Morgan Stanley Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL) Stock Price

Key Points

• Morgan Stanley lowered Burlington Stores’ price target to $432 from $438 while maintaining an “overweight” rating, implying roughly 49% upside from the stock’s $289.44 price.
• Analyst sentiment remains positive overall, with 13 Buy ratings and six Holds producing a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average target of $371.12.
• Burlington reported adjusted EPS of $2.96, well above the $2.19 consensus, and revenue rose 11% year over year to approximately $3.0 billion; however, third-quarter EPS guidance of $1.60–$1.70 was below analyst expectations, weighing on the outlook.

Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL - Get Free Report) had its target price reduced by equities researchers at Morgan Stanley from $438.00 to $432.00 in a report released on Friday,Benzinga reports. The firm currently has an "overweight" rating on the stock. Morgan Stanley's price target indicates a potential upside of 49.25% from the stock's current price.

BURL has been the subject of several other reports. Bank of America upped their price objective on Burlington Stores from $367.00 to $375.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research report on Friday, May 29th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. cut their target price on Burlington Stores from $374.00 to $351.00 and set an "overweight" rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, May 29th. Barclays boosted their target price on Burlington Stores from $365.00 to $411.00 and gave the stock an "overweight" rating in a research note on Tuesday, May 26th. Citigroup downgraded Burlington Stores from a "buy" rating to a "neutral" rating and set a $380.00 price target for the company. in a report on Wednesday, August 5th. Finally, Weiss Ratings raised shares of Burlington Stores from a "buy (b-)" rating to a "buy (b)" rating in a report on Wednesday. Thirteen research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and six have issued a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, Burlington Stores presently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $371.12.

Burlington Stores Price Performance

Burlington Stores stock opened at $289.44 on Friday. The stock has a market cap of $18.22 billion, a P/E ratio of 29.75, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.61 and a beta of 1.44. The company has a fifty day simple moving average of $340.27 and a 200-day simple moving average of $325.21. Burlington Stores has a 12-month low of $240.49 and a 12-month high of $378.33. The company has a current ratio of 1.16, a quick ratio of 0.49 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.03.

Burlington Stores (NYSE:BURL - Get Free Report) last issued its earnings results on Thursday, August 27th. The company reported $2.96 EPS for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $2.19 by $0.77. The firm had revenue of $3 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.03 billion. Burlington Stores had a net margin of 5.24% and a return on equity of 39.93%. The company's revenue was up 11.0% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted $1.72 earnings per share. Burlington Stores has set its Q3 2026 guidance at 1.600-1.700 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 11.770-11.970 EPS. Equities analysts expect that Burlington Stores will post 12.21 EPS for the current fiscal year.

Insider Transactions at Burlington Stores

In related news, CMO Jennifer Vecchio sold 1,678 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 3rd. The stock was sold at an average price of $369.04, for a total transaction of $619,249.12. Following the transaction, the chief marketing officer owned 77,661 shares of the company's stock, valued at $28,660,015.44. This trade represents a 2.11% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through this link. Also, insider Matthew Pasch sold 3,773 shares of the business's stock in a transaction dated Friday, June 5th. The shares were sold at an average price of $317.21, for a total value of $1,196,833.33. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider owned 6,523 shares in the company, valued at $2,069,160.83. This trade represents a 36.65% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Over the last quarter, insiders sold 30,392 shares of company stock worth $10,280,271. Company insiders own 1.30% of the company's stock.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of institutional investors have recently modified their holdings of the stock. Harbour Investments Inc. grew its position in Burlington Stores by 44.7% in the 4th quarter. Harbour Investments Inc. now owns 110 shares of the company's stock valued at $32,000 after buying an additional 34 shares during the last quarter. Fifth Third Bancorp raised its holdings in Burlington Stores by 6.4% during the fourth quarter. Fifth Third Bancorp now owns 585 shares of the company's stock worth $169,000 after purchasing an additional 35 shares in the last quarter. Vident Advisory LLC raised its holdings in Burlington Stores by 1.1% during the second quarter. Vident Advisory LLC now owns 3,330 shares of the company's stock worth $775,000 after purchasing an additional 36 shares in the last quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. lifted its position in Burlington Stores by 14.4% in the first quarter. MIRAE ASSET GLOBAL ETFS HOLDINGS Ltd. now owns 302 shares of the company's stock valued at $72,000 after purchasing an additional 38 shares during the period. Finally, Fjarde AP Fonden Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund lifted its position in Burlington Stores by 0.3% in the fourth quarter. Fjarde AP Fonden Fourth Swedish National Pension Fund now owns 13,012 shares of the company's stock valued at $3,759,000 after purchasing an additional 40 shares during the period.

Burlington Stores News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Burlington Stores this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Burlington reported second-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.96, well above the approximately $2.19 analyst consensus, while revenue increased 11% year over year to about $3.0 billion. The company delivered its 15th consecutive quarter of double-digit EPS growth, helped by a 100-basis-point operating-margin improvement. Burlington Stores second-quarter earnings release
• Positive Sentiment: Management raised full-year fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance to $11.77-$11.97, above the $11.23 consensus, and expects revenue of $12.7-$12.8 billion. The outlook implies continued earnings momentum and 10%-11% annual revenue growth. Burlington Stores fiscal 2026 earnings update
• Positive Sentiment: The retailer plans to open 20 stores across 12 states in September, supporting its long-term sales growth strategy. Burlington ended the quarter with 1,287 locations, up 13.1% from a year earlier.
• Positive Sentiment: Burlington intends to use tariff refunds to reduce prices, which could improve customer value and help sustain traffic in its off-price retail model. Burlington tariff refund pricing plans
• Neutral Sentiment: Comparable-store sales rose 2%, producing a solid 7% two-year increase, but growth slowed from 5% in the prior-year quarter. This suggests expansion and margin gains remain strong while underlying demand is moderating. Burlington Stores share-price analysis
• Negative Sentiment: Second-quarter revenue of roughly $3.0 billion fell short of the $3.03 billion consensus, making the earnings beat less convincing to investors.
• Negative Sentiment: Third-quarter EPS guidance of $1.60-$1.70 was materially below the approximately $2.04 analyst expectation. Investors viewed the outlook as lackluster, with tariff-related costs and comparisons weighing on the near-term forecast. Burlington shares and quarterly guidance
• Negative Sentiment: Ross Stores’ stronger performance has raised concerns that Burlington is lagging some competitors within the off-price retail sector. Off-price retail competitor comparison

Burlington Stores Company Profile

Burlington Stores, Inc is an American off-price retailer that sells apparel and home goods at discounted prices. The company's merchandise assortment includes clothing for women, men and children, plus baby products, footwear, accessories, beauty items, toys and home décor. Burlington's merchandising strategy focuses on offering branded and private-label goods at lower prices than traditional department stores by sourcing excess inventory, closeouts and opportunistic buys from manufacturers and other retailers.

The business traces its roots to the Burlington Coat Factory name established in the early 1970s and has since evolved into a broader off-price retailer that carries a wide range of seasonal and everyday merchandise.

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