Trimble Sees 17% EPS Growth Despite Agricultural and Transportation Headwinds

Key Points

• Trimble expects about 17% EPS growth this year, despite agricultural positioning-service weakness and pressure in European transportation markets. It has repurchased more than $550 million of shares year to date, with about $770 million remaining in its buyback authorization.
• Its construction software business remains healthy: AECO net retention was about 110% excluding SketchUp, and full-year operating-margin guidance rose to 36%. By contrast, Field Systems ARR growth is now expected to be in the low single digits exiting the year amid weaker correction-service demand and product transitions.
• Trimble is exploring AI tools and potential consumption-based pricing, while its transportation and logistics review could lead to either a sale or continued ownership. The company has not provided an updated timeline for that review.

Trimble NASDAQ: TRMB expects approximately 17% earnings-per-share growth this year, even as pressure in agricultural positioning services and European transportation markets weighs on annual recurring revenue, Chief Financial Officer Phil Sawarynski said at a Baird conference.

Sawarynski said the company’s construction software business remains healthy, while Trimble is developing artificial intelligence tools that it believes could expand its addressable market. He also said a strategic review of the transportation and logistics business remains underway, with no update to its expected timeline.

Almost 80% of Trimble’s revenue is software, services or recurring revenue, Sawarynski said. The company has repurchased more than $550 million of shares year to date and has approximately $770 million remaining under its share repurchase authorization. Since the beginning of 2025, it has repurchased about $1.4 billion of shares, he said.

Construction Software Growth and Field Systems Headwinds

Sawarynski described the architecture, engineering, construction and owner software business, known as AECO, as fundamentally sound. Net retention was around 110% excluding SketchUp, which has a consumer component, and gross retention was stable, he said. Net new annual recurring revenue, or ARR, has grown during the year and is expected to be highest at year-end.

Trimble raised its full-year operating margin guidance for AECO to 36%, approximately 100 basis points above its earlier forecast, Sawarynski said. The segment is approaching $1.7 billion in ARR this year, and roughly one-third of its bookings come from new customers, he added.

Field Systems faces several ARR headwinds. Trimble is winding down a low-margin, white-label data processing product and replacing it with an internally developed offering embedded in WorksManager. Sawarynski said the replacement had a beta release at the company’s Dimensions user conference and is expected to be available in January, with ARR growing from an effectively zero base during 2027.

Demand for agricultural correction services has also been challenged, particularly in South America, which Sawarynski attributed largely to market conditions. Field Systems has about $400 million in ARR, roughly half of which comes from positioning services. Approximately half of that positioning-services amount relates to correction services, with a large portion focused on agriculture, he said.

Renewals of correction services bundled with hardware in construction and geospatial markets have also fallen short of Trimble’s expectations. Sawarynski said the company adjusted its assumptions and lowered its expectations for Field Systems ARR growth to low single digits exiting the year, incorporating lessons from the renewals into its outlook for 2027.

AI Pricing and Transportation Review

Sawarynski said Trimble’s connection between physical fieldwork and office software gives it a foundation for AI tools that can work across applications and customer workflows. Most of its software is currently sold through named-user licenses, but the company sees an opportunity to add consumption-based pricing for AI agents.

In SketchUp, customers receive a set number of Trimble Credits with their subscriptions and can purchase more after using them. Sawarynski said purchases doubled quarter over quarter, although the base remains small and is not material to results.

Within Trimble, AI and automation are helping accelerate product development and improve back-office efficiency, he said. The company has discussed removing roughly $80 million in annual run-rate costs this year, with changes in how it operates contributing to those efficiencies.

On the transportation and logistics review, Sawarynski said Trimble is considering the interests of shareholders, customers and employees. The review could result in either a sale or retention of the business, he said, with shareholder value guiding the outcome. In Europe, lower spot prices and transaction volumes have affected the Transporeon business, though gross customer retention is close to 100%, he said.

About Trimble (NASDAQ:TRMB)

Trimble Inc. develops technology that connects the physical and digital worlds to help customers plan, build, and manage infrastructure and other assets. Its offerings combine positioning technologies, hardware, software, and data services for industries including construction, geospatial, transportation, and agriculture. Products and services include GNSS and surveying equipment, machine-control systems, mapping and measurement tools, and software for design, project management, fleet operations, and asset tracking.

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