Northland Securities Forecasts BigBear.ai FY2026 Earnings

Key Points

• Northland Securities cut its FY2026 EPS forecast for BigBear.ai to a loss of $0.36 per share from a previous loss estimate of $0.22, below the $0.22-per-share consensus loss forecast.
• BigBear.ai reported a third-quarter loss of $0.19 per share, missing expectations, despite revenue rising 31.5% year over year to $43.58 million and exceeding the $29.93 million consensus estimate.
• Analyst sentiment remains cautious: the stock carries a consensus “Hold” rating with a $4.50 target price, while Cantor Fitzgerald cut its target to $3.00 and other firms issued or reiterated neutral-to-sell ratings.

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI - Free Report) - Stock analysts at Northland Securities dropped their FY2026 earnings estimates for shares of BigBear.ai in a research report issued on Wednesday, October 28th. Northland Securities analyst M. Latimore now anticipates that the company will earn ($0.36) per share for the year, down from their previous forecast of ($0.22). The consensus estimate for BigBear.ai's current full-year earnings is ($0.22) per share.

Several other research firms have also issued reports on BBAI. Weiss Ratings reissued a "sell (d-)" rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a report on Thursday, October 15th. Wall Street Zen downgraded BigBear.ai from a "hold" rating to a "sell" rating in a research note on Saturday, August 1st. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered their price objective on BigBear.ai from $4.00 to $3.00 and set a "neutral" rating on the stock in a research report on Wednesday. Finally, Citigroup reiterated a "market perform" rating on shares of BigBear.ai in a research note on Wednesday. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Buy rating, two have issued a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat, BigBear.ai currently has an average rating of "Hold" and a consensus target price of $4.50.

BigBear.ai Price Performance

Shares of BigBear.ai stock opened at $2.65 on Friday. The stock has a market cap of $1.27 billion, a P/E ratio of -7.15 and a beta of 3.37. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.01, a quick ratio of 5.67 and a current ratio of 5.67. The stock's fifty day moving average is $2.68 and its 200 day moving average is $3.65. BigBear.ai has a one year low of $2.07 and a one year high of $7.40.

BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI - Get Free Report) last announced its earnings results on Tuesday, October 27th. The company reported ($0.19) earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of ($0.06) by ($0.13). The business had revenue of $43.58 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $29.93 million. BigBear.ai had a negative net margin of 126.84% and a negative return on equity of 14.94%. The business's quarterly revenue was up 31.5% compared to the same quarter last year. During the same quarter last year, the firm posted ($0.03) earnings per share.

Institutional Trading of BigBear.ai

Several institutional investors have recently made changes to their positions in the business. Headlands Technologies LLC increased its holdings in BigBear.ai by 351.8% in the 2nd quarter. Headlands Technologies LLC now owns 512,339 shares of the company's stock valued at $1,880,000 after acquiring an additional 398,936 shares during the last quarter. Bank of New York Mellon Corp purchased a new stake in BigBear.ai in the 2nd quarter worth $5,243,000. WINTON GROUP Ltd bought a new position in shares of BigBear.ai during the 2nd quarter valued at about $1,362,000. First Trust Advisors LP boosted its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 18.1% during the 1st quarter. First Trust Advisors LP now owns 2,419,242 shares of the company's stock valued at $8,516,000 after purchasing an additional 369,981 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Sanctuary Advisors LLC boosted its holdings in shares of BigBear.ai by 34.2% during the 1st quarter. Sanctuary Advisors LLC now owns 25,517 shares of the company's stock valued at $90,000 after purchasing an additional 6,506 shares during the last quarter. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 7.55% of the company's stock.

Key Stories Impacting BigBear.ai

Here are the key news stories impacting BigBear.ai this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Revenue and guidance significantly exceeded expectations. Third-quarter revenue rose 31% year over year to $43.6 million, well above the roughly $29.9 million analyst estimate. BigBear.ai also raised its full-year 2026 revenue outlook to $150 million-$165 million, substantially above the prior market expectation of approximately $112.9 million. BigBear.ai raises FY 2026 revenue guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Defense contracts and AI demand are supporting growth. Recent coverage highlights contract wins, rising backlog and government demand for BigBear.ai’s AI and decision-intelligence tools. Management also warned that AI is increasing cybersecurity threats, potentially creating additional demand from government and private-sector customers. BigBear.ai Q3 earnings call transcript
• Positive Sentiment: Trading activity suggests continued speculative interest. Investors purchased a high volume of BBAI call options, indicating that some traders are positioning for further gains, although options activity can also increase volatility. Investors buy BigBear.ai call options
• Neutral Sentiment: BigBear.ai’s growth profile compares favorably with Booz Allen, but profitability does not. Analysts noted BBAI’s faster growth and contract momentum, while Booz Allen Hamilton offers stronger earnings, profitability and return on equity. The comparison reinforces BBAI’s higher-growth, higher-risk profile. BigBear.ai versus Booz Allen
• Negative Sentiment: Losses and execution remain major risks. BigBear.ai reported a quarterly loss of $0.19 per share, worse than the $0.06 consensus loss, while commentary described execution as lacking and questioned whether the stock already reflects too much future sales growth. BigBear.ai Q3 review
• Negative Sentiment: Valuation skepticism has increased. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its BBAI price target from $4 to $3 and assigned a neutral rating, signaling limited upside after accounting for the company’s growth prospects. Cantor Fitzgerald rating changes

BigBear.ai Company Profile

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc NYSE: BBAI is an artificial intelligence company that develops decision-intelligence solutions for government and commercial organizations. Its technologies are designed to help customers analyze complex data, identify risks and opportunities, and support planning and operational decision-making.

The company provides artificial intelligence and machine-learning capabilities across areas such as supply-chain management, cyber operations, logistics, autonomous systems, predictive analytics, and computer vision.

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