Research Analysts Issue Forecasts for Geo Group Q2 Earnings

Key Points

• Northland Securities trimmed its Q2 2026 EPS estimate for GEO to $0.27 from $0.28, even as GEO reported an adjusted Q1 EPS of $0.29 (vs. $0.19 consensus) and set FY2026 guidance of $1.15–$1.25.
• Shares opened at $21.21 (down ~4.5%) with a market cap of $2.81B and a P/E of 10.76; analyst coverage is mixed (2 Buys, 2 Holds) with a consensus target price of $34.50.
• Institutional ownership is high at 76.10% with recent hedge‑fund inflows, but GEO faces material operational, legal and reputational risks tied to its detention facilities that could affect contracts and valuation.

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO - Free Report) - Stock analysts at Northland Securities lowered their Q2 2026 earnings per share (EPS) estimates for Geo Group in a report released on Thursday, May 7th. Northland Securities analyst G. Gibas now expects that the real estate investment trust will earn $0.27 per share for the quarter, down from their previous estimate of $0.28. The consensus estimate for Geo Group's current full-year earnings is $1.18 per share. Northland Securities also issued estimates for Geo Group's Q3 2026 earnings at $0.31 EPS, Q4 2026 earnings at $0.32 EPS and FY2026 earnings at $1.19 EPS.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) last released its earnings results on Wednesday, May 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.29 earnings per share for the quarter, beating the consensus estimate of $0.19 by $0.10. Geo Group had a return on equity of 9.43% and a net margin of 10.00%.The firm had revenue of $705.21 million for the quarter, compared to analyst estimates of $688.89 million. During the same quarter in the prior year, the firm posted $0.14 earnings per share. The company's quarterly revenue was up 16.6% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group has set its FY 2026 guidance at 1.150-1.250 EPS and its Q2 2026 guidance at 0.250-0.290 EPS.

Several other equities research analysts also recently issued reports on GEO. JonesTrading lowered their price target on Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a "buy" rating for the company in a report on Friday, March 20th. Weiss Ratings restated a "hold (c)" rating on shares of Geo Group in a report on Friday, March 27th. Wall Street Zen downgraded Geo Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Saturday, February 28th. Finally, Zacks Research upgraded Geo Group from a "strong sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a report on Friday, January 9th. Two analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have assigned a Hold rating to the company. Based on data from MarketBeat, the company currently has an average rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $34.50.

Geo Group Stock Down 4.5%

Shares of Geo Group stock opened at $21.21 on Friday. Geo Group has a 1 year low of $12.51 and a 1 year high of $27.90. The business has a 50-day moving average of $17.06 and a two-hundred day moving average of $16.47. The company has a market capitalization of $2.81 billion, a P/E ratio of 10.76 and a beta of 0.82. The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06, a current ratio of 1.75 and a quick ratio of 2.01.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

Hedge funds have recently modified their holdings of the company. SG Americas Securities LLC grew its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 1,250.5% during the fourth quarter. SG Americas Securities LLC now owns 503,546 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $8,117,000 after buying an additional 466,261 shares in the last quarter. Y Intercept Hong Kong Ltd bought a new position in shares of Geo Group during the third quarter worth about $1,283,000. WINTON GROUP Ltd grew its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 836.6% during the third quarter. WINTON GROUP Ltd now owns 279,982 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $5,737,000 after buying an additional 250,090 shares in the last quarter. Matauro LLC bought a new position in shares of Geo Group during the fourth quarter worth about $1,738,000. Finally, Federated Hermes Inc. grew its holdings in shares of Geo Group by 1,273.1% during the third quarter. Federated Hermes Inc. now owns 293,151 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock worth $6,007,000 after buying an additional 271,802 shares in the last quarter. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by institutional investors.

Insider Activity

In other Geo Group news, Director Scott Michael Kernan sold 6,633 shares of the stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, March 4th. The stock was sold at an average price of $15.24, for a total value of $101,086.92. Following the completion of the sale, the director directly owned 27,062 shares in the company, valued at $412,424.88. This represents a 19.69% decrease in their ownership of the stock. The sale was disclosed in a legal filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available through the SEC website. 4.98% of the stock is owned by company insiders.

Trending Headlines about Geo Group

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted EPS of $0.29 vs. the consensus ~$0.19 and revenue of $705M (up ~16.6% YoY). Management posted an optimistic full‑year 2026 EPS range of $1.15–$1.25 and lifted revenue guidance. This is the primary driver of the stock’s rally. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Street reaction and volume: Analysts and coverage pieces highlighted the earnings beat and raised outlook, which triggered heavy buying and increased volume as short‑term momentum gathered. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Management flagged potential asset transactions: Management discussed possible sales of certain ICE facilities while reiterating 2026 revenue guidance of roughly $2.95B–$3.1B — a development that could be accretive but adds near‑term execution/strategic uncertainty. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Operational and reputational risks from detention facilities: Local reports and investigations (e.g., a UW report on a Washington ICE facility) describe alleged abuses and lowered standards, raising regulatory, litigation and contract‑risk concerns for GEO. Such coverage can pressure valuation and contract renewals. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and political noise: Management’s comments about lawsuits over detention conditions and media coverage of legal challenges increase headline risk; activists and some customers of related institutions have reacted (e.g., bank customer pullbacks), which can affect public contracts and financing sentiment. Read More. • Read More.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group NYSE: GEO is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO's integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO's portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.

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