Erste Group Bank Has Weak Forecast for SPOT FY2026 Earnings

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank lowered Spotify’s FY2026 EPS forecast to $13.71 from $14.07, slightly below the $13.81 consensus estimate, while projecting FY2027 EPS of $17.16.
• Despite several analysts reducing price targets, Spotify maintains a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating from analysts, with an average target price of $610.25 versus a referenced share price of $528.96.
• Spotify’s latest quarter missed earnings and revenue estimates, although revenue grew 13.9% year over year; insiders have also sold shares worth approximately $24.7 million over the past 90 days, primarily to cover tax obligations.

Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT - Free Report) - Erste Group Bank decreased their FY2026 earnings per share estimates for shares of Spotify Technology in a report released on Thursday, October 8th. Erste Group Bank analyst S. Lingnau now forecasts that the company will earn $13.71 per share for the year, down from their previous estimate of $14.07. The consensus estimate for Spotify Technology's current full-year earnings is $13.81 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for Spotify Technology's FY2027 earnings at $17.16 EPS.

Several other equities analysts also recently commented on SPOT. Wells Fargo & Company cut their target price on Spotify Technology from $600.00 to $570.00 and set an "overweight" rating for the company in a research report on Thursday, July 9th. Phillip Securities upgraded Spotify Technology to a "buy" rating and set a $650.00 price target on the stock in a research report on Tuesday, August 11th. KeyCorp dropped their price objective on Spotify Technology from $680.00 to $660.00 and set an "overweight" rating for the company in a research note on Thursday, October 1st. Guggenheim reissued a "buy" rating and set a $565.00 price objective on shares of Spotify Technology in a report on Wednesday, August 5th. Finally, Benchmark cut their price objective on Spotify Technology from $695.00 to $650.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, July 22nd. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, twenty-three have given a Buy rating and seven have assigned a Hold rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, Spotify Technology currently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $610.25.

Spotify Technology Price Performance

SPOT opened at $528.96 on Tuesday. Spotify Technology has a fifty-two week low of $405.00 and a fifty-two week high of $700.12. The firm's fifty day moving average price is $518.49 and its two-hundred day moving average price is $494.22. The company has a market capitalization of $108.90 billion, a P/E ratio of 32.94, a P/E/G ratio of 1.62 and a beta of 1.61.

Spotify Technology (NYSE:SPOT - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, August 4th. The company reported $3.03 EPS for the quarter, missing analysts' consensus estimates of $3.16 by ($0.13). The business had revenue of $5.45 billion during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.47 billion. Spotify Technology had a return on equity of 41.39% and a net margin of 18.44%. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 13.9% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted ($0.42) earnings per share.

Insider Buying and Selling at Spotify Technology

In related news, CEO Gustav Söderström sold 20,913 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, September 14th. The shares were sold at an average price of $544.19, for a total transaction of $11,380,645.47. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer owned 20,025 shares in the company, valued at approximately $10,897,404.75. The trade was a 51.08% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which can be accessed through this link. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Also, CEO Alex Norström sold 5,436 shares of the business's stock in a transaction on Monday, August 3rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $502.10, for a total transaction of $2,729,415.60. Following the completion of the transaction, the chief executive officer directly owned 66,773 shares of the company's stock, valued at $33,526,723.30. This trade represents a 7.53% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The sale was made to cover tax withholding obligations related to the vesting of equity awards. Insiders have sold 47,182 shares of company stock worth $24,677,392 in the last ninety days. 0.40% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.

Institutional Trading of Spotify Technology

Institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Pin Oak Investment Advisors Inc. bought a new position in Spotify Technology during the second quarter worth about $27,000. Osbon Capital Management LLC bought a new stake in shares of Spotify Technology in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $35,000. Portus Wealth Advisors LLC bought a new stake in shares of Spotify Technology in the first quarter valued at approximately $32,000. Whipplewood Advisors LLC lifted its stake in shares of Spotify Technology by 423.1% during the 1st quarter. Whipplewood Advisors LLC now owns 68 shares of the company's stock valued at $33,000 after buying an additional 55 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Palladiem LLC purchased a new stake in shares of Spotify Technology during the 1st quarter valued at approximately $34,000. Institutional investors own 84.09% of the company's stock.

Trending Headlines about Spotify Technology

Here are the key news stories impacting Spotify Technology this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Joe Rogan deal extended: Spotify signed a new multiyear licensing agreement with The Joe Rogan Experience. Retaining one of the platform’s most popular podcasts could support user engagement, advertising revenue and subscription retention. Spotify Won't Let Go of Joe Rogan, Podcast King Secures Another Multiyear Deal
• Positive Sentiment: Audiobooks expanding globally: Spotify plans to increase audiobook availability from 22 markets to more than 180 by the end of 2026. The rollout broadens Spotify’s addressable market and could create another revenue stream beyond music and podcasts. Spotify Stock Is Up Nearly 9% Since September 30 as Audiobooks Go Global
• Positive Sentiment: New software commercialization initiative: Spotify launched “Spotify Technology” to sell internal software tools to other companies. Management describes the effort as part of Spotify becoming an “R&D operating system,” potentially creating incremental enterprise revenue and improving returns on its technology investments. Spotify launches Spotify Technology to sell its internal software tools
• Neutral Sentiment: Strong long-term narrative: Commentary highlights Spotify’s roughly 235% three-year share-price increase, expanding product lines and potential cash-flow growth. However, bullish valuation scenarios remain well above the current analyst consensus, making execution important. Spotify Stock Looks Discounted As Its 235% Run Continues
• Negative Sentiment: Cantor Fitzgerald cuts target: Cantor lowered its price target from $530 to $490 and kept a neutral rating, implying approximately 7.4% downside from the referenced price. The downgrade reflects a more cautious view of near-term valuation and is the clearest immediate pressure on SPOT. Spotify Technology Price Target Cut to $490 by Cantor Fitzgerald

About Spotify Technology

Spotify Technology SA is a global audio streaming company that operates the Spotify platform. The service provides users with access to a broad catalog of music, podcasts and audiobooks, along with personalized recommendations, playlists and other discovery features.

Spotify offers a subscription-based Premium service with enhanced listening features, as well as an ad-supported service available at no direct cost to users. The company generates revenue primarily through Premium subscriptions and advertising, including audio, video and display advertising delivered across its platform.

Founded in 2006 by Daniel Ek and Martin Lorentzon, Spotify is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, and serves listeners, creators, advertisers and other partners across markets worldwide.

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