Vistra (NYSE:VST) Shares Down 2.2% - Here's Why

Key Points

• Vistra shares fell 2.2% to about $130.99 in Tuesday trading, on volume 24% below the average session volume.
• Recent results were strong: quarterly earnings per share of $3.23 and revenue of $6.35 billion beat estimates, while Vistra raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance. Management also pointed to plans for higher cash flow per share through 2030.
• Vistra authorized a $1.5 billion share-repurchase program and increased its quarterly dividend. Potential headwinds include uncertainty around Texas data-center growth and electricity demand.

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST - Get Free Report)'s stock price traded down 2.2% on Tuesday. The company traded as low as $129.30 and last traded at $130.9910. 4,024,047 shares traded hands during mid-day trading, a decline of 24% from the average session volume of 5,314,438 shares. The stock had previously closed at $133.92.

Vistra News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Vistra this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q3 earnings rose 84.6% year over year and revenue increased 27.7%, with stronger power pricing and retail margins driving results. Vistra also raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance, a positive signal for near-term performance. VST Q3 Earnings Beat on Strong Power Pricing, Revenues Rise Y/Y
• Positive Sentiment: Management outlined stronger cash flow per share through 2030, citing the Cogentrix acquisition, power contracts and buybacks. These plans could support shareholder returns, though the company acknowledged demand risks. Vistra Q3 Earnings Call Highlights Cash Flow Plans & Demand Risks
• Negative Sentiment: One report highlights Vistra’s greater exposure to Texas, where political changes could pose challenges for data-center growth. That could weigh on expectations for future electricity demand, an important growth driver for power producers. Vistra and Constellation Both Fell Sharply After the Election. One Has Far More Exposure to Texas.
• Neutral Sentiment: Vistra filed a prospectus supplement under its automatic shelf registration. The filing allows for potential securities offerings but does not, by itself, confirm that an offering will occur; an actual issuance could dilute shareholders. Vistra Files Prospectus Supplement With SEC for Securities Offering

Analyst Ratings Changes

VST has been the subject of several research reports. The Goldman Sachs Group set a $206.00 target price on Vistra and gave the stock a "buy" rating in a research note on Wednesday, August 12th. Lake Street Capital set a $194.00 price target on shares of Vistra in a research note on Tuesday, October 27th. TD Cowen lowered their price objective on shares of Vistra from $222.00 to $221.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a report on Wednesday, August 19th. Williams Trading set a $202.00 price objective on shares of Vistra in a research note on Friday, October 2nd. Finally, UBS Group set a $176.00 target price on shares of Vistra in a report on Wednesday, October 21st. One research analyst has rated the stock with a Strong Buy rating, eighteen have issued a Buy rating, three have given a Hold rating and one has assigned a Sell rating to the company's stock. According to data from MarketBeat, the company has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $202.48.

Vistra Stock Down 2.2%

The company has a current ratio of 0.97, a quick ratio of 0.87 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.87. The stock has a 50 day simple moving average of $143.81 and a 200 day simple moving average of $152.52. The firm has a market capitalization of $43.97 billion, a PE ratio of 22.13 and a beta of 1.37.

Vistra (NYSE:VST - Get Free Report) last released its quarterly earnings data on Friday, November 6th. The company reported $3.23 earnings per share for the quarter, beating analysts' consensus estimates of $2.98 by $0.25. Vistra had a return on equity of 108.68% and a net margin of 11.55%. The firm had revenue of $6.35 billion during the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $6.03 billion. As a group, sell-side analysts forecast that Vistra Corp. will post 8.74 earnings per share for the current year.

Vistra Increases Dividend

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which will be paid on Thursday, December 31st. Shareholders of record on Tuesday, December 22nd will be given a dividend of $0.2310 per share. This represents a $0.92 annualized dividend and a yield of 0.7%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Tuesday, December 22nd. This is an increase from Vistra's previous quarterly dividend of $0.23. Vistra's dividend payout ratio is currently 15.54%.

Vistra announced that its Board of Directors has initiated a share repurchase program on Friday, November 6th that permits the company to buy back $1.50 billion in outstanding shares. This repurchase authorization permits the company to reacquire up to 3.3% of its stock through open market purchases. Share repurchase programs are typically a sign that the company's management believes its stock is undervalued.

Insider Transactions at Vistra

In other Vistra news, CEO James Burke bought 4,465 shares of the business's stock in a transaction that occurred on Tuesday, September 1st. The shares were bought at an average cost of $135.25 per share, with a total value of $603,891.25. Following the completion of the purchase, the chief executive officer directly owned 1,146,352 shares of the company's stock, valued at $155,044,108. This trade represents a 0.39% increase in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the SEC, which is available at this link. Also, EVP Scott A. Hudson sold 44,444 shares of the firm's stock in a transaction dated Tuesday, September 8th. The stock was sold at an average price of $151.82, for a total value of $6,747,488.08. Following the completion of the sale, the executive vice president directly owned 331,137 shares in the company, valued at $50,273,219.34. The trade was a 11.83% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The SEC filing for this sale provides additional information. The transaction was executed under a pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 trading plan. 0.92% of the stock is currently owned by insiders.

Institutional Investors Weigh In On Vistra

Several institutional investors and hedge funds have recently bought and sold shares of VST. BlackRock Inc. bought a new position in shares of Vistra during the second quarter valued at approximately $4,610,496,000. State Street Corp lifted its stake in Vistra by 0.5% in the second quarter. State Street Corp now owns 16,850,452 shares of the company's stock worth $2,672,987,000 after acquiring an additional 79,972 shares during the period. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP boosted its holdings in Vistra by 1.0% in the first quarter. Dimensional Fund Advisors LP now owns 3,436,880 shares of the company's stock valued at $516,616,000 after acquiring an additional 32,982 shares in the last quarter. Bank of America Corp DE bought a new stake in Vistra in the second quarter valued at $468,354,000. Finally, Bank of New York Mellon Corp bought a new stake in Vistra in the second quarter valued at $381,938,000. Hedge funds and other institutional investors own 90.88% of the company's stock.

Vistra Company Profile

Vistra Corp. is an integrated energy company that generates and sells electricity and provides related services to residential, commercial and industrial customers. Its retail businesses offer electricity plans and energy services through brands that include TXU Energy and Ambit Energy. The company owns and operates a diverse generation fleet, including natural gas, nuclear, coal and solar facilities, as well as battery energy storage systems. Its operations serve customers and wholesale power markets across multiple U.S. regions, including Texas and the eastern and central United States.

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