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one to raise your hand. Your next question comes from the line of Chris Ellinghaus with Siebert Williams Shank. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Chris Ellinghaus
Chris Ellinghaus
Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank

Hey, everybody. How are you today?

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Doing good, Chris.

Chris Ellinghaus
Chris Ellinghaus
Analyst at Siebert Williams Shank

Could you just give a little color-

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Chris, are you still there? We can't hear you right now.

Operator

A gentle reminder to unmute locally. Your next question comes from the line of Ryan Levine with Citi. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Ryan Levine
Ryan Levine
Analyst at Citi

Hi, everybody. I wanted to start off on the North Dakota data center front, given that we're seeing broad calls, and at least publicly, around increased community engagement on some of the concerns around data centers in the state. How's MDU approaching the engagement on those potential issues and trying to advance projects that may support global growth in the region?

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Yeah. As it relates to where we are currently serving, I'm assuming you're talking about the data center load and conversations around that balancing act. I just want to make sure I'm answering your question.

Ryan Levine
Ryan Levine
Analyst at Citi

Correct.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Yes. Yeah. I think as we think about where we're at today in the communities that we've got signed ESAs, we feel pretty good about how that community conversation is moving forward. That being said, we do believe that we need to continue to tell our story in terms of how we are serving data centers and what the potential benefit is, not only to our existing retail customers, but to the communities at large. We have been engaged with the communities, we've been engaged in other discussions locally in terms of getting that message out, highlighting that information on our website, visiting with our employees about it, et cetera, just to make sure that it's understood in terms of how we are serving data center loads. Specifically as it relates to those conversations in the areas where we have signed ESAs, we feel good about where we're at today.

Ryan Levine
Ryan Levine
Analyst at Citi

Thanks. Just to clarify, given all the momentum around the pipeline expansion and you indicating that no FID until the fourth quarter, just to confirm, there's no meaningful milestones that need to be achieved between now and then to move forward with the project or any clarification you're able to make to around that particular issue?

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

I guess I would just clarify your question with the response that is making sure you understand. What we said is we would intend to have an FID before the 7(c) filing, and the 7(c) filing is scheduled for the fourth quarter. Just want to clarify, we didn't technically say for sure that's when we would move forward with an FID would be the fourth. We said it would be before the filing of that 7(c). Just want to clarify that. In terms of other major milestones, as you can imagine, we have continued work on this project all the way through this as we were negotiating precedent agreements.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

We have been doing numerous things, whether it's boots on the ground activity, whether it's continuing to think about how we might finance a project of this size. Throughout that whole process, we have certainly been engaged with our Board in this discussion as well, and so we'll continue to do that as we head into a final investment decision.

Ryan Levine
Ryan Levine
Analyst at Citi

Appreciate the disclosure. Thank you.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Nicole Kivisto for closing remarks.

Nicole Kivisto
Nicole Kivisto
President and CEO at MDU Resources Group

All right. I want to thank everyone again for joining us today and for your thoughtful questions. We certainly appreciate your continued interest in and support of MDU Resources. As we move through the remainder of 2026, we remain focused on disciplined execution of our capital program, constructive regulatory engagement in advancing infrastructure opportunities that support safe, reliable and affordable energy for our customers. Finally, I want to close by thanking all of our employees for their ongoing commitment to safety, reliability, operational excellence, and customer service. With that, we look forward to staying engaged with all of you throughout the year. Operator, you may conclude the call.

Operator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.

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