ATI Targets $7 Billion by 2029, Sees More Runway in Aerospace and Defense

Key Points

• ATI is targeting $7 billion in revenue by 2029, with margins in the high-20% to low-30% range and free cash flow double its 2026 level. CEO Kim Fields characterized 2029 as a milestone, not a peak.
• Faster aircraft production, recovering wide-body demand, higher defense spending, and market-share gains could accelerate growth. ATI is seeing strong missile-related inquiries and benefits from its position as one of only two qualified suppliers of premium-quality jet-engine titanium.
• ATI aims to double commercial energy revenue and its share of sales, supported by nuclear and industrial gas turbine demand and a backlog exceeding $4 billion. The company also plans to improve cash generation through efficiency measures and share repurchases.

ATI NYSE: ATI expects growth in aerospace, defense and specialty energy to extend beyond 2029, with potential upside from faster aircraft production, increased defense spending and market-share gains, Chairman, President and CEO Kim Fields said during a company event.

Fields described ATI’s 2029 framework as a “guidepost,” rather than a limit on its potential. The company met its 2027 targets one year early, she said, and is on a path to become a $7 billion company by 2029, with margins in the high 20s to low 30% range and free cash flow double the amount generated in 2026.

“Let me be clear. It is not a peak,” Fields said of 2029. “It’s a way station up the mountain.”

Aircraft and defense demand

Fields said ATI’s airframe assumptions are close to, or slightly below, consensus build-rate expectations. Faster narrow-body production or a recovery in wide-body aircraft builds could help the company reach the upper end of its range or achieve its goals sooner, she said.

The guidance also does not include much of the increased defense spending that has been discussed, Fields said. ATI has received missile-related orders and inquiries substantially above those orders as the industrial base ramps up, she added.

Chief Commercial Officer Martin Pike said ATI supplies materials and parts for both new jet engines and maintenance, repair and overhaul work, with similar margins across the two. He expects the installed engine base and associated service demand to grow into 2030 and beyond.

Share gains and capacity investments

Fields said ATI generally wins share through performance, quality, service and technical capabilities rather than price. She cited premium-quality titanium for jet engines, where she said ATI is one of two qualified suppliers worldwide. Challenges at the other supplier have accelerated demand for ATI’s products, she said.

ATI has also begun supplying a sixth jet-engine alloy. Fields said the company aims to increase its share enough to supply the material internally for its own isothermal forged parts, an outcome that could double its current position in that alloy.

Lead times for isothermal forgings are currently more than two years, Fields said. The industry may need one or two additional forges by the end of the decade, but ATI is still evaluating timing and wants firm customer commitments before starting a project, she said.

Chief Financial Officer Rob Foster said ATI’s organic growth capital projects are scheduled to come online at various points in 2028. He said incremental margins could be temporarily muted during commissioning, qualification and ramp-up.

Energy growth and cash flow

ATI is targeting a doubling of commercial energy revenue and its percentage of sales, Fields said. Nuclear energy represents the predominant portion of the business today, while industrial gas turbines are another source of growth. Fields said ATI has seen no reduction in customer demand and has more than $4 billion in backlog.

Foster said ATI is one of three Western producers capable of making nuclear-grade zirconium and hafnium and the only independent producer among them. The company sells to vertically integrated producers as well as customers without their own supply chains, he said.

ATI also plans to improve cash generation through its Elevation program, including production planning, inventory management and operational efficiency. Foster said inventory stood at approximately $1.7 billion, above the efficiency level the company is targeting. Fields said ATI intends to return value to shareholders through share repurchases.

About ATI (NYSE:ATI)

ATI Inc. produces specialty materials and components for aerospace and defense, energy, medical, and other industrial markets. Its materials include titanium and titanium alloys, nickel- and cobalt-based alloys, specialty stainless steels, and other engineered metals designed for demanding applications. The company makes products such as sheet, plate, strip, and bar, along with precision forgings, castings, and engineered components. ATI serves customers worldwide through manufacturing and distribution operations in North America and other regions.

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