FY2026 Earnings Forecast for ASML Issued By Erste Group Bank

Key Points

• Erste Group Bank lowered ASML’s FY2026 EPS forecast to $44.01 from $45.10, slightly above the $43.86 consensus estimate; it projects FY2027 EPS of $60.69.
• ASML shares opened at $1,750.24, down 1.7%, while analysts maintained a broadly positive outlook with a “Moderate Buy” consensus and an average price target of $2,085.38.
• Key catalysts include ASML’s EUV monopoly, continued share buybacks and planned 10% increases in replacement-parts pricing, though elevated valuation, China-related competition and concerns over AI funding remain risks.

ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ:ASML - Free Report) - Research analysts at Erste Group Bank lowered their FY2026 EPS estimates for shares of ASML in a research report issued to clients and investors on Thursday, October 8th. Erste Group Bank analyst H. Engel now expects that the semiconductor company will earn $44.01 per share for the year, down from their previous estimate of $45.10. The consensus estimate for ASML's current full-year earnings is $43.86 per share. Erste Group Bank also issued estimates for ASML's FY2027 earnings at $60.69 EPS.

ASML (NASDAQ:ASML - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Sunday, June 28th. The semiconductor company reported $8.65 earnings per share for the quarter. The company had revenue of $10.62 billion for the quarter. ASML had a net margin of 30.11% and a return on equity of 52.71%.

A number of other research analysts have also recently commented on ASML. Cantor Fitzgerald reaffirmed an "overweight" rating on shares of ASML in a research note on Monday, September 14th. Zacks Research lowered ASML from a "strong-buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research note on Friday, July 3rd. Citigroup reissued a "buy" rating on shares of ASML in a research note on Friday, July 17th. Barclays restated an "overweight" rating on shares of ASML in a report on Thursday, July 16th. Finally, Wall Street Zen downgraded ASML from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Saturday, August 15th. Three investment analysts have rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, nineteen have assigned a Buy rating, two have given a Hold rating and three have issued a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock currently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus price target of $2,085.38.

ASML Stock Down 1.7%

Shares of NASDAQ:ASML opened at $1,750.24 on Tuesday. ASML has a 1 year low of $946.11 and a 1 year high of $1,999.96. The business has a 50 day simple moving average of $1,742.49 and a two-hundred day simple moving average of $1,663.83. The firm has a market capitalization of $688.33 billion, a PE ratio of 54.46, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 0.80 and a beta of 1.77. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09, a current ratio of 1.33 and a quick ratio of 0.80.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On ASML

A number of hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in the stock. NorthCrest Asset Manangement LLC raised its stake in ASML by 0.5% in the 3rd quarter. NorthCrest Asset Manangement LLC now owns 2,432 shares of the semiconductor company's stock worth $4,305,000 after acquiring an additional 12 shares during the last quarter. JGP Wealth Management LLC grew its stake in ASML by 20.2% during the 3rd quarter. JGP Wealth Management LLC now owns 739 shares of the semiconductor company's stock valued at $1,338,000 after purchasing an additional 124 shares during the last quarter. Burkett Asset Management Ltd increased its holdings in shares of ASML by 0.5% in the third quarter. Burkett Asset Management Ltd now owns 2,766 shares of the semiconductor company's stock valued at $5,011,000 after purchasing an additional 14 shares during the period. Oak Grove Capital LLC increased its holdings in shares of ASML by 55.4% in the third quarter. Oak Grove Capital LLC now owns 5,810 shares of the semiconductor company's stock valued at $10,526,000 after purchasing an additional 2,072 shares during the period. Finally, Gilpin Wealth Management LLC raised its stake in shares of ASML by 275.0% in the third quarter. Gilpin Wealth Management LLC now owns 15 shares of the semiconductor company's stock worth $27,000 after purchasing an additional 11 shares during the last quarter. 26.07% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

ASML Cuts Dividend

The business also recently disclosed a quarterly dividend, which was paid on Wednesday, August 5th. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, July 28th were given a $2.1507 dividend. This is a negative change from ASML's previous quarterly dividend of $3.1771. The ex-dividend date of this dividend was Tuesday, July 28th. This represents a $8.60 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.5%. ASML's dividend payout ratio is presently 22.62%.

ASML News Roundup

Here are the key news stories impacting ASML this week:

• Positive Sentiment: ASML’s buyback program continued, with the company repurchasing 270,000 shares for approximately €456.3 million from October 5–9. Buybacks can support per-share value and signal management confidence. ASML reports transactions under its current share buyback program
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst sentiment remains broadly constructive, with sell-side brokerages assigning ASML a “Moderate Buy” consensus and other coverage maintaining Buy-equivalent recommendations. ASML Holding rated Moderate Buy
• Positive Sentiment: ASML remains the only commercial supplier of extreme ultraviolet lithography systems, giving it a critical position in the production of leading-edge AI and high-performance chips. Analysts expect accelerating revenue growth and potentially strong fourth-quarter guidance. ASML stock ahead of Q3 earnings
• Neutral Sentiment: CEO Christophe Fouquet said the AI chip boom could extend beyond 2028, supporting long-term equipment demand. However, Broadcom CEO Hock Tan warned that capital availability could become the industry’s biggest constraint, raising questions about the pace and durability of AI-related orders. ASML CEO discusses AI chip boom and financing concerns
• Positive Sentiment: ASML plans to raise replacement and maintenance-parts prices for Samsung and SK hynix by 10% beginning in January. The move could increase installed-base revenue and encourage customers to upgrade lithography equipment. ASML earnings preview
• Negative Sentiment: European chip stocks sold off amid growing concern that China’s CXMT and other domestic chipmakers could intensify competition, while investors questioned the sustainability of AI funding. The broader technology-stock decline amplified pressure on ASML. ASML and European chip stocks fall on CXMT threat and AI funding fears
• Negative Sentiment: ASML’s substantial prior rally and elevated valuation leave the stock vulnerable to profit-taking if upcoming results, orders, or guidance fail to exceed already-high expectations.

ASML Company Profile

ASML Holding N.V. is a Netherlands-based technology company that develops and manufactures advanced lithography systems used by semiconductor manufacturers to produce integrated circuits. Its equipment projects patterns onto silicon wafers, enabling the creation of increasingly smaller and more powerful semiconductor features.

ASML's product portfolio includes extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems, deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography systems, and related metrology and inspection solutions.

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