Alumis (NASDAQ:ALMS) Shares Gap Up on Analyst Upgrade

Key Points

• Alumis shares opened higher after HC Wainwright upgraded the stock from “neutral” to “buy,” though it lowered its price target to $15 from $25. The stock opened at $10.16 versus a prior close of $9.47.
• The upgrade followed a setback in the Phase 2b LUMUS lupus trial, which missed its endpoints in the overall population. Alumis plans to pursue a Phase 3 study focused on patients with high interferon gene signatures and remains on track to submit a psoriasis NDA in late 2026.
• Analyst sentiment remains broadly positive, with MarketBeat reporting a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating and an average price target of $34.91, despite recent insider selling and the company’s latest quarterly loss exceeding expectations.

Alumis Inc. (NASDAQ:ALMS - Get Free Report) shares gapped up before the market opened on Wednesday after HC Wainwright upgraded the stock from a neutral rating to a buy rating. The stock had previously closed at $9.47, but opened at $10.16. HC Wainwright now has a $15.00 price target on the stock, down from their previous price target of $25.00. Alumis shares last traded at $10.5690, with a volume of 2,470,158 shares.

Other research analysts have also recently issued reports about the stock. Citigroup reissued an "overweight" rating on shares of Alumis in a research note on Tuesday. Chardan Capital boosted their price target on Alumis from $38.00 to $40.00 and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a report on Tuesday, May 19th. Guggenheim increased their price objective on Alumis from $32.00 to $34.00 and gave the company a "buy" rating in a research note on Friday, May 15th. Morgan Stanley reiterated an "overweight" rating and set a $39.00 price objective on shares of Alumis in a research report on Friday, May 15th. Finally, Robert W. Baird set a $27.00 price target on shares of Alumis in a research note on Tuesday. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, ten have assigned a Buy rating and one has given a Sell rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and an average target price of $34.91.

Insider Transactions at Alumis

In other news, insider Roy C. Hardiman sold 2,692 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction dated Monday, August 3rd. The shares were sold at an average price of $26.37, for a total value of $70,988.04. Following the transaction, the insider directly owned 207,746 shares in the company, valued at approximately $5,478,262.02. This trade represents a 1.28% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which can be accessed through the SEC website. Also, insider Sanam Pangali sold 5,000 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Monday, July 6th. The stock was sold at an average price of $28.00, for a total transaction of $140,000.00. Following the sale, the insider owned 11,111 shares in the company, valued at approximately $311,108. This trade represents a 31.03% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. Insiders have sold a total of 19,953 shares of company stock valued at $534,311 in the last three months. 33.70% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

Key Stories Impacting Alumis

Here are the key news stories impacting Alumis this week:

• Positive Sentiment: HC Wainwright upgraded Alumis from “neutral” to “buy,” citing potential upside from the company’s pipeline. However, the firm reduced its price target to $15 from $25, reflecting the heightened risk following the lupus setback. Benzinga report
• Positive Sentiment: Although the LUMUS trial failed in the overall population, Alumis reported stronger responses among patients with high interferon gene signatures. Management plans to pursue a Phase 3 lupus study in this subgroup and remains on track to submit a psoriasis NDA in the fourth quarter of 2026. Alumis topline results announcement
• Neutral Sentiment: Envudeucitinib was generally well tolerated, with no new safety signals reported. The company also said pharmacodynamic results support the drug’s activity in interferon-driven immune diseases. Reuters report
• Negative Sentiment: The Phase 2b LUMUS study missed both its primary and secondary endpoints in the overall systemic lupus erythematosus population. The failure substantially weakened the near-term lupus opportunity for envudeucitinib and triggered a steep decline in ALMS shares. RTTNews report
• Negative Sentiment: Unusually heavy bearish options activity accompanied the selloff: investors bought 4,619 put options, more than four times typical volume, signaling increased hedging or speculation on further weakness. Trading was also temporarily halted for pending news.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently bought and sold shares of the company. Russell Investments Group Ltd. grew its holdings in Alumis by 320.9% in the 3rd quarter. Russell Investments Group Ltd. now owns 6,419 shares of the company's stock worth $26,000 after buying an additional 4,894 shares in the last quarter. New York State Common Retirement Fund lifted its holdings in Alumis by 173.7% in the second quarter. New York State Common Retirement Fund now owns 11,767 shares of the company's stock worth $35,000 after purchasing an additional 7,467 shares during the period. KBC Group NV bought a new position in Alumis in the 1st quarter valued at about $42,000. Strs Ohio grew its position in Alumis by 300.0% in the 1st quarter. Strs Ohio now owns 2,000 shares of the company's stock valued at $44,000 after buying an additional 1,500 shares in the last quarter. Finally, BNP Paribas Financial Markets raised its position in shares of Alumis by 104.9% during the 3rd quarter. BNP Paribas Financial Markets now owns 11,770 shares of the company's stock worth $47,000 after buying an additional 6,027 shares in the last quarter.

Alumis Price Performance

The firm has a market capitalization of $1.37 billion, a P/E ratio of -2.72 and a beta of -0.80. The firm's fifty day moving average price is $26.20 and its 200-day moving average price is $24.93.

Alumis (NASDAQ:ALMS - Get Free Report) last issued its quarterly earnings results on Thursday, August 13th. The company reported ($1.11) EPS for the quarter, missing the consensus estimate of ($0.77) by ($0.34). Alumis had a negative return on equity of 93.15% and a negative net margin of 5,933.46%.The business had revenue of $1.66 million during the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $3.65 million. Analysts expect that Alumis Inc. will post -2.95 earnings per share for the current year.

About Alumis

Our mission is to significantly improve the lives of patients by replacing broad immunosuppression with targeted therapies. Our name, Alumis, captures our mission to enlighten immunology, and is inspired by the words "allumer"-French for illuminate-and "immunis"-Latin for the immune system. We are a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company with an initial focus on developing our two Tyrosine Kinase 2 (TYK2) inhibitors: ESK-001, a second-generation inhibitor that we are developing to maximize target inhibition and optimize tolerability, and A-005, a central nervous system (CNS) penetrant molecule.

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