Does Marriott’s Massive Rally Mean It’s Time to Check Out?

Key Points

• Marriott’s stock has surged more than 50% over the past year and over 140% in five years, significantly outperforming the broader hotel industry, which has risen about 23% over the past year amid strong travel demand.
• While fourth-quarter results were mixed, with EPS missing estimates despite a revenue beat, the company still delivered solid full-year growth, including 4.3% net room expansion, 2% global RevPAR growth, and more than $4 billion returned to shareholders.
• Despite a positive outlook and improving sentiment, the stock is trading slightly above the consensus price target, leaving analysts divided on how much upside remains over the next year.

Marriott International NASDAQ: MAR has had an impressive run, but as shares hover near all-time highs, investors are left weighing whether the momentum will continue or if it's time to check out.

Shares of the hospitality giant are up more than 50% over the past year and more than 140% over the last five years. Much of those gains have been supported by strong travel demand, particularly in the luxury segment, which has lifted the broader hotel space. But even against that backdrop, Marriott's performance has stood out, significantly outpacing the hotel and motel industry, which is up around 23% over the past year.

The positive momentum behind Marriott's stock recently pushed the shares to an all-time high. However, where it goes next is less clear. While Wall Street remains bullish on the space, analysts have mixed views on how much upside remains over the next year.

Marriott Q4 Results: A Small EPS Miss, But Core Travel Trends Held Up

Marriott has reported mixed earnings over the last eight quarters, exceeding expectations four times, meeting expectations once, and missing expectations three times. For the most recent quarter, reported on Feb. 10, the company's earnings per share fell short of estimates, though revenue outperformed.

Marriott reported fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $2.58, up from the previous year's $2.45 per share, but three cents below analyst expectations. Revenue came in at $6.69 billion, up more than 4% year over year and $18 million above estimates.

The quarter capped off a solid year for the company, which in 2025 saw net rooms grow more than 4.3% and revenue per available room (RevPAR) increase 2% worldwide. The company also returned more than $4 billion to shareholders, thanks to its asset-light model, which primarily involves managing and franchising hotels rather than owning the underlying real estate.

The luxury segment remained a big winner for Marriott, as higher-end consumers continued to prioritize travel. By contrast, the more value-oriented select-service segment was a weak spot. Other areas of weakness included Greater China, which was pressured by macro headwinds and softer consumer sentiment, and the business transient segment, which was weighed down by the U.S. government shutdown.

2026 Guidance: Room Growth Accelerates as RevPAR Expands

For 2026, the company said it expects net room growth to accelerate to 4.5% to 5% and projects global RevPAR growth of between 1.5% and 2.5%. Gross fee revenues, it said, could rise 8% to 10% to approximately $5.9 billion to $5.96 billion.

Marriott also said it anticipates adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to be up about 8% to 10% to roughly $5.8 billion to $5.9 billion, along with adjusted diluted EPS growth of 13% to 15%.

Wall Street liked what it heard. Shares rose nearly 9% following the report, closing at around $359. While the stock pulled back in the weeks that followed, trading in the $320s by the end of March, sentiment improved in April, bringing renewed enthusiasm for the stock.

News that Marriott was entering the luxury wellness space through a partnership with Italian company Lefay, along with positive geopolitical developments and four analysts raising their price targets, all likely helped lift the stock. On April 21, shares hit an all-time intraday high of $380.

After the Run-Up: What Analyst Targets Actually Imply

The consensus price on Marriott's stock has risen over the last year. At around $357, it is up from around $314 three months ago, and sharply higher than the year-ago target of around $273. Despite multiple price target increases, the average 12-month target is nearly 1% below the current price.

Analysts are divided on where the stock will head from here. Based on 15 price adjustments over the last year, seven analysts anticipate the stock will decline over the next year, with the lowest price target at $285, roughly 20% below the current price. On the flip side, eight analysts expect the stock to rise, with the highest target of $415 suggesting upside of around 15%.

While overall sentiment on the stock is bullish with a consensus rating of Moderate Buy, analyst ratings are split. Nine have Buy ratings on the stock, including one Strong Buy, and eight have Hold ratings.

Valuation Check: A Premium Multiple With Less Room for Error

Marriott's valuation after such a strong run may cause some investors to question whether the stock is overvalued at its current price. The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 38x, more than double the roughly 18x multiple of the hotel and motel industry.

It is, however, substantially lower than one of its closest competitors, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. NYSE: HLT, which is also an asset-light company.

Hilton, which has also delivered impressive performance, with shares up about 51% over the past year and more than 155% over the last five years, is trading at a P/E ratio of around 55x.

On a price-to-earnings growth (PEG) basis, Marriott is trading at around 3.2x, which is higher than Hilton's 2.9x.

While Marriott remains a high-quality operator with strong fundamentals, with shares near peak levels and trading at a premium to the broader hotel industry, investors may be waiting to see how first-quarter results on May 6 come in before making their next move.