Zacks Research Has Weak Forecast for Dollar Tree Q4 Earnings

Key Points

• Zacks Research lowered Dollar Tree’s Q4 2027 EPS forecast to $2.63 from $2.76, although it projects full-year 2028 and 2029 earnings of $7.89 and $8.86 per share, respectively.
• Dollar Tree’s latest quarterly results exceeded expectations, with EPS of $2.70 versus the $1.15 consensus and revenue of $4.89 billion, up 7% year over year. The company also guided to fiscal 2026 EPS of $7.70–$8.05.
• Analyst sentiment remains mixed, resulting in a consensus “Hold” rating and $131.68 price target. Dollar Tree has also authorized a $2.5 billion share-repurchase program, covering up to 10.7% of outstanding shares.

Dollar Tree, Inc. (NASDAQ:DLTR - Free Report) - Zacks Research cut their Q4 2027 EPS estimates for Dollar Tree in a research note issued to investors on Thursday, September 10th. Zacks Research analyst Team now expects that the company will post earnings of $2.63 per share for the quarter, down from their previous forecast of $2.76. The consensus estimate for Dollar Tree's current full-year earnings is $7.84 per share. Zacks Research also issued estimates for Dollar Tree's Q1 2028 earnings at $1.93 EPS, Q2 2028 earnings at $1.36 EPS, Q3 2028 earnings at $1.39 EPS, Q4 2028 earnings at $3.22 EPS, FY2028 earnings at $7.89 EPS, Q1 2029 earnings at $2.18 EPS and FY2029 earnings at $8.86 EPS.

Dollar Tree (NASDAQ:DLTR - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 27th. The company reported $2.70 earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $1.15 by $1.55. Dollar Tree had a net margin of 8.03% and a return on equity of 38.61%. The company had revenue of $4.89 billion for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $4.86 billion. During the same period last year, the firm posted $0.77 EPS. The company's revenue for the quarter was up 7.0% on a year-over-year basis. Dollar Tree has set its Q3 2026 guidance at 0.800-0.950 EPS and its FY 2026 guidance at 7.700-8.050 EPS.

A number of other equities analysts also recently commented on DLTR. Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft lifted their target price on Dollar Tree from $99.00 to $102.00 and gave the company a "hold" rating in a research note on Thursday, June 4th. JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased their price target on Dollar Tree from $160.00 to $170.00 and gave the stock an "overweight" rating in a research report on Monday, July 6th. The Goldman Sachs Group reissued a "neutral" rating and issued a $131.00 price target on shares of Dollar Tree in a report on Monday, August 31st. Wall Street Zen upgraded Dollar Tree from a "hold" rating to a "buy" rating in a research report on Saturday, August 22nd. Finally, UBS Group upped their price objective on Dollar Tree from $145.00 to $150.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research note on Friday, August 28th. Eleven analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, thirteen have given a Hold rating and two have assigned a Sell rating to the stock. Based on data from MarketBeat.com, the stock has a consensus rating of "Hold" and a consensus price target of $131.68.

Dollar Tree Price Performance

DLTR opened at $118.66 on Friday. The company has a quick ratio of 0.39, a current ratio of 1.13 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.86. The company's 50-day moving average price is $127.39 and its 200 day moving average price is $114.63. Dollar Tree has a fifty-two week low of $84.71 and a fifty-two week high of $142.40. The firm has a market cap of $22.26 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.49, a price-to-earnings-growth ratio of 1.11 and a beta of 0.66.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Dollar Tree

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in DLTR. Cullen Frost Bankers Inc. acquired a new position in Dollar Tree during the 4th quarter worth $25,000. Reflection Asset Management acquired a new position in shares of Dollar Tree during the fourth quarter valued at $25,000. Covestor Ltd increased its holdings in shares of Dollar Tree by 60.9% during the fourth quarter. Covestor Ltd now owns 222 shares of the company's stock valued at $27,000 after purchasing an additional 84 shares during the period. Basecamp Wealth Advisors LLC raised its stake in shares of Dollar Tree by 59.9% during the first quarter. Basecamp Wealth Advisors LLC now owns 259 shares of the company's stock valued at $28,000 after purchasing an additional 97 shares in the last quarter. Finally, Wilkerson Advisory Group LLC raised its stake in shares of Dollar Tree by 80.1% during the first quarter. Wilkerson Advisory Group LLC now owns 263 shares of the company's stock valued at $29,000 after purchasing an additional 117 shares in the last quarter. 97.40% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Insider Activity

In other Dollar Tree news, insider Robert Aflatooni sold 2,500 shares of the company's stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 31st. The shares were sold at an average price of $126.01, for a total value of $315,025.00. Following the completion of the transaction, the insider owned 24,820 shares in the company, valued at approximately $3,127,568.20. This represents a 9.15% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this link. Also, Director Stephanie Stahl sold 1,185 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction that occurred on Friday, September 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $131.47, for a total transaction of $155,791.95. Following the completion of the sale, the director owned 4,089 shares in the company, valued at $537,580.83. The trade was a 22.47% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. 7.10% of the stock is currently owned by corporate insiders.

Dollar Tree announced that its board has authorized a stock repurchase program on Thursday, July 2nd that authorizes the company to repurchase $2.50 billion in shares. This repurchase authorization authorizes the company to reacquire up to 10.7% of its shares through open market purchases. Shares repurchase programs are usually a sign that the company's leadership believes its stock is undervalued.

Key Stories Impacting Dollar Tree

Here are the key news stories impacting Dollar Tree this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Zacks raised its FY2028 EPS forecast to $7.89 from $7.67 and its FY2029 forecast to $8.86 from $8.62. Estimates were also increased for Q1 2028, Q2 2028, Q4 2028 and Q1 2029, indicating improved expectations for Dollar Tree’s future profitability.
• Positive Sentiment: The FY2028 estimate of $7.89 is slightly above the current-year consensus estimate of $7.84, while the FY2029 forecast implies further earnings growth. Such upward revisions can support the valuation of DLTR by improving expectations for future cash generation and earnings momentum.
• Neutral Sentiment: A reported short-interest update showed zero shares sold short and a zero-day days-to-cover ratio. Because the figures appear inconsistent and include an invalid percentage change, the data offers little reliable information about short-term trading pressure.
• Negative Sentiment: Zacks lowered its Q4 2027 EPS estimate to $2.63 from $2.76 and its Q3 2028 estimate to $1.39 from $1.53. These reductions partially offset the broader series of upward revisions and suggest that earnings growth may be uneven across individual quarters.
• Negative Sentiment: A commentary article highlighted reasons investors might avoid DLTR and recommended another stock instead, adding a bearish opinion to the news flow. The article is opinion-based rather than a formal analyst estimate. 3 reasons to avoid DLTR and 1 stock to buy instead

About Dollar Tree

Dollar Tree, Inc operates discount variety stores under the Dollar Tree brand. Its stores offer a broad selection of merchandise at value-oriented prices, including consumable products, household supplies, seasonal items, toys, health and personal-care products, and other general merchandise. Product assortments may include both nationally recognized brands and private-label goods.

The company traces its origins to discount retail operations established in the 1950s and adopted the Dollar Tree name in the early 1990s.

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