Northland Securities Weighs in on Geo Group FY2027 Earnings

Key Points

• Northland Securities estimates Geo Group will earn $1.54 per share in FY2027, above the current full-year consensus of $1.31. The firm maintained an “Outperform” rating and a $40 price target.
• Geo Group’s latest quarterly results exceeded expectations, with EPS of $0.37 versus the $0.29 consensus and revenue of $732.1 million, up 15.1% year over year.
• Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, with a consensus “Buy” rating and an average $40 target price, although recent insider share sales and the potential loss of future revenue after the Adelanto facility sale present risks.

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO - Free Report) - Investment analysts at Northland Securities issued their FY2027 earnings per share estimates for shares of Geo Group in a research report issued on Tuesday, October 6th. Northland Securities analyst G. Gibas forecasts that the real estate investment trust will post earnings per share of $1.54 for the year. Northland Securities currently has a "Outperform" rating and a $40.00 target price on the stock. The consensus estimate for Geo Group's current full-year earnings is $1.31 per share.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08. Geo Group had a return on equity of 10.42% and a net margin of 10.31%.The business had revenue of $732.07 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $721.43 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the company earned $0.22 earnings per share. The company's quarterly revenue was up 15.1% on a year-over-year basis.

Other analysts have also issued reports about the company. Wall Street Zen lowered Geo Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. Noble Financial reissued an "outperform" rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Monday, August 10th. UBS Group restated a "buy" rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Tuesday. Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. Finally, JonesTrading reiterated a "buy" rating and issued a $40.00 target price on shares of Geo Group in a research note on Tuesday. One analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, four have issued a Buy rating and one has given a Hold rating to the stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has a consensus rating of "Buy" and an average target price of $40.00.

Geo Group Price Performance

Shares of NYSE:GEO opened at $29.91 on Wednesday. Geo Group has a twelve month low of $12.51 and a twelve month high of $33.17. The firm has a market capitalization of $3.94 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.11, a PEG ratio of 1.77 and a beta of 0.77. The stock's 50 day moving average is $31.24 and its 200-day moving average is $26.46. The company has a quick ratio of 1.65, a current ratio of 1.65 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.00.

Institutional Trading of Geo Group

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of GEO. BlackRock Inc. bought a new position in Geo Group in the 2nd quarter valued at $570,744,000. Pentwater Capital Management LP bought a new position in shares of Geo Group in the second quarter worth $312,698,000. Hsbc Holdings PLC purchased a new stake in shares of Geo Group in the second quarter worth $118,673,000. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC raised its position in shares of Geo Group by 14.2% in the first quarter. Cooper Creek Partners Management LLC now owns 5,314,006 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $89,328,000 after buying an additional 661,281 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Rubric Capital Management LP boosted its stake in Geo Group by 7.3% during the first quarter. Rubric Capital Management LP now owns 3,743,180 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $62,923,000 after buying an additional 256,265 shares during the period. Institutional investors own 76.10% of the company's stock.

Insider Activity

In other news, insider Ronald A. Brack sold 7,000 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Friday, August 21st. The shares were sold at an average price of $32.00, for a total value of $224,000.00. Following the sale, the insider directly owned 71,614 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $2,291,648. This represents a 8.90% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through the SEC website. Also, VP Matthew Albence sold 11,797 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 11th. The shares were sold at an average price of $31.45, for a total transaction of $371,015.65. Following the completion of the transaction, the vice president owned 87,602 shares of the company's stock, valued at $2,755,082.90. This trade represents a 11.87% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. In the last 90 days, insiders sold 28,797 shares of company stock valued at $911,916. 4.98% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.

More Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: GEO completed the $950 million sale of its three-facility Adelanto, California ICE processing-center complex, providing significant proceeds for debt reduction and shareholder returns. GEO Group Adelanto sale and buyback announcement
• Positive Sentiment: The company increased its share-repurchase authorization to $1.25 billion. A larger buyback could support earnings per share and provide a source of demand for GEO stock, assuming the company executes the program. GEO Group expands share buyback
• Positive Sentiment: GEO announced the redemption of all $650 million of senior secured notes due 2029 and amended and extended its revolving credit facility. Retiring debt may reduce interest costs and improve financial flexibility, while the revolver preserves liquidity. GEO Group debt redemption and credit facility update
• Positive Sentiment: JonesTrading reaffirmed its Buy rating and assigned a $40 price target, indicating substantial upside from the recent trading level. JonesTrading GEO Group rating
• Neutral Sentiment: The Adelanto transaction monetizes assets at an attractive price and supports capital returns, but investors may also focus on the loss of operating assets and related future revenue and cash flow.
• Negative Sentiment: After recently reaching a 52-week high, GEO may be experiencing profit-taking as investors reassess valuation and the longer-term earnings impact of selling the facilities. U.S. purchase of GEO Group California facilities

About Geo Group

The GEO Group, Inc NYSE: GEO is a provider of correctional, detention and community-reentry services. The company designs, finances, develops and manages secure facilities for federal, state and local government agencies, as well as certain international government clients. Its facilities house individuals in pretrial detention, immigration detention and correctional programs.

GEO also provides correctional and behavioral healthcare, transportation and security services, and electronic monitoring technologies.

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