ASML Q3 2026 Pre Recorded Earnings Results & Report

ASML EPS Results

• Actual EPS: $14.71
• Consensus EPS: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• One Year Ago EPS: N/A
• EPS Beat Rate: 5 of last 8 quarters

ASML Revenue Results

• Actual Revenue: $13.27 billion
• Expected Revenue: N/A
• Beat/Miss: N/A
• YoY Revenue Growth: N/A

ASML (NASDAQ:ASML) is a Netherlands-based technology company that develops and manufactures advanced lithography systems used by semiconductor manufacturers to produce integrated circuits. Its equipment projects patterns onto silicon wafers, enabling the creation of increasingly smaller and more powerful semiconductor features.

ASML’s product portfolio includes extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems, and related metrology and inspection solutions. The company also provides software, customer support, and upgrade services that help semiconductor manufacturers optimize their production processes.

Founded in 1984 as a joint venture between Philips and ASM International, ASML is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands. It serves semiconductor manufacturers and research organizations worldwide, with operations and customer-support activities across Europe, North America, and Asia. Christophe Fouquet has served as the company’s president and chief executive officer since 2024.

ASML Q3 2026 Pre Recorded Earnings Call Transcript

Key Takeaways

• Positive Sentiment: Record Q3 performance: ASML reported EUR 11.7 billion in sales, EUR 3.3 billion in installed-base revenue, a 57.5% gross margin and EUR 5 billion in net income. Installed-base upgrades significantly exceeded guidance and were a key contributor to profitability.
• Positive Sentiment: Raised 2026 outlook: Q4 sales are expected at EUR 14.2–15.2 billion, supporting full-year sales of EUR 44–45 billion and a gross margin of about 56%. Full-year growth is expected to be led by EUV systems, up more than 45%, and installed-base revenue, up about 50%.
• Positive Sentiment: Demand visibility remains exceptionally strong: Customers reportedly expect semiconductor supply to remain below demand at least through 2028, with accelerated fab plans and orders increasingly extending into 2028–2030.
• Neutral Sentiment: Capacity expansion is becoming a key execution challenge: ASML expects to increase capacity by more than 30% in 2027, but management said that will not be sufficient to meet customer demand and is evaluating further expansion for 2028 and beyond. Upgrades, higher-throughput systems and productivity improvements will help supplement additional unit shipments.
• Positive Sentiment: High-NA adoption is advancing: Samsung plans high-volume manufacturing use beginning in 2028, TSMC has confirmed an introduction around 2030, and Intel continues expanding production use. ASML also launched a next-generation YieldStar metrology system with improved accuracy and 60% higher productivity.

Presentation

[Operator]

Hello, and welcome to ASML's Q3 2026 results with Christophe Fouquet and Roger Dassen. Welcome, Roger, Christophe. Roger, if I can start and ask you to give us a summary of Q3, very strong quarter. Also share a little bit some of the dynamics that got us to that result.

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

Yeah, indeed, a very strong quarter. Net sales came in at EUR 11.7 billion for the quarter. Included in there, EUR 3.3 billion for installed base revenue. That EUR 11.7 billion, that was within guidance, towards the higher end of the guidance. The EUR 3.3 billion was EUR 400 million more than we guided, which I think is a very strong reflection of the desire of our customers to provide upgrades on their installed base. That was the primary driver for that higher number. The gross margin for the quarter, 57.5%, again, largely driven, I would say, by installed base revenue and the upgrade business as a result of that higher than what we guided. Net income for the quarter, EUR 5 billion.

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

Included in there, EUR 500 million for the revaluation, if you like, of the first tranche that we bought from Mistral. All in all, I would say a very, very strong quarter. A record quarter, I think is fair to say, both at the sales level and also at the gross margin level. I think it's a clear indication of the very strong execution that we have against the backdrop of a very, very strong market demand.

[Operator]

With that strong quarter behind us, how are you looking at Q4 and the full year then for 2026?

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

For Q4, we expect revenue between EUR 14.2 billion and EUR 15.2 billion. Again, a very good step up, and that is also what we expected. We said that we expect the second half to be stronger than the first half. And you see that momentum really very, very strongly building up. So EUR 14.2 billion-EUR 15.2 billion there. In terms of installed base business, again, we expect an increase there. We expect EUR 3.7 billion installed base business for the quarter.

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

Again, largely driven, I would say, by upgrades. A gross margin, we expect around 57% for the quarter. If you translate all of that into what does it mean for the full year, so for the full year 2026, we therefore now expect our sales to be between EUR 44 billion and EUR 45 billion for the year, and we expect a gross margin of around 56%.

[Operator]

What does that mean then for the different parts of the business in 2026?

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

Against the backdrop of an overall 36% increase of 2026 in comparison to 2025, you see that that is largely driven by EUV. So the EUV business grows over 45% this year. We expect the non-EUV business to be around 20% growth in comparison to last year, and the installed base business, around 50%. The China part of the total business we expect to be around 20%.

[Operator]

Then maybe just going a bit deeper on the gross margin, I think at the beginning of the year, we had a guide of between 51% and 53%. Certainly things have gotten stronger since then. Can you share a little bit maybe on the dynamics that have led to that improved outlook?

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

Absolutely. What are the key drivers? Of course, volume helps. Clearly, we have increased our expectation in terms of total sales, and higher volume obviously leads to better fixed cost coverage. That is a positive for the gross margin. Also, mix is important. If you look at EUV and immersion as key drivers for the gross margin, both of them are pretty strong. Also obviously, as I mentioned before, the installed base business and the upgrade business included in there is a very, very strong driver of the gross margin. As a result of that, indeed, as you say, 56% is the expectation for the full year, which is a very, very nice step up from the expectations at the beginning of the year.

[Operator]

But I think we also talked last quarter about higher value-based pricing and the contribution that might play on the gross margin. How is that showing up as part of the outlook?

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

Yeah, so we completed those conversations. That's been done with the key customers. The effect of that is not really visible in 2026. It will start to become visible partly in the course of 2027. I think the full impact of that you will start to see in 2028 and beyond.

[Operator]

Then maybe, Christophe, with that very strong outlook on 2026, I think you've spent a lot of time with our customers this quarter. What are the conversations you're having with them in terms of the investment plans that they have, and how is that feeding into the demand outlook that you're seeing for ourselves?

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

Well, we did indeed spend a lot of time with our customers, and I think all of them are commenting that they see their demand increasing on the short term, but also extending in time. I think that their visibility is very good at this point of time. Today, they expect that their supply will not meet the demand at least until 2028. This is a very, very strong demand on their side. And of course, this means that they want to build up more capacity faster, so they are accelerating their plan.

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

They are announcing new fabs. And for us, this translates on the short term into more demand, as Roger mentioned, overall basically for our holistic product portfolio. And on the long term, increased visibility for our demand, especially with EUV. A lot of our discussion with our customer now are shifting, in fact, beyond 2027. A lot of order intake for 2028, but also some strong interest to already place order for 2029 and sometime even 2030.

[Operator]

Then, with that demand outlook, how is that shaping your thinking in terms of our own capacity expansion planning?

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

Well, I think it's a very clear picture. I think Roger mentioned it. First, we are very happy of the execution of the team ASML on the ramp this year. We expect to ship about 65 system, which is more than 50% increase compared to last year. This is already quite an exceptional step up. Deep UV immersion, at this time last year, we were planning to ship quite a few less tool. We moved back to a very strong year, and we're planning to ship about the same amount of tool as last year. This is clear that we've done some good work to be able to start the ramp very aggressively.

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

Last quarter, we talked about 30% more capacity next year, and also the aspiration to have another 30% increase in 2028. A lot of focus was there, but to be honest, it's becoming very clear that 30% in 2027, 30% in 2028 will not allow us to meet our customer demand. We have to do more, and we are looking basically at ways, especially in 2028 and beyond, to further extend our capacity. This is very important, of course, to be able to fulfill our customer demand as much as we can.

[Operator]

Maybe one of the other levers, or we do have other levers in terms of how we can offer capacity increases to our customers. Roger, can you maybe talk a little bit more about some of those and how they help?

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

Absolutely. In addition to increase in unit shipments that Christophe talked about, one important driver, obviously, is the installed base business that we've talked about quite a bit. Of course, that is a major driver, and it's something that customers really like, right? Because what it does is, it gives you within your existing footprint, you get pretty fast incremental capacity there. That's been very successful so far, and we expect that to continue to be quite successful on a go-forward basis.

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

We're also very aggressively developing upgrades. We will get more and more upgrades on our installed base available to our customers. In that way, we try to help customers in getting instantaneous access to more capacity. That's one driver. The second driver is the execution of a roadmap, and productivity again, there is an important driver. With new releases of new products, you will see more and more productivity. We talked in the past about a NXE:3800F—

[Operator]

Yep.

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

—which gets you from the 230 wafers per hour that we have today to 260 wafers per hour. That will be introduced in 2027. That will be in small quantities, but obviously, for 2028 and beyond, you will see that obviously really helping to increase the capacity of our customers. And also on the immersion front, you will see that we are going to increase the specifications of the key immersion tools that we ship in 2027, and they will actually show 330 wafers per hour. So in that combination, installed base business and improvement of the throughput of the tools that we ship new to customers, that will be a significant enhancement to our customers' capacity.

[Operator]

Yep. Christophe, I can swap now maybe to a little bit on technology front. We had a number of important, I would say, or press releases through the quarter. Can you share a little bit what the importance of those announcements were and the milestones in terms of the adoption plans of High NA?

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

Well, I think that there has been indeed a lot of news around High NA, and we are very happy with that. As you know, the program, the High NA program, started more than 10 years ago, and we are all very happy to see that our customer are now about to start using the tool in high volume manufacturing. I would like to start with TSMC and ASML announcements. TSMC has asked us to lead with them a consortium basically to bring 12 in reticle to the industry. This will happen sometime in the first half of the next decade.

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

But that is also the sign of how important High NA has become in their plan. And that is also why they have basically confirmed that they will also introduce High NA around 2030 in high volume manufacturing. This is a very important announcement because it shows basically that over time, customer are looking at using High NA more. This is why they want to use 12 in reticle. Now, you have noticed that all other major customer also joined that consortium, and at the same time, Samsung has also announced that they will be using High NA in high volume manufacturing starting 2028.

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

And Intel, I think we talked about that before, they continue to run the system in high volume manufacturing, increasing the number of layers, and of course, we look now at a significant amount of wafers being run there. So great news on High NA. I think this is the set of milestone we have been working on very hard for quite a few years.

[Operator]

And then maybe along with that, on the technology side, we saw the introduction of the next generation YieldStar. What is so important about that new technology in terms of how it meets our customers' requirements?

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

Yeah. So there also, I think we talked in the last few quarters, as I think Roger mentioned it a few times, we have a huge momentum on metrology. We have seen major growth. This is true for our overlay metrology system, YieldStar. So the 550 is the latest generation of this tool. It is going to improve, once again, accuracy, and we are now ready for 14 angstrom node in Logic, 1d for DRAM.

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

So very, very accurate tool, and it is going to increase the productivity by 60%, which is very important because customer, in order to get performance, needs more and more metrology, and if we are not to improve productivity, a bit like with our scanner, capacity will also be an issue. So 60% productivity improvement, of course, will boost both the performance of the tool, but also our capacity moving forward.

[Operator]

Yeah. Then maybe one final question. I think both you and Roger have talked about strong business momentum, the demand outlook that we are getting from our customer, and the visibility that they are giving us. What then would you say are the key things that you want to focus on for the rest of the year, but also maybe a little bit in preparation for into next year, for example?

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

Well, I think it is very clear, it is more capacity. As we discussed today, our customer are asking us every single day to get more tools, and the reason for that is because they have very high visibility on what is needed in the future. As a result, we also have this very high visibility.

[Operator]

Yeah.

[Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO at ASML]

There's no doubt in our mind that we need to continue to get more output. It's a lot of work, but this is for sure one of the key focus of everyday life at ASML today. The other one is technology, High NA, YieldStar, we talked about that. We talked in the past also about boosting the productivity of Low NA. Those things also help our customer first to transition to the next technology, but they also help with capacity. This is the two things we have to do in parallel, and I think as we discussed today, I think we are very happy to see progress on both counts.

[Operator]

Yeah. Very helpful. Thank you, Christophe, and thank you, Roger.

[Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO at ASML]

Pleasure.

Participants

Executives

• Roger Dassen, EVP and CFO
• Christophe Fouquet, President and CEO