NextEra Energy Q1 Earnings Call Highlights

Key Points

• NextEra reported a 10% year‑over‑year increase in adjusted EPS, reiterated 2026 guidance of $3.92–$4.02 targeting the high end, and reaffirmed long‑term targets including an 8% EPS CAGR through 2035 and planned dividend growth (~10% through 2026, ~6% thereafter).
• Florida Power & Light is scaling fast with Q1 capex of about $3.2 billion (2026 FPL capex expected at $12–$13 billion), nearly 100,000 net new customers, and a large‑load pipeline (~21 GW interest, ~12 GW in advanced discussions) that could drive significant incremental capex (~$2 billion per GW).
• Energy Resources had a record quarter, adding 4 GW to backlog (now ~33 GW, including 1.3 GW of storage), secured multi‑year supply and interest‑rate hedges, and was selected to develop 9.5 GW of U.S. gas projects tied to a U.S.–Japan investment arrangement on a capital‑light basis.

NextEra Energy NYSE: NEE opened 2026 with what Chairman, President and CEO John Ketchum called a “terrific start,” as the company posted higher first-quarter adjusted earnings per share and pointed to accelerating U.S. electricity demand across both its regulated Florida utility and its national energy infrastructure platform.

Ketchum said two themes are shaping the company’s strategy: customers “need power now, and speed to power is essential,” and new infrastructure must be built in a way that “addresses affordability challenges and keeps bills low for existing customers.” He argued NextEra’s “common platform”—spanning generation, transmission and gas infrastructure—positions it to meet load growth while keeping costs down.

First-quarter results and outlook

Management said adjusted earnings per share increased 10% year-over-year, reflecting what Ketchum described as “strong financial and operational performance at both FPL and Energy Resources.” CFO Michael Dunne said consolidated guidance was unchanged, with NextEra maintaining its 2026 adjusted EPS expectation of $3.92 to $4.02 and “targeting the high end of that range.”

Dunne also reiterated longer-term targets, including a plan to grow adjusted EPS at a compound annual growth rate of 8% through 2032 and again targeting the same growth rate from 2032 through 2035, based off a 2025 base of $3.71 adjusted EPS. The company continues to expect dividend per share growth of roughly 10% per year through 2026 off a 2024 base, and 6% per year from year-end 2026 through 2028.

Florida Power & Light: customer growth, capital plan, and large-load demand

At Florida Power & Light, Dunne reported first-quarter EPS increased $0.06 year-over-year, with “regulatory capital and growth of approximately 8.8%” cited as a key driver. FPL’s capital expenditures were approximately $3.2 billion in the quarter, and NextEra expects full-year FPL capital investments of $12 billion to $13 billion. For the 12 months ending March 2026, FPL’s reported regulatory ROE is expected to be approximately 11.7%.

During the quarter, Dunne said FPL placed into service roughly 600 MW of solar, bringing its owned and operated solar portfolio to more than 8.5 GW. He added that Florida’s economy “remains healthy,” and that FPL’s average customer count increased by nearly 100,000 versus the prior-year period. Retail sales increased about 3.4% year-over-year; on a weather-normalized basis, sales rose about 0.3%, which Dunne attributed primarily to “continued favorable underlying population growth.”

Ketchum said Florida remains a fast-growing market and described FPL’s 10-year site plan as calling for “roughly 4 GW of new gas-fired generation,” alongside “over 12 GW of solar and over 7 GW of storage solutions over the next 10 years.” He also highlighted bill and reliability metrics, stating that inflation-adjusted residential bills are “20% lower today than it was 20 years ago,” that bills are “approximately 30% below the national average,” and that reliability is “approximately 68% better than the national average.”

On large-load opportunities such as data centers, Ketchum said FPL has “about 21 GW of large load interest,” with “about 12 GW” in advanced discussions and a portion that could begin service “as soon as 2028.” He said the company continues to expect “at least one large load customer to sign up for capacity under FPL’s tariff by the end of the year.” Ketchum added that initially the company expects “every gigawatt of large load under FPL’s approved tariff to be equivalent to roughly $2 billion of CapEx,” earning the same return on equity as other FPL investments.

In Q&A, Dunne said the company has not specified how many gigawatts of large-load service it expects under the tariff, beyond its expectation of finalizing a transaction this year. He also attributed some of the increase in the 2026 CapEx outlook to proactive supply actions—pulling in solar supply at locked-in prices “to remove any trade impacts.”

Energy Resources: record renewables and storage origination, transmission growth

NextEra Energy Resources posted adjusted earnings growth of approximately 14% year-over-year, Dunne said. He attributed the change to several factors:

• New investments contributed $0.04 per share year-over-year, reflecting growth in the power generation portfolio.
• The existing clean energy portfolio contributed $0.01 per share in the quarter.
• The customer supply business decreased $0.04 per share, driven by lower upstream production volume and “continued normalization of margins” in the full requirements business.
• NextEra Energy Transmission increased $0.05 per share year-over-year net of financing costs, driven by the sale of a 50% equity interest in a California transmission asset.

Dunne said NextEra has more than $43 billion in interest-rate hedges and has “planned for potential trade impacts,” noting the company has secured solar panels and battery storage supply through 2029, key domestic wind components through 2027, and transformer capacity “through the end of the decade.”

Operationally, Ketchum said Energy Resources had a “record quarter,” adding 4 GW of new long-term contracted renewables and storage projects to backlog, including 1.3 GW of battery storage origination. Dunne said that with these additions, backlog totals approximately 33 GW after accounting for 0.3 GW placed into service since the prior earnings call. He said about 30% of backlog additions were driven by hyperscalers, with the remaining 70% from power utility customers, including cooperatives and municipalities.

Asked whether the contracting pace reflected acceleration ahead of tax credit roll-offs, Energy Resources CEO Brian Bolster said the company “hasn’t actually stepped into the acceleration yet,” characterizing the quarter as “a reflection of some of the growth that we’ve seen out in the market,” rather than customers pulling forward activity due to tax credits.

On regulated transmission, Ketchum highlighted a recent ERCOT approval for Lone Star Transmission to build portions of two new lines in North Central Texas. He said Lone Star’s investment share of about $300 million represents a roughly 40% increase in Lone Star’s rate base, and that NextEra Energy Transmission has “secured more than $5 billion in new projects since 2023.” Ketchum added the transmission business has “regulated and secured capital of $8 billion.”

Ketchum said Energy Resources’ gas transmission portfolio includes ownership interests in more than 1,000 miles of FERC-regulated pipelines and projected that the combined electric and gas transmission business would grow to $20 billion of total regulated and investment capital by 2032, representing a 20% CAGR off a 2025 base.

Data center hubs, gas generation projects, nuclear updates, and recontracting

Ketchum said NextEra is pursuing a “data center hub strategy,” with more than 30 hubs and a goal to reach roughly 40 by year-end. He described a base-case goal of securing 15 GW of new generation to serve large load by 2035, with an upside case of “30 GW or more,” and said the company is working to meet this goal “with all forms of energy,” approximately 50% from gas-fired generation and the remainder from other sources.

As part of that strategy, Ketchum said the U.S. Department of Commerce selected Energy Resources to build 9.5 GW of new gas-fired generation in two projects (Texas and Pennsylvania) tied to Japan’s $550 billion investment commitment to the U.S. under a U.S.-Japan trade deal. He said the U.S. and Japan would own the projects while Energy Resources would develop, build and operate them. In response to Wolfe Research’s Steve Fleishman, Ketchum said the company was negotiating definitive agreements and aimed to complete them “in the next two-three-month period,” adding that he was “not concerned” about turbine supply.

Barclays’ Nicholas Campanella asked about the financial profile of the Japan-related projects. Dunne said the structure is “capital light” and “essentially zero capital for us,” describing the return as “essentially infinite” given no equity investment, with potential long-term fee streams tied to performance, including ongoing operations and maintenance payments. Dunne added the company wants definitive contracts in place before detailing the value.

On gas generation more broadly, Ketchum told UBS that the industry is ramping from a “standing start,” but he cited labor constraints—particularly the limited number of EPC contractors and competition for skilled trades—as a major factor affecting build speed, along with permitting. “We have got to get permitting reform done in this country,” he said.

On nuclear, Ketchum provided an update on the Duane Arnold plant, saying the Nuclear Regulatory Commission approved a license transfer from minority owners to NextEra Energy, clearing the way for Energy Resources to finalize acquisition of their 30% stake and reach full ownership. He said the plant remains on track to reenter service “no later than Q1 2029.” He also said the company continues to evaluate advanced nuclear and cited “6 GW of SMR co-location opportunities” at existing nuclear sites, while emphasizing that any new nuclear build must include “appropriate risk-sharing mechanisms that limit our ultimate exposure.”

In response to Wells Fargo’s Shar Pourreza, Ketchum said Turkey Point Units 6 and 7 are already licensed and have long been viewed as a “natural gas fuel hedge.” He said NextEra would be “more inclined” to pursue an SMR at Turkey Point rather than an AP1000, and stated the company would not seek to do this with a consortium, citing its own experience and the need to allocate cost-overrun risk among what he called “the four wallets”: the OEM, the developer, the hyperscaler, and the federal government.

Finally, management discussed recontracting of existing assets. Ketchum said NextEra has up to 6 GW of renewables and 1.5 GW of nuclear recontracting opportunities through 2032, and that during the quarter the company contracted “over 600 MW of existing projects” with contracts averaging “over 18 years.” Asked about pricing, Ketchum said new contract pricing represents “roughly a $20 per megawatt hour on average increase” versus prior realized pricing. On the Point Beach nuclear plant, he said there is “a lot of interest,” but he did not identify counterparties and said discussions are ongoing.

About NextEra Energy NYSE: NEE

NextEra Energy, Inc NYSE: NEE, headquartered in Juno Beach, Florida, is a leading clean energy company with both regulated utility operations and competitive renewable generation businesses. The company's principal operating subsidiaries include Florida Power & Light Company (FPL), a regulated electric utility serving customers in Florida, and NextEra Energy Resources, which develops, constructs, owns and operates a large portfolio of wind, solar and energy storage projects. Together these businesses provide electricity supply, transmission and distribution services as well as utility-scale renewable generation and related services.

NextEra's activities cover the full lifecycle of power assets, from project development and construction to operation, maintenance and asset optimization.

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