Mizuho Issues Pessimistic Forecast for Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO) Stock Price

Key Points

• Mizuho cut its price target for Tractor Supply to $50 (from $58) but kept an "outperform" rating, while multiple other analysts trimmed targets — the consensus remains a "Moderate Buy" with a $54.87 average target.
• Q1 results missed expectations (EPS $0.31 vs. $0.35; revenue $3.59B vs. $3.64B) as higher tariffs, transportation costs and elevated SG&A compressed margins, although the company reaffirmed FY2026 guidance of $2.13–$2.23 EPS.
• Shares are trading near their 52‑week low (~$38.8) and recent insider selling (222,348 shares, about $12M in the last 90 days) could weigh on sentiment despite heavy institutional ownership (98.72%).

Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO - Get Free Report) had its price objective decreased by stock analysts at Mizuho from $58.00 to $50.00 in a research report issued to clients and investors on Wednesday,Benzinga reports. The firm presently has an "outperform" rating on the specialty retailer's stock. Mizuho's price objective indicates a potential upside of 28.83% from the stock's current price.

A number of other equities analysts have also weighed in on TSCO. Telsey Advisory Group reduced their price objective on Tractor Supply from $63.00 to $52.00 and set an "outperform" rating for the company in a research note on Wednesday. Weiss Ratings reaffirmed a "hold (c+)" rating on shares of Tractor Supply in a report on Monday, December 29th. Wells Fargo & Company reduced their price target on Tractor Supply from $55.00 to $47.00 and set an "overweight" rating for the company in a research report on Wednesday. Gordon Haskett downgraded Tractor Supply from an "accumulate" rating to a "hold" rating and decreased their price target for the company from $57.00 to $50.00 in a report on Thursday, January 8th. Finally, Truist Financial set a $44.00 price objective on shares of Tractor Supply and gave the stock a "hold" rating in a research note on Tuesday. Fourteen analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and eleven have issued a Hold rating to the company's stock. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $54.87.

Tractor Supply Stock Performance

NASDAQ:TSCO traded down $0.76 during midday trading on Wednesday, hitting $38.81. The company's stock had a trading volume of 6,679,569 shares, compared to its average volume of 7,167,134. Tractor Supply has a fifty-two week low of $38.63 and a fifty-two week high of $63.99. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.70, a current ratio of 1.34 and a quick ratio of 0.16. The firm has a market cap of $20.41 billion, a P/E ratio of 18.69, a P/E/G ratio of 2.39 and a beta of 0.75. The firm's 50 day moving average is $48.23 and its 200-day moving average is $51.52.

Tractor Supply (NASDAQ:TSCO - Get Free Report) last announced its quarterly earnings data on Tuesday, April 21st. The specialty retailer reported $0.31 EPS for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of $0.35 by ($0.04). The business had revenue of $3.59 billion for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $3.64 billion. Tractor Supply had a net margin of 7.06% and a return on equity of 44.36%. The business's revenue was up 3.6% on a year-over-year basis. During the same quarter in the previous year, the firm posted $0.34 earnings per share. Tractor Supply has set its FY 2026 guidance at 2.130-2.230 EPS. Equities analysts anticipate that Tractor Supply will post 2.18 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Insider Buying and Selling

In other news, EVP Jonathan S. Estep sold 59,745 shares of the stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, February 11th. The stock was sold at an average price of $54.03, for a total transaction of $3,228,022.35. Following the transaction, the executive vice president owned 80,931 shares in the company, valued at $4,372,701.93. This trade represents a 42.47% decrease in their position. The sale was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at the SEC website. Also, EVP Colin Yankee sold 11,170 shares of Tractor Supply stock in a transaction on Friday, February 13th. The shares were sold at an average price of $55.35, for a total transaction of $618,259.50. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 45,515 shares in the company, valued at $2,519,255.25. This represents a 19.71% decrease in their position. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. Insiders sold 222,348 shares of company stock valued at $11,959,621 in the last 90 days. Corporate insiders own 0.64% of the company's stock.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Tractor Supply

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in TSCO. JPL Wealth Management LLC acquired a new stake in Tractor Supply during the 3rd quarter worth $28,000. Garner Asset Management Corp acquired a new stake in Tractor Supply during the 4th quarter worth $25,000. Reflection Asset Management acquired a new stake in Tractor Supply during the 4th quarter worth $26,000. Core Wealth Advisors LLC acquired a new stake in Tractor Supply during the 4th quarter worth $27,000. Finally, Aventura Private Wealth LLC acquired a new position in shares of Tractor Supply during the 4th quarter valued at about $27,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 98.72% of the company's stock.

Trending Headlines about Tractor Supply

Here are the key news stories impacting Tractor Supply this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Zacks upgraded TSCO from “strong sell” to “hold,” which may reduce headline selling pressure and signal some near‑term stabilization. Zacks Upgrade
• Positive Sentiment: The company reaffirmed full‑year FY2026 guidance (net sales +4%–6%, EPS $2.13–2.23), giving investors a baseline for recovery if comps and margins improve. BusinessWire: Q1 Results & Reaffirmed Outlook
• Neutral Sentiment: Some sellside firms cut price targets but kept constructive ratings (e.g., Piper Sandler, Wells Fargo, Telsey), so analyst views are mixed — downside risk priced in by cuts, but several still see meaningful upside if execution improves. Analyst Notes (Benzinga) Wells Fargo Coverage
• Negative Sentiment: Q1 results disappointed: EPS and revenue missed, comps rose only modestly (+0.5%), and management cited higher tariffs, transportation costs and elevated SG&A that compressed margins — the core catalyst for the stock decline. MarketBeat: Q1 Results
• Negative Sentiment: Multiple firms trimmed price targets (Morgan Stanley to $45, Wells Fargo to $47, Piper Sandler to $51, Telsey to $52), signalling reduced near‑term confidence and adding selling pressure despite some remaining “overweight/outperform” ratings. Price Target Moves (Benzinga) Telsey / TickerReport
• Negative Sentiment: Significant insider sales and large institutional position reductions noted in recent filings/reports, which can weigh on sentiment until company metrics show clear improvement. QuiverQuant: Insider & Institutional Activity

About Tractor Supply

Tractor Supply Company NASDAQ: TSCO is a specialty retailer focused on products for the home, farm, ranch and outdoors. The company operates a network of physical retail locations complemented by an e-commerce platform, offering a one-stop source of supplies and equipment for customers with rural and suburban lifestyles. Its merchandise assortment targets a range of needs, from animal and livestock care to maintenance, outdoor power equipment, and seasonal products.

Product categories include animal feed and supplies, pet products, fencing and fencing supplies, equine equipment, lawn and garden tools, work clothing and footwear, and small agricultural and outdoor power equipment.

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