Q2 Earnings Forecast for Geo Group Issued By Noble Financial

Key Points

• Noble Financial cut its Q2 2026 EPS estimate for Geo Group to $0.28 (from $0.30) and published updated forecasts including FY2026 EPS of $1.23 and FY2027 EPS of $1.49.
• Geo Group beat Q1 expectations with $0.29 EPS (vs. $0.19 est.) and revenue of $705M (+16.6% YoY), prompting management to raise FY2026 guidance to $1.15–$1.25, though it flagged possible ICE facility sales that add strategic/execution uncertainty.
• The stock trades around $21 with a consensus target of $34.50 and mixed analyst coverage (2 Buy, 2 Hold); the company has a market cap of $2.81B, a P/E of 10.76, and ~76% institutional ownership.

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO - Free Report) - Equities researchers at Noble Financial decreased their Q2 2026 earnings per share estimates for shares of Geo Group in a research note issued to investors on Thursday, May 7th. Noble Financial analyst J. Gomes now expects that the real estate investment trust will post earnings of $0.28 per share for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $0.30. The consensus estimate for Geo Group's current full-year earnings is $1.18 per share. Noble Financial also issued estimates for Geo Group's Q3 2026 earnings at $0.31 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $0.35 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $1.23 EPS and FY2027 earnings at $1.49 EPS.

Several other research firms have also recently weighed in on GEO. Zacks Research raised Geo Group from a "strong sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday, January 9th. JonesTrading lowered their target price on shares of Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a report on Friday, March 20th. Weiss Ratings reiterated a "hold (c)" rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Friday, March 27th. Finally, Wall Street Zen lowered shares of Geo Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Saturday, February 28th. Two equities research analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have issued a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, the stock presently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $34.50.

Geo Group Stock Performance

Geo Group stock opened at $21.21 on Friday. The stock's 50 day simple moving average is $17.06 and its two-hundred day simple moving average is $16.47. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06, a quick ratio of 2.01 and a current ratio of 1.75. The stock has a market cap of $2.81 billion, a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.76 and a beta of 0.82. Geo Group has a fifty-two week low of $12.51 and a fifty-two week high of $27.90.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings data on Wednesday, May 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.29 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.19 by $0.10. The business had revenue of $705.21 million for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $688.89 million. Geo Group had a return on equity of 9.43% and a net margin of 10.00%.The business's revenue was up 16.6% on a year-over-year basis. During the same period in the previous year, the firm posted $0.14 EPS. Geo Group has set its FY 2026 guidance at 1.150-1.250 EPS and its Q2 2026 guidance at 0.250-0.290 EPS.

Hedge Funds Weigh In On Geo Group

Several hedge funds and other institutional investors have recently added to or reduced their stakes in GEO. Bessemer Group Inc. boosted its stake in Geo Group by 111.9% during the 1st quarter. Bessemer Group Inc. now owns 1,723 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $29,000 after purchasing an additional 910 shares during the last quarter. Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund boosted its stake in Geo Group by 4.6% during the 1st quarter. Illinois Municipal Retirement Fund now owns 74,297 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $1,249,000 after purchasing an additional 3,292 shares during the last quarter. Principal Financial Group Inc. boosted its stake in Geo Group by 2.2% during the 1st quarter. Principal Financial Group Inc. now owns 668,318 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $11,234,000 after purchasing an additional 14,585 shares during the last quarter. Kestra Advisory Services LLC boosted its stake in Geo Group by 2.4% during the 1st quarter. Kestra Advisory Services LLC now owns 30,462 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $512,000 after purchasing an additional 727 shares during the last quarter. Finally, Hodges Capital Management Inc. boosted its stake in Geo Group by 103.7% during the 1st quarter. Hodges Capital Management Inc. now owns 1,128,999 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $18,978,000 after purchasing an additional 574,759 shares during the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is owned by institutional investors.

Insider Activity

In other news, Director Scott Michael Kernan sold 6,633 shares of Geo Group stock in a transaction that occurred on Wednesday, March 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $15.24, for a total transaction of $101,086.92. Following the completion of the transaction, the director directly owned 27,062 shares in the company, valued at approximately $412,424.88. This trade represents a 19.69% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The transaction was disclosed in a document filed with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is accessible through the SEC website. Insiders own 4.98% of the company's stock.

Geo Group News Summary

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted EPS of $0.29 vs. the consensus ~$0.19 and revenue of $705M (up ~16.6% YoY). Management posted an optimistic full‑year 2026 EPS range of $1.15–$1.25 and lifted revenue guidance. This is the primary driver of the stock’s rally. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Street reaction and volume: Analysts and coverage pieces highlighted the earnings beat and raised outlook, which triggered heavy buying and increased volume as short‑term momentum gathered. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Management flagged potential asset transactions: Management discussed possible sales of certain ICE facilities while reiterating 2026 revenue guidance of roughly $2.95B–$3.1B — a development that could be accretive but adds near‑term execution/strategic uncertainty. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Operational and reputational risks from detention facilities: Local reports and investigations (e.g., a UW report on a Washington ICE facility) describe alleged abuses and lowered standards, raising regulatory, litigation and contract‑risk concerns for GEO. Such coverage can pressure valuation and contract renewals. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and political noise: Management’s comments about lawsuits over detention conditions and media coverage of legal challenges increase headline risk; activists and some customers of related institutions have reacted (e.g., bank customer pullbacks), which can affect public contracts and financing sentiment. Read More. • Read More.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group NYSE: GEO is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO's integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO's portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.

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