Geo Group (NYSE:GEO) Releases Q3 2026 Earnings Guidance

Key Points

• GEO raised its 2026 outlook: Full-year EPS guidance is now $1.27-$1.32, above the $1.22 consensus, while revenue guidance is $3.0-$3.1 billion.
• Third-quarter guidance exceeds expectations: GEO forecast EPS of $0.35-$0.37 versus the $0.30 consensus; revenue guidance of $755 million-$805 million brackets the $765.1 million estimate.
• Analyst sentiment remains generally positive, but risks persist: GEO has an average “Buy” rating and a $36.50 price target, though lower-than-expected fourth-quarter guidance and regulatory scrutiny could create near-term challenges.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) issued an update on its third quarter 2026 earnings guidance on Thursday morning. The company provided earnings per share guidance of 0.350-0.370 for the period, compared to the consensus EPS estimate of 0.300. The company issued revenue guidance of $755.0 million-$805.0 million, compared to the consensus revenue estimate of $765.1 million. Geo Group also updated its FY 2026 guidance to 1.270-1.320 EPS.

Geo Group Stock Down 0.0%

GEO stock opened at $31.28 on Thursday. Geo Group has a fifty-two week low of $12.51 and a fifty-two week high of $32.25. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06, a current ratio of 1.75 and a quick ratio of 1.75. The business has a 50-day moving average of $28.96 and a 200-day moving average of $21.56. The stock has a market capitalization of $4.18 billion, a P/E ratio of 15.88, a P/E/G ratio of 1.86 and a beta of 0.79.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.37 EPS for the quarter, topping the consensus estimate of $0.29 by $0.08. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.00% and a return on equity of 9.43%. On average, sell-side analysts anticipate that Geo Group will post 1.2 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades

Several equities analysts have recently weighed in on GEO shares. Zacks Research raised shares of Geo Group from a "hold" rating to a "strong-buy" rating in a research report on Monday, July 20th. Weiss Ratings raised shares of Geo Group from a "hold (c)" rating to a "hold (c+)" rating in a report on Tuesday, June 9th. Wall Street Zen cut Geo Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Saturday, July 25th. Finally, Northland Securities increased their target price on Geo Group from $30.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock an "outperform" rating in a research note on Friday, June 26th. One investment analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, two have assigned a Buy rating and one has issued a Hold rating to the stock. According to MarketBeat, Geo Group has an average rating of "Buy" and an average price target of $36.50.

Trending Headlines about Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations. GEO reported adjusted earnings of $0.37 per share, above the $0.29 analyst consensus. The company also posted a 10.0% net margin and 9.43% return on equity, indicating solid profitability. The GEO Group Reports Second Quarter Results and Updates Full Year 2026 Guidance
• Positive Sentiment: Full-year 2026 guidance was raised above consensus. GEO forecast earnings of $1.27-$1.32 per share, versus the $1.22 consensus estimate, while revenue guidance of $3.0-$3.1 billion was at or slightly above expectations. The improved outlook suggests management expects continued demand for detention, processing, reentry and electronic-monitoring services.
• Positive Sentiment: Third-quarter earnings guidance also exceeded expectations. GEO projected earnings of $0.35-$0.37 per share, ahead of the $0.30 consensus. Revenue guidance of $755 million-$805 million brackets the $765.1 million consensus, with the midpoint modestly above expectations.
• Positive Sentiment: Potential facility expansion could support future revenue. GEO is posting dozens of jobs as ICE prepares to open a new detention facility in Colorado, signaling potential additional operating activity and capacity. GEO Group posts dozens of jobs as ICE prepares to open new Colorado detention facility
• Negative Sentiment: Fourth-quarter guidance fell below expectations. GEO forecast fourth-quarter earnings of $0.28-$0.31 per share, below the $0.33 consensus estimate. This may raise concerns about near-term earnings volatility or higher operating costs.
• Negative Sentiment: Regulatory and operational scrutiny remains a risk. Lawmakers have demanded answers from ICE and GEO regarding alleged violations at the Moshannon Valley Processing Center. Negative developments could increase compliance costs or create reputational and contract risks. Lawmakers question ICE and GEO Group over alleged violations

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

A number of hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of GEO. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. grew its stake in Geo Group by 245.1% in the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $26,000 after buying an additional 782 shares in the last quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC grew its holdings in Geo Group by 81.9% during the 1st quarter. NewEdge Advisors LLC now owns 1,864 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $54,000 after buying an additional 839 shares in the last quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP lifted its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 122.6% in the second quarter. Militia Capital Partners LP now owns 6,900 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $165,000 after buying an additional 3,800 shares in the last quarter. Guggenheim Capital LLC bought a new position in shares of Geo Group in the fourth quarter valued at approximately $174,000. Finally, Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV grew its stake in Geo Group by 19.3% during the fourth quarter. Mercer Global Advisors Inc. ADV now owns 11,656 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $188,000 after acquiring an additional 1,882 shares in the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group NYSE: GEO is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO's integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO's portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.

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