Sidoti Has Bullish Forecast for Geo Group Q2 Earnings

Key Points

• Sidoti raised its Q2 2026 EPS estimate to $0.28 (from $0.26) and issued multi‑quarter forecasts, while GEO beat Q1 expectations with $0.29 EPS and set FY2026 guidance of $1.15–$1.25, supporting a bullish near‑term outlook.
• Analyst sentiment is mixed but the consensus is a Moderate Buy with a $34.50 target versus a current share price near $21, indicating sizable implied upside.
• Significant downside risks remain from operational, legal and reputational issues at detention facilities and management‑flagged potential ICE facility sales, which add execution and headline uncertainty despite the earnings beat.

Geo Group Inc (The) (NYSE:GEO - Free Report) - Investment analysts at Sidoti raised their Q2 2026 EPS estimates for shares of Geo Group in a research report issued to clients and investors on Thursday, May 7th. Sidoti analyst B. Mccarthy now forecasts that the real estate investment trust will earn $0.28 per share for the quarter, up from their prior forecast of $0.26. The consensus estimate for Geo Group's current full-year earnings is $1.18 per share. Sidoti also issued estimates for Geo Group's Q4 2026 earnings at $0.32 EPS, FY2026 earnings at $1.18 EPS, Q3 2027 earnings at $0.38 EPS and Q4 2027 earnings at $0.40 EPS.

Geo Group (NYSE:GEO - Get Free Report) last posted its quarterly earnings results on Wednesday, May 6th. The real estate investment trust reported $0.29 earnings per share for the quarter, topping analysts' consensus estimates of $0.19 by $0.10. Geo Group had a net margin of 10.00% and a return on equity of 9.43%. The business had revenue of $705.21 million for the quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of $688.89 million. During the same period in the prior year, the company posted $0.14 EPS. The business's revenue for the quarter was up 16.6% on a year-over-year basis. Geo Group has set its FY 2026 guidance at 1.150-1.250 EPS and its Q2 2026 guidance at 0.250-0.290 EPS.

Several other research firms have also commented on GEO. JonesTrading decreased their price objective on shares of Geo Group from $37.00 to $33.00 and set a "buy" rating on the stock in a research report on Friday, March 20th. Weiss Ratings reiterated a "hold (c)" rating on shares of Geo Group in a research report on Friday, March 27th. Zacks Research upgraded shares of Geo Group from a "strong sell" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Friday, January 9th. Finally, Wall Street Zen lowered shares of Geo Group from a "buy" rating to a "hold" rating in a research report on Saturday, February 28th. Two investment analysts have rated the stock with a Buy rating and two have given a Hold rating to the company. According to data from MarketBeat.com, the stock presently has a consensus rating of "Moderate Buy" and a consensus target price of $34.50.

Geo Group Stock Performance

NYSE:GEO opened at $21.21 on Friday. The company has a quick ratio of 2.01, a current ratio of 1.75 and a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.06. Geo Group has a fifty-two week low of $12.51 and a fifty-two week high of $27.90. The stock has a market cap of $2.81 billion, a PE ratio of 10.76 and a beta of 0.82. The firm's fifty day simple moving average is $17.06 and its 200-day simple moving average is $16.47.

Institutional Inflows and Outflows

A number of institutional investors and hedge funds have recently added to or reduced their stakes in GEO. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. lifted its holdings in Geo Group by 245.1% in the 2nd quarter. Geneos Wealth Management Inc. now owns 1,101 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $26,000 after purchasing an additional 782 shares in the last quarter. Bessemer Group Inc. lifted its holdings in Geo Group by 111.9% in the 1st quarter. Bessemer Group Inc. now owns 1,723 shares of the real estate investment trust's stock valued at $29,000 after purchasing an additional 910 shares in the last quarter. IFP Advisors Inc purchased a new position in Geo Group in the 4th quarter valued at about $30,000. Bayforest Capital Ltd purchased a new position in Geo Group in the 4th quarter valued at about $37,000. Finally, Daytona Street Capital LLC purchased a new position in Geo Group in the 4th quarter valued at about $53,000. 76.10% of the stock is currently owned by hedge funds and other institutional investors.

Insider Activity at Geo Group

In related news, Director Scott Michael Kernan sold 6,633 shares of the business's stock in a transaction dated Wednesday, March 4th. The shares were sold at an average price of $15.24, for a total value of $101,086.92. Following the sale, the director directly owned 27,062 shares in the company, valued at $412,424.88. The trade was a 19.69% decrease in their position. The transaction was disclosed in a filing with the Securities & Exchange Commission, which is available at this hyperlink. 4.98% of the stock is owned by corporate insiders.

More Geo Group News

Here are the key news stories impacting Geo Group this week:

• Positive Sentiment: Q1 results beat expectations: GEO reported adjusted EPS of $0.29 vs. the consensus ~$0.19 and revenue of $705M (up ~16.6% YoY). Management posted an optimistic full‑year 2026 EPS range of $1.15–$1.25 and lifted revenue guidance. This is the primary driver of the stock’s rally. Read More.
• Positive Sentiment: Street reaction and volume: Analysts and coverage pieces highlighted the earnings beat and raised outlook, which triggered heavy buying and increased volume as short‑term momentum gathered. Read More.
• Neutral Sentiment: Management flagged potential asset transactions: Management discussed possible sales of certain ICE facilities while reiterating 2026 revenue guidance of roughly $2.95B–$3.1B — a development that could be accretive but adds near‑term execution/strategic uncertainty. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Operational and reputational risks from detention facilities: Local reports and investigations (e.g., a UW report on a Washington ICE facility) describe alleged abuses and lowered standards, raising regulatory, litigation and contract‑risk concerns for GEO. Such coverage can pressure valuation and contract renewals. Read More.
• Negative Sentiment: Legal and political noise: Management’s comments about lawsuits over detention conditions and media coverage of legal challenges increase headline risk; activists and some customers of related institutions have reacted (e.g., bank customer pullbacks), which can affect public contracts and financing sentiment. Read More. • Read More.

Geo Group Company Profile

The GEO Group NYSE: GEO is a leading provider of correctional, detention and community reentry services to government agencies around the world. As a real estate investment trust, the company specializes in the design, financing, development and operation of secure facilities for adult and juvenile offenders, immigration detainees and individuals requiring mental health treatment or substance abuse programming. GEO's integrated service model also encompasses electronic monitoring, rehabilitative programming and post-release supervision aimed at reducing recidivism and enhancing public safety.

GEO's portfolio spans a range of facility types, including medium- and maximum-security correctional institutions, residential reentry centers, mental health treatment units and immigration detention centers.

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