Sera Prognostics (NASDAQ:SERA) Issues Earnings Results

Key Points

• Results missed expectations: Sera reported a loss of $0.16 per share versus analysts’ expected loss of $0.14, while quarterly revenue of $0.04 million fell short of the $0.07 million consensus.
• Commercial adoption is growing: Q3 test volume rose 54% sequentially and ordering physicians nearly tripled from Q1. Medicaid coverage for PreTRM was added in Florida and Illinois, covering roughly 7 million people.
• Cash provides a long runway: Sera ended the quarter with $72.8 million in cash and expects to fund operations into fiscal 2029, though management noted adoption can take time and average selling prices declined in Q3.

Sera Prognostics (NASDAQ:SERA - Get Free Report) announced its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday. The company reported ($0.16) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of ($0.14) by ($0.02), FiscalAI reports. Sera Prognostics had a negative net margin of 47,475.72% and a negative return on equity of 46.71%. The company had revenue of $0.04 million for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $0.07 million.

Here are the key takeaways from Sera Prognostics' conference call:

• Commercial momentum accelerated: Test volume rose 54% sequentially in Q3 and was nearly five times Q1 levels, while the number of ordering physicians nearly tripled from Q1. The company said it expects adoption to build as practices move toward broader use.
• Medicaid coverage expanded in Florida and Illinois, representing about 7 million covered lives and 140,000 Medicaid births annually; both states have added PreTRM to their fee schedules. Management views these markets as a potential template for state expansion, though it expects initial penetration to take time.
• Sera reported four active commercial-payer pilots, including two with major national health plans, and discussions about a potential multistate program with a large managed care organization. The company expects to publish PRIME health-economic results in Q4, which it believes could strengthen payer discussions.
• Average selling prices fell in Q3 as a larger share of tests came from low- or non-reimbursed patient groups. Management said moving practices from initial interest to high-volume use can take 12–18 months, and it anticipates only low-single-digit penetration in each state during the first year.
• Sera ended the quarter with $72.8 million in cash and said it expects to fund operations into fiscal 2029. It is targeting flat-to-lower operating expenses in 2027 while expanding its commercial team.

Sera Prognostics Stock Performance

Shares of NASDAQ:SERA traded up $0.09 during midday trading on Wednesday, reaching $2.02. 93,572 shares of the company's stock traded hands, compared to its average volume of 44,107. The company has a market cap of $79.49 million, a price-to-earnings ratio of -3.01 and a beta of 1.14. Sera Prognostics has a one year low of $1.56 and a one year high of $3.85. The stock has a 50 day moving average of $2.05 and a 200 day moving average of $2.13.

Wall Street Analysts Forecast Growth

Separately, Weiss Ratings lowered Sera Prognostics from a "sell (d-)" rating to a "sell (e+)" rating in a research report on Monday. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, one has issued a Buy rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company's stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company presently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $5.50.

Insider Activity at Sera Prognostics

In related news, CEO Zhenya Lindgardt sold 20,139 shares of Sera Prognostics stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 8th. The stock was sold at an average price of $2.00, for a total value of $40,278.00. Following the completion of the sale, the chief executive officer directly owned 844,870 shares in the company, valued at approximately $1,689,740. This trade represents a 2.33% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through the SEC website. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Insiders sold 39,661 shares of company stock worth $79,563 over the last 90 days. Company insiders own 11.30% of the company's stock.

About Sera Prognostics

Sera Prognostics, Inc is a women's health diagnostics company focused on improving pregnancy outcomes through biomarker-based testing. The company uses proteomics, bioinformatics and clinical data to develop diagnostic and prognostic products designed to identify risks associated with pregnancy complications.

Its lead product is the PreTRM test, a blood-based test intended to assess a pregnant woman's risk of spontaneous preterm birth in a singleton pregnancy. The test measures specific protein biomarkers and is designed to provide physicians with information that may support risk assessment, patient management and care planning during pregnancy.

Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah, Sera Prognostics primarily serves the U.S.

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