Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA) Shares Down 1.2% - Time to Sell?

Key Points

• Moderna shares fell 1.2% to $200.10 in heavy trading, with volume about 70% above average, following a sharp “sell-the-news” reaction to cancer-vaccine data.
• Phase 3 data for Moderna and Merck’s melanoma therapy showed a 42% reduction in recurrence or death risk, but investors viewed the results as below the exceptionally high expectations built into the stock’s recent rally.
• Analyst sentiment remains mixed, with a consensus “Hold” rating and an average price target of $103.95; Moderna also faces ongoing losses, negative margins and substantial insider selling, despite support from its broader vaccine pipeline.

Moderna, Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA - Get Free Report) fell 1.2% on Friday. The company traded as low as $183.00 and last traded at $200.10. Approximately 21,427,765 shares traded hands during mid-day trading, an increase of 70% from the average session volume of 12,638,813 shares. The stock had previously closed at $202.63.

Key Moderna News

Here are the key news stories impacting Moderna this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Phase 3 results for Moderna and Merck’s intismeran autogene plus Keytruda showed a 42% reduction in the risk of melanoma recurrence or death, with favorable distant-metastasis results. Oncologists described the findings as an important advance in melanoma treatment. Moderna mRNA vaccine almost halves the risk of skin cancer returning
• Positive Sentiment: The company’s late-stage bird-flu vaccine trial and continued recognition as a leading biopharmaceutical employer provide additional support for Moderna’s broader pipeline and innovation strategy. Moderna Named a Top Employer by Science
• Positive Sentiment: Analyst support, including a reported TD Cowen view that the stock could rise, may help stabilize sentiment after the sell-off. Moderna Stock Price Expected to Rise, TD Cowen Analyst Says
• Neutral Sentiment: The trial information appeared online ahead of Moderna and Merck’s planned ESMO presentation, briefly intensifying uncertainty and contributing to extreme trading volatility, including a temporary trading halt. Moderna shares plunge after leak of partial cancer vaccine data
• Negative Sentiment: Investors viewed the episode as a “sell-the-news” event: the results were clinically meaningful but fell short of the exceptionally high expectations embedded in Moderna’s recent rally. Questions also remain about the vaccine’s potential beyond melanoma. Moderna sheds about $24 billion as cancer vaccine data triggers sell-the-news retreat

Wall Street Analyst Weigh In

MRNA has been the topic of a number of recent research reports. Weiss Ratings reissued a "sell (d-)" rating on shares of Moderna in a report on Wednesday, September 9th. Singular Research upgraded Moderna to a "hold" rating in a research note on Wednesday, September 23rd. Sanford C. Bernstein reaffirmed a "market perform" rating on shares of Moderna in a report on Friday, September 25th. Rothschild & Co Redburn downgraded shares of Moderna from a "neutral" rating to a "sell" rating and increased their price target for the stock from $40.00 to $81.00 in a report on Thursday, September 3rd. Finally, The Goldman Sachs Group raised their price objective on shares of Moderna from $120.00 to $137.00 and gave the company a "neutral" rating in a research report on Thursday, October 15th. Seven research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating, fourteen have given a Hold rating and four have issued a Sell rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, Moderna currently has an average rating of "Hold" and an average price target of $103.95.

Moderna Price Performance

The business's fifty day moving average price is $170.05 and its 200-day moving average price is $96.24. The company has a market capitalization of $79.89 billion, a P/E ratio of -25.04 and a beta of 1.09. The company has a current ratio of 2.29, a quick ratio of 2.18 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.09.

Moderna (NASDAQ:MRNA - Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Friday, July 31st. The company reported ($1.97) EPS for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of ($2.03) by $0.06. Moderna had a negative return on equity of 28.30% and a negative net margin of 141.43%. The business had revenue of $145.00 million for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $102.93 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm earned ($2.13) earnings per share. The firm's revenue was up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis. As a group, sell-side analysts predict that Moderna, Inc. will post -6.11 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

Insider Activity at Moderna

In related news, CFO Jamey Mock sold 34,836 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Thursday, September 10th. The stock was sold at an average price of $134.49, for a total value of $4,685,093.64. Following the completion of the sale, the chief financial officer owned 59,375 shares in the company, valued at $7,985,343.75. The trade was a 36.98% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available through the SEC website. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. Also, President Stephen Hoge sold 40,294 shares of the company's stock in a transaction that occurred on Monday, September 14th. The stock was sold at an average price of $144.13, for a total value of $5,807,574.22. Following the completion of the sale, the president directly owned 1,525,858 shares of the company's stock, valued at approximately $219,921,913.54. This represents a 2.57% decrease in their position. Additional details regarding this sale are available in the official SEC disclosure. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. In the last three months, insiders have sold 197,251 shares of company stock valued at $33,875,904. Corporate insiders own 10.80% of the company's stock.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Moderna

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently made changes to their positions in MRNA. Evergreen Capital Management LLC bought a new position in shares of Moderna during the third quarter valued at about $437,000. Fifth Third Wealth Advisors LLC bought a new position in shares of Moderna in the third quarter worth approximately $336,000. Ramsey Quantitative Systems bought a new position in shares of Moderna in the third quarter worth approximately $40,000. Credit Capital Investments LLC purchased a new position in shares of Moderna in the third quarter worth $963,000. Finally, Compass Wealth Management LLC purchased a new position in shares of Moderna in the third quarter worth $385,000. Institutional investors own 75.33% of the company's stock.

About Moderna

Moderna, Inc is a biotechnology company that develops medicines and vaccines using messenger RNA (mRNA) technology. Its platform is designed to instruct cells to produce proteins that can stimulate immune responses or support the treatment of disease. The company's research programs span infectious diseases, immuno-oncology, rare diseases, autoimmune conditions and other therapeutic areas.

Moderna's commercial products include Spikevax, an mRNA vaccine for COVID-19, and mRESVIA, an mRNA vaccine for respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in older adults.

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